No, in both car examples, the chance is 1/2, unless you include the possibility that someone would select a visible goat. Once you eliminate previous options, you only select between the remaining choices (2).
@hakancarlsson2881 i don't care what mental gymnastics you contort yourself with, and the very end you have a choice between 2 doors and one has a car, therefore you have a 1:2 odds. Period. The first choice had different odds (1:3 or 1:10) , but the second chance was NEVER greater than 1:2. A door you will not select because it has been revealed to have a goat does not transfer its count. If there are only 2 doors probability no longer includes 3 choices.
@@youredumb7938 You are simply wrong. 🤷 There's no gymnastics involved. You had 1/3 chance of picking the correct one. Correct? Which means you will just win 1/3 of the times. Right? Him opening a door doesn't change the fact that you can only win if you happened to pick correctly the first round. Which is 1/3. You can't magically be correct 50% when you pick from 3. You picked 1 out of 3. You win 1 of three. If you play it 3000 times you pick correctly 1000 times whether he opens a door or not. Correct? That leaves 2000 times to when you switch. You are basically choosing between the 1 door you picked or the 2 other doors.
@hakancarlsson2881 no. That does NOT mean "2000 times if you switched". When there are 3 doors and 1 prize you have a 1:3 chance of being a winner. Once 1 door is removed as a choice, there are only 2 doors and 1 prize. Regardless of whether or not you change your selection (or not) your odds on the second round are 1:2. Your odds of being right IMPROVED from 33% to 50%.
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The odds to win the car was 2/3 from the start, because it was guaranteed that you would be offered the switch.
No, in both car examples, the chance is 1/2, unless you include the possibility that someone would select a visible goat. Once you eliminate previous options, you only select between the remaining choices (2).
@@youredumb7938 No? Didn't you watch the video?
@hakancarlsson2881 i don't care what mental gymnastics you contort yourself with, and the very end you have a choice between 2 doors and one has a car, therefore you have a 1:2 odds. Period.
The first choice had different odds (1:3 or 1:10) , but the second chance was NEVER greater than 1:2.
A door you will not select because it has been revealed to have a goat does not transfer its count. If there are only 2 doors probability no longer includes 3 choices.
@@youredumb7938 You are simply wrong. 🤷
There's no gymnastics involved.
You had 1/3 chance of picking the correct one. Correct?
Which means you will just win 1/3 of the times. Right?
Him opening a door doesn't change the fact that you can only win if you happened to pick correctly the first round. Which is 1/3.
You can't magically be correct 50% when you pick from 3.
You picked 1 out of 3. You win 1 of three.
If you play it 3000 times you pick correctly 1000 times whether he opens a door or not.
Correct?
That leaves 2000 times to when you switch.
You are basically choosing between the 1 door you picked or the 2 other doors.
@hakancarlsson2881 no.
That does NOT mean "2000 times if you switched".
When there are 3 doors and 1 prize you have a 1:3 chance of being a winner.
Once 1 door is removed as a choice, there are only 2 doors and 1 prize. Regardless of whether or not you change your selection (or not) your odds on the second round are 1:2.
Your odds of being right IMPROVED from 33% to 50%.