Why the Tories are Running out of MPs
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In this video, we’ll have a look at how government majorities actually work, why the Tories majority has been reduced by so much, and ultimately why such a reduction in the working majority is just not normal for an incumbent government.
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The Tories are discovering a thing called the consequences of their actions
What actions? I would argue their inaction in failing to do things.
They acted to massively increase immigration despite knowing full well their voters wanted the opposite
Consequences of inaction, rather
FNAF pfp, opinion disregarded.
I just wish it happened before they imported millions of disgusting animals.
Sunak losing his seat the next election would be poetic justice.
Richmond is quite a safe Tory seat
It would be the same as Kim Campbell in Canada, except his time as premier would be longer.
@@prodlowd The fact that anyone in the North would vote for the Tories is crackers! The leeches have sucked all investment from the area and then cut them off from HS2, Sunak isn't exactly an inspirational option either.
@@cgt3704*Prime Minister* we have provincial premiers
@@danielanene-akosa531 well i say premier. Deal with it
Why does appearing on I'm a Celebrity lose you the whip but violating COVID restrictions while having an office affair doesn't?
Great point.
This just sounds like a skill issue on their part. Literally, a lot of the new Tory mp’s have no skill or proper experience
Any with talent were booted out for questioning brexit . . .
Truss sounded like an a-level politics student
Lol no @@superhumantrueman
@@adamcummings20 more like a infant school kid
@@kanedNunable Yeah she had this weird giggly cutesy demeanor that would have been charming had she not been a middle-aged woman running a country
I think you are very brave making a video about how big the Conservative majority is, it could have easily changed while you were uploading this.
5:53 you've miscaptioned Jill Mortimer as Christian Wakeford
I thought “wow they’ve changed a lot”
Its getting harder and harder to find politicians that can combine party doners interests and voters interests... The chasm is huge today
well, there are none in the tory party
Poor doners.
That's the eternal problem. Party donors and voter interests rarely align, but you can't really have one or the other.
Why do you want to find such politicians?
party politics is pretty awful when you look at it. The MPs that we vote to represent us are more often representing the party because of the whip. Isle of Man is an interesting anomaly because it has almost entirely independent candidates and there's no concept of a "majority"
Actions have consequences, especially for the two former PMs.
I can even bet ten quid that the Tories might stall the general election date all the way to late Jan. 2025.
I think Rory said that half in jest on the last TLDR podcast. I’m beginning to think that you (and he) might be right.
If they can provoke a Russian attack, as Cameron is trying his best to do, they will just introduce martial law. Then there will be no election.
The optimist in me thought we would have had one with the local elections (to 'prevent' a disaster showing), but now the pesimist in me pretty much feels its going to be Jan and when I hear people on the radio say "we're having an election this year" no, no we're not, we're having one in the next 12 months, but might not be this year.
John Curtise is on a few videos saying that all political experts have agreed for a while it's going to be Oct/Nov, always has been and while I can see his logic, I refer to the first sentence.
@@AngryAnt0 That fake laugh from our dear PM when he was asked about the date for an upcoming election in BBC radio already tells us a lot…
@@roryokane5907 Remember that laugh from our dear PM when he was asked about a date for an upcoming election on BBC radio? Yeah…………
Love a good recap episode before the season finale.
If we only could get a date for when it will air.
The tories are so finished
I wouldnt count your chickens on that one just yet. Very turbulent times ahead
They've still got the majority of the "silver" vote and the rich vote.
@@johnburn8031 they're a minority lol
@@Lando-kx6so maybe, but money is just as important as numbers.
@@OnlineEnglish-wl5rpI would absolutely count my chickens on that, Labour are probably going to win the biggest majority in history
"Back then no one predicted things would end up as they have" - erm wrong - many people, myself included knew Johnson wouldn't last. He's been fired for lying twice and barely kept any job for more than a year or two. I gave him a year but he outlasted my prediction
And in no way was Johnson a strong leader. Quite the opposite, he was - and was well known as - a vacillating opportunist with a pathological phobia of responsibility.
boris the king of the covids and f-ck the laws yes even the ones he made himself.
The Conservative Party is possibly the most successful party in the democratic world as it has remained in existence for centuries and has been in power for most of that time.
The fact that their obliteration - the likes of which we saw in '92 Canada - is very much on the cards at the next election is a damning indictment to just how purely evil they are seen by the general public, especially the young who have bucked the trend that 'the older you get the more Conservative you become'.
The most successful political party, but everything is still somebody else’s fault, apparently.
The tories are anything but conservative
only because of FPTP. most people hate the tories yet they win because the non-cunty vote is split so much.
Funded by the rich, aided by most of the media (also funded by the rich)... can't imagine why they're the most successful. And that's before you look at the boundary changes and introduction of voter ID.
This will hit them nationally whereupon I hope they are able to oust the lefties and return with a proper Tory candidate list. Locally, they still run better councils (with a few exceptions) and that base will serve them well.
The thing is, Brexit was never going to “get done” because the government couldn’t afford to implement it fully and things were always going to get worse and worse for the government because of its self-inflicted gut wound. If anything Covid just covered for the disastrous effects of Brexit and slowed the public’s recognition of what was really going on.
The thing about the Speaker of The House (and deputies) really should be scrapped, how can they properly serve their constituents?
Yes, it's a truly insane system. I can't understand how British voters have tolerated such a thing for so long.
This is the slowest general election in British history.
Correction: @6:42 it wasn’t 2017; it was 2019. Boris did it, not May!
Bump
We can have a labour government before GE at the current rate.
One made up of Tories. Hooray....
The current Tory party seems to have one answer to every problem - which is to move further to the right. Keep doing that and you start leaving people behind. And a lot of them can see the writing on the wall, better to quit on your own terms than be booted.
They have perhaps move right on Redrick, but if you look at what their actual policies have been, they haven’t moved right whatsoever, mass migration has increased over the last few decades, environmental regulation has increased, never mind Covid restrictions and the like, the only sphere in which the conservatives have Perceptively applied right wing political theory is in some aspects of economics.
Hell even the church of England which should ostensibly be a bastion of conservatism, has essentially embraced every aspect of modern leftist cultural orthodoxy.
Looking at the number of people being prosecuted for thought crime on social media, it would not seem as if the conservatives have moved right but rather that their shift to the left has simply not kept pace with the stunning and absolute victory that leftists have had over British culture since the 1960s.
@@allthenewsordeath5772 correct like all commies ours play the long game but with these present day tories who are about as right wing as pol pot they only have to wait a little longer.
You mean further to the LEFT. Fixed it!
First past the post can never be considered a mandate
After hearing about the wrongdoings of so many MPs, I kinda feel bad for the one who lost the whip for watching porn
zero seats, zero mercy!
Tory politische Partei ist kaput?
4:09 lol this guy will never live this down
The reasons for lost seats are hilarious! Greetings from the continent.
Neil Parish, the guy who lost it for watching porn, was a funny one. He claimed that he was looking at the website for the German made Class Dominator model of tractor, but then accidentally clicked a link with "a similar name" and ended up watching tractor porn lol. When MPs first mentioned they'd seen someone watching porn in parliament he did an interview with GB news and said the accused person should be "dealt with seriously" and then like a week later he admitted it was him lol.
@@RealUlrichLeland that certainly sounds much funnier than sexual misconduct.
I feel like a sane person living in an asylum here. I hate it. I don’t care how much the Brexiteers suffer. They voted to be poor. But now I have to live with the consequences of their actions.
@@allergy5634 Hikarious! As if the EU is a thing of permanence and stability.
@@conveyor2it’s not perfect. But the EU isn’t turning into the third world. We are. Everything the remainers said would happen happened. Why can’t so many of you Brexiteers admit that you were wrong. The majority of you have tbf.
Chaucer once said something about 'pigeons coming home to roost..'?
They did then they upped and left there crap behind...
From a majority in 2019 to potentially under 100 MPs in 2024, this needs to be studied as surely must be historic for such a swing in short time
This video reminds me of my reaction to the initial Brexit vote.
In short, I was in denial seeing news clips and stories about how some people voted for Brexit not because they wanted Brexit but either because “they didn’t take their vote seriously” or “wanted David Cameron to resign”.
But after Boris Johnson became prime minister the reality that the majority of Britain wanted Brexit could not be ignored.
Of course it is unknown who would still vote for Brexit if they knew what we know now
Polls have shown that, at their strongest, the quitters have only gotten a plurality of support since the referendum. By 2019, rejecting Brexit was actually more popular - after all, Johnson's Tories got 43% of the vote that year, a large plurality, but nowhere near a majority. Support for Brexit has been consistently exaggerated.
@@williamd2989
Thank you for the facts
I value clear accurate transparency but I can understand why exaggeration is being used, Brexit was voted for so there’s the sunk cost fallacy and there are those who want to reduce any and all resistance against their desire for Brexit to stay
I fail to see why the 2019 election results supports your conclusion. Jeremy Corbyn had spent his entire career in favour of Brexit, while Boris had only ever been in favour of Boris.
@@tulliusexmisc2191
I agree that Boris has only ever been in favour of Boris, he’s the prime minister who only became prime minister and tried staying as prime minister because, from what I have heard at least, he wanted to become prime minister like “become prime minister” was on his bucket list.
What I was trying to say is that going into the 2019 elections, Boris Johnson was viewed as “the party to vote for if you want Brexit done”, or at least that’s how I remember how things were in 2019, so Boris winning that election signalled to me that “oh, most people seem to actually want Brexit”.
Of course this statement lacks evidence and sources so it is possible that I’m talking nonsense but what remains true for me is that before 2019 election I thought “surely a significant amount of people who voted Brexit have changed their minds and want to change their vote” but after 2019 election my thoughts were “oh, looks like most people still want Brexit”.
Fabulous as always!
The thing about a reduction in the government's majority is that it makes it more difficult to pass legislation. In theory if the governing party is unified enough then they can keep on going even into 'minority government' status: look at Labour at the end of the 70s. But the Tories are not unified and a minority in the party who aren't happy about something are going to stir up trouble and discover the joys of blackmail.
And to make it even worse the war for control of the party that will follow the defeat that is now looming has already started with some of the most unlikely people trying to look like a future leader and eventual Prime Minister.
An interesting thing not often mentioned is that, for the first time in like decades. The Labour party will be entering the 2024 elections with more MPs than they had coming out of the 2019 election. 202 MPs to 205
Thank you.
Lee Anderson is reform, he’s not independent
Lee Anderthal is running out of parties to jump ship to. Only greens, Libdems and MRLP left until he completes the set.
@@superhumantrueman thats quite a funny nickname :D
@@anthonylulham3473 I can't take credit for it I am afraid, its how he is refered to in Private Eye. Fits him well though!
The list goes on and on and on. One word comes to mind... sleaze.
Fascinating I hadn't really noticed this, despite paying close attention to politics. But that's not great from a Tory point of view.
4:42 That has got to be some sort of record!
I do not understand why anyone votes Tory. The UK has only done worse year over year under their rule.
Never knew until this video that Sein Fein don't sit in parliament.
I've never understood why they don't. There's been several times when they could have helped Labour form a government, with the promise of having a referendum on Northern Ireland rejoining Ireland.
@@johnburn8031while Labour might be more sympathetic to an Irish referendum, they don't have the right outright to call for a border poll. It would depend on a reasonable understanding that it would be the will of the majority in NI, which current polling is short on, although the figure is rising. It would also come off as imperialistic to SF, as they wouldn't want it "awarded" to them.
@@johnburn8031Because they literally refuse to recognise the authority of parliament and will never swear a loyalty oath to the king or the UK in general
@@johnburn8031 They won't swear allegiance to a foreign government, it would be like Palestinians swearing allegiance to Israel.
Why should they help Labour, Starmer has said he would campaign to keep northern Ireland British in an upcoming referendum when the Good Friday Agreement explicitly states that the British and Irish government must remain neutral.
I didn't say I didn't know why Sinn Fein doesn't sit in Parliament. I mean I don't understand why they aren't being pragmatic about it.
Surely, it would serve their long term goals to engage with Parliament?
Thanks. Now I understand.
Awesome. Brilliant content. Spot on. UK general election in October. Parliament recess yes Thomas. Nephew banker told you truth Thomas. 341 Tory MP's yes.
They suspended the 21 MPs in 2019. Not ‘17
The nation of Scotland only has 57 MPs, so we can do nothing. The toxic UK internal market reform act prevents any Scottish legislation unless it meets English approval.
LOL you literally have your own parliament AND representation and the ability to vote on English affairs in the UK House of Commons. You have the Barnett Formula, free tuition fees, free dental care etc
Your victim conplex is embarrassing
@@OnlineEnglish-wl5rp fr, us English don’t even get a devolved Parliament, yet the Scots have the audacity to blame us for their own failures
@@OnlineEnglish-wl5rpScotland is more progressive than England so don’t blame the Scots for having these measures that increase social equality. Vote in sufficient numbers for someone a bit more progressive in England! England didn’t want regional parliaments when asked. The original point still stands that Scotland has to put up with Brexit and Tory governments basically ‘because England’ (minus most big cities).
@@OnlineEnglish-wl5rp Well said
@@OnlineEnglish-wl5rp a parliament that only has as much power as Westminster allows it. A parliament with no power over international trade, foreign policy or unnecessary military spending. We're stuck with nuclear weapons people don't want here. We're just Westminsters shed. There's more MPs representing London than the whole of Scotland. It's bullshit
they rather please their haters then their voters.
Is Ben a secret Ginger? now that would be a story!
Strong leader 😂😂😂😂
At 5.52 ... That's Jill Mortimer
“Watching porn in the House of Commons” 🥴🥴🥴
What's all the background noise? Have you got builders in or just a creaky chair?
Porn in commons? By the MP of Honiton. Checks out.
Im not a brit and even i dont understand how it took THIS long to get them to anywhere near this point.
If Sinn Fein truly “Rejects British political institutions”, then perhaps they should take the hint and sod off to Dublin. They can’t simply have it both ways.
roll n that dwindling majority!
i'd say it was a management fail... again.
The Tories: The cause of, and the solution to, all of the UK's problems.
That is rishi's logic. Out of recession yay! A economic stagnation caused by austerity and brexit
@@kevinh4869 bull. The Tories are the cause of damn near all our problems. Economic stagnation Tories, cost of living Tories, public services on the verge of collapse Tories, boat crossings Tories.
Blair can be held responsible for Iraq, mainly for believing the US. And his main fault was not undoing all the privatisation under the previous Tory government.
It's in the state it's in because of neoliberalism
The country is in hock to an out of control financial system, is grossly overpopulated, deindustrialised and a net importer of food ~ that was all set in train by Thatcher, then Blair and now the Tories
Right wingers continue to say the nation's finances are like a households. It's the kind of logic which makes people look at this country and laugh]
Wrong. The root of most UK's problems was Thatcher, and I say this as a Rightist.
@@victorpamplona3744 Well her ideology is deeply rooted in the Tory party, so at this point the problem is the Tories for continuing on the route she set. The Tories don’t have to stay on her path, she hasn’t been PM or an MP for decades and she is also dead, the Tories choose to continue on the path.
"A mandate from the people" - with 43.6% of the vote share!
It halved because they didn't do what they said they would do with British autonomy.
4:00 Wow, what a party!
Conservative politician try not to commit sexual assault challenge-difficulty: impossible
@@blackchrysler 😂😂😂
😅what about labour lost of mps and councillors
What happen to the 7 irish constituent that voted for Sinn Fein candidate? Do they still get allowances? And does their constituent receive annual budget from Westminster even their MP not sitting in Parliament? If there is any vote concerning those 7 constituent, who'll be the replacement to voice them? Boy, I'm so curious.. any Northern Ireland people here??
He was not energetic. He was routinely described as lazy. He did not lead them to victory, it was a one issue election. All media for months before hand billed, described and publicised it as the Brexit Election. Labour, The Lib Dems and the Greens ran on a second referendum ticket while the Tories and UKIP ran on a no second referendum ticket. UKIP had lost support by then. The second referrendum vote won the popular vote as it garnered more votes but the vote was split. Thus the Tories won on the less popular no second referendum ticket. They got a substantial majority based on a disproportionate percentage of the vote.
But no... Because journalists and political commentators in this country are so obsessed with peronality and the Westminster Village we must have the fiction the Tories and Boris Johnson were popular which is not exactly true and certainly not the main story.
The reality is that the Red Wall voting tactically, fearing Brexit would be scrapped swung the election because of the absurdity of the first past the post system with no love for the Tories. That wall now continue to change their minds about Brexit.
The reportage of the election should be that it was humiliating for Farage to see the vote share not go in favour of no referendum and humiliating for Johnson to win an election soley based on the second referendum ticket vote being split substantially. The result was down to a split vote and first past the post but becaise the media were obsessed with Johnson they were never going to see what they subconsiously knew.
The real story of the election was that our system was busted by the result and the game was up for politcal journalism as we know it and it was time to be a bit less formulaic particularly among the mainstream broadcast media as their lack of substantial reportage and their concentration on froth delivered the result.
Instead of holding their hands up they choose to believe the myth that Johnson won it.
It was a victory only for first past the post and a less popular choice not being split between three or more parties.
Someone defected to the Tories?
That must be a nice ship, since it can still draw people in while sinking this badly
*Replacing the Tories with Red Tories, you won't notice much change under Tory Starmer.* 🇬🇧🇪🇺
What's the point in voting for a conservative party that doesn't conserve anything
And Fools in there Millions believed His ,The same as they Believed Tories were there for All the People.
One additional thing you could mention is the number of Tory MPs who have already declared they will stand down at the next election, as most of those seats are unlikely to stay Tory afterwards.
Andrew Bridgen losing the whip is an absolute scandal, he seemed to be the only tory MP who actually cared about the public’s health and wellbeing
Really a Tory that actually cares about his fellow man acrare find
Never EVER trust any tory!
I'm not betting on a huge loss for the Tories as yet. Quite a lot can and probably will go wrong with Keir Starmer, which is a rather uninspiring leader.
TLDR D&D campaign when?
Reform UK ✅
Short Answer: It's their KARMA, After what Actions they made.
If you were Sunak, what are you gonna do? Commence General Election now -> lose seat, losing majority, probably axed from party leader
General Election later -> also losing seat, losing majority, probably axed from party leader 🤷🏼♂️
5:53 I don't think that's Christian Wakeford
Sunak never won a seat other than his whatever area/district. He should not be a PM. He never should've been one. His "win" as PM is the classic display of nonsense politics. Some dirty politicians voting him to keep their seats. The British people never had a say ergo he never won. He has no mandate.
The people wanted an election after the crash landing of Truss. Instead this barely English man bulldozed his way into the office. With no shame. I would not sit in that office if I did not have the backing of the British people. Which is what he should've tried to convince.
I refuse to call Sunak a PM simply because he never won an election by the people. He is an MP. Just not Prime Minister.
Politics is usually a lot more superficial then meets the eye, The torries had a winning ticket with Johnson but after removing him from power they fell in to the age old crisis of leadership, presenting forward very weak personalities who after a draw-down from a strong leader to a weak one made the voters feel let down, and so they in large numbers have abandoned the party all together. This is not about the Tories but about the man at he top, about personalities. As I said, it is a lot more superficial than people give credit.
Sunak said the local (devastating) elections result was a disappointment, but he's "getting on with the plan and doing what the public asked us to do" 😕😕
Livin in a country that can hardly be gouverned by a coaltion of three parties or of the two biggest ones it's still amazing to see a single party with a majority
Ship is sinking......
Surely allowing recall will make this trend more common than not going forward?
I'm really really good at quick math...
...i still don't understand those numbers
Only the speaker has to drop their party affiliations. My local MP is Roger Gale and he’s still a Tory and will still contest the election with other Parties.
Commons seats graphic didn’t change
Vote Lib Dem!
Sounds like democracy working as intended tbh
You can't count MPs that have had the whip withdrawn!
With the obvious exceptions of cases where the MP lost the whip for the way they voted, there is no reason to assume that whipless MPs would vote against the government, which is the only relevant reason be concerned about the majority in the first place.
Also, the first graphic is wrong, when you showed the majority of 80, only 70 blue dots were separated from the rest.
you must have a lot of time on your hands
@@grimaffiliations3671 Forming an opinion doesn't take up that much of my time. Nor does spotting a fairly obvious mistake.
@@noneofyoubusiness4895 the graphic you're complaining about wasn't the first graphic
There is also no reason to assume whipless MPs would vote *for* the government. If members always voted the party line, there wouldn't be any need for whips.
5:48 that's not Christian Wakeford...
I think the main issue for the Tories is that they didn't plan for what happens after Brexit. Voting to leave was the easy part. They didn't plan for what happens next. If everything was sorted out BEFORE the referendum (i.e. trade deals, Northern Ireland, the NHS, etc.)
The big brother party of surveillance.
Tory voters liked Bunter and hate the runt. Simples.
0:30 It's not quite true that nobody predicted how things would end up back in 2019. I can do a smug told-you-so but really, the signs were clear for anyone to see and it's rather worrying that so many journalists and commenters and other experts missed them and were carried away by the hype.
We need proportional representation meaning Parliament would actually reflect the British people.
Instead of either having red or blue in which are actually purple as there no difference between them two sides on the same coin. Conservatives Left Wing and Labour Left Wing we pretty much live in a dictatorship Britain is a Police State.
I disagree that no on predicted things would end up this way with Johnson becoming PM. People were predicting it even before Brexit was voted on. What they didn't expect was the scale of disarray
Of all the words that mean different things depending on which side of the pond you’re on, “majority” might be the most irritating.
The party of elderly voters is running out of old men and women to represent it, it seems. They might need to start contemplating the possibility of fielding young candidates... Oh the horror!
5:52 fuck me, christian wakeford has changed!
They don't want to work under the coolies...
OH NO!....In other news.....
Funny enough just came from a video about the rap. In parlament and how the victims are excluded while even when a police investigation is started the rapst stays
4:03 take a moment to just appreciate this list
The loosing the whip list is wild
4:11 whats the problem with that?
Good video but considering this channels focus on honest accounts Im disappointed you havent discussed mean reversion in this video.
Yes the tories are doing badly but its not a fair comparison to previous declines in majority because they started from such a great position they always had a lot to lose