While his philanthropy is admirable, Grantham's recent market prognostications have been disastrous for investors who might have followed his advice. As one of many examples, in an October 5, 2023 Bloomberg "Merryn Talks Money" podcast interview (i.e. about one year ago), Grantham marshaled up the usual Shiller P/E and mean reverting profit margin arguments and predicted the S&P 500 (then about 4,225) would likely fall to 3,000. He additionally mentioned 2,000 as possible with certain conditions. Today it's 5,782. GMO has a long history of playing chicken little. Indeed, go back to the April 2015 edition of Morningstar's Fund Investor newsletter (with the S&P 500 at 2,067) and you'll see a headline indicating that GMO's Ben Inker "Sees Dark Skies Ahead."
Wow, very interesting and a lot to unpack here! I agree the threats of climate change will have a profound impact world-wide on future markets, investments, and humanity. Hopefully, world leaders and elected officials start realizing and addressing these existential threats in a meaningful and timely manner. Not to mention we all need to do our part helping to live in a more eco- friendly way and be aware of products that are health risks and harmful to our environment. Lastly, I'm not sure how one's investment portfolio should be structured other than stay the course with a well diversified low cost indexing which will self-adjust overtime in our capitalist free-market economy.
Jeremy Grantham, another successful capitalist who, once he is rich beyond the reach of hard times, castigates other capitalists for making money at the expense of the poor laborer. I’m not sure he adds value to our understanding of the current situation.
While his philanthropy is admirable, Grantham's recent market prognostications have been disastrous for investors who might have followed his advice. As one of many examples, in an October 5, 2023 Bloomberg "Merryn Talks Money" podcast interview (i.e. about one year ago), Grantham marshaled up the usual Shiller P/E and mean reverting profit margin arguments and predicted the S&P 500 (then about 4,225) would likely fall to 3,000. He additionally mentioned 2,000 as possible with certain conditions. Today it's 5,782. GMO has a long history of playing chicken little. Indeed, go back to the April 2015 edition of Morningstar's Fund Investor newsletter (with the S&P 500 at 2,067) and you'll see a headline indicating that GMO's Ben Inker "Sees Dark Skies Ahead."
Wow, very interesting and a lot to unpack here! I agree the threats of climate change will have a profound impact world-wide on future markets, investments, and humanity. Hopefully, world leaders and elected officials start realizing and addressing these existential threats in a meaningful and timely manner. Not to mention we all need to do our part helping to live in a more eco- friendly way and be aware of products that are health risks and harmful to our environment. Lastly, I'm not sure how one's investment portfolio should be structured other than stay the course with a well diversified low cost indexing which will self-adjust overtime in our capitalist free-market economy.
Jeremy Grantham, another successful capitalist who, once he is rich beyond the reach of hard times, castigates other capitalists for making money at the expense of the poor laborer. I’m not sure he adds value to our understanding of the current situation.