Thanks for sharing your performance. I'm in the same boat. I used to have 17% annual returns between 2016 and 2012 but i got killed in 2021-2022 by holding BABA and ASOS as big positions. So now I'm back to being just ahead of the S&P and hoping to outperform again.
Thanks for sharing also! Yeah BABA has been my worst investment ever measured in $, but it’s gone down in allocation through price declines and just adding savings to the portfolio
Thank you for answering my question and many other interesting ones. I will have to think about ROE not being very relevant if you don’t know how to allocate the money. Which Buffett book did you mention on analyzing financial statements? Anyway, thanks very much for giving your thoughts on serial acquirers. Currently in a bit of a rabbit hole on those. ;) cheers from Belgium
Thanks Tom another very interesting video! Personally, I have been trounced by the S&P500 in the last 5 years, all thanks to my BABA disaster. I was in before Munger in 2020 and it has been the worst stock to own ever. I still hold it but I pray for the day I can kill it and run... I know every bull argument there is and they are all irrelevant. Valuation, Moat, Cloud leadership... all of it means nothing for this company. I study China in depth (every single day in fact haha) and the US/China tensions are the worst they've been in 70 years and likely only gonna get worse (this could be a total tragedy later this decade but at that point my stock won't matter haha)... Either way BABA is a total dud despite it's valuation. It pains me to say it because I've defended it for 3 years endlessly but the bears were completely right. I'll hold it anyway but the original notions of it being a 10 bagger (I know hilarious right? Bu this was a legit call 3 years ago based on fundamentals) are long dead. As soon as I hit anywhere close to a reasonable loss I'm out. Also Charlie talks out of both sides of his mouth very often, in his Daily Journal Q&A he at one point talked about why it's ok to have even 200% margin when you have a 'sure thing'... Well as BABA has pointed out there is no such thing as a sure thing. and if he had gone into that with an egregious amount of leverage he would've caused DJ a lot of problems... Also he talked nonsense about BABA being a 'retailer' yet his favourite company is CostCo. i'm getting sick of the double standards. I also don't believe in concentration anymore. I now believe in mild diversification, proper allocations and no 'Sure things' anymore. F&*k grabbing it with both hands... Survive the stock market and you'll do just great. OK sorry for the rant but eh yeah tis what tis
I would say people are now overreacting to what Charlie is saying it just not as good a business as he thought. The returns are likely to be quite reasonable over the long term excluding the risk of China confiscating NYSE listing which seems unlikely if world trade continues with China though I prefer other investments to this especially in small caps.
Tom curious if you have listened to Jeremy Grantham with his estimation that S&P 500 is highly over valued which would be strong argument for not holding world index as it is heavily weighted to S&P 500
Hi Tom, thanks for sharing portfolio performance. I agree with the way you think about your track record and time in the market. Similarly to you I bought my first stock in mid 2018 so I’m just reaching the 5 year mark and I’ve modestly out performed the S&P 500. Interestingly enough my best performing stocks gain, has made up for all my losses in $ terms. As always enjoying your content!
There are other holdings, yes, but nothing too obscure. The sizing of those has been very important and I’ve bought Thor in particular at much lower prices a few times in the past year. The record would be much better without BABA 😅
@@InvestingwithTom I guess we all would have a better record without Baba. Haha yeah I remember Thor was a early position. Still it came down a lot again. But I see it's up again :) haha vola is your friend!
@@RetroRanger yeah, I added to THO a lot in the high 60’s (pure luck that it didn’t get much lower) last year. That’s helped the money weighted returns considerably
@@InvestingwithTom haha the good investor knows that's it's impossible to time the bottom. But that does not mean we can get lucky :). I managed to tick the exact bottom of Baba in the 60s back then :D
I find it interesting that everyone praises Apple. It's obvious it's a great company, but it's also obvious how overpriced it is. When everyone is high on some sort of trend, the prevailing thought is that it can only go up. I calculate confidence intervals for multiple ratios over 10 and 5 year periods. Even considering the rosiest of scenarios for earnings and FCF, a multiple contraction even to the lower end of these confidence intervals will catch a lot of people by surprise. I am sure it will happen.
I think Munger's mistake with Baba was timing and not in buying a "g.d. retailer" because he well knows that the company is far more than a retailer. When he made that statement he well-knew that he'd be misleading people.
I think he didn't mean it quite in the sense of its just a retailer but instead that he misaccounted for the growth rate and resilience of the other segments like cloud
Thank You for taking the time to answer my question.
Thanks Tom. Another great video.
If you could get Phil Town would be pretty cool ahah
Would be very interested to see your opinion on Himalayas current biggest positon (as far as publicly known ones) on Postal Savings Bank of China
Thanks for sharing your performance. I'm in the same boat. I used to have 17% annual returns between 2016 and 2012 but i got killed in 2021-2022 by holding BABA and ASOS as big positions. So now I'm back to being just ahead of the S&P and hoping to outperform again.
Thanks for sharing also! Yeah BABA has been my worst investment ever measured in $, but it’s gone down in allocation through price declines and just adding savings to the portfolio
@@InvestingwithTom same here. but I still hold BABA and Tencent.
@do you have a Discord server, if no
When are you planning to have one, it's a good platform where you can teach ❤❤❤
Please ask dev kantasria from valley forge capital to come on your show. I like his thoughts on investing, a focused , quality, concentrated investor.
@InvestingwithTom_. No thanks appreciate it.
Thank you for answering my question and many other interesting ones. I will have to think about ROE not being very relevant if you don’t know how to allocate the money. Which Buffett book did you mention on analyzing financial statements? Anyway, thanks very much for giving your thoughts on serial acquirers. Currently in a bit of a rabbit hole on those. ;) cheers from Belgium
Warren Buffett and The Interpretation of Financial Statements - David Clark & Mary Buffett
@@InvestingwithTom Thank you, just bought it.
Thanks Tom another very interesting video!
Personally, I have been trounced by the S&P500 in the last 5 years, all thanks to my BABA disaster. I was in before Munger in 2020 and it has been the worst stock to own ever. I still hold it but I pray for the day I can kill it and run... I know every bull argument there is and they are all irrelevant. Valuation, Moat, Cloud leadership... all of it means nothing for this company.
I study China in depth (every single day in fact haha) and the US/China tensions are the worst they've been in 70 years and likely only gonna get worse (this could be a total tragedy later this decade but at that point my stock won't matter haha)... Either way BABA is a total dud despite it's valuation. It pains me to say it because I've defended it for 3 years endlessly but the bears were completely right. I'll hold it anyway but the original notions of it being a 10 bagger (I know hilarious right? Bu this was a legit call 3 years ago based on fundamentals) are long dead. As soon as I hit anywhere close to a reasonable loss I'm out.
Also Charlie talks out of both sides of his mouth very often, in his Daily Journal Q&A he at one point talked about why it's ok to have even 200% margin when you have a 'sure thing'... Well as BABA has pointed out there is no such thing as a sure thing. and if he had gone into that with an egregious amount of leverage he would've caused DJ a lot of problems... Also he talked nonsense about BABA being a 'retailer' yet his favourite company is CostCo. i'm getting sick of the double standards.
I also don't believe in concentration anymore. I now believe in mild diversification, proper allocations and no 'Sure things' anymore. F&*k grabbing it with both hands... Survive the stock market and you'll do just great. OK sorry for the rant but eh yeah tis what tis
I appreciate the thoughts! BABA has definitely punished my returns too. Luckily some larger holdings have picked up the slack a bit
I would say people are now overreacting to what Charlie is saying it just not as good a business as he thought. The returns are likely to be quite reasonable over the long term excluding the risk of China confiscating NYSE listing which seems unlikely if world trade continues with China though I prefer other investments to this especially in small caps.
Please do you have a Discord server where you can teach
What are your thoughts on baidu? Its lead in AI in china seems promising.
Chinese shit not seem to move likes of baba, nio
Tom curious if you have listened to Jeremy Grantham with his estimation that S&P 500 is highly over valued which would be strong argument for not holding world index as it is heavily weighted to S&P 500
Haven't heard him specifically talk about it, but it's a good argument for dollar cost averaging I'd imagine
Hi Tom, thanks for sharing portfolio performance.
I agree with the way you think about your track record and time in the market.
Similarly to you I bought my first stock in mid 2018 so I’m just reaching the 5 year mark and I’ve modestly out performed the S&P 500.
Interestingly enough my best performing stocks gain, has made up for all my losses in $ terms.
As always enjoying your content!
Interesting, with Baba, SRG, A2 and Thor, the S&P should not be beaten in the last 3 years. Some Hidden treasures ?
There are other holdings, yes, but nothing too obscure. The sizing of those has been very important and I’ve bought Thor in particular at much lower prices a few times in the past year. The record would be much better without BABA 😅
@@InvestingwithTom I guess we all would have a better record without Baba. Haha yeah I remember Thor was a early position. Still it came down a lot again. But I see it's up again :) haha vola is your friend!
@@RetroRanger yeah, I added to THO a lot in the high 60’s (pure luck that it didn’t get much lower) last year. That’s helped the money weighted returns considerably
@@InvestingwithTom haha the good investor knows that's it's impossible to time the bottom. But that does not mean we can get lucky :). I managed to tick the exact bottom of Baba in the 60s back then :D
@@RetroRanger love it
I find it interesting that everyone praises Apple. It's obvious it's a great company, but it's also obvious how overpriced it is. When everyone is high on some sort of trend, the prevailing thought is that it can only go up. I calculate confidence intervals for multiple ratios over 10 and 5 year periods. Even considering the rosiest of scenarios for earnings and FCF, a multiple contraction even to the lower end of these confidence intervals will catch a lot of people by surprise. I am sure it will happen.
Yeah, it wasn't a comment at all on valuation - more the power of the brand and ability to reinvest at high rates. It's no 2016 valuation wise!
Apple's is a great company but at 3 trillion valuation 😢??
Yeah, I think the secret might be out haha
People said that when it hit 1 trillion. It's tripled since then!
I think Munger's mistake with Baba was timing and not in buying a "g.d. retailer" because he well knows that the company is far more than a retailer. When he made that statement he well-knew that he'd be misleading people.
I think he didn't mean it quite in the sense of its just a retailer but instead that he misaccounted for the growth rate and resilience of the other segments like cloud
Think Charlie is referring to pricing power with JD power becoming a serious competitor & the govt putting restrictions on Ali Baba.