Are you eyeing any companies to invest in? And if so, do they meet all of these qualifications? Leave a comment below. Get my guide that explains the 5 Long-Term Advantages to Look for in Business Investments sent straight to your inbox: bit.ly/3dajgVS
Phil, thanks for your work and for sharing your learning with others. I'm a pastor in a small town in Iowa, so I appreciate our mutual Iowa connection. Companies I'm looking at during future drops: MSFT, SQ, LULU, POOL, RACE, FAST.
I am already at a loss of 25% and usually, I wouldn't think about selling at a loss but Mercer has taken a lot more debt than I would like and MOMO is a Chinese online entertainment company with a very good balance sheet as far as I can see but the story of our relations with China are ever-changing which is why I am worried. thank you.
Thanks for your tip! I was researching some telecom companies and went checking their buyback history when reminded by this video. Man, some companies' management did trigger a big alarm! I feel bad that it seems some foreigner telecom companies look healthier than ours...
Thank you, Phil! This is SUCH a great talk. You taught me about debt back in 2007 and I applied those principles to my small business and grew my businesses to great success. Now that I'm exiting and ready to invest in the market, I obviously need to apply the same principles when investing in companies where I am NOT the manager :) So obvious now that you've pointed it out!!! THANK YOU!!
Waiting in cash doing exactly everything you are saying. Hopefully this pays off. Been pretty much in cash since I did your workshop in Ottawa in 2018 which was outstanding. Shiller and Whilshire massively high and extremely difficult to find anything with a MOS . Long time to be in cash but I will stay disciplined just as you instructed. Thanks for everything Phil.
I always look for debt free companies - as the master says ‘if you’re stupid you shouldn’t have it and if you are smart you shouldn’t need it.’ Great video as always! Thank you.
What I take from this is, value is what's important, not just price. GREAT VIDEO. In a confusing ocean of information that is the 'net, Phil's teachings are my anchor. His workshop was the best investment of time I ever made, which led to me making great financial investments. Thanks Phil!!
Excellent video! Looking for the risks and warning signs is so important when investing. It is very important we consider debt, interest coverage, competitive moat, liquidity, and free cash flow. I am really happy to hear you talk about free cash flow because so few people seem to discuss that. Credit ratings can also be helpful and buying at or below fair value is so important.
@@PhilTownRule1Investing most definitely! I love your videos and all of the information you provide. Too many people focus entirely on price and whether they think it is "expensive."
thank you so much Phil👌yes, I am eyeing now some companies with zero debt. I am really so grateful to be part of your workshop last June in Atlanta. at least a good timing for me to meet you. big thank you again and regards to Melissa.
Thanks Phil for another excellent video. I really appreciate how you methodically break down and explain the ins and outs. It is good to find a voice of reason in the noise that youtube presents! Stay safe and keep up the good work!
My vision is that things will never be like we can imagine. you will wait for your crash forever. look up for opportunity and invest while you can, dont not wait with cash 100%
despite the drop optimism is still very high and the move is actually more bullish than bearish and without any doubt Bitcoin will rally up to $15,000 again , especially since weak hands seems to have putted out giving buyers a go at the market .the clear route now is to build a really strong portifolio and belvinscott tradings platform has proved beyond reasonable doubt to be one of the best trader and signals provider in the space .I subscribed to his services signals and alert ,and I was able to turn in over 20 bitcoins as profit in less than two weeks , starting from just 1.8 BTC .the best tutors do not just give theories but would guide you through demonstration and this helped me become a much better and productive successor than ever before.belvin Scott tradings Services are one of the few helping traders .stay in profit .you can always connect belvinscott tradings platform on WhatsApp +17146432108 .
I believe you mentioned before that you were changing your calculators to work off of free cash flow. Has this been done yet? Thanks for the great videos and podcast!
I already bought the book Number 1 investing. I just love it! I read the Inteligent investor by Benjamin Graham and I have to say it was quite difficult for a beginner or it contained too much information wich much of it I was not interested in like options, bonds etc. I just have to sell that your book is amazing! Thank you Phil!!! I will totaly recommend your channel!
I'd be very interested to hear your assessment of PK (Park Hotels and Resorts). It's a difficult one for me to evaluate because of their high-debt and the nature of their business (hotel Real Estate with multiple Hotel chains) but they could possibly be considered as having a big moat as you can't simply replicate their portfolio. I believe their previous debt was also due to their expansion. The results of my cash flow and debt calculation wasn't good! Very keen to hear your thoughts on them!
Thanks for the great video as always Phil! Just a quick question, if they buy back shares when they are not cheap, doesn't it mean we as the owner/investor get more money out of it and that is good for us in a sense too? Although yes I get your point that it might mean the management is not as strategic in terms of their decision making.
The first half of his workshop goes into it more deeply. The second galf is about option strategies which can be helpful too. His online training classes are pricey but puts it all together. The toolbox subscription comes in quite handy too.
Thank you, Phil, for all your great teaching. I totally agree, that there wouldn't be much on sale right now, after we are almost back where we were in February, however, you say it is all very deflationary right now. Are we not seeing this inflation right now on the stock market? Are we not seeing how Mr. Market is accepting a lot higher cyclically adjusted P/E ratios due to the low interest rates, the flooding of the market with money and no alternative to invest in?
despite the drop optimism is still very high and the move is actually more bullish than bearish and without any doubt Bitcoin will rally up to $15,000 again , especially since weak hands seems to have putted out giving buyers a go at the market .the clear route now is to build a really strong portifolio and belvinscott tradings platform has proved beyond reasonable doubt to be one of the best trader and signals provider in the space .I subscribed to his services signals and alert ,and I was able to turn in over 20 bitcoins as profit in less than two weeks , starting from just 1.8 BTC .the best tutors do not just give theories but would guide you through demonstration and this helped me become a much better and productive successor than ever before.belvin Scott tradings Services are one of the few helping traders .stay in profit .you can always connect belvinscott tradings platform on WhatsApp +17146432108
I have taken some money and invested in large Bank Stocks. JPM, BK, BAC. Also SYF. They all have much more cash than debt. Therefore I guess Debt free? At this time it looks like the Federal Reserve is providing loans to many companies to keep them afloat and the loan losses by these banks could be well handled. (Hopefully). What do you think?
Thank you Phil for these videos packed with educational investing information, they really help me to become more proactive and aware of my financial needs for the future. Thanks again for your generosity, you are a stand up guy!
With all of the recent stock price meltdowns, it's very tempting to jump in and "buy the dip". Any thoughts on jumping in now vs. waiting a while longer? Assuming you've researched the companies you're going to invest in. I realize timing the market is impossible but if I'm in it for the long haul (about 15 to 20 years), why wait?
Some great companies did go on sale and have bounced back enough to be too expensive. From what I gather most Rule One followers only got somewhat invested in the quick crash and are now waiting to see if the economy will tank the markets in a more slower way like most recessions have been.
How can I find out if a company's management team is buying back their own stock at too high prices? Does that show up on one of their filing reports? If so, which one?
Phil it seems like your really looking to get into a strong cash position and be ready for the downturn. How much of a portfolio would you like to see as cash to be ready for this downturn? 30% 50%? Thanks for all your help, debating spending the money on the 3 day seminar in June!
Thanks alot for another good bit Phil, I've been listening and reading your books for years. I look at Ballard Power Systems, Vivint Solar, EAM Solar, and Coeur Mining, all but the last are in need of a huge pullback for me to buy though. The last 12 months I've liquidated my tour bus company (voluntarily and in a controlled fashion), and am 100% in cash, with no debt on my house. History sure was backwards this time though: when China caught a cold, the whole world got corona!
Nice channel !!! Good suggestion!!! Grate idea about investing!!! Hope we all will pus over corona time!!! Good luck for everyone who is trying to start investing. Like me !!!
The vast majority of my investments are in a company 401k with Fidelity. I agree that the markets will probably take a tumble again, but that brings up a hugely-important question that no one has been able to answer for me. A company 401k typically has a limited number of funds to pick from. Mine is in a 2025-targeted retirement fund. Of course, even though I saw this previous downturn coming from a mile away, I didn't learn in time how to "park" my 401k's funds into the safest possible fund choice to avoid the worst of the downturn. Is there a smart way of doing this? Is it simply by doing research to see which funds have more of the cash-based assets? I'm really surprised I haven't been able to find anyone talking about this particular subject considering that so many people should probably be doing this to avoid a major portion of the losses.
Hi Brad, I just did this today in my 401k. In your plan, go to your investment selections and there should be an option to move it into a money market fund, which basically is like parking your cash like you said, without withdrawing it from your actual 401k.
@@Joe99 I looked through my USAA IRA fund choices, and there's a fund #0042 named "Money Market Fund". So, that's an obvious one. Now to see if there's the same choice in my Fidelity 401k plan. Thanks.
Hello Phil , thank you for your thoughts; I am with Dalio this time(cash is trash);) I think all this debt is easy to repay if the rates are low to zero, like is the case for Europe(ECB) for quite some time. That means we might see same approach from FED; free money for big companies, not everybody of course, we might still see some chapter 11, but will be a lot of money to sustain to market, manipulating it; so no huge drops will happened..certainly not 1930 style, a lot of things are different now.
i am a novice so will appreciate help. I invest 50:50 into s&p500 index and a list of 12 tech companies. the index is my foundation - hard to go wrong, while the tech companies are something that i can afford to be ambitious in given that i invested in the broad index. The tech stocks are intel corporation, salesforce.com, visa inc, IBM, qualcomm inc, apple inc, mastercard inc, paypal, microsoft, nvidia, texas instruments incs, oracle corp. the tech stocks mentioned here are currently overvalued, so i am listening to Phil's advice to wait it out and see how things pan out in the next year or two. I will go in and invest $25,000 into this 50:50 rule. How is this as a strategy?
I've had my eye on bank stocks like ALLY, WFC, and BAC. I don't think the pain has hit the banks yet until these loan payment deferments end and the the defaults begin. I think there's still room for these to drop some more.
despite the drop optimism is still very high and the move is actually more bullish than bearish and without any doubt Bitcoin will rally up to $15,000 again , especially since weak hands seems to have putted out giving buyers a go at the market .the clear route now is to build a really strong portifolio and belvinscott tradings platform has proved beyond reasonable doubt to be one of the best trader and signals provider in the space .I subscribed to his services signals and alert ,and I was able to turn in over 20 bitcoins as profit in less than two weeks , starting from just 1.8 BTC .the best tutors do not just give theories but would guide you through demonstration and this helped me become a much better and productive successor than ever before.belvin Scott tradings Services are one of the few helping traders .stay in profit .you can always connect belvinscott tradings platform on WhatsApp +17146432108
Phil does not give advice on individual companies. He teaches you how to find great companies that suit your ability to understand how they make money. If you don't know how banks make their money he recommends to stay away from them. If you don't understand a company then you won't know when it is going bad. Banks are very complex.
Hi Phil, you’ve been very outspoken about Chipotle stock. With it hitting highs as of late, could you go over your valuation of the stock and share with us at what point you’d look at selling?
I work for a large company which is permanently in debt. They're like that because it allows them to write-off some/most profit against that debt and so reduce their tax liabilities. The way it works is they take out loans and use them as operating capital, then use profits to repay the loans without having to pay tax on those profits.
I would like to see your thoughts currently on whether or not it is possible to beat the market consistently, it seems like it's the consensus in the finance world that it is not possible
I think Intuitive Surgical has a great moat with their Da Vinci robots. Everything's in the green with this company. When the PE drops significantly lower, they'll be one on my favorites.
Amazing video. Makes lots of sense. Can you share which companies you are keeping an eye on? Perhaps the top 3? Personally for me right now I am looking to invest in Microsoft, Waste Management and Uber whenever I get an opportunity. But I have made a list of 30-40 stock tickers which I would like to own in future based on their evaluation.
Phil, what are your thoughts on companies with very little debt and their ability to take risk? The latter being important for growth. Do you think this is an indicator that management might not have a vision?
I was able to ride a couple of airlines up to 49 & 71% gains this last 2 months... but just sold due to what I believe you are talking about... Could you speak to if one should hold onto a few shares since they got them so low?
Funds of ant type are too hard to value. Relying on someone else to value a company is sketchy at best. Relying on someone to value a fund is complete faith. Phil teaches how to determine companies values yourself. Pick relatively easy to understand companies. If you can't see how it makes money (like many financial companies) then perhaps it is too gard to understand. Funds are too hard to understand.
Great video Phil! Rule #1 investing has been a life saver during this pandemic. My question is this: does this apply to stocks that own properties? Because I have been researching these stocks(f.e. Boston properties shares) and I think they might be a good investment. Thoughts , anyone?
Read. Read the various financial news oytlets -most are free. Read the companies annual and quarterly reports. It's pretty easy to find but does take effort.
Hi Phil, I see you as a younger more attractive very wise Warren Buffet. 🙂 In all seriousness though, you should make a video on inflation and deflation (monetary and price). I'd like to hear your thoughts on it.
I’ve been eying off this new gold producer who just opened their big mine. Had been $1.50-$1.80 all of last year and when covid-19 took off it dropped to 80 cents and I didn’t get board...within two weeks was back up to $1.80 😩
Hi Phil, What are your thoughts on Berkshire not buying back their own stocks. Is it related to Geico. Insurance portfolio?. Any idea of exposure of Geico related to business interruption or reinsurance portfolio which will be impacted by Covid 19.
I don't think we will ever have another 80% drop in S&P or Nasdaq. It has just become to easy to invest, unlike the old days. The tech sector is too strong to lose a lot of profit. And when we ever hit the average P/E of 15 or so, everybody will jump back in. But a P/E of 15 would be very unlikely. Everybody is looking for scraps of profit. If a "safe" tech sector can give you 3%, then a lot will take it. A P/E of 30 will be the new paradigm. If a pullback occurs on the Nasdaq, it will be to around 11000, A full pullback (to "normal values") 9000. Maybe 7500 with the recession, that hasn't even decently started. 6500 when it develops in a depression. But with everybody looking for scraps, I believe 9000-11000 is the floor with a bad economy. Only when we return to normal life (no recession, no covid, no Trump), can the big-tech sector drop too normal levels. But within a few years, those levels can even be higher than today. Nevertheless, I"m on 20% cash/gold. Which usually is 0%.
I have only retirement savings. Within those various accounts -- typically mutual funds I do have Roth money. I'm feeling a huge loss heading in my direction and only have 5 years before retirement. I do have about 100K in Roth accounts. I was thinking about moving those a brokerage account in cash holdings so they are not "hit" in the coming months/years--no growth, but no loss either. Good idea?
I have found a share without debt and a big mote . However, financial journalist have questioned the directors of the share paying out big dividends to shareholders. Is that the financial idiotic thing you were talking about?
Hi Phil -- I'm on board with preparing to go mostly to cash. But what about great companies we've purchased at really good prices (say 60 to 75% off their "sticker price" -- I'm talking close to half of Margin Of Safety price)? Have you gotten rid of everything at this point? I got into OZK and ULTA close to their troughs this spring so it seems premature to sell assuming I plan to hold for 10-20 years, but both are at risk for having big problems should we enter a true depression. Thanks for your vids!
I'm in the same position. I bought a company in March thats up 50% now and I'm wondering if I should just take the profit off the table. And buy more "if" or "when" the market drops again! Tough decision because I was planning on holding long term
What company. Dig deep into why this happened. How much value was it? Was it just one member of the team or multiple? Do they routinely do it because it is a major part of their compensation package and they sell just to get 'living cash' ? What percentage of their stock did they sell? How much of the company's value is it? Was it just one guy/girl who may be in divorce or is guying a property?
What happens in some companies is that the management invest into the company through leveraged holding. When the stock dip, they often need to meet the margin calls by selling part of their stocks, without further details I don't know if it is the case but you should check it too (in addition to classical bonus shares selling to transform it into cash after the vesting period). Although if it is not the case, it is a huge warning sign. Most of the time, the board is under pressure from the president and CEO to not sell any of their stocks in a downturn (they even sometimes pressure them to buy some to give confidence to the market). If they don't follow through, they are putting their position into high risk, so they consider the possibility of a significant downturn worth the professional risk they take.
I have a question, what if there is a good company with competitive advantage, not getting a decreased earning and i know this company will survive by this pandemic. Do you think it will get a correction on the stock price too if recession have came?
I haven't looked at their financials, but they do have name recognition in Egypt. I would look at intangible types of moat (advertising presence, cotton market share, name recognition, were they first in the industry, etc). Not a recommendation just some thoughts
Not Phil but I briefly looked at Honeywell and it has a lot of debt. Total Cash (mrq) 8.79B Total Debt (mrq) 16.86B But I think their products are pretty essential to our lives so they will be a good company in 10 years but I don't know enough about them to determine if their moat is good enough to survive a recession/depression
I think ROIC (return on invested capital) would be a useful metric to look at debt fuelled growth over the long term. Phil's talked about it in earlier videos :)
A company with debt greater than 3 years if earnings is at risk of nit being able to servise that debt in an economic downturn. Understanding why a company has debt and what the management is doing about that is a bit difficult but reading all you can about the company is helpful. Like Phil stated - debt is a barometer of a companies health and how well the management allocates capital.
What future 5 Yr growth rate can we expect of a wonderful business, with a strong MOAT whose income and earnings are going to suffer in the next 2 to 3 years?
His podcast is amazing for this.All the early episodes are gold for this kind of stuff. Episode 11 and 16 are good for his history. Listen to them all though!
That's the power of hindsight. If a company bought back shares and the stock price later fell, we know from the historical data that management bought back shares at the top. Likewise, we can see if they raise money by issuing shares when the stock price is at historical lows. It's the equivalent of an individual investor 'buying high and selling low' - the exact opposite of what a successful investor should be doing :D
Companies should be using free capital to grow the business, not buy-back shares. So if they'redoing this then something's probably wrong or out of wack.
Tech companies are always needing to reinvent their products. So many tech companies come and go. We want a company that is going to be strong in a decade - the life cycle in tech is much shorter than that. Stay away from the hot trends too. Some consider Facebook to be a trend. The next generation will determine if they want to use their parents social media platforms. New trends are emerging. Just food for thought.
@@Magnum2PI BABA is not Alibaba. It is a Cayman Island company that contracts with Alibaba to share profits. The CCP makes it illegal for foreign interests to own many strategic Chinese companies so the off shore contract situation was done. It is entirely possible that the CCP could rule that the BABA / Alibaba contract is illegal also and share holder value could go to zero - Geo politics in play. Phil will not invest in Chinese companies because of their lax accounting standards. Kunkin Coffee is such a case. I have well over 30 companies on my list that I am researching. All are companies that I can understand, have low to little debt. Now I am researching their moat, management and have a basic idea of what my buy price will be. The key to Phil's strategy is to know what companies are going to survive and thrive in a down turn and know what a good buy price is. Then wait. I like monster, costco, amazon, visa, ollies and many more.
Hi, I'm not Phil, but looking at ROKU the tv-platform, they have sizable debt, and are not earning money going into these bad times. You may love the company, and know a lot about their product, which I certainly don't (not wanting to own a tv :). So, to have success with it, you need to keep on top of the way ROKU is going, and have soild reason to believe that they'll improve profits. These bad times may cause the exact opposite, more losses for ROKU. You're the best to find out, if you think ROKU will grow, but it doesn't seem like the kind of company we're talking about in this topic, having half a billion in debts, and suffering a loss last quarter.
They are also a hot trend. Phil loves slow and steady - predictable companies with a great track record. Keeping a small part of you money in speculation is fine in his book too.
Are you eyeing any companies to invest in? And if so, do they meet all of these qualifications? Leave a comment below.
Get my guide that explains the 5 Long-Term Advantages to Look for in Business Investments sent straight to your inbox: bit.ly/3dajgVS
Phil, thanks for your work and for sharing your learning with others. I'm a pastor in a small town in Iowa, so I appreciate our mutual Iowa connection. Companies I'm looking at during future drops: MSFT, SQ, LULU, POOL, RACE, FAST.
I am already at a loss of 25% and usually, I wouldn't think about selling at a loss but Mercer has taken a lot more debt than I would like and MOMO is a Chinese online entertainment company with a very good balance sheet as far as I can see but the story of our relations with China are ever-changing which is why I am worried. thank you.
Thanks for your tip! I was researching some telecom companies and went checking their buyback history when reminded by this video. Man, some companies' management did trigger a big alarm! I feel bad that it seems some foreigner telecom companies look healthier than ours...
I really like AT&T and WPCarey at the moment have bought a small amount in those this week
Why will the companies with debt need to refinance in 4-5 years?
Thank you, Phil! This is SUCH a great talk. You taught me about debt back in 2007 and I applied those principles to my small business and grew my businesses to great success. Now that I'm exiting and ready to invest in the market, I obviously need to apply the same principles when investing in companies where I am NOT the manager :) So obvious now that you've pointed it out!!! THANK YOU!!
Waiting in cash doing exactly everything you are saying. Hopefully this pays off. Been pretty much in cash since I did your workshop in Ottawa in 2018 which was outstanding. Shiller and Whilshire massively high and extremely difficult to find anything with a MOS . Long time to be in cash but I will stay disciplined just as you instructed. Thanks for everything Phil.
I always look for debt free companies - as the master says ‘if you’re stupid you shouldn’t have it and if you are smart you shouldn’t need it.’ Great video as always! Thank you.
You might like FB, little to no debt and massive free cash flow
The thing is that nowadays debt is so cheap many companies take it out even if they dont necessarily need it, if only to keep up with competitors.
@@Ardarail I agree
Coca Cola, was at great price a couple of weeks ago. No debt, dividents, good earnings
What I take from this is, value is what's important, not just price. GREAT VIDEO. In a confusing ocean of information that is the 'net, Phil's teachings are my anchor. His workshop was the best investment of time I ever made, which led to me making great financial investments. Thanks Phil!!
One of the best learnings on this channel, I already recommend my friends to subscribe. Thank you for the learnings Phil 🙏🏻💐😇
Thank you for following along and being a part of the Rule #1 community!
Excellent video! Looking for the risks and warning signs is so important when investing. It is very important we consider debt, interest coverage, competitive moat, liquidity, and free cash flow. I am really happy to hear you talk about free cash flow because so few people seem to discuss that. Credit ratings can also be helpful and buying at or below fair value is so important.
You're absolutely right! Those are all crucial factors to consider when looking for companies to invest in. It's about much more than price.
@@PhilTownRule1Investing most definitely! I love your videos and all of the information you provide. Too many people focus entirely on price and whether they think it is "expensive."
@@StockInvestmentAnalysis Thank you for watching and following along.
This is exactly what I was looking for .. Awesome .. Thank you for making this video 👍
thank you so much Phil👌yes, I am eyeing now some companies with zero debt. I am really so grateful to be part of your workshop last June in Atlanta. at least a good timing for me to meet you. big thank you again and regards to Melissa.
I never comment on TH-cam videos...but I need to say that's your channel is the best.
THANK YOU for sharing your knowledge with us.
Thanks Phil for another excellent video. I really appreciate how you methodically break down and explain the ins and outs. It is good to find a voice of reason in the noise that youtube presents! Stay safe and keep up the good work!
My vision is that things will never be like we can imagine. you will wait for your crash forever. look up for opportunity and invest while you can, dont not wait with cash 100%
despite the drop optimism is still very high and the move is actually more bullish than bearish and without any doubt Bitcoin will rally up to $15,000 again , especially since weak hands seems to have putted out giving buyers a go at the market .the clear route now is to build a really strong portifolio and belvinscott tradings platform has proved beyond reasonable doubt to be one of the best trader and signals provider in the space .I subscribed to his services signals and alert ,and I was able to turn in over 20 bitcoins as profit in less than two weeks , starting from just 1.8 BTC .the best tutors do not just give theories but would guide you through demonstration and this helped me become a much better and productive successor than ever before.belvin Scott tradings Services are one of the few helping traders .stay in profit .you can always connect belvinscott tradings platform on WhatsApp +17146432108 .
I couldn't be more impressed by this investing mindset. Take notes people!
Am following these man. He has a point
I believe you mentioned before that you were changing your calculators to work off of free cash flow. Has this been done yet? Thanks for the great videos and podcast!
Love your video's Phil. Absolute quality!
I already bought the book Number 1 investing. I just love it! I read the Inteligent investor by Benjamin Graham and I have to say it was quite difficult for a beginner or it contained too much information wich much of it I was not interested in like options, bonds etc. I just have to sell that your book is amazing! Thank you Phil!!! I will totaly recommend your channel!
I'd be very interested to hear your assessment of PK (Park Hotels and Resorts). It's a difficult one for me to evaluate because of their high-debt and the nature of their business (hotel Real Estate with multiple Hotel chains) but they could possibly be considered as having a big moat as you can't simply replicate their portfolio. I believe their previous debt was also due to their expansion. The results of my cash flow and debt calculation wasn't good! Very keen to hear your thoughts on them!
Thanks for the great video as always Phil! Just a quick question, if they buy back shares when they are not cheap, doesn't it mean we as the owner/investor get more money out of it and that is good for us in a sense too? Although yes I get your point that it might mean the management is not as strategic in terms of their decision making.
In 10 minutes Phil laid out the entire playbook for investing in a recessionary environment. Unbelievable value here
The first half of his workshop goes into it more deeply. The second galf is about option strategies which can be helpful too. His online training classes are pricey but puts it all together. The toolbox subscription comes in quite handy too.
Thanks Phil. Good as always.
Helps a lot. :)
what are great investments? these videos are great investments
Thank you, Phil, for all your great teaching.
I totally agree, that there wouldn't be much on sale right now, after we are almost back where we were in February, however, you say it is all very deflationary right now. Are we not seeing this inflation right now on the stock market? Are we not seeing how Mr. Market is accepting a lot higher cyclically adjusted P/E ratios due to the low interest rates, the flooding of the market with money and no alternative to invest in?
despite the drop optimism is still very high and the move is actually more bullish than bearish and without any doubt Bitcoin will rally up to $15,000 again , especially since weak hands seems to have putted out giving buyers a go at the market .the clear route now is to build a really strong portifolio and belvinscott tradings platform has proved beyond reasonable doubt to be one of the best trader and signals provider in the space .I subscribed to his services signals and alert ,and I was able to turn in over 20 bitcoins as profit in less than two weeks , starting from just 1.8 BTC .the best tutors do not just give theories but would guide you through demonstration and this helped me become a much better and productive successor than ever before.belvin Scott tradings Services are one of the few helping traders .stay in profit .you can always connect belvinscott tradings platform on WhatsApp +17146432108
I have taken some money and invested in large Bank Stocks. JPM, BK, BAC. Also SYF. They all have much more cash than debt. Therefore I guess Debt free? At this time it looks like the Federal Reserve is providing loans to many companies to keep them afloat and the loan losses by these banks could be well handled. (Hopefully). What do you think?
Thank you Phil for these videos packed with educational investing information, they really help me to become more proactive and aware of my financial needs for the future. Thanks again for your generosity, you are a stand up guy!
Thank you so much for the knowledge Uncle Phil!
Eyeing on Infineon Tech. (IFX) and Nokia (NOK) ;)
Excellent video Thanks!
With all of the recent stock price meltdowns, it's very tempting to jump in and "buy the dip". Any thoughts on jumping in now vs. waiting a while longer? Assuming you've researched the companies you're going to invest in. I realize timing the market is impossible but if I'm in it for the long haul (about 15 to 20 years), why wait?
Some great companies did go on sale and have bounced back enough to be too expensive. From what I gather most Rule One followers only got somewhat invested in the quick crash and are now waiting to see if the economy will tank the markets in a more slower way like most recessions have been.
How can I find out if a company's management team is buying back their own stock at too high prices? Does that show up on one of their filing reports? If so, which one?
Glad to wait and study while I'm waiting
What is your take on Tesla?
Always anxious to get involved. Thanks for your time and knowledge. Fishing season in Alaska.
Phil it seems like your really looking to get into a strong cash position and be ready for the downturn. How much of a portfolio would you like to see as cash to be ready for this downturn? 30% 50%? Thanks for all your help, debating spending the money on the 3 day seminar in June!
How does anyone know where the stock market is headed next?
Thanks alot for another good bit Phil, I've been listening and reading your books for years. I look at Ballard Power Systems, Vivint Solar, EAM Solar, and Coeur Mining, all but the last are in need of a huge pullback for me to buy though. The last 12 months I've liquidated my tour bus company (voluntarily and in a controlled fashion), and am 100% in cash, with no debt on my house. History sure was backwards this time though: when China caught a cold, the whole world got corona!
For PPE, wouldn't you prefer to use maintenance Capital expenditure?
Very good advice. Thank you Phil for all the great stuff you put out. It's an investment in it's self.
When analyzing a REIT such as Reality Income, do you still use free cash flow the same way you would as a regular company?
As always 👍👍👍👍👍.good advice. I have been following your advice for the past one year. Had learnt a lot thing from you.God bless u and ur family
Nice channel !!! Good suggestion!!! Grate idea about investing!!! Hope we all will pus over corona time!!! Good luck for everyone who is trying to start investing. Like me !!!
The vast majority of my investments are in a company 401k with Fidelity. I agree that the markets will probably take a tumble again, but that brings up a hugely-important question that no one has been able to answer for me. A company 401k typically has a limited number of funds to pick from. Mine is in a 2025-targeted retirement fund. Of course, even though I saw this previous downturn coming from a mile away, I didn't learn in time how to "park" my 401k's funds into the safest possible fund choice to avoid the worst of the downturn. Is there a smart way of doing this? Is it simply by doing research to see which funds have more of the cash-based assets? I'm really surprised I haven't been able to find anyone talking about this particular subject considering that so many people should probably be doing this to avoid a major portion of the losses.
Hi Brad, I just did this today in my 401k. In your plan, go to your investment selections and there should be an option to move it into a money market fund, which basically is like parking your cash like you said, without withdrawing it from your actual 401k.
@@Joe99 I looked through my USAA IRA fund choices, and there's a fund #0042 named "Money Market Fund". So, that's an obvious one. Now to see if there's the same choice in my Fidelity 401k plan. Thanks.
Hello Phil , thank you for your thoughts; I am with Dalio this time(cash is trash);)
I think all this debt is easy to repay if the rates are low to zero, like is the case for Europe(ECB) for quite some time.
That means we might see same approach from FED; free money for big companies, not everybody of course, we might still see some chapter 11, but will be a lot of money to sustain to market, manipulating it; so no huge drops will happened..certainly not 1930 style, a lot of things are different now.
Phil, what is the Baer case that you see for the market fall back to level of 2006 over the next year timeframe?
WFC and BAC are on my radar right now. KO and JNJ are on my second level that I'm researching.
WFC is one of the worst run companies
Banks are very difficult to understand how they make money. If you are not a banking expert Phil recommends to stay clear from them.
do you divide FCF from long term debt or total liabilities?
Thanks Phil! Keep up the good work!
Thank you a lot. I' ve learned a lot from you.
i am a novice so will appreciate help. I invest 50:50 into s&p500 index and a list of 12 tech companies. the index is my foundation - hard to go wrong, while the tech companies are something that i can afford to be ambitious in given that i invested in the broad index. The tech stocks are intel corporation, salesforce.com, visa inc, IBM, qualcomm inc, apple inc, mastercard inc, paypal, microsoft, nvidia, texas instruments incs, oracle corp.
the tech stocks mentioned here are currently overvalued, so i am listening to Phil's advice to wait it out and see how things pan out in the next year or two. I will go in and invest $25,000 into this 50:50 rule. How is this as a strategy?
I've had my eye on bank stocks like ALLY, WFC, and BAC. I don't think the pain has hit the banks yet until these loan payment deferments end and the the defaults begin. I think there's still room for these to drop some more.
despite the drop optimism is still very high and the move is actually more bullish than bearish and without any doubt Bitcoin will rally up to $15,000 again , especially since weak hands seems to have putted out giving buyers a go at the market .the clear route now is to build a really strong portifolio and belvinscott tradings platform has proved beyond reasonable doubt to be one of the best trader and signals provider in the space .I subscribed to his services signals and alert ,and I was able to turn in over 20 bitcoins as profit in less than two weeks , starting from just 1.8 BTC .the best tutors do not just give theories but would guide you through demonstration and this helped me become a much better and productive successor than ever before.belvin Scott tradings Services are one of the few helping traders .stay in profit .you can always connect belvinscott tradings platform on WhatsApp +17146432108
Phil does not give advice on individual companies. He teaches you how to find great companies that suit your ability to understand how they make money. If you don't know how banks make their money he recommends to stay away from them. If you don't understand a company then you won't know when it is going bad. Banks are very complex.
Hi Phil, you’ve been very outspoken about Chipotle stock. With it hitting highs as of late, could you go over your valuation of the stock and share with us at what point you’d look at selling?
AMAZING video, thank's!
It's helpfull to european investores of all kind of markets like me as well :)
I'm watching and taking notes.
Great content...thank you....
Awesome content Phil!
I'm looking at the companies, Heineken, Volkswagen, Chevron, McDonalds and Coca Cola. All these companies have good moats but some have debt too.
I work for a large company which is permanently in debt. They're like that because it allows them to write-off some/most profit against that debt and so reduce their tax liabilities.
The way it works is they take out loans and use them as operating capital, then use profits to repay the loans without having to pay tax on those profits.
Hey Phil,
What do you think about buying shares in Rolls Royce ?
I would like to see your thoughts currently on whether or not it is possible to beat the market consistently, it seems like it's the consensus in the finance world that it is not possible
I think Intuitive Surgical has a great moat with their Da Vinci robots. Everything's in the green with this company. When the PE drops significantly lower, they'll be one on my favorites.
JNJ is doing robots aswell
Do you think it is possible to go back to 2009 levels and will the FED allow this?
Amazing video. Makes lots of sense. Can you share which companies you are keeping an eye on? Perhaps the top 3? Personally for me right now I am looking to invest in Microsoft, Waste Management and Uber whenever I get an opportunity. But I have made a list of 30-40 stock tickers which I would like to own in future based on their evaluation.
Phil, what are your thoughts on companies with very little debt and their ability to take risk? The latter being important for growth. Do you think this is an indicator that management might not have a vision?
I was able to ride a couple of airlines up to 49 & 71% gains this last 2 months... but just sold due to what I believe you are talking about... Could you speak to if one should hold onto a few shares since they got them so low?
Phil has a weekly pod cast with his daughter called Invested. They talked about airlines within the past two months.
Do closed end funds trading at a discount to net asset value signal opportunity to investors?
Funds of ant type are too hard to value. Relying on someone else to value a company is sketchy at best. Relying on someone to value a fund is complete faith.
Phil teaches how to determine companies values yourself. Pick relatively easy to understand companies. If you can't see how it makes money (like many financial companies) then perhaps it is too gard to understand. Funds are too hard to understand.
hey Phil . is it to late to join your webinar ?
@Phil should we use operating cash flow or net cash used in operations to calculate free cash flow
You have a watchlist for yourself?
Phil what's your take on Fed blowing up it's balance sheet? Will you be buying below 20K? Or waiting to sub 15K levels.
Superb Phil. I have been your ardent follower. Come to Mumbai for a face to face session post Lockdown/Corona event.
Thanks Phil Triva
Solid info as usual!
Are you talking about the Total debt of the company?
Great video Phil! Rule #1 investing has been a life saver during this pandemic. My question is this: does this apply to stocks that own properties? Because I have been researching these stocks(f.e. Boston properties shares) and I think they might be a good investment. Thoughts , anyone?
Yes .
Phil, Where can I see what you said about if and when the company is buying back it’s stocks, and when?
Thank you
Read. Read the various financial news oytlets -most are free. Read the companies annual and quarterly reports. It's pretty easy to find but does take effort.
Is 8-10 years too long for a company to pay off long term debt? What is the average timeframe to consider before investing in that company?
Phil says 3 years max, but even less is better right now considering the circumstances.
Hi Phil, I see you as a younger more attractive very wise Warren Buffet. 🙂
In all seriousness though, you should make a video on inflation and deflation (monetary and price). I'd like to hear your thoughts on it.
Amazon is pushing your Book on me haha, looks like they’ve been trying to help me. It’ll happen one day. Can’t wait to explore your mind 🧠
It's worth reading.
I’ve been eying off this new gold producer who just opened their big mine. Had been $1.50-$1.80 all of last year and when covid-19 took off it dropped to 80 cents and I didn’t get board...within two weeks was back up to $1.80 😩
Sounds like fambling. What happens to your money if the gold vein isn't as big as anticipated? Speculation is fine but it isn't investing.
That one was a keeper - thanks.
Hi Phil, What are your thoughts on Berkshire not buying back their own stocks. Is it related to Geico. Insurance portfolio?. Any idea of exposure of Geico related to business interruption or reinsurance portfolio which will be impacted by Covid 19.
I don't think we will ever have another 80% drop in S&P or Nasdaq. It has just become to easy to invest, unlike the old days. The tech sector is too strong to lose a lot of profit. And when we ever hit the average P/E of 15 or so, everybody will jump back in. But a P/E of 15 would be very unlikely. Everybody is looking for scraps of profit. If a "safe" tech sector can give you 3%, then a lot will take it. A P/E of 30 will be the new paradigm. If a pullback occurs on the Nasdaq, it will be to around 11000, A full pullback (to "normal values") 9000. Maybe 7500 with the recession, that hasn't even decently started. 6500 when it develops in a depression.
But with everybody looking for scraps, I believe 9000-11000 is the floor with a bad economy. Only when we return to normal life (no recession, no covid, no Trump), can the big-tech sector drop too normal levels. But within a few years, those levels can even be higher than today. Nevertheless, I"m on 20% cash/gold. Which usually is 0%.
I have only retirement savings. Within those various accounts -- typically mutual funds I do have Roth money. I'm feeling a huge loss heading in my direction and only have 5 years before retirement. I do have about 100K in Roth accounts. I was thinking about moving those a brokerage account in cash holdings so they are not "hit" in the coming months/years--no growth, but no loss either. Good idea?
Take Phils' training too! It'll help you not lose your money.
good, thanks
Thank you. I'll be careful.
I have found a share without debt and a big mote . However, financial journalist have questioned the directors of the share paying out big dividends to shareholders. Is that the financial idiotic thing you were talking about?
Hi Phil -- I'm on board with preparing to go mostly to cash. But what about great companies we've purchased at really good prices (say 60 to 75% off their "sticker price" -- I'm talking close to half of Margin Of Safety price)? Have you gotten rid of everything at this point? I got into OZK and ULTA close to their troughs this spring so it seems premature to sell assuming I plan to hold for 10-20 years, but both are at risk for having big problems should we enter a true depression. Thanks for your vids!
I'm in the same position. I bought a company in March thats up 50% now and I'm wondering if I should just take the profit off the table. And buy more "if" or "when" the market drops again! Tough decision because I was planning on holding long term
Thanks Phil.
The management team of a company i bought just sold half a million shares at what i thought were great buying prices
What company. Dig deep into why this happened. How much value was it? Was it just one member of the team or multiple? Do they routinely do it because it is a major part of their compensation package and they sell just to get 'living cash' ? What percentage of their stock did they sell? How much of the company's value is it? Was it just one guy/girl who may be in divorce or is guying a property?
What happens in some companies is that the management invest into the company through leveraged holding. When the stock dip, they often need to meet the margin calls by selling part of their stocks, without further details I don't know if it is the case but you should check it too (in addition to classical bonus shares selling to transform it into cash after the vesting period).
Although if it is not the case, it is a huge warning sign. Most of the time, the board is under pressure from the president and CEO to not sell any of their stocks in a downturn (they even sometimes pressure them to buy some to give confidence to the market). If they don't follow through, they are putting their position into high risk, so they consider the possibility of a significant downturn worth the professional risk they take.
Good advice
Hmm, means i am trapped with holdings
Delta
Uber
Baba
Disney
TFC
I have a question, what if there is a good company with competitive advantage, not getting a decreased earning and i know this company will survive by this pandemic. Do you think it will get a correction on the stock price too if recession have came?
Why do we like Gildan since they have no moat?
I haven't looked at their financials, but they do have name recognition in Egypt. I would look at intangible types of moat (advertising presence, cotton market share, name recognition, were they first in the industry, etc). Not a recommendation just some thoughts
FYI their major competitor in Egypt from a name recognition pov is a brand called Cottonil
Thank you
Phil your thoughts on IBM and Honeywell?
Not Phil but I briefly looked at Honeywell and it has a lot of debt.
Total Cash (mrq) 8.79B
Total Debt (mrq) 16.86B
But I think their products are pretty essential to our lives so they will be a good company in 10 years but I don't know enough about them to determine if their moat is good enough to survive a recession/depression
Do companies without debt exist at all? If they went into IPO they needed money. If they needed money they most certainly have debt.
Some companies justify having debt for growth. How can you know if its good or bad in such cases?
I think ROIC (return on invested capital) would be a useful metric to look at debt fuelled growth over the long term. Phil's talked about it in earlier videos :)
A company with debt greater than 3 years if earnings is at risk of nit being able to servise that debt in an economic downturn. Understanding why a company has debt and what the management is doing about that is a bit difficult but reading all you can about the company is helpful. Like Phil stated - debt is a barometer of a companies health and how well the management allocates capital.
What future 5 Yr growth rate can we expect of a wonderful business, with a strong MOAT whose income and earnings are going to suffer in the next 2 to 3 years?
Phil can you give us a framework that you follow when you started? It is the only thing I want to know, yes if you're trying to help me?
His podcast is amazing for this.All the early episodes are gold for this kind of stuff. Episode 11 and 16 are good for his history. Listen to them all though!
familydinner1 thank. You very very much I really appreciate thank you.
Do you think that $4 million worth of share repurchases last year out of a $131 million free cash flow is a cause for concern?
To play Devil's advocate, couldnt management buying back shares at a high be a sign that the stock is about to grow further?
That's the power of hindsight. If a company bought back shares and the stock price later fell, we know from the historical data that management bought back shares at the top. Likewise, we can see if they raise money by issuing shares when the stock price is at historical lows. It's the equivalent of an individual investor 'buying high and selling low' - the exact opposite of what a successful investor should be doing :D
Companies should be using free capital to grow the business, not buy-back shares. So if they'redoing this then something's probably wrong or out of wack.
So far I found a couple that are decent...but they are still severely overpriced; Intuit and Nitori Holdings
Agreed! The market is still overpriced. Be patient.
amd, qualcomm, apple, facebook some companies for me :)
Tech companies are always needing to reinvent their products. So many tech companies come and go. We want a company that is going to be strong in a decade - the life cycle in tech is much shorter than that.
Stay away from the hot trends too. Some consider Facebook to be a trend. The next generation will determine if they want to use their parents social media platforms. New trends are emerging. Just food for thought.
@@joephysics5469 Got a better recommendation? How about BABA
@@Magnum2PI BABA is not Alibaba. It is a Cayman Island company that contracts with Alibaba to share profits. The CCP makes it illegal for foreign interests to own many strategic Chinese companies so the off shore contract situation was done. It is entirely possible that the CCP could rule that the BABA / Alibaba contract is illegal also and share holder value could go to zero - Geo politics in play. Phil will not invest in Chinese companies because of their lax accounting standards. Kunkin Coffee is such a case.
I have well over 30 companies on my list that I am researching. All are companies that I can understand, have low to little debt. Now I am researching their moat, management and have a basic idea of what my buy price will be. The key to Phil's strategy is to know what companies are going to survive and thrive in a down turn and know what a good buy price is. Then wait. I like monster, costco, amazon, visa, ollies and many more.
Hey Phil, (novice investor here) I have 10 shares in Roku and will hold onto them for 5-10 years, am I on the right track?
Hi, I'm not Phil, but looking at ROKU the tv-platform, they have sizable debt, and are not earning money going into these bad times. You may love the company, and know a lot about their product, which I certainly don't (not wanting to own a tv :). So, to have success with it, you need to keep on top of the way ROKU is going, and have soild reason to believe that they'll improve profits. These bad times may cause the exact opposite, more losses for ROKU. You're the best to find out, if you think ROKU will grow, but it doesn't seem like the kind of company we're talking about in this topic, having half a billion in debts, and suffering a loss last quarter.
They are also a hot trend. Phil loves slow and steady - predictable companies with a great track record. Keeping a small part of you money in speculation is fine in his book too.