When things don’t work out, always say to yourself , that probably that was the aim , at the outset ( for things not to work out, and for there to be chaos or collapse )
The EU and Euro were never a viable system with such a diversity of economic gearing between members. This was raised by economists well before the Euro was brought in and it stands today. Unless a solution is created for this problem the Euro will fail. Greece is a good litmus test for the future, they have spent their bailout and are still no nearer to a viable economy. The truth is they never will under the Euro. What next? They can't lend them more as Greece already can't afford the repayments, and Greece can't maintain a functioning government under the levels of austerity required to continue. Viability is only achieved with a continual bailout of free money to Greece and similar states (like what happens in the US), and that means that Germany, UK and France will need to increase their contributions tenfold and clear the slate on current lending. I can't see that happening, and I am not sure it is financial productive across the Eurozone to do so.
Crouching Peacock Re: "...Unless a solution is created for this problem the Euro will fail." Please listen to John Gray's comments at this same panel discussion. Essentially, a solution is impossible.
matt garbe Thanks, I have just watched the video and agree whole heartedly with what he said. I don't think he is saying it is impossible from a logistics point of view, financial balancing and political union would unwind most of the problems. I think what he is quite rightly pointing out is that the appetite for such expense and loss of sovereignty is not there and never will be. As I said in my closing statement, I can't see it happening, but only one thing gives me pause. Much of the European Union's progression to date has been done without the specific will or backing of the people. Democracy would prevent the unthinkable actions needed to make the project work, but we can't assume that the people will be given the option to derail it. Just as many influential businessmen and politicians have profited greatly from the development of the EU, they will be reluctant to let it fail and face the associated financial losses. The signing of the Lisbon Treaty in the UK passed without fanfare and hardly any media coverage, let alone a referendum. Even to this day most people do not understand the significance of it. I would not discount the possibility that we will end up in a Federal Europe by a slow erosion of rights dressed as policy modifications until there is no untangling it. Democracy has limits and we are seeing them in action. We have a long history of only being given the choices that are convenient and acceptable to the government (e.g. the ridiculous AV referendum which set back political reform for another 20 years). If the government decides that it would be inconvenient to have a referendum on joining a Federalised Europe, we won't get one. In many ways I wonder at the timing of the UK referendum on EU membership. I think there will be a vote to remain in the EU in 2017, but in five years time it will be beginning to fail and I think it would go the other way. Having a referendum now takes it off the agenda for 20 years and allows for a lot of decision making under an assumed remit of furthering the EU cause without needing another referendum. If Greece exit expect to see the referendum brought forward rapidly before it destabilizes any further I don't want to sound cynical but this is the world we live in. Maybe I am getting paranoid but this has always looked like a project that is dressed up to look like an evolution, but always had a fixed end game in mind. Democracy is a cheap boon to keep the populace compliant, and for the most part we have fallen for it.
Crouching Peacock Your post was a well thought out, and well written, analysis and political opinion piece and I agree with most of it. I am perhaps more optimistic than you are about the ability of individual European states to untangle themselves from voluntary confederations, as is the case with the EU, or involuntary confederations, as was the case with the the satellite nations of the USSR. This 'untangling' by individual States can come with or without the permission of those in power, i.e through various forms of quiet or not so quiet revolution. A great crisis, or a series of smaller crises, can lead to some interesting and unforeseen outcomes. (I realize that last sentence was a bit of a platitude, but it is also a greatly overlooked political and social truth.) Expanding on my last paragraph, I think that we in the 'Anglo-sphere' are the heirs and beneficiaries of remarkably stable political cultures when compared to the rest of the world (I am assuming that you are a Briton; I am an American). Therefore, in terms of crisis, the way that the UK remains or disengages from the EU may be very different from how other countries with far less stable political cultures react to crises affecting them. In other words, things may be happening sub rosa at a faster clip in parts of Europe than you realize in the UK, or than we realize in the US. The Greeks won't take much more abuse without eventually hitting back with serious resistance. All indications point to things getting even worse for the Portuguese and the Spanish than things are now, which will most probably cause even more serious unrest and upheaval. Let us also not forget that social upheaval inevitably gives rise to powerful demagoguery, and the chaos and sudden changes in political direction by populists suddenly in power can have face-blanching consequences. As to your last paragraph, I'm inclined to believe that there never was a nefarious end-game in mind. Of course, there was the idealism of the post war period where people had the overriding idea that they must create a Europe which was cooperative in nature, and that never again should there be a war of such magnitude as WWII, or indeed any war if it could be avoided. Well, "The road to hell is paved with good intentions", isn't that right ?.
I don't think Japan is similar to Germany particularly family systems. Japan is closer to Italy or Spain, where housing for two or three family generations is common and children and/or grandchildren help the elderly at home. This is highly uncommon in Germany. I also have other disagreements, but my impression is that Todd is not that familiar with systems outside of the Western world. But I agree with his "Euro will never work" theory.
+g wil He is anthropologist who studied traditional rural families before the industrailsation and the urbanisation. The traditional german families were close to the japanese one. Of course, it has completly disappeared in modern germany. He's familiar with every family system in the world, he dedicated his whole life to this area of study and recently published a book dealing with the origins of the family system in Eurasia since the beginning of agriculture. I don't know if the book has been translated.
Doney Hon No, he is a demagogue who applies bad faith sophistry to promulgate pathologizing stereotypes of Germans. If there ever were to break out another big confilct among European peoples, people like him are to blame.
Dr Zorn He wrote "La diversité du monde: famille et modernité". It was a promotion of the german model. I love this kind of "blabla" founded on ignorance.
There isn't a "German model". The reasons why Germany outperforms France are quite straightforward and mundane: Less beurocracy, far less people in the publc sector and similar state fund receivers who violently lobby for their interest at the expense of the common good. All this BS about the "German way" and the of course naturally superior "French way" are just rationalisations to spare your hurt feelings. And of course your establishment just needs a scapegot and surprise, surprise, it's the Germans. And Todd is well know as an anti-German bigot.
thank you for your insights dr todd. you are and will always remain my favourite intellectual next to chomsky.
So honest and passionate about the global future 🥂👍
Great !! The internet needs more of this content.
Excellent !
Instead of this intellectual analysis we had utter stupidity during the Brexit debate in UK. On both sides!
When things don’t work out, always say to yourself , that probably that was the aim , at the outset ( for things not to work out, and for there to be chaos or collapse )
Very insightful
It's his middlename...
Fast forward to 2024 and the world is laughing its ass off at this statement. 😂😂😂
i thoroughly doubt it.Unless they have a death wish
After the Empire and Lineages of Modernity are outstanding works
The EU and Euro were never a viable system with such a diversity of economic gearing between members. This was raised by economists well before the Euro was brought in and it stands today. Unless a solution is created for this problem the Euro will fail.
Greece is a good litmus test for the future, they have spent their bailout and are still no nearer to a viable economy. The truth is they never will under the Euro. What next? They can't lend them more as Greece already can't afford the repayments, and Greece can't maintain a functioning government under the levels of austerity required to continue.
Viability is only achieved with a continual bailout of free money to Greece and similar states (like what happens in the US), and that means that Germany, UK and France will need to increase their contributions tenfold and clear the slate on current lending. I can't see that happening, and I am not sure it is financial productive across the Eurozone to do so.
Crouching Peacock Re: "...Unless a solution is created for this problem the Euro will fail." Please listen to John Gray's comments at this same panel discussion. Essentially, a solution is impossible.
matt garbe Thanks, I have just watched the video and agree whole heartedly with what he said. I don't think he is saying it is impossible from a logistics point of view, financial balancing and political union would unwind most of the problems. I think what he is quite rightly pointing out is that the appetite for such expense and loss of sovereignty is not there and never will be.
As I said in my closing statement, I can't see it happening, but only one thing gives me pause. Much of the European Union's progression to date has been done without the specific will or backing of the people. Democracy would prevent the unthinkable actions needed to make the project work, but we can't assume that the people will be given the option to derail it. Just as many influential businessmen and politicians have profited greatly from the development of the EU, they will be reluctant to let it fail and face the associated financial losses. The signing of the Lisbon Treaty in the UK passed without fanfare and hardly any media coverage, let alone a referendum. Even to this day most people do not understand the significance of it. I would not discount the possibility that we will end up in a Federal Europe by a slow erosion of rights dressed as policy modifications until there is no untangling it.
Democracy has limits and we are seeing them in action. We have a long history of only being given the choices that are convenient and acceptable to the government (e.g. the ridiculous AV referendum which set back political reform for another 20 years). If the government decides that it would be inconvenient to have a referendum on joining a Federalised Europe, we won't get one. In many ways I wonder at the timing of the UK referendum on EU membership. I think there will be a vote to remain in the EU in 2017, but in five years time it will be beginning to fail and I think it would go the other way. Having a referendum now takes it off the agenda for 20 years and allows for a lot of decision making under an assumed remit of furthering the EU cause without needing another referendum. If Greece exit expect to see the referendum brought forward rapidly before it destabilizes any further
I don't want to sound cynical but this is the world we live in. Maybe I am getting paranoid but this has always looked like a project that is dressed up to look like an evolution, but always had a fixed end game in mind. Democracy is a cheap boon to keep the populace compliant, and for the most part we have fallen for it.
Crouching Peacock Your post was a well thought out, and well written, analysis and political opinion piece and I agree with most of it. I am perhaps more optimistic than you are about the ability of individual European states to untangle themselves from voluntary confederations, as is the case with the EU, or involuntary confederations, as was the case with the the satellite nations of the USSR. This 'untangling' by individual States can come with or without the permission of those in power, i.e through various forms of quiet or not so quiet revolution. A great crisis, or a series of smaller crises, can lead to some interesting and unforeseen outcomes. (I realize that last sentence was a bit of a platitude, but it is also a greatly overlooked political and social truth.)
Expanding on my last paragraph, I think that we in the 'Anglo-sphere' are the heirs and beneficiaries of remarkably stable political cultures when compared to the rest of the world (I am assuming that you are a Briton; I am an American). Therefore, in terms of crisis, the way that the UK remains or disengages from the EU may be very different from how other countries with far less stable political cultures react to crises affecting them. In other words, things may be happening sub rosa at a faster clip in parts of Europe than you realize in the UK, or than we realize in the US. The Greeks won't take much more abuse without eventually hitting back with serious resistance. All indications point to things getting even worse for the Portuguese and the Spanish than things are now, which will most probably cause even more serious unrest and upheaval. Let us also not forget that social upheaval inevitably gives rise to powerful demagoguery, and the chaos and sudden changes in political direction by populists suddenly in power can have face-blanching consequences.
As to your last paragraph, I'm inclined to believe that there never was a nefarious end-game in mind. Of course, there was the idealism of the post war period where people had the overriding idea that they must create a Europe which was cooperative in nature, and that never again should there be a war of such magnitude as WWII, or indeed any war if it could be avoided. Well, "The road to hell is paved with good intentions", isn't that right ?.
Crouching Peacock food for thought. You are probably right
Crouching Peacock well said
@golphindolphin
godwin point blown out
congratulation
I like Todd but ... euro still stand ten years after ; so ?
not for long now, Dr Todd is a visionary
He's right about France now, but in positive way
I don't think Japan is similar to Germany particularly family systems. Japan is closer to Italy or Spain, where housing for two or three family generations is common and children and/or grandchildren help the elderly at home. This is highly uncommon in Germany. I also have other disagreements, but my impression is that Todd is not that familiar with systems outside of the Western world. But I agree with his "Euro will never work" theory.
+g wil
He is anthropologist who studied traditional rural families before the industrailsation and the urbanisation. The traditional german families were close to the japanese one. Of course, it has completly disappeared in modern germany.
He's familiar with every family system in the world, he dedicated his whole life to this area of study and recently published a book dealing with the origins of the family system in Eurasia since the beginning of agriculture. I don't know if the book has been translated.
One more reminder that "ressentiment" is a French word.
Dr Zorn Ressentiment about what? He speak about facts.
Doney Hon
No, he is a demagogue who applies bad faith sophistry to promulgate pathologizing stereotypes of Germans.
If there ever were to break out another big confilct among European peoples, people like him are to blame.
Dr Zorn He wrote "La diversité du monde: famille et modernité". It was a promotion of the german model. I love this kind of "blabla" founded on ignorance.
There isn't a "German model". The reasons why Germany outperforms France are quite straightforward and mundane: Less beurocracy, far less people in the publc sector and similar state fund receivers who violently lobby for their interest at the expense of the common good. All this BS about the "German way" and the of course naturally superior "French way" are just rationalisations to spare your hurt feelings. And of course your establishment just needs a scapegot and surprise, surprise, it's the Germans.
And Todd is well know as an anti-German bigot.
Dr Zorn Ok, I see. You never read him. Open a book.
He has to learn English!!!!!
why?
you mean... German?!
Rocco Forte ???
Rocco Forte He is teacher in Oxford... and you?
You are jealous ! You are not an oxford teacher like him !