This is exactly what happened to me. I lost half of my year last year fading TSLA with puts on the 2nd after the soft CPI release in November. TSLA bounced 10% on that day and I thought for sure it would correct to the downside as the overall trajectory was down. Big mistake. After a consistent 3rd year where I thought I was past big losses I took a karate kick to the nuts. I hindsight it was the perfect 2nd day continuation play from the SMB playbook in the free 2hr webinar and the winning trader. Lol. I was completely on tilt and almost blew up completely. I still haven’t fully recovered psychologically from it. Still here though 💪🏾
Gonna rewatch this to see what you went through… I know I have lost money… it does effect the psychology. I have to use my stop loses…. Rather have a paper cut than a total train wreck…
Stay strong, Steve. My read on price action alone went wrong in my DVN trade from November. Looking back on it I decided to rethink all my trading now to include Key Numbers and Price Levels, cut my size and changed to less volatile stock until I got my confidence back. I now have a more robust trading system. There's more to it than just waving your hands and saying everything's OK now. Make a change, practice and dig down deep into your psyche. Never give up
In the intro Lance includes the US price cuts in some of the reasons for the drop in TSLA price. In fact the morning after the news of the US price drop was the absolute bottom in TSLA stock price. It went up straight from there.
The 1 thing I've learned is that volatile stocks like Tesla can only be traded with confidence long term. With short term trades I would of been down over 65%. I stayed in the trade and buckled down almost doubling my position and getting my average buy price down towards $200. I plan to ride the rebound and already I've almost made it all back. Now my position is exposed to potentially make huge gains instead of losses. All because I firmly believed in the trade and stayed strong and stayed in it despite the emotional hit and impulse to sell when you see it dropping like a rock.
TSLA was a typical example of how stock market does exactely the opposite of what is obvious to market participants. In August market rally , TSLA was one of the strong big caps. stocks in QQQ. Then while market melt during September, with QQQ printing new lows, TSLA was holding very well in a nice range. At this point it was clear to everyone that if TSLA is holding so well in a market decline it will probably do very well when the market reverse. A lot of traders , especially in the options market were position for a what they thought it was the easy trade “A rally in TSLA”. Ironically when the market stopped the decline, TSLA brutal selloff started, catching most of the traders with their pants down.
Thx. Greta video as always. I made just the mistake you mentioned in the video, buying the left side of the V as it looked like peak-extension to me. Hopefully, I learned my lesson and it was great hearing it from you as well.
this year i have started to improve in my trading due to increasing levels of my patience, controlling my excitement, waiting for the right setups and saying no to the trades where it doesnt make sense to me.
I call this volume spike "inefficiency" Its taking more "fuel" (volume) to do the same amount of work(trending down) This is showing that there are hidden buyers and its increasingly getting harder to make the same price movements
Hi Lance thank you for this amazing video - i def had that FOMO feeling bc like you i didn’t catch that crazy reversal in time bc i was just not convinced. Nonetheless thanks again for the amazing video and TA. you rock!
Thanks for the Sunday traders church session SMB! You have no idea how much I’ve learned from the content you provide the trading community .🙏 Till then 👍
Thank you this was extremely helpful information. Thank you Lance and SMB for continuing to provide professional and experienced advice on proven trading strategies. This is a really cool trade setup and something I am going to be watching for during the volatile trading year of 2023. Thanks again!
I did a wheel trade on TSLA. Took assignment of TSLA at 136.67 on1/20. Stock closed at 133.42 My cost basis was actually about 125 because of the premiums collected. I had covered it with a call at $150 and the stock has run through my call. I will continue to cash flow with the in the money covered call until the stock gets called away by the call. It will be a 20-25% return on my money as it will called away in the next couple of weeks. Yes, I could of gotten much bigger returns but I was protected on the downside greatly. TSLA is now in the middle of it's 52 week range. it will be interesting to see what it does the rest of the year.
Just like poker. Everybody loves the big bluff or the big hero call or the big nut value hand where you get paid off. But nobody likes making or seeing the big hero fold. Cuz it's boring, uneventful, and you actually usually don't know if you were correct in folding since you don't see your opponents cards. But it's saves tremendous money if you make the big hero folds correctly.
To many traders, define movement as opportunity, even when the move does not fit their system. Elite traders have clear criteria for what they want to see, when they want to see it, and what to do when they see it.
have 101.8 avg and haven't sold, was risking pml on 1/6 on that news liquidity grab, might as well hold for long term or sell and buy back by trailing lod 1/27 or break of10ma? retest of 124 was a good add or long too.
Another poker analogy: people think they made the wrong decision on the turn or river. Nope... you made the wrong decision preflop by going to the flop with that hand. Just like trading.. you shouldn't have taken the trade at all. Now you are painfully trying to exit a crap trade.
Capitulation (action surrendering) = Mean Reversion trade once it flushes out. But careful catching falling knife by keep fading fading fading Check = Relative Strength of Price action vs QQQ (market) Heuristics: Multiple down days in a row = 3-5 days AND getting bigger drops! Vol sharply increasing = 2x prior day. Stock turnover = huge % of its float No inside bars (current bar is inside prior high & low) / periods of consolidation E.g. day stayed in tight range Note: NB: Vol nor Price both never flushed out + No 2 big down days in a row e.g. Tesla 5-7% down per day.... and then the next day NO BOUNCE MOVEs = Pure price acceptance = BIG TELL!!! TSLA dropped overall 180-190 down to 120.....in a few weeks. Price Acceptance : Days were NOT getting bigger Volume was NOT capitulating - not giving up / still high vol Multiple down days werent all in a row = pesky inside bars multiple times = Price Acceptance More downward legs (stair steps down) in a row without a BOUNCE, --> the HIGHER PROBABILITY % of a bounce to come, whereby the downward drops become increasingly steeper/larger/dramatic/sharper slope Buy: 1st part: Right side of the V down (aka downward is half of the V shape.....then turn towards upwards is right side of the V) = time to buy a little 2nd buy: Go big where new higher low & higher high (break higher high) Give to Low of Day (to swing trade overnight). Right side of V shape on intraday chart, but wasn't right side V on Daily (HTF) chart so Lance didn't hold over night. Daily = didnt capitulate.... so Lance skipped. Missed bounce = THAT IS OK!!!! Most important lesson is not being seduced by BIG moves that are NOT capitulating + matching all the characteristics for YOUR system! Biggest Takeaways (What we strive for as ELITE traders) : Develop system with edge Take trades in your system NOT trades similar or not quite good enough for them Measure whether you are avoiding those trades and sticking to your lane Elite trading isn't just about the big wins, it's about the thousands of trades you avoid over the course of a year that get underestimated!
I disagree with the leg theory. washout/fade long bounce trades is my top strategy as well. so far, from my own data, only 50% of the chance will bounce
I am sorry but still do not understand why shouldn’t we take Tesla trade now? Unlike comparing to the downside time we have guidance that might change the game plan doesn’t it? Trading is not just about technicals but also fundamental… love your content ❤
Don't believe this BS - these guys are luck learners, NOT professional - they have no strategy or tools ! If you can make money, why would you waste your time trying to teach others ??
“Because I’m greedy and selfish, I can’t imagine someone else sharing something useful with the world… therefore I’ll just make unsubstantiated judgements about them and hate on them over the Internet.” - @gren
Lance is my hero
This is exactly what happened to me. I lost half of my year last year fading TSLA with puts on the 2nd after the soft CPI release in November. TSLA bounced 10% on that day and I thought for sure it would correct to the downside as the overall trajectory was down. Big mistake. After a consistent 3rd year where I thought I was past big losses I took a karate kick to the nuts. I hindsight it was the perfect 2nd day continuation play from the SMB playbook in the free 2hr webinar and the winning trader. Lol. I was completely on tilt and almost blew up completely. I still haven’t fully recovered psychologically from it. Still here though 💪🏾
You said a lot but didnt say anything. When did you buy put and what strike price?
Good observation on an important pattern to learn Steven
@@claus1225 No, he said a lot. He just didn’t give you the details you think you need/you think he’s obligated to tell you.
Gonna rewatch this to see what you went through… I know I have lost money… it does effect the psychology. I have to use my stop loses…. Rather have a paper cut than a total train wreck…
Stay strong, Steve. My read on price action alone went wrong in my DVN trade from November. Looking back on it I decided to rethink all my trading now to include Key Numbers and Price Levels, cut my size and changed to less volatile stock until I got my confidence back. I now have a more robust trading system. There's more to it than just waving your hands and saying everything's OK now. Make a change, practice and dig down deep into your psyche. Never give up
In the intro Lance includes the US price cuts in some of the reasons for the drop in TSLA price. In fact the morning after the news of the US price drop was the absolute bottom in TSLA stock price. It went up straight from there.
The 1 thing I've learned is that volatile stocks like Tesla can only be traded with confidence long term. With short term trades I would of been down over 65%. I stayed in the trade and buckled down almost doubling my position and getting my average buy price down towards $200. I plan to ride the rebound and already I've almost made it all back. Now my position is exposed to potentially make huge gains instead of losses. All because I firmly believed in the trade and stayed strong and stayed in it despite the emotional hit and impulse to sell when you see it dropping like a rock.
thank you SMB!
That was such a great video! Good details and good lesson! I loved it! thank you, Lance!
I stay away from TSLA it gave me such a beat down last year. Wow! But thanks SMB Lance, Mike, Jason, Craig and everyone else.
TSLA was a typical example of how stock market does exactely the opposite of what is obvious to market participants. In August market rally , TSLA was one of the strong big caps. stocks in QQQ. Then while market melt during September, with QQQ printing new lows, TSLA was holding very well in a nice range.
At this point it was clear to everyone that if TSLA is holding so well in a market decline it will probably do very well when the market reverse. A lot of traders , especially in the options market were position for a what they thought it was the easy trade “A rally in TSLA”.
Ironically when the market stopped the decline, TSLA brutal selloff started, catching most of the traders with their pants down.
Thank you for the videos!
Good clip and thanks Lance.
Very interesting.....Kinda shows how difficult Trading really is.......
So good to hear what you see THANK U Lance
Absolutely awesome....... thank you Lance and SMB for the excellent content to learn from !
Appreciate the insight!
awesome video. love the dissection
Awesome breakdown! Thank you!
Thank You Lance!! This was very valuable! 🙏 Very instructive to see it through the eyes of a professional. I keep following you.✌
Thx. Greta video as always. I made just the mistake you mentioned in the video, buying the left side of the V as it looked like peak-extension to me. Hopefully, I learned my lesson and it was great hearing it from you as well.
this year i have started to improve in my trading due to increasing levels of my patience, controlling my excitement, waiting for the right setups and saying no to the trades where it doesnt make sense to me.
keep it up Daniel
Thank You Lance🙏🏼
Very grateful Lance
Lance the GOAT!
Good video and insight
Like his analyses; watching and learning
I call this volume spike "inefficiency"
Its taking more "fuel" (volume) to do the same amount of work(trending down)
This is showing that there are hidden buyers and its increasingly getting harder to make the same price movements
Thanks for sharing!
thx for watching Edwin
Love to see similar videos/analysis like this. It’s easy to find actionable insights from this video. Keep up the great work!
noted!
Hi Lance thank you for this amazing video - i def had that FOMO feeling bc like you i didn’t catch that crazy reversal in time bc i was just not convinced. Nonetheless thanks again for the amazing video and TA. you rock!
great video!!!!!!!!!!!!
Beautiful!
Fantastic
One word: EXCELLENT!
Can't get myself enough SMB! Kudos!
thx David
Thanks for the Sunday traders church session SMB! You have no idea how much I’ve learned from the content you provide the trading community .🙏 Till then 👍
Church Session haha, time to start SMB religion 🤣
These are great, Lance.
Being inside the mind of a Pro Trader trading his own system can help many traders out there.
Thank you!
Missing the bounce instead of bought low sold high through hindsight. That's a very honest lesson.
Thanks Lance for such detailed analysis. You're helping so many traders. Thanks again 🐐
Great advice. As i improve, i do notice how many more "pinto bean" setups i do not take anymore. Thank you Lance and SMB!
Thank you this was extremely helpful information. Thank you Lance and SMB for continuing to provide professional and experienced advice on proven trading strategies. This is a really cool trade setup and something I am going to be watching for during the volatile trading year of 2023. Thanks again!
Fantastic video. Thank you very much!
thx!
thx!
I did a wheel trade on TSLA. Took assignment of TSLA at 136.67 on1/20. Stock closed at 133.42 My cost basis was actually about 125 because of the premiums collected. I had covered it with a call at $150 and the stock has run through my call. I will continue to cash flow with the in the money covered call until the stock gets called away by the call. It will be a 20-25% return on my money as it will called away in the next couple of weeks. Yes, I could of gotten much bigger returns but I was protected on the downside greatly. TSLA is now in the middle of it's 52 week range. it will be interesting to see what it does the rest of the year.
Amen!
One good trade then one good trade … thank you very much
great content.
thx Josh
The reminder we all needed in place of FOMO, thanks @TheOneLanceB
Thanks guys!!!
Another great Video 🫕
LEGIT 😊👍 THX
Great video with both concepts and supporting technical examples. I learned a lot about capitulation here.
awesome :)
Again great video.
thx Bill
Just like poker. Everybody loves the big bluff or the big hero call or the big nut value hand where you get paid off. But nobody likes making or seeing the big hero fold. Cuz it's boring, uneventful, and you actually usually don't know if you were correct in folding since you don't see your opponents cards. But it's saves tremendous money if you make the big hero folds correctly.
To many traders, define movement as opportunity, even when the move does not fit their system. Elite traders have clear criteria for what they want to see, when they want to see it, and what to do when they see it.
absolutely
have 101.8 avg and haven't sold, was risking pml on 1/6 on that news liquidity grab,
might as well hold for long term or sell and buy back by trailing lod 1/27 or break of10ma? retest of 124 was a good add or long too.
Good for you. Next stop $200.
Another poker analogy: people think they made the wrong decision on the turn or river. Nope... you made the wrong decision preflop by going to the flop with that hand. Just like trading.. you shouldn't have taken the trade at all. Now you are painfully trying to exit a crap trade.
What books do you recommend to start trading?
-Synergistic Trading
-Trading in the Zone
-Controlled Trading
Lance ❤
i bought tsla 165c @0.60 thursday AM. ran 2500%
niceee
Lance B!!!
My takeaway is that TSLA didnt have its textbook daily capitulation yet. Pretty scary to think about!
the thing not everything is going to be textbook, TSLA may have bottomed at this point
TESLA is number 1 stock in market
I just had a aha moment watching this video!!!
Love to hear, mind sharing what it was?
I feel better now.
Capitulation (action surrendering) = Mean Reversion trade once it flushes out. But careful catching falling knife by keep fading fading fading
Check = Relative Strength of Price action vs QQQ (market)
Heuristics:
Multiple down days in a row = 3-5 days AND getting bigger drops!
Vol sharply increasing = 2x prior day.
Stock turnover = huge % of its float
No inside bars (current bar is inside prior high & low) / periods of consolidation
E.g. day stayed in tight range
Note:
NB: Vol nor Price both never flushed out + No 2 big down days in a row
e.g. Tesla 5-7% down per day.... and then the next day NO BOUNCE MOVEs = Pure price acceptance = BIG TELL!!!
TSLA dropped overall 180-190 down to 120.....in a few weeks.
Price Acceptance :
Days were NOT getting bigger
Volume was NOT capitulating - not giving up / still high vol
Multiple down days werent all in a row = pesky inside bars multiple times = Price Acceptance
More downward legs (stair steps down) in a row without a BOUNCE, --> the HIGHER PROBABILITY % of a bounce to come, whereby the downward drops become increasingly steeper/larger/dramatic/sharper slope
Buy:
1st part: Right side of the V down (aka downward is half of the V shape.....then turn towards upwards is right side of the V) = time to buy a little
2nd buy: Go big where new higher low & higher high (break higher high)
Give to Low of Day (to swing trade overnight).
Right side of V shape on intraday chart, but wasn't right side V on Daily (HTF) chart so Lance didn't hold over night.
Daily = didnt capitulate.... so Lance skipped. Missed bounce = THAT IS OK!!!!
Most important lesson is not being seduced by BIG moves that are NOT capitulating + matching all the characteristics for YOUR system!
Biggest Takeaways (What we strive for as ELITE traders) :
Develop system with edge
Take trades in your system
NOT trades similar or not quite good enough for them
Measure whether you are avoiding those trades and sticking to your lane
Elite trading isn't just about the big wins, it's about the thousands of trades you avoid over the course of a year that get underestimated!
good stuff Kim
🙏🙏love from indian
tesla has interesting financials going on. won't be surprising if it will be caught cooking its books
accounting tricks :)
I disagree with the leg theory. washout/fade long bounce trades is my top strategy as well. so far, from my own data, only 50% of the chance will bounce
Cumon then let see what you got !
I am sorry but still do not understand why shouldn’t we take Tesla trade now?
Unlike comparing to the downside time we have guidance that might change the game plan doesn’t it?
Trading is not just about technicals but also fundamental… love your content ❤
Don't make a fool of yourself... everybody knows the Tesla low is based on FUD.
Don't believe this BS - these guys are luck learners, NOT professional - they have no strategy or tools ! If you can make money, why would you waste your time trying to teach others ??
“Because I’m greedy and selfish, I can’t imagine someone else sharing something useful with the world… therefore I’ll just make unsubstantiated judgements about them and hate on them over the Internet.” - @gren
People make their living trading, as I do. It’s a skill to develop just like anything else.
One video per month now...🥹
we are trying to do one every week from Lance