Phase 3 Of The Florida Housing Crash
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 5 ก.พ. 2025
- Florida home prices have skyrocketed, climbing 64% since 2019, but cracks are forming in the market. Rising inventory, declining prices, and historical trends suggest we could be on the verge of another housing crisis, much like the 2008 crash. Is Florida’s real estate bubble about to burst?
I hate hearing people say 15-30 percent is a crash or a correction, these prices are so over priced we need a 50-65 percent correction to be back to normal some what.
1000%
Bro, $500,000 for a crackhouse built in the 1950s. Puh-leeze.
If home prices decline 65%, I'll be buying every house I can. Homes would cost less than pickup trucks at that point.
@PrivateMan-w9e Not going to happen. The FL markets that went crazy in 2021 and early 2022 are down about 15%, over 3 years now. That is the normal now.
@@richardjohnson8114 with more inventory coming up because they are still buying up land in florida everywhere up to build hoa neighborhoods. Even the builders are struggling to secure buyers. Yet, they keep on building. Almost like a child writing to Santa in hopes of their mom and dad getting back together, but dad is going to marry the 22 yr old he left mom for. Those builders may have to slash their prices in half to start unloading them all.
THIS IS PHILIP SIMONETTA FROM THE SACH'S VIDEO PODCAST THANK YOU FOR THE SHOUT OUT. TODD AND I WILL BE DOING AN UPDATE VIDEO ON THE FLORIDA MARKET NEXT WEEK!
We bought a house in Pembroke Pines, FL for $300,000 in 2001. We sold it in 2004 for $350,000. The last time I checked, Zillow had this house valued at 1.2 million. It's the same house.
I’m sorry 😢
@@jetlongextra , we moved out of Florida when we sold it, to a better place, so we're not complaining. Although, it would have been nice to have sold it for that when we left!
Dollar destruction surprises so many people. Thank the fed and government. It cost 350k usd in 2004. 2004 usd is very different than 2025 usd. In 2004 6.5 trillion usd in circulation. 2025 22 trillion usd in circulation.
Same here
Actually, it's not the same house. It's a house that's now 24 years older than when you original paid for it... and somehow worth x4 it's original value. Broken housing system.
The house we bought in Port Charlotte in 2021 has increased on Zillow from $272k to $300k. The house we sold in Colorado went from $441k to $650 in the same time. It's not that dramatic here in Florida -- at least in Charlotte County.
The major problem is, Americans went broke over the last 4 years. Last time the housing market crashed, Americans werent paying $100 for a couple bags of groceries.
$100 for 1. Bag of groceries in NC
In the USA, individuals living in cars due to partial homelessness result from a complex interplay of factors. High housing costs relative to income, stagnant wages, and income inequality drive this issue. Job loss, weak social support, medical expenses, evictions, and lack of affordable housing also contribute, while systemic problems and inadequate policies further perpetuate the phenomenon. The prices of homes are really quite ridiculous and Mortgage prices has been skyrocketing on a roll(currently over 7%). Sometimes i wonder if to just invest my spare cash into the stock market and wait for a housing crash or just go ahead to buy a home anyways.
Considering the present situation, diversifying by shifting investments from real estate to financial markets or gold is recommended, despite potential future home price drops. Given prevailing mortgage rates and economic uncertainty, this move is prudent, particularly due to stricter mortgage regulations. Seeking advice from a knowledgeable independent financial advisor is advisable for those seeking guidance.
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@@scalettmiriana scam
The housing market is inflated and oversaturated with homes being on the market with astronomical price tags just stagnant for months. It is very clear that our generation will be likely one of the most devastating bubble pops in modern history. Seeking best possible ways to grow 250k into $1m+ and get a good house for retirement, I'm 54.
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Sold my Florida home in July and I feel free! Besides the prices, many HOA’s put so many burdens, the quality of life here is declining rapidly. I’m now a happy renter; planning on retiring to a northern state next year (I could NEVER retire if I stayed in Florida). Absolutely no regrets.
Add also rising taxes and insurance to this mix.
Thats sad. When I was a kid n the 80's, we used to visit my Aunt and Uncle who lives in North Port. When I saw the palm trees i loved it. Then I saw their house with a pool with a pool cage and always wanted to live there. Today I'm 50, retired and would love to move to Florida but with all the people on here saying they are leaving due to high housing costs, Insurance that wont pay out when a hurricane hits, auto insurance at all time high and so many people moving there during covid made it too congested. Sadly I don't think I could afford it anymore.
$405K is twice what Charlotte County should sell for….grossly overpriced.
In my area a house can be up 65% from 2 years ago, I’m like no freaking way, I will have to sit it out until a correction if there is any.
rent until the correction
0:15 in: This is a 64% increase - the biggest bubble in American history.
0:30 in: In 2008 home prices went up 170%
The low wages in florida dont warrant the high cost of living. California has a high cost of living, but cali has high wages to go with it.
The wages don’t match the cost of living there either. Add in the high taxes and it’s worse than Florida.
Excellent video! Thank you for featuring me!
Thanks Ben! Looking forward to your 2025 updates
Realtors are pulling some tricks taking the house off the market the putting them back on resetting the days on the market
For sure…..
These are the wealthy investors controlling the news.
@spscorse All that really matters is median sales price.
People have been talking about a market "crash" in Florida for over a year now. The reality is that median home prices if FL have been remarkably stable for almost 2 years now.
If you are experienced you bought in cities, neighborhoods and locations that are Always desirable. 2020 to 2023 68.75% up, 2024 4.88 down so 2020 to 2024 63.87 appreciation. Where is the "Crash"?
If you purchased a house for the right reasons, you planned to live there for many years, then you can weather the downturn. If you are an investor or thought you'd flip the house or might get a job transfer you may be in big trouble.
These guys seem like investors.
Gotta love that Ft Myers Beach pre Ian drone videos!
How many phases to go?
Florida Wages are very low for most of ppl and don't match these high home prices something has to change either wages goes up or home 🏠 prices come down this unaffordable situation can't be forever
@verdeyoro You are neglecting the retirees that don't work at all but have the money to afford the homes, especially after liquidating their homes up north.
@richardjohnson8114 they are not the most of ppl who live here
@@verdeyoro They are enough of them to be a factor
@@richardjohnson8114 they weren't in 2007 2008 with the housing collapse happened
@@verdeyoro Exactly right. The vast majority of boomers hadn't started retiring yet. The first boomers reached 65 in 2011.
They are definitely a factor now and will continue retiring for another 6 years bringing their pensions, 401Ks and IRAs with them.
So…when are prices coming down? We are not seeing it in Tampa. Still being purchased at “COVID CRAZY” prices.
Home prices must follow inflation. If it deviates from this for too long, there's always a crash. If you go back even into the '80s the same thing happened. No amount of wishful thinking can change that because if a home is unaffordable, people can no longer buy it. Speculators and investors ran up the market the past 4 years, but that is never sustainable for more than a few years.
Agreed. I went into the Marines in 1975; every house on the block in my mom’s neighborhood was selling for $40,000. Take your pick. I came back in 1981 and every house on the block was selling for $200,000.
@@trex860how much do they cost today?
@@fadecutmike $700,000 - $750,000. Towson, Maryland.
Once fool investors (passive trend chasing speculators) are underwater/in the red, the crash will accelerate as they are forced to sell (margin call) and finally when they race to exit and avoid being last out (empty bag holder).
@XennialGuy Prices of homes are driven by supply and demand. The reason that prices went up in FL was because demand outstripped supply. As supply begins to exceed demand prices will adjust downward, but don't expect a 'crash'.
Crashes can only be told and understood by mainstream after the fact. So, if we are in 3rd inning, and the crash is happening RIGHT NOW, where are we compared to the GFC? Would love to see a video on that. Like, is 2025 now 2008 and the crash is just starting? And we will have 3-4 years of downside coming up?
Who is saying it's a crash ,it's a correction which is way past due..
@AW-um2jg It's a correction from the 2022 over inflation, not a crash
I'm in St Pete. FOR SALE signs everywhere in the low lying areas that just got flooded. Good luck affording the insurance.
What do you think the insurance goes for per year and what would the mortgage be?
Yeah depressing especially Shore Acres
When you can't pay insurance>> Foreclosure,
Banks sell to Fannie Mae>> buy for a song.
Most can't afford Florida anymore, so increase supply makes sense.
I live in FL. I own my house, completely paid for.
Yet...
I am hoping for a crash - fervently.
It is absolutely NECESSARY, so the (young) people who live and WORK here, can afford(!) to stay here, raise a family and be content and happy.
House prices MUST come in line with wages, otherwise our entire infrastructure will rot and decay.
I personally have been in a situation owning a cafe in the downtown of a European capital and because of the explosion of Airbnbs, the young couldn't afford anymore to live in the city; long term rental became scarce and EXPENSIVE. Therefore I had enormous problems hiring help.
It is already happening in FL. I had some trusted and good people I needed for various tasks, from time to time, but many of them left FL - they can no longer AFFORD to live here because of the housing.
So again: A crash is much wanted, needed, and welcomed.
Prices, always, always regress to the long term mean...
Many videos talking about this yet I don't see any crash.
3:36 gold
Charlotte county is so overbuilt, there's no major jobs/employers. It's all about jobs. It's spillover from Sarasota, and even North Port is in a similar spot being in Sarasota county
The homeowner insurance is through the roof because of the increasingly frequent - and increasingly effective - hurricanes. But the condos have a second issue being supersize special assessments. That's because of new laws having to do with HOAs having to keep a stash of money for the inevitable repairs to foundations because of corrosion. See "surfside collapse" for details.
So, with condos piling up in the fire sale department, those special assessments are a HUGE deterrent! Owners can't seem to give them away. I would love to be a condo developer. Buy a building for next to nothing, knock it down, then build a building of luxury condos but with a foundation featuring _stainless steel_.
Exactly where in Florida is the crash ? I live in Cape Coral and I’m still waiting to see any crash ?
Hoa are hitting residents with 90k assessments all over
No they aren't, a few are.
Forget about 2008. What caused that was a deflationary crash. No such condition is present today. Asset prices are producing a wealth effect that enables property prices to remain high because buyers are flush with cash.
Last housing crash had a catalyst behind it. What’s the catalyst on this one?
Affordability. Ever since private equity and baby boomer speculators bought up all the starter homes for the past 10 years to do a 2x flip, affordability has become non existent for your average buyer. If the majority of people can't afford to buy at current prices, then price will have to come down in order to get these houses sold.
Commercial Real Estate and Banking system
Mortgage rates going from 2.65% to 7.10%. The market has been reacting slowly to these higher rates because it was originally considered "temporary" with the thought that " I can refinance next year".
No crash ,just a correction..
@@jonathantaylor6926I’ve been watching FL for about 4 years. In many of the outer lying areas of central Fl, houses are off their 22-23 peak and have come down.
The ability to refinance is lost when they buyer, who bought at peak pricing, loses that few percentage points of equity. This is the problem with the idea of marry the house and date the rate.
Unless you are putting in over 20%, a refi, one point lower on a 400k house that drops to 390, really won’t save anything once they are burdened with PMI on the refi.
Inventory levels have gone through the roof compared to where they were in 20-23. My 50 mile radius search went from 10k listings to nearly 35k listings. Buyers have choices, which will hurt a lot of bottom lines on those that bought in the last 2 years.
I’m not touching FL until I see prices go down / correct another 45% from 1/1/2025 prices
I'm in Florida, not far from Cape Canaveral. The home prices here continue to soar. While it is an exceptional area, it seems like it has to hit a ceiling some day. Hoping hosing comes down.
Buyers market but folks still want hefty prices
Buyer’s market but no buyers. The Insurance Companies won’t even take the risk. Florida/California……..ni loco (not even if I was crazy)!
There a price for a home not related to inventory or demand. That price is cost for land, labour and materials to build a home.
Any price relative to that base price is based on demand, availability and emotion.
Show me that materials and labour have not gone up!
prices aren't correcting, you're just seeing the prices of hurricane flooded homes....
Still counts
I’m seeing flippers lose over $200K on some of there flips this year in palm beach county
The only solution is more inventory. There is a housing shortage according to every real estate agent.
This channel is a clown show. I thought housing prices were going to crash in every year since 2015 according to this clown. Ridiculous
Not sure where Zillow gets this -1.5% data, they show most values down 20% (since the peak in 2022) in their "Zestimate". Ahhhh, you had Ben on, he's absolutely right!
zillow lost hundred of millions of dollars flipping houses a few years ago because they bought too high.
Now you think its numbers are accurate? Do a google search and thank me later.
We investors never ever use zillow data
Cape Coral / Ft Myers is down about 15% from the 2022 peak
Don’t you ever get tired about being WRONG!!! I know I am….
70 degrees today
Dude, your videos offer very little value nowadays
Zillow says my house declined 15% in past 30 days!
People are still moving here ,
Good info
Absolutely misleading data - to not distinguish between condo prices and single family homes leaves you with totally misleading statitistics.
Drill for oil off the east coast and east coast of the Gulf of America! Drill, baby, drill! That should be great especially for beach front homes!😛
Yes, folks just love to move into a house that had been flooded ...
Now do Utah
A key factor often overlooked is that over 25% of new homes are being acquired by investors, rather than individuals seeking primary residences. Even if Baby Boomers decide to offload their properties or more housing stock enters the market, it won't alleviate the underlying issue. Wealthy investors will continue to absorb the available inventory, which will keep home prices elevated.
There's also a lack of discussion about the role that major financial institutions-banks, private equity firms, and giants like BlackRock-played by purchasing properties post-2008, treating them as investment assets. It's impossible to fully understand the current housing crisis without acknowledging this trend. Additionally, larger luxury properties are inherently more profitable than smaller, more affordable homes, leading developers to prioritize luxury developments for higher returns.
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Florida housing bubble, bruh 🤠
Brace, brace, brace . . . the Boeing economy.
Vahl Tile
doom, doom, nothing but doom from you.
Ahhhh yes, the yankees move here, then constantly complain about everything
Mental hopscotch
Housing doesn't "crash" you slackjaw. Real estate isn't stock. 🤣
Florida is a sad joke.
Reading dry statistics MIGHT NOT be as engaging as you seem to think.
Yaaawwwwwnnnn
There was 10 months of supply during the 2008 crash. Currently there is a very balanced market at around 6 months.
“Currently” being the operative word.
Supply has risen as we speak.. the scary part is in 2008 a 2 story home was $280k and that was a lot in 2019 in a great area we’re $400k now they are going for $700k no matter how bad the area is.
Look at the numbers of new homes that are finished.... and many of them are not on the MLS. The supply would be much higher right now if it were not for the Government intervention. Even with that intervention, there are still a growing number of delinquencies. They manipulate the numbers, but it is getting more and more difficult to cover up. Our entire economy is one big extend and pretend, particularly in CRE and Res RE. When you see the Fed have emergency rate cuts, you know it is getting bad. China and Japan stopped buying our treasuries, so the Fed will also need to monetize the debt in an attempt to keep the long end of the curve down.
Until I see supply actually get into the 10 month category I’m not getting my hopes up. That’s just me. I’ve been waiting 5 years.
@@kellykell9620 I have been waiting since end of 2018 when I first noticed it in my charts. Who knew they would pump trillions and trillions into the economy. The firehose is wearing off and the layoffs are starting to pile up. Massive numbers of business closures are starting, and last year was a high number of bankruptcies. They are running out of ways to pump liquidity without the rest of the world noticing. China and Japan are the number one and 2 holders of US bonds, and they shed them last year, essentially backing away from the risk they pose.
Our whole economy is based on debt/credit and that credit has been declining. They manipulated the jobs and other data (just like the lead up to 2008-09). This is going to get ugly. Good luck to you.
One thing that’s wrong with this is you’re saying Tampa and Miami are crashing and been saying it for the last 10 years….
Tampa will not crash, Punta Gorda and other areas like this will.
Miami will not crash, the Punta Gorda of Miami will.
the issue is the “time on market”.. those numbers are exploding and have been signaling trouble.. trouble is here