Careful though, he just stated around minut 9 that "we doont have any reasons to doubt our chinese medical brothers in their reporting"... Sounds a bit too naive and fakenews to me, given how china has the last word in all those numbers published
Wrong to be congratulating and thanking him because he is constantly down playing this - as a result the dumbasses get support for mixing with large numbers of strangers & continuing with public events while we wait for what logically is highly likely to hit the West, and we can't take the steps to control it that we see in China,
@@harryconsu3746 downplaying by using the only logical and credible evidence given to the public? This isn't an ideal situation obviously and lots of people are covering up, but this man is not, don't confuse facts and opinions.
@@harryconsu3746 He's not downplaying shit. The world isn't going to end like you want it to, doomer. Will millions die? Of course. But the world will survive this. We're a resilient species.
Kind sir, you have done incredible work to educate us all. I can't begin to thank you. When I saw the numbers from JH website last night my heart ached. You have allowed us the privilege of education and asked nothing in return. May Our Lord keep you safe and blessed.
Just woke up 2:30 am here. I leave the radio on, and woke to catch the tail end of the all news station saying something about the virus. Sounded like it said something about people who were exposed to the virus, or doctors and nurses, or people who survived the virus *shall be microchipped* WHAT??? I need to listen if they repeat that.
A funeral worker in Hubei yesterday said that 66% of pick ups were people that died at home. So whatever the amount dying at hospitals, twice that are dying at home, and therefore not counted.
Yes and people are dying there of "ordinary" illnesses and accidents because they avoid hospitals and even if they go there it lacks treatments - horrendous
Well some people will die at home from other causes but in regards to the Wuhan crematorium worker she did say 8 confirmed infected dead and 48 unconfirmed (I presume suspected) dead from a total of 120 dead in a single day at her facility. Only the confirmed infected dead count towards the official figures and there are 49 crematoriums in Wuhan.
@Kiwihouse2005 B. if that were true, there would be corpses left out in the street at the crematariums or near the home. Remember a significant number of people do not have a car in the household as one reason, another is the expectation that it is simply futile to take it to the crematorium.
i like how everyone is like "TEN things about the NEW coronavirus that WILL SCARE YOU!!", and then theres this guy just randomly naming videos "good morning", "thursday", and such
The given death rate reflects those diagnosed and treated as per the guidelines set by Chinese authorities and sadly we don’t know when the fatalities will start to even out. Even with today’s update about 1000 people recovered and about 200 died which is still at an alarming 20% mortality of end result cases.
@ you are blaming immigrants when in fact immigrants are a net benefit to the economy and to the tax rolls. I don't care about your wrong economics, but your xenophobia is obvious and disgusting.
@ I think you are on the wrong channel.This is for people interested in evidence based data and what we can learn from it.If you are looking to have a racist rant with a good helping of wooley thinking hysteria I.m sure there are plenty of sites that would suit you better
on this topic, or completely? If this virus runs it's course and we come out the othere side, I'll be relieved if he is able to stop discussing this and continues with his normal videos
@Porsche Girl are you saying A) he doesn't know what he is talking about, B) he has a Ph.D. but no MD or C) we must stop watching his videos because he has a Ph.D. but no MD?
I still think this is an ethnic specific bioweapon targeted at Han Chinese DNA. Wrecks havoc on the Chinese the hardest although anyone can get it and be a carrier.
Dear Dr. John, Thank you for your daily updates. It's been a comfort to a have an independent voice I can trust during this crisis. I'm messaging you from Hanoi, Vietnam. Here schools have been closed for two weeks, but information is difficult to come by from the communist government here. There has been speculation that when the weather gets hotter the disease will become less transmissible and ultimately spread will reduce in the tropics, do you have any information about that? Best wishes to you, Sam
Sometimes this can be the case, the warmer weather can cause a lull in spread but can come back again in the winter. However, what we know about this virus at present is so limited that we really don't know what it will do under different conditions. Sorry I cant be more helpful. I'm an epidemiologist so if you have any questions I post little updated on my channel and you can leave any questions on there and i can try to help with them.
People at 2 hospitals in buffalo ny have corona virus, my family works at one of the hospitals treating them. But cdc and ny government aren’t releasing any information on suspected or confirmed cases.
The United States Government will suppress facts like the Chinese Government is. Governments sit in high places. They must have their citizen/slaves working and performing to keep the matrix system rolling onward. If people panic, and more and more refuse to go out and work..... society stops. Nobody maintaining electricity systems or public water systems, sewage systems. No gas or electricity to cook. It could be very hellish. Additionally, government may lose complete control of the overlord positions.
@Dojocho I don't get that, I quit smoking a month ago (after 10 years) and the impression I got was that the improvement in lung function is quite stark, especially the further out you go.
Very suspect and unnatural for smokers to be hit exponentially harder from a particular virus ....it’s like thanos deciding who should and shouldn’t be alive
Thank you for being kind and showing empathy when you are explaining. This shows the humanity of the awful Wuhan NovalCoronavirus. Peace to All On Earth
Singapore: 50 confirmed cases 15 recovered 35 still in hospital (8 intensive care) 0 deaths. The percentage in intensive care (16%) is worrying. Singapore represents a significant case to monitor
If you have 16% of any significant population needing intensive care, you reach saturation of resources to the point that simply needing intensive care means you die. That is Wuhan at the moment.
It's 16% of cases but still a significant amount that will mean more fatality. Looking at spread on the Diamond Princess Cruise ship there are now 214 cases testing positive that's around 6% of the 3600 so far.
Allan Gibson, I think that number is optimistic. In every hospital in the US, including large teaching medical centers, there may be 1-3 critical care beds open, every day. The other beds are already occupied. And while there are MICU, CCU, SICU, TICU, and step down units in the largest of hospitals, I think you can figure out how many critically ill patients will max out the US medical system.
@@bluewaters3100 The Chinese Government has been locking everyone else out to support a Chinese self sufficiency narrative with the CCP as the master. WHO only got permission to send a research team this week to China.
Thank you for making things clairer for people like me, that otherwice would be lost in all thise academean languish. Thank you for the efford and time Thank you :-)
I’m a nurse and I’m going to confess something. My gut instinct is telling me that the situation is very bad and we could be facing a major pandemic. And I’m afraid. If it affects my area, I’ll be on the front lines. My closest friends who are also nurses and doctors will be on the front lines. I have sick people in my family who could be exposed. I’m being as rational as I can about this- I’m following the research as it comes out, and making some plans to protect myself and my loved ones in case the situation should (God forbid) deteriorate. In the mean time I’m going to just have to get on with life. But inside, I’m afraid.
Julia Lin I agree, please be careful and prepare is what you can do. Nurses, doctors and all people working in the medical field are great people that we that work in other fields are very lucky to have to take care of us. Good luck
I really hope that everyone in this comments section is also watching Medcram's videos. He is a pulmonary specialist and makes excellent videos. His latest video, Coronavirus Update 16, is especially interesting. Basically, if we sleep more we can help our bodies fight off the virus. He explains it really well in layman's terms too, so it's easy to understand how. (I posted this on an older video, but I thought I'd post it on a new video too so more people see it).
Yes I saw that. Sleeping is easy, free and increases our bodies immune system so we can fight it off better. And sleeping between the hours of 10pm and 2am were especially important. (think I met that as I just woke at 2:33 am.)
I am so glad i have found this channel i live in Thailand and daily temps in the Northeast are around 36Degs lets hope these temps hold this virus at bay, I will still take precautions for myself and family. No hand gel available in any of the big stores tesco macro etc, but masks have reappeared in 7-11 .There is little factual information out there, that is why i appreciate the wisdom contained in these videos , Many thanks Dr Campbell your work and dedication is much appreciated.
It is important to remember that the history of pandemics is a history filled with official underestimations of the severity of the illness. We should expect no better today. There are a lot of reasons for this. The WHO is not now, nor has never, acted with public health as its top priority. They were politicized at inception and have remained so. Their top priority is keeping the global economy going. There are some legitimate reasons for this including and economic collapse could make things significantly worse and I am not here to debate what the WHO priorities should be. I am here to say that the WHO is categorically NOT what the WHO claims it is. If we keep this in mind and understand what the WHO really is as opposed to what they claim to be, we can make more educated decisions from national policy to individual protection. China has a similar motivation as the WHO and are intentionally keeping official numbers at a fraction of the real numbers. The best evidence support a minimum of 600k infected with 10k deaths if you look at the test kits provided vs what they medical professionals in china say they need, the provided kits are 10% of the need. There are other estimates from knowledgeable sources that estimate 1.5 million infected with 50k dead. The truth is probably in the middle somewhere but regardless, it is orders of magnitude worse than the CCP says. The public health officials in the west are now slowly hinting this will not be contained. This means "This will not be contained". Prepare for a global pandemic that will infect hundreds of millions worldwide. We don't know what percentage it will kill yet, but it doesn't look good. We also don't know if spring and summer will cause the virus to retreat for a time, only to come back with another wave next fall. I believe wisdom dictates that we all prepare for something on the order of the 1918 Spanish flu and pray to God that nothing close to that bad becomes a reality.
I was thinking yesterday that everyone who is high enough up to have the real data probably knows that this can't be stopped and it's a matter of when, not if. If you knew that, what would you do? If you say it publicly, you'll have a run on food (which we're apparently short on due to bad weather in North America last year and locusts in some parts of the world and bush fires in Australia) and possibly riots and other break down of social order. If people become nutrient deficient due to a lack of food, then that will make the population more susceptible when it hits. You will also cause the economy to crash, which will panic even more people, and people who are out of work have time to riot. They may just be trying to delay the inevitable, hoping that will soften the blow, or at least shorten the overall period of suffering. And wasn't that the conclusion from the Event 201 scenario? That in the face of an untreatable pandemic, you try to keep the economy, at least, normal for as long as possible? Kind of like the band playing while the Titanic is sinking.
Fabulous Dr Campbell you have you’re adverts back. I’ve let them play so you get the funds you so much deserve for keeping us so well informed. 👏🏻👏🏻 May I ask if anyone has seen Boris Johnson make a speech on this pandemic? Because I can’t find one. I think 🤔 because he is the leader of our country he should be saying something but it’s just his health minister. And really he’s not saying much.....
an outbreak plays into the anti-globalisation and also climate change sentiment, really they (including Donald Trump) won't make a noise because everything seems to play out on their side for no apparent reason. Border & identity centric affirmative action is trending now for myriad of logical reason.
Your videos are absolutely fabulous! I am thinking about giving them to my students so they can learn from you how to do high-quality research into ongoing developments. Thank you so much!
Singapores experience to date with COVID-19 seems to be a counter argument to the theory that Summer and Spring temperatures will mitigate R-naught or virility
It’s sad to think that in the darker ages, when disease, famine, plagues took place, there was no means to communicate and report meaningful information and now in 21st century the technology is there and the powers that be choose to not report or under-report. The very agencies we have in place to deal with this type of thing (CDC, WHO, etc.) is not really of any valuable help at all. They were the ones who were supposed to shine at a time like this and take control and give direction. This is all on a grand scale, the likes of which the world has not had to deal with forever, but there needs to be true leadership. Report not facts and figures. That is really nothing of importance. Refusing help is not going to solve anything. People have become so immersed in wealth and greed and trade that the humanitarian side is second thought. I know mass panic doesn’t need to ensue but give us truths and help us do what we all need to do to help each other get through this.
It's because they don't want to create widespread panic. We have a right to know how bad this truly is. They think it's better to keep the information hidden away. Sooner or later we'll find out when everyone around us catches the virus.
I saw first masks here in Finland. We have one known case that is said to be recovered. I have to admit, I did not ask the reason for that mask though. We people here in Finland, we do not speak to each others.
Dr John , I listen to you only as I trust your evidence based concerns , calculations , and information as my stand alone go to . Thank you so much good Doctor
Hi doctor, good science on this channel. I lived in China for 24 years. The difference you see today should be due to a criteria recount and some recalculation, as far as I read official news. Regards
Thank you, Dr. John. My only hope, I fear, is accidental prophylaxis from 40 years of chronic Cannabis use. (Sigh) Alas; how ironic would THAT be? 😎👍🏼 Had to share: humor is crucial in times of plague, as I'm sure you'd agree. Thank you for your wisdom, your calm, and your honesty. May angels surround you. 🙏🏼
Your information explained in such a calm, factual way is reassuring to me. Thank you very much for your hard work. I have never smoked but have copd with a chronic cough for 25 years. Coughing for 25 years is difficult. I think of how I would be received if I was near an outbreak and what my risks would be. I am 70 retired RN and live in a small FL beach city. I am able to stay at home most of the time and not get exposed to much. I have subscribed to a grocery delivery plan if things get worse. I feel so very sad for the patients and medical staff in China. Glad to see the experts in Geneva getting their collective brilliant brains to work.
I haven't had a flu bug in 4 decades, when I was a kid. I can't recall last time I even had a cold. I don't have random coughs like so many people do on any average day. Headaches, running nose, etc just doesn't happen with me. My father was the same. I know I'm lucky. Some people in this world will have a hell of an immune system. I got on a very intense health kick years ago. I'm sure this kind of a lifestyle should be positive. Too many man made chemicals in the body diverts one's immune system. The body is busy trying to identify and deal with man made chemicals instead of dealing with other intruders.
@@tripplefives1402 I think he's referring to the Chinese Dr the govt. ignored for over a month, because the Chinese Govt. didn't want to spoil the spring festival.
I've heard it said in previous videos that the stronger the immune system, the stronger the immune response, leading to a more severe pneumonic stage. (Fits with the bio weapon angle - targeting a country's fighting force).
You really ought to be using a denominator representing the size of the infection pool 2-4 weeks ago, as that was the size of the infection pool when these fatalities were originally infected. Newly infected patients will not be entering the phase of potentially fatal consequences for another 2-4 weeks from now (probably more like 3-6 weeks). While infection pool size and mortality are both increasing at a geometric rate, they are both reflecting disease at potentially different stages of development.
John, we've calculated case fatality rates 2-4% (for healthy folks aka non-smoker/ diabetic/ cardiac it's ~1.8% vs unhealthy 3.6%). China wasn't reporting deaths like they're reporting "clinically diagnosed" cases now; if a pt died before test, it wasn't counted as a covid death. Also, reports of increasing home deaths & corpses being carried out are confirmed across China. Some videos on Twitter show coffin boxes lining the street. Folks are choosing to stay home even when sick bc they've seen what happens if they report their illness. They'd be taken to a crowded hospital & their friends/ family will be tested or taken by cops or military in boxes & forcibly quarantined or locked in homes. The long quarantine can cost them their jobs & even pets. Please note Univ of HK expert just stated in an interview that Covid is proving UNLIKE SARS & is already spreading in warm Singapore & Thailand
I concur with your point about racial differences in certain receptors. When I ran clinical trials for a general medicines division of a drug company (mainly cardiac & pulmonology treatments), the Japanese health authority required us to run separate trials in Japan for some drugs and indications bc they believed the racial differences were significant enough to impact drug efficacy.
Civil unrest and lack of public cooperation is the price of keeping the public in the dark. If you partner with the public, more likely they will partner with you.
OMG, the amount of disinformation going around is appalling. I’m in Shanghai , I’ve already gone back to work on Monday. People are encouraged no to go out if necessary, so the streets is a little more empty than usual. People are not dropping dead in the streets. We are not in a living hell as you described and I would be very appreciated if you could stop spreading unverified information like this. Because, you know, NOT HELPING.
@@yuanzhengsun9268 With respect you are in Shanghai, not one of the hardest hit areas - are you disputing the legitimacy of the plentiful videos of bodies being left in the streets to be collected or of vans collecting bodies from buildings with multiple other bodies already present in the van? Are you suggesting they have been staged or faked?
You Doc, are an unbiased voice of Sanity during this crazy thing, and I have been watching all of your videos you have made about the virus. I am hoping we get through this ok.
Keep your body and immunity in the best condition :) lots of fruit, vegetables, nuts, seeds, legumes, seaweed and whole grains. Take vitamin b12 (cyanocobalamin) and vitamin D3 supplements. Look for D3 that comes from lichen (a fungi-algae symbiosis), that's the best source.
Ephesians 6:18 18 In the same way, prayer is essential in this ongoing warfare. Pray hard and long. Pray for your brothers and sisters. Keep your eyes open. Keep each other's spirits up so that no one falls behind or drops out
Wed 13th Feb... Ah, I guess desperate times cause for desperate measures when it comes to evading youtube's algorithmically driven censorship and obfuscation regime ;)
@Han Lockhart Their still dropshipping from China, I would NOT order anything from Amazon, Many Amazon seller's buy wholesale from China and have it stored in their garage or warehouse also. One type of wholesale is called Private Label, they buy an item for cheap, slap their name on it and put it on Amazon as their own product, completely legal and is how Amazon makes so much money. I know for fact Amazon seller's do, maybe shopify too. Please if you can don't buy from there, theres many other places online.
For people not aware how Amazon really works, just look into "how to sell on Amazon or how to private label, how to find trusted source in China for wholesale"..
I love the way you end these videos. No goodbyes or anything, just abruptly turn around to the side and it's back to work on the computer. End of video.
Dr Campbell, can you actually calculate CFR using the 70k-ish number? The reason I ask this is, those who haven't expired nor recovered have the potential of either expiring or recovering still. We don't know what that 70k of confirmed people will actually do. Yet we're saying because they are still currently living, we're going to use that to model against. That doesn't seem right. Using recovered vs expired would seem to be a better bit of math at this point, would it not? Which is roughly 18-20% as of Feb 12th 2020.
Heath T Dear Sir, what you fail to understand is that the good doctor has been doing this repeatedly on his channel, and has wholly failed to explain himself. Your question and your reasoning are, however, faultless.There would be a certain percentage of folk still recovering, having narrowly escaped the jaws of death. That would bring the death rate down to around 15%. The point the GP beautifully omits to mention, is that a UK health system overwhelmed with 20% of severe and critical cases would be in the same dilemma as China, and his 1% death rate would be exposed for what it is: wishful thinking.
@@edithflood631 it's not just him doing it though. I'm seeing it elsewhere as well. It makes absolutely no sense to me. At least I'm not alone in my thinking. I'd love a simple explanation though.
@@edithflood631 He explained that two weeks ago. Using deaths over recovered is even less reliable than deaths over infections since recovery generally has a much longer lag than a death. This is demonstrable that for a considerable period of time that deaths vastly outweighed recoveries, which if you took the numbers just over a week ago would show the fatality:recovery ratio to be 50:1, possibly even higher.
@@SamuelHill94 I understand what you're saying. However, I disagree with the logic behind it. You don't just change the math because you're lacking data. You give the facts as they are, whether you like them or not. Then as more data comes in, your equation remains the same but the result begins to normalize. Finally, once you have enough data sets and enough time passes, you get an actual ratio without your equation ever changing. If in 2032 there's a CoVID32 and 100 confirmed cases in the first 6 month. Then all 100 die from it. It has a 100% CFR. End of story. That's reality. Then 6 months later, we know how to treat CoVID32. After 10,000 cases, with those 100 being the only to die from it, the CFR is 1%. That's the same reality and the same math. I'm not a PhD or MD but I like to believe I'm intelligent enough to apply logic and humble enough to ask for help when I'm at a loss. I asked for help but the logic is flawed. I'll stand behind the Recovered:Expired math yielding ~19% CFR, until someone can logically explain why we're changing variables.
@@xmarine73 if yoi wanted to use the CFR as a predictor of the deadly outcome for someone who got the infection i.e. how likely they are to die, it has to be dead/total number of infected
Yeah, it is actually pretty complicated to get the correct Case Fatality Rate while the epidemic is still running. See medicalsciences.stackexchange.com/questions/20970/is-the-mortality-rate-of-2019-ncov-41 for a pretty good discussion about it.
I followed the links provided above. In a nutshell there are two answers. (1) The Kool Aid answer of 1% or 2% where you divide deaths by total cases, and (2) the Scary answer of 30% +, where you divide deaths by recovered patients, which is also wrong because of ongoing unresolved patients being excluded. If serious/critical cases are between 18% to 25% then deaths cannot exceed this percentage. In an epidemic overwhelming hospitals, pressurized oxygen therapy is unavailable and death rate skyrockets. Dr Campbell ignores this. I estimate a death rate of 12% to 15% as the juncture of the trajectories of the above two faulty methods.
"Now, um, I hesitate to put this next one in, but..." You just caught some people's attention. *puts on foil hat* 😂 But seriously, thanks for the update, sir.
Great discussion and I follow all your videos. I want to weigh in on discussions focused on fatality rate. I think the focus needs to consider the problem of high morbidity - 15% are serious cases requiring medical intervention such as admission to ICU and oxygen. Clearly this has resulted in health care facilities being overwhelmed, unable to care for everyone. If health care systems are overwhelmed, the fatality rate is expected to be higher for serious cases but how much higher? Once medical establishment is overwhelmed, how will this affect medical care for conditions not related to Covid19 (indirect fatalities)? Based on what we know, as spotty as it is currently, there is consensus that this is highly infectious/transmissible with characteristics that work against containment efforts. This suggests that global pandemic is probable despite what seems a small caseload outside China - but this may be due to long incubation, most mild to no symptoms (but still infectious) and the time required to establish a community self sustaining propagation. Once established, expect things to progress like in China where they are overwhelmed. It is the ability of Covid19 to defeat containment efforts and once established, overwhelm medical care institutions that are primary concerns of mine for these reasons: 1) Covid19 is highly transmissible in ways that can defeat containment efforts and may result in extreme strategies, including martial law - we are heading that direction. 2) Collapse of medical care availability will adversely affect fatality rates for serious cases 3) Collapse of medical systems will adversely affect fatality rates for other conditions 4) Draconian policies to contain outbreak with faltering medical systems risks civil disorder on a scale not seen in modern times. For planning purposes, the priorities should be getting good data to understand what to expect so we can prepare as best we can. When we know so little and the public gets few answers and the longer that continues, the harder maintain/regain public trust and cooperation. Fear of the unknown is an enemy we should be tackling now and the new numbers are a step in the right direction. Give the public the real deal as much as feasible because not to do so means we pay more dearly in the weeks ahead.
This is a very thoughtful comment! What seems to me is that the spread of the virus in countries of the Western hemisphere could be slower than in China due to better living standards (hygiene, population density etc). Maybe still now slow enough to allow for healthcare to take good care of patients with complications. But the potential spread in poor countries is very concerning
Thank you Sofia. Yes, that was my thoughts too, but Hong Kong and Singapore are both showing sustained outbreak now. Singapore is wealthy advanced disciplined population with strict no nonsense government, but they have 8 new cases - total is 58. Hong Kong comes in second with 3 new cases for a total 53 confirmed. Then there is the cruise ship with over 200 cases and it will go higher as they test all 3,700. What the three have in common is very high density population confined to a small area which is classic - this is where a pandemic is expected to spread in early stages from initial epicentre. There are half a dozen countries that are sustaining new cases right behind Singapore and Hong Kong. Declaration of pandemic in just a matter of days now. You have my prayers, stay safe, stay well, and please prepare yourself and loved ones for what is to come.
A different strategy to the one you suggest is being unrolled in Western democracies. That is, to reassure the population, and downplay the numbers by using statistical methodologies. Dividing the total deaths by total case count to attain a low death rate is the big gun in this approach.
Hi Sofia. Singapore has 11 new cases not 8. The number of new cases is rising where two weeks ago 1 or 2 cases, then 2 to 3, than 4, then 8. Now, we have 11 in one day. The exponential rise in cases will become more apparent when the numbers get larger which is the transition from establishment of self sustaining propagation to break out when containment efforts largely fail. Note that Singapore and Hong Kong have by far the highest density of population per square kilometre then any other state with an appreciable population - The cruise ship is 3,700 people in a ship that is 1/40 of a square kilometre making it more densely populated than any nation state by far and the population and densities are: Cruise ship: 3,700 population, density/sqr.km. 150,000: cases 223 Singapore: 5,850,000 population, density/sqr.km. 8,360: cases 58 Hong Kong: 7,500,000 population, density/sqr.km. 7,140: cases 53 The population of Singapore, Hong Kong and cruise ship are together just under 14 million yet these 3 account for 334 out of the 590 cases outside Mainland China. Epidemiologists would not be surprised as this is consistent with geographic spread of a novel outbreak.
I'm so thankful to the good Doctor for these non-sensational, informative videos. The information has helped me prepare for whatever may come without panic, but with forethought. I've got basic supplies in for the family in case we need to be quarantined. My feeling is it probably won't reach our area in any large numbers - I don't live in a huge metropolis or anything - but it's a good feeling to be prepared just in case. The food I've stored is stuff we eat anyway, so if/when nothing happens, it will all be eaten eventually, no waste. =) So thank you, Dr., for the peace of mind.
Thank you for your well thought out and put together information sir!. A breath of fresh air among mainstream media telling us "there is nothing to see here" and independent media yelling " it's the end of the world the sky is falling"! I just want as many facts as I can find so I can think through the rest myself. I'm tired of being mis-informed or flat out lied to about this situation and many more. Thank you again for just giving us the best information you can find without bias or leading us one way or the other.
If you were a Chinese citizen, would you trust them to diagnose and treat you accordingly in light of what we have witnessed in video and read in news reports?
China has zero credibility. Once you start adjusting data to try to fit a narrative it makes that data almost useless. The cruise ship suffers because China was not honest about its numbers and were hesitant to share any real data. I hope the ccp crumbles and the Chinese people get their country back.
Absolutely not, but progress is being made for the recovered so it's something at least. gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
in a recent interview, a scientist from oxford said, his colleagues say that it is a guess, that in the summer months the virus is not able to spread as well, but they simply don’t know.
Singapore & Vietnam are the places to watch for that theory. Current temps are hot and humid, (this week: low 80's Vietnam -- upper 80's Singapore). They're reporting infections...Now, whether it will spread is the question.
The WHO were saying it was going down until Hubei authorities changed the method by which cases were being confirmed (to include cases diagnosed clinically and via CT scan) - because of this there was a sudden jump in numbers yesterday
China has given out a new definition of infected/deaths/suspected that's why, as the disease progresses authorities probably have to do it again as our understanding improves.
There are ppl there taking fever reducing meds so they can leave.with this happening its going to be rough.and i read sone where incubation could be around 24 days look well and still be infected.your thoughts
I think part of why I love this channel so much is that if I were still taking high school biology/anatomy, this would be the type of channel I would get info from. The educational experience is so apparent and I love it
my "go to" source on the Covid19, I don't waste my time with the Drama everywhere else. Thank you Dr.
I am with you
Totally agree. The calm voice of sanity in all the craziness.
Careful though, he just stated around minut 9 that "we doont have any reasons to doubt our chinese medical brothers in their reporting"...
Sounds a bit too naive and fakenews to me, given how china has the last word in all those numbers published
@@rronaldreagan have you ever heard of something called 'sarcasm'?
AMEN to that!
You will be forever known as the "Good Dr" by all of us after this hopefully blows over. Thank you for your work every single day of upload.
That's what I've been calling him as well. The Good Doctor who is educating all of us. Stay safe & best wishes!
Wrong to be congratulating and thanking him because he is constantly down playing this - as a result the dumbasses get support for mixing with large numbers of strangers & continuing with public events while we wait for what logically is highly likely to hit the West, and we can't take the steps to control it that we see in China,
@@harryconsu3746 downplaying by using the only logical and credible evidence given to the public? This isn't an ideal situation obviously and lots of people are covering up, but this man is not, don't confuse facts and opinions.
@@harryconsu3746 He's not downplaying shit. The world isn't going to end like you want it to, doomer. Will millions die? Of course. But the world will survive this. We're a resilient species.
Kind sir, you have done incredible work to educate us all. I can't begin to thank you. When I saw the numbers from JH website last night my heart ached. You have allowed us the privilege of education and asked nothing in return. May Our Lord keep you safe and blessed.
shelly bay beautifully said. My thoughts exactly.
shelly bay nice to meet you gorgeous, you like blind youtube dates? Say yes im corona free, love you
Well said Shelly Bay
Every morning, coffee and the good dr.
Just woke up 2:30 am here. I leave the radio on, and woke to catch the tail end of the all news station saying something about the virus. Sounded like it said something about people who were exposed to the virus, or doctors and nurses, or people who survived the virus *shall be microchipped* WHAT??? I need to listen if they repeat that.
@Adil Alfa He's not a medical doctor. He's a nurse.
Same
With coffee in my hands. Your comment made me smile:)
Sorry Maria, but i coughed into coffee pot. you now have covid19. good luck
I wake up....and see what Dr. John has uploaded.
This is my life now.
A voice of reason in the madness.
A funeral worker in Hubei yesterday said that 66% of pick ups were people that died at home. So whatever the amount dying at hospitals, twice that are dying at home, and therefore not counted.
Yes and people are dying there of "ordinary" illnesses and accidents because they avoid hospitals and even if they go there it lacks treatments - horrendous
Well some people will die at home from other causes but in regards to the Wuhan crematorium worker she did say 8 confirmed infected dead and 48 unconfirmed (I presume suspected) dead from a total of 120 dead in a single day at her facility. Only the confirmed infected dead count towards the official figures and there are 49 crematoriums in Wuhan.
@Kiwihouse2005 B. if that were true, there would be corpses left out in the street at the crematariums or near the home. Remember a significant number of people do not have a car in the household as one reason, another is the expectation that it is simply futile to take it to the crematorium.
@@alinazang6651 Not at street yet, just hospital and crematorium. I guess it is..... good? At least it delay wide spread panic.
@@alinazang6651 There are a handful of videos circulating of bodies being left in the street by families already
Good morning Doctor. Thank you for your efforts.
And Happy Valentines Day early. You are a lovely man
i like how everyone is like "TEN things about the NEW coronavirus that WILL SCARE YOU!!", and then theres this guy just randomly naming videos "good morning", "thursday", and such
Naming the Videos by dates is Genius. It should say -O21320-COVID-19
From the beginning he has been educational rather than sensationlizim
It helps youtube not censor him.
The doctors intent is to inform, not spread fear
On one side he knows to keep calm an on the other he knows to avoid being taken down
If we don’t have enough resources for the severely ill then the mortality rate is going to be considerably more then
The given death rate reflects those diagnosed and treated as per the guidelines set by Chinese authorities and sadly we don’t know when the fatalities will start to even out. Even with today’s update about 1000 people recovered and about 200 died which is still at an alarming 20% mortality of end result cases.
the good Dr. has said that alread re: Cambodia and other very poor neighbors of China.
This virus is the least of your worries,you need psychiatric help
@ you are blaming immigrants when in fact immigrants are a net benefit to the economy and to the tax rolls. I don't care about your wrong economics, but your xenophobia is obvious and disgusting.
@ I think you are on the wrong channel.This is for people interested in evidence based data and what we can learn from it.If you are looking to have a racist rant with a good helping of wooley thinking hysteria I.m sure there are plenty of sites that would suit you better
Thank you very much for your work and all these informations.
Thank you. Sir.
Ill be worried if John stops uploading videos.
on this topic, or completely? If this virus runs it's course and we come out the othere side, I'll be relieved if he is able to stop discussing this and continues with his normal videos
One day soon YT will go down. Shortly after, your ISP will go down. Have a shortwave radio handy.
@Porsche Girl are you saying A) he doesn't know what he is talking about, B) he has a Ph.D. but no MD or C) we must stop watching his videos because he has a Ph.D. but no MD?
@Porsche Girl
And what is your point, exactly?
@Porsche Girl are you deranged? He's a nursing doctor, therefore he is a doctor. Medical doctors are a subset of doctors
We really appreciate these videos. Thank you so much. Take care Dr. Campbell.
Thank you for your time and effort Doctor. Cheers.
Thanks for all you are doing Dr Campbell.. It’s much appreciated this end.. ✌🏻
You are a treasure! Thank you so much for the level-headed guidance. The creme rises to the top!
Very glad I found your channel for updates on this topic. Thank you Dr.
spread in Singapore which always has a warm climate year-round, and it is about 29 deg / 85 deg F
Yeah it's worry me because we almost don't have more hot weather in my city
I follow a channel in Singapore. It is also very Humid there, as high as 95% sometimes. I cannot imagine, would be like swimming all the time
Apperantly you never study physics? There is huge difference between winter hot weather and summer hot weather.
I still think this is an ethnic specific bioweapon targeted at Han Chinese DNA. Wrecks havoc on the Chinese the hardest although anyone can get it and be a carrier.
Eric Wofford
Why do you think that?
Or are you joking?
Thank you for all the work you're doing. I very much appreciate your calm way of presenting relevant information.
Thank you for this information we all really appreciate you very much.
Thank you for your updates and thoughts on this sir
Dear Dr. John,
Thank you for your daily updates. It's been a comfort to a have an independent voice I can trust during this crisis.
I'm messaging you from Hanoi, Vietnam. Here schools have been closed for two weeks, but information is difficult to come by from the communist government here. There has been speculation that when the weather gets hotter the disease will become less transmissible and ultimately spread will reduce in the tropics, do you have any information about that?
Best wishes to you,
Sam
dont count on IT！Singapore is hot and the case is over 50 now！
Sometimes this can be the case, the warmer weather can cause a lull in spread but can come back again in the winter. However, what we know about this virus at present is so limited that we really don't know what it will do under different conditions. Sorry I cant be more helpful. I'm an epidemiologist so if you have any questions I post little updated on my channel and you can leave any questions on there and i can try to help with them.
Stay safe. I'm sending you and everyone impacted all of my love and best wishes.
I'm guessing yes because I remember him mentioning in the video that virus can be killed with ultraviolet rays
People at 2 hospitals in buffalo ny have corona virus, my family works at one of the hospitals treating them.
But cdc and ny government aren’t releasing any information on suspected or confirmed cases.
God have mercy on us!
Abt how many? (Va isn't too from there)
How did they confirm that?
The United States Government will suppress facts like the Chinese Government is.
Governments sit in high places. They must have their citizen/slaves working and performing to keep the matrix system rolling onward. If people panic, and more and more refuse to go out and work..... society stops. Nobody maintaining electricity systems or public water systems, sewage systems. No gas or electricity to cook. It could be very hellish. Additionally, government may lose complete control of the overlord positions.
What type of Coronavirus? Coronavirus has been around for awhile.
COVID-19 is what to worry about.
Thank you once again Dr. Campbell for this latest information.
Thank you (again) Dr. Campbell! You are making a big difference in preventing and dealing with this disease!
If you ever planned on quitting smoking, now would be a good time.
I ll for sure
Not only that but i got to thinking. I wonder if smog/air pollution in china played a role with so many getting hit hard by COVID-19.
@Dojocho I don't get that, I quit smoking a month ago (after 10 years) and the impression I got was that the improvement in lung function is quite stark, especially the further out you go.
Can we add something to a vape that kills the virus?
Very suspect and unnatural for smokers to be hit exponentially harder from a particular virus ....it’s like thanos deciding who should and shouldn’t be alive
John: Delay until Spring and Summer.
Australia: Winter is coming.
🤣😂🤣
We have John Campbell, who needs John Snow?
Mate, we don’t get winter down here very often ha ha!
Australia - Bring it on! We will purge with FIRE! You have tried burning, flooding and drying us out of existence, try it...
@@sirsciencealot8754 You don't live in Canberra, obviously. We get winter...and summer. Only too seasons here. Too bloody hot and too bloody cold.
I am so grateful for the videos
Greetings from Denmark
Great easy understandably information many thanks Dr john
Thank-you v much Dr have a great day.
Thank you again, doctor.
Thank you for being kind and showing empathy when you are explaining. This shows the humanity of the awful Wuhan NovalCoronavirus. Peace to All On Earth
Dagmar Sigrid Manon de Nijs - Blake I appreciate your kindness yo humans, be they from here or elsewhere. Bless you.
Singapore:
50 confirmed cases
15 recovered
35 still in hospital (8 intensive care)
0 deaths.
The percentage in intensive care (16%) is worrying. Singapore represents a significant case to monitor
If you have 16% of any significant population needing intensive care, you reach saturation of resources to the point that simply needing intensive care means you die. That is Wuhan at the moment.
It's 16% of cases but still a significant amount that will mean more fatality.
Looking at spread on the Diamond Princess Cruise ship there are now 214 cases testing positive that's around 6% of the 3600 so far.
Allan Gibson, I think that number is optimistic. In every hospital in the US, including large teaching medical centers, there may be 1-3 critical care beds open, every day. The other beds are already occupied. And while there are MICU, CCU, SICU, TICU, and step down units in the largest of hospitals, I think you can figure out how many critically ill patients will max out the US medical system.
@@allangibson8494 I hope some other countries can help Wuhan out with supplies and more medical staff.
@@bluewaters3100 The Chinese Government has been locking everyone else out to support a Chinese self sufficiency narrative with the CCP as the master. WHO only got permission to send a research team this week to China.
Thank you sir and God Bless to you and yours! Namaste!
Many many thanks to you good Doctor for your invaluable help informing the world about this!
Great content! Thank you, doctor.
Thank you for making things clairer for people like me, that otherwice would be lost in all thise academean languish. Thank you for the efford and time Thank you :-)
I’m a nurse and I’m going to confess something. My gut instinct is telling me that the situation is very bad and we could be facing a major pandemic. And I’m afraid. If it affects my area, I’ll be on the front lines. My closest friends who are also nurses and doctors will be on the front lines. I have sick people in my family who could be exposed. I’m being as rational as I can about this- I’m following the research as it comes out, and making some plans to protect myself and my loved ones in case the situation should (God forbid) deteriorate. In the mean time I’m going to just have to get on with life. But inside, I’m afraid.
A lot of us are afraid too. Stay strong :-)
Julia Lin Don’t fear it too much. Stay healthy, rest well, and have a positive outlook. I wish you the best.
Julia Lin I agree, please be careful and prepare is what you can do. Nurses, doctors and all people working in the medical field are great people that we that work in other fields are very lucky to have to take care of us. Good luck
My gut has told me for weeks that this is not right. We are prepared
@Nepp Nopp The current number for the Diamond Princess ship is 218 per the Captain. Another 44 taken off yesterday.
Thank you Dr Cambell
Thank you Dr. Campbell 🤝
I've been doing my best to follow this virus for a few weeks now and I have to say Dr. , your videos are most informative.
I really hope that everyone in this comments section is also watching Medcram's videos. He is a pulmonary specialist and makes excellent videos. His latest video, Coronavirus Update 16, is especially interesting. Basically, if we sleep more we can help our bodies fight off the virus. He explains it really well in layman's terms too, so it's easy to understand how.
(I posted this on an older video, but I thought I'd post it on a new video too so more people see it).
I mean it takes no rocket scientist to know that sleep boosts the immune system
Yes I saw that. Sleeping is easy, free and increases our bodies immune system so we can fight it off better. And sleeping between the hours of 10pm and 2am were especially important. (think I met that as I just woke at 2:33 am.)
👍
@@recoveringsoul755 I work 3rd shift haha
I love his channel as well!!! No fear mongering, just medical facts!
I am so glad i have found this channel i live in Thailand and daily temps in the Northeast are around 36Degs lets hope these temps hold this virus at bay, I will still take precautions for myself and family. No hand gel available in any of the big stores tesco macro etc, but masks have reappeared in 7-11 .There is little factual information out there, that is why i appreciate the wisdom contained in these videos , Many thanks Dr Campbell your work and dedication is much appreciated.
It doesn't matter if it's hot or cold. This virus is unreal.
You area the best bro! Thank you for all the help.
Thank you for all your excellent work! The Lord bless you!
It is important to remember that the history of pandemics is a history filled with official underestimations of the severity of the illness. We should expect no better today. There are a lot of reasons for this. The WHO is not now, nor has never, acted with public health as its top priority. They were politicized at inception and have remained so. Their top priority is keeping the global economy going. There are some legitimate reasons for this including and economic collapse could make things significantly worse and I am not here to debate what the WHO priorities should be. I am here to say that the WHO is categorically NOT what the WHO claims it is. If we keep this in mind and understand what the WHO really is as opposed to what they claim to be, we can make more educated decisions from national policy to individual protection. China has a similar motivation as the WHO and are intentionally keeping official numbers at a fraction of the real numbers. The best evidence support a minimum of 600k infected with 10k deaths if you look at the test kits provided vs what they medical professionals in china say they need, the provided kits are 10% of the need. There are other estimates from knowledgeable sources that estimate 1.5 million infected with 50k dead. The truth is probably in the middle somewhere but regardless, it is orders of magnitude worse than the CCP says.
The public health officials in the west are now slowly hinting this will not be contained. This means "This will not be contained". Prepare for a global pandemic that will infect hundreds of millions worldwide. We don't know what percentage it will kill yet, but it doesn't look good. We also don't know if spring and summer will cause the virus to retreat for a time, only to come back with another wave next fall. I believe wisdom dictates that we all prepare for something on the order of the 1918 Spanish flu and pray to God that nothing close to that bad becomes a reality.
Moose Your brief polemic is better information than the good doctor’s downplaying of the death rate IMHO.
I was thinking yesterday that everyone who is high enough up to have the real data probably knows that this can't be stopped and it's a matter of when, not if. If you knew that, what would you do? If you say it publicly, you'll have a run on food (which we're apparently short on due to bad weather in North America last year and locusts in some parts of the world and bush fires in Australia) and possibly riots and other break down of social order. If people become nutrient deficient due to a lack of food, then that will make the population more susceptible when it hits. You will also cause the economy to crash, which will panic even more people, and people who are out of work have time to riot.
They may just be trying to delay the inevitable, hoping that will soften the blow, or at least shorten the overall period of suffering. And wasn't that the conclusion from the Event 201 scenario? That in the face of an untreatable pandemic, you try to keep the economy, at least, normal for as long as possible? Kind of like the band playing while the Titanic is sinking.
Moose, very well put!
Every one let's pray daily to ask the Coronavirus to leave the planet forgive Chinese people.
Lol I'm a Vegan though.
Choose PEACE be blessed
History is also filled with false alarms. HIV and CJD were both predicted to be much worse.
I woke up early this morning to the news and have been waiting for this! Thanks for your dedication ♥️
Fabulous Dr Campbell you have you’re adverts back. I’ve let them play so you get the funds you so much deserve for keeping us so well informed. 👏🏻👏🏻
May I ask if anyone has seen Boris Johnson make a speech on this pandemic? Because I can’t find one. I think 🤔 because he is the leader of our country he should be saying something but it’s just his health minister. And really he’s not saying much.....
You will only hear propaganda her on in from this Government.
an outbreak plays into the anti-globalisation and also climate change sentiment, really they (including Donald Trump) won't make a noise because everything seems to play out on their side for no apparent reason. Border & identity centric affirmative action is trending now for myriad of logical reason.
True i just saw him talking about speed train hc2 something like that. Plus ive been to 9 pharmacy in 2 weeks time to find masks in london . ☮
Not on mine
@@lilasfreedom8216 B&Q or Wickes 😷🌻
Again, dr. Campbell. Thank you very much.
Your videos are absolutely fabulous! I am thinking about giving them to my students so they can learn from you how to do high-quality research into ongoing developments. Thank you so much!
much respect John !
Of all the channels I'm subscribed to discussing this apocalypse, Dr Campbell's is definitely in my top 6!
Which is your number one ?
#1
@@tonyhussey3610 BuyGoldNowDisasterChannel
JckSwan FUnny boy 👦
top 2
Singapores experience to date with COVID-19 seems to be a counter argument to the theory that Summer and Spring temperatures will mitigate R-naught or virility
Good morning Sir, thank you for your time, energy and expertise. Bravo.... Well Done as Always. Great Teacher you are....
Thank you, and God bless you for taking the time to do these videos!
It’s sad to think that in the darker ages, when disease, famine, plagues took place, there was no means to communicate and report meaningful information and now in 21st century the technology is there and the powers that be choose to not report or under-report. The very agencies we have in place to deal with this type of thing (CDC, WHO, etc.) is not really of any valuable help at all. They were the ones who were supposed to shine at a time like this and take control and give direction. This is all on a grand scale, the likes of which the world has not had to deal with forever, but there needs to be true leadership. Report not facts and figures. That is really nothing of importance. Refusing help is not going to solve anything. People have become so immersed in wealth and greed and trade that the humanitarian side is second thought. I know mass panic doesn’t need to ensue but give us truths and help us do what we all need to do to help each other get through this.
It's because they don't want to create widespread panic. We have a right to know how bad this truly is. They think it's better to keep the information hidden away. Sooner or later we'll find out when everyone around us catches the virus.
I saw first masks here in Finland. We have one known case that is said to be recovered.
I have to admit, I did not ask the reason for that mask though. We people here in Finland, we do not speak to each others.
Why you do not speak to each others ?
How on earth do you ever Procreate?
Recovering Soul Don’t need to speak to have sex ☺️
Chris Delaplante Because Finland is full of depressed suicidal people.
@@ItsOctoberr those are my favorite type of people :)
thanks for the information
Dr John , I listen to you only as I trust your evidence based concerns , calculations , and information as my stand alone go to . Thank you so much good Doctor
Thank you so much for taking time out of your day and explaining this to us.
Hi doctor, good science on this channel. I lived in China for 24 years. The difference you see today should be due to a criteria recount and some recalculation, as far as I read official news. Regards
No matter what happens, you have a way of keeping a peaceful manor that is comforting, thank you
Thank you, Dr. John. My only hope, I fear, is accidental prophylaxis from 40 years of chronic Cannabis use. (Sigh) Alas; how ironic would THAT be? 😎👍🏼 Had to share: humor is crucial in times of plague, as I'm sure you'd agree. Thank you for your wisdom, your calm, and your honesty. May angels surround you. 🙏🏼
Bless you Papillon
I HOPE SO LOL
You've earned my subscription. No fear mongering, no insane hyperbole, just facts. Very much appreciated
Your information explained in such a calm, factual way is reassuring to me. Thank you very much for your hard work. I have never smoked but have copd with a chronic cough for 25 years. Coughing for 25 years is difficult. I think of how I would be received if I was near an outbreak and what my risks would be. I am 70 retired RN and live in a small FL beach city. I am able to stay at home most of the time and not get exposed to much. I have subscribed to a grocery delivery plan if things get worse. I feel so very sad for the patients and medical staff in China. Glad to see the experts in Geneva getting their collective brilliant brains to work.
I haven't had a flu bug in 4 decades, when I was a kid.
I can't recall last time I even had a cold. I don't have random coughs like so many people do on any average day.
Headaches, running nose, etc just doesn't happen with me. My father was the same. I know I'm lucky. Some people in this world will have a hell of an immune system.
I got on a very intense health kick years ago. I'm sure this kind of a lifestyle should be positive. Too many man made chemicals in the body diverts one's immune system. The body is busy trying to identify and deal with man made chemicals instead of dealing with other intruders.
Can you please explain how a 34 year old doctor dies by a virus that has “flu like symptoms”...
Thanks!
a friend of mine died last year of a blood clot last year aged 30
mikael englund but not in China 🤨
@@tripplefives1402 I think he's referring to the Chinese Dr the govt. ignored for over a month, because the Chinese Govt. didn't want to spoil the spring festival.
I've heard it said in previous videos that the stronger the immune system, the stronger the immune response, leading to a more severe pneumonic stage. (Fits with the bio weapon angle - targeting a country's fighting force).
@mikael englund 6vweeks ago NO ONE KNEW HOW TO TREAT THIS or that incubation can be up to 24 days.
You really ought to be using a denominator representing the size of the infection pool 2-4 weeks ago, as that was the size of the infection pool when these fatalities were originally infected.
Newly infected patients will not be entering the phase of potentially fatal consequences for another 2-4 weeks from now (probably more like 3-6 weeks).
While infection pool size and mortality are both increasing at a geometric rate, they are both reflecting disease at potentially different stages of development.
Verne Arase You’re right but... He is not listening.
You have point there.
Thank you for the update Dr. John Campbell.
Keep up the good work and thank you for the education
John, we've calculated case fatality rates 2-4% (for healthy folks aka non-smoker/ diabetic/ cardiac it's ~1.8% vs unhealthy 3.6%). China wasn't reporting deaths like they're reporting "clinically diagnosed" cases now; if a pt died before test, it wasn't counted as a covid death. Also, reports of increasing home deaths & corpses being carried out are confirmed across China. Some videos on Twitter show coffin boxes lining the street. Folks are choosing to stay home even when sick bc they've seen what happens if they report their illness. They'd be taken to a crowded hospital & their friends/ family will be tested or taken by cops or military in boxes & forcibly quarantined or locked in homes. The long quarantine can cost them their jobs & even pets. Please note Univ of HK expert just stated in an interview that Covid is proving UNLIKE SARS & is already spreading in warm Singapore & Thailand
I concur with your point about racial differences in certain receptors. When I ran clinical trials for a general medicines division of a drug company (mainly cardiac & pulmonology treatments), the Japanese health authority required us to run separate trials in Japan for some drugs and indications bc they believed the racial differences were significant enough to impact drug efficacy.
Civil unrest and lack of public cooperation is the price of keeping the public in the dark. If you partner with the public, more likely they will partner with you.
OMG, the amount of disinformation going around is appalling. I’m in Shanghai , I’ve already gone back to work on Monday. People are encouraged no to go out if necessary, so the streets is a little more empty than usual. People are not dropping dead in the streets. We are not in a living hell as you described and I would be very appreciated if you could stop spreading unverified information like this. Because, you know, NOT HELPING.
@@yuanzhengsun9268 With respect you are in Shanghai, not one of the hardest hit areas - are you disputing the legitimacy of the plentiful videos of bodies being left in the streets to be collected or of vans collecting bodies from buildings with multiple other bodies already present in the van? Are you suggesting they have been staged or faked?
This morning i learned that "difficult" is a synonym for "catastrophic."
Virus seems to do fine in Singapore and Thailand, they have 27 - 30 degrees C there.
plenty of airconditioned offices and apartment buildings.
Oh no...
Mike X what? They have lots of infected people there!!
strong sunlight kills the virus.. but strong sunlight doesnt penetrate concrete and steel
@Mike X Where you been? Thailand had 25 confirmed cases on Feb 7th, 32 cases on the 9th, and 33 cases on Feb 11th.
I check for your videos after waking every morning. Thank you for maintaining scientific rigour.
You Doc, are an unbiased voice of Sanity during this crazy thing, and I have been watching all of your videos you have made about the virus. I am hoping we get through this ok.
Don't panic, but prep. Eat a whole food plant based diet, get enough sleep, exercise and reduce stress. Take care of yourself and each other. ♥️
And drop smoking!
Keep your body and immunity in the best condition :) lots of fruit, vegetables, nuts, seeds, legumes, seaweed and whole grains. Take vitamin b12 (cyanocobalamin) and vitamin D3 supplements.
Look for D3 that comes from lichen (a fungi-algae symbiosis), that's the best source.
@@areaofsight4868 yup!
Humans need meat protiens to stay strong
A beggy diat will not help with that.
Ephesians 6:18
18 In the same way, prayer is essential in this ongoing warfare. Pray hard and long. Pray for your brothers and sisters. Keep your eyes open. Keep each other's spirits up so that no one falls behind or drops out
Yes god is looking after us except for the sick and dying..300000000000 God just make sure you pick the correct one.
Wot?
@@lordsysop Wot
May our scientific knowledge save us from this plague. Hail Satan.
@Umbrella Corp People praying for me saved my life. That doesn't mean we can't also use medicine.
Wed 13th Feb...
Ah, I guess desperate times cause for desperate measures when it comes to evading youtube's algorithmically driven censorship and obfuscation regime
;)
All social media has ramped up the censoring.
I'm glad idiots can't profiteer with click bait and false information.
@Han Lockhart don't worry, there's still plenty of fake news to panic over on youtube.
@Han Lockhart Their still dropshipping from China, I would NOT order anything from Amazon, Many Amazon seller's buy wholesale from China and have it stored in their garage or warehouse also. One type of wholesale is called Private Label, they buy an item for cheap, slap their name on it and put it on Amazon as their own product, completely legal and is how Amazon makes so much money. I know for fact Amazon seller's do, maybe shopify too. Please if you can don't buy from there, theres many other places online.
For people not aware how Amazon really works, just look into "how to sell on Amazon or how to private label, how to find trusted source in China for wholesale"..
Take care of you!!!!!! Your life is valuable!!! Thanks for helping us out!
Dr John, your a good man. In a world focused on money you are priceless.
I love the way you end these videos. No goodbyes or anything, just abruptly turn around to the side and it's back to work on the computer. End of video.
Dr Campbell, can you actually calculate CFR using the 70k-ish number? The reason I ask this is, those who haven't expired nor recovered have the potential of either expiring or recovering still. We don't know what that 70k of confirmed people will actually do. Yet we're saying because they are still currently living, we're going to use that to model against. That doesn't seem right.
Using recovered vs expired would seem to be a better bit of math at this point, would it not? Which is roughly 18-20% as of Feb 12th 2020.
Heath T Dear Sir, what you fail to understand is that the good doctor has been doing this repeatedly on his channel, and has wholly failed to explain himself. Your question and your reasoning are, however, faultless.There would be a certain percentage of folk still recovering, having narrowly escaped the jaws of death. That would bring the death rate down to around 15%. The point the GP beautifully omits to mention, is that a UK health system overwhelmed with 20% of severe and critical cases would be in the same dilemma as China, and his 1% death rate would be exposed for what it is: wishful thinking.
@@edithflood631 it's not just him doing it though. I'm seeing it elsewhere as well. It makes absolutely no sense to me. At least I'm not alone in my thinking.
I'd love a simple explanation though.
@@edithflood631 He explained that two weeks ago. Using deaths over recovered is even less reliable than deaths over infections since recovery generally has a much longer lag than a death. This is demonstrable that for a considerable period of time that deaths vastly outweighed recoveries, which if you took the numbers just over a week ago would show the fatality:recovery ratio to be 50:1, possibly even higher.
@@SamuelHill94 I understand what you're saying. However, I disagree with the logic behind it. You don't just change the math because you're lacking data. You give the facts as they are, whether you like them or not. Then as more data comes in, your equation remains the same but the result begins to normalize. Finally, once you have enough data sets and enough time passes, you get an actual ratio without your equation ever changing.
If in 2032 there's a CoVID32 and 100 confirmed cases in the first 6 month. Then all 100 die from it. It has a 100% CFR. End of story. That's reality. Then 6 months later, we know how to treat CoVID32. After 10,000 cases, with those 100 being the only to die from it, the CFR is 1%. That's the same reality and the same math.
I'm not a PhD or MD but I like to believe I'm intelligent enough to apply logic and humble enough to ask for help when I'm at a loss. I asked for help but the logic is flawed. I'll stand behind the Recovered:Expired math yielding ~19% CFR, until someone can logically explain why we're changing variables.
@@xmarine73 if yoi wanted to use the CFR as a predictor of the deadly outcome for someone who got the infection i.e. how likely they are to die, it has to be dead/total number of infected
When calculating the death rate or R0, shouldn't the time delay be considered? Using for example numbers from three days ago.
Thank you Doctor. 💕
Yeah, it is actually pretty complicated to get the correct Case Fatality Rate while the epidemic is still running. See medicalsciences.stackexchange.com/questions/20970/is-the-mortality-rate-of-2019-ncov-41 for a pretty good discussion about it.
@Mike Moloch I know and the time delay is relevant for both. I would guess about three days for R0 and much longer for the death rate.
@@dolltron6965 Thank you for the link. I'll go with 3 days since it was the median in that study with incubation as long as 24 days.
I followed the links provided above. In a nutshell there are two answers. (1) The Kool Aid answer of 1% or 2% where you divide deaths by total cases, and (2) the Scary answer of 30% +, where you divide deaths by recovered patients, which is also wrong because of ongoing unresolved patients being excluded. If serious/critical cases are between 18% to 25% then deaths cannot exceed this percentage. In an epidemic overwhelming hospitals, pressurized oxygen therapy is unavailable and death rate skyrockets. Dr Campbell ignores this. I estimate a death rate of 12% to 15% as the juncture of the trajectories of the above two faulty methods.
@@OshZosh 15%... What a nightmare.
Thank you for the sensible information. 👍💖
Your daily summaries are much appreciated.
Me: imma have a great Valentine’s Day
Coronavirus: *lol yeah I’ll be your valentines*
OMG, happy I did'nt have anything in my mouth when I read that 🤣
@@Minunmaani you are welcome 😜
Valentines is pagan
"Now, um, I hesitate to put this next one in, but..." You just caught some people's attention. *puts on foil hat* 😂 But seriously, thanks for the update, sir.
Yes I got the message
All ready wearing foil hat
@@svrestless3425 Forget the hat, make a tin foil gas mask, quick. You will make a fortune!
Yes, we must protect our flat earth from those silly Martians. 😂
@@cassiesmith387 Don't worry about Martians. The lizard folk eat all the Martians.
Haha Ah yes, I completely forgot about the lizard folk.
Great discussion and I follow all your videos. I want to weigh in on discussions focused on fatality rate.
I think the focus needs to consider the problem of high morbidity - 15% are serious cases requiring medical intervention such as admission to ICU and oxygen. Clearly this has resulted in health care facilities being overwhelmed, unable to care for everyone.
If health care systems are overwhelmed, the fatality rate is expected to be higher for serious cases but how much higher? Once medical establishment is overwhelmed, how will this affect medical care for conditions not related to Covid19 (indirect fatalities)?
Based on what we know, as spotty as it is currently, there is consensus that this is highly infectious/transmissible with characteristics that work against containment efforts. This suggests that global pandemic is probable despite what seems a small caseload outside China - but this may be due to long incubation, most mild to no symptoms (but still infectious) and the time required to establish a community self sustaining propagation. Once established, expect things to progress like in China where they are overwhelmed.
It is the ability of Covid19 to defeat containment efforts and once established, overwhelm medical care institutions that are primary concerns of mine for these reasons:
1) Covid19 is highly transmissible in ways that can defeat containment efforts and may result in extreme strategies, including martial law - we are heading that direction.
2) Collapse of medical care availability will adversely affect fatality rates for serious cases
3) Collapse of medical systems will adversely affect fatality rates for other conditions
4) Draconian policies to contain outbreak with faltering medical systems risks civil disorder on a scale not seen in modern times.
For planning purposes, the priorities should be getting good data to understand what to expect so we can prepare as best we can. When we know so little and the public gets few answers and the longer that continues, the harder maintain/regain public trust and cooperation.
Fear of the unknown is an enemy we should be tackling now and the new numbers are a step in the right direction. Give the public the real deal as much as feasible because not to do so means we pay more dearly in the weeks ahead.
This is a very thoughtful comment! What seems to me is that the spread of the virus in countries of the Western hemisphere could be slower than in China due to better living standards (hygiene, population density etc). Maybe still now slow enough to allow for healthcare to take good care of patients with complications. But the potential spread in poor countries is very concerning
Thank you Sofia.
Yes, that was my thoughts too, but Hong Kong and Singapore are both showing sustained outbreak now. Singapore is wealthy advanced disciplined population with strict no nonsense government, but they have 8 new cases - total is 58. Hong Kong comes in second with 3 new cases for a total 53 confirmed. Then there is the cruise ship with over 200 cases and it will go higher as they test all 3,700.
What the three have in common is very high density population confined to a small area which is classic - this is where a pandemic is expected to spread in early stages from initial epicentre. There are half a dozen countries that are sustaining new cases right behind Singapore and Hong Kong. Declaration of pandemic in just a matter of days now.
You have my prayers, stay safe, stay well, and please prepare yourself and loved ones for what is to come.
A different strategy to the one you suggest is being unrolled in Western democracies. That is, to reassure the population, and downplay the numbers by using statistical methodologies. Dividing the total deaths by total case count to attain a low death rate is the big gun in this approach.
@@jamesmastertutor1556 ok help me understand better, Singapore has new cases but it doesn't appear overwhelming? As in, the growth is not exponential?
Hi Sofia. Singapore has 11 new cases not 8. The number of new cases is rising where two weeks ago 1 or 2 cases, then 2 to 3, than 4, then 8. Now, we have 11 in one day. The exponential rise in cases will become more apparent when the numbers get larger which is the transition from establishment of self sustaining propagation to break out when containment efforts largely fail.
Note that Singapore and Hong Kong have by far the highest density of population per square kilometre then any other state with an appreciable population - The cruise ship is 3,700 people in a ship that is 1/40 of a square kilometre making it more densely populated than any nation state by far and the population and densities are:
Cruise ship: 3,700 population, density/sqr.km. 150,000: cases 223
Singapore: 5,850,000 population, density/sqr.km. 8,360: cases 58
Hong Kong: 7,500,000 population, density/sqr.km. 7,140: cases 53
The population of Singapore, Hong Kong and cruise ship are together just under 14 million yet these 3 account for 334 out of the 590 cases outside Mainland China. Epidemiologists would not be surprised as this is consistent with geographic spread of a novel outbreak.
I'm so thankful to the good Doctor for these non-sensational, informative videos. The information has helped me prepare for whatever may come without panic, but with forethought. I've got basic supplies in for the family in case we need to be quarantined. My feeling is it probably won't reach our area in any large numbers - I don't live in a huge metropolis or anything - but it's a good feeling to be prepared just in case. The food I've stored is stuff we eat anyway, so if/when nothing happens, it will all be eaten eventually, no waste. =) So thank you, Dr., for the peace of mind.
Thank you for your well thought out and put together information sir!. A breath of fresh air among mainstream media telling us "there is nothing to see here" and independent media yelling " it's the end of the world the sky is falling"! I just want as many facts as I can find so I can think through the rest myself. I'm tired of being mis-informed or flat out lied to about this situation and many more. Thank you again for just giving us the best information you can find without bias or leading us one way or the other.
Oh they know! The guy running the crematorium knows!
I was waiting you all day Dr Campbell. Video was posted just 3 minutes ago. Sorry im late.
If you were a Chinese citizen, would you trust them to diagnose and treat you accordingly in light of what we have witnessed in video and read in news reports?
Nope
what is your alternative if you're in China?
China has zero credibility. Once you start adjusting data to try to fit a narrative it makes that data almost useless. The cruise ship suffers because China was not honest about its numbers and were hesitant to share any real data. I hope the ccp crumbles and the Chinese people get their country back.
Absolutely not, but progress is being made for the recovered so it's something at least. gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Thanks for the update I do appreciate your insights.
Thank you, Dr John
in a recent interview, a scientist from oxford said, his colleagues say that it is a guess, that in the summer months the virus is not able to spread as well, but they simply don’t know.
Unless it mutates
Singapore & Vietnam are the places to watch for that theory. Current temps are hot and humid, (this week: low 80's Vietnam -- upper 80's Singapore). They're reporting infections...Now, whether it will spread is the question.
We need to try to not be in ac much
Why are the stories so conflicting!?! The Who sais it’s going down , but others say it went up dramatically?
Deaths don’t count as tested positive or seriously ill. Evidently.
(Edit: I’m being sarcastic)
The WHO were saying it was going down until Hubei authorities changed the method by which cases were being confirmed (to include cases diagnosed clinically and via CT scan) - because of this there was a sudden jump in numbers yesterday
China has given out a new definition of infected/deaths/suspected that's why, as the disease progresses authorities probably have to do it again as our understanding improves.
Money can work magic
You still believe in WHO sayings? They are CCP puppets 😖
There are ppl there taking fever reducing meds so they can leave.with this happening its going to be rough.and i read sone where incubation could be around 24 days look well and still be infected.your thoughts
Heavenly Spirit Tarot _ you are completely correct.
I think part of why I love this channel so much is that if I were still taking high school biology/anatomy, this would be the type of channel I would get info from. The educational experience is so apparent and I love it
Thank you Dr. Campbell for taking time out of your day to keep us informed with facts and sources.