David Capital Partner's Adam Patinkin thesis on asset light house builder, Vistry Group $VTY.L
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 15 พ.ค. 2024
- Adam Patinkin, CFA, Managing Partner at David Capital Partners, LLC, joins the podcast to discuss his thesis on Vistry Group PLC (LSE: VTY), UK’s leading provider of affordable mixed tenure homes.
For more information about David Capital Partners, please visit: davidpartners.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense
[1:28] David Capital's background and investing philosophy
[7:07] Overview and history of Vistry Group $VTY.L + David Capital's background with $VTY.L and why Vistry is interesting to Adam
[18:39] Partnerships business - what is it?
[27:04] What is unique about Countryside's business model (Vistry's competitive moat)
[36:25] Why Adam thinks that Vistry's future growth is going to unlock, despite trading flatish for last 15 or so years
[43:10] What "Mixed Tenure Project" means
[48:02] Partner pushback?
[52:40] NPC comparison
[56:17] What breaks the Vistry thesis?
[1:00:55] UK housing cycle - where are we at
[1:06:02] Vistry valuation + growth prospects
[1:16:25] What is the sell-side missing
[1:22:38] CEO comp package and newly appointed board directors
[1:25:22] Vistry exposure amongst UK funds
Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense
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I met Adam a decade ago in Omaha. We were long fiat chrysler and I told him it was cheap, especially relative to Tesla. He said Tesla was actually really cheap, I laughed out loud.... Adam was right. Great guy and investor!
Absolutely nobody does their homework better than Adam Patinkin!
I enjoyed listening to this one. Will check Vistry out
Great thesis
Vsitry says they're build rate led and not sale rate led becuase it's their partners who's pushing the supply to the market. Demand for affordable housing is absurd but in the end those LAs, RPs, HAs limits the supply, if the supply constraint prolongs, not sure if Vistry can meet their delivery target. Maybe they can increase their market share with new partners.
Another risk I'm assessing is that affordable housing is a loss-making business without government supports, is this sustainable in long term?
Idea: interview Of hedge fund managers Greg Alexander and Norbert Lou who crush the market and are under the radar. If you succeed you will have millions on views as it is impossible to find them on YT. They both own under the radar small caps. Cliff Sosin was an interesting interview.
27:35 Andrew, didja ever answer to your question of why NVR is the only public US builder who options its lot inventory? 🤔❓
Correction: DFH also doesn't land bank.
Adam, what percent of your AUM is in this position?
Have not analyzed but looks fairly valued. Look at the rise Of Builders FirstSource which is still cheaper. Greg Alexander have sold its shares after the run.
What run? How do you know he sold? The shares were converted to Vistry.
How does Vistry look fairly valued at this point? It will take 5 years for the thesis to play out. You will have to wait a bit to see if its fairly valued or not.
Can someone explain to me how they free up capital for buy back? Are they selling their land?
Yes selling land bank over time.