If you followed Gundlach long enough you could notice that he almost exclusively interviews with Scott, who lets him speak almost uninterrupted. And it seems like they have a mutual respect for each other.
Rahul Chahal WH is essentially helpless to stop it at this point. We’re already well committed to this trajectory. A Warren presidency would only accelerate the inevitable, Trump re-election would forestall it. Just my humble opinion of course
Jack McAndrews Politicians do what’s best for them not the country. Trump will most likely get re-elected. Let’s see what he does in his 8 years. So far tax cut for big corporations & $1 Trillion debt each year he has been in office. Not sure I’ll give him 8 years. And other politicians are likely worse
Lock her up. Lock her up. Lock her up. Lock her up. Lock her up. Lock her up. Lock her up. Lock her up. Lock her up. Lock her up. Lock her up. Lock her up. Lock her up.....
The Market has been pretty bad until today it decided to surge. Everybody was Practically Crying then. It kept dipping. That's what you get when you feel you can navigate the process on your own. Big thank to Mrs Clara Greens. I'm not bothered with how bad the Market is because my assests are insured due to her advice on the market and am earning even with the market going down..
You're right! I have lost a lot trading all by myself without a guide. It's been an uneasy ride for me. Who is your mentor please. I actually don't mind paying.
19:35 Play defense relative to interest rate risk (higher longer term) We’ve seen the low in the 10 yr for the year Credit risk: right now is very dangerous. The time to exit the corporate bond market is presently
Obviously this guy is rich and probably knows what he is doing. My question is why is he giving US free info? I have seen him more in the last month then the last decade. I never see Bill Belicheck giving up his game plan.
Chuck Farley I certainly don’t disagree, but which government? Since when does the US government care about its citizens ( those outside the 1%) . Or are they just letting us know we will be bailing out the rich.....again.
How refreshing to hear some reality based "truth telling"! Thank you, Mr. Gundlach.... And, I surely do hope you are right about seeing some modest rate hikes. Not everyone wants to rely solely on "the markets" for their financial stability.
For the love of God I hope people take heed to what he is saying. He is taking a more measured approach than Peter Schiff but basically this is gonna be horrific and people are going to get slaughtered in this next recession that will become a depression.
Honestly, I'm feeling a bit uncomfortable with a lot of current events; mortgage derivatives, unprecedented student loan debt, credit card debt, auto loan debt, federal deficit and QE4. Our dollar is practically worthless. Bank bail-ins scare the living daylights out of me. Gold and silver are good safety nets but a resurgence of the Gold Reserve Act of 1934 rules would render even the most financially prepared individuals helpless.
This man just this year started talking about the next recession because of debt (he is the debt king and he is on point, Jeffrey Gundlach). Ray dalio is the second billionaire who is on point with the cycle, and Warren Buffet also (but the first 2 are economists and last big billionaire is a business, financial analytics guy and less on the economics.) Great to see everyone agreeing with what will happen, now the masses must start to believe so it actually happens.
Probably because he's getting a position the charts look promising for the first and second quarter of next year he has been very optimistic on gold in the past
Fed is aiming to monetize debt in a desperate attempt to handle the massive debt bubble they created. This end game will fail and will lead to a significant realignment of asset valuations.
Very helpful to get the things together in the current market environment, especially the part when he explains why the USD is still so strong despite an easing FED policy (e.g. negative bond yields in Europe that makes tutes over there fleeing into US bond market )
Gundlach is brilliant but remember he made a huge mistake one year ago. At that time he said we were in a “bear market” and time has proven that we were not.
@Chuck Farley Even if they did a 180 is short term. Are you saying because they went from raising rates to lowering them there is nothing to worry about?
@Chuck Farley You think Trump and Mnuchin would let a recession happen as the elections are coming up? Come on. Atleast in 2008 Bush was leaving office and a new president was coming in. The powers that be will not allow a recession in 2020. Maybe after or towards Trump's 2nd term. More tax cuts coming up and Fed pumping. Just watch
Gundlach makes a great point about how regional leadership changes over time. Here's a simple method to adapt. Use some major benchmark ETFs like SPY, EFA, EEM. Once a year, test the trailing 2 year return, and switch to whichever is strongest. Try a back-test if you don't believe me. This would have kept you in SPY from late 90s but switched to EEM in 2003. Stayed in EEM until 2012 when it switches to SPY, and stays in SPY for entire bull market. Doesn't get better than this... extremely simple technical method with low turnover.
I was planning on creating a U.S. Dollar Safe Haven however I have been told that it won't be wise to hold U.S. Dollars during the upcoming Recession. Jeffrey Gundlach just confirmed it, that the U.S. Dollars will be dumped. So my question is, is there an alternative to the U.S. Dollar? The Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen have also been good safe havens, however, I'm worried about the high government debt in Japan 🇯🇵. Will the high government debt weaken the properties of the Yen being a safe haven? I'm comfortable with the Swiss Franc being a Safe Haven, I will add gold and bitcoin to my portfolio (Swiss Franc, Gold and Bitcoin). I need clarity on the Japanese Yen so that I may make a decision whether to add the Yen to my portfolio.
1- The establishment will inflate the economy as they did in the 1970s but this time it is global inflation with nowhere to escape. Unlike what happened in the 70s when the U.S. corporations outsourced jobs and production to China and other parts of the world, this time there is nothing to outsource because of automation. And therefore there will be no escape from inflation and possibly hyperinflation. 2- The stock market will initially rise as response to the Fed's easing policy but it will decline when inflation starts to pickup and eat into earnings. 3- The debt will rise exponentially over time and the dollar will be wiped out over the next 30 years. 4- The U.S. will enter a period of economic stagnation for the next 30 years and it will get worse before it gets better. 5- The Fed will buy enough corporate debt to get by.
2. At what point does inflation eat into earnings you think? 4%? I think no matter what inflation does equities and multiples will expand. Another question is why do you think the Fed won't be able to keep inflation in check. The rest of your points are too bearish and far-fetched. The Fed will bail us out, even though it won't be pretty. As soon at people see equities fall people will scramble for a patch before anything crazy happens, we are to paranoid after 08.
@@pricetagcitrus Inflation has been eating into earnings since the 1970s, thanks to productivity, demand due to rising world population, globalization, and consumer and national debts, inflation was not felt. Moving forward, all these variables are trending downwards so inflation will catch up. In the 70s, 40% of U.S. population was in the low income bracket but now 60% falls under this category. In the 60s, average house price was equal to one year of average income. In 2019, average house price is 4.5 years of average income. Earnings growth would have been negative year over year since 2007, had not been for the buybacks by most of the S&P 500.
@@pcpolice2314 From where will the people replaced by automation get their purchasing power? Imagine 10 million truck and taxi drivers will be replaced by self-driving cars and trucks by 2030, how will they get any purchasing power? Inflation = decline in purchasing power (either decline of the value money or the inability of getting money)
@@kolabola7200 Have enjoyed reading your posts. As for your response to PCPolice (lol), I'm sure you realize that your response doesn't apply to everyone. Most people will end up with reduced/zero spending power, but others will have LOTS of it. What happens as a result will be what was always wanted and intended, and has actually been openly talked about by some pretty notable people (if the average person bothered to pay attention).
I'm wondering if leverage ratios are less relevant because rates are historically low. Can hold more debt if the cost is lower. Shouldn't it be interest expense coverage ratios?
great of CNBC to host Jeffrey Gundlach, ie someone who tells the truth. But their lower captions deliberately misquote him. One quotes him saying "the phase 1 trade deal came out of the blue" ( which seems positive) whereas the real context is, it is a false, nothing deal that came ( was invented) out of the blue to appease expectation ( ie in the pretense ) of a real proper deal, and it is basically worthless, ie a con.
Wow having Gundlach acknowledge basic income as a way to stimulate inflation shows he gets it.. Fed is way too tight and has to expand its bal sheet to fuel growth.. Bailing out banksters does not help the consumer. Exponential growth in tech is pouring gas on deflation. A basic income in an amount that helps the 99% but still encourages gainful activity is the way to go.
Labor market is good? 44% of Americans earn less than $18,000. Sounds really good for employers, until consumption drops into the basement. Good luck with that.
Unemployment claims are low because of the sharing/gig economy. People would rather drive for Uber and/or Lyft 40+ hours a week in this illusion that they are doing well. That is preventing people from claiming unemployment
Comparing the job growth of the LAST 3 years of Obama to that of the FIRST 3 years of Trump is totally nonsensical. It's like comparison of oranges and apples! What happened to the first 5 years of Obama? Jeffrey Gundlach is a buffoon talking crazy.
Anyone still thinking of voting Labour ask yourself one question. In the 40 years Corbyn has been an MP why has no Labour Leader offered him a position on cabinet or shadow cabinet😲
Im going to take it one step further and say the whole thing is going to meltdown. There wont be a new policy. Everyone will be left to themselves. And new ecoonomies, financial systems and nations will form good or bad.
So putting together what Zoltan Pozsar has been saying about dollar liquidity and Gundlacks assessment on dollar correlation with offshore purchases of unhedged US corporate bonds... Can the potential domino effects be ... dollar liquidity issues causes a spike in US treasury yields, forcing the Fed to engage in full blown QE at the long end, causes dollar to drop like a rock, which in turn causes a selling of in corporate bonds.... and stock market slide thru it all?
So disappointed in Gundlach. Guy has no idea what's going on. Cuts recession forecast to 35%. Remember people he has philosophy background, now he's just going with middle ground neutral argument. May be he's lying to the media, may be to his investors, may be to himself. Resultant is same. He's in uncharted waters. To some degree we all are. This market may never ever crash. In fiat systems, central banks can purchase unlimited assets as need be. Learn MMT. That's our future.
Focus is on the when and how but not the why. The why is the most important question. The fact is that the disaster waiting to happen has been there long before 2008. First of all, investment analysis is extremely complex. Even many investment advisors truly only understand the results and not the mechanisms of financial instruments. In such situations, street sense or basic laws will help even the mere layman to not fall a fool. 1 - There is NO LOSS without GAIN. This means that for every loss in a recession or otherwise, there has to be an equal gain in some form or another somewhere else. 2 - It is the change in value and not the absolute value itself that creates happiness or misery. For example, A house whether priced at USD 100,000 or USD 10,000,000 makes no difference. However, the same pleasure is felt for a 10% gain and the same desperation for a 50% loss. What this means to the average person or family is their life is no different whether the total market capital or GDP is 1 billion or 1 trillion or 1 billion trillion. Whatever, the size, the same pain or pleasure comes from the same relative change. With those rules in mind, the why. It is simply that output is much much higher than consumption. Why is output higher than consumption? Basic rule is that the same work should be required to consume as to produce. How much is it higher. Well, think that only 20% of GDP roughly translated to 20% work is required for every person in the developed world to live a happy and healthy life. Automation, energy valued well below its true cost, non-government individuals or companies benefiting from differences in absolute values of different countries.These are the 3 basic causes. If it is so simple, why don't our presidents, chancellors or prime ministers fix the problem by getting together and reducing the output? Above lies the answer. Election is a competition and the maximum view is 5 years in most countries. Unfortunately, that is an extremely short-term view to fix this problem. Therefore, it is much easier to manipulate the consumption side made even easier thanks to our financial institutions and the great brains within them. Don't forget, happiness and therefore re-election comes from growth. No one cares for stable absolute values. The environment has an equally simple solution. To wet the taste buds, here it is. The law of economics is perfect except for one flaw. It has a short term view because we are and therefore our greed is short-sighted. To fix it.....simply add the future cost to all resources*. Extremely easy to do with the barrier only being our wonderful equally short-sighted politicians. If one great person or all together can get that done, no more talk about climate warming, saving fuel, flying less, driving less, child heroes or doomsday scientists. The wonderful law of economics or in other words greed alone will effortlessly drive to the solution in the fastest time. *Caveat - future cost charged must be equal to and directly used to offset the actual impact of use.
Jeffrey Gundlach...You weren't clear.Free money to get us out of Debt to Inflation. Can you expound or explain the Free Money to US out of Debt to Inflation.More details required to make any sense of it.
El Ac idk, im just curious is all, that’s why I ask the question because Jeff says if we go somewhere above or around 250k jobless claims we could use that as a possible indicator
@@josephdeyoung8754 Fair enough. I also misread your post. You asked about "jobless claims." But the response to your question and to its opposite jobs report, is to "ask about/look at the quality of the jobs produced and lost." Always helpful to look at what the reports are actually measuring and how. Can't remember exactly, but at least one report is a statistical survey. So the #s reported are basically guesses, not actual tallies of every person meeting the criteria. The other things to know are what it means to "be employed," and at what point someone is no longer counted (for any reason) among the "unemployed." As for the "low" unemployment rate vs. "low" inflation, again, go look at the mix and quality of jobs that has been produced over the last decade. People working few hours and/or making low wages (relative to the cost of living)... This is why you have the "low" inflation that people keep talking about (even though inflation isn't actually low). Hypothetical: 250k people working one hour for $5/hr isn't a sign of a great economy, nor likely to produce a huge bump in economy activity. Hence, the "low unemployment rate, low inflation" (false) narrative.
El Ac I think inflation is coming to the consumer. I’m seeing it at the grocery store 20-30% markups on items. Also the sneaky ones are the utilities. Many people don’t think about or question inflation appearing there but it does and it will and that’s where it’s felt.
@@josephdeyoung8754 Oh, inflation is definitely here. You are absolutely correct, and it's present if one looks at other metrics as well. But the narrative is that there isn't any. And I'm saying that a large part of why the people spouting that tripe can do it is because the quality of jobs being produced is so poor that many people who are working don't actually have any real money to spend. Truthfully, I believe that the true focus of such "inflation" talk is wages, and there, even with the little raises people are supposedly getting, there isn't any inflation (because the wages have been depressed for decades, and because so many people are failing to do math and negotiate accordingly).
I can listen to Gundlach for hours and hours and hours.
Last time he say 30y-yields break and suddenly totally collapse.. So listen but becarefull.. Perhaps take the other side
@@deathlarsen7502 that's how much I love finance
When this guy gets warmed up, he's one of the best
👍👍
Instablaster
American hero. Thanks for taking the torch. Volcker would be proud.
I'm surprised that CNBC had him on they are normally cheerleaders for a bull market.
If you followed Gundlach long enough you could notice that he almost exclusively interviews with Scott, who lets him speak almost uninterrupted.
And it seems like they have a mutual respect for each other.
Gundlach is unbelievable knowledgeable!! I could listen to him speak all day long
This is the type of guy who starts talking and even the most egotistical loudmouth realizes they need to just shut up and benefit from his knowledge
have you met my wife?
@@trollol_ You poor married guys
Shhhhh.... I'm listening
@@trollol_ the way to shut up your wife is to point out he's a billionaire
@@owenbenjaminshapiro6285 , or stick something in her filthy mouth
I love, love Gundlach. I could listen to him five days a week.
This man speaks the truth. Interviewer sounds like a corporate puppet.
Absolutely fantastic. Speaks the truth, hopefully someone at the Fed & White House are listening
Rahul Chahal WH is essentially helpless to stop it at this point. We’re already well committed to this trajectory. A Warren presidency would only accelerate the inevitable, Trump re-election would forestall it. Just my humble opinion of course
Jack McAndrews Politicians do what’s best for them not the country. Trump will most likely get re-elected. Let’s see what he does in his 8 years. So far tax cut for big corporations & $1 Trillion debt each year he has been in office. Not sure I’ll give him 8 years. And other politicians are likely worse
ferzy09 Sanders will need to have both Senate & House support him else he gets nothing done
The guys in the back is just buying and selling AGG
LMAO! Two buttons on the keyboard...buy and sell.
He's doing no work. He's management material!
Haha 😆
“Phase 0.1 trade deal...” Truth be told! 🤣
What a joke, right?
One of the very best Jeff Gundlach. Thank you for educating us with every interview, and for keeping it real.
Great guy. Great mind.
This guy's not only a genius, but the sexiest guy in finance. He and Eric Schatzker make a great pair!
What a genius! Every smart man.
Gundlach is a great professional explainer. I heard every word, kept my attention, and understood everything.
Appreciate his honesty. It seems a certain financial doom awaits humanity.
not really . money has to go somewhere, most likely to us China, as our market would bounce back quickly, you will see
Lock her up. Lock her up. Lock her up. Lock her up. Lock her up. Lock her up. Lock her up. Lock her up. Lock her up. Lock her up. Lock her up. Lock her up. Lock her up.....
Please bring this guest back!
The Market has been pretty bad until today it decided to surge. Everybody was Practically Crying then. It kept dipping. That's what you get when you feel you can navigate the process on your own. Big thank to Mrs Clara Greens. I'm not bothered with how bad the Market is because my assests are insured due to her advice on the market and am earning even with the market going down..
An opportunity for newbies to capitalize on, It's quite a shame people can't see this, trading is everything right now.
You're right! I have lost a lot trading all by myself without a guide. It's been an uneasy ride for me. Who is your mentor please. I actually don't mind paying.
Pls, how do I Get Mrs Clara?
.....
that's her hAndLe. get more info from her… .☝☝☝..
19:35 Play defense relative to interest rate risk (higher longer term)
We’ve seen the low in the 10 yr for the year
Credit risk: right now is very dangerous. The time to exit the corporate bond market is presently
Good interview and time to learn from Gundlach
Awesome Analysis fm Jeffrey.
Obviously this guy is rich and probably knows what he is doing. My question is why is he giving US free info? I have seen him more in the last month then the last decade. I never see Bill Belicheck giving up his game plan.
Chuck Farley I certainly don’t disagree, but which government? Since when does the US government care about its citizens ( those outside the 1%) . Or are they just letting us know we will be bailing out the rich.....again.
If people were thinking long term (not just in their financial lives) like Gundlach they would be a lot better off.
ENORMOUS respect to Mr Gundlach for hours knowledge and honesty
How refreshing to hear some reality based "truth telling"! Thank you, Mr. Gundlach.... And, I surely do hope you are right about seeing some modest rate hikes. Not everyone wants to rely solely on "the markets" for their financial stability.
My dawg Gundlach laying down the truth
Good interviewer. Thanks
For the love of God I hope people take heed to what he is saying. He is taking a more measured approach than Peter Schiff but basically this is gonna be horrific and people are going to get slaughtered in this next recession that will become a depression.
Honestly, I'm feeling a bit uncomfortable with a lot of current events; mortgage derivatives, unprecedented student loan debt, credit card debt, auto loan debt, federal deficit and QE4. Our dollar is practically worthless. Bank bail-ins scare the living daylights out of me. Gold and silver are good safety nets but a resurgence of the Gold Reserve Act of 1934 rules would render even the most financially prepared individuals helpless.
Chris Salley Japanification coming to a town near you.
This man is like a computer. He is a wealth of financial knowledge.
Outstanding interview of Jeffery Gundlach by Scott Wapner. Two professionals at their best. Great stuff
This man just this year started talking about the next recession because of debt (he is the debt king and he is on point, Jeffrey Gundlach). Ray dalio is the second billionaire who is on point with the cycle, and Warren Buffet also (but the first 2 are economists and last big billionaire is a business, financial analytics guy and less on the economics.) Great to see everyone agreeing with what will happen, now the masses must start to believe so it actually happens.
You can add Marks to the list
@@ryanmorikawa9898 is he a billionaire, any cool videos about him?
Bummer Gamer Look up “Howard Marks”. Lots of videos on him.
Smart dude, but no mention of sound money GOLD?
Probably because he's getting a position the charts look promising for the first and second quarter of next year he has been very optimistic on gold in the past
Listening to Gundlach always shows you the clear difference between smart money and dumb money
Classic... One of my favorite guys to follow 👏👏👏
Fed is aiming to monetize debt in a desperate attempt to handle the massive debt bubble they created. This end game will fail and will lead to a significant realignment of asset valuations.
where are yo placing your chips ?
"Fed funds rate doesn't allow for the market to clear", meaning, the collateral on the repo market doesn't really sell below 10%.
Gundlach is the best.
longest ive ever heard a guest talk without being interrupted
For a 45 min video on TH-cam it’s one of the longest I’ve ever stayed tuned to.
Imagine that. He's yang gang.
Thanks Jeffery G
Very helpful to get the things together in the current market environment, especially the part when he explains why the USD is still so strong despite an easing FED policy (e.g. negative bond yields in Europe that makes tutes over there fleeing into US bond market )
Amazing interview!!
Gundlach is brilliant but remember he made a huge mistake one year ago. At that time he said we were in a “bear market” and time has proven that we were not.
He also said the 30-year would be above 4% by the end of 2020 we'll see how that goes
@@stopasking9745 Jeff?
@@stopasking9745 it is hard to predict these things
@Chuck Farley Even if they did a 180 is short term. Are you saying because they went from raising rates to lowering them there is nothing to worry about?
@Chuck Farley You think Trump and Mnuchin would let a recession happen as the elections are coming up? Come on. Atleast in 2008 Bush was leaving office and a new president was coming in. The powers that be will not allow a recession in 2020. Maybe after or towards Trump's 2nd term. More tax cuts coming up and Fed pumping. Just watch
Jeff is a boss... he knows his game. Same view as Peter Shiff... this bubble will end nasty
Yes
Mark Hendriks they both copy Martin Armstrong
This is explains why Germany is allowing banks to buy bitcoin
Bernie is going to win, and crush Trump
?....
The book - The Fourth Turning (by Neil Howe)
16:06 that "mega recession" is commensurate to the size of the "everything bubble" we're in.
Amazing level of intelligence, depth and experience. Wow...
Inflation is higher than 2%
Watching this after Covid crysis playout. Genious person and he knows whats coming and he looks ready
Gundlach makes a great point about how regional leadership changes over time. Here's a simple method to adapt. Use some major benchmark ETFs like SPY, EFA, EEM. Once a year, test the trailing 2 year return, and switch to whichever is strongest. Try a back-test if you don't believe me. This would have kept you in SPY from late 90s but switched to EEM in 2003. Stayed in EEM until 2012 when it switches to SPY, and stays in SPY for entire bull market. Doesn't get better than this... extremely simple technical method with low turnover.
what do you think of peter shiff ? now
Peter Schiff says essentially the same thing in a different way. Recession is inevitable after such a long bull run.
Watching this after double-points post is incredible
Call it MMT its crazy
Call it a credit bubble, QE, permanent Repo, then it's Ok?
It's the Magical Money Tree!
Terrific conversation!
I was planning on creating a U.S. Dollar Safe Haven however I have been told that it won't be wise to hold U.S. Dollars during the upcoming Recession. Jeffrey Gundlach just confirmed it, that the U.S. Dollars will be dumped. So my question is, is there an alternative to the U.S. Dollar? The Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen have also been good safe havens, however, I'm worried about the high government debt in Japan 🇯🇵. Will the high government debt weaken the properties of the Yen being a safe haven? I'm comfortable with the Swiss Franc being a Safe Haven, I will add gold and bitcoin to my portfolio (Swiss Franc, Gold and Bitcoin). I need clarity on the Japanese Yen so that I may make a decision whether to add the Yen to my portfolio.
Fantastic interview, lot’s of his points are strikingly similar to Luke Gorman’s
And Ray Dalio !!
Print two TRILLION dollars out of THIN air to bail out the banks>>>but screw the guy on the street !!!
Pocohontas ? She died along time ago and I graduate from Jr. high. YOU ?
1- The establishment will inflate the economy as they did in the 1970s but this time it is global inflation with nowhere to escape. Unlike what happened in the 70s when the U.S. corporations outsourced jobs and production to China and other parts of the world, this time there is nothing to outsource because of automation. And therefore there will be no escape from inflation and possibly hyperinflation.
2- The stock market will initially rise as response to the Fed's easing policy but it will decline when inflation starts to pickup and eat into earnings.
3- The debt will rise exponentially over time and the dollar will be wiped out over the next 30 years.
4- The U.S. will enter a period of economic stagnation for the next 30 years and it will get worse before it gets better.
5- The Fed will buy enough corporate debt to get by.
2. At what point does inflation eat into earnings you think? 4%? I think no matter what inflation does equities and multiples will expand. Another question is why do you think the Fed won't be able to keep inflation in check. The rest of your points are too bearish and far-fetched. The Fed will bail us out, even though it won't be pretty. As soon at people see equities fall people will scramble for a patch before anything crazy happens, we are to paranoid after 08.
automation will reduce prices, why will it raise inflation?
@@pricetagcitrus Inflation has been eating into earnings since the 1970s, thanks to productivity, demand due to rising world population, globalization, and consumer and national debts, inflation was not felt. Moving forward, all these variables are trending downwards so inflation will catch up. In the 70s, 40% of U.S. population was in the low income bracket but now 60% falls under this category. In the 60s, average house price was equal to one year of average income. In 2019, average house price is 4.5 years of average income.
Earnings growth would have been negative year over year since 2007, had not been for the buybacks by most of the S&P 500.
@@pcpolice2314 From where will the people replaced by automation get their purchasing power? Imagine 10 million truck and taxi drivers will be replaced by self-driving cars and trucks by 2030, how will they get any purchasing power?
Inflation = decline in purchasing power (either decline of the value money or the inability of getting money)
@@kolabola7200 Have enjoyed reading your posts. As for your response to PCPolice (lol), I'm sure you realize that your response doesn't apply to everyone. Most people will end up with reduced/zero spending power, but others will have LOTS of it. What happens as a result will be what was always wanted and intended, and has actually been openly talked about by some pretty notable people (if the average person bothered to pay attention).
40:55 i see you!
I'm wondering if leverage ratios are less relevant because rates are historically low. Can hold more debt if the cost is lower. Shouldn't it be interest expense coverage ratios?
It's good to see that many are on board rearding the decision on rates by the Fed with backing from other board members.
We really need to rein in government spending. 1% cut across the board would do wonders.
great of CNBC to host Jeffrey Gundlach, ie someone who tells the truth. But their lower captions deliberately misquote him.
One quotes him saying "the phase 1 trade deal came out of the blue" ( which seems positive) whereas the real context is, it is a false, nothing deal that came ( was invented) out of the blue to appease expectation ( ie in the pretense ) of a real proper deal, and it is basically worthless, ie a con.
Wow having Gundlach acknowledge basic income as a way to stimulate inflation shows he gets it.. Fed is way too tight and has to expand its bal sheet to fuel growth.. Bailing out banksters does not help the consumer. Exponential growth in tech is pouring gas on deflation. A basic income in an amount that helps the 99% but still encourages gainful activity is the way to go.
Labor market is good? 44% of Americans earn less than $18,000. Sounds really good for employers, until consumption drops into the basement. Good luck with that.
Unemployment claims are low because of the sharing/gig economy. People would rather drive for Uber and/or Lyft 40+ hours a week in this illusion that they are doing well. That is preventing people from claiming unemployment
The prophet speaks!!
Anti Corporate Policies >>> you mean policies that benefit the COMMON MAN !!
Comparing the job growth of the LAST 3 years of Obama to that of the FIRST 3 years of Trump is totally nonsensical. It's like comparison of oranges and apples! What happened to the first 5 years of Obama? Jeffrey Gundlach is a buffoon talking crazy.
Fed should have listened to the interview Gundlach did back in February '19
Anyone still thinking of voting Labour ask yourself one question. In the 40 years Corbyn has been an MP why has no Labour Leader offered him a position on cabinet or shadow cabinet😲
wow,,,really smart guy,,,,,,,,,,,
Keep in mind the 30 year treasury was 14 % in 1980. The bond market can get it wrong in a big way too.
ANDREW YANG 2020
This guy is amazing. A joy to hear and nurture the mind
Im going to take it one step further and say the whole thing is going to meltdown. There wont be a new policy. Everyone will be left to themselves. And new ecoonomies, financial systems and nations will form good or bad.
He does'nt understand Repo. Armstrong states its nothing to do with QE to stimulate the economy, but
to stop the rise of interest rates.
I think this guy is saying we are screwed.
Gundlach at his best... I just think "what's his name" questions were somewhat weak
QE FOUR ????
great analyse HERE ! cnbc in information mode ?
So putting together what Zoltan Pozsar has been saying about dollar liquidity and Gundlacks assessment on dollar correlation with offshore purchases of unhedged US corporate bonds... Can the potential domino effects be ... dollar liquidity issues causes a spike in US treasury yields, forcing the Fed to engage in full blown QE at the long end, causes dollar to drop like a rock, which in turn causes a selling of in corporate bonds.... and stock market slide thru it all?
Gundlach is right there will be no trade deal soon.
Because someone who looked like him committed a crime in another country.
So disappointed in Gundlach. Guy has no idea what's going on. Cuts recession forecast to 35%. Remember people he has philosophy background, now he's just going with middle ground neutral argument. May be he's lying to the media, may be to his investors, may be to himself. Resultant is same. He's in uncharted waters. To some degree we all are.
This market may never ever crash. In fiat systems, central banks can purchase unlimited assets as need be. Learn MMT. That's our future.
Probably should just remain the silent boob!
Focus is on the when and how but not the why. The why is the most important question. The fact is that the disaster waiting to happen has been there long before 2008.
First of all, investment analysis is extremely complex. Even many investment advisors truly only understand the results and not the mechanisms of financial instruments. In such situations, street sense or basic laws will help even the mere layman to not fall a fool. 1 - There is NO LOSS without GAIN. This means that for every loss in a recession or otherwise, there has to be an equal gain in some form or another somewhere else. 2 - It is the change in value and not the absolute value itself that creates happiness or misery. For example, A house whether priced at USD 100,000 or USD 10,000,000 makes no difference. However, the same pleasure is felt for a 10% gain and the same desperation for a 50% loss. What this means to the average person or family is their life is no different whether the total market capital or GDP is 1 billion or 1 trillion or 1 billion trillion. Whatever, the size, the same pain or pleasure comes from the same relative change.
With those rules in mind, the why. It is simply that output is much much higher than consumption. Why is output higher than consumption? Basic rule is that the same work should be required to consume as to produce. How much is it higher. Well, think that only 20% of GDP roughly translated to 20% work is required for every person in the developed world to live a happy and healthy life. Automation, energy valued well below its true cost, non-government individuals or companies benefiting from differences in absolute values of different countries.These are the 3 basic causes.
If it is so simple, why don't our presidents, chancellors or prime ministers fix the problem by getting together and reducing the output? Above lies the answer. Election is a competition and the maximum view is 5 years in most countries. Unfortunately, that is an extremely short-term view to fix this problem. Therefore, it is much easier to manipulate the consumption side made even easier thanks to our financial institutions and the great brains within them. Don't forget, happiness and therefore re-election comes from growth. No one cares for stable absolute values.
The environment has an equally simple solution. To wet the taste buds, here it is. The law of economics is perfect except for one flaw. It has a short term view because we are and therefore our greed is short-sighted. To fix it.....simply add the future cost to all resources*. Extremely easy to do with the barrier only being our wonderful equally short-sighted politicians. If one great person or all together can get that done, no more talk about climate warming, saving fuel, flying less, driving less, child heroes or doomsday scientists. The wonderful law of economics or in other words greed alone will effortlessly drive to the solution in the fastest time.
*Caveat - future cost charged must be equal to and directly used to offset the actual impact of use.
That spun my head around
Definitely some sound logic there🎭
Jeffrey Gundlach...You weren't clear.Free money to get us out of Debt to Inflation. Can you expound or explain the Free Money to US out of Debt to Inflation.More details required to make any sense of it.
CNBC very hostile compared to prior Gundlach interviews but he handles it very well
Stop cutting out the GOOD STUFF. @13:08 28:36
Tantrums in military runnings and swimmings.
Smart and handsome!
Does this guy have an opinion on Bitcoin ?
It's not right to talk so much
if you're not at other people's level
when you claim "California/New_York."
Gundlach sounds like someone that shorted the market..and lost
You also can't persuade retail investors into the market with Billionaires saying to do it ! U need a 30% decline
What do you say about the 252k jobless print from today??
Tell me about the job QUALITY.
El Ac idk, im just curious is all, that’s why I ask the question because Jeff says if we go somewhere above or around
250k jobless claims we could use that as a possible indicator
@@josephdeyoung8754 Fair enough. I also misread your post. You asked about "jobless claims." But the response to your question and to its opposite jobs report, is to "ask about/look at the quality of the jobs produced and lost."
Always helpful to look at what the reports are actually measuring and how. Can't remember exactly, but at least one report is a statistical survey. So the #s reported are basically guesses, not actual tallies of every person meeting the criteria. The other things to know are what it means to "be employed," and at what point someone is no longer counted (for any reason) among the "unemployed."
As for the "low" unemployment rate vs. "low" inflation, again, go look at the mix and quality of jobs that has been produced over the last decade. People working few hours and/or making low wages (relative to the cost of living)... This is why you have the "low" inflation that people keep talking about (even though inflation isn't actually low). Hypothetical: 250k people working one hour for $5/hr isn't a sign of a great economy, nor likely to produce a huge bump in economy activity. Hence, the "low unemployment rate, low inflation" (false) narrative.
El Ac I think inflation is coming to the consumer. I’m seeing it at the grocery store 20-30% markups on items. Also the sneaky ones are the utilities. Many people don’t think about or question inflation appearing there but it does and it will and that’s where it’s felt.
@@josephdeyoung8754 Oh, inflation is definitely here. You are absolutely correct, and it's present if one looks at other metrics as well. But the narrative is that there isn't any. And I'm saying that a large part of why the people spouting that tripe can do it is because the quality of jobs being produced is so poor that many people who are working don't actually have any real money to spend. Truthfully, I believe that the true focus of such "inflation" talk is wages, and there, even with the little raises people are supposedly getting, there isn't any inflation (because the wages have been depressed for decades, and because so many people are failing to do math and negotiate accordingly).