Will the Key Reversal in NVDA and Semiconductors Matter?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 27 ก.ย. 2024
- Jim Welsh of Macro Tides sits down with Blake Morrow to discuss the markets following the key reversals in the Semiconductor index and NVDA and how that could influence the broad markets moving forward.
Jim also discusses the majority of economists predicting a “soft landing” as the economic surprise index may be hinting otherwise!
Jim gives his technical views and Elliot Wave counts for the US Dollar, Gold, TLT and the S&P 500.
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Great video Jim and Blake. Love the talk about Nvidia and natural stupidity. Great stuff 👍
Thank you Gordonnr
I would add one more thing. March and April was weak very much because of high inflation numbers as catalyst.
Now. Sorry but comparing technology today to 2000 is not making any sense. At that time, companies could easy cut back k on technology spend, as it did not impact their business as much, internet was pretty much useless and you easy could live without. Today, this is not the case. These big mega cap sosial media company will go bankrupt right away if they did. Second, in 2000 70% of these companies that was customer did not earn money, they did not have an income. Today, these companies has big big big balance sheet and will not have a problem continuing hauling money on these chips. They have to and they will. So your narrative is taken out of context. My company is a customer, we own data center and it is our core business. These data centers did NOT exists even in 2000, the chips makers marked was PCs, low margin and even not many had them. PCs was not common ownership in every household, today every family member has 2-3 devices that need chips. So you comparing something that is not fair. Internet was not useful until 2003-2004 for companies where they started really earning money on this. And as I said, so many customers of intel, sun, Cisco in 99-00 did not have money. They was bankrupt. That is not the case today.
Technology is cyclical. Maybe the pullback in the next recession will be less severe than in 2002 and 2008. Businesses and people will postpone purchases if the economy is in a recession. Over owned stocks get sold when they decline and the economic outlook deteriorates.
Where I live, real estate going higher and higher, people out spending even though resturant prices are up up up, every asset class much higher, gold HAS to go higher
There is a bifurcation in the economy. Net Worth is up 40% since 2020 but it's skewed to the top 25%. That is one factor sustaining spending. For the bottom 40% Excess Savings is gone and credit card debt and defaults are up.
Jim been calling recession for a year. We are almost in July and past his target date. His macro thesis is now incorrect. Goes to show you that continuously investing in major indexes and holding leading stocks is by far better than trying to figure out the economy which no one can. I think Blake should bring my friend David Hunter on the show. 😊
Few stocks are keeping the market up. But Jim is looking at macro and he doesn’t see anything rosy. He still seems to trade on technicals and might be doing ok
cant wait until you look back next year and see if your words are still meaningful
Holding leading stocks is a good strategy. I have not been calling for a recession for a year. I expected the economy to slow in the fourth quarter (not contract which is a recession) and as it held up OK I acknowledged it. Was bullish as the market bottomed in October and April of this year. So I've been using technicals to anticipate corrections i.e. -5% in April and -10% off the July 2023 high and to anticipate the subsequent rallies. My market analysis has been driven by the technicals rather than fundamentals.
@@JimWelshMacro-Market-Trends thank you. Now, lets go to $7,000. Be safe sir.
@@DreamsOfBullRuns Let's keep our head on a swivel just in case it only gets to 6987!