Texas ran out the clock in quite a few games when they could've scored much more. Also, they had games (e.g. Vandy) where penalties changed the game like 20 pts. I think if it would be replayed, Texas would dominate. Also, Texas causes a lot turnovers, and are tremendously consistent and sound on defense. I think one of the biggest advantages for A&M could be the punting game. If they force Texas to punt enough times, they will accumulate a large number of hidden yards. Your model aligns with my thinking...Texas scores 27+ and A&M scores 20 or less.
Texas has beat more Bowl eligible teams than anyone. Texas also shuts down what every team is best at offensively. It all comes down to how well Quinn plays within his pocket.
Sark also likes to switch to ball control in the 2nd half of games. Texas looks to run a lot in the second half to run out the clock when they have a comfortable lead. If you’re playing ball control you’re not going to look for a bunch of long passes or quick strikes. You’re going to do a lot of screens, end arounds, sweeps and power running plays to move the ball on the ground and keep the clock moving. I expect Texas to look to run the ball a lot against TAMU like they did on Arkansas, Kentucky and earlier in the year against Michigan. In the first half though, for Texas, it’s race out to an early lead with explosive plays. That’s the goal anyway. Whether it happens or not we’ll see.
That stat that pointed out Texas A&M‘s opponents have not had a holding penalty called in 30 quarters is incredible. Don’t expect the SEC to change with everything on the line.
As long as the Texas offense doesn't get rattled and turn the ball over like they did against GA, they will win this game. Ewers has not been great this year, but he is capable of taking advantage of the A&M secondary without throwing picks. RBs need to hold on to the damn ball as well.
Why are you acting like this spread is surprising? The vegas is identical to what the computer power rankings have, e.g SP+. A&M has HFA and Vegas probably even gives them an extra point over ordinary HFA given how loud Kyle Field will be for this game. The game comes down to whether Ewers will melt down or not. If he doesn't turn it over Texas will win because A&M won't be able to score on a long field. If Texas gives up defensive TDs and short fields they can lose. Also, look at GA's offensive stats against Texas. The Texas D shut them down. The points GA scored were a result of very short fields.
First people to talk about Marcel Reed being more than a running QB. Great job as usual. Will either be a Texas blowout win or close game.... really excited for this one.
To suggest Texas will blowout A&M at Kyle Field is insane. We’ve lost one game by 10 points at Kyle to ND on our first game of the year with 0 offense. No way Texas wins by more than 3 IF they win.
I wonder if playing in such an emotionally charged rivalry game will make Reed play better or worse. I do think A. Hill will put a healthy fear in the young man. Looking for a good game. Expect the unexpected from Texas.
@@areidexperiment2084 I do expect this to be a very good game Saturday. I know Texas has a good defense, with a talented front 7. But we’ve seen really talented defenses this year. Notre Dame - 2nd defense in the nation South Carolina - 14th defense in the nation Bowling Green - 19th defense in the nation Missouri - 22nd defense in the nation Auburn - 29th defense in the nation. Texas sits with the number 3 defense in the nation, but here is the top offenses you have played this season. Georgia - 29th offense in the nation Arkansas - 46th offense in the nation Vanderbilt - 76th offense in the nation And it just gets worse from there. Offensively A&M is 36th in the nation. Defensively A&M is 38th in the nation. I think Texas’s defense may be a LITTLE bit inflated due to the competition you guys have played, but I do think you have a top 20 defense no doubt. It’ll be interesting to see how Marcel plays considering he has performed better each game. Stats are provided by www.sports-reference.com
Texas has a major flaw with Ewers’ lack of mobility. They’ll struggle with any team that can pressure the passer. But A&M is being hugely overrated here. Yes, their offense is better with Reed (though they’re hurt by not having Moss), but their defense has become increasingly banged up and exposed as the year has gone along. 31-21 Texas.
What team did they struggle against? I’ve watched every play this season and only bad football was first half of Georgia . Vandy game wasn’t close, it was 34-17 after a pick 6 was wrongfully called back… & Arkansas game wasn’t close either. Texas took a knee in the red zone and could have easily scored again… these teams are overwhelmed with Texas size and depth
@ I said they WOULD struggle against any team with a pass rush. They’ve only played one. I’m a ND fan, so I know all about schedules being weaker than planned for, and that’s definitely the case with UT. They’ve played one team with a winning conference record, and one team with a top-tier front 7. Both Georgia.
@@jamess9890 Dude, I said that: “Texas A&M is overrated here.” That’s why I also wrote: “31-21 Texas.” But I stand by the fact that Texas will have issues against any team that can rush the passer. Take a look at top teams in NFL and college right now - how many of them have immobile statues like Quinn Ewers at QB? In the modern game you need QBs with pocket mobility/escapability to beat elite defenses.
I love you guys. Don't let the comments get to you. It's crazy how hard it is to have a conversation about your college football opinions w/o people losing their minds.
I love how you talk about concern with TX because they won "close" games but completely ignore the fact that TAMU has lost 3 games including close game against Bowling Green? You claim that TAMU has "improved" over the course of the year but completely ignore the fact that they just lost to Auburn.
A&M will struggle in 2 key areas. 1) Tex D will be difficult to run on. Hopefully a&m runs the veer read option (did not run it again at Auburn - I still can’t figure out why) and 2) Tex rushing game worries me.
You’re discrediting of the Arkansas/Texas rivalry is obvious but you’re using the argument about the Texas A&M,/Texas rivalry and that would make it a close game. In the case with the Arkansas game, Texas was only up 13 - 10 before putting it away with a long drive. Same happened against Georgia when Georgia was only up 23 - 15 before they put the game away with a long touchdown drive. So what’s the difference?
5 points 😀 And that Arkansas is unranked and Texas was the #1 team in the nation, still is #3. I don't think he was making Tex/Ark a major criticism against Texas, tho. Just a possible point to consider in picking this game.
@@drewc771 my point though is that even when the team is on ranked, but it is a long time rival, that anything could happen and usually does. But he can’t discredit one rivalry results, but use the same argument for another rivalry that nearly equal equally as long. One game was number one versus number three in Austin and not a rivalry in which case Kirby had two weeks to prepare for Texas. The other was Texas versus Arkansas in Fayetteville. This will be number three versus number 20 in college station. In which case, we know now because of Elko’s slip of the tongue, A&M was preparing for Texas instead of Auburn primarily. 🤷🏻♂️
On Texas, everything you said about Texas' offense and Quinn is spot on. He hasn't been elite since his injury and Texas has depended on its defense, which is elite. Even against Georgia, the defense only allowed one long drive. All of the other drives were with very short fields because of offensive turnovers. Looking at TAMU... offensively, I think you can throw out everything before LSU with the QB change. The offense is completely different with Reed. Reed's passing was elite against LSU. Because he threw the ball twice and they were both completions. Importantly, Leveon Moss went out that game, so that Reed Option that was so successful against LSU isn't there as full. Reed is going to keep that ball. Importantly, LSU had prepped for Weigman, so when they pulled him, LSU's defense was not prepared for the Reed option. So that was huge. You saw them figure it out towards the end of the game, but it was too late. A&M has not won an SEC game since. A&M put up 20 on SC where Reed had 1 TD and 1 INT. That was the first game in which teams had seen the new offense with Reed. SC does not have a vaunted defense. A&M's offense just couldn't get points on the board. The offense under Reed put up 31 points on New Mexico St. before he was pulled 2/3 of the way through the 3rd quarter. Reed had 2 TD's and 1 INT that game. 2 of his drives ended in punts. This team is number 6 in Conference USA with a 2-8 overall record and not bowl eligible. Not a powerhouse defense. Against Auburn, Reed had 2 TD's to 1 INT. So basically, since the change in LSU, Reed has played in 2 complete SEC games, you are blending that performance with the LSU game in which he threw 2 passes and a C-USA team that is 0-5 in its conference. Then you are comparing to Ewers, who I already said wasn't elite... but because he was injured, you are looking at performance against CSU, which is in the hunt for the conference title in the Mountain West, Michigan, which isn't good, but is a mid Big 10 team, OU, UGA, Vandy, Florida, Arkansas, and Kentucky. Ewers misses UTSA and Miss St, two of the worst teams on the schedule. So that sample is 7 power 5 teams to one C-USA team (including UGA, one of the best D's in the country). Compare that to 2.5 power 5 teams to 1, and whatever comparison you are making is highly skewed offensively. It is a small sample size blended significantly with a team that hasn't won a conference game in a terrible conference. All that said, it is very possible that Texas A&M wins because a) Ewers appears injured and Sark doesn't want to put Manning in no matter what, to the extent that he ran ball almost every play in the 4th quarter vs Kentucky, b) it is a very emotional game at Kyle Field where A&M have been stewing about losing that last game for over a decade. There aren't numbers for that. It's not a statistical analysis. You aren't even really considering what Texas' D has done against "mobile QB's" like Pavia, Hawkins, and Green. Hint: they shut them down... none of them were as elite as Reed but Pavia is pretty good. The people who know ball better look at matchups because the numbers just don't compute, especially with such dissimilar schedules. In fact, A&M's strength of schedule is roughly equivalent to Texas' with the difference being that the elite team Texas has faced is UGA and the elite team A&M will play is... Texas.
South Carolina has a very good defense. Their defensive line is one of the best in the country. Marcel has gotten better and better week by week with an increased work load. Texas should be favored in this game but if A&M finally puts their best A game together for all 4 quarters, they have the talent and ability to beat texas in a super juiced, atmosphere of the year game.
They are in the upper third of the SEC in scoring defense. Not bad, but not great. I think the Aggies have a shot to win if the ball rolls their direction. You never know in these rivalry games. Auburn should have beat Alabama in the Iron Bowl last year, but they go into that ridiculous prevent D that prevents them from winning. Texas/ A&M is a similar kind of game.
At the risk of sounding overly simplistic, I think this comes down to TAMU front 7. TAMU has elite trench players, but for some reason, their coaching staff made them run stunts instead of just 2-gapping Auburn. If they play man up in the trenches, it’ll more easily nullify Texas wide zone run schemes. If you can shut down their run, like Ga illustrated, it’ll put more pressure on the pass game, which have been slowed down by teams with less talented CBs.
Yes, the defense is the strength of Texas. That is why even Georgia did not do great against the Texas defense. they scored many points but mostly because they were always set up in Texas territory. Georgia did not have great stats that game except where it counted (scoreboard). Texas also has a great o -line. If Texas can run the ball (which they should) and get some protection for Ewers (which again they should even though A&M is better rushing the passer) then the Texas offense should do well. One big caveat is how hurt is Ewers, and does he play hurt? He cannot come out like the 2nd half vs. Kentucky when he was so hurt and immobile. the first half Texas' offense looked great almost unstoppable. If Ewers plays at all like he did in the first half of Kentucky hen A&M is toast. One other thing is the Texas run game. Kentucky could not stop it even though they knew it was coming again and again and again. Can A&M?
Hey Daniel, here's my take; A&M against Auburn was a heavy stunt team, they did a lot of twists, slants, and moving of the 3 tech. It's great against inside zone, it gets destroyed by outside zone and wide zone, which Texas runs a lot of. So I do think Texas will be able to run the ball against A&M. I don't think A&M's secondary is going to be able to stay attached to the WR Core Texas has, which matters because A&M is a power rush based team, and Texas has had a lot of success against that this season. Interestingly though, Texas has struggled against stunts at times, which could be something A&M does a lot of. I've watched the OLine for Texas, and the thing that kills them is the fact that Ewers can't navigate the pocket. I tracked 5 self sacks against Georgia, a couple more against Arkansas, and there were definitely one or two against Vandy. I think Sark will try and YAC Aggies to death, and the Aggies have not shown any level of eye-discipline, or ability to tackle in space. That's where the chess match and fun comes from in terms of Elko vs Sark. Against Auburn, A&M struggled with the deep ball, but also tackling in space. Do they try and take the deep ball from Texas, and leave with YAC? Or do they load the box and allow Texas to take shots and hope they don't convert.This comes down to the fact that when I've watched the tape of A&M (not the tv copy), I've seen A&M line up in the same coverage on first and second down consistently, and I believe Sark will annihilate that. Despite the fact that I don't think Ewers is a title winning QB, I think he's good enough to win this game because Sark will scheme stuff open. On the flip side, I don't think Reed is a very good passer, and I vehemently disagree with Josh's assessment on Reed. Having watched him, I think he stays on his first read way too long, doesn't let plays progress, and leaves pockets to rush because of that. I've seen Texas be able to contain running QB's, (Hawkins, Green, Pavia). I don't see a path for A&M to get over 20 points without some special teams crazyiness or turnovers. With that said, I have Texas 23-13. I think Texas wins this game because of their run game, and we leave with the same questions we had about Texas heading into the game, can Ewers win a game for Texas, I still say no.
Listen, this Texas defense will shut them down like they did everyone else. Even Georgia struggled against that defense, and actually Georgia played very poorly against the Texas defense. Texas lost that game because the Georgia defense was on a different level that night… all these teams Texas has beat in the SEC are beating teams like Georgia, Alabama , Tennessee… Don’t be foolish, this is a championship caliber defense.. and as we know an elite defense will take the game over eventually, likely by the third quarter
Texas 8&4 will do what they do best and go 8-4 on the season. Texas sneaks by on a missed field goal for A&M, 21-20 I feel like this will be low-scoring no matter what, Texas's defense is really good but their offense just hasn't shown a top-end gear. A&M's best bet to put points on the board is through the run game, which will drain clock and take away possessions from both teams.
Oh heck no. The model consistently overvalues teams with easier schedules - to the point where we put a disclaimer online about it. This is an issue with most all modeling. It often has G5 teams close in bowls vs power teams that we (correctly) project to be 3+ score wins.
Yes, the game plan will be very similar to Oklahoma, I think. Oklahoma played their young running QB. Oklahoma also had a big defensive front with great defensive ends and linebackers. Similar to A&M.
Without the tip and return for 6, this game would have been easily in the 20s/30s to 0. Burt Auburn missed a 40+ yard field goal going into halftime also. Where does this model get these predictions?
Reed is gonna be disturbed by Texas’s ability to edge contain while rush/blitzing. The way he rolls to pass is gonna get shut down. Texas will be able to heat him up. Somewhat like Greene from Ark. Yes Reed is a better passer than Greene but there won’t be enough time. All of these deep developing routes aren’t gonna have time. And I get the secondary hasn’t seen a beast but A&M isn’t that beast. Texas’s athleticism back there is apparent. Texas offense is what scares me as it always does. However 31-23 Texas. Reed is young and he is about to see some true speed at edge and LB. If Alabama Quinn shows up it won’t be close. Of course that is rare. Texas’s defense has absolutely destroyed bad teams.
Is there another team in the nation that gets more credit than they deserve more than A&M? Even the Nerds guy was trying to rationalize picking them time and again even though they go 8-4 every year. Sure, A&M has a chance. I just don’t see how they are going to put up points on Texas. If Arch comes into the game, he’s not the veteran the Ewers is but he’s mobile and the YPA for the O will dramatically increase. I think the model is closer than the humans here.
At what point does winning every game except one by double digits matter? Like I’d get it if Texas was barely beating teams but other than Georgia, and then Vanderbilt who scored a late a TD to make it a 1 score game, the next closest margin of victory has been ten. And all these other SEC teams have been losing to these same teams Texas has beaten by double digits.
🗣️ Texas plays a weak schedule. Yet they have one loss. SEC is the deepest conference until Texas wins and then the goalpost is moved. Ole Miss, Bama, and Tennessee all lost to teams they should not have lost too. Texas just so happens to not have lost the “easy” SEC games. Texas 27 Aggie 21 Hook em 🤘
This game will be close. Texas rarely plays well in College Station. A prime example is the 2005 National champ team you know the one with Vince Young. They were favored by 3 TDs and barely eked out a win. It cost Vince the Heisman.
Generally love your analysis, but you guys do this every year with mostly SEC teams or teams who fit your narrative that they got better throughout the year and are actually way better than their record and a top 25 quality team.
The fact that you said you would pick A&M to beat Notre Dame right now with the confidence you have is the exact reason why everyone is complaining about SEC bias. A&M has lost to a bad auburn team and a unproven South Carolina yet you still unequivocally think they are better. When people make comments like this about the SEC it takes away credibility from the rest of their conference.
Does Sark want to win this game? A lot of folks are chattering that it is better to skip the SECCG and prepare for the playoff. TX can lose this game and still make the playoffs, so will it play to win?
Playoffs are not the goal for Texas. The goal all offseason and all season is win the SEC championship. Playoffs would be secondary. Sark wants to win.
I also think the Aggies are far more battle tested than Texas and I think it matters. I think a lot has to go right for Texas. This whole idea of Texas just skating into the seccg first year with everything the Aggies have been through in the sec. Its not at all hard to imagine the Aggies having an over my dead body attitude. Aggies 35-24
Y’all really don’t watch games from what I can tell. Your analysis was pretty pathetic, and many statements made seem like you just see a final score and maybe a highlight reel or two. Pathetic.
A&M got drug by SC because of three things in my opinion. 1. Not have Moss and getting stuffed twice in A&M territory on 4th and short 2. Giving up 4th and short in SC territory & 3. The ATROCIOUS tackling...thats the game
Dude you’re saying Arky, Kentucky , Vandy are “bad teams”? Bro they beat Alabama , Tennessee , ole miss… Texas physically DOMINATED those teams and suffocated their gameplan . Stop trolling bro
@@CollegeFootballNerds Kentucky played UGA to the wire. They beat Ole Miss. Arkansas beat Tennessee. Agree they are not good in the SEC, but what would they do in other leagues. I guess Ole Miss, Alabama, and Tenn are bad teams as well right???
easy beans 🤘 then on to atl to show you why we let georgy win the other day. the plan coming into this conference was to send saban into retirement then destroy uga on a big stage, aggie and all others will benefit in the long run recruitment wise
These predictions are wild. Neither of them have seen how Texas finishes games and why the stats look the way they do. 😂 Everyone pick aggie. It's funnier to see them cry when they have hope before they suffer an awful loss 🤘
That Vandy game should have been a loss...had vandy trusted their D down 7 on Vandy 35 and punted, Vandys score is to tie the game up, not go down 3.....Texas drove 27 yards and kicked a fg to go up 10
Dude you’re losing all credibility.. A&M would get smeared by Notre dame if they played again. This A&M team is unsophisticated, simpleton offense. & A&M’s average SEC record is 3.8-4.2 … A&M is elementary compared to Texas. This won’t be a close game, take it to the bank.
Texas hasn't lost a road game since October of 2022. I don't feel like that's being talked about enough... And they just faced an Arkansas team who was one of the best offenses in the SEC and almost completely shut them down. So tired of hearing the narrative. And A&M didn't play Georgia, Tennessee, Ole Miss, or Alabama this year. So why the hell are they dodging the narrative that they haven't played anybody????? It's so easy to see you guys are just staring at spread sheets and not breaking down film.
Texas didn't play Ole Miss, Tennessee or Alabama this year either. Instead they played Colorado State, UTSA & UL Monroe. That's where the narrative comes from that you guys haven't had a REAL SEC experience. Nor did you guys play LSU or Mizzou. OU on the other hand has had a much more difficult schedule than Texas, either way welcome to the SEC.
@@davida730 Technically Texas has played 4 road games. The RRSO was a road game played in a neutral site. It i much more of a road game than Tennessee playing Vandy on the road.
Texas ran out the clock in quite a few games when they could've scored much more. Also, they had games (e.g. Vandy) where penalties changed the game like 20 pts. I think if it would be replayed, Texas would dominate. Also, Texas causes a lot turnovers, and are tremendously consistent and sound on defense. I think one of the biggest advantages for A&M could be the punting game. If they force Texas to punt enough times, they will accumulate a large number of hidden yards. Your model aligns with my thinking...Texas scores 27+ and A&M scores 20 or less.
Texas has beat more Bowl eligible teams than anyone. Texas also shuts down what every team is best at offensively. It all comes down to how well Quinn plays within his pocket.
Sark also likes to switch to ball control in the 2nd half of games. Texas looks to run a lot in the second half to run out the clock when they have a comfortable lead. If you’re playing ball control you’re not going to look for a bunch of long passes or quick strikes. You’re going to do a lot of screens, end arounds, sweeps and power running plays to move the ball on the ground and keep the clock moving.
I expect Texas to look to run the ball a lot against TAMU like they did on Arkansas, Kentucky and earlier in the year against Michigan.
In the first half though, for Texas, it’s race out to an early lead with explosive plays. That’s the goal anyway. Whether it happens or not we’ll see.
That stat that pointed out Texas A&M‘s opponents have not had a holding penalty called in 30 quarters is incredible. Don’t expect the SEC to change with everything on the line.
As long as the Texas offense doesn't get rattled and turn the ball over like they did against GA, they will win this game. Ewers has not been great this year, but he is capable of taking advantage of the A&M secondary without throwing picks. RBs need to hold on to the damn ball as well.
Man that was frustrating. Our defense has been the key all year long. Even with the Georgia game. I think the trend continues. 🤘
Why are you acting like this spread is surprising? The vegas is identical to what the computer power rankings have, e.g SP+. A&M has HFA and Vegas probably even gives them an extra point over ordinary HFA given how loud Kyle Field will be for this game.
The game comes down to whether Ewers will melt down or not. If he doesn't turn it over Texas will win because A&M won't be able to score on a long field. If Texas gives up defensive TDs and short fields they can lose.
Also, look at GA's offensive stats against Texas. The Texas D shut them down. The points GA scored were a result of very short fields.
First people to talk about Marcel Reed being more than a running QB. Great job as usual. Will either be a Texas blowout win or close game.... really excited for this one.
I don't think they watch the games...he misses too many wide open passes, he needs to work on their accuracy
To suggest Texas will blowout A&M at Kyle Field is insane.
We’ve lost one game by 10 points at Kyle to ND on our first game of the year with 0 offense.
No way Texas wins by more than 3 IF they win.
I wonder if playing in such an emotionally charged rivalry game will make Reed play better or worse. I do think A. Hill will put a healthy fear in the young man. Looking for a good game. Expect the unexpected from Texas.
@@franquil85connhe’s gotten better about that week by week and it’s cut down. Lot of growth in a short amount of time
@@areidexperiment2084 I do expect this to be a very good game Saturday. I know Texas has a good defense, with a talented front 7. But we’ve seen really talented defenses this year.
Notre Dame - 2nd defense in the nation
South Carolina - 14th defense in the nation
Bowling Green - 19th defense in the nation
Missouri - 22nd defense in the nation
Auburn - 29th defense in the nation.
Texas sits with the number 3 defense in the nation, but here is the top offenses you have played this season.
Georgia - 29th offense in the nation
Arkansas - 46th offense in the nation
Vanderbilt - 76th offense in the nation
And it just gets worse from there.
Offensively A&M is 36th in the nation.
Defensively A&M is 38th in the nation.
I think Texas’s defense may be a LITTLE bit inflated due to the competition you guys have played, but I do think you have a top 20 defense no doubt.
It’ll be interesting to see how Marcel plays considering he has performed better each game.
Stats are provided by www.sports-reference.com
Ark has #9 Offense, Ga is # 30.... Texas has played 7 bowl eligible teams and AM would be8... Thats number 1 in SEC..
Texas has a major flaw with Ewers’ lack of mobility. They’ll struggle with any team that can pressure the passer. But A&M is being hugely overrated here.
Yes, their offense is better with Reed (though they’re hurt by not having Moss), but their defense has become increasingly banged up and exposed as the year has gone along.
31-21 Texas.
What team did they struggle against? I’ve watched every play this season and only bad football was first half of Georgia . Vandy game wasn’t close, it was 34-17 after a pick 6 was wrongfully called back… & Arkansas game wasn’t close either. Texas took a knee in the red zone and could have easily scored again… these teams are overwhelmed with Texas size and depth
@ I said they WOULD struggle against any team with a pass rush. They’ve only played one. I’m a ND fan, so I know all about schedules being weaker than planned for, and that’s definitely the case with UT.
They’ve played one team with a winning conference record, and one team with a top-tier front 7. Both Georgia.
@@HeywoodJablowme222 Georgia and A&M is apples to oranges.
@@jamess9890 Dude, I said that: “Texas A&M is overrated here.” That’s why I also wrote: “31-21 Texas.”
But I stand by the fact that Texas will have issues against any team that can rush the passer. Take a look at top teams in NFL and college right now - how many of them have immobile statues like Quinn Ewers at QB? In the modern game you need QBs with pocket mobility/escapability to beat elite defenses.
@@HeywoodJablowme222Texas has the most wins vs bowl eligible teams in the country, with 7.
Texas wins this game. Let’s start talking about what they do against them DAWGS in the SEC championship.
I love you guys. Don't let the comments get to you. It's crazy how hard it is to have a conversation about your college football opinions w/o people losing their minds.
I’m not worried about Texas offense Sark has been planning for this game for a while..Don’t sleep on our RB’s
Texas got it in the bag 🤘
Why?
@@colepriceguitar1153 cause we're better
@@colepriceguitar1153 Because A&Ms longest tradition is losing to Texas.
@@SOLDOZER well a&m loves their tradition so I don’t know why they would’ve broken it thirty plus times.
I love how you talk about concern with TX because they won "close" games but completely ignore the fact that TAMU has lost 3 games including close game against Bowling Green? You claim that TAMU has "improved" over the course of the year but completely ignore the fact that they just lost to Auburn.
Pretty sure they addressed those exact points
Reed will be running for his life the whole game..Our edge players will have 6 sacks 🤘🏾
A&M will struggle in 2 key areas. 1) Tex D will be difficult to run on. Hopefully a&m runs the veer read option (did not run it again at Auburn - I still can’t figure out why) and 2) Tex rushing game worries me.
You’re discrediting of the Arkansas/Texas rivalry is obvious but you’re using the argument about the Texas A&M,/Texas rivalry and that would make it a close game. In the case with the Arkansas game, Texas was only up 13 - 10 before putting it away with a long drive. Same happened against Georgia when Georgia was only up 23 - 15 before they put the game away with a long touchdown drive. So what’s the difference?
5 points 😀
And that Arkansas is unranked and Texas was the #1 team in the nation, still is #3.
I don't think he was making Tex/Ark a major criticism against Texas, tho. Just a possible point to consider in picking this game.
@@drewc771 my point though is that even when the team is on ranked, but it is a long time rival, that anything could happen and usually does. But he can’t discredit one rivalry results, but use the same argument for another rivalry that nearly equal equally as long. One game was number one versus number three in Austin and not a rivalry in which case Kirby had two weeks to prepare for Texas. The other was Texas versus Arkansas in Fayetteville. This will be number three versus number 20 in college station. In which case, we know now because of Elko’s slip of the tongue, A&M was preparing for Texas instead of Auburn primarily. 🤷🏻♂️
On Texas, everything you said about Texas' offense and Quinn is spot on. He hasn't been elite since his injury and Texas has depended on its defense, which is elite. Even against Georgia, the defense only allowed one long drive. All of the other drives were with very short fields because of offensive turnovers.
Looking at TAMU... offensively, I think you can throw out everything before LSU with the QB change. The offense is completely different with Reed. Reed's passing was elite against LSU. Because he threw the ball twice and they were both completions. Importantly, Leveon Moss went out that game, so that Reed Option that was so successful against LSU isn't there as full. Reed is going to keep that ball. Importantly, LSU had prepped for Weigman, so when they pulled him, LSU's defense was not prepared for the Reed option. So that was huge. You saw them figure it out towards the end of the game, but it was too late.
A&M has not won an SEC game since. A&M put up 20 on SC where Reed had 1 TD and 1 INT. That was the first game in which teams had seen the new offense with Reed. SC does not have a vaunted defense. A&M's offense just couldn't get points on the board.
The offense under Reed put up 31 points on New Mexico St. before he was pulled 2/3 of the way through the 3rd quarter. Reed had 2 TD's and 1 INT that game. 2 of his drives ended in punts. This team is number 6 in Conference USA with a 2-8 overall record and not bowl eligible. Not a powerhouse defense.
Against Auburn, Reed had 2 TD's to 1 INT. So basically, since the change in LSU, Reed has played in 2 complete SEC games, you are blending that performance with the LSU game in which he threw 2 passes and a C-USA team that is 0-5 in its conference.
Then you are comparing to Ewers, who I already said wasn't elite... but because he was injured, you are looking at performance against CSU, which is in the hunt for the conference title in the Mountain West, Michigan, which isn't good, but is a mid Big 10 team, OU, UGA, Vandy, Florida, Arkansas, and Kentucky. Ewers misses UTSA and Miss St, two of the worst teams on the schedule. So that sample is 7 power 5 teams to one C-USA team (including UGA, one of the best D's in the country). Compare that to 2.5 power 5 teams to 1, and whatever comparison you are making is highly skewed offensively. It is a small sample size blended significantly with a team that hasn't won a conference game in a terrible conference.
All that said, it is very possible that Texas A&M wins because a) Ewers appears injured and Sark doesn't want to put Manning in no matter what, to the extent that he ran ball almost every play in the 4th quarter vs Kentucky, b) it is a very emotional game at Kyle Field where A&M have been stewing about losing that last game for over a decade. There aren't numbers for that. It's not a statistical analysis. You aren't even really considering what Texas' D has done against "mobile QB's" like Pavia, Hawkins, and Green. Hint: they shut them down... none of them were as elite as Reed but Pavia is pretty good.
The people who know ball better look at matchups because the numbers just don't compute, especially with such dissimilar schedules. In fact, A&M's strength of schedule is roughly equivalent to Texas' with the difference being that the elite team Texas has faced is UGA and the elite team A&M will play is... Texas.
South Carolina has a very good defense. Their defensive line is one of the best in the country. Marcel has gotten better and better week by week with an increased work load. Texas should be favored in this game but if A&M finally puts their best A game together for all 4 quarters, they have the talent and ability to beat texas in a super juiced, atmosphere of the year game.
They are in the upper third of the SEC in scoring defense. Not bad, but not great.
I think the Aggies have a shot to win if the ball rolls their direction. You never know in these rivalry games. Auburn should have beat Alabama in the Iron Bowl last year, but they go into that ridiculous prevent D that prevents them from winning. Texas/ A&M is a similar kind of game.
At the risk of sounding overly simplistic, I think this comes down to TAMU front 7. TAMU has elite trench players, but for some reason, their coaching staff made them run stunts instead of just 2-gapping Auburn. If they play man up in the trenches, it’ll more easily nullify Texas wide zone run schemes. If you can shut down their run, like Ga illustrated, it’ll put more pressure on the pass game, which have been slowed down by teams with less talented CBs.
A&Ms front 7 is not equal to GA. The LB play is significantly less than GA and far less depth. I’m an Aggie …
I hope you "insiders" acknowledge how good Texas is now!
"Hook Em"
That top 12 vid this week gonna hit like crack
Yes, the defense is the strength of Texas. That is why even Georgia did not do great against the Texas defense. they scored many points but mostly because they were always set up in Texas territory. Georgia did not have great stats that game except where it counted (scoreboard).
Texas also has a great o -line. If Texas can run the ball (which they should) and get some protection for Ewers (which again they should even though A&M is better rushing the passer) then the Texas offense should do well.
One big caveat is how hurt is Ewers, and does he play hurt? He cannot come out like the 2nd half vs. Kentucky when he was so hurt and immobile. the first half Texas' offense looked great almost unstoppable. If Ewers plays at all like he did in the first half of Kentucky hen A&M is toast. One other thing is the Texas run game. Kentucky could not stop it even though they knew it was coming again and again and again. Can A&M?
What’s with the sound? It’s almost like the mic isn’t working and the computer is picking up the echo in the room.
Primary audio failed had to use the backup.
Texas 31-17
I kind of like that score. Hopefully it holds true. 🤘
Hey Daniel, here's my take;
A&M against Auburn was a heavy stunt team, they did a lot of twists, slants, and moving of the 3 tech. It's great against inside zone, it gets destroyed by outside zone and wide zone, which Texas runs a lot of. So I do think Texas will be able to run the ball against A&M. I don't think A&M's secondary is going to be able to stay attached to the WR Core Texas has, which matters because A&M is a power rush based team, and Texas has had a lot of success against that this season. Interestingly though, Texas has struggled against stunts at times, which could be something A&M does a lot of. I've watched the OLine for Texas, and the thing that kills them is the fact that Ewers can't navigate the pocket. I tracked 5 self sacks against Georgia, a couple more against Arkansas, and there were definitely one or two against Vandy. I think Sark will try and YAC Aggies to death, and the Aggies have not shown any level of eye-discipline, or ability to tackle in space. That's where the chess match and fun comes from in terms of Elko vs Sark. Against Auburn, A&M struggled with the deep ball, but also tackling in space. Do they try and take the deep ball from Texas, and leave with YAC? Or do they load the box and allow Texas to take shots and hope they don't convert.This comes down to the fact that when I've watched the tape of A&M (not the tv copy), I've seen A&M line up in the same coverage on first and second down consistently, and I believe Sark will annihilate that. Despite the fact that I don't think Ewers is a title winning QB, I think he's good enough to win this game because Sark will scheme stuff open.
On the flip side, I don't think Reed is a very good passer, and I vehemently disagree with Josh's assessment on Reed. Having watched him, I think he stays on his first read way too long, doesn't let plays progress, and leaves pockets to rush because of that. I've seen Texas be able to contain running QB's, (Hawkins, Green, Pavia). I don't see a path for A&M to get over 20 points without some special teams crazyiness or turnovers.
With that said, I have Texas 23-13. I think Texas wins this game because of their run game, and we leave with the same questions we had about Texas heading into the game, can Ewers win a game for Texas, I still say no.
Listen, this Texas defense will shut them down like they did everyone else. Even Georgia struggled against that defense, and actually Georgia played very poorly against the Texas defense. Texas lost that game because the Georgia defense was on a different level that night… all these teams Texas has beat in the SEC are beating teams like Georgia, Alabama , Tennessee… Don’t be foolish, this is a championship caliber defense.. and as we know an elite defense will take the game over eventually, likely by the third quarter
It would be so in keeping with this season for aTm to win.
Also would love for GT to beat Uga and SEC end up a 1bid league.
They will be at least a 3 bid team count on it. Even it Texas loses this game they will get an at large.
Texas A&M - 27
Texas - 24
Go Dawgs! Sic Em!
Edit: Wow. I commented my score before I seen you guys score predictions.
Nice, you can both be wrong now 🚮
We know you Georgia fans don't want to see Texas again.
@@jonathanhouser8194as an actual Ga fan, not only do I want Texas again, but I think Texas will gash TAMU with out side zone runs.
Right…. Lmaoo Aggies can’t win a game like this. They never have . Texas owns this rivalry and this conference.
@jdtheguitartist and TX sends GA home for a bowl game
Texas 8&4 will do what they do best and go 8-4 on the season. Texas sneaks by on a missed field goal for A&M, 21-20
I feel like this will be low-scoring no matter what, Texas's defense is really good but their offense just hasn't shown a top-end gear. A&M's best bet to put points on the board is through the run game, which will drain clock and take away possessions from both teams.
Serious question for the Nerds: is this the most y'all have ever deviated from the model prediction?
Oh heck no. The model consistently overvalues teams with easier schedules - to the point where we put a disclaimer online about it. This is an issue with most all modeling. It often has G5 teams close in bowls vs power teams that we (correctly) project to be 3+ score wins.
With the way the SEC has been going anything can happen!
Yes, the game plan will be very similar to Oklahoma, I think. Oklahoma played their young running QB. Oklahoma also had a big defensive front with great defensive ends and linebackers. Similar to A&M.
Without the tip and return for 6, this game would have been easily in the 20s/30s to 0. Burt Auburn missed a 40+ yard field goal going into halftime also. Where does this model get these predictions?
Have you ever had a mirrored score prediction before?
Thanks for the Thanksgiving Week content! I am in favor of chaos! More Texas A&M!
I have been waiting for this game for 13 years, and i have my tickets ready.
Ags: 24
horns: 20
BTHO tu
Dang I am early today, but couldn’t miss this one
Y’all gonna do a video about Notre Dame V USC
6:00 in and this is feeling A LOT like the models bout to give us Texas aTm to massively upset Texas.
Reed is gonna be disturbed by Texas’s ability to edge contain while rush/blitzing. The way he rolls to pass is gonna get shut down. Texas will be able to heat him up. Somewhat like Greene from Ark. Yes Reed is a better passer than Greene but there won’t be enough time. All of these deep developing routes aren’t gonna have time. And I get the secondary hasn’t seen a beast but A&M isn’t that beast. Texas’s athleticism back there is apparent.
Texas offense is what scares me as it always does. However 31-23 Texas. Reed is young and he is about to see some true speed at edge and LB. If Alabama Quinn shows up it won’t be close. Of course that is rare.
Texas’s defense has absolutely destroyed bad teams.
Reed rarely rolls to pass.
Confused. Where is the score prediction of the Alabama-Auburn game? LOL
A&M not going going to be fourth in the West this year. Progress I guess
Is there another team in the nation that gets more credit than they deserve more than A&M? Even the Nerds guy was trying to rationalize picking them time and again even though they go 8-4 every year.
Sure, A&M has a chance. I just don’t see how they are going to put up points on Texas.
If Arch comes into the game, he’s not the veteran the Ewers is but he’s mobile and the YPA for the O will dramatically increase.
I think the model is closer than the humans here.
Texas 27 TAMU 12
I don’t understand the consistent talk about Texas’ schedule with the ignoring of Texas A&M’s schedule. Who has A&M played? A crappy Missouri and LSU?
At what point does winning every game except one by double digits matter? Like I’d get it if Texas was barely beating teams but other than Georgia, and then Vanderbilt who scored a late a TD to make it a 1 score game, the next closest margin of victory has been ten. And all these other SEC teams have been losing to these same teams Texas has beaten by double digits.
Arch or Quinn can beat A&M's secondary. Texas will be able to run as the game goes on. Texas is so much better defensively. They will win. 🤘🤘
🗣️ Texas plays a weak schedule. Yet they have one loss. SEC is the deepest conference until Texas wins and then the goalpost is moved. Ole Miss, Bama, and Tennessee all lost to teams they should not have lost too. Texas just so happens to not have lost the “easy” SEC games. Texas 27 Aggie 21 Hook em 🤘
So Texas exposed the SEC as not being as tough as its reputation. You can’t have it both ways
Texas is better off with arch playing in this game than Quinn. Lack of mobility vs tamu d line is a bad combo.
This game will be close. Texas rarely plays well in College Station. A prime example is the 2005 National champ team you know the one with Vince Young. They were favored by 3 TDs and barely eked out a win. It cost Vince the Heisman.
Yall forget that uga had 3 picks by beck and still blasted texas at home.
Pick your game uuup unde coach win the games count the most as a head coach and finish"
Aggies just love losing
Generally love your analysis, but you guys do this every year with mostly SEC teams or teams who fit your narrative that they got better throughout the year and are actually way better than their record and a top 25 quality team.
Can't wait to be at this game on Saturday!
Texas A&M 27 - Texas 20
Gig 'em!
That is an aggie of final score there. I think the ags will win but it will be by a field goal or less.
Josh. Danny fell in the well. Send him instructions on hooking up his mic.
His primary audio failed so we had to use a camera backup. We aren’t in a position to re-record right now.
The fact that you said you would pick A&M to beat Notre Dame right now with the confidence you have is the exact reason why everyone is complaining about SEC bias. A&M has lost to a bad auburn team and a unproven South Carolina yet you still unequivocally think they are better. When people make comments like this about the SEC it takes away credibility from the rest of their conference.
Does Sark want to win this game? A lot of folks are chattering that it is better to skip the SECCG and prepare for the playoff. TX can lose this game and still make the playoffs, so will it play to win?
Yes, he will play to win.
Playoffs are not the goal for Texas. The goal all offseason and all season is win the SEC championship. Playoffs would be secondary. Sark wants to win.
Womp womp A&M scored ZERO offensive points
I also think the Aggies are far more battle tested than Texas and I think it matters. I think a lot has to go right for Texas. This whole idea of Texas just skating into the seccg first year with everything the Aggies have been through in the sec. Its not at all hard to imagine the Aggies having an over my dead body attitude. Aggies 35-24
Hot start to the commentary by not getting Texas’ number of road games wrong 🤦♂️ We played AT Michigan (W), AT Vanderbilt (W), AT Arkansas (W).
Lol everything about your model was WRONG!
Y’all really don’t watch games from what I can tell. Your analysis was pretty pathetic, and many statements made seem like you just see a final score and maybe a highlight reel or two. Pathetic.
Feel free to watch someone else.
I think they are just gambling addicts that just look at numbers and dont even watch games.
Where my T-Shirt Horns fans at?????? A&M 31 TU 21
Wow some good stuff up in College Station...
A&M got drug by SC because of three things in my opinion.
1. Not have Moss and getting stuffed twice in A&M territory on 4th and short
2. Giving up 4th and short in SC territory &
3. The ATROCIOUS tackling...thats the game
I got Texas losing to a n m and I got Georgia losing to tech
You gotta be a Vols fan or Alabama fan. 😅. Am I right?
Dude you’re saying Arky, Kentucky , Vandy are “bad teams”? Bro they beat Alabama , Tennessee , ole miss… Texas physically DOMINATED those teams and suffocated their gameplan . Stop trolling bro
Arkansas and Kentucky are 2 of the worst 3 teams in the SEC. Miss State is the 3rd. Vandy is a solid team but that was a one-score win.
@@CollegeFootballNerds Kentucky played UGA to the wire. They beat Ole Miss. Arkansas beat Tennessee. Agree they are not good in the SEC, but what would they do in other leagues. I guess Ole Miss, Alabama, and Tenn are bad teams as well right???
I got Texas a n m beating Georgia in the sec title
Lol
easy beans 🤘 then on to atl to show you why we let georgy win the other day. the plan coming into this conference was to send saban into retirement then destroy uga on a big stage, aggie and all others will benefit in the long run recruitment wise
These predictions are wild. Neither of them have seen how Texas finishes games and why the stats look the way they do. 😂 Everyone pick aggie. It's funnier to see them cry when they have hope before they suffer an awful loss 🤘
That Vandy game should have been a loss...had vandy trusted their D down 7 on Vandy 35 and punted, Vandys score is to tie the game up, not go down 3.....Texas drove 27 yards and kicked a fg to go up 10
Dude you’re losing all credibility.. A&M would get smeared by Notre dame if they played again. This A&M team is unsophisticated, simpleton offense. & A&M’s average SEC record is 3.8-4.2 … A&M is elementary compared to Texas. This won’t be a close game, take it to the bank.
ND beats A&M and UT both by 4 TDs. Go Irish!
Why? Cause they can destroy the service academies?
lol 4 tds. Funniest comment all day.
I got a&m beating Texas and Georgia beating a&m Georgia has gotten dangerous and was testing things out on UMass that looked like Georgia of recent
Was allowing 21 part of that test?
Texas hasn't lost a road game since October of 2022. I don't feel like that's being talked about enough... And they just faced an Arkansas team who was one of the best offenses in the SEC and almost completely shut them down. So tired of hearing the narrative.
And A&M didn't play Georgia, Tennessee, Ole Miss, or Alabama this year. So why the hell are they dodging the narrative that they haven't played anybody????? It's so easy to see you guys are just staring at spread sheets and not breaking down film.
Texas didn't play Ole Miss, Tennessee or Alabama this year either. Instead they played Colorado State, UTSA & UL Monroe. That's where the narrative comes from that you guys haven't had a REAL SEC experience. Nor did you guys play LSU or Mizzou. OU on the other hand has had a much more difficult schedule than Texas, either way welcome to the SEC.
While impressive, that's only 11 games. Texas has only played 3 road games so far this season which is wild.
@@davida730 Technically Texas has played 4 road games. The RRSO was a road game played in a neutral site. It i much more of a road game than Tennessee playing Vandy on the road.