Binkov videos are never going to be fully accurate because of how they purposefully ignore 3rd parties to the conflicts. Stuff like global sanctions and invading through Belarus aren't accounted for.
There's no need to criticize Binkov for neglecting the Belarus axis of invasion. He made the video before the Russian forces entered Belarus on the pretext of maneuvers. The key points Binkov made are that Russia will get what it wants quickly and any Russian suffering will be felt only in the very long term.
7:56 Since it seems everyone thought Putin could be bluffing and with Europe as hesitant as it is, it seems he felt an all or nothing approach was worth it A video about a Russia determined and ready to devote the necessary resources to take as much as it can might as well be only a few seconds Russia dominates, no contest
@@GespenstDesKommunismus _"I'd argue Putin wants the entire Ukraine"_ Given the sizes of the Russian invading forces and the directions in which they've advanced, I don't think Putini ever planned to _forcibly_ occupy the whole country. Instead, his *military* objective was to occupy the southern coast, taking control of the ports and access to the Black Sea, thereby making a land bridge connecting Crimea and the Donbas. He's successfully achieved his military objective. His *political* objective was to overthrow the government in Kyiv, in the hope that this would end Ukrainian resistance. Kyiv still hasn't fallen and Ukrainians continue to resist, so he's failed to achieve his political objective, as yet.
@@GonzoTehGreat Not quite, he planned to quickly take Kiev to insert a new gouvernment by force and then put the entire Ukraine under the control of his puppet gouvernment using the military. That's essentially an occupation of the whole country
Sadly history repeats itself his analysis was excellent and detailed but I'm an idiot and a lot of this seemed obvious to me before the war however I'm glad I was wrong overall I said Ukraine isn't Chechnya or Georgia it can put up a hell of a fight and give the russian army a bloody nose but Russia will quickly destroy most of there combat units and destroy most of the countrys CCC in a week lol
What wasn't mentioned is that a Russian invasion of Ukraine might also result in both Finland and Sweden joining NATO and a massive increase in the number of troops stationed near Russia to block any possible invasion of a NATO country. Remember, Russia's two demands were: (1) NATO not adding any new members, specifically mentioning Ukraine, Georgia, Sweden and Finland, and (2) removal of all NATO forces from the previous Warsaw Pact nations. An invasion of Ukraine would result in the opposite results on these two points, it would cost thousands of Russian troop lives and the Russian economy would be negatively impacted. It would force Russia to rely more on China, which is the equivalent of putting most or all of their eggs in one basket, especially if China ends up in a war with the US and allies, which would certainly affect trade between China and Russia.
>Ukraine might also result in both Finland and Sweden joining NATO/ Or it would result in the states bordering Russia to balance Russian interests with NATO. Thus resetting the European balance of power. >and a massive increase in the number of troops stationed near Russia to block any possible invasion of a NATO country. So cancel America's pivot to Asia? Considering China's maritime trajectory that isn't happening. > it would cost thousands of Russian troop lives. Remains to be seen, we could also see tens of thousands of Ukrainians surrender in the first week. But i don't have a crystal ball.....
@E Cognitio Balancing Russian interests? Russia isn't the only country in the region, most countries that exist in Europe exist because they value their sovereignty, not because they want to cater to the whims of Russians. That why they join NATO, to protect their interests, instead of that of Russia.
Why would sweden join NATO? I understand Finland joining even if that is also not likely at all as Russia has no intention of expanding into Finland and bordering Sweden. Sweden is a relatively strong country, Russia wouldnt gain anything from threatning Sweden, plus they dont even border Russia.
I think Binkov's analysis is 75% accurate in light of recent events. What he missed out (what we now know) is a) The use of Belarus as a staging post for an axis of advance towards Kyiv, b) the ability of the Ukrainians to communicate with and thereby co-ordinate their forces to resist the Russians. Please remember he is giving the most likely scenario based upon the disposition of forces and the political situation as of the 26th of January 2022.
A lot of people commenting that this aged poorly. Firstly, nobody expected Ukraine to perform as well as it did. Not the West, not Ukraine and certainly not the Russians. Besides that this video was pretty accurate and even when it was not, it still addressed the key aspects of the war as we now know them to exist. With hindsight, had you watched this video right before the invasion took place, you would have been pretty grounded in terms of what to expect from the military and international response. Certainly a better analysis than "Russia has more tanks and jets so will blitzkrieg to Lviv" which was going around beforehand.
You got the basics down perfectly... and then it all went pear-shaped for Russia. Too many attack vectors, horrible logistics, the Rasputitsa, decrepit mechanized infantry... unified Ukraine, unified EU, munitions flooding into Ukraine immediately... oh boy.
Putin was most likely trying to bluff the NATO into giving concessions. That failed and now they're invading to most likely to save face - Just a prediction
Go forward, America and Ukraine! Long live the Nato and its allies! Long live freedom! Down with all dictatorships and terrorists all around the world! Best wishes from Germany!
@@frankmueller6522 Pls don't say that, America has enough influence on the world. They are massive bullies who just abuse power where they see fit. Look at the atrocities in Isreal and Palestine, Israel forcefully taking land and attacking and bombing civilians? And America supports those actions and turns a blind eye towards it, then calls Palestine aggressors if they fight for defending their own land?
Maybe not full annexation but certainly negating the effects of the Dnieper as a defensive barrier. Means Russia can certainly achieve much more militarily in a much shorter time, no one seems to know how many Russians are stationed in Belarus either as of present or in a few weeks as they don’t seem to be included in the total Russian troop count on Ukraine border.
@Andy I suggest watching the latest video by Caspianreport TH-cam channel, it’s highly informative about the prospects of war and Belarus’ potential involvement.
@Andy No, Belarus is actually quite likely to support Russia. The states it borders Poland, Latvia and Lithuania do not have the forces to occupy it with Russian troops stationed there nor would they dare start a war with a Russian ally. The worst they would get is more sanctions.
Everybody giving him a hard time for getting things wrong, but these matters are extremely hard to predict, just because you may have also predicted something correctly that this guy didn’t.. doesn’t make you a military battlefield mastermind, sit down
Finally, thank you. Even generals have a hard time when it comes to predict military conflicts, but apparently on TH-cam everybody is a military genius smh
I don't see anyone giving binkov hard time. It's rather fascinating to observe the divergence as in most cases it just proves how insane some of the war developments have been
So much for the Russian intelligence edge and air superiority... also, you forgot to take the Ukranian tractor fleet into account.
2 ปีที่แล้ว +28
you'd need lots of people taking lsd for a long time to predicate the tractor fleet :D in fact the analysis is quite solid. often the map of russian progress corresponds to today's reality. and yeah: nobody expected such poor performance of the russian army and its command
@ Yeah, I think you're right. Who would have guessed that Russia under Putin would do so poorly at intelligence and operational security - and Binkov does have another video criticizing the Russian air force.
I gave up on this guy when he covered what would happen in a U.S. v China war. He had the U.S. attempting a ground invasion and occupation of China. No competent strategist would even consider that. He also seems to put way to much emphasis on sheer numbers.
@@commonsense5494 Ha ha, you fool! You fell victim to one of the classic blunders! The most famous of which is "never get involved in a land war in Asia," but only slightly less well-known is this: "Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line.
I just saw a while ago that Russia is collecting Javelins and Stingers from Ukraine bases, it goes both ways, Russia supplies Ukraine with weapons and NATO supplies Russia with weapons.
Guys, this video was before any major buildup of Russian forces in Belarus, stop getting mad about it being "inaccurate" when it was a good prediction based on the information at the time.
The main things Binkov didn't predict were: 1. The Russians northern axis from Belarus attacking Kiev. 2. The donation and effectiveness of NLAW ATGMs. 3. The outrunning and ambushing of Russian logistics columns. 4. Russia not utilizing it's mentioned advanced, modern and well trained forces over the second line equipment and conscripts they've been sending.
1. The effectiveness of initial strike on eliminating Ukrainian airforce. One single bomb on an airstrip in a video I saw took out 6 migs. 2. How quickly such a small force would subdue millions of residents in the most densely populated eastern side of the country. 3. How Ukrainians would park equipment at schools, residential blocks and other public buildings in populated areas despite the pleading of locals to move them elsewhere to protect the children and families hiding in nearby basements and homes. 4. How many weapons the Chechens would capture undefended. 5. How accurate air strikes and artillery can be to continually take out Ukrainian military trucks and armor on busy highways with no/minimal collateral damage. 6. The speed at which Russian flags would be raised in cities with a new video coming out every few hours of flag raising in a new city. 7. The one sided nature of the reporting (should be expected really) that makes people think that Ukraine is doing well despite continual and steady gains over 3 days resulting in 1/4 of Ukraine already being occupied, an enormous swath of land larger than most European nations. 8. People thinking that wars only last a week and if it's not all over in a week then something went majorly wrong 😂
@@Mygg_Jeager by the way I have shared the telegram channel twice already where you can see the evidence that you are completely wrong. Not that you will put in the 2 seconds of effort to see the truth.
You did a pretty good job predicting what happened in retrospect. The only thing you really missed is how bad Russian logistics was, and how absent their air force would be, and of course almost everyone missed that prediction.
@@byloyuripka9624 These things arent mutually exclusive. We're only spending 5% of our annual defense budget to demilitarize one of our biggest security threats.
well that point still baffles military analysts. We know Russia sucks at training their pilots, but they still have somewhat modern planes in great numbers and supporting artillery (to take out anti-air sites). Looks like Russia was taken completely by surprise that they lost access to GPS, which eliminated their artillery- and missile accuracy. As a result, Ukraine anti-air sites are still standing and Russian can't send high-altitude planes into the warzones. At least that seems like the most prevalent explanation.
@@InTaco7 I also read somewhere that Russian military air doctrine doesn't really perform missions to destroy SAM sights like the U.S. does, for example the Wild Weasel Squadron. That with the Russian pilots apparently having very few flight hours and the shear difficultly in spotting and evading MANPADS makes it very hard to win air superiority. Not to say the their fleet isn't respectable I think that it is but many factor contribute to them not achieving the results they wanted. And without air cover tanks are just easy picking for drones, javelins, etc.
I hate to be boring but a 'Hot War' between any major superpowers can not happen due to the M.A.D doctrine. The only way it can possibly happen is if Hypersonic Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles can be shot down meaning a nuclear attack is unable to occur from both sides or by one side.
@@ChocManus That's a bit naive. Two nuclear powers could ofc have a conventional war, they just couldn't have a WW2 style unconditional surrender because noone with a big red button would take that.
I must credit you for leaving this video up, maybe people try to shy away from previous predictions once reality happens. This was a high quality and well researched video, with the only serious miscalculations being those which were made by everyone. Well done.
This turns out to be extremely well put analysis. Spot on. The displayed strenghts and weakneses of both sides are recurring since day 1. Some of you guys ignore that these simulations are made on certain assumptions, such us equal morale or limits on international involvement. They also never assume that mistakes shall be made - which is totally not the case with the actual russian invasion. Well done, Binkov. One of your most accurate one yet.
Pretty accurate despite the lack of Belarus in play and the current outstanding resistance from the Ukrainians. The predictions about worldwide sanctions, removal from the SWIFT system, foreign lethal armaments support, are all spot on. I also believe that he hit the nail on the head when he states that China will supplement most of the economic loss sustained by Russia from the global sanctions. We'll have to wait and see. Keep up the fight Ukraine.
The catch is that China and Russia are not really all that friendly allies. Favors given by China aren't free... and China does claim a good chunk of East Russia. I think how much support China gives depends on how much Russia is willing to part with.
This is a nice time capsule: "Russian side is much better equipped, with heavy mordern armaments and knows how to use them" and then they rushed them int Kyiv without a care for infantry support and their supply lines lmao. This is not an attack on you, Binkov, it just shows that the whole world had no idea how dysfunctional russia actually was/is.
Yea, Russia is strange country. Not so weak as many think, but also not so powerhouse as most think. In the end Russia fall to it's inability in fight in modern conflict (which should not suprise, consider how they well in Checenya two times and in Syria throw rockets at everything). Add gigantic corruption (same for Ukraine but much larger) and gigantic help from world to Ukraine and you get the result. Binkow made a scenario with information he had.
Man, I literally was thinking when will the Comrade address the current affairs in Ukraine. Not only that, there were 2 views when I clicked. Couldn't be more up to date.
Im being to suspect that Comrade is a high ranking military officer specializing in the strategy analysis department. His videos are always spot on 😁😁😁
Opinion of a citizen of Ukraine. 🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukraine must be and will be divided. And it was decided not by Russia, but by the United States. National Security Adviser to the 39th U.S. President Jimmy Carter (1977-1981), Zbigniew Brzezinski, wrote in his 1997 book The Grand Chessboard that the West must wrest Ukraine from the orbit of Russian influence, if not completely, then at least its western part. He understood that the south and east of Ukraine were inhabited by Russian people. In 2014, the West managed to take control of Ukraine, losing only Crimea and part of the Donbass. But the last 8 years have shown that the West is not able to swallow the whole torn off piece. Therefore, they will be forced to withdraw from the east and south of Ukraine, leaving it to Russia. The Russian people are the most divided people in the world. Due to the fact that the Bolsheviks did not neatly divide the territory of the Russian Empire into Soviet republics, after the collapse of the USSR, millions of Russians found themselves outside their fatherland. In 1989 the German people were united. The Russian people also deserve to be reunited. 🇺🇦You should know that the West supports the unpopular, non-democratic, anti-people, oligarchic authorities in Ukraine, which uses the Nazis to intimidate the citizens of Ukraine, and the war in Donbass to justify economic failures! The Ukrainian authorities talk about the occupation of Donbass by Russia only for the Western public , but here they openly say that it is impossible to return the Donbass. Because after the return of millions of pro-Russian citizens to the electoral field of Ukraine, they will immediately lose power.🇺🇦 🇷🇺Respectfully, a resident of Russian Kharkov.🇷🇺
@@chsgrate5362 It's not a lie, it's the truth. God knows it. I was born in Kharkov and have lived here all my life. I am not going to leave anywhere, and I did not have any other citizenship except the citizenship of Ukraine.
My great grandfather used to tell me about the great wars (WWI & WWII). He fought in both. He described it as not a war between nations but between circles of interests. They managed ro influence the sheep through propaganda and the intelligent portion of the population by threats and blackmailing. He fought alongside the Germans as a Hungarian. When he was taken captive by the Soviets, it were actually Soviets who helped his brigade escape. Throughout his long flight back gome he had dozens of Soviet families hiding them and helping him get back to his family. He also had nazis giving him food and clothes. Even though they should have shot him on sight for desertion. War is a complex thing with no clear lines drawn between sides and definitely told in a way that serves the purposes of very tight circles. I personally have good friends in all the "opposing" countries. Good people who would never would like to hear of war. People are not idiots, those hungry for power are.
@@zlo333 yeah, people have been like rhat for millenia. :( I am truly afraid. I have nwver experienced a war but all the previous generations in my family have lived through one and most even fought in them in e past 200 years. Terrible-terrible times.
@@the_real_lajos_toth i agree with u completly, war destroys people mentaly as well, ptsd for example and it is young people, and they are on the wining side, my granfathets fought in 2nd world war at least they knew what they were fighting for
In Islam empire the one who escaped from frighting for Islam will not be killed if the Islam soldier capture any the infidel troopers they will be treated with food and drink in jail and they have to teach the children how to write and read that was during prophet Muhammad era during ottoman I think they still do the same or maybe kill them
You nailed everything on the head two whole months ago! You even accurately described China's quandary, and the sanctions, and Swift cut-off... You earned yourself a follow for your accuracy!
China & Russia are so closely linked at this point that I'm surprised Chinese troops haven't shown up in Ukraine.*sarcasm* It DOES appear however that Xi has become slightly more hesitant about trying to do a "lightning seizure" of Taiwan.
Let's not forget, Finland and Sweden would join NATO the next day after the invasion as they said, and NATO would make the decision to incorporate them over night as they said.
@@lexingtonbrython1897 This is one video that explains it very well, but you can find more info on the internet if you search. Including the declaration from NATO that they will make the decision over night for their inclusion. th-cam.com/video/SWcJkVyJqIc/w-d-xo.html&ab_channel=CaspianReport
@@VolodyaMuchavsky That will only happen in Nuculair war, Blow this planet out the space for ever. its a sick planet build on war war war oil, dollars for ricth elites soros schawab, rockkefellers echt sic poepole, and a Sick Media virus is the propaganda cancer in this world.
Funny seeing all the people arguing here over the accuracy of these predictions. It's not very easy to literally predict the future, so don't be too harsh on a TH-camr failing to get everything correct a whole month in advance (maybe more depending on when the script was written). In actual war, it's bad to be too predictable, so of course there are going to be mistakes in a video like this.
Honestly, I'm amazed how spot on you were, just the fact how poorly equipped the Russians were and how fast the sanctions from the EU were instated was completely unexpected for everyone. And could not possibly have predicted that aspect
Accurate and credible as usual. Curious how 2 months ago the analysis looked pessimistic for the russians, and the credit given to infantry ukrainian forces quite too much... Now, in early april, after 30 days of clash, it looks like that despite the (not considered) help of Belarus and the concentrated effort against Kiev to topple Zelensky, the situation is so much worse for Putin, than expected. 1) territorial gain is much less than it was supposed to be. 2) air superiority was never really there 3) all major cities resisted, even Mariupol that, for its position, is basically untenable. And yet, despite surrounded, it still did not fall in russian hands. 4) Zelensky still in power, and now a star in the media. All pessimistic points happened. 1) sanctions 2) internal russian dissent 3) huge losses in manpower and equipment 4) invasion bogged down AND EVEN on the backfoot, with ukrainians on the counterattack, getting back territory, even striking in russian territory, moral of russian troops reportedly catastrophic. Probably an update is due by now...
I’m watching this 10 days into the Russian invasion and his predictions are very accurate. Update 51 days now and he’s almost perfect with his predictions. Impressive.
In particular, it must be taken into account that this prediction was made at a time when everyone else was saying "3 days and Kiev will be Russian". At the time, this was an incredibly "optimistic" to "idealistic" view that went against all military experts, intelligence agencies, etc.
This is basically what every intelligence agency predicted as well. We wayyyy over estimated Russia’s military competence and capabilities. This should have been over in a week.
I just pictured a small section of the video saying "Ukrainians could start using their overwhelming farming equipment capabilities to tow away Russian tanks"
So far, Binkov has been right. The main fighting will probably be over in a month. But sanction, alliance with China, and a second Cold War, is spot on.
Though Russia seems to have done somewhat worse than predicted here. At least not that many Ukrainian troops seem to have been isolated into pockets and dealt with in piecemeal.
@@overclock1993 It's only one area. The graphics in this video seemed to indicate Ukrainian troops in the east getting isolated into many pockets. (Another factor not predicted in this video is Kyiv getting approached from Belarus on the western side of the Dnieper.)
@@christopheralejandromezapa8934 It takes weeks to besiege and take over cities. They have cut off multiple big ones at this point, Mariupol being the main one.
StarCraft taught that zerg rushing was effective. It did not teach those units needed to eat every 5 minutes and that the units bringing them food were extremely vulnerable.
You’re right. I’m not sure what they’re actually trying to accomplish. But in general they should have started by removing all the air defenses, followed by a couple of weeks of bombardment and bombings, and then the armored troops should have been sent in. They just sent out a bunch of tanks that are getting taken out left and right.
Wow here we are more than two months later and binkov's prediction was really accurate. I am impressed at how it turned out to be exactly as he foresaw...
@CR Hill i might partly agree with you. But sometimes i wonder things have gone too far for russia. Even if russia wins what would russia do with a ukraine sunk in anger and anti russia feelings? Economically speaking how would russia carry the burden of its actions and its reputation around the world? I think that a victory would be even worse to russia than an agreement with ukraine. Because in case of agreement russia would get rid of a big problem (ukraine itself)...
What a tough video binkov has had to make, he has done a miracle and come across pretty neutral and informative, and indeed you can hear in his voice just how horrible all this is
If so much of the EU hadn't shut down their nuclear power plants after the Hokkaido earthquake and tsunami, Russia would have a lot less energy leverage over them...
@@BobuxGuy eco friendly? eco friendly?! what the hell do you mean "eco friendly"? Nuclear power isn't eco friendly at all. Have you seen Chernobyl? They need to dedicate so much space to storing spent fuel and equipment and that area's uninhabitable for millennia.
No. Previously Binkov had made predictions about a probable war between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Karabakh region . The war really occurred but Binkov's predictions did not come true at all. In contrary, they have made much more accurate predictions this time.
Binkov gets it more or less spot-on about the economic consequences of the conflict and how the West would respond. The main fault with the video is that he overestimated Russian military efficiency...but then nearly everybody did. But this mistaken view was nothing like the blunder made by Putin and his high command in their underestimation of the Ukrainians.
Ukraine was well prepared for a Russian invasion. But yet, Russia could have succeeded to take Kiev in the early days of war. Maybe Ukraine just survived because Elon Musk let them use skylink!!
For being speculative, this is really accurate. Lot of people saying this didn't age well, but so much of it has come to fruition? No one counted on the Russians performing so poorly, or Belarusia's compliance in the invasion. I don't follow this channel, but yer man called the poor performance of the Russian airforce in a video older than this.
It's fascinating to rewatch this now and see what Binkov got right and wrong. The assumptions were in line with most experts thought, but wars are notoriously hard to predict. It's really sad that two big countries will suffer for years to come because of on man's ego.
This situation is much more complicated than most videos ever get into. It is a protracted tragedy that has many nuances. I've followed it for 8 years and my heart bleeds for those who live there. I wish there was more I could do.
Now that we do have a war in Ukraine, it interesting which parts of this video proved correct and which did not. The speed of the Russian advances and their ability to take Kyiv for instance, proved to be inaccurate. The rest of it though, was spot on. The gentlemen behind Binkov should be recognized for the overall accuracy of what amounts to an intelligence estimate.
Watching it two months later gives me chills. So many correct predictions and this is way before all of this started. Congratulations on the great analysis.
Binkov forgot to consider that Putin would be sending troops from Belarus to Kyiv, which is a much shorter journey than coming from the East from Russian territory. So instead of taking weeks to get to Kyiv, Russian forces right now are just 20 km from Kyiv and encircling the city.... *ONE DAY* after the invasion began.
@@leviticus2001 well, you know, after Kazakhstan events I think everyone can concider any ally of Russia as an area where plenty of troops and armor can simply appear within hours. Well, just like any major NATO force, except that they don't have to cross half the globe.
@@fuck4317 Alright the situation here is more complex than you imply. Those are forward units they're not the main army. The RUS army is getting beaten down by UKR. The Russians haven't capture any of their day one goals. UKR is holding strong
I disagree with people saying he is very wrong. This is the most educated guess one could have. The only reason he did not get it 100% right, is he did not know how much the west would support ukraine, and how low the russian moral would be. (In comparison to ukrainian forces.) It was also impossible to know russian has not put it's new tech into full production and that soldiers would still use ex-soviet gear.
I don't understand why people are saying that this video vastly overestimates Russian performance. By his own words, conquering the East half of Ukraine would take months -- perhaps until the winter. It's been less than one month since Russia's invasion began! Look at the map: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine
Right, but from the looks of things Russia isn't going to achieve that. They don't have the manpower, even if they bring in reinforcements. Could even see some catastrophic defeats on some of their axis.
It's probably because in the video the surprise attack worked much better than it did. I presume the lack of logistics took everyone by surprise, Russians included.
@@tigoes I've hardly seen any media claiming that Ukraine is winning. Sure, many of them are very optimistic about Ukraine's chances at holding Russia back, but it's quite unquestionable that Russia is taking massive losses right now. Progressing, but at what cost? If they can't get their allies and puppets to bail them out, the attack is going to stagnate entirely and possibly collapse.
@@tigoes "Progressing" What is progress on the ground, why does that necessarily indicate they are going to win. These two things are not the same. Plus progressing could just extend their logistics, which are bad as is, making them hard to defend and thus leaving the Russian combat arms exposed at the front to a counter attack... You know like we are seeing in Mykolaiv and NE and NW of Kyiv.
To be fair, this is a very well aged video. Lots of the predictions proved to be accurate. One of the missing pieces in the video is that as Ukraine is still in its "mud season" in March, the Russian military has had to stick to the roads.
Strange, everyone saying he is wrong in his prediction seemed not to listen well to his timeline. He is talking about weeks to months of war before Russia would capture Ukraine. Other things he got wrong, but the timeline seems about right, as well as the casualty numbers. Russia having perhaps tens of thousands of casualties over the course of the war. He also accurately predicted US and NATO sanctions, even if he predicted a longer lag time for them. Certainly, it seems to have been a much more fair fight than expected, but if Russia is planning on a timeline of months and massive casualties, then, this actually scans pretty well with what we're seeing, at least in terms of those measurables.
Even if they do defeat ukraine this has been a complete disaster for Russia and has shown their military to be alot weaker than we thought. There is no way anyone can look at this unbiased and say this war went great for Russia
@Naikomi I don't think you understand how incompetent Ukrainian armed forces are conducting this war. Russia crossed the Dnieper without taking a single shot. That is the only geographical barrier (excl Pripyat marshes, which can be avoided) that Ukraine has defending it. Helicopters are in Kiev, Kharkiv is being attacked, Russian Tanks are invading Ukraine from every angle with minimal resistance. Troops are literally deserting (an entire tank column was left abandoned by Ukraine near Crimea). The idea that Ukraine will resist like Afghanistan is laughable, Islam does not exist as motivation and most people are not willing to risk their lives to resist occupation. See Chechnya as an example of how Russia deals with partisans (ones that are motivated by islam, Ukraine will be easy in comparison). It will be bloody, but Russia has blood to spare, Ukraine does not (even with 45 million people, demographically the country is in a dire situation).
To be fair Russia is advancing rather quickly and has already captured the airport. The faster Russia advances the faster Ukraine surrenders and the faster all the other countries can stop pretending to care. Therefore less casualties. Win win.
The Russians were on their way to prosperity and global respect. Their standard of living was starting to rise after centuries of hardships. And then they did this. I think the word stupid is the only way to describe it.
@@iwillnoteatzebugs when is the last time someone in Europe thought that to invade Russia is a boon. The entire iron courtain just want to not have any thing with the corpse of URSSR, pace time is profitabile, war is only for the big dogs.
@@iwillnoteatzebugs First of all, I'm not your buddy. They traded their prosperity for security? That has to be the dumbest post I've read this year. Prosperity is security. Look at China. Look at the Chinese. The people are living well and their army is ten times more advanced than Russia's. An achievement that Russia will never reach for the next hundred years. Secondly, I know exactly what I'm talking about. I was the travel adviser for an engineering firm that helped rebuild the former Soviet Union in the early nineties. Our engineers lived like kings while they were there. They could have beautiful Russian women for just $10 a day. That was sad to see. But it looks like that reality is coming back again.
idk, neighbours positioning to joining a military alliance existing AGAINST russia is a valid enough reason to feel threatened. Is it enough to attack? No, but is the option taken understandable out of desperation? Yes.
Binkov, don't forget that there's a large amount of Russian troops now in Belarus on 'exercises', and that the Belarusian/Ukrainian border isn't as well fortified as the Donbas frontlines, and it's a much shorter distance to Kyiv.
Take a few satellite photos of Russian tanks, announce that Russia is invading and here we go. Half the world now believes that Russia is going to invade its neighbours. And even if they don't attack (which they wouldn't) it will be seen as the invasion was cancelled all thanks to our hero NATO. A win win propaganda. Currently the biggest weapon of the West. Very clever and effective.
@@natureblank1401 Did I say that? I just stated that they're there, and that they're doing 'exercises' near the border. I'm sure you can take from that whatever you want. Give my regards to Moscow.
Yes because they are hiding in houses behind civilians. Propaganda bot get ready, Mariupol is almost fully captured so is Donbas region and they will surround Karkhiv. They don't want Kiev no, they want all the black sea region and if you see the news that goes as planned. Also the ones fighting in the ground is not the actual Russian army but Russian speakers of Ukraine the Russian army is fighting in the air, ALSO Ukraine army has lost all its air-force and navy to the Russians, and their only hope is hiding in buildings.
@@josephstalin331 Stop Lying Comrade Stalin. Remember when you said this???My Georgian friend. "I want to tell you what, from the Russian point of view, the president and the United States have done for victory in this war," Stalin said. "The most important things in this war are the machines.... The United States is a country of machines. Without the machines we received through Lend-Lease, we would have lost the war." -Joseph Stalin Nikita Khrushchev shared the similar opinion in his memoirs: "If the United States had not helped us, we would not have won the war, One-on-one against Hitler's Germany, we would not have withstood its onslaught and would have lost the war. No one talks about this officially, and Stalin never, I think, left any written traces of his opinion, but I can say that he expressed this view several times in conversations with me."
Binkov's knowledge is finally being put to the test.
wanna bet 10 bucks on it?? ill give you my paypal 😂
@@billsima6983 What’s the options? Over/under?
I'm watching this to see how accurate this video is.
@@drsev61 eyyyyy me too :D
Binkov videos are never going to be fully accurate because of how they purposefully ignore 3rd parties to the conflicts. Stuff like global sanctions and invading through Belarus aren't accounted for.
There's no need to criticize Binkov for neglecting the Belarus axis of invasion. He made the video before the Russian forces entered Belarus on the pretext of maneuvers. The key points Binkov made are that Russia will get what it wants quickly and any Russian suffering will be felt only in the very long term.
7:56
Since it seems everyone thought Putin could be bluffing and with Europe as hesitant as it is, it seems he felt an all or nothing approach was worth it
A video about a Russia determined and ready to devote the necessary resources to take as much as it can might as well be only a few seconds
Russia dominates, no contest
I'd argue Putin wants the entire Ukraine and he won't get that quickly as already said in the video
@@joseSanchez-ej2oh Russia dominates in the graveyards, and nowhere else lol.
@@GespenstDesKommunismus _"I'd argue Putin wants the entire Ukraine"_
Given the sizes of the Russian invading forces and the directions in which they've advanced, I don't think Putini ever planned to _forcibly_ occupy the whole country.
Instead, his *military* objective was to occupy the southern coast, taking control of the ports and access to the Black Sea, thereby making a land bridge connecting Crimea and the Donbas.
He's successfully achieved his military objective.
His *political* objective was to overthrow the government in Kyiv, in the hope that this would end Ukrainian resistance.
Kyiv still hasn't fallen and Ukrainians continue to resist, so he's failed to achieve his political objective, as yet.
@@GonzoTehGreat Not quite, he planned to quickly take Kiev to insert a new gouvernment by force and then put the entire Ukraine under the control of his puppet gouvernment using the military. That's essentially an occupation of the whole country
A guy on TH-cam narrating his videos with a literal hand puppet put everyone else's predictions to shame. I love it!
Sadly history repeats itself his analysis was excellent and detailed but I'm an idiot and a lot of this seemed obvious to me before the war however I'm glad I was wrong overall I said Ukraine isn't Chechnya or Georgia it can put up a hell of a fight and give the russian army a bloody nose but Russia will quickly destroy most of there combat units and destroy most of the countrys CCC in a week lol
One mistake was made here, assumption that Russian military is actually modern and not stuck in Soviet era.
Ukraine's air defenses were also better than "obsolete."
Your russian modern weapon plus hungry russian soldier and limited gas. Like how the fuck it would last?
Yes
Soviet weapons? At least those weapons were new in Soviet times. Now be they are supporting defective Chinese tires.
The Russian armed forces are large and modern.
But the modern part ain't large.
And the large part ain't modern.
What wasn't mentioned is that a Russian invasion of Ukraine might also result in both Finland and Sweden joining NATO and a massive increase in the number of troops stationed near Russia to block any possible invasion of a NATO country. Remember, Russia's two demands were: (1) NATO not adding any new members, specifically mentioning Ukraine, Georgia, Sweden and Finland, and (2) removal of all NATO forces from the previous Warsaw Pact nations. An invasion of Ukraine would result in the opposite results on these two points, it would cost thousands of Russian troop lives and the Russian economy would be negatively impacted. It would force Russia to rely more on China, which is the equivalent of putting most or all of their eggs in one basket, especially if China ends up in a war with the US and allies, which would certainly affect trade between China and Russia.
>Ukraine might also result in both Finland and Sweden joining NATO/
Or it would result in the states bordering Russia to balance Russian interests with NATO. Thus resetting the European balance of power.
>and a massive increase in the number of troops stationed near Russia to block any possible invasion of a NATO country.
So cancel America's pivot to Asia? Considering China's maritime trajectory that isn't happening.
> it would cost thousands of Russian troop lives.
Remains to be seen, we could also see tens of thousands of Ukrainians surrender in the first week. But i don't have a crystal ball.....
@E Cognitio Balancing Russian interests? Russia isn't the only country in the region, most countries that exist in Europe exist because they value their sovereignty, not because they want to cater to the whims of Russians. That why they join NATO, to protect their interests, instead of that of Russia.
@@onlyplaysveigar7241 That wasn't true during the cold war, research "Finlandization" in which the country chose to stay neutral in the confrontation.
Why would sweden join NATO? I understand Finland joining even if that is also not likely at all as Russia has no intention of expanding into Finland and bordering Sweden. Sweden is a relatively strong country, Russia wouldnt gain anything from threatning Sweden, plus they dont even border Russia.
@E Cognitio I know about Finlandization but it has no relevance to contemporary politics, since Russia is acting unilaterally.
I think Binkov's analysis is 75% accurate in light of recent events. What he missed out (what we now know) is a) The use of Belarus as a staging post for an axis of advance towards Kyiv, b) the ability of the Ukrainians to communicate with and thereby co-ordinate their forces to resist the Russians. Please remember he is giving the most likely scenario based upon the disposition of forces and the political situation as of the 26th of January 2022.
75% ain't bad at all.
Your not wrong. It's just how maybe 🤔 right you are.
Well. Now they retreat from Kyiv.
In war unexpected things happens, not everything would follow the plan.
A lot of people commenting that this aged poorly.
Firstly, nobody expected Ukraine to perform as well as it did. Not the West, not Ukraine and certainly not the Russians. Besides that this video was pretty accurate and even when it was not, it still addressed the key aspects of the war as we now know them to exist. With hindsight, had you watched this video right before the invasion took place, you would have been pretty grounded in terms of what to expect from the military and international response.
Certainly a better analysis than "Russia has more tanks and jets so will blitzkrieg to Lviv" which was going around beforehand.
It has aged exactly.
Because they failed in history class
This is truth
Did Ukraine exceed expectations or did the Russians simply fail to meet theirs? Might be both. So wouldn't praise or blame anyone yet.
dunno man the wars not ended, and the recent ukraine counter offensive failed
You got the basics down perfectly... and then it all went pear-shaped for Russia. Too many attack vectors, horrible logistics, the Rasputitsa, decrepit mechanized infantry... unified Ukraine, unified EU, munitions flooding into Ukraine immediately... oh boy.
Binkov - “mostly likely won’t attack”
Putin - “hold my beer”
This didnt age well…
To be fair who tf thought he was going to attack
@@theinfinity2988 the writing was on the wall bruh
Putin was most likely trying to bluff the NATO into giving concessions. That failed and now they're invading to most likely to save face - Just a prediction
@@Link9058 says who
Not even the people of ukraine thought he was going to attack
You didn't account for Germany sending 5,000 helmets to Ukraine.
THIS. CHANGES. EVERYTHING.
Lol I see what you did there
Go forward, America and Ukraine! Long live the Nato and its allies! Long live freedom! Down with all dictatorships and terrorists all around the world! Best wishes from Germany!
Not our war, keep crying
@@frankmueller6522 Pls don't say that, America has enough influence on the world. They are massive bullies who just abuse power where they see fit. Look at the atrocities in Isreal and Palestine, Israel forcefully taking land and attacking and bombing civilians? And America supports those actions and turns a blind eye towards it, then calls Palestine aggressors if they fight for defending their own land?
Amazing sarcasm 🤣🤣
You did not mention that use of Belarus territory is possible, destroying ukranian north flang and opening rout to full annexation
Maybe not full annexation but certainly negating the effects of the Dnieper as a defensive barrier. Means Russia can certainly achieve much more militarily in a much shorter time, no one seems to know how many Russians are stationed in Belarus either as of present or in a few weeks as they don’t seem to be included in the total Russian troop count on Ukraine border.
Damn right!
God bless President Lukashenko. May God give many more Prosperous Years! Da!
@Andy I suggest watching the latest video by Caspianreport TH-cam channel, it’s highly informative about the prospects of war and Belarus’ potential involvement.
@Andy No, Belarus is actually quite likely to support Russia. The states it borders Poland, Latvia and Lithuania do not have the forces to occupy it with Russian troops stationed there nor would they dare start a war with a Russian ally. The worst they would get is more sanctions.
Okay. I am impressed. Not perfect, but better predictions than any “news” organizations. Excellent work.
Everybody giving him a hard time for getting things wrong, but these matters are extremely hard to predict, just because you may have also predicted something correctly that this guy didn’t.. doesn’t make you a military battlefield mastermind, sit down
Finally, thank you. Even generals have a hard time when it comes to predict military conflicts, but apparently on TH-cam everybody is a military genius smh
I mean it is evident that the Russian generals did get their initial plan wrong as well so....
@Xaer Hanler this video was made before the Russian troops entered Belarus, so it wasn't so easy to predict their involvement.
😂😂😂WTA?
I don't see anyone giving binkov hard time. It's rather fascinating to observe the divergence as in most cases it just proves how insane some of the war developments have been
So much for the Russian intelligence edge and air superiority... also, you forgot to take the Ukranian tractor fleet into account.
you'd need lots of people taking lsd for a long time to predicate the tractor fleet :D in fact the analysis is quite solid. often the map of russian progress corresponds to today's reality. and yeah: nobody expected such poor performance of the russian army and its command
@ Yeah, I think you're right. Who would have guessed that Russia under Putin would do so poorly at intelligence and operational security - and Binkov does have another video criticizing the Russian air force.
Tractors are the apex predator on the battlefield.
What do those farmers do w those tanks once they have towed them home? Did the Russians install lowjack on them?
@@paulbabcock2428
Sell em on eBay :)
"the Russia is way more well equiped and knows how to use that equipment"
💀💀💀
I was about to say that statement aged like milk.
I gave up on this guy when he covered what would happen in a U.S. v China war. He had the U.S. attempting a ground invasion and occupation of China. No competent strategist would even consider that. He also seems to put way to much emphasis on sheer numbers.
@@commonsense5494 Ha ha, you fool! You fell victim to one of the classic blunders! The most famous of which is "never get involved in a land war in Asia," but only slightly less well-known is this: "Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line.
1/5 of Ukraine territory under Russian control, Ukrainian navy crippled, nearly all fuel supply destroyed, crippled Ukrainian air force.
@@revolter7094 you watch too much propaganda
One thing that Blinkov couldn't know is that the Russian army would become a major source of equipment for Ukraine.
Ukraine and NATO are suppliers of pro-Russian forces too. And it is debatalbe wo gets more
I just saw a while ago that Russia is collecting Javelins and Stingers from Ukraine bases, it goes both ways, Russia supplies Ukraine with weapons and NATO supplies Russia with weapons.
@@budgetproductions1178 Yep, and the Ukrainians won't be volunteering that information.
@@budgetproductions1178 Most NATO supplies will end up with Ukrainians, those depots were likely captured in the first few days around Kherson.
Guys, this video was before any major buildup of Russian forces in Belarus, stop getting mad about it being "inaccurate" when it was a good prediction based on the information at the time.
The main things Binkov didn't predict were: 1. The Russians northern axis from Belarus attacking Kiev. 2. The donation and effectiveness of NLAW ATGMs. 3. The outrunning and ambushing of Russian logistics columns. 4. Russia not utilizing it's mentioned advanced, modern and well trained forces over the second line equipment and conscripts they've been sending.
1. The effectiveness of initial strike on eliminating Ukrainian airforce. One single bomb on an airstrip in a video I saw took out 6 migs.
2. How quickly such a small force would subdue millions of residents in the most densely populated eastern side of the country.
3. How Ukrainians would park equipment at schools, residential blocks and other public buildings in populated areas despite the pleading of locals to move them elsewhere to protect the children and families hiding in nearby basements and homes.
4. How many weapons the Chechens would capture undefended.
5. How accurate air strikes and artillery can be to continually take out Ukrainian military trucks and armor on busy highways with no/minimal collateral damage.
6. The speed at which Russian flags would be raised in cities with a new video coming out every few hours of flag raising in a new city.
7. The one sided nature of the reporting (should be expected really) that makes people think that Ukraine is doing well despite continual and steady gains over 3 days resulting in 1/4 of Ukraine already being occupied, an enormous swath of land larger than most European nations.
8. People thinking that wars only last a week and if it's not all over in a week then something went majorly wrong 😂
@@chomes8048 Whatever pitiful sum Putin's paying you to spew that drivel, he's not getting his money's worth.
@@brucetucker4847 True, nobody is buying that nonsense.
@@chomes8048 Silence, bot. Russia is targeting civilians, Ukrainian forces are not hiding among civilians.
@@Mygg_Jeager by the way I have shared the telegram channel twice already where you can see the evidence that you are completely wrong. Not that you will put in the 2 seconds of effort to see the truth.
You did a pretty good job predicting what happened in retrospect. The only thing you really missed is how bad Russian logistics was, and how absent their air force would be, and of course almost everyone missed that prediction.
you forgot the incompetence of the Russian officer corp
Also Russia got a lot less territory in reality
It’s because it’s not true
Russians did not expect organized resistance, and thus didn’t plan like a real war
@@schakiarligonde1736 they took 25% of the country in one week (excluding Crimea and 2014 occupied territories)
Now it’s only like 17% after Ukraine retook Kherson and kharkiv
"a few hundred javelins wont make a difference"...
2 months later... "20 anti tank missiles for every tank in Russia"
*i like those odds*
who needs affordable healthcare or education anyways amiright fellas??
@@byloyuripka9624 Hard to get affordable healthcare and education when they bomb those places lol
@@byloyuripka9624 These things arent mutually exclusive. We're only spending 5% of our annual defense budget to demilitarize one of our biggest security threats.
News just in America runs out of javelins will take years to re stock!!!!
i knew WW3 wouldn’t start without a RAID SHADOW LEGEND sponsorship.
The part that got me was “Russia would enjoy air superiority” This makes me feel better for all my past mistakes
well that point still baffles military analysts. We know Russia sucks at training their pilots, but they still have somewhat modern planes in great numbers and supporting artillery (to take out anti-air sites). Looks like Russia was taken completely by surprise that they lost access to GPS, which eliminated their artillery- and missile accuracy. As a result, Ukraine anti-air sites are still standing and Russian can't send high-altitude planes into the warzones. At least that seems like the most prevalent explanation.
@@InTaco7 I also read somewhere that Russian military air doctrine doesn't really perform missions to destroy SAM sights like the U.S. does, for example the Wild Weasel Squadron. That with the Russian pilots apparently having very few flight hours and the shear difficultly in spotting and evading MANPADS makes it very hard to win air superiority. Not to say the their fleet isn't respectable I think that it is but many factor contribute to them not achieving the results they wanted. And without air cover tanks are just easy picking for drones, javelins, etc.
They pretty much own the air ways. They don't have air supremacy but they certainly dominate.
@@beardedaus1051 any reason they decided not to take out all the anti air?
This seems like potentially the most pointless conflict yet. If this causes WW3 I'll be pissed 😅
I hate to be boring but a 'Hot War' between any major superpowers can not happen due to the M.A.D doctrine.
The only way it can possibly happen is if Hypersonic Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles can be shot down meaning a nuclear attack is unable to occur from both sides or by one side.
@@ChocManus That's a bit naive. Two nuclear powers could ofc have a conventional war, they just couldn't have a WW2 style unconditional surrender because noone with a big red button would take that.
@@towakin7718 I’d be starting a war that can only end one way
@@offdeck8588 If you'd start a war that can only end one way it's a good thing you've got nothing to say!
WWI was started by a political assassination. You never know.
I must credit you for leaving this video up, maybe people try to shy away from previous predictions once reality happens. This was a high quality and well researched video, with the only serious miscalculations being those which were made by everyone. Well done.
This turns out to be extremely well put analysis. Spot on. The displayed strenghts and weakneses of both sides are recurring since day 1.
Some of you guys ignore that these simulations are made on certain assumptions, such us equal morale or limits on international involvement. They also never assume that mistakes shall be made - which is totally not the case with the actual russian invasion.
Well done, Binkov. One of your most accurate one yet.
Pretty accurate despite the lack of Belarus in play and the current outstanding resistance from the Ukrainians. The predictions about worldwide sanctions, removal from the SWIFT system, foreign lethal armaments support, are all spot on. I also believe that he hit the nail on the head when he states that China will supplement most of the economic loss sustained by Russia from the global sanctions. We'll have to wait and see. Keep up the fight Ukraine.
The catch is that China and Russia are not really all that friendly allies. Favors given by China aren't free... and China does claim a good chunk of East Russia. I think how much support China gives depends on how much Russia is willing to part with.
We overestimated Russia, underestimated Ukraine and how fast the EU would react as a whole.
EU is nothing but a joke
@@DreadRising use your brain dude
This whole Invasion made the EU act as a single entity for once
@@DreadRising lol ok vatnik
@@DreadRising well, this aged well
This is a nice time capsule: "Russian side is much better equipped, with heavy mordern armaments and knows how to use them" and then they rushed them int Kyiv without a care for infantry support and their supply lines lmao.
This is not an attack on you, Binkov, it just shows that the whole world had no idea how dysfunctional russia actually was/is.
It's not disfunction or corruption. Russia thought it would be like Austra in 1930s and fold nonviolently
Yea, Russia is strange country. Not so weak as many think, but also not so powerhouse as most think. In the end Russia fall to it's inability in fight in modern conflict (which should not suprise, consider how they well in Checenya two times and in Syria throw rockets at everything). Add gigantic corruption (same for Ukraine but much larger) and gigantic help from world to Ukraine and you get the result.
Binkow made a scenario with information he had.
Who's watching in March to see how accurate this was?
Я смотрю
Sadly
Man, I literally was thinking when will the Comrade address the current affairs in Ukraine. Not only that, there were 2 views when I clicked. Couldn't be more up to date.
Indeed
Im being to suspect that Comrade is a high ranking military officer specializing in the strategy analysis department. His videos are always spot on 😁😁😁
Opinion of a citizen of Ukraine.
🇺🇦🇷🇺
Ukraine must be and will be divided. And it was decided not by Russia, but by the United States. National Security Adviser to the 39th U.S. President Jimmy Carter (1977-1981), Zbigniew Brzezinski, wrote in his 1997 book The Grand Chessboard that the West must wrest Ukraine from the orbit of Russian influence, if not completely, then at least its western part. He understood that the south and east of Ukraine were inhabited by Russian people. In 2014, the West managed to take control of Ukraine, losing only Crimea and part of the Donbass. But the last 8 years have shown that the West is not able to swallow the whole torn off piece. Therefore, they will be forced to withdraw from the east and south of Ukraine, leaving it to Russia.
The Russian people are the most divided people in the world. Due to the fact that the Bolsheviks did not neatly divide the territory of the Russian Empire into Soviet republics, after the collapse of the USSR, millions of Russians found themselves outside their fatherland. In 1989 the German people were united. The Russian people also deserve to be reunited.
🇺🇦You should know that the West supports the unpopular, non-democratic, anti-people, oligarchic authorities in Ukraine, which uses the Nazis to intimidate the citizens of Ukraine, and the war in Donbass to justify economic failures! The Ukrainian authorities talk about the occupation of Donbass by Russia only for the Western public , but here they openly say that it is impossible to return the Donbass. Because after the return of millions of pro-Russian citizens to the electoral field of Ukraine, they will immediately lose power.🇺🇦
🇷🇺Respectfully, a resident of Russian Kharkov.🇷🇺
@@ТриединаяРусь You are not a citizen of Ukraine,hush
@@chsgrate5362 It's not a lie, it's the truth. God knows it. I was born in Kharkov and have lived here all my life. I am not going to leave anywhere, and I did not have any other citizenship except the citizenship of Ukraine.
My great grandfather used to tell me about the great wars (WWI & WWII). He fought in both. He described it as not a war between nations but between circles of interests. They managed ro influence the sheep through propaganda and the intelligent portion of the population by threats and blackmailing. He fought alongside the Germans as a Hungarian. When he was taken captive by the Soviets, it were actually Soviets who helped his brigade escape. Throughout his long flight back gome he had dozens of Soviet families hiding them and helping him get back to his family. He also had nazis giving him food and clothes. Even though they should have shot him on sight for desertion. War is a complex thing with no clear lines drawn between sides and definitely told in a way that serves the purposes of very tight circles. I personally have good friends in all the "opposing" countries. Good people who would never would like to hear of war. People are not idiots, those hungry for power are.
Unfortunately not many people will listen to you
@@zlo333 yeah, people have been like rhat for millenia. :( I am truly afraid. I have nwver experienced a war but all the previous generations in my family have lived through one and most even fought in them in e past 200 years. Terrible-terrible times.
@@the_real_lajos_toth i agree with u completly, war destroys people mentaly as well, ptsd for example and it is young people, and they are on the wining side, my granfathets fought in 2nd world war at least they knew what they were fighting for
In Islam empire the one who escaped from frighting for Islam will not be killed if the Islam soldier capture any the infidel troopers they will be treated with food and drink in jail and they have to teach the children how to write and read that was during prophet Muhammad era during ottoman I think they still do the same or maybe kill them
You are right. But what can we do when the circles have one button mass destruction options?
You nailed everything on the head two whole months ago! You even accurately described China's quandary, and the sanctions, and Swift cut-off... You earned yourself a follow for your accuracy!
China & Russia are so closely linked at this point that I'm surprised Chinese troops haven't shown up in Ukraine.*sarcasm* It DOES appear however that Xi has become slightly more hesitant about trying to do a "lightning seizure" of Taiwan.
Let's not forget, Finland and Sweden would join NATO the next day after the invasion as they said, and NATO would make the decision to incorporate them over night as they said.
Wait, really? Do you have a link? :O
@@lexingtonbrython1897 This is one video that explains it very well, but you can find more info on the internet if you search. Including the declaration from NATO that they will make the decision over night for their inclusion. th-cam.com/video/SWcJkVyJqIc/w-d-xo.html&ab_channel=CaspianReport
@@simplepixel5617 some people are too lazy to do their own research, they often ask do you have a link lol
@@VolodyaMuchavsky That will only happen in Nuculair war, Blow this planet out the space for ever. its a sick planet build on war war war oil, dollars for ricth elites soros schawab, rockkefellers echt sic poepole, and a Sick Media virus is the propaganda cancer in this world.
@@VolodyaMuchavsky it's funny that you assume it won't be the other way around. Invade a NATO member and eat a nuke for breakfast.
And we are back.
Funny seeing all the people arguing here over the accuracy of these predictions. It's not very easy to literally predict the future, so don't be too harsh on a TH-camr failing to get everything correct a whole month in advance (maybe more depending on when the script was written). In actual war, it's bad to be too predictable, so of course there are going to be mistakes in a video like this.
Honestly, I'm amazed how spot on you were, just the fact how poorly equipped the Russians were and how fast the sanctions from the EU were instated was completely unexpected for everyone. And could not possibly have predicted that aspect
Well ...lot of people count on the EU being divided, but if it is not it has pretty much the economic power of a superpower.
Yes, based on open source intel, his assessment was pretty good. One may say even better than the Kremlin's.
This aged like fine wine
Nice name to trick people
Well from diplomatic stand, he predicted everything correctly
Accurate and credible as usual.
Curious how 2 months ago the analysis looked pessimistic for the russians, and the credit given to infantry ukrainian forces quite too much... Now, in early april, after 30 days of clash, it looks like that despite the (not considered) help of Belarus and the concentrated effort against Kiev to topple Zelensky, the situation is so much worse for Putin, than expected.
1) territorial gain is much less than it was supposed to be.
2) air superiority was never really there
3) all major cities resisted, even Mariupol that, for its position, is basically untenable. And yet, despite surrounded, it still did not fall in russian hands.
4) Zelensky still in power, and now a star in the media.
All pessimistic points happened.
1) sanctions
2) internal russian dissent
3) huge losses in manpower and equipment
4) invasion bogged down
AND EVEN on the backfoot, with ukrainians on the counterattack, getting back territory, even striking in russian territory, moral of russian troops reportedly catastrophic.
Probably an update is due by now...
If he updates and speaks the truth, he ends up in gulag and drinks radioactive tea
this video aged like fine wine
I’m watching this 10 days into the Russian invasion and his predictions are very accurate.
Update 51 days now and he’s almost perfect with his predictions. Impressive.
Putin also has troops on the Ukraine-Belarus border right? That would change the invasion outlay a bit. Kiev could be isolated fairly easily
But involving them would be risky. Especially as it would be war of theft, not of defense.
Damn right!
we can see how well your battle predictions are for the first time.
This aged amazingly
@Bredboi-tb6fd your right
In particular, it must be taken into account that this prediction was made at a time when everyone else was saying "3 days and Kiev will be Russian". At the time, this was an incredibly "optimistic" to "idealistic" view that went against all military experts, intelligence agencies, etc.
This is basically what every intelligence agency predicted as well. We wayyyy over estimated Russia’s military competence and capabilities. This should have been over in a week.
Forgot to account for the legendary Ukrainian Tractor Battalions. 🚜🚜🚜🚜
Found 1 guy selling an AFV in Ukraine on eBay
LOL Underrated comment :)
I just pictured a small section of the video saying "Ukrainians could start using their overwhelming farming equipment capabilities to tow away Russian tanks"
24 hours into the actual invasion, and your analysis checks out so far.
yes
Hahaha checks out for Russian bs propaganda
So far, Binkov has been right. The main fighting will probably be over in a month. But sanction, alliance with China, and a second Cold War, is spot on.
lmao what are you smoking. They are inside kiev already. it's over this weekend
Bruv lmao
@@DarkAlan2 russian fake news got to you dude. They are close to Kiev but won it yet
WW3 is gonns start soon
@@misterxxxxxxxxx1 nah
Suprising how many parts aged really well. Good job & respect!
Unfortunately, the time has come for us to see how true this analysis is. :(
I pray for the Ukrainian people. Stay safe as best as you can, guys.
Except for the fact that Belarus wasn't calculated into this, this was highly accurate,
Though Russia seems to have done somewhat worse than predicted here. At least not that many Ukrainian troops seem to have been isolated into pockets and dealt with in piecemeal.
only one major citie as TODAY 02/03/2022
@@seneca983 How bad? Kiev is already under siege after day 3.
@@overclock1993 It's only one area. The graphics in this video seemed to indicate Ukrainian troops in the east getting isolated into many pockets.
(Another factor not predicted in this video is Kyiv getting approached from Belarus on the western side of the Dnieper.)
@@christopheralejandromezapa8934 It takes weeks to besiege and take over cities. They have cut off multiple big ones at this point, Mariupol being the main one.
Is it just me or is the Russian strategy proposed in this video more reasonable than what they are actually doing at the moment?
Indeed...
StarCraft taught that zerg rushing was effective. It did not teach those units needed to eat every 5 minutes and that the units bringing them food were extremely vulnerable.
You’re right. I’m not sure what they’re actually trying to accomplish. But in general they should have started by removing all the air defenses, followed by a couple of weeks of bombardment and bombings, and then the armored troops should have been sent in. They just sent out a bunch of tanks that are getting taken out left and right.
@@hashtagunderscore3173 aparently they didnt have the resources to do that, on top of believing that they war would be over in a day or two
@@hashtagunderscore3173 apparently they didn’t know where those air defenses are; just emblematic of further problems in the Russian military
Wow here we are more than two months later and binkov's prediction was really accurate. I am impressed at how it turned out to be exactly as he foresaw...
Really? Pinballman1
It is amazing how close his prediction was, especially the segment about how Russia would do worse if they focused on capturing Kyiv early.
@CR Hill i might partly agree with you. But sometimes i wonder things have gone too far for russia. Even if russia wins what would russia do with a ukraine sunk in anger and anti russia feelings? Economically speaking how would russia carry the burden of its actions and its reputation around the world? I think that a victory would be even worse to russia than an agreement with ukraine. Because in case of agreement russia would get rid of a big problem (ukraine itself)...
What a tough video binkov has had to make, he has done a miracle and come across pretty neutral and informative, and indeed you can hear in his voice just how horrible all this is
Why? Is Binkov Ukrainian?
@@mostlymessingabout yes , is an ex KGB Ukranian Soviet general .he lives in poland.
@@mostlymessingabout Are you for real? Were you born without a heart? Are you a T-1000 from the future?
@@ragnorak2237 YT says his channel is registered in Croatia, and he doesn't have that much of a slavic accent
@@Arturino_Burachelini thanks. I never knew. I did look. Where do you see Croatia? Oddly i saw two linked channels, one of which is the German guy 😃
If so much of the EU hadn't shut down their nuclear power plants after the Hokkaido earthquake and tsunami, Russia would have a lot less energy leverage over them...
The germans shut down their plants. Everyone else has been building new ones
We need to reintroduce Nuclear Plants, they are the most eco-friendly of all the alternatives.
@@BobuxGuy facts
@@BobuxGuy eco friendly? eco friendly?! what the hell do you mean "eco friendly"? Nuclear power isn't eco friendly at all. Have you seen Chernobyl? They need to dedicate so much space to storing spent fuel and equipment and that area's uninhabitable for millennia.
Chernobyl would never happen to a decent nuklear plant unless ofcause when its build at an earthquake and tsunami devastated place.
Well, it’s happening
Not officially
@@johnirvine9942 it is
@@johnirvine9942 I have the video about it
@@BurningBlueFox123 send link
@@BurningBlueFox123 I made this comment without the full knowledge of the situation, sorry.
Why is everybody talking as if he got everything wrong, he got several things right.
You're right. It's strange.
He got mostly everything right
What he didn’t get right is the operational concept
I find impressive the degree of accuracy with which Binkov predicted the actual war events with this video and the one he made in 2019! Respect!
Considering the countless variables, I agree.
Well this is unfortunately the first time we will actually see a practical test on whether the hypothetical scenario is accurate
Sadly true
No. Previously Binkov had made predictions about a probable war between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Karabakh region . The war really occurred but Binkov's predictions did not come true at all. In contrary, they have made much more accurate predictions this time.
Binkov gets it more or less spot-on about the economic consequences of the conflict and how the West would respond. The main fault with the video is that he overestimated Russian military efficiency...but then nearly everybody did. But this mistaken view was nothing like the blunder made by Putin and his high command in their underestimation of the Ukrainians.
Ukraine was well prepared for a Russian invasion. But yet, Russia could have succeeded to take Kiev in the early days of war. Maybe Ukraine just survived because Elon Musk let them use skylink!!
For being speculative, this is really accurate. Lot of people saying this didn't age well, but so much of it has come to fruition? No one counted on the Russians performing so poorly, or Belarusia's compliance in the invasion. I don't follow this channel, but yer man called the poor performance of the Russian airforce in a video older than this.
That's not exactly nostradamus is it? Their pilots fly for about 50hrs a year.
WW3 sponsored by raid shadow legends
2 years later and he wasent really wrong
@@curio78 you know that weapons and amunition doesnt fight, but people do, right?
Russian side have heavy armaments and knows how to use them.
Sorry binkov but it appears they don't.
There's that.
They do know how to level a city from afar using artillery and missiles.
@@camelcase811 they didnt do it enmass because they care about civilians.
About that...
Its really sad when a guy using a sock puppet has more foresight than most politicians....
Who's here to see how accurate binkov is?
Me
Me
Me. Garbage analysis.
It's fascinating to rewatch this now and see what Binkov got right and wrong. The assumptions were in line with most experts thought, but wars are notoriously hard to predict. It's really sad that two big countries will suffer for years to come because of on man's ego.
So what Binkov's got wrong is that he didn't foresee the invasion route from Belarus. Otherwise pretty impressively accurate.
I guess I should check in on this video over the weeks and months and see how accurate it is. It's looking pretty good so far.
That's why I'm watching it now
Just missed Belarus helping and allowing Russian forces to launch from it.
This situation is much more complicated than most videos ever get into. It is a protracted tragedy that has many nuances. I've followed it for 8 years and my heart bleeds for those who live there. I wish there was more I could do.
It's April and so much of this seems so prescient. Well done, Binkov!
Not quiet. Even this video didn’t realize how Ukraine military would hold up. Same time overestimated Russia
So we all got this vid the same minute huh?….
yeah
@@guyyatsu yes
yes
precisely
Well, it’s not an “if” anymore…
ITS HAPPENING
Now that we do have a war in Ukraine, it interesting which parts of this video proved correct and which did not. The speed of the Russian advances and their ability to take Kyiv for instance, proved to be inaccurate. The rest of it though, was spot on. The gentlemen behind Binkov should be recognized for the overall accuracy of what amounts to an intelligence estimate.
This was very inaccurate
This aged well
truly
Sadly
Am I the only one watching this video again to compare with what is happening irl?
Nope.
Everyone's just coming back to this video now lol
Yep I pray it is correct in the assessment that some of ukraine will stay out of russian control
Yep
Watching it two months later gives me chills. So many correct predictions and this is way before all of this started. Congratulations on the great analysis.
Binkov forgot to consider that Putin would be sending troops from Belarus to Kyiv, which is a much shorter journey than coming from the East from Russian territory. So instead of taking weeks to get to Kyiv, Russian forces right now are just 20 km from Kyiv and encircling the city.... *ONE DAY* after the invasion began.
That's what you get from taking military advice from a talking puppet.
There were no troops in Belarus when he made this.
Now they are in the Kiev i think. Or they will be in the next few hours
@@leviticus2001 well, you know, after Kazakhstan events I think everyone can concider any ally of Russia as an area where plenty of troops and armor can simply appear within hours. Well, just like any major NATO force, except that they don't have to cross half the globe.
@@fuck4317 Alright the situation here is more complex than you imply. Those are forward units they're not the main army. The RUS army is getting beaten down by UKR. The Russians haven't capture any of their day one goals. UKR is holding strong
First tIme a Binkov video has been put to the test.
Time to get an Iowa-class out of mothballs!
I disagree with people saying he is very wrong.
This is the most educated guess one could have.
The only reason he did not get it 100% right, is he did not know how much the west would support ukraine, and how low the russian moral would be. (In comparison to ukrainian forces.)
It was also impossible to know russian has not put it's new tech into full production and that soldiers would still use ex-soviet gear.
Nope this way very wrong stop defending it
@@schakiarligonde1736 ok
@@schakiarligonde1736 it is wrong but it is still one of the best guesses that could have been deduced
@@schakiarligonde1736 you're wrong
This video is wrong
Who’s here after Russia invaded them?
I don't understand why people are saying that this video vastly overestimates Russian performance. By his own words, conquering the East half of Ukraine would take months -- perhaps until the winter. It's been less than one month since Russia's invasion began!
Look at the map: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine
Right, but from the looks of things Russia isn't going to achieve that. They don't have the manpower, even if they bring in reinforcements.
Could even see some catastrophic defeats on some of their axis.
It's probably because in the video the surprise attack worked much better than it did. I presume the lack of logistics took everyone by surprise, Russians included.
The western media. In summary : « ukraine is winning meanwhile russians are progressing » 😂
@@tigoes I've hardly seen any media claiming that Ukraine is winning. Sure, many of them are very optimistic about Ukraine's chances at holding Russia back, but it's quite unquestionable that Russia is taking massive losses right now. Progressing, but at what cost? If they can't get their allies and puppets to bail them out, the attack is going to stagnate entirely and possibly collapse.
@@tigoes
"Progressing"
What is progress on the ground, why does that necessarily indicate they are going to win. These two things are not the same.
Plus progressing could just extend their logistics, which are bad as is, making them hard to defend and thus leaving the Russian combat arms exposed at the front to a counter attack...
You know like we are seeing in Mykolaiv and NE and NW of Kyiv.
Turned out that Russia did have the second best army, in Ukraine...
So it begins
This wasn't as bad as people said. Actually really solid and good.
Who is here after Russia did "actually'" invade Ukraine ?
To be fair, this is a very well aged video. Lots of the predictions proved to be accurate. One of the missing pieces in the video is that as Ukraine is still in its "mud season" in March, the Russian military has had to stick to the roads.
Strange, everyone saying he is wrong in his prediction seemed not to listen well to his timeline. He is talking about weeks to months of war before Russia would capture Ukraine. Other things he got wrong, but the timeline seems about right, as well as the casualty numbers. Russia having perhaps tens of thousands of casualties over the course of the war. He also accurately predicted US and NATO sanctions, even if he predicted a longer lag time for them. Certainly, it seems to have been a much more fair fight than expected, but if Russia is planning on a timeline of months and massive casualties, then, this actually scans pretty well with what we're seeing, at least in terms of those measurables.
Even if they do defeat ukraine this has been a complete disaster for Russia and has shown their military to be alot weaker than we thought. There is no way anyone can look at this unbiased and say this war went great for Russia
Well it finally happened.
And it is so far a cakewalk. Russia has already crossed the Dnieper river and is encroaching in Kiev. It is only a matter of time.
@Naikomi I don't think you understand how incompetent Ukrainian armed forces are conducting this war. Russia crossed the Dnieper without taking a single shot. That is the only geographical barrier (excl Pripyat marshes, which can be avoided) that Ukraine has defending it. Helicopters are in Kiev, Kharkiv is being attacked, Russian Tanks are invading Ukraine from every angle with minimal resistance. Troops are literally deserting (an entire tank column was left abandoned by Ukraine near Crimea). The idea that Ukraine will resist like Afghanistan is laughable, Islam does not exist as motivation and most people are not willing to risk their lives to resist occupation. See Chechnya as an example of how Russia deals with partisans (ones that are motivated by islam, Ukraine will be easy in comparison). It will be bloody, but Russia has blood to spare, Ukraine does not (even with 45 million people, demographically the country is in a dire situation).
I've always wanted to find out how these scenarios would play out, but not like this... not like this
This is the most likely scenario a draw but Russia wins
Hey, atleast you can tell your grandchildren that you were alive when Russia invaded Ukraine.
To be fair Russia is advancing rather quickly and has already captured the airport. The faster Russia advances the faster Ukraine surrenders and the faster all the other countries can stop pretending to care. Therefore less casualties. Win win.
No one had any idea of the impact of tractors on modern warfare. Slava Ukraini!
it looks like you are right binkov , russia dont have easy .
The Russians were on their way to prosperity and global respect. Their standard of living was starting to rise after centuries of hardships. And then they did this. I think the word stupid is the only way to describe it.
shooting themselves in the feet was not enough, the government went for hips and knee caps too
You don t know shit buddy. They traded their “prosperity “ of today for their security of tomorrow.
@@iwillnoteatzebugs when is the last time someone in Europe thought that to invade Russia is a boon. The entire iron courtain just want to not have any thing with the corpse of URSSR, pace time is profitabile, war is only for the big dogs.
@@iwillnoteatzebugs First of all, I'm not your buddy.
They traded their prosperity for security? That has to be the dumbest post I've read this year. Prosperity is security. Look at China. Look at the Chinese. The people are living well and their army is ten times more advanced than Russia's. An achievement that Russia will never reach for the next hundred years.
Secondly, I know exactly what I'm talking about. I was the travel adviser for an engineering firm that helped rebuild the former Soviet Union in the early nineties. Our engineers lived like kings while they were there. They could have beautiful Russian women for just $10 a day. That was sad to see. But it looks like that reality is coming back again.
idk, neighbours positioning to joining a military alliance existing AGAINST russia is a valid enough reason to feel threatened. Is it enough to attack? No, but is the option taken understandable out of desperation? Yes.
This world crisis is sponsored by Raid Shadow Legends
Their game studio is set in Kiev, Ukraine btw.
One of the few videos, that aged relatively well. Good work!
Binkov, don't forget that there's a large amount of Russian troops now in Belarus on 'exercises', and that the Belarusian/Ukrainian border isn't as well fortified as the Donbas frontlines, and it's a much shorter distance to Kyiv.
Oh, so Russians are going to be invading from Belarus concurrently? Sure, and who told you that? BBC?
Take a few satellite photos of Russian tanks, announce that Russia is invading and here we go. Half the world now believes that Russia is going to invade its neighbours. And even if they don't attack (which they wouldn't) it will be seen as the invasion was cancelled all thanks to our hero NATO. A win win propaganda. Currently the biggest weapon of the West. Very clever and effective.
@@natureblank1401 Did I say that? I just stated that they're there, and that they're doing 'exercises' near the border. I'm sure you can take from that whatever you want. Give my regards to Moscow.
@@natureblank1401 nothing wrong with that really
@@bladedninja8853 On political stage maybe not, however it's still propaganda. We need more people to be aware
Ukraine is giving Russia an even harder time than Binkov predicted.
Yes because they are hiding in houses behind civilians. Propaganda bot get ready, Mariupol is almost fully captured so is Donbas region and they will surround Karkhiv. They don't want Kiev no, they want all the black sea region and if you see the news that goes as planned. Also the ones fighting in the ground is not the actual Russian army but Russian speakers of Ukraine the Russian army is fighting in the air, ALSO Ukraine army has lost all its air-force and navy to the Russians, and their only hope is hiding in buildings.
@@josephstalin331 you mad cuz you lost the game?
@@josephstalin331 weird how so many of those buildings have destroyed Russian armour outside them.
@@josephstalin331 Stop Lying Comrade Stalin. Remember when you said this???My Georgian friend.
"I want to tell you what, from the Russian point of view, the president and the United States have done for victory in this war," Stalin said. "The most important things in this war are the machines.... The United States is a country of machines. Without the machines we received through Lend-Lease, we would have lost the war."
-Joseph Stalin
Nikita Khrushchev shared the similar opinion in his memoirs:
"If the United States had not helped us, we would not have won the war, One-on-one against Hitler's Germany, we would not have withstood its onslaught and would have lost the war. No one talks about this officially, and Stalin never, I think, left any written traces of his opinion, but I can say that he expressed this view several times in conversations with me."
@@josephstalin331 bad bot