This is potentially another good news story from the Horn of Africa. But do you think Al-Shabaab is really on the way to being defeated? As ever, I look forward to all your thoughts and comments below.
@@Remake5182 Thanks. It would be interesting to know how much popular support they have? Or is it propped up by fear? As we’ve seen, there appears to be growing opposition to the group on the ground.
Bro but we have huge problems because we can't buy or get Aid weapons We have only Ak47 and Toyota cars terrorist they also have Ak47 and Toyota cars If we get weapons that Ukraine get We can finish terrorist view days
Good news, yes. At the same time, I'm sometimes just flabbergasted at how destructive and counterproductive some political ideologies can be, particularly when bound up with religion. I'm generally quite an empathetic person and I prefer to think about why people believe the things they do. However, Islamism has tested my limits (as do other varieties of theocratic people.) We are now decades out of European decolonization. And yet, so many postcolonial nations continue to stagnate in varying degrees and varieties of dysfunction.
At 2:17 the fact about Somali ethnic are less than 75% , I hope you double check that. The goal of creating Al-shabaab is to root out and displace the minorities. So please to contribute to Al-shabaab’s objectives. Thanks!!
@@JamesKerLindsay but turkey isn't just another state that helps Somalis, they are the main state that has provided the most help to Somalis since 2012 when erdogan visited at a time no other foreign head of state was brave enough to go to somalia and help on a humanitarian level...since then turkey has built hospitals and roads in Somalia and even rejuvenated the Mogadishu airport and port...has USA or the eu accomplished anything to this degree ? Nope...on top of this turkey has built their largest embassy in the world in Somalia as well as their largest overseas military training base, camp Turksom where the Gorgor elite brigade gets trained for six months before being sent to camp Isparta turkey for further training...Gorgor unit is larger than American trained Danab, the latter is a mere 1500 poorly armed soldiers who sometimes get no training or support or pay from USA depending on their political shit storms, while Gorgor is a force of nigh on 10 thousand commandos fully armed always supported by turkey: the reliable and significant state and ally acting in Somalia
Thank you for the continued focus on international issues. It is sad to see areas with such incredible history, fall apart. I know it is part of the cycle, but it is good to see some hope for their future. Thanks again for the great videos.
The turkish efforts are good.. but they are relative small compared to the US efforts, the mission is US led, the Danab brigade is mainly trained,equipped, supported by the USA.
@@alexanderrose1556 Turkeyei hes Army Base in Somalia and Hospital controls the Airoports and Port you don't know notink like your ISLAMOFOB friend Prof James Ker-Lindsay!
Us has helped the military of somalia somalis they are confused always praising Turkish government that has no single solders in somalia but US army small contingency is in salia with Amisom
I wouldn't say the country in totality "deserves" a break, but definitely the poor and those who stand for peace, morality, God and prosperity, Somalia is at war because of their failure to adopt a system which is strong, they had a very secular government, an elected government and still insist on upholding those foreign systems, and you can't ignore the violent tendency that is present in the culture. I don't know a country that is bad without bad citizens.
I just in a coffee shop in Mogadishu sitting left corner having my morning coffee after along walking from home due to lock down of the city as international delegates arriving the capital. I was born when the UNISOM come Mogadishu (Operation restore hope) but my family didn’t flee. I witnessed the wars since then; the warlords, Ethiopian troops entering and the Alshabaab killings living with all these situations and survived (Alhamdulilah). I’m in my late 20’s worked with the Government, INGO’s and graduated my masters just couple of days ago. Watching this clip gives me hope to be resilient as well my country Somalia. Somalia will be in peace and the cowards will be defeated Insha Allah.
Thank you so much! I really appreciate it. And really pleased to hear my pronunciation was correct. Always tough to get these things right. But important to do so!
Great video. One thing to point out is that Somalia is defeating Al-shabab despite having an arms embargo. This means that Somalia is the only country in the world and possibly in history to turn the tide and defeat a terrorist organisation without tanks or modern weapons. Yes Somalia does have air support from United States and Turkey via air drones. But most of the heavy fighting is done by Somali soldiers on foot and their local nomad allies. Yes, Somali's are winning the war on terror without AMISOM. AMISON refused to help and confined themselves to the capital Mogadishu. A few years ago Al-shabab controlled 80% of Somalia. Today they control only 15% and still continue to loss more ground to the Somali army and its local nomad allies. There is a good chance that Al-shabab could be entirely eradicated from Somalia, This is especially likely if the United States and Turkey continue to give air support to the Somali army and their macawisleey allies ( local nomads).
Won't happen. You're an obvious MSM troll. Only the MSM voters are that optimistic. Everyone knows that it's impossible to defeat them on the battlefield, I'm afraid.
A great video as always, Professor. How on earth is al-Shabaab taking in the equivalent of up to $100 million USD a year? What are they selling, and/or who is funding them? I seriously doubt that extorting already-impoverished Somalis would be enough to bring in revenue like that.
I know! I thought the same. I would be keen to know how these estimates were reached and where the money comes from. Banditry and extortion is obviously a part, but $100 million is an incredible figure.
You didn't believe if I said to you they planted drugs and sell they have more money because they take money companies and other businesses they export honey camel and drugs Some Arab countries they support them For example Qatar and UAE When we make good relationship with Qatar UAE will support them When we make good relationship with UAE Qatar will support them
@@JamesKerLindsay According to a US Treasury Dept report (dated 17 Oct 22) they somewhat vaguely described the cash flow as being derived from extortion, fees on goods traded within their territory, and the “facilitation of illegal trades.” CFR’s page on al-Shabaab (last updated 6 Dec 22) also describes their funding as coming from other terrorist groups, piracy, kidnapping, checkpoint tolls, particularly lucrative taxes on charcoal, and annual religious taxes. Voice of America (3 Nov 2011) makes the claim that Eritrea has financed them, but the Eritrean government denies this. Hope this is informative and thank you for all the work you do!
@Prof James Ker-Lindsay Professor Somalia's economy is actually bigger than officially known..al shabaab have a list of companies that import goods into Somalia they tax these companies, they also tax local businesses like shops, construction companies plus people who's houses are being built, plus somalia exports 2 billions worth of life stock they tax these export companies, they also tax telecommunications companies otherwise they blow up the mobile phone network. The business people get calls and threats that they will be killed if they refuse, so its not hard to get 100 million for them. Al shabaabs tax department and intelligence network is better and more efficient than many countries let alone Somalia as it seems.
The main core of the Somali troops are the Turkish train soldiers. As I Somali man I have much gratitude to Turkiyi 🇹🇷. I sometimes think Turkey is the actual Somali government because of all the state building they are doing in the country.
We don't need the western idea of a secular state, we need our identity, including religion and culture, and we don't accept anything from a secular state. as the do the western 😂
Hello professor, greeting from Kenya.Albeit being Kenyan national,I'm ethnic Somali too who is informed about the somalia dynamics. Allow me to say this,that turkey take most credit for rebuilding Somalia military. In the war against Alshabaab, USA are only giving Arial support through the use of drones as so does turkey too who is not only assisting them but has equally armed the somalia military with drones too. Save for the Danab brigade,the rest of the somalia brigade was trained and armed by Turkish government and it's worth mentioning
I believe the loss of local clan support could be the death knell for Al-Shabaab as we knew it. As we saw in Afghanistan, a top down approach to rooting out these sorts of militant extremists won't be successful without the tacit unanimous support of those living in the rural villages.
The Government is scared these organised civilians just want their hands on the 100 million dollar illegal revenue stream to become the new underground boss.
Informative and well prepared. Thanks proff james, it's another great hope for my fellow somali people, to hear such hopeful news. Foreigners usually focus on our dark side, but really matters.
One thing to note is that the previous administration neglected the war on Alshabab and that gave them a space to grow. Luckily President Hassan is back and six months in office his administration has already captured more territory than the previous administration .
Fermajo is the best president Somalia 🇸🇴 ever had! Be honest and get off tribalist mentality. After the fall of Somalia, no leader were in control of all Somalia. Somalia under Fermajo was the most structured, secured and respected country. Do you know he is the only president who left power several hundred of millions dollars to the next president. Somalia politicians under him follow protocol unlike the previous presidents who let everyone do whatever they wanted and act like uncivilized people. If he was in power Somalia 🇸🇴 would have been free of Al Shebab and would have army that could have defended all Somalia. I thought Somalia would change forever but this guy came and disgraced all Somalia
Somali won The war of 1977 between Somalia iyo Ethiopia but Soviet Union Entered the war helping Ethiopia and Somalia decided to pull its troops in order to save them from the supper power forces. Great documentary. thanks
Thank you for your well researched and informative video. Somalia is an extreme example of what happens to a country when religious fanatics take over. My wife traveled to Uganda straight after the Al-Shabaab attack on the shopping mall in Nairobi, Kenya. I was very worried for her safety at that time. She was there with a team of doctors for humanitarian aid. I read up about Al-Shabaab. My research considered the Nairobi attack took the US completely by surprise. It didn't think Al-Shabaab members had the IQ to organise anything. They must have had help.
Thank you. Yes, there was probably a lot of underestimation. But the group has shown itself to be very effective and very deadly across many countries.
First of all, thanks for putting up this is a very nice and articulated report but I picked two points in the report. 1- You only spoke US support and Danab troops, but you haven't mentioned in your report Turkish military equipment such as arms and drones and training the biggest portion of the Somali military. 2- You didn't enlighten where insurgents are getting military support. other than those points the report is marvelous.
Thanks a lot. Yes, I should have mentioned Turkey directly. As for the insurgency, the link with Al-Qaeda seemed sufficient. But it would indeed be interesting to explore this in more detail.
From my reading, I've noticed that the two common factors in insurgencies are 1) a lack of security outside of urban centers; and 2) a lack of border controls. The US created an effective policy of building forts during its Western expansion which allowed for the protection of civilians, banks, telecommunications, and transport links. The provided stop off points for quick reaction forces as well. Beating an insurgency requires the government to be more reliable and more reachable than their opponents.
The most important factor in modern counter-insurgency is about social and inter-communal conflict, and the perception of the state. People who hate the state will support the people fighting it, and they certainly will not risk their lives and property by informing on or refusing to collaborate/support insurgents for a state they don't trust. States need to be credible, supportive, present, and most importantly genuinely helpful to people. Corrupt local ministers/administrators, exploitative courts, arbitrary violence from local police and militia, and racist/violent rhetoric against minority groups in media all create the perfect ground for insurgency.
Aaron, i'm a puntite from punt, we have no alshabab here, from garowe, to galkayo, to hobyo to xafuun, are all paradise. Google us, you'll see. Alshabab is in the south, coincidence? what does your READING tell you about that?
@@Charlzton I agree, but I think there is often a fundamental mistake in counter-insurgency operations where the focus is on the central government rather than local administration. Allowing locals to govern themselves will always be more attractive than being forced to submit to either force in an insurgent conflict.
You should have focused on the importance of the Turkish military in Somalia. How the Somalian army has been trained by them and the newly purchased Turkish systems was a game changer for the government. US has no impact atm.
Thanks. I’m not really a history channel. My focus is on international relations. I have to keep things short and so I tend to cover the modern aspects.
The fundamental problem in these wars was identified in the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy books, Ford Prefect, talking about the Krikkit wars said of the Krikkit warriors 'They care, we don't, they win' which played out in Afghanistan recently. People need something positive to believe in if the government is to prevail, e.g. Lenin's (lie of) peace, bread, land.
The days of Al shabaab Alqeada is ending soon Somali tribes are fighting against terrorist groups Turkiye is taking huge parts Turkish trained special forces are doing great jobs Turkish and America both helped as for drones missions Our African Brothers in Atmis also they are doing great job When we make save our land Somalia We will go Mozambique and Nigeria to fight other terrorists Africa is our mother We are going every African land to save African mother We are also stands with other continents when it comes war against terrorist groups terrorist doesn't have colour or religion terrorist doesn't have law or land
@@kingsman7965 when you stole other people's house you most know they will attack you when day You are smart of you know your enemy Know attacking Kenya is not doing anything We want to tack back our region peacefully but future we will attack like how Azerbaijan attacked Armenia We love peaceful Kenyan people Jambo Hakuna matata
I hope that after this conflict is gone and the federal government and Somalia has stabilized, they wouldn't try to annex Somaliland with a war or something and actually recognize their independence so that both states can go on their ways
Somalia is in the predicament it's in because of Somaliland, as Somaliland expelled and defeated parasitic fagash forces from Zoomalia. And liberated and reinstated its sovereignty. Second conflict would be the end of Zoomalia. The sooner that state ceases to exist. The better for humanity. The end is near R.I.P Somalia Somaliland patriot
@@GeeljirePower I mean if that's the case, they could just negotiate and after Somalia is pacific and stable enough, I don't think anyone would want to support Somalia in their claims because everyone would tired of this war thing and not support Somalia in a conflict with Somaliland
Cheers Clifford! By the way, I've taken to calling the news article graphics I add into the videos my 'visual footnotes'. I guess it's the academic in me. I feel uncomfortable saying things without having some evidence to support it. :-)
As a Somali living in Somalia I would like to say that Islamist extremist groups, such as Al-Shabaab, have caused nothing but chaos and devastation. They have extorted millions of dollars from innocent civilians, including some of my own family members, and have shown no remorse for the destruction they have caused. Unfortunately, the government has not always been able to effectively combat these groups and bring them to justice. In the past, soldiers have been known to engage in violent and corrupt behavior, causing further harm to the Somali people. However, there is hope on the horizon. The current government appears to be more dedicated and serious about eradicating Al-Shabaab and other extremist groups than previous administrations. They are holding soldiers accountable for their actions and are cracking down on those who give in to Al-Shabaab's demands for money. It is my hope that, with these efforts, the government will be able to weaken Al-Shabaab's power and bring them to the negotiating table for a chance at amnesty and peace. It is time for the Somali people to be free from the fear and violence caused by these extremist groups. We deserve to live in peace and prosperity, and I am hopeful that this new government will be able to bring about the positive change that we so desperately need.
Nice to hear the perspective of someone living there. One question. Does Al-Shabaab have any popular support among the population? I don't understand why they commit terrorists attacks against civilians. That's the kind of behavior that caused ETA to lose a lot of popular support in Spain. I hope one day Somalia can be peaceful and prosperous. And I really hope a conflict doesn't break out with Somaliland if the rest of the country finally comes under government control.
Thank you so much for this. I really appreciate it. And I’m very sorry for the personal loss you’ve suffered. It is good to hear that you have the sense that maybe things are changing for the better. Let’s indeed hope! Very best wishes from London.
@@Gonza-lh2vo Al-Shabaab continues to have support among certain minority clans in the southern region of the country. These minority clans have faced numerous massacres at the hands of the majority noble clans, and some feel that the presence of Al-Shabaab has helped to mitigate these atrocities. In addition, Al-Shabaab has also gained some support among young, radicalized groups who feel disillusioned and lack hope for the future. They believe that the establishment of an Islamic Republic paradise is the only way to build a better Somalia. However, it is important to note that Al-Shabaab is slowly losing support among the general population. Many Somalis have witnessed the destructive effects of radical groups in other countries, such as the suffering of Sunnis in Iraq and Syria, and do not want to see their own nation go down a similar path. Overall, it is clear that the support for Al-Shabaab is declining, but it still persists among certain groups within Somalia. Thanks for reading and sorry for the long comment.
@@JamesKerLindsay I hope that you will continue to produce more videos addressing the various issues facing Africa, and specifically the Horn of Africa region. Your in-depth knowledge and expertise on these topics are invaluable and I believe it is important to bring more attention to the challenges and opportunities facing this region. Thank you for all of your hard work and dedication to sharing your insights with the world. Best wishes from Marka.
@@JamesKerLindsay thanks dude I only ask because Somalia is right across the water from Yemen and both are rogue states, kinda so I was thinking one might be affect the other
What most western media forget to mention is that they don't mention Turkey's role in rebuilding the military and also it's aerial support during this campaign. Also ATMIS is not taking part in this campaign their role so far is to protect the airport and the green zone.
The role of Turkey of building and equipping Somalia forces is considered a big mistake which is against the UN embargo as these weapons and trained forces are now used to fight Somaliland to disrupt peace and stability. By doing this Turkey is igniting a war that ended in 1991 between Somalia and Somaliland. It also show partiality and lack of consideration which was not expected from great Muslim country. The right thing was to maintain the weapon embargo untill political settlement is reached. Somaliland has solved its internal problems through political process and not by military actions.
Another great video. I''ve seen a few vidoes on the topic over the past couple years including some international travel youtubers that went there on the group. Also saw a video from Vice news. It's chaos and it just seems like every few years I hear about great progress only for nothing big to materialize. Al-Shabaab can be beaten and I think the latest news is a sign of that but realistically, this is probably just the beginning of a long slow decline of Al-Shabaab. I can't imagine Al-Shabaab being a non-important factor in Somalia anytime in the next decade.
Maybe they're not meant to be a contiguous state. The UN could "de recognize it" turn it into a dotted-line general territory and recommend a return dueling clan enclaves.
I'm so glad I came across this channel. I usually avoid these channels as I often find them quite shallow with flashy graphics and little substance so tend to stick to books. This channel is such a breath of fresh air. Great establishment of context, clear explanation of concepts and rich analysis. Keep it up!!
Thank you very much indeed. I really appreciate it. Yes, I don’t do the flashy graphics. But I do hope that I make up for it in other ways. A very warm welcome!
This's extraordinary analytical discussion, truthfully I wondered how you narrated the Somalia its far history and present situation, I hope Somali soldiers and local forces would defeat al-shabab which is mobs from different parts of the world.
Thank you for another great video! It seems like there's a lot of involvement from the US, the UN, the African Union, but I wonder how other powers such as China, India and Russia, especially with those stories of Somali pirates and all. I'd imagine a failed state in the middle of a strategic trade route is a big risk.
Isaaq Genocide: Between 1987 and 1989, the regime of Somali dictator Siad Barre massacred an estimated 900,000 members of the Isaaq tribe, the largest clan group in SOMALILAND. At the time, some Isaaqs were fighting for independence, and to eliminate the threat, Barre tried to exterminate all of them. Experts now say there are more than 200 mass graves in Somaliland, most of them in the Valley of Death. Thas why the Somalilanders hate South Somalia. And never will be part of . One day very soon somaliland will be internationally recognized. Till than come come visit use in somaliland , Somaliland is peaceful and has very kind people ❤️🤍💚
Terrorism can't be defeated by purely a millitary solution but millitary action is part of the solution. Reminder that while ISIS is active they no longer have concentration camps
Can you do a video talking about why so many wars are so hard end? Somalia, Afghanistan, Libya etc are wars that all have simmer for years after the most intense fighting ended yet the war kept going bc they could come to a sustained peace.
Only way for actual peace would be a domestic political unity and sovereignty. Two things that wider global and regional powers do not want and will not accept.
First of all great video as always. But i am a bit disappointed that you didnt mention the turkish role in the region. They are the biggest supporter of both somali and somaliland. They are giving lots of help militarily and humanitary. I was expecting you to mention their role but other than that great vid professor 👍
@Alen Bacco yeah like hosting 4 million refugees within its borders, and going after pkk terrorists that are supported by U.S military. Supporting Ukraine, providing a corridor for the grain to reach the world.
You say the UN Security Council reports that Al-Shabaab have "$100m a year in revenues from various sources". I looked up the report to see what sources these are, since surely a very effective way of curtailing their activities would be to cut off their money supply at source. The UN report is rather vague and states that one major source is "taxation of all aspects of the Somali economy". It seems (from what I read elsewhere) that they are able to extort money from some Somali ports, but does this amount to $100m a year? Is it possible that al-Shabaab can extort money from "all aspects of the Somali economy"? If so, then they possibly have support among the general population and will be more difficult to defeat than if they were just a terrorist organisation without roots.
Thanks. You are absolutely right. It seems like an extraordinary amount. But I can't believe that the UN would have included it if it didn't feel that it was in some way an accurate reflection of what it believes the situation to be. That said, it would be interesting to have a fuller breakdown of what these sources of revenue are. And you are also right about the possibility of wider support. Here again, though, it may be a rather complex picture. It may have started off as popular support in the face of anarchy. Now it may be driven by fear and intimidation, hence the rise of the local militias.
I live in somalia, and alshabab is taking more and more lands every day . The goverment is hopeless and cowards . Soon, we will have no choice but to except their rule, and play it along, just like Afghanistan
Thank you for contributing to the World history. I would like to bring to your attention that there is no where a religion is extremist. You can't say "Islamic extremism" because Islam is an Arabic word which means being obedient and submission to the will of Allah(God). The religion is not a problem. I would therefore suggest using Muslim or Christian or Jews extremism. Saying Islamic extremism is an insult please don't use it.
James, what do you think of Romania and Bulgaria being refused again for Schengen? Austria refused Romania and Netherlands refused Bulgaria. I don't know about Bulgaria, but here in Romania there are protest because the reasons for Austria's refusal are bogus. They argued that they don't want to see again an immigrant crysis as in 2015 despite only 2% of immigrants going through Romania, most went through Bulgaria -> Serbia -> Croatia (Austria also disagrees with Hungary on the wall, at least on paper), and the corruption and safety, which according to the world's corruption index Romania isn't that far from Austria, and when it comes to safety Romania is safer than Austria. Many are suspecting Austria refused out of economic reasons, that Romania recently refused Austria an economic deal that would be very advantageous to Austria, it was so important that the president of Romania went to talk with the CEO of OMV company (Austrian) . Could you please make a video on this?
👍Video! I as a Somali couldn't do better! You're spot on that Somalis are a homogeneous but tribal ethnic group! That's why Isaq clan (Somaliland) wants to use colonial map as a convenient argument to create a "clan country" to rule! Not because of linguistic cultural or ethnic differences! We will get a rid of Al-shabaab who are nothing but anarchist gangs and reclaim our once great country! As a Somalilander I differ your Somaliland viewpoint but I enjoy your videos and admire your work.
@Camellion, firstly, the whole of Africa and the rest of the colonized world are using borders created by European colonizers, Somaliland gained independence in 1960 based on that same border system, and reclaimed its independence in 1990 after a genocide was commited by Somalia on the Somaliland population, particularly the Isaaq clan. Secondly, Somalia is not homogenious as you claim as it gas over 2 millions Bantus citizens and millions more who speak other languages such the May language. Thirdly, vast majority of Somalilanders (+97%) voted for independance, and in democracy, majority rules. Finally, the US has just started the process to establish a military alliance with Somaliland, signalling to Somalia that the ship has sailed and Somaliland is never going to reunite with Somalia.
This was a video about Somalia not other countries where Somalis live. If Somalia was invested in its own recovery since 1991 there might have have been some progress. I believe Somalia's fruitless attempt at exerting itself outside its Italian colonial borders is part of its failure to effect internal change. For 32years nearly 3million of its population are in refugee camps in neighbouring countries from Kenya, Ethiopia, Djibouti and Somaliland. Imagine when those 3million refugees are reinterpreted into Somalia? Somaliland is a De Facto state and will one day be a De Jure state a fact Somalia needs to come to terms with. Somalia would be wise to focus its attention on gaining control over it's former Italian colonial territory. It is best to leave Djibouti, Haud-Ethiopia, NFD-Kenya and Somaliland for post-reconcilliation of Somalia. Focusing on pan-Somalism in East Africa will not excuse Somalia's failures. Moreover how cannot the greatest failure in the history of nationhood claim to champion nationalism? Its oxymoronic.
I definitely think Somalia can get rid of the terrorist organization group, but the problem is Somalia has lot of corruption leaders. The clans are bit divided right now and somaliland the northern state doesn’t want to be part of Somalia anymore. With these problems around I don’t think it will be easier to get rid of the Al shabaab. I am Somali from the Somali state in Ethiopia, recently Al shabaab entered our region but we defeated them and some of them are in jail they are still being investigate. Our soldiers are in the border line protecting us.
thank you very much for the video, it is high time Somalians get a little break from tragedy. I wonder (truly - I have no idea), isn't the resilience of these terrorist groups ultimately emanates from some level of support of the local population? much like other totalitarian regimes, they are dependent on some level of legitimacy that prevents an uprising (I know that was the case with ISIS).
Al Shabab provide law and order. They also protect minority and marginalised groups by applying rule of law equally irrespective of clan, wealth ect. If you're a woman, from a minority clan or you're desperately poor being in an Al Shabab controlled region is a bigger guarantor of your safety and your rights to your property and land compared to the govt which is just a formalised version of clan cronyism.
Thanks Rafi. This is a great point. It is so interesting to see how these things can evolve, isn't it? At first, the group may have seemed a way to install some law and order in a life of anarchy under warlords. But as it grew and became more powerful, it became a tyranny. But with its brutality and extortion it was able to keep opposition in check. It is extraordinarily brave of these groups to rise up. What I find interesting are cases like the Taliban in Afghanistan, which are so brutal and yet enjoy resurgent popular support.
@@skp8748 as in many such cases, any way you look at it, someone is going to suffer greatly by the hand of the other's liberator. morally, and even objectively, none need suffer. Maybe this is the true power of democracy, the fact that loss of elections does not mean the loss of heads.
@@JamesKerLindsay Somalia had local islamic militias since the collapse of Siad Barre government. We had various Islamic groups like Al-itihad and others. These groups were less extreme and less brutal in their dealings with the people. They later united to form Islamic courts in Mogadishu then moved fast to other parts of Somalia apart from Puntland and Somaliland regions. This led Ethiopia and a new national government formed in Kenya to launch an offensive to retake Mogadishu and other parts of the country from the Islamic courts. Upto now the islamists were moderate and enjoyed large support from local populations who were eagerly awaiting any form of stability and normality in their lives. After the Islamic courts were defeated and replaced by new national government led by Presdent Abdullahi Yusuf; Al-shabab was formed by remnants of Islamic courts group; the more extreme wing, boosted by new members from all over the World. From al-qaida to Afghan trained veterans and youths recruited from neighbouring countries. This internationalized the group as they targeted Kenya and Uganda. It was no longer local problem but international group affiliated with Al-qaida and ISIS. They became brutal and the new recruits implimented new tactics not known in Somalia e.g suicide bombing, use of explosive devices and mass murder targeting mosques, markets, hotels, schools, government institutions e.t.c In other words, Al-shabab are international designated group like Bokoharam, Al-qaida in Sahel region, ISIS and others. They are not just local extremist group. They can only be defeated by concerted efforts from both local and international partners. They are filling a vacuum created by bad politics, unstable government and interference by our neighbours who have their own agenda in Somalia. The current uprising can weaken them significantly but cannot be defeated easily. Thanks
wow man you put it all in 13 minutes that's almost impassible, great job professor. you're well aware of Somalia the past and the present. we'll defeat alshabab soon insha Allah, and make Somalia great again.
Thank you so much. I really appreciate the kind words! It certainly isn’t easy trying to fit so much into short videos like this. And I know that some people will always feel that I missed out some particular piece of information. But I do hope that I can provide a quick explainer to someone who might be new to a topic.
@@JamesKerLindsay yeah you missed some information by detail but you really tell the story and the conclusion which is the important part and I can tell that cause I was born and raised in Mogadishu and still live here good job professor. you did a great job on this video in just 13 minutes, I almost couldn't believe how short the video was and the amount of information you talked about in there.
Somalia wasn’t defeated by Ethiopia, Somalia was defeated by giant nations all together with supporting Ethiopia. Somalia got very close to capture Adisababa the capital city of Ethiopia. Somalia army was the strongest in Africa at that time. Time will come and Somalia 🇸🇴 will get more stronger without dictatorship rule.
Hello James, I am a Somali from the Somali region of Ethiopia. I have been following your videos for a while and I find that they are educational and interesting at the same time. With regard to your episodes on Somalia and also Somaliland, the information you provided is 100% accurate, but there is one point where I disagree with you. And that is that I heard you in this video and in another video saying that the Somali ethnicity in the State of Somalia is 85% and as far as I know the Somali ethnicity is the only ethnicity in Somalia and there is no other ethnicity,(That means somali ethnicity is 100% not 85%) so I wanted to ask you whether this information is accurate and can you give me its source?
The good thing is that the Somali government is making progress. Looks like the citizens are tired of these terrorists and want to help protect their country.
Thank you for covering this topic, the issue that can the current Somali government can defeat Alshabab, I have doubt as the new president is well know among Somali observers as very corrupt leader, and to see his inner circle are full of very worrying individuals whom many Somalis believe they have collaborating Alshabaab previously, Another issue is why the 20k strong African Soldiers doing in Somalia? Their last compat was years ago,
Being an Indian, growing Islamic extremism does feel threatening. Our country's security has been fully our own responsibility. Growing threats from our NW neighbour have increased tensions in the region. Kashmir has been relatively stable compared to past, but can't predict the future. I believe education & employment are two biggest weapons against terrorism. Because even if you kill the people, you can't kill that ideology. PS: I wonder what are US interests in the region. Is it only the strategic choke point of horn of Africa? Or is it oil? Or something else? Thankyou Prof!
gues what even THE al shabab have the tripal division you may not see it but its there and the group have been in the loosing end sence most of there existence
You're views about Somalia 🇸🇴 sounds good, otherwise it's complicated hence foreign intervention plays a significant role by profiting 📈 the war in Somalia 🇸🇴
Why do you not talk about how much Turkish government help somalia🤦? They build hospitals, roads, schools, Airport. They train Somali military and have a huge base in Somalia.
Facts and to the point, I just want to say I am not going to lie to you, at the beginning I was a bit suspicious that this video is going to be another western propaganda video about Somalia but my curiosity made me finish the video and I am happy and more then satisfied with your presentation. thank you sir and keep up the good work, I am subscribing to your channel and eager to watch more political analysis done by your channel
I am from Somalia. Prof let me say you are well informed on this matter. However, the tide is going against AS due to popular revolution against them initiated by the tribes. In Somali history all the falls of ideology groups where initiated when they arrogantly start attacking Somali tribes case in point the fall of the Darawish led by Sayid Mohamed Abdulle Hassan 1920. AS arr parasite living among the tribes but once they got powerful they started murdering innocent people near Beledweyn city coz those people were from a tribe that was fighting them in the past months that was the butterfly effect on their fall. They can not control the bush territories without the tribes. This government using that tactics against them and if they keep doing the same in each region they might defeat AS without the participation of ATMIS which so far contributed little in this fight. Well done topnotch analysis Professor 👏 👌
Thank you so much for the kind comment and for the extra information. This is one of the reasons I love making these videos. The excellent contributions from viewers really help to add context that I may have missed or didn’t have time to cover in more detail. Thank you so much. I really appreciate it.
This is potentially another good news story from the Horn of Africa. But do you think Al-Shabaab is really on the way to being defeated? As ever, I look forward to all your thoughts and comments below.
As a Somali I hate to say no, as many other Somalis sympathise with them.
@@Remake5182 Thanks. It would be interesting to know how much popular support they have? Or is it propped up by fear? As we’ve seen, there appears to be growing opposition to the group on the ground.
Bro but we have huge problems because we can't buy or get Aid weapons
We have only Ak47 and Toyota cars
terrorist they also have
Ak47 and Toyota cars
If we get weapons that Ukraine get
We can finish terrorist view days
Good news, yes. At the same time, I'm sometimes just flabbergasted at how destructive and counterproductive some political ideologies can be, particularly when bound up with religion. I'm generally quite an empathetic person and I prefer to think about why people believe the things they do. However, Islamism has tested my limits (as do other varieties of theocratic people.)
We are now decades out of European decolonization. And yet, so many postcolonial nations continue to stagnate in varying degrees and varieties of dysfunction.
At 2:17 the fact about Somali ethnic are less than 75% , I hope you double check that. The goal of creating Al-shabaab is to root out and displace the minorities. So please to contribute to Al-shabaab’s objectives. Thanks!!
We love Somali Peoples ❤ ❤ Greetings from Türkiye 🇹🇷
We also love Turkey 🇹🇷 🥰
You guys have some awesome history and amazing coffee, have a good day Ahee
Don’t waste your love on animals
They have nothing but guns 😂😂😂😂😂
We your warm greeting bro thnkbu
Turkey is the only state that supports and helps the Somali state. There is no turkey in your comments, very interesting
Turkey is one of the states that helps. It isn’t the *only* one. But, yes, I accept that it does provide assistance.
That's nothing compared to what they will gain in the future is just their rush to Africa plan like china
@@JamesKerLindsay but turkey isn't just another state that helps Somalis, they are the main state that has provided the most help to Somalis since 2012 when erdogan visited at a time no other foreign head of state was brave enough to go to somalia and help on a humanitarian level...since then turkey has built hospitals and roads in Somalia and even rejuvenated the Mogadishu airport and port...has USA or the eu accomplished anything to this degree ? Nope...on top of this turkey has built their largest embassy in the world in Somalia as well as their largest overseas military training base, camp Turksom where the Gorgor elite brigade gets trained for six months before being sent to camp Isparta turkey for further training...Gorgor unit is larger than American trained Danab, the latter is a mere 1500 poorly armed soldiers who sometimes get no training or support or pay from USA depending on their political shit storms, while Gorgor is a force of nigh on 10 thousand commandos fully armed always supported by turkey: the reliable and significant state and ally acting in Somalia
Your right
@@abdulali8738 senin yaptığın terbiyesizlik.
Thank you for the continued focus on international issues. It is sad to see areas with such incredible history, fall apart. I know it is part of the cycle, but it is good to see some hope for their future. Thanks again for the great videos.
Thank you so much. I really appreciate the support. I love doing the videos, even if the topics are often sensitive and difficult.
@@abdulali8738 pretty good spam post
Turkeyei has been a significant player helping Somalia. The U.S has been present but Turkeyei has had a heavy impact on helping the Somalia government
It's Turkey, not Turkeyei
@@ClydeShadow6 not 🦃 (turkey) offical name turkiye
The turkish efforts are good.. but they are relative small compared to the US efforts, the mission is US led, the Danab brigade is mainly trained,equipped, supported by the USA.
@@alexanderrose1556 Turkeyei hes Army Base in Somalia and Hospital controls the Airoports and Port you don't know notink like your ISLAMOFOB friend Prof James Ker-Lindsay!
Us has helped the military of somalia somalis they are confused always praising Turkish government that has no single solders in somalia but US army small contingency is in salia with Amisom
Thank you Turkey 🇹🇷 our only loyal friend…
We are together strong 🇸🇴❤🇹🇷
Let's hope so. Few deserve their luck turning around as much as Somalia.
Thanks. I completely agree. It deserves a break.
I wouldn't say the country in totality "deserves" a break, but definitely the poor and those who stand for peace, morality, God and prosperity, Somalia is at war because of their failure to adopt a system which is strong, they had a very secular government, an elected government and still insist on upholding those foreign systems, and you can't ignore the violent tendency that is present in the culture.
I don't know a country that is bad without bad citizens.
I just in a coffee shop in Mogadishu sitting left corner having my morning coffee after along walking from home due to lock down of the city as international delegates arriving the capital. I was born when the UNISOM come Mogadishu (Operation restore hope) but my family didn’t flee. I witnessed the wars since then; the warlords, Ethiopian troops entering and the Alshabaab killings living with all these situations and survived (Alhamdulilah). I’m in my late 20’s worked with the Government, INGO’s and graduated my masters just couple of days ago. Watching this clip gives me hope to be resilient as well my country Somalia. Somalia will be in peace and the cowards will be defeated Insha Allah.
I like how you summarized and fit it with only 13 minutes also your pronouncition of Macawisley was accurate. Thanks for the coverage you did it well.
Thank you so much! I really appreciate it. And really pleased to hear my pronunciation was correct. Always tough to get these things right. But important to do so!
@@abdulali8738 lol stop
Well researched and well explained. Tnx for this
Thanks so much!
Great video. One thing to point out is that Somalia is defeating Al-shabab despite having an arms embargo. This means that Somalia is the only country in the world and possibly in history to turn the tide and defeat a terrorist organisation without tanks or modern weapons. Yes Somalia does have air support from United States and Turkey via air drones. But most of the heavy fighting is done by Somali soldiers on foot and their local nomad allies. Yes, Somali's are winning the war on terror without AMISOM. AMISON refused to help and confined themselves to the capital Mogadishu. A few years ago Al-shabab controlled 80% of Somalia. Today they control only 15% and still continue to loss more ground to the Somali army and its local nomad allies. There is a good chance that Al-shabab could be entirely eradicated from Somalia, This is especially likely if the United States and Turkey continue to give air support to the Somali army and their macawisleey allies ( local nomads).
Thanks for your positive comment exactly that is the picture on the ground.
Won't happen. You're an obvious MSM troll.
Only the MSM voters are that optimistic. Everyone knows that it's impossible to defeat them on the battlefield, I'm afraid.
@@abdulali8738 masha Allah good job
A great video as always, Professor. How on earth is al-Shabaab taking in the equivalent of up to $100 million USD a year? What are they selling, and/or who is funding them? I seriously doubt that extorting already-impoverished Somalis would be enough to bring in revenue like that.
I know! I thought the same. I would be keen to know how these estimates were reached and where the money comes from. Banditry and extortion is obviously a part, but $100 million is an incredible figure.
You didn't believe if I said to you they planted drugs and sell
they have more money because they take money companies and other businesses
they export honey camel and drugs
Some Arab countries they support them
For example Qatar and UAE
When we make good relationship with Qatar UAE will support them
When we make good relationship with UAE Qatar will support them
@@JamesKerLindsay Thank you for your comment! I’d be very interested to learn more about this aspect of the situation.
@@JamesKerLindsay According to a US Treasury Dept report (dated 17 Oct 22) they somewhat vaguely described the cash flow as being derived from extortion, fees on goods traded within their territory, and the “facilitation of illegal trades.” CFR’s page on al-Shabaab (last updated 6 Dec 22) also describes their funding as coming from other terrorist groups, piracy, kidnapping, checkpoint tolls, particularly lucrative taxes on charcoal, and annual religious taxes. Voice of America (3 Nov 2011) makes the claim that Eritrea has financed them, but the Eritrean government denies this. Hope this is informative and thank you for all the work you do!
@Prof James Ker-Lindsay Professor Somalia's economy is actually bigger than officially known..al shabaab have a list of companies that import goods into Somalia they tax these companies, they also tax local businesses like shops, construction companies plus people who's houses are being built, plus somalia exports 2 billions worth of life stock they tax these export companies, they also tax telecommunications companies otherwise they blow up the mobile phone network. The business people get calls and threats that they will be killed if they refuse, so its not hard to get 100 million for them. Al shabaabs tax department and intelligence network is better and more efficient than many countries let alone Somalia as it seems.
The main core of the Somali troops are the Turkish train soldiers. As I Somali man I have much gratitude to Turkiyi 🇹🇷. I sometimes think Turkey is the actual Somali government because of all the state building they are doing in the country.
🇹🇷💕🇸🇴 sizleri seviyoruz. Umarım ülkenizde barış egemen olur. Somali büyük atılımlar yapar ve Somaliler refaha kavuşur.
I’m somali, and I think everything you said is 100% correct. Very informative as well. Thanks,
Thank you so much. Let’s hope the country can get past this and continue on the road to recovery.
We don't need the western idea of a secular state, we need our identity, including religion and culture, and we don't accept anything from a secular state. as the do the western 😂
Hello professor, greeting from Kenya.Albeit being Kenyan national,I'm ethnic Somali too who is informed about the somalia dynamics.
Allow me to say this,that turkey take most credit for rebuilding Somalia military.
In the war against Alshabaab, USA are only giving Arial support through the use of drones as so does turkey too who is not only assisting them but has equally armed the somalia military with drones too.
Save for the Danab brigade,the rest of the somalia brigade was trained and armed by Turkish government and it's worth mentioning
Thank you 🙇
Of course they want to hide the effort of our turkish brothers. Without turkey the army wouldnt be so effective and somalia would be still in Chaos.
I believe the loss of local clan support could be the death knell for Al-Shabaab as we knew it. As we saw in Afghanistan, a top down approach to rooting out these sorts of militant extremists won't be successful without the tacit unanimous support of those living in the rural villages.
The Government is scared these organised civilians just want their hands on the 100 million dollar illegal revenue stream to become the new underground boss.
Even though they may be bad people, I have always loved the name Al-Shabaab. It reminds of a 1950's-60's musical doowop singing group like Sha-Na-Na.
Thank you for covering these topics professor!
Thanks so much! I really appreciate it.
Informative and well prepared.
Thanks proff james, it's another great hope for my fellow somali people, to hear such hopeful news.
Foreigners usually focus on our dark side, but really matters.
Thank you. I know the country has had an incredibly difficult history. But I hope it is on the way to recovery.
Yep let's ignore Turkey part in the new Somalian Army, and ignore the devastating effects of US operation in the 1990s
Did I ignore the US in the 1990s? Pretty sure it was there.
thanks Prof James🙂
Thank you.
very well explained. i'm sure somalia is in the right path and recovering very fast.
Thank you. Let's hope that it is.
I hope in 2023 long time conflicts start getting over. Especially Yemen war and Syria war
Thanks. I completely agree. Let’s hope that 2023 sees more conflicts resolved.
@@JamesKerLindsay Nah, 2023 will see a escalation as we have seen since 2020.lets not forget ukraine.
@@mojewjewjew4420 That's true I think we'll see the worst of the Ukraine conflict this upcoming spring it looks like it's only getting worse.
One thing to note is that the previous administration neglected the war on Alshabab and that gave them a space to grow. Luckily President Hassan is back and six months in office his administration has already captured more territory than the previous administration .
Thank you. Yes, the Farmaajo administration seemed to have been a very real let down in so many ways.
In fact, I'm even surprised at how six months have changed whole the country
@@abdulahiabukar4621 Hassan is serious am wondering whether alshabab will last in the next 4 years.
Fermajo is the best president Somalia 🇸🇴 ever had! Be honest and get off tribalist mentality. After the fall of Somalia, no leader were in control of all Somalia. Somalia under Fermajo was the most structured, secured and respected country. Do you know he is the only president who left power several hundred of millions dollars to the next president. Somalia politicians under him follow protocol unlike the previous presidents who let everyone do whatever they wanted and act like uncivilized people. If he was in power Somalia 🇸🇴 would have been free of Al Shebab and would have army that could have defended all Somalia. I thought Somalia would change forever but this guy came and disgraced all Somalia
This is the worst leader Somalia 🇸🇴 ever had and he sold all the country resources to highest bidders.
Somali won The war of 1977 between Somalia iyo Ethiopia but Soviet Union Entered the war helping Ethiopia and Somalia decided to pull its troops in order to save them from the supper power forces.
Great documentary. thanks
😂😂😂joke
@@abdulali8738 Thanks for sharing this
Thank you, for this informative and accurate assesment.
Thank you for your well researched and informative video.
Somalia is an extreme example of what happens to a country when religious fanatics take over.
My wife traveled to Uganda straight after the Al-Shabaab attack on the shopping mall in Nairobi, Kenya. I was very worried for her safety at that time. She was there with a team of doctors for humanitarian aid. I read up about Al-Shabaab. My research considered the Nairobi attack took the US completely by surprise. It didn't think Al-Shabaab members had the IQ to organise anything. They must have had help.
IQ? 😂. Religious fanatics?
Thank you. Yes, there was probably a lot of underestimation. But the group has shown itself to be very effective and very deadly across many countries.
Mister with big IQ 😁😁
IQ? You must be joking, the more important question is funding from who and how?
How did this video not get a million views well explained mate you gained a subscriber
TH-cam is a strange beast! :-) But thank you so much for the extremely kind words and the support. I really appreciate it.
First of all, thanks for putting up this is a very nice and articulated report but I picked two points in the report.
1- You only spoke US support and Danab troops, but you haven't mentioned in your report Turkish military equipment such as arms and drones and training the biggest portion of the Somali military.
2- You didn't enlighten where insurgents are getting military support.
other than those points the report is marvelous.
Thanks a lot. Yes, I should have mentioned Turkey directly. As for the insurgency, the link with Al-Qaeda seemed sufficient. But it would indeed be interesting to explore this in more detail.
From my reading, I've noticed that the two common factors in insurgencies are 1) a lack of security outside of urban centers; and 2) a lack of border controls. The US created an effective policy of building forts during its Western expansion which allowed for the protection of civilians, banks, telecommunications, and transport links. The provided stop off points for quick reaction forces as well. Beating an insurgency requires the government to be more reliable and more reachable than their opponents.
The most important factor in modern counter-insurgency is about social and inter-communal conflict, and the perception of the state. People who hate the state will support the people fighting it, and they certainly will not risk their lives and property by informing on or refusing to collaborate/support insurgents for a state they don't trust. States need to be credible, supportive, present, and most importantly genuinely helpful to people. Corrupt local ministers/administrators, exploitative courts, arbitrary violence from local police and militia, and racist/violent rhetoric against minority groups in media all create the perfect ground for insurgency.
Aaron, i'm a puntite from punt, we have no alshabab here, from garowe, to galkayo, to hobyo to xafuun, are all paradise. Google us, you'll see. Alshabab is in the south, coincidence? what does your READING tell you about that?
@@Charlzton I agree, but I think there is often a fundamental mistake in counter-insurgency operations where the focus is on the central government rather than local administration. Allowing locals to govern themselves will always be more attractive than being forced to submit to either force in an insurgent conflict.
You should have focused on the importance of the Turkish military in Somalia. How the Somalian army has been trained by them and the newly purchased Turkish systems was a game changer for the government. US has no impact atm.
Türkei hat bei dem Aufbau der somalischen Armee die wichtigste Rolle überhaupt gespielt nicht USA
Genau. Nächstes mal schreib es auf Englisch.
I have watched and watched this video and to my surprise I can’t get enough of it.
Thank you professor it is interesting and very considerate.
Would have been good to hear about the Somalia’s pre-colonisation history.
Thanks. I’m not really a history channel. My focus is on international relations. I have to keep things short and so I tend to cover the modern aspects.
@@JamesKerLindsay but where is Türkiye ???
The fundamental problem in these wars was identified in the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy books, Ford Prefect, talking about the Krikkit wars said of the Krikkit warriors 'They care, we don't, they win' which played out in Afghanistan recently. People need something positive to believe in if the government is to prevail, e.g. Lenin's (lie of) peace, bread, land.
The days of Al shabaab Alqeada is ending soon
Somali tribes are fighting against terrorist groups
Turkiye is taking huge parts
Turkish trained special forces are doing great jobs
Turkish and America both helped as for drones missions
Our African Brothers in Atmis also they are doing great job
When we make save our land Somalia
We will go Mozambique and Nigeria to fight other terrorists
Africa is our mother
We are going every African land to save African mother
We are also stands with other continents when it comes war against terrorist groups
terrorist doesn't have colour or religion
terrorist doesn't have law or land
are you a somali .coz i think after somalia gets peace it will start war with kenya..thats a sure bet
@@kingsman7965 when you stole other people's house you most know they will attack you when day
You are smart of you know your enemy
Know attacking Kenya is not doing anything
We want to tack back our region peacefully
but future we will attack like how Azerbaijan attacked Armenia
We love peaceful Kenyan people
Jambo
Hakuna matata
@@kingsman7965 yes I'm pure somali how about you?
I hope that after this conflict is gone and the federal government and Somalia has stabilized, they wouldn't try to annex Somaliland with a war or something and actually recognize their independence so that both states can go on their ways
Well thats not possible because a lsrge part of somaliland belongs to pro somalia clans and dont want independence they are in the eastern part
Somalia is in the predicament it's in because of Somaliland, as Somaliland expelled and defeated parasitic fagash forces from Zoomalia. And liberated and reinstated its sovereignty.
Second conflict would be the end of Zoomalia.
The sooner that state ceases to exist. The better for humanity.
The end is near R.I.P Somalia
Somaliland patriot
@@liban7787 Say what you want, but we dhulbahante will never accept Somaliland
@@GeeljirePower
Then you don't accept reality.
There's a place for people like you.
Mental institutions.
Somaliland patriot
@@GeeljirePower I mean if that's the case, they could just negotiate and after Somalia is pacific and stable enough, I don't think anyone would want to support Somalia in their claims because everyone would tired of this war thing and not support Somalia in a conflict with Somaliland
Cool graphics! I usually just listen to these ones but today I watched a bit. Noice!
Cheers Clifford! By the way, I've taken to calling the news article graphics I add into the videos my 'visual footnotes'. I guess it's the academic in me. I feel uncomfortable saying things without having some evidence to support it. :-)
Man, you got the full information about my Somali 🇸🇴 country,
You're incredible keep going till further notice 😍💯💯
The real question is can corrupt politics like Hassan sheik Muhammad and Arab countries like Qatar,UAE and Saudi Arabia be stopped
As a Somali living in Somalia I would like to say that Islamist extremist groups, such as Al-Shabaab, have caused nothing but chaos and devastation. They have extorted millions of dollars from innocent civilians, including some of my own family members, and have shown no remorse for the destruction they have caused.
Unfortunately, the government has not always been able to effectively combat these groups and bring them to justice. In the past, soldiers have been known to engage in violent and corrupt behavior, causing further harm to the Somali people.
However, there is hope on the horizon. The current government appears to be more dedicated and serious about eradicating Al-Shabaab and other extremist groups than previous administrations. They are holding soldiers accountable for their actions and are cracking down on those who give in to Al-Shabaab's demands for money. It is my hope that, with these efforts, the government will be able to weaken Al-Shabaab's power and bring them to the negotiating table for a chance at amnesty and peace.
It is time for the Somali people to be free from the fear and violence caused by these extremist groups. We deserve to live in peace and prosperity, and I am hopeful that this new government will be able to bring about the positive change that we so desperately need.
Nice to hear the perspective of someone living there. One question. Does Al-Shabaab have any popular support among the population? I don't understand why they commit terrorists attacks against civilians. That's the kind of behavior that caused ETA to lose a lot of popular support in Spain.
I hope one day Somalia can be peaceful and prosperous. And I really hope a conflict doesn't break out with Somaliland if the rest of the country finally comes under government control.
Thank you so much for this. I really appreciate it. And I’m very sorry for the personal loss you’ve suffered. It is good to hear that you have the sense that maybe things are changing for the better. Let’s indeed hope! Very best wishes from London.
@@Gonza-lh2vo Al-Shabaab continues to have support among certain minority clans in the southern region of the country. These minority clans have faced numerous massacres at the hands of the majority noble clans, and some feel that the presence of Al-Shabaab has helped to mitigate these atrocities. In addition, Al-Shabaab has also gained some support among young, radicalized groups who feel disillusioned and lack hope for the future. They believe that the establishment of an Islamic Republic paradise is the only way to build a better Somalia. However, it is important to note that Al-Shabaab is slowly losing support among the general population. Many Somalis have witnessed the destructive effects of radical groups in other countries, such as the suffering of Sunnis in Iraq and Syria, and do not want to see their own nation go down a similar path. Overall, it is clear that the support for Al-Shabaab is declining, but it still persists among certain groups within Somalia. Thanks for reading and sorry for the long comment.
@@JamesKerLindsay I hope that you will continue to produce more videos addressing the various issues facing Africa, and specifically the Horn of Africa region. Your in-depth knowledge and expertise on these topics are invaluable and I believe it is important to bring more attention to the challenges and opportunities facing this region.
Thank you for all of your hard work and dedication to sharing your insights with the world.
Best wishes from Marka.
Thanks for your expository analysis
Thank you so much.
I would have like to see a before and after map of the progress made. Otherwise, great video. I appreciate the historical context.
Great content as always it's great hearing news not covered by the main stream media also what the heck is going on in Yemen?
Thanks James. I really appreciate it. I should perhaps try to take another look at Yemen.
@@JamesKerLindsay thanks dude I only ask because Somalia is right across the water from Yemen and both are rogue states, kinda so I was thinking one might be affect the other
You should have atleast mentioned Turkey involvement in Somalia training soldiers, building hospitals and etc
Nice. Thank you
What most western media forget to mention is that they don't mention Turkey's role in rebuilding the military and also it's aerial support during this campaign. Also ATMIS is not taking part in this campaign their role so far is to protect the airport and the green zone.
Soon somali government will be victorious
The role of Turkey of building and equipping Somalia forces is considered a big mistake which is against the UN embargo as these weapons and trained forces are now used to fight Somaliland to disrupt peace and stability. By doing this Turkey is igniting a war that ended in 1991 between Somalia and Somaliland. It also show partiality and lack of consideration which was not expected from great Muslim country. The right thing was to maintain the weapon embargo untill political settlement is reached. Somaliland has solved its internal problems through political process and not by military actions.
Another great video. I''ve seen a few vidoes on the topic over the past couple years including some international travel youtubers that went there on the group. Also saw a video from Vice news. It's chaos and it just seems like every few years I hear about great progress only for nothing big to materialize. Al-Shabaab can be beaten and I think the latest news is a sign of that but realistically, this is probably just the beginning of a long slow decline of Al-Shabaab. I can't imagine Al-Shabaab being a non-important factor in Somalia anytime in the next decade.
@@abdulali8738 have you considered cheesus crust, our lord and savior?
Maybe they're not meant to be a contiguous state. The UN could "de recognize it" turn it into a dotted-line general territory and recommend a return dueling clan enclaves.
Interesting and very detailed 👌. Al shabab is defeated, every sweet game will endure only for a short time, says an Italian proverb.
Thank you!
I'm so glad I came across this channel. I usually avoid these channels as I often find them quite shallow with flashy graphics and little substance so tend to stick to books. This channel is such a breath of fresh air. Great establishment of context, clear explanation of concepts and rich analysis. Keep it up!!
Thank you very much indeed. I really appreciate it. Yes, I don’t do the flashy graphics. But I do hope that I make up for it in other ways. A very warm welcome!
This's extraordinary analytical discussion, truthfully I wondered how you narrated the Somalia its far history and present situation, I hope Somali soldiers and local forces would defeat al-shabab which is mobs from different parts of the world.
Thank you so much. I really appreciate it. Let's indeed hope that the country can find a way to move forward.
A story about Somalia without mentioning Turkiye is undone.
Thank you for another great video! It seems like there's a lot of involvement from the US, the UN, the African Union, but I wonder how other powers such as China, India and Russia, especially with those stories of Somali pirates and all. I'd imagine a failed state in the middle of a strategic trade route is a big risk.
Sounds like propaganda story
From what I remember China and Russia have taken part in anti piracy operations, and China has made infrastructure investments
The World with peace, unity and love,, prof.james thanks for all info news,, watching from berbera somaliland rep,,,,
Isaaq Genocide: Between 1987 and 1989, the regime of Somali dictator Siad Barre massacred an estimated 900,000 members of the Isaaq tribe, the largest clan group in SOMALILAND. At the time, some Isaaqs were fighting for independence, and to eliminate the threat, Barre tried to exterminate all of them. Experts now say there are more than 200 mass graves in Somaliland, most of them in the Valley of Death.
Thas why the Somalilanders hate South Somalia. And never will be part of . One day very soon somaliland will be internationally recognized. Till than come come visit use in somaliland , Somaliland is peaceful and has very kind people ❤️🤍💚
Let’s remember that United States helped Colombia to fight insurgents. Thankfully it changed Colombia’s destiny forever!!
This new and experienced president has shown change and courage to the Somali people
He is doing so much
One of my employees is a refugee here in Australia. His stories are unbelievably harrowing. Extreme violence is the norm. Really sad.
Terrorism can't be defeated by purely a millitary solution but millitary action is part of the solution. Reminder that while ISIS is active they no longer have concentration camps
Can you do a video talking about why so many wars are so hard end? Somalia, Afghanistan, Libya etc are wars that all have simmer for years after the most intense fighting ended yet the war kept going bc they could come to a sustained peace.
Only way for actual peace would be a domestic political unity and sovereignty. Two things that wider global and regional powers do not want and will not accept.
First of all great video as always. But i am a bit disappointed that you didnt mention the turkish role in the region. They are the biggest supporter of both somali and somaliland. They are giving lots of help militarily and humanitary. I was expecting you to mention their role but other than that great vid professor 👍
Perhaps there are other things Turkey is doing, closer to it's borders, that are less charitable and he'd rather not paint it such a positive light.
@Alen Bacco yeah like hosting 4 million refugees within its borders, and going after pkk terrorists that are supported by U.S military. Supporting Ukraine, providing a corridor for the grain to reach the world.
@@stalinsalazar2733 when I posted, I told my wife, watch his going to talk about the PKK. Tell me, do they hate you for your freedom?
You say the UN Security Council reports that Al-Shabaab have "$100m a year in revenues from various sources". I looked up the report to see what sources these are, since surely a very effective way of curtailing their activities would be to cut off their money supply at source.
The UN report is rather vague and states that one major source is "taxation of all aspects of the Somali economy". It seems (from what I read elsewhere) that they are able to extort money from some Somali ports, but does this amount to $100m a year? Is it possible that al-Shabaab can extort money from "all aspects of the Somali economy"? If so, then they possibly have support among the general population and will be more difficult to defeat than if they were just a terrorist organisation without roots.
Thanks. You are absolutely right. It seems like an extraordinary amount. But I can't believe that the UN would have included it if it didn't feel that it was in some way an accurate reflection of what it believes the situation to be. That said, it would be interesting to have a fuller breakdown of what these sources of revenue are. And you are also right about the possibility of wider support. Here again, though, it may be a rather complex picture. It may have started off as popular support in the face of anarchy. Now it may be driven by fear and intimidation, hence the rise of the local militias.
This is what's going on the ground Al shabaab time is over Somalia needs to lift the UN weapon embargo and give more supports from all kinds .
Dear Professor Ker-Lindsay. Could you recommend a few sources/ media outlets that you use to keep an eye on international geopolitics?
Thanks mate 👍
I live in somalia, and alshabab is taking more and more lands every day . The goverment is hopeless and cowards . Soon, we will have no choice but to except their rule, and play it along, just like Afghanistan
Thank you for contributing to the World history. I would like to bring to your attention that there is no where a religion is extremist. You can't say "Islamic extremism" because Islam is an Arabic word which means being obedient and submission to the will of Allah(God). The religion is not a problem. I would therefore suggest using Muslim or Christian or Jews extremism. Saying Islamic extremism is an insult please don't use it.
Islamism does not equal Islam, nobody is saying it does, it misappropriates the good name name of Islam
Man you should make 3 hour long lecture on ottoman empire. 🎉
Don’t challenge me! 😀
@@JamesKerLindsay have you seen prequels?
"there are now signs that it's in retreat": arm tingling.
i wonder what impact this will have on somaliland, if any
Great question. It would be interesting to hear thoughts on this. My sense is probably not a lot, at least in the immediate future.
@@JamesKerLindsay Somaliland will spend less on security.
James, what do you think of Romania and Bulgaria being refused again for Schengen? Austria refused Romania and Netherlands refused Bulgaria. I don't know about Bulgaria, but here in Romania there are protest because the reasons for Austria's refusal are bogus. They argued that they don't want to see again an immigrant crysis as in 2015 despite only 2% of immigrants going through Romania, most went through Bulgaria -> Serbia -> Croatia (Austria also disagrees with Hungary on the wall, at least on paper), and the corruption and safety, which according to the world's corruption index Romania isn't that far from Austria, and when it comes to safety Romania is safer than Austria. Many are suspecting Austria refused out of economic reasons, that Romania recently refused Austria an economic deal that would be very advantageous to Austria, it was so important that the president of Romania went to talk with the CEO of OMV company (Austrian) . Could you please make a video on this?
hey prof. can you please make a video about the insurgency going on in sinai?
Would love a video on Pakistan-Taliban relationship. Especially with border conflicts going on at the moment
👍Video! I as a Somali couldn't do better!
You're spot on that Somalis are a homogeneous but tribal ethnic group!
That's why Isaq clan (Somaliland) wants to use colonial map as a convenient argument to create a "clan country" to rule!
Not because of linguistic cultural or ethnic differences! We will get a rid of Al-shabaab who are nothing but anarchist gangs and reclaim our once great country!
As a Somalilander I differ your Somaliland viewpoint but I enjoy your videos and admire your work.
Thank you so much. I really appreciate it! I really do hope that Somalia can find a way through its difficulties.
@Camellion, firstly, the whole of Africa and the rest of the colonized world are using borders created by European colonizers, Somaliland gained independence in 1960 based on that same border system, and reclaimed its independence in 1990 after a genocide was commited by Somalia on the Somaliland population, particularly the Isaaq clan. Secondly, Somalia is not homogenious as you claim as it gas over 2 millions Bantus citizens and millions more who speak other languages such the May language. Thirdly, vast majority of Somalilanders (+97%) voted for independance, and in democracy, majority rules. Finally, the US has just started the process to establish a military alliance with Somaliland, signalling to Somalia that the ship has sailed and Somaliland is never going to reunite with Somalia.
This was a video about Somalia not other countries where Somalis live. If Somalia was invested in its own recovery since 1991 there might have have been some progress. I believe Somalia's fruitless attempt at exerting itself outside its Italian colonial borders is part of its failure to effect internal change. For 32years nearly 3million of its population are in refugee camps in neighbouring countries from Kenya, Ethiopia, Djibouti and Somaliland.
Imagine when those 3million refugees are reinterpreted into Somalia?
Somaliland is a De Facto state and will one day be a De Jure state a fact Somalia needs to come to terms with. Somalia would be wise to focus its attention on gaining control over it's former Italian colonial territory. It is best to leave Djibouti, Haud-Ethiopia, NFD-Kenya and Somaliland for post-reconcilliation of Somalia.
Focusing on pan-Somalism in East Africa will not excuse Somalia's failures. Moreover how cannot the greatest failure in the history of nationhood claim to champion nationalism? Its oxymoronic.
can you please make another video about Somalia
I definitely think Somalia can get rid of the terrorist organization group, but the problem is Somalia has lot of corruption leaders. The clans are bit divided right now and somaliland the northern state doesn’t want to be part of Somalia anymore. With these problems around I don’t think it will be easier to get rid of the Al shabaab.
I am Somali from the Somali state in Ethiopia, recently Al shabaab entered our region but we defeated them and some of them are in jail they are still being investigate. Our soldiers are in the border line protecting us.
Thanks Prof👍🏻👍🏻
Prof James you are spot on good analysis.
thank you very much for the video, it is high time Somalians get a little break from tragedy. I wonder (truly - I have no idea), isn't the resilience of these terrorist groups ultimately emanates from some level of support of the local population? much like other totalitarian regimes, they are dependent on some level of legitimacy that prevents an uprising (I know that was the case with ISIS).
Al Shabab provide law and order. They also protect minority and marginalised groups by applying rule of law equally irrespective of clan, wealth ect.
If you're a woman, from a minority clan or you're desperately poor being in an Al Shabab controlled region is a bigger guarantor of your safety and your rights to your property and land compared to the govt which is just a formalised version of clan cronyism.
Thanks Rafi. This is a great point. It is so interesting to see how these things can evolve, isn't it? At first, the group may have seemed a way to install some law and order in a life of anarchy under warlords. But as it grew and became more powerful, it became a tyranny. But with its brutality and extortion it was able to keep opposition in check. It is extraordinarily brave of these groups to rise up. What I find interesting are cases like the Taliban in Afghanistan, which are so brutal and yet enjoy resurgent popular support.
@@skp8748 as in many such cases, any way you look at it, someone is going to suffer greatly by the hand of the other's liberator. morally, and even objectively, none need suffer.
Maybe this is the true power of democracy, the fact that loss of elections does not mean the loss of heads.
@@JamesKerLindsay
Somalia had local islamic militias since the collapse of Siad Barre government. We had various Islamic groups like Al-itihad and others. These groups were less extreme and less brutal in their dealings with the people. They later united to form Islamic courts in Mogadishu then moved fast to other parts of Somalia apart from Puntland and Somaliland regions. This led Ethiopia and a new national government formed in Kenya to launch an offensive to retake Mogadishu and other parts of the country from the Islamic courts. Upto now the islamists were moderate and enjoyed large support from local populations who were eagerly awaiting any form of stability and normality in their lives. After the Islamic courts were defeated and replaced by new national government led by Presdent Abdullahi Yusuf; Al-shabab was formed by remnants of Islamic courts group; the more extreme wing, boosted by new members from all over the World. From al-qaida to Afghan trained veterans and youths recruited from neighbouring countries. This internationalized the group as they targeted Kenya and Uganda. It was no longer local problem but international group affiliated with Al-qaida and ISIS. They became brutal and the new recruits implimented new tactics not known in Somalia e.g suicide bombing, use of explosive devices and mass murder targeting mosques, markets, hotels, schools, government institutions e.t.c
In other words, Al-shabab are international designated group like Bokoharam, Al-qaida in Sahel region, ISIS and others. They are not just local extremist group.
They can only be defeated by concerted efforts from both local and international partners. They are filling a vacuum created by bad politics, unstable government and interference by our neighbours who have their own agenda in Somalia.
The current uprising can weaken them significantly but cannot be defeated easily.
Thanks
@@JamesKerLindsay Why do millions of ordinary people favour IS, al-Shabaab, Boko Haram the Taliban etc. over their countries' governments?
There isn't any American troops in Somalia ,Helping Somalia army to fight the terrorist.
Sur...😉
wow man you put it all in 13 minutes that's almost impassible, great job professor. you're well aware of Somalia the past and the present. we'll defeat alshabab soon insha Allah, and make Somalia great again.
Thank you so much. I really appreciate the kind words! It certainly isn’t easy trying to fit so much into short videos like this. And I know that some people will always feel that I missed out some particular piece of information. But I do hope that I can provide a quick explainer to someone who might be new to a topic.
@@JamesKerLindsay yeah you missed some information by detail but you really tell the story and the conclusion which is the important part and I can tell that cause I was born and raised in Mogadishu and still live here good job professor. you did a great job on this video in just 13 minutes, I almost couldn't believe how short the video was and the amount of information you talked about in there.
Somalia wasn’t defeated by Ethiopia, Somalia was defeated by giant nations all together with supporting Ethiopia. Somalia got very close to capture Adisababa the capital city of Ethiopia. Somalia army was the strongest in Africa at that time. Time will come and Somalia 🇸🇴 will get more stronger without dictatorship rule.
Hello James, I am a Somali from the Somali region of Ethiopia. I have been following your videos for a while and I find that they are educational and interesting at the same time. With regard to your episodes on Somalia and also Somaliland, the information you provided is 100% accurate, but there is one point where I disagree with you. And that is that I heard you in this video and in another video saying that the Somali ethnicity in the State of Somalia is 85% and as far as I know the Somali ethnicity is the only ethnicity in Somalia and there is no other ethnicity,(That means somali ethnicity is 100% not 85%) so I wanted to ask you whether this information is accurate and can you give me its source?
The good thing is that the Somali government is making progress. Looks like the citizens are tired of these terrorists and want to help protect their country.
Thanks. I agree. I think that the rise of local opposition seems to be the really important factor here. Let's hope.
where is Türkiye, in this video ?
where is Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ?
where is the military support of Türkiye???
👍👍👍thanks
Thank you for covering this topic, the issue that can the current Somali government can defeat Alshabab, I have doubt as the new president is well know among Somali observers as very corrupt leader, and to see his inner circle are full of very worrying individuals whom many Somalis believe they have collaborating Alshabaab previously,
Another issue is why the 20k strong African Soldiers doing in Somalia? Their last compat was years ago,
Clan Poletics thrives in Somalia- I see no hope if that's not broken
Professor, thanks for being succint and capturing all about Somalia in colonial and post colonila times
Being an Indian, growing Islamic extremism does feel threatening. Our country's security has been fully our own responsibility.
Growing threats from our NW neighbour have increased tensions in the region. Kashmir has been relatively stable compared to past, but can't predict the future.
I believe education & employment are two biggest weapons against terrorism. Because even if you kill the people, you can't kill that ideology.
PS: I wonder what are US interests in the region. Is it only the strategic choke point of horn of Africa? Or is it oil? Or something else?
Thankyou Prof!
Same with Hindu extremists
I’m actually more worried about Hindi vigilantes who want a uniform india and unalive all it’s minorities
Al shabab will takover somalia in 10 years. mark my words folks.
In my estimation less than 10 they will take over, they are against disorganised divided tribal build warlords protected by external forces
gues what even THE al shabab have the tripal division you may not see it but its there and the group have been in the loosing end sence most of there existence
You're views about Somalia 🇸🇴 sounds good, otherwise it's complicated hence foreign intervention plays a significant role by profiting 📈 the war in Somalia 🇸🇴
Why do you not talk about how much Turkish government help somalia🤦? They build hospitals, roads, schools, Airport. They train Somali military and have a huge base in Somalia.
I believe Alshabab can be beaten but it will be short lived because governments troops need $$ to maintain the peace and order
The reason is that. Europeans and western are the real alshabaab
Facts and to the point, I just want to say I am not going to lie to you, at the beginning I was a bit suspicious that this video is going to be another western propaganda video about Somalia but my curiosity made me finish the video and I am happy and more then satisfied with your presentation. thank you sir and keep up the good work, I am subscribing to your channel and eager to watch more political analysis done by your channel
We live with hope and we will reach the goal to defeat Al shabab Somalia are resilient and courageous
Defeating Al-Shabaab is one thing.
Preventing a successor from taking its place is a completely different one.
Thanks. You are absolutely right. It is worth noting that ISIS also has a small presence in the country.
Thanks 🙏 you explain perfectly 👍 the history
I am from Somalia. Prof let me say you are well informed on this matter. However, the tide is going against AS due to popular revolution against them initiated by the tribes. In Somali history all the falls of ideology groups where initiated when they arrogantly start attacking Somali tribes case in point the fall of the Darawish led by Sayid Mohamed Abdulle Hassan 1920. AS arr parasite living among the tribes but once they got powerful they started murdering innocent people near Beledweyn city coz those people were from a tribe that was fighting them in the past months that was the butterfly effect on their fall. They can not control the bush territories without the tribes. This government using that tactics against them and if they keep doing the same in each region they might defeat AS without the participation of ATMIS which so far contributed little in this fight. Well done topnotch analysis Professor 👏 👌
Thank you so much for the kind comment and for the extra information. This is one of the reasons I love making these videos. The excellent contributions from viewers really help to add context that I may have missed or didn’t have time to cover in more detail. Thank you so much. I really appreciate it.
@@JamesKerLindsay Thank you very much professor 🙏