Biden’s Path to Victory Comes in a Minor Polling Error
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 17 มี.ค. 2024
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I live in a red area, honestly I've seen a lot less enthusiasm from the Trump crowd lately. I see more anti Biden stuff than pro Trump. And even the anti Biden stuff is just a fraction of what it's been in years past.
Encouraging news to hear as a sane, science respecting person.
It's hard to be anti-Biden because he's so uncontroversially normal and does a constant stream of decent legislation
I have a small vacation property in a campground. One of those with trailers, campers and golf carts everywhere. Since 2015 it's been nothing but trump flags EVERYWHERE. 4th of July golf cart parade was more of a "who's the biggest trump fan" contest. This past summer however I only saw a few trump 2024 flags maybe 5 or 6 total. It was wild how much drop off there was. Granted I know all of them are still voting for him, the amount of people that aren't sporting his merch anymore was shocking/encouraging.
Yeah a few years ago when I used to drive to Kaufman from Dallas I used to hear a lot of “THem BIDEN boYS aRE ruINING our COUNTRY” all the time but now I barely hear anyone speak of politics.
Both candidates are unpopular, but as surely as Trump is on a bad streak legally and financially, so it’s also true that things are breaking well for Biden. I pray for peace in Gaza, mostly for the children of Gaza and the hostages, but a little bit for Biden, too. If there is, he will have had a major role, I’m sure. Jobs, wages, crime, codifying Roe, our democracy, and an increasingly toxic opponent. Don’t forget, huge advantage in fund raising, too. Just vote people, and get a friend to, as well and we are going to win!
Rs in 2016: THE POLLS ARE FAKE!!!!
Rs in 2024: THE POLLS ARE REAL!!!!
As an R, I still do not trust the polls.
They will lose and say it was stolen. Trump said that in 2016 then won. He said if you say something enough times people will believe it. Weak minded voters
Just remember EVErYONE has an agenda. Pollsters are no different.
Hmmmmm no The polls have almost always lied especially now that it is still early for the elections.
The Polls almost always lie
ARIZONA
became
BLUE
yeah thanks to all the COMMUNISTS invading form California
I joke that it's due to the last laugh of the ghost of John McCain.
they had to pay the cartels alot of money to make it look blue in 2020 tho. I have seen signs that the jews are actually running out of money so they may not be as effective in their rigging this time. Plus they are dealing with Palestine at the same time.
Arizona did some fishy crap with Kari lake
TH-cam can't handle the truth
polls are answered by people who largely mindlessly click on boxes. To go out and vote, to think about it, to read the manifesto, the programs, that's what happens on election week. That is pretty much different.
Trumpers reading about policy, much less reading at all!? Now that's a funny joke!
@thorodinson8712, does trump even have a manifesto? It would literally be, Deportation, dictatorship, and death to Democracy.
This was before Agent Orange threatened us all with a bloodbath.
And couldn’t post a bond for his appeal.
People say it was out of context but his full quote said a bloodbath for the country. Probably wasn’t a call for violence, but not a good look.
I'm sorry hun but vote red to save America from communism.
@@Yellowolfgaming101 "People say it was out of context but"
But they are lying. There's no ambiguity. He's threatening civil war/insurrection, which he tried last time, too. Trump is an idiot in most things, but he understands how his base will hear his words.
he's only going to get more deranged
NEVADA BECAME BLUE
IN 2020 to CURRENT
Nevada is basically a bellwether with the exception of 2016
yeah thanks to all the COMMUNISTS invading form California
Nevada . . . Has always been blue
Reid machine and all of that. I think outside of 2022s gouvernors race the last time it went red was 2004.
It didn't become blue it is blue. If anything it's becoming purple going off Clark County trends.
@@James.99so what was off in 2016? The notes on the bell or the weather?
@@charlesbaldo this is like claiming ohio is a belweather.
Its only exception was 2020.
Iowa doesnt count because it was off in 2018 as well and 2022 doesnt count because it was a narrow margin and the house was also narrow a margin.
I don't answer polls by either party. And I am constantly being asked for donations by the Trump organization.
But I will be there on Election Day and I will vote blue for every candidate. No one running under the Republican label is safe for our country anymore.
And frankly Trump took over the RNC Like A Parasite from within and it's no longer the Republican party.
I keep getting RNC texts from North Carolina. I live in NH lmaoooo They are so desperate
Its the National Socialist Party of Germany ATM (1936-1945 ofc)
lol I have never voted red, ever, but I’m a younger white male that is into redneck shit. So naturally I get bombarded with calls and mail and blah blah blah blah blah. Will never answer a poll for either party, it’s just a waste of time.
@spektermusic yes. We are at about 1936. Time to nip this in the bud.
Good luck you pos....@@macmcleod1188
Polls will consistently underestimate Democrats because they have a major personality difference. Republicans have decided already how they will vote even in elections that aren't yet announced. Democrats tend to make their decision within the last week or so of the election, so when the poll is taken, they will say they're undecided, but if things look important in the last weeks of the election, they'll vote.
That comes and goes. I will never forget that A+ ABC news poll before the 2020 election that had Biden up 17 points in Wisconsin.
@@markellzey1531In all fairness, Wisconsin was the most gerrymandered state
@@nathanlevesque7812gerrymandering doesn’t affect the presidential election.
I’m absolutely rock solid on voting for Biden.
In 2020 I was just voting against trump.
Now I think Biden has been the most consequential president in my lifetime.
@@docinparadise wtf
I just dont see arizona going red, I think itll go for biden again
I know my vote will. I also know alot of old school republicans who get even less motivated to vote the more infested the party is with magats
There is a non-zero percent chance that Trump is gonna talk chit about McCain again. That certainly won't help his chances! 😁
I don’t think Arizona is a done deal for either of them, but… recent events in Arizona suggests a trend that combined with putting abortion on its ballot and Kari Lake could be the storm that makes it stay blue, though I doubt it would be by much at the presidential level.
I wouldn’t count on it going to Biden, but that’s certainly within the realm of possibility
@@derekrequiem4359Trump would open his mouth to talk bad on the McCains when coming to Campaign in Arizona for himself and Kari Lake... Trump coming on campaigning in Arizona it just comes out help Biden.....
Texas rebounded from leaning Republican to Likely Republican, Due to all the trumpers moving from California to Texas, SAD.
I don’t know about that they are rumores running around on Twitter republicans are starting to panic about Texas also ted Cruz is worried republicans think that trump in ted Cruz could lose Texas
Hispanics moving to the right also
@@zr5828 Why are they shifting. Arent GOP working against their interest? Like immigration? Is it just cuz of religion like Hispanics are a highly religious Catholic group.
@@92Rafay Hispanics are generally more conservative when it comes to beliefs and the democrats are losing their hold on many minority communities due to people being fed up with their policies, so those combined factors are causing it
Texas will go red on presidential level, though Cruz better watch out, he is not popular.
Given what I know from my PhD in Statistics, ALL polls have HUGE issues with a factor called stratification of demographics. Polls can almost never estimate each demog-groups' voting preference properly, precisely because the strata themselves evolve with time in size and spread across the country, one reason being people relocating. Historical info is heavily used in these polls, which are almost always outdated enough to skew polls. Case in point, the stratum of "no college degree voters" was poorly estimated using out-of-touch historical data from the "Blue Wall", specifically Michigan, in 2016, which helped Trump. Unless we poll millions of people in ALL battleground states, polls are NOT trustworthy enough to predict electoral college victory. When polls work well, its a coincidence, not a statistically guaranteed consequence.
Great stuff! I think the Blue Wall reflected a partnership between Labor, and the Baby Boom generation. Trump has undercut support for Democrats in both groups, and that has created fluidity where there was seeming solidity. That’s where we find ourselves now.
I had never thought of this
I was thinking that the pollsters polling methodology was out-of-date, as people's behavioral patterns change of over time, and those patterns impact on the probability of their selection for being interviewed for the poll.
Vote blue.....
I know right? how else are we going to keep the borders opened?
@@DudeTastic13 If the Rs think that the so-called "border crisis" can wait until after November, then clearly they don't think that it's an emergency. 😉
@@DudeTastic13
@DudeTastic13 If the Rs think that the so-called "b0rder cr!sis" can wait until after November, then clearly they don't think that it's an emergency. 😉
@@DudeTastic13Which party advanced a border control bill this session? Which one voted it down?
@@DudeTastic13
If the Rs think that this so-called "crisis" can wait until after November, then clearly they don't think that it's an emergency. 😉
I love these videos, but at the same time I think it's crazy we're even spending this much time talking about an election that's still eight months away in America. And that's how it's always been. That being said, I would take all polls with a grain of salt. Trump is not becoming more popular, and we've seen the results of striking down Roe v Wade. Bodily autonomy is not just a social issue, it is an economic issue too.
We talk about this election so much so soon because we know that, regardless of the outcome, it is likely to change the course of this country. And not just at the presidential level, but also House, Senate, and state and local elections.
Do you think that’s an indication of why Trump is up, because people like you are just getting on with their lives and will vote blue when the election is close whereas the Trump cult is a red voters life
Incumbents get on average a 3.1% boost compared to polls. Trump himself got a 4% boost from the 2020 polling. This combined with the way polls have underestimated Democrats in special elections and midterm elections by 4.5%, its totally possible.
That said, he needs to do better. And Trump trials need to happen.
do you have a source on that 3.1% boost? I don't doubt what you're saying, I'm just wondering where you got the information.
Abortion Healthcare is an Economic Issue!!!!!
I dont disagree but abortion is much more about child abuse and child exploitation. They are attacking abortion, IVF, and contraception all at the same time. While at the same time slandering younger generations as weak and illiterate. With no sympathy for the younger generations and more and more children being born to desperate circumstances, it allows people to manipulat those struggling families for cheap labor while also addressing the low birth rate issue. Now the low birthrate could be solved with immigration or investing in younger americans futures but we all know what they think about those "illegal aliens" and we all know that they percieve the government taking from the rich and giving to the poor as communism. Its only capitalism when you take from the poor and give to the rich.
Punish the GOP for the SCOTUS decision.
It is. The child that you can't afford to raise, or can't care for because it has serious medical issues is the child that keeps you in poverty...... or puts you in poverty.......
And, a human rights issue
Last I checked it's around ~250k til their 18
Keep up the great work!
Bro, you need to sleep once in a blue moon. Great work as always, LTE.
Edit: Recent-ish subscriber here. LTE has put out a lot of videos I've enjoyed lately. Mad respect to him is all I meant.
I mean he has no girlfriend or a life, what do you expect him to do?
@@zr5828 Ouch...
@@zr5828 at least he's not REP who's an incel that has gotten every election cycle wrong since he started his channel 🤣🤣🤣
Because he makes a post you don't agree with you act as immature as dementia don, go figure.
@@zr5828dude's creating content, adding to the zeitgeist. ppl be watching his stuff. who are you again? be nice.
I also can't imagine a world that Michigan votes for trump this time.
Biden-Harris 2024 Blue 2024
I like polling, but people always forget the margin of error. A poll showing 50-50 split with a 3% margin of error means it could be 47-53 or 53-47 equally as likely. A 6 point swing is massive. Some of the polls you show at the 5min mark have a margin of error of 4.6 which could be a 9.2 point swing! When 46-54 is just as likely as 50-50 or 54-46 all you can get from it is its either close or a landslide for one side and someone will win but who knows who lol.
A poll can't be wrong within the margin of error. I don't think you know what margin of error means. The entire margin of error is the prediction. A polling average is a statistical model with a range not a crystal ball.
Maybe the polling is off, maybe it's not. VOTE regardless.
I wish those thousands of laborers he didn’t pay over the years who worked for him and contracted on his properties would come out now with a class action lawsuit. Blue collar workers- electricians, construction workers, HVAC, plumbers, etc.
I wonder why?
BIDEN 2024 FOR DEMOCRACY
Got to bring gas prices back to 1.90-2.10 if you want to be re elected
@@solidsnake8331or be pro democracy and anti rape
@@solidsnake8331 Got to bring jobs back to America if you want to be reelected
I would be really surprised if the polls stayed the same until election day and there were no major scandals or economic crises under Biden. If they did stay this favorable to Trump I would be skeptical of how accurate they are.
nah keep underestimating the advantage the democracy-respecting candidate has....That's how you scare people into voting against the tyrant and for his main rival.
I'm not worried who the voters want, I'm worried about who Diebold wants
My understanding is that polls are not accurate until closer to the election… usually just after Memorial Day at the latest and mid-summer at the earliest.
That said, Democrats should campaign as if they are behind and take nothing for granted.
Thank you for concisely summarizing what I’ve been telling people for a year and a half!
I think it is because Democratic and Independent voters tend to be much less single issue voters compared to Republicans, which makes one group *theoretically* much more predictable than the other in such polling.
President Biden 2024! 🙏💙
how exactly do they collect info in polls? phone call? do they account for the ratio that republicans might be a more frequent users of mobile phones?
I participated in a Sienna poll before the 2020 election. They contacted me by phone.
Thanks, Ethan, for giving the Democrats another reason why a second Trump term would spell doom for the United States.
You mean trumps third term..... he won in 2020 but buden stole it
Does anyone know the main reasons, why the pollsters measured the democrats so low in 2022? (I'm from Europe, but I'm curious.. :D)
Polls are samples of the population to which pollsters are hopeful they are sufficiently representative of the population. Since it's in practice impossible to achieve perfect accuracy 100% of the time, pollsters assign confidence intervals, usually 95%, to their polls to create a margin of error. When actual results differ from polled responses by an amount outside of the MoE, the polling methodology needs improvement (sample size, distribution of the sampled population, wording of questions, etc.), or people changed their mind between the time they were polled and the time they actually voted (or they were polled as likely/registered voters but didn't vote), or both.
One study found that, out of 1000 respondents for a 2020 poll that showed Biden winning by 12 points, if 38 respondents had a different opinion, that lead would've been shifted to just 4 points. It doesn't take a lot of people to massively influence polling numbers.
The other thing to keep in mind is that national polls (as opposed to state-specific polling) will only measure popular vote, they have no methodology to account for electoral votes.
@@SunnySydeRamsay Thanks for the long answer.
Overcorrection. Plls underestimated Rs in 2016 and 2020, so they overcorrected = underestimated Ds in 2022.
Underestimated white college grad and youth turnout.
There are 2 main reasons from what I've seen:
1. Money -- if the race is made out to be close, it generates more interest and ad revenue for the entity reporting. This leads to deliberate use of skewed/ misleading questions if not outright manipulation of results.
2. Polling methods have been outdated for nearly 2 decades and have only gotten worse over time. Younger generations don't answer random anonymous contacts like older generations do, so results skew conservative. Open online polling is impossible thanks to bots and trolls.
The bottom line is that polls are largely garbage, and if we want a better country, we need to make the effort to be informed and we'd better show up on voting day, polls be damned.
It’s worth restating that any lead within the margin of error is by definition not a real lead. The media constantly overlooks this.
Oh no this news is very troubling
Allen Lichtman hasn’t made his call, but right now he says the lights are green for Sleepy Joe. He’s been right every election since 1984.
Usually he makes his prediction known a few months before the November presidential election
2000 he was wrong and his model doesn’t work as well when the country becomes more partisan divided. His model is based on statistics but Americans view the economy as bad even when it’s good. Just keep that second part in mind
@@jimmyb7479 In defense of Lichtman's model - he argued that Gore was the rightful winner in 2000, which he predicted. Gore only lost because of improper vote counting in Florida. He stopped predicting the popular vote afterwards.
And I trust Professor Lichtman more than any poll. The guy's good...very good. Using his model, I'm ready to make my call for 2024...
1. Midterm Gains - The Dems lost seats in the 2022 midterms, key is FALSE. (1-0 Trump)
2. No Primary Contest - Biden is on track to win more than two-thirds of total delegates, key is TRUE. (1-1)
3. Incumbency - Biden, the incumbent, is seeking re-election; key is TRUE. (2-1 Biden)
4. No Third Party - West and Kennedy are currently polling less than 10%, key is TRUE. (3-1 Biden)
5. Strong Short-Term Economy - It's too late into the election year for there to be 2 straight quarters of negative GDP growth, Key is TRUE. (4-1 Biden)
6. Strong Long-Term Economy - It's highly unlikely the economy will plunge into deep recession by the election. Key is TRUE. (5-1 Biden)
7. Major Policy Change - From his infrastructure plan to reducing prescription costs and COVID relief, Biden has created major policy that has changed the course of the nation. Key is TRUE. (6-1 Biden)
8. No Social Unrest - Yes, there have been protests over Israel-Hamas; but the protests have been for the most part peaceful. Key is TRUE. (7-1 Biden)
9. No Scandal - As opposed to the bipartisan recognition of Trump's scandals, the Hunter Biden deal was the result of partisan politics, which the American public tends to ignore; key is TRUE. (That's 8-1 Biden; that's enough, Biden wins)
10. No Foreign/Military Failure - The Afghan withdrawl was bad optics, but mostly successful. Key is TRUE. (9-1 Biden)
11. Foreign/Military Success - The response to the war in Ukraine right now has been okay, but this is a Lean True now. We'll see if the stalemate holds or if Ukraine makes gains before the election. (10-1 Biden)
12. Charismatic Incumbent - While Biden is a decent human being with a great sense of empathy, he is not charismatic by any stretch of the imagine. This key is FALSE. (10-2 Biden)
13. Uncharismatic Challenger - Lichtman said so himself. While Trump is a great showman, he only appeals to a narrow slice of the American public. Key is TRUE. (11-2 Biden)
Biden wins re-election with 11 keys.
Litchman’s 13-factor model is based on objective fact - not on what people think. A candidate is either the current President, or he isn’t. The economy is either growing by 2+ percent year over year, or it isn’t, etc. Right now at least SIX of his 13 would have to flip against Biden for Trump to win. No factor is ambiguous, subjective, or unknown.
- Stop referring to that defendant as "president..."!!
- This is the 're-match' between two current or former presidents since 1912 (TR v Taft) rather than 1956.
- AZ and even NV has had quite a few transplants from the Midwest, those who used to live in MI and nearby places. They seem more likely to go to the D column than GA or NC.
This rematch is closer to a repeat of 1892. Teddy Roosevelt did not lose the 1908 election to Taft, he just was disappointed with how Taft governed after putting so much faith into him in 1908. Grover Cleveland, on the other hand, had lost the electoral college (but not the popular vote) to Benjamin Harrison in 1888, and thus he was facing the incumbent four years after losing to that incumbent, which is the exact scenario we are in now, except that Trump lost the popular vote twice at this point.
California transplants as well.
wouldn't it be 1900, 1956 and now 2024?
@@onomatopoeia162003 Neither 1900 nor 1956 were a rematch of a former president vs the incumbent. They were merely a case of “both ran for an open seat, then four years later the loser ran against the now-incumbent.” 1828 is another case of the above example, as it was a Jackson vs Adams rematch after the infamous contingent election from 1824 that gave Adams the presidency. The 1800 election also counts as that type, as Jefferson lost to Adams in 1796 (in a contest for the open seat), then came back four years later to defeat him, along with the 1840 election (Van Buren defeated Harrison in 1836 to succceed Jackson, and Harrison came back four years later to defeat him).
That’s five of the past ones, 1848 (with Martin Van Buren under the “Free Soil Party”), 1912 (Roosevelt running 3rd party) and 1856 (Millard Fillmore running as a 3rd party) are the examples of “former president runs for another term some time after leaving the office, but not against the guy who defeated him (or in the case of Roosevelt, he had not been defeated yet),” and…
that leaves 1892 as I previously stated, which for over a hundred years had been the only time the two major contenders were the incumbent and the predessor, but here we are, and history repeated itself.
@@onomatopoeia162003 .....plus 1912 (×2) - R nomination _and_ general election (Taft v "Teddy" R 🗳
Yeah, the 2am "Polling Error". Gimme a break
When it comes to voting time, voters' guts will tell them to do the right thing. They will choose the better one of the two evils. But I have to say that you have done an amazing job in understanding poling. Mit Romney led in poling over Obama. Obama won.
So this is just the inverse of Red Eagle Politics now
who? Is that some new channel?
Yes, but, more formal, better contexted, better cadence, better messaging and a better format.
@@NickHernandez2024 okay I looked at his most recent video which is helpfully about a topic already covered here for some comparison, and it's certainly a shift in messaging but definitely not format. Instead of citing articles on the subject it repeatedly cites his own twitter ("Source: Trust me Bro"). It's an optimistic take on new RNC leadership without mentioning any policy changes (like where RNC donations will be going now). No mention of the mass layoffs. Not a single mention of Senate races and the awkward possibility that Trump may end up in the white house with a blue House and Blue Senate. Then some culture war nonsense about black lives matter.
@@ZappBranniglenn By "it" do you mean Ethan??
@@ZappBranniglenn are you saying ethan cites his own twitter? I dont remember him doing that.
Its not surprising at all. Polling is going to continue to narrow as we get closer to election day.
well your saliva problem has gotten much better..I'm glad 😊..keep up your good work 👏
I don't know anyone that says they are voting for Trump. All the Republicans I know don't want him. Of note: I live in a district where the Republican representative voted for his impeachment.
Cool. If only we could get more politicians on board with replacing the former presidents of both parties. I don’t want to see a matchup between two old farts, both who shouldn’t be in the seat, and I know many people don’t want to see that either.
Yeah. I'm going to hold my nose and close my mouth and vote Biden (can't stand Trump and his "values"). Idk where it became acceptable from both parties to offer mummies for candidates. @@I_like_Plants130
@@I_like_Plants130I didnt want to see it either, but this is where we are. If my choice is going to be some old due with speech issues or some old dude who tried to hide classified documents, im voting for the old dude with speech issues.
I know a lot of Democrats that have abandoned the party in the past year and said they are going to vote Trump, my age too (in my mid 20s)
I'm voting for trump for the 3rd time...
I think Michigan is blue solid.
I have to agree after their gubernatorial election and some key decisions in 2022 I think they’ll be blue for some time
Though I am a resident of the mitten state perhaps I’m too close to see the bigger picture but I don’t think so
As a Michigander myself, I think Michigan definitely goes blue this November, but I think it's closer than 2020. Maybe Biden wins by 2 points instead of 3. Mostly because of Dearborn.
Maybe because your retard?
I'd disagree but that's just due to me being Jewish I see alot of discontent among a usually solid dem voting block over his handling of the Hamas war and I also hear about Arab Americans being similarly discontent.
He needs both Semitic voting blocks behind him for 2024 alongside maxed black turnout in Detroit to counteract third party spoilers.
My theory is that polarization has a direct effect on the volatility and precision of polls. I would not be at all surprised to see them wildly inaccurate again.
“Slight polling error: Mensheviks will win in October!”
May I kindly request a series of videos that tell democrats they will lose unless they show up in record numbers?
Thanks
THIS!!!!! Pin this comment. This needs to be the new strategy.
why is wisconsin shaped like that.........
You can’t use midterm, election results to extrapolate to a presidential election. They’re completely different things especially when you take into the very low turnout in midterm elections. It’s mostly driven by who actually shows up to vote and that’s what happened in 2022 Roe v. Wade was eliminated and Democrats turned out
yea you're right. I'm afraid the Republicans will win.
Of course we can, because the issues that resulted in the dems midterm showing are still very contentious today.
The Dobbs decision will still have an effect on both turnout and what we'll likely see in polling data.
By that same logic, we cant use any past election to assess what future elections will look like because they're all different.
Oh lord. This isn't comforting in the least bit.
Wonder how RFK Jr will change those numbers. He is a out to qualify in a couple of those swing states
His vote total PLUS that of No Labels - if the latter even gets going - will be about 3.5%, and about evenly split between potential Trump and Biden voters, so of no net effect on the outcome.
@@roberthaworth8991 will have a affect if he can win a state or 2 and keep anyone from getting 270. I think he has a chance to do that and throw it into the house
Oh, a "pollong error" is going to give biden the win this time...🙄🙄🙄
Interesting thoughts on a supreme court justice retiring... that would be shocking. Who are you thinking?
Woah that map is accurate
On the one hand, it is concerning that trump still has so much momentum in the polls after everything. On the other hand, every day his leads seem weaker and so does he. He's getting more and more desperate over his court cases and while he probably will succeed in pushing a few past the election his options are thankfully running out on at least some of them. Plus, he's gotta pay those fines.
The reason the Republicans did better than polling was bc beneath the churning sea of annual vibes are the tectonic plates of generational cultural change. The older generations are giving way to the younger. It was an uphill battle for the Democrats for ~15 years, pushing against the tide. But we’ve summited the hill and are now descending the other side, the current now moving in our favor. (My apologies for stacking too many geological metaphors)
Old GOP retirements are up massively at the moment. The Magas who will replace them are clueless with regards to money, finance, and long term planning. Should be interesting.
Arizona and Nevada are now red
Latino registrants are up 25% in both places since 2016, and Latinos tend to vote Dem, so no, they’re not reliably red.
In addition, depending on the swing state, 2-5% of Trump’s base (non-college Whites) have died off since 2016, compounding the effect of the numerical increase in Latinos.
You said that about the 22 election in the Republicans got slapped
We sure did
Quick question: what are the odds that North Carolina *just slightly* turning blue?
Zero
All the dems need is to actually support their candidate
I trust Michael Moore's predictions. He knows his game.
Well let's be honest, a lot of 2016 and 2020 R voters died of old age and covid.
Darwin prizes.
Stop it youtube... I'm allowed to speak the truth
My comment is gone again😂😂😂😂
The abortion issue, IMO, most affects suburban white women ---
who, in the past, were very Republican.
Even if only 5% vote Dem because of it,
that could easily defeat Republicans in tight races.
So, WI, MI, PA, GA, AZ, and NV will likely go blue, IMO.
Biden just has to run a good campaign and target the right voters. I can’t imagine that people want to go back to the madness of having Trump in office.
And the current administration is doing well? Youre being lied to. The economy is not growing. Dont you see the funding cuts?
you forget how short the memory of American voters is
I can't imagine how stupid and ignorant a person would have to be to want things to continue status quo.
@@corpsecoder_nw6746 Honestly, that's not really the issue (memory or the original comment's mention of chaos during Trump's first term). Trump's first term wasn't even as chaotic as his rhetoric is now. That, and the Republicans seriously caught the car with _Dobbs_ and Democrats have been on a monstrous winning streak ever since.
The memory is not what matters. Trump constantly threatening more chaos right now, along with widespread terror about losing reproductive freedom, matter a lot more than just remembering what the 2016 to 2020 term was like.
It's not a repeat of Trump's first term that most people are afraid of. Most of us would survive a repeat of Trump's incompetence in his first term and a Democrat would almost certainly win in 2028. The real fear is of what he and the far-right have ready to go from day one should he win in November, and whether we would even have a real election in 2028 to begin with.
@@1vmxracer The status quo is a whole lot better than supporting a corrupt candidate who is seeking absolute immunity from his multiple charges for acts taken before, during and after his presidency. I’m not voting for someone who has no semblance of respect for the truth, facts or reality.
Scratch off Michigan, we can all thank Isreal for that
I think that when push comes to shove in November, those uncommitteds will fall in line with Biden. We got Michigan.
There are many more union members than Arab-Americans in Mi, and very few voters are both, so MI will likely go Blue.
gunna mentally prepare myself for a Trump victory regardless
"Why are you not talking about the Black American Votes in Chicago?"
Because there is zero chance in HELL that Chicago or IL for that matter will go red. But….keep that red hope and cope…:alive. I guess.
@@rtweeddancy7155 "How do you know this since you can tell the future?"
@@monekibapearson5706 LMAO!!!!🤣
@@monekibapearson5706With that logic we could say California is going to go red and Texas will go blue.
States RARELY go from safe red/blue to their opposing side in a single election.
Let’s not forget that Clinton was up in the polls in 2016 and lost so polls don’t mean anything like that anymore.
nah this is how we scare the independents into thinking "oh the dictator might come back with his cult, we better vote"
I'm glad Clinton lost the election in 2016.... she was crooked
Dammit youtube.😂😂😂
Vote for Biden Democrat
What we need to do is take an aggregate of the prediction videos. The comments All sound the same. The only thing different is whether they say Biden or Trump
Dude you serious need to pay attention you have michigan as red for instance, but evertything they dont last few years has been voting blue, thee problem with each polls is they polls for a small groujp of people from different areas.. what someone in detroit michigan for instance may be diffderent from someone in grand rapids mi. this applies city to city state to state, that is why is easier to see how the election is going based on how people are saying and feeling instead of polls.....
I feel like relying on the absolute limit of a margin of error for your campaign’s hopes is just coping
The Michigan Republican party is going to deliver the state for Biden
Same for the Arizona Republican party too, hopefully! 🤞
trump leads biden in michigan
@@ILovePizzaAndKFC99502R Senate candidates lead D Senate candidates in 2022, too.
@@ILovePizzaAndKFC99502 the republican party in Michigan is a shit show. State parties do a lot. Dems won the trifecta in Michigan.
Beside Biden has 9 of the 13 keys to the White House. He's going to crush trump. Polls are mostly meaningless at this point
@@ILovePizzaAndKFC99502 did you see the lunatic running for governor in NC? Hes going to deliver NC for Dems
😂
Your father is really really rich not my $5
Request for Trump biggest victory since Reagan w/ small poll error
IVF will also help the democrats
Sorry I've don't believe this 🥴🥴🥴
Just keep bringing up the repeal of Roe, and play Trump bragging that he got it done. Game. Set. Match. Biden.
It will be a scary 4 years under sleepy joe
This is borderline harassment..
Stop removing my posts
Jesus christ 😂😂😂😂😂
Vote blue like we’re 10 points behind
ALL POLLS ARE RUSSIAN POLLING
Do not vote by polls. Vote with intelligence and who will be the one for your benefit, the country and your family and it is not trump for me. I am voting for Biden but the next republican may be the better choice for my pick. If Geoff Duncan from Georgia and Liz Cheney were on on the ballot I would have a tough decision but Biden is the best choice for me now.
First
It shouldn't be this close. If only the educated and higher IQ could vote.
This dudes channel sounds like so much cope but he was right in 2022 tho lmao
Biden 2024
Women will decide 2024, and that favors Dems. Keep the faith, progressives!
I want to......but I'm not holding out any hope. People don't remember stuff from long ago....if they did, Trump would've never won office. If people held on to principles, we wouldn't be here. Red wave incoming in November. Spread the fear......everywhere, especially in Oakland County, Michigan, in Allegheny County, PA. Tell the Haley voters that voting for Trump and then pestering their reps and senators for impeachment isn't gonna work because Trump holds all of their ballsacks in his hands.
Dei Gewackel. Man versteht nix
If polls don’t work why do we watch your channel bro.
Ethan needs a hit of copium.
Daily cope video...
As long as the water mains don't break again Trump should win...
Vote red!
First comment
Never
Nice made-up map Democrat. Of course you HAD TO MAKE SURE your blue little candidate won NO MATTER WHAT. So PREDICTABLE.
It should be called a nonconsecutive reelection for Trump; we shouldn’t confuse people about who’s really the president.
I don’t know not 1 black person who’s been asked how they’d vote but I see all over that a large amount of blavk people will vote for Trump. Who the hell are they asking?
This sounds like copium
Biden is so screwed.
You do realize saying " Welcome back to today's video" doesn't make sense. It implies people were already here and now are back?
Why does it even matter? It’s just an intro.
He always says that
He always says that. Goes back to about...I wanna say 2017-18.
@@badpiggies988 exactly and it doesn't make any sense
@@MadMikeSportsYT well it still doesn't make any sense