I appreciate you trying to convince your audience that they can have all three lines trending upwards, in particular encouraging people to just over bluff, you’re doing gods work here insuring a steady upward trickle of money
One very small thing, that i dont understand and that occurs regularly in yours and hungryhorse content, is the all in overbet jam "size". For example - you jammed in the first hand 94 bb onto a 34 bb pot as a bluff. What is the difference to an 80bb bet or maybe 85bb bet when you are bluffing and all in jamming for value? I would consider the fold equity similiar, if not higher, the possibility to be rebluffed for this size is non-existant on lower stakes and i don´t see any other reason except balancing, which as we all knowv - shouldn´t also be a consideration, if you don´t play vs the same (solid) ppl all the time... So whats your reasoning for not saving 10-15bb in these spots? The only reason would be, that someone could pick up on that, but in big low stake fields?!?
I just checked the first hand in GTO wizard, you literally can not over bluff with this line. Every single As hand is suppose to jam river. Also A4o with the 4 of spades also jams. This is starting to explain my terrible red line I would have bluffed this at 50% frequency at best, and probably checked turn too often as well. Great video thank you.
Great video thanks Pete. I was thinking another reason for bad red (and blue) lines is not going thin enough for value. If you could make something like this with a few spots where we are probably losing value that would be really helpful :)
Absolutely. Not building big enough pots or value-betting thinly enough in spots where low absolute hand strength hands are actually very high equity due to board texture and action sequence is a common leak that I see.
That's exactly what partypoker hand review wizard has been telling me all the time... that I'm weak, with a low agression factor... in one session I tried to fix this by being agressive all streets... (no limp, raise, 3-bet, 4-bet, check-raise, raising more than calling...) and started to pick up a lot of pots without showdown... then i received messages saying: "that's the preflop agression I was talking about..." they compliment small/medium pots that were taking down without showdown....and complete ignores when I win over 100bbs pots, but the hand was very standard... which makes me think where the winrate comes from... it's not when you win an obvious hand like AA vs KK.... like losing by having your bluff called or winning with the best hand is something you expect all players to experience... but winning a lot of those pots that you didn't mean to win at first glance is what makes the difference... so I realize that the hugest leak is not what you lose, but what you don't win for not being agressive enough... everybody will lose, but you can recover... the bigger problem is not allowing yourself to win what you should... it's like going to a war and not shooting your gun... but we aren't naturally wired for that... that's why tilt is always present even when I'm winning... it's what pushes me out of the comfort zone!
My red line is positive but my blue line is getting crushed (getting better over last 20k hands or so though). How can I tell if this is because I'm a calling station or if I'm being over-aggressive in bad spots?
You’re probably failing to make mandatory folds (folding in spots that are very underbluffed) and making bad bets and raises where more passive lines are better. It’s very hard to diagnose fully without a proper look at your game though.
For the KQ, is delay xraising the turn an option ? They can put money with bluffs or low one pairs and still fold to agression. The plan is to maybe have an overbet jam snatch cbet range on the river if they check again the turn
I am a winning player with a good red line. I work on my mental game all the time; properly bankrolled, meditate every morning, short sessions, calm music, etc. Nonetheless, I would say 5 out of 5 to some degree. Not a large degree. But some degree. And I know the quality of my mental game is a big part of my success when I play well. I have a name for that voice that tells me the b.s. that gets me in trouble, Koozer. The quieter Koozer is, the better my decision-making.
Quick question, are these bluffs plays that are supposed to make profit on their own, or is the point just to have better EV than checking/giving up those spots every time?
in the first hand i would probably not get the opportunity to bluff the river because i am not betting the turn - my sim says i should be bluffing AQo with Qs but not As - is the turn bet some kind of an exploit or do i have bad sims?
"if you need villain to fold here to validate your play...you are screwed" Sounds very basic, but actually is probably more important then the theory stuff (at some lvl). Thank you for another great vid!
I think the real fruit lies in answering the question of whether pool overfolds or underfolds on certain types of river and I would need to do some deeper analysis to answer this.
I dont care at all if I get called by strong hands but I find it really frustrating when I consistently get called by middle pair. I'm either not choosing the right sizing or not choosing the right board textures.
Or maybe it just didn’t work this time? Sometimes you run into someone who doesn’t like folding or isn’t in the mood to fold. By assuming these are the wrong spots you’re already in danger of committing the fallacy of ‘Ouch I should never have’ which I talk about in Poker Therapy.
@CarrotCornerPoker - I've watched all of your videos and agree 100% with your points on irrational/illogical thinking and flawed mindsets, so that definitely comes into my thinking when I assess a play I made. However, I know you're also not saying that we shouldn't evaluate the spots we're picking, otherwise we could just "over calibrate" (as you say), mindlessly triple barrel bluff every spot and kid ourselves it's fine. I need to take your course, thats for sure! It's next on my to-do list!
Actually, to add to the above...my problem is I'm not able to properly evaluate yet whether my plays are objectively 'good" or 'bad' in certain spots. Hence why I need to improve my theory!
Hi Pete how much is your coaching? I am a 200NL grinder, I am using heavily MDA and my theory knowledge is fine but your knowledge of theory far outweighs mine.
My red line is positive and my blue line is positive so I must be doing something right. I've found that some players I play with regularly fish or reg seem to overcorrect. I think opponents adjust incorrectly by either waiting for strong hands letting me run them over or just overcalling every spot even the ones that are underbluffed.
This is pretty good content. Thanks Personally basically I am doing everything from the ground up. My red line is up 5 buy ins where as overall down 20 buy ins. Still hashing out the details but gotta start somewhere.
Hehe ... watching this while playing. Decided to follow the advice to jam when I was in a spot where normally I bet 33% to ensure a call. He called the jam, much to my astonishment, and lost. One happy customer here 🙂
Next time you play a session take note of how many times you fail to pull the trigger because "they never fold" and how many times you bet smaller to "get called by x". If you do both of these you're contradicting yourself and costing yourself money.
Briljant video!! I love too bluff the last months. I also love that almost everytime they call they have a monster, which is a prove they overfold a lot.
And you will encounter phases of variance where people do look you up lighter but the important thing to remember is that this doesn’t mean bluffing these spots is suddenly unprofitable.
How about losing 200 9 times out of 10 versus getting paid 30 5 times out of 10? These solver Strats might work well against online wizards, but if you play like this at live Poker (something he vehemently hates) you’re going to be punting so hard.
Any tips on constantly losing on ACR with over pairs. Last night lost 3 bullets in a row AA all in pre lost to A10. QQ FLOPPED top set lose to Q10, third one KK all in pre lose to QQ
Your sample is tiny. The most likely explanation for the way you’re feeling about it is that you don’t understand the extent of variance in the game yet. I would recommend looking at primedope’s variance calculator to get a better sense of how swingy the game can be. Try not to place such emphasis on starting hands. Just because you’re dealt a big pocket pair, it doesn’t mean that you’re entitled to win the pot or even be safe from consecutive losses. Keep going! Work on your game and focus on what you CAN control.
Nope definitely not. Say you play 25NL on party poker. You’re paying 9bb/100 in rake. There’s absolutely zero chance more than 5% of the players are beating the game for that + a win rate
I think this is one of your most valuable videos for win rates. Hopefully none of my nitty, over-folding and under-bluffing opponents are watching.
They might be watching but they’re also watching Netflix and eating Doritos so it’ll all be fine.
😂@@CarrotCornerPoker
I appreciate you trying to convince your audience that they can have all three lines trending upwards, in particular encouraging people to just over bluff, you’re doing gods work here insuring a steady upward trickle of money
Great video - blend of mental game, theory, and exploit. Thank you, good sir!
probably one of the most interesting video iv seen in ages... please keep similar topics and hands coming! thanks!
The first 2min were spot on. I'm curious why poker channels don't dive into the psychology of poker
One very small thing, that i dont understand and that occurs regularly in yours and hungryhorse content, is the all in overbet jam "size". For example - you jammed in the first hand 94 bb onto a 34 bb pot as a bluff. What is the difference to an 80bb bet or maybe 85bb bet when you are bluffing and all in jamming for value? I would consider the fold equity similiar, if not higher, the possibility to be rebluffed for this size is non-existant on lower stakes and i don´t see any other reason except balancing, which as we all knowv - shouldn´t also be a consideration, if you don´t play vs the same (solid) ppl all the time... So whats your reasoning for not saving 10-15bb in these spots? The only reason would be, that someone could pick up on that, but in big low stake fields?!?
I just checked the first hand in GTO wizard, you literally can not over bluff with this line. Every single As hand is suppose to jam river. Also A4o with the 4 of spades also jams. This is starting to explain my terrible red line I would have bluffed this at 50% frequency at best, and probably checked turn too often as well. Great video thank you.
Great video thanks Pete. I was thinking another reason for bad red (and blue) lines is not going thin enough for value. If you could make something like this with a few spots where we are probably losing value that would be really helpful :)
Absolutely. Not building big enough pots or value-betting thinly enough in spots where low absolute hand strength hands are actually very high equity due to board texture and action sequence is a common leak that I see.
That's exactly what partypoker hand review wizard has been telling me all the time... that I'm weak, with a low agression factor... in one session I tried to fix this by being agressive all streets... (no limp, raise, 3-bet, 4-bet, check-raise, raising more than calling...) and started to pick up a lot of pots without showdown... then i received messages saying: "that's the preflop agression I was talking about..." they compliment small/medium pots that were taking down without showdown....and complete ignores when I win over 100bbs pots, but the hand was very standard... which makes me think where the winrate comes from... it's not when you win an obvious hand like AA vs KK.... like losing by having your bluff called or winning with the best hand is something you expect all players to experience... but winning a lot of those pots that you didn't mean to win at first glance is what makes the difference... so I realize that the hugest leak is not what you lose, but what you don't win for not being agressive enough... everybody will lose, but you can recover... the bigger problem is not allowing yourself to win what you should... it's like going to a war and not shooting your gun... but we aren't naturally wired for that... that's why tilt is always present even when I'm winning... it's what pushes me out of the comfort zone!
So bluff with the nut flush blocker. Got it
My red line is positive but my blue line is getting crushed (getting better over last 20k hands or so though). How can I tell if this is because I'm a calling station or if I'm being over-aggressive in bad spots?
You’re probably failing to make mandatory folds (folding in spots that are very underbluffed) and making bad bets and raises where more passive lines are better. It’s very hard to diagnose fully without a proper look at your game though.
For the KQ, is delay xraising the turn an option ? They can put money with bluffs or low one pairs and still fold to agression.
The plan is to maybe have an overbet jam snatch cbet range on the river if they check again the turn
56 combis are def in villains range in first hand. Nice video
I am a winning player with a good red line. I work on my mental game all the time; properly bankrolled, meditate every morning, short sessions, calm music, etc. Nonetheless, I would say 5 out of 5 to some degree. Not a large degree. But some degree. And I know the quality of my mental game is a big part of my success when I play well. I have a name for that voice that tells me the b.s. that gets me in trouble, Koozer. The quieter Koozer is, the better my decision-making.
Great content again, keep this up 👍🏼
could you do an episode on how to label your opponents, how you use color code and what you are looking for ?
Thanks. I have quite a lot of ideas for content planned at the moment but will bare this in mind.
What about if your red line is positive and blue/green are negative
Quick question, are these bluffs plays that are supposed to make profit on their own, or is the point just to have better EV than checking/giving up those spots every time?
in the first hand i would probably not get the opportunity to bluff the river because i am not betting the turn - my sim says i should be bluffing AQo with Qs but not As - is the turn bet some kind of an exploit or do i have bad sims?
hahaha this video was spot on and I was wondering why my redline was so bad and it made me depressed lol
No showdown value plus (Range advantage or nut blockers) = bluff
hey sorry to be an english nit, but isnt it risk AVERSE, and not risk adverse?
great video btw.
Yes. I fold.
This is the comment I was looking for :)
"if you need villain to fold here to validate your play...you are screwed" Sounds very basic, but actually is probably more important then the theory stuff (at some lvl). Thank you for another great vid!
Great content again Pete, out of interest what rivers in the KQ hand are you continuing and which are your give ups?
I think the real fruit lies in answering the question of whether pool overfolds or underfolds on certain types of river and I would need to do some deeper analysis to answer this.
I dont care at all if I get called by strong hands but I find it really frustrating when I consistently get called by middle pair. I'm either not choosing the right sizing or not choosing the right board textures.
Or maybe it just didn’t work this time? Sometimes you run into someone who doesn’t like folding or isn’t in the mood to fold. By assuming these are the wrong spots you’re already in danger of committing the fallacy of ‘Ouch I should never have’ which I talk about in Poker Therapy.
@CarrotCornerPoker - I've watched all of your videos and agree 100% with your points on irrational/illogical thinking and flawed mindsets, so that definitely comes into my thinking when I assess a play I made. However, I know you're also not saying that we shouldn't evaluate the spots we're picking, otherwise we could just "over calibrate" (as you say), mindlessly triple barrel bluff every spot and kid ourselves it's fine. I need to take your course, thats for sure! It's next on my to-do list!
Actually, to add to the above...my problem is I'm not able to properly evaluate yet whether my plays are objectively 'good" or 'bad' in certain spots. Hence why I need to improve my theory!
Your videos are so great, note to self - I must be this person!
I am a new subscriber and really enjoy your videos. You speak the truth and make people really think about their game. Please keep the content coming!
Thanks for taking the time to reach out Johnny. I’m always happy to hear from new viewers.
Anytime I jam in these situations, I get called.
Every. Single. Time.
18:53 Yo man I'm GTO Wiz man
This content is premium quality, keep it up
Hi Pete how much is your coaching? I am a 200NL grinder, I am using heavily MDA and my theory knowledge is fine but your knowledge of theory far outweighs mine.
You can find all of my paid products and services at carrotcorner.com - links are in the description.
My red line is positive and my blue line is positive so I must be doing something right. I've found that some players I play with regularly fish or reg seem to overcorrect. I think opponents adjust incorrectly by either waiting for strong hands letting me run them over or just overcalling every spot even the ones that are underbluffed.
This is pretty good content. Thanks
Personally basically I am doing everything from the ground up. My red line is up 5 buy ins where as overall down 20 buy ins. Still hashing out the details but gotta start somewhere.
This might well mean that you are missing important folds and betting in spots where checking returns a higher EV.
Love you man!
Love you too x
Great video.
"If you win here, by checking, your opponent is an absolute numb skull... like your opponent is a buffoon... and an embarrassment and a clown" 🤣🤣🤣🤣
Hehe ... watching this while playing. Decided to follow the advice to jam when I was in a spot where normally I bet 33% to ensure a call. He called the jam, much to my astonishment, and lost. One happy customer here 🙂
Not watching poker videos when playing would be a good place to start
@@FlummoxedCartwright I one table and stop video to concentrate when I need to. But I take your point
@@macalex101zoom or reg tables?
Now run a bluff in the same spot you gross nit ^^
@@FlummoxedCartwright Reg
Next time you play a session take note of how many times you fail to pull the trigger because "they never fold" and how many times you bet smaller to "get called by x".
If you do both of these you're contradicting yourself and costing yourself money.
Briljant video!! I love too bluff the last months. I also love that almost everytime they call they have a monster, which is a prove they overfold a lot.
And you will encounter phases of variance where people do look you up lighter but the important thing to remember is that this doesn’t mean bluffing these spots is suddenly unprofitable.
@@CarrotCornerPoker thanks
magnitude trumping frequency. Getting paid $200 one time out of ten is better than getting paid $30 five times out of ten.
How about losing 200 9 times out of 10 versus getting paid 30 5 times out of 10? These solver Strats might work well against online wizards, but if you play like this at live Poker (something he vehemently hates) you’re going to be punting so hard.
Any tips on constantly losing on ACR with over pairs. Last night lost 3 bullets in a row AA all in pre lost to A10. QQ FLOPPED top set lose to Q10, third one KK all in pre lose to QQ
LOOOOOL
@@jimmyballs5662 🤣😂🤣 it’s almost became a joke at this point I have over 1k hands recorded of very sus shit in that site
Your sample is tiny. The most likely explanation for the way you’re feeling about it is that you don’t understand the extent of variance in the game yet. I would recommend looking at primedope’s variance calculator to get a better sense of how swingy the game can be. Try not to place such emphasis on starting hands. Just because you’re dealt a big pocket pair, it doesn’t mean that you’re entitled to win the pot or even be safe from consecutive losses. Keep going! Work on your game and focus on what you CAN control.
My graph is actually the opposite, upwards red line and straight down blue line lol
Great content though
Then you are in the 15%
95%? Surely a slight exaggeration
Nope definitely not. Say you play 25NL on party poker. You’re paying 9bb/100 in rake. There’s absolutely zero chance more than 5% of the players are beating the game for that + a win rate
I don’t think so personally but who knows!
why are you mad bro?
It’s high EV. Anger gets shit done you know?
Amen
Pete needs to grab a dictionary and look up the definitions of 'Adverse' and 'Averse'. Good poker, bad grammar.