Great video as always Mike. I’m a current resident of Boston and was not surprised to see it make the list. Good education only goes so far. For people who are finished schooling themselves, I think many of them think “what’s the point of staying here for the schools if it’ll be too expensive to ever raise kids to attend them.”
Boston has lost ~50k people since 2020, nearly 10%. I feel so many Massholes are oblivious to the financial cliff that we're about to be pushed off. Our State Legislature doesn't care either.
@@matthewpolmanter8294 I get the point you're trying to make, but not really sure it fits here. Massachusetts has pretty consistently had the best education system in the US since colonial times. Periods of Democratic dominance, Republican dominance, hell even Whig dominance - doesn't matter who's in power here or who gets the votes. The state culture/mindset of investing in education is independent of local political or demographic trends.
That tired old "Don't X my Y!" battle cry. X = state moved from, Y = state moved to that will be "ruined" by folks from X moving to Y. I live in Atlanta now and have for a while, but I will say, I think the only gripe I have is not so much WHERE newcomers come from, more than that it is making our city/metropolitan area that much more congested. Yet, that's more a problem with local politics than anything, not the fault of those packing up from wherever and moving here. They want to bring people here from all over America and the world, but fail to build any new infrastructure that will support all of these new arrivals.
The population loss of Cook County from 2020 to 2023 was 3.6%. (Chicago was 3%). So a loss, but not as high as the other counties featured in the video.
Can only speak for what I saw as an ex-Chicagoan. I suspect the city has enough amenities & “pull” that the people leaving Chicago are being readily replaced by comparatively higher earning exodees from LA/NY.
I think you passed by a major point as to why those specific regions/counties in the NY/SF area are losing population. Yes, part of it is for sure is due to cost of living, but also it just simply stems from the shift to remote work in the tech force during and post-COVID (we know SF/NY are the tech heavens for the US). The video is comparing county populations from 2020 to 2023 as well, so it is actually observing the post-COVID-19 impacts mainly, rather than for a more regular life period (say like 2010 to 2013). I think had COVID never happened and the tech force continued onwards with in-office work environments (on a regular day-to-day style), those SF/NY counties would not have been up there at the top for this most recent time period (I would expect the population to rather seem more stable in SF/NY, say around -1 to 0 % for example). Now yes, there will likely still be many irritated and rushing to move out because of the inevitable cost of living, but I think the "force" that we had pre-2020 to come out of our homes and into the workplace, build personal interactive relations, and become just more attached to the surrounding people we work with - I just think these qualities would have surely made tech workers in the area feel more attached together with their community in SF/NY, and prevented the widespread thought of moving out to wherever you want to go. As a person working in a remote environment for almost a year now myself, I definitely have attracted thoughts to move out of my Toronto area economic heckhole very often. Day by day, however, it seems evident that I do this much more frequently than my close friends who are working in office 5 days a week/hybrid, and I'm starting to realize a correlation there. So I do feel like recent population declines primarily in SF/NY are highly driven by shift to remote work for these giant tech cities. It provided opportunity to work far from the office location. Had this been pre-2020, I think we would see different results.
as someone who’s always only preferred remote work; good. workers deserve location freedom instead of having to slog through urban traffic. i may not be a fan of Big Tech at all, but i’m glad more companies are shifting towards being fully remote. it’s the modern day, the concept of office spaces are outdated as it is
I'd think in most cases remote work isn't actually the root cause for population loss. If housing costs were lower, many of people who are now remote would be less inclined to move away from the convenience and amenities that those cities provide, their friends and coworkers, and possibly family. And if they do move, most would move to a similarly sized metro area. It all really does come down to housing costs, because nobody wants to pay NYC or SF rents if they don't have to, and this is mostly self-inflicted IMO because those cities have largely not built much housing despite demand to live there being very high. Tokyo is a good comparison. Housing in Tokyo in terms of CPI was essentially flatlined from the mid 1990s (post building bubble) through to just before COVID. That's despite Tokyo gaining population during that timeframe.They accomplished that because as part of the post-bubble reforms, they made it far easier and cheaper for developers to build. That, along with generally much less restrictive zoning codes, meant that construction could keep pace with population growth in Tokyo and keep housing costs low, while simultaneously allowing for much newer and more modern housing stock than you see in most US cities. Looking mainly at SF with it's post-war 1940s stick-built rowhomes here, but there's lots of other offenders. By contrast, US cities and especially the major metro areas in California along with NYC, Boston, Philly, and Chicago, all make it very difficult to build newer housing. All have drastically underbuilt relative to the demand to live in those places, and as a result housing costs exploded. Cities in the Sunbelt have generally allowed far more new construction in the past several decades, resulting in far more affordable housing and thereby far more population growth, albeit much of that is rural-to-suburban single-family developments that pre-COVID required awful commutes to and from the metro centers.
While I'm not the most educated on census statistics, economics or even from the number one spot, I did not expect it to be number one since it already had prior entries haha. I wasn't sure if you were going by numbers, percentages of people leaving, or other specific statistics like inflation/COL which is probably why I was expecting Hawaii, Alaska or possibly Los Angeles County just by sheer numbers. Another great video Mr. Mike!
The view at 4:18 is the view I had last January from the 53rd floor of the residence inn on W 57th street. Wasn’t too bad of a price in January but I don’t even want to know how much it would have cost a month earlier
10:30 I don't forsee any of them reversing anytime soon, but of the 10 I would pick the one having any chance it will be Suffolk, as Boston isn't as bad as the other areas in crime.
@@naptime0143MA is the fastest growing state within New England for a specific reason: people there can get a whole lot of money. All the other states in the division themselves have much less potential in comparison to have lots of money since all the other states in the division have similar prices yet not as much as an economy vs MA
8:02 Milwaukee unlike St. Louis has attracted a decent number of Latin American (and more recently Muslim) Immigrants to the city and thus the population is stagnant but not in outright free fall like alot of other rust belt cities.
In 2024, Boston has been slightly increasing and will probably stay like such, despite the city’s prices not declining anytime soon there’s no guarantee it will continue declining population, because it hasn’t been at least very recently
The lesson I took away from this video: if you don't want more people moving to where you live, YOU start running it like these cities and counties (and parishes) run theirs! Otherwise, leaving newcomers in the dark on where not to move will fix nothing. Looking forward to the reverse video of this if you do one, the fastest growing counties! You haven't let us down with these, Mike!
As a native New Yorker who's looking to move to the Boston area due to work, both areas being on this list didn't shock me one bit. Americans with average salaries simply can't afford to live in those metros.
St Louis County is gaining all the city’s residents because they’re closer to most of the jobs and better schools. It’s been like that forever. The city of STL can reverse the trend if it can enact its master plan of dense affordable housing and have better quality of life: better police, schools and jobs
@@starrwulfe STL city government cannot get out of it's own way, and the county's not far behind. The city school board goes through superintendents like crap through a goose. I look for no improvements anytime soon. Many of the county schools, especially in the north, have many of the same problems. Thus, the exodus to St. Charles, Franklin, Lincoln and Jefferson counties.
Not really. People in Manhattan and Brooklyn earn more money, and are more likely to be able to afford to live there and thus less likely to move out. People in Queens, and especially the Bronx, are lower-income earners who would move out at the first chance they get.
New York City was, is and will always be expensive. When I lived up county from there (which was also expensive) my younger self didn't mind. It was fun and a great place to enjoy my 20s and 30s. But it was relatively safe then. When you're paying through the nose for everything you expect the people in charge to protect their income by keeping the streets safe. That ended, people leave.
Worth noting that the census estimates for NYC are literally always wrong going back at least 34 years, and I wouldn’t be surprised this is true for other cities with immigrant communities. If you Google “NYC population” you can see for yourself how clueless one has to be to believe census estimates for NYC. Every 10 years there is a massive correction to the population of NYC because that is when the real census is done. They don’t go back to retroactively fix their estimates, so even right now the population census bureau provided graph of NYC claims that: 1999->2000: +600,000 people after supposedly being flat for all of the 90s 2009->2010: +200,000 people after supposedly being in decline for all of the 00s 2019->2020: +430,000 people after supposedly growing by very little in the 10s. It is ridiculous that these wild single year increases are presented as fact to this day. And that the media continues to treat estimates of NYC as fact. At the end of the day when 2030 arrives NY will either have flatlined or exceeded 9 million people.
I live in the New York area and totally agree with you. The roads around here, and the trains to the city are more crowded then ever. Like Yogi Berra said: "Nobody goes there anymore. It's too crowded."
100% agree. NYC is an international city. I know plenty of people who live here 4 months at a time or have a 2nd or 3rd home in NYC but they are citizens of another country. I even say an article saying that the subway is dead, but during rush I'm packed in like sardines. I think the same people who run this data are also the same folks that said this last presidential election will be a close one
The Great State of Misery's 1876 Constitution set a city limit for St. Louis, separating it politically from St. Louis County, and moving the county seat out of downtown. Clayton was developed and became the county seat. Reunification requires a constitutional amendment. STL has one other major problem: the 86 municipalities that make up St. Louis County and the desire of each little fiefdom to hang onto power. Some, like Kirkwood, Wildwood, Chesterfield, Town & Country, Huntleigh, Crystal Lake Park, Frontenac and Ladue, are among the wealthiest in Missouri and the US, and there's a big dropoff in most of the rest. The collar cities around the 1876-established city limits are nearly as bad as the north side of STL itself. Many middle-income people are leaving St. Louis County for St. Charles County (now the state's 4th largest), along with Jefferson, Franklin and Lincoln counties, and also into Illinois, away from East St. Louis. Fixing it will take quite some time and much money. Crime, especially juveniles with guns, remains out of control. New developments are happening in the center city and downtown, but more are needed, and are outpaced by the other counties. As usual, Missouri didn't learn it's lesson; no such provisions were made in Kansas City, which now sprawls across parts of three counties and dwarfs STL in both area and population. Returning St. Louis City into St. Louis County probably won't happen in my lifetime; the toxic politics between the two and their voters will likely prohibit it.
Boston lost lots of "official" residents when Covid motivated well-off folks to act on their plans to head to warmer (and redder) places. These folks actually still have their jobs, businesses, and homes (so no one else can move in to be "official") in Boston but stay out of Massachusetts for the required 50% of the year to escape MA residential taxes. I suspect NYC saw the same upper middle class flight. All these cities need to create new housing for average people, not for wealthy property portfolios or empty towers for foreign investors.
10) Suffolk County MA (core Boston) 9) Jefferson Parish LA (suburban New Orleans) 8) San Mateo County CA (NorCal) 7) Orleans Parish LA (New Orleans core) 6) New York County NY (Manhattan) 5) Queens County NY (Queens) 4) Kings County NY (Brooklyn) 3) St Louis MO (core St Louis) 2) San Francisco CA 1) Bronx, NY
San Jose is the larger city between the two. And the main city in Silicon Valley. But San Francisco is still the financial heart of the Bay Area. Alone with being the cultural heart of the Bay Area. Because of that, San Francisco still wills the biggest influence over the Bay Area. Thus making it still the main city of the Bay Area despite being the second largest city in the metropolitan area.
San Jose is very suburban so while it is a larger city it is a not very urban one. You can look at the downtown of the 2 cities and compare them but that could change in the future as the area changes.
Broward County, FL had a growth of 0.9% between 2020 and 2023. So it still growing but not at high rate. But I have notice that the Miami Metropolitan Area (Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach County) isn’t growing rapidly like it was years ago though. -Lifelong Brevard County, FL resident
@@SA-hz1rs I know. Miami-Dade County is losing people. Broward County is barely growing. Palm Beach County is only one out of Miami metropolitan area counties growing.
Again, these numbers arent accurate from the census. The CBO reported the US grew significantly more than than than the census counted. The census didn't count the people coming across the border we currently have six million more people than the census estimated.
So NYC loss a large population between 2020 and 2023. Last time NYC lost that many people (between 1970 and 1980), it nearly bankrupt NYC. I wonder why we not hearing about the city facing bankruptcy this time around?
Cities just borrow money to kick the can down the road because interest rate is low and Washington prints a ton of money. In the 70s and 80s interest was high and balancing the city budget was more important. Now we don't care if cities have a massive budget deficit.
These numbers are estimates and we dont really have solid figures until the next census. It's not uncommon for these year by years to be just outright wrong at times or exaggerated. Another potential factor in manhattan is how gentrification and push for higher end residential means that a lot of buildings are either being replaced with or converted into less dense units. So an old building that packed them in is replaced by luxury units where one single executive or rich couple has a large condo unit which would have before housed multiple. But I suspect that 4 NY boroughs did not lose about half a million in one year. Even if NY is a city of 9million and a lot of them just move across the river to jersey you'd notice that.
The name North and South comes from dividing California in to 2 halves and since most of the population lives on the coast, they look at the state from a very costal perspective. Even the Spanish only set up missions/camps along the coast and never really went in to the interior of the area. From a costal perspective, San Diego and Los Angeles are in the South and San Francsico/Bay Area are in the North. There is no flat land north along the coast except for the small area around Eureka/Crescent city which is very remote and considered "Far north". People from Sacramento are probably not going to call San Francsico as North as it is to the West so a mix between modern population changes as Sacremento area is growing very fast VS old California which was mostly costal.
The one for Suffolk County, MA is a bit misleading. Yes, it contains the city of Boston but it is like 25% of Boston Metro area and geographically skewed to the South and East. There are now a lot more jobs along the Rt-128 belt, especially to the north and west side. You literally just have to walk a few block north or west or across the Charles River to exit Suffolk County from Downtown Boston and Back Bay. Bet you that there won't be any population decline if one makes Suffolk county more symmetrical to Charles River (aka including those immediate northern and western suburbs likes Cambridge, Medford, Malden, Brookline
The same is also true for the Bay Area, people may have left SF and San Jose proper but a lot of them simply moved to the surrounding suburban counties to still be close enough to these job centers while having more space and newer/cheaper housing options
third Cool seeing the county I was born in on the list. Me and my wife left 6 or so years ago. Had our daughter in a different state and settled down. Those future tax dollars walking away from them. We're also high earners so it must hurt even more. But I dont miss it. Eff NY. Paying so much in taxes to watch the homeless pleasure themselves in front of you on the train
It seems like we’re still seeing the lingering effects of 2020 where people moved away from cities for remote work or to find places where they weren’t cooped up in apartments during lockdowns (since none of the benefits of city living were available at that point). Will be interesting to see how things stack up by the end of this decade. I get the feeling city populations will recover and likely even surpass 2020 levels with how much young people and even millennial 30-40somethings still want to live in dense urban areas, although costs in NYC, SF, and Boston may still be too high for them to see the full benefits of this
Love your work and I appreciate your efforts to remain a political but clearly the woke policy of the places and the refusal to enforce the law and keep its citizens safe are the biggest reasons. Certainly cost of living is a factor but these places have always been high cost. People have been fleeing NY for Florida for nearly 70 years. Initially for weather and lower costs but now for the above reasons and the pace has increased greatly. And let’s not forget taxes. They are a major component of cost of living.
Lack of law enforcement, very high taxes (and getting almost nothing in return for it) and covid (the lockdowns/policies in blue states scared people off, as well as just covid spreading like wildfire in super densely populated areas like NYC.)
Conversely, the fact that people come from places where the Dem primary has been the *de facto* election forever don't particularly care for what happens where the GOP primary's been the *de facto* election since Nixon's Southern Strategy. That's led to a lot of places getting bluer when moderate/neo-prairie populist Democrats win against ultra-MAGA Republicans. People who move to a place for good schools don't vote for book-banners or those who use the fact that trans people exist and might theoretically want to play sports as an excuse to "inspect" little girls' genitals.
I HATED Virginia and their INSANE personal property tax on cars. I was visiting up there once and they attempted to ticket my car (registered in Texas) for not having a Loudoun County sticker. Having previously lived in Va Beach, I knew their greedy ploy, so I called the county and gave them an option for balancing the budget: ticket EVERY left-lane camper in the state. The registrar began laughing so loud she almost dropped the phone. “I hear you, honey, I hear you! Thank you for making my day with that laugh!”
A lot of New Yorks are leaving because they've realized that they can just hop over to NJ and CN and get the benefits of NYC without having to pay the NY taxes. It's not like the commute is going to be much worse given the ailing mass transit infrastructure.
Climate is not a real reason people move. The weather in New York has always been as good/bad as it is now, and moreso, people have convenient AC and heating now. The South was barely habitable before AC. People move for economic and political reason. Weather/climate is a cope that many cities with losing populations will cite, but the people leaving Chicago are mostly moving to other midwestern states. People leaving NY are going to the south because the south is the closest place where the all the problems of NY aren't replicated, the climate is a post-hoc rationalization. Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine have all grown while NY and Boston have shrunk.
Not to be *that guy* but climate was a major reason why I moved from the Seattle area to southern Arizona. Seasonal depression is a real thing for me and the nice winter months here played a massive part in my decision making. Cost of living being a bit less was a bonus. The Mexican food here is another huge bonus.
The winters in NY are long (NY gets about 6 months of cold and snow a year, summer barely lasts 2 1/2 months) and can be a burden for some. Especially if one has seasonal depression. In the south, you don't have to waste time shoveling snow, fighting the snow and ice when you have to drive somewhere, get much more time outside etc.
@@johnchedsey1306 People forget that long gray winter, or spring, or fall days can wear on you. I suspect climate/weather might be a secondary reason for many people. I seem to recall a rush of people moving to North Dakota when there was a oil boom there some years back. Of course, it was for the prospect of high paying jobs, but it's not exactly tropical climate wise. After the oil boom played out, few stayed behind. Still, states like Texas and Arizona do have a number of transplants from Chicagoland and other nearby colder (and drearier) climes.
My grandparents absolutely cited Pennsylvania winters as a reason for their move to South Carolina (aside from being close to the grandchildren). If cold weather wasn’t an issue, they might have moved to eastern Tennessee, but now they only regret not moving to the Appalachians because so many other Northerners moved to southeastern SC that it’s become crowded. Almost 200k people in Beaufort County alone.
AOC is the symptom of the underlying problems. Bronx is probably known for being the poorest of the city boroughs, yet high real estate valuations did not spare the Bronx. The people least able to afford rent increases are the ones most likely to pack up and leave. After all, with city money, you can afford to outbid locals elsewhere, sometimes 2 times over sticker price, or offer cash upfront. This is affecting states like TX and FL greatly, whose residents are getting priced out by big city residents with giant bags of money.
Because harbors there facilitated international trade that brought about rapid development for those cities (in addition to railroads connecting them with the rest of the continent), if you’re wondering about Los Angeles and San Francisco, which have historically been some of the busiest seaports along the American Pacific coast. And I guess people like the weather there better than in the Northeast. If a lot of people live on a fault line, chances are there’s also a nearby coastline.
I have a personal rant here: People moving out from cities generally hike up the rates for everyone else living in the suburbs. I moved to NJ in 2015 where apartments were still somewhat affordable. Post-covid, I have no idea how I'm supposed to pay close to $1500 a month for a studio in a non-luxury apartment. I'm currently stuck living with my parents, unable to do anything about it. If you ask me, I think things like rent need to be controlled by the government, rather than making it a supply/demand thing. We're not talking about capitalism here, we're talking about basic human necessities that are being taken away by some greedy folk.
Government interference is a large factor in why housing is so expensive (same reason why health care is so expensive.) We don't have a true free market when it comes to housing (or health care.) You live with your parents, but on the bright side, you will get to spend more time with them, something you will appreciate when you have to bury them later in life, something I learned that the hard way.
New York City has some rent controls. The insane demand is going to be the driving factor for high prices, but rent controls hurt developers who want to build.
Fulton, DeKalb, and Clayton Counties are struggling very often. I realized that Gwinnett County is safe, but in Metro Atlanta, one county that's the best is Forsyth County.
Definitely feels like it when I’ve visited, but my grandmother and aunt have lived in DeKalb and Gwinnett respectively the last fifty years and they’re probably staying as long as they can. To your credit, maybe the state government would care more for us all outside the Atlanta area if those Atlanta suburbanites ended up moving to the other great urban/suburban counties elsewhere throughout the state (Muscogee, Chatham, Richmond; might pass on Bibb, Clarke, and Dougherty, though). That or consent to smaller lot sizes for their properties (noticing how sumptuous a lot of them are in Gwinnett especially) and better residential planning, but they’d never do that.
Great video as always Mike. I’m a current resident of Boston and was not surprised to see it make the list. Good education only goes so far. For people who are finished schooling themselves, I think many of them think “what’s the point of staying here for the schools if it’ll be too expensive to ever raise kids to attend them.”
Boston has lost ~50k people since 2020, nearly 10%. I feel so many Massholes are oblivious to the financial cliff that we're about to be pushed off. Our State Legislature doesn't care either.
If the schools were good there, people wouldn't be voting for policies that are literally driving people away because it's so expensive.
@@matthewpolmanter8294 I get the point you're trying to make, but not really sure it fits here. Massachusetts has pretty consistently had the best education system in the US since colonial times. Periods of Democratic dominance, Republican dominance, hell even Whig dominance - doesn't matter who's in power here or who gets the votes. The state culture/mindset of investing in education is independent of local political or demographic trends.
you should do top 10 fastest growing counties as well
No he shouldn't
@@NihilistSolitude I agree. Also the places that have the lowest cost of living.
Americans to Americans: Don’t move to my part of America
I have never done that. I live in Florida and I welcome others who want to move here.
@@MirzaAhmed89until you see crime go up, rent, cost of living, and more taxes
and then those latter Americans move there anyway. cant be helped
That tired old "Don't X my Y!" battle cry. X = state moved from, Y = state moved to that will be "ruined" by folks from X moving to Y.
I live in Atlanta now and have for a while, but I will say, I think the only gripe I have is not so much WHERE newcomers come from, more than that it is making our city/metropolitan area that much more congested. Yet, that's more a problem with local politics than anything, not the fault of those packing up from wherever and moving here. They want to bring people here from all over America and the world, but fail to build any new infrastructure that will support all of these new arrivals.
@@28ebdh3udnav people will move anyway someone saying "dont move here" on the internet wont be stopping a soul
My favorite travel channel. When mileage mike uploads, it’s a good day.
😎
0:13 *THANXX* 4 da free plug
Kinda shocked it wasn't Cook County in Illinois (Chicago and part of its metro).
Chicago and the southern suburbs in the county are struggling. In the north, it's just fine. Correct me if I'm mistaken.
The population loss of Cook County from 2020 to 2023 was 3.6%. (Chicago was 3%). So a loss, but not as high as the other counties featured in the video.
northern cook is doing just fine, even growing in some places, while southern cook is shrinking/doing worse. western is hit or miss.
Can only speak for what I saw as an ex-Chicagoan. I suspect the city has enough amenities & “pull” that the people leaving Chicago are being readily replaced by comparatively higher earning exodees from LA/NY.
In Chicagoland, at least DuPage County have the best suburbs in the metropolitan area and it's still growing.
1:22 - Ah, some folks in Boston still treat traffic control devices as suggestions... I'll have to send this link to my sister! 😲😂
I think you passed by a major point as to why those specific regions/counties in the NY/SF area are losing population. Yes, part of it is for sure is due to cost of living, but also it just simply stems from the shift to remote work in the tech force during and post-COVID (we know SF/NY are the tech heavens for the US). The video is comparing county populations from 2020 to 2023 as well, so it is actually observing the post-COVID-19 impacts mainly, rather than for a more regular life period (say like 2010 to 2013). I think had COVID never happened and the tech force continued onwards with in-office work environments (on a regular day-to-day style), those SF/NY counties would not have been up there at the top for this most recent time period (I would expect the population to rather seem more stable in SF/NY, say around -1 to 0 % for example).
Now yes, there will likely still be many irritated and rushing to move out because of the inevitable cost of living, but I think the "force" that we had pre-2020 to come out of our homes and into the workplace, build personal interactive relations, and become just more attached to the surrounding people we work with - I just think these qualities would have surely made tech workers in the area feel more attached together with their community in SF/NY, and prevented the widespread thought of moving out to wherever you want to go. As a person working in a remote environment for almost a year now myself, I definitely have attracted thoughts to move out of my Toronto area economic heckhole very often. Day by day, however, it seems evident that I do this much more frequently than my close friends who are working in office 5 days a week/hybrid, and I'm starting to realize a correlation there. So I do feel like recent population declines primarily in SF/NY are highly driven by shift to remote work for these giant tech cities. It provided opportunity to work far from the office location. Had this been pre-2020, I think we would see different results.
@bigdripbobz1072 lawlessness post covid also played a big factor.
as someone who’s always only preferred remote work; good. workers deserve location freedom instead of having to slog through urban traffic. i may not be a fan of Big Tech at all, but i’m glad more companies are shifting towards being fully remote. it’s the modern day, the concept of office spaces are outdated as it is
I'd think in most cases remote work isn't actually the root cause for population loss. If housing costs were lower, many of people who are now remote would be less inclined to move away from the convenience and amenities that those cities provide, their friends and coworkers, and possibly family. And if they do move, most would move to a similarly sized metro area. It all really does come down to housing costs, because nobody wants to pay NYC or SF rents if they don't have to, and this is mostly self-inflicted IMO because those cities have largely not built much housing despite demand to live there being very high.
Tokyo is a good comparison. Housing in Tokyo in terms of CPI was essentially flatlined from the mid 1990s (post building bubble) through to just before COVID. That's despite Tokyo gaining population during that timeframe.They accomplished that because as part of the post-bubble reforms, they made it far easier and cheaper for developers to build. That, along with generally much less restrictive zoning codes, meant that construction could keep pace with population growth in Tokyo and keep housing costs low, while simultaneously allowing for much newer and more modern housing stock than you see in most US cities. Looking mainly at SF with it's post-war 1940s stick-built rowhomes here, but there's lots of other offenders.
By contrast, US cities and especially the major metro areas in California along with NYC, Boston, Philly, and Chicago, all make it very difficult to build newer housing. All have drastically underbuilt relative to the demand to live in those places, and as a result housing costs exploded. Cities in the Sunbelt have generally allowed far more new construction in the past several decades, resulting in far more affordable housing and thereby far more population growth, albeit much of that is rural-to-suburban single-family developments that pre-COVID required awful commutes to and from the metro centers.
While I'm not the most educated on census statistics, economics or even from the number one spot, I did not expect it to be number one since it already had prior entries haha.
I wasn't sure if you were going by numbers, percentages of people leaving, or other specific statistics like inflation/COL which is probably why I was expecting Hawaii, Alaska or possibly Los Angeles County just by sheer numbers.
Another great video Mr. Mike!
Excellent analysis as we have all been pleased to become accustomed to.
Enjoy the content. Thanks!
The view at 4:18 is the view I had last January from the 53rd floor of the residence inn on W 57th street. Wasn’t too bad of a price in January but I don’t even want to know how much it would have cost a month earlier
I don't know why I love consolidated city-counties so much...always cool to learn new ones
10:30 I don't forsee any of them reversing anytime soon, but of the 10 I would pick the one having any chance it will be Suffolk, as Boston isn't as bad as the other areas in crime.
It's still very expensive in Boston and Massachusetts is close to surpassing Hawaii as being the most expensive state
@@naptime0143MA is the fastest growing state within New England for a specific reason: people there can get a whole lot of money. All the other states in the division themselves have much less potential in comparison to have lots of money since all the other states in the division have similar prices yet not as much as an economy vs MA
8:02 Milwaukee unlike St. Louis has attracted a decent number of Latin American (and more recently Muslim) Immigrants to the city and thus the population is stagnant but not in outright free fall like alot of other rust belt cities.
In 2024, Boston has been slightly increasing and will probably stay like such, despite the city’s prices not declining anytime soon there’s no guarantee it will continue declining population, because it hasn’t been at least very recently
The lesson I took away from this video: if you don't want more people moving to where you live, YOU start running it like these cities and counties (and parishes) run theirs! Otherwise, leaving newcomers in the dark on where not to move will fix nothing.
Looking forward to the reverse video of this if you do one, the fastest growing counties! You haven't let us down with these, Mike!
new upload in a matter of 4 days. W
Trying to get that frequency up!
As a native New Yorker who's looking to move to the Boston area due to work, both areas being on this list didn't shock me one bit. Americans with average salaries simply can't afford to live in those metros.
Good job
I am surprised about St Louis. It's been awhile since I went through there though. I just remember it getting as cold as Chicago.
Surprised Richmond County, NY isn't also on the list. Could make it a clean sweep with all 5 boroughs
It's crazy what's happening to the city of St. Louis's population. It's just been on a downward spiral for decades.
At the dawn of the 20th Century, STL was the nation's 4th largest city. Downhill ever since.
St Louis County is gaining all the city’s residents because they’re closer to most of the jobs and better schools. It’s been like that forever. The city of STL can reverse the trend if it can enact its master plan of dense affordable housing and have better quality of life: better police, schools and jobs
@@starrwulfe STL city government cannot get out of it's own way, and the county's not far behind. The city school board goes through superintendents like crap through a goose. I look for no improvements anytime soon. Many of the county schools, especially in the north, have many of the same problems. Thus, the exodus to St. Charles, Franklin, Lincoln and Jefferson counties.
Not surprised some NYC counties made the list
The order of which was higher than the other is surprising
Not really. People in Manhattan and Brooklyn earn more money, and are more likely to be able to afford to live there and thus less likely to move out. People in Queens, and especially the Bronx, are lower-income earners who would move out at the first chance they get.
Early notification gaang 🎉😊…1st!
Prescott Valley, Az "Findlay Toyota Center"
New York City was, is and will always be expensive. When I lived up county from there (which was also expensive) my younger self didn't mind. It was fun and a great place to enjoy my 20s and 30s. But it was relatively safe then. When you're paying through the nose for everything you expect the people in charge to protect their income by keeping the streets safe. That ended, people leave.
Four NYC boroughs in the top six. Not at all surprised.
Worth noting that the census estimates for NYC are literally always wrong going back at least 34 years, and I wouldn’t be surprised this is true for other cities with immigrant communities.
If you Google “NYC population” you can see for yourself how clueless one has to be to believe census estimates for NYC.
Every 10 years there is a massive correction to the population of NYC because that is when the real census is done. They don’t go back to retroactively fix their estimates, so even right now the population census bureau provided graph of NYC claims that:
1999->2000: +600,000 people after supposedly being flat for all of the 90s
2009->2010: +200,000 people after supposedly being in decline for all of the 00s
2019->2020: +430,000 people after supposedly growing by very little in the 10s.
It is ridiculous that these wild single year increases are presented as fact to this day. And that the media continues to treat estimates of NYC as fact. At the end of the day when 2030 arrives NY will either have flatlined or exceeded 9 million people.
I live in the New York area and totally agree with you. The roads around here, and the trains to the city are more crowded then ever. Like Yogi Berra said: "Nobody goes there anymore. It's too crowded."
100% agree. NYC is an international city. I know plenty of people who live here 4 months at a time or have a 2nd or 3rd home in NYC but they are citizens of another country. I even say an article saying that the subway is dead, but during rush I'm packed in like sardines. I think the same people who run this data are also the same folks that said this last presidential election will be a close one
What are ur thoughts on states damning up rivers and creating reservoirs so the water doesn’t drain into the ocean creating sea level rise??
The Great State of Misery's 1876 Constitution set a city limit for St. Louis, separating it politically from St. Louis County, and moving the county seat out of downtown. Clayton was developed and became the county seat. Reunification requires a constitutional amendment. STL has one other major problem: the 86 municipalities that make up St. Louis County and the desire of each little fiefdom to hang onto power. Some, like Kirkwood, Wildwood, Chesterfield, Town & Country, Huntleigh, Crystal Lake Park, Frontenac and Ladue, are among the wealthiest in Missouri and the US, and there's a big dropoff in most of the rest. The collar cities around the 1876-established city limits are nearly as bad as the north side of STL itself. Many middle-income people are leaving St. Louis County for St. Charles County (now the state's 4th largest), along with Jefferson, Franklin and Lincoln counties, and also into Illinois, away from East St. Louis. Fixing it will take quite some time and much money. Crime, especially juveniles with guns, remains out of control. New developments are happening in the center city and downtown, but more are needed, and are outpaced by the other counties. As usual, Missouri didn't learn it's lesson; no such provisions were made in Kansas City, which now sprawls across parts of three counties and dwarfs STL in both area and population. Returning St. Louis City into St. Louis County probably won't happen in my lifetime; the toxic politics between the two and their voters will likely prohibit it.
Boston lost lots of "official" residents when Covid motivated well-off folks to act on their plans to head to warmer (and redder) places. These folks actually still have their jobs, businesses, and homes (so no one else can move in to be "official") in Boston but stay out of Massachusetts for the required 50% of the year to escape MA residential taxes. I suspect NYC saw the same upper middle class flight. All these cities need to create new housing for average people, not for wealthy property portfolios or empty towers for foreign investors.
New Orleans is a fun city to visit, but I see why people are leaving in droves
So, how was this information sourced/how did you research this because it doesn't seem to align with census data.
Census data is linked in the description.
@@MileageMike485 My fault, I just noticed that you were looking at only counties with 250k population.
now what influence does gentrification play in some of these counties?
10) Suffolk County MA (core Boston)
9) Jefferson Parish LA (suburban New Orleans)
8) San Mateo County CA (NorCal)
7) Orleans Parish LA (New Orleans core)
6) New York County NY (Manhattan)
5) Queens County NY (Queens)
4) Kings County NY (Brooklyn)
3) St Louis MO (core St Louis)
2) San Francisco CA
1) Bronx, NY
And i was thinking Los Angeles County would be up there due to the high cost of living, crime, and multiple disasters.
lmao you might wanna look at the fucking south crime bud. la is nowhere near those red state shit holes
Isn’t San Jose the dominant city of the Bay Area? It’s much bigger than San Francisco.
San Jose is the larger city between the two. And the main city in Silicon Valley. But San Francisco is still the financial heart of the Bay Area. Alone with being the cultural heart of the Bay Area. Because of that, San Francisco still wills the biggest influence over the Bay Area. Thus making it still the main city of the Bay Area despite being the second largest city in the metropolitan area.
San Jose is very suburban so while it is a larger city it is a not very urban one. You can look at the downtown of the 2 cities and compare them but that could change in the future as the area changes.
Great video i see Louisiana really does suck
I left caddo parish.
I thought Lake County Indiana would be there
What happened to alot of people fleeing Broward????
Broward County, FL had a growth of 0.9% between 2020 and 2023. So it still growing but not at high rate.
But I have notice that the Miami Metropolitan Area (Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach County) isn’t growing rapidly like it was years ago though.
-Lifelong Brevard County, FL resident
@ace20016 oh ok
people are fleeing miami dade
@@ace20016 miami dade is struggling
@@SA-hz1rs I know. Miami-Dade County is losing people. Broward County is barely growing. Palm Beach County is only one out of Miami metropolitan area counties growing.
NJ is reciving all of NY refugees
Again, these numbers arent accurate from the census. The CBO reported the US grew significantly more than than than the census counted. The census didn't count the people coming across the border we currently have six million more people than the census estimated.
It would take a huge culture shift towards hating suburbs for St Louis to ever overcome its plight.
Please don't come to mine.
Where you at???
Agreed 😅
Enough people are moving to mine already, we don’t need more!
@@bobbo11357I’m right here on 7 mile. 7 mile and Moross.
@@poalima6527lol. I was just kidding
I don’t know where you are, but if it’s a good place to live, they’ll arrive for sure.
So NYC loss a large population between 2020 and 2023. Last time NYC lost that many people (between 1970 and 1980), it nearly bankrupt NYC. I wonder why we not hearing about the city facing bankruptcy this time around?
The absurd real estate valuations helps hide the trend
Because it’s been bankrupt lol
Cities just borrow money to kick the can down the road because interest rate is low and Washington prints a ton of money. In the 70s and 80s interest was high and balancing the city budget was more important. Now we don't care if cities have a massive budget deficit.
A lot of cities were using Covid money from the Feds over the past several years but it’s starting to run out now.
These numbers are estimates and we dont really have solid figures until the next census. It's not uncommon for these year by years to be just outright wrong at times or exaggerated.
Another potential factor in manhattan is how gentrification and push for higher end residential means that a lot of buildings are either being replaced with or converted into less dense units. So an old building that packed them in is replaced by luxury units where one single executive or rich couple has a large condo unit which would have before housed multiple.
But I suspect that 4 NY boroughs did not lose about half a million in one year. Even if NY is a city of 9million and a lot of them just move across the river to jersey you'd notice that.
This video should be redone by counting all of NYC as one county. Otherwise, it’s more of a top 7 list than top 10.
I mean, I think it’s valuable information to see that 3 of the top ten are in NYC. He’s just keeping with the video’s title and purpose.
Do you link where you get this information from?
Easy enough to look up population estimates. Obviously the official Census data is used for 2020.
He gets it from me
Geography is kind of a thing with me. I would really appreciate someone explaining how San Francisco is considered Northern California.
its in the northern part of california
@@switchpiece haha
@switchpiece Amazing
The name North and South comes from dividing California in to 2 halves and since most of the population lives on the coast, they look at the state from a very costal perspective. Even the Spanish only set up missions/camps along the coast and never really went in to the interior of the area. From a costal perspective, San Diego and Los Angeles are in the South and San Francsico/Bay Area are in the North. There is no flat land north along the coast except for the small area around Eureka/Crescent city which is very remote and considered "Far north". People from Sacramento are probably not going to call San Francsico as North as it is to the West so a mix between modern population changes as Sacremento area is growing very fast VS old California which was mostly costal.
@drscopeify Thanks. Very informative.
The one for Suffolk County, MA is a bit misleading. Yes, it contains the city of Boston but it is like 25% of Boston Metro area and geographically skewed to the South and East. There are now a lot more jobs along the Rt-128 belt, especially to the north and west side. You literally just have to walk a few block north or west or across the Charles River to exit Suffolk County from Downtown Boston and Back Bay. Bet you that there won't be any population decline if one makes Suffolk county more symmetrical to Charles River (aka including those immediate northern and western suburbs likes Cambridge, Medford, Malden, Brookline
The same thing affects New York on the state level since half of NYC's suburbs are in New Jersey and Connecticut.
The same is also true for the Bay Area, people may have left SF and San Jose proper but a lot of them simply moved to the surrounding suburban counties to still be close enough to these job centers while having more space and newer/cheaper housing options
third
Cool seeing the county I was born in on the list. Me and my wife left 6 or so years ago. Had our daughter in a different state and settled down. Those future tax dollars walking away from them.
We're also high earners so it must hurt even more. But I dont miss it. Eff NY. Paying so much in taxes to watch the homeless pleasure themselves in front of you on the train
bro said eff instead of f
It seems like we’re still seeing the lingering effects of 2020 where people moved away from cities for remote work or to find places where they weren’t cooped up in apartments during lockdowns (since none of the benefits of city living were available at that point). Will be interesting to see how things stack up by the end of this decade. I get the feeling city populations will recover and likely even surpass 2020 levels with how much young people and even millennial 30-40somethings still want to live in dense urban areas, although costs in NYC, SF, and Boston may still be too high for them to see the full benefits of this
I am surprised with Suffolk, county Massachusetts, explains why it is at the beginning of the video
People keep voting the same expecting things to change but are surprised when they don’t
Love your work and I appreciate your efforts to remain a political but clearly the woke policy of the places and the refusal to enforce the law and keep its citizens safe are the biggest reasons. Certainly cost of living is a factor but these places have always been high cost. People have been fleeing NY for Florida for nearly 70 years. Initially for weather and lower costs but now for the above reasons and the pace has increased greatly. And let’s not forget taxes. They are a major component of cost of living.
Lack of law enforcement, very high taxes (and getting almost nothing in return for it) and covid (the lockdowns/policies in blue states scared people off, as well as just covid spreading like wildfire in super densely populated areas like NYC.)
Conversely, the fact that people come from places where the Dem primary has been the *de facto* election forever don't particularly care for what happens where the GOP primary's been the *de facto* election since Nixon's Southern Strategy. That's led to a lot of places getting bluer when moderate/neo-prairie populist Democrats win against ultra-MAGA Republicans. People who move to a place for good schools don't vote for book-banners or those who use the fact that trans people exist and might theoretically want to play sports as an excuse to "inspect" little girls' genitals.
Drove on I-70 and I-55 in St. Louis a couple years ago, and it looked like a DUMP! I can understand why people leave.
Things aren’t much better here in Fairfax County, Virginia.
Northern Virginia is thriving. Another good county in NoVA is Loudon County, VA. However, both Fairfax and Loudon Counties are very expensive.
Wealthiest countries in the country @@CrystalClearWith8BE
I wish more people would leave here. It'd make rent cheaper
As far as I know, one of the best suburbs in Loudon County is Ashburn. What are the best suburbs in Fairfax County?
I HATED Virginia and their INSANE personal property tax on cars. I was visiting up there once and they attempted to ticket my car (registered in Texas) for not having a Loudoun County sticker. Having previously lived in Va Beach, I knew their greedy ploy, so I called the county and gave them an option for balancing the budget: ticket EVERY left-lane camper in the state. The registrar began laughing so loud she almost dropped the phone. “I hear you, honey, I hear you! Thank you for making my day with that laugh!”
A lot of New Yorks are leaving because they've realized that they can just hop over to NJ and CN and get the benefits of NYC without having to pay the NY taxes. It's not like the commute is going to be much worse given the ailing mass transit infrastructure.
hi im early
Climate is not a real reason people move. The weather in New York has always been as good/bad as it is now, and moreso, people have convenient AC and heating now. The South was barely habitable before AC. People move for economic and political reason. Weather/climate is a cope that many cities with losing populations will cite, but the people leaving Chicago are mostly moving to other midwestern states. People leaving NY are going to the south because the south is the closest place where the all the problems of NY aren't replicated, the climate is a post-hoc rationalization. Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine have all grown while NY and Boston have shrunk.
Not to be *that guy* but climate was a major reason why I moved from the Seattle area to southern Arizona. Seasonal depression is a real thing for me and the nice winter months here played a massive part in my decision making. Cost of living being a bit less was a bonus. The Mexican food here is another huge bonus.
The winters in NY are long (NY gets about 6 months of cold and snow a year, summer barely lasts 2 1/2 months) and can be a burden for some. Especially if one has seasonal depression. In the south, you don't have to waste time shoveling snow, fighting the snow and ice when you have to drive somewhere, get much more time outside etc.
@@johnchedsey1306 People forget that long gray winter, or spring, or fall days can wear on you. I suspect climate/weather might be a secondary reason for many people. I seem to recall a rush of people moving to North Dakota when there was a oil boom there some years back. Of course, it was for the prospect of high paying jobs, but it's not exactly tropical climate wise. After the oil boom played out, few stayed behind. Still, states like Texas and Arizona do have a number of transplants from Chicagoland and other nearby colder (and drearier) climes.
I think climate is absolutely a factor, but it's shown more in the long term picture. Not necessarily between one census and another.
My grandparents absolutely cited Pennsylvania winters as a reason for their move to South Carolina (aside from being close to the grandchildren). If cold weather wasn’t an issue, they might have moved to eastern Tennessee, but now they only regret not moving to the Appalachians because so many other Northerners moved to southeastern SC that it’s become crowded. Almost 200k people in Beaufort County alone.
I think you left out Los Angeles county.
nope but probably left out miami dade
The Bronx problem has nothing to do with AOC, right?
Is that her district? She could be part of the issue.
AOC is the symptom of the underlying problems. Bronx is probably known for being the poorest of the city boroughs, yet high real estate valuations did not spare the Bronx. The people least able to afford rent increases are the ones most likely to pack up and leave. After all, with city money, you can afford to outbid locals elsewhere, sometimes 2 times over sticker price, or offer cash upfront.
This is affecting states like TX and FL greatly, whose residents are getting priced out by big city residents with giant bags of money.
I’m conservative, but she’s not the reason people are moving out.
I’m conservative, but she’s not the reason people are moving out.
@@MileageMike485She lives in Queens, but her district mostly covers Bronx and a small area of Queens.
It's peculiar why so many are resigned to live on or near a major fault in the Earth's crust.
Because harbors there facilitated international trade that brought about rapid development for those cities (in addition to railroads connecting them with the rest of the continent), if you’re wondering about Los Angeles and San Francisco, which have historically been some of the busiest seaports along the American Pacific coast. And I guess people like the weather there better than in the Northeast.
If a lot of people live on a fault line, chances are there’s also a nearby coastline.
Baloney.
NO ONES LEAVING GLORIOUS MONMOUTH COUNTY NEW JERSEY!!!!
MONMOUTH COUNTY WILL BE A SUPERPOWER IN 2025!!!!
INDIA SUPERPOWER 2030
NC is ruining by these people
Trump 2024 btw
Yep. He’ll have the Nazi SS flag flying over the Capitol in no time. Then you’ll be sorry you voted for him.
I have a personal rant here:
People moving out from cities generally hike up the rates for everyone else living in the suburbs. I moved to NJ in 2015 where apartments were still somewhat affordable. Post-covid, I have no idea how I'm supposed to pay close to $1500 a month for a studio in a non-luxury apartment. I'm currently stuck living with my parents, unable to do anything about it.
If you ask me, I think things like rent need to be controlled by the government, rather than making it a supply/demand thing. We're not talking about capitalism here, we're talking about basic human necessities that are being taken away by some greedy folk.
Government interference is a large factor in why housing is so expensive (same reason why health care is so expensive.) We don't have a true free market when it comes to housing (or health care.) You live with your parents, but on the bright side, you will get to spend more time with them, something you will appreciate when you have to bury them later in life, something I learned that the hard way.
New York City has some rent controls. The insane demand is going to be the driving factor for high prices, but rent controls hurt developers who want to build.
I wish Fulton, Gwinnett, Cobb, DeKalb, Clayton, and Henry Counties in Georgia would lose population. Too many people here.
Fulton, DeKalb, and Clayton Counties are struggling very often. I realized that Gwinnett County is safe, but in Metro Atlanta, one county that's the best is Forsyth County.
Definitely feels like it when I’ve visited, but my grandmother and aunt have lived in DeKalb and Gwinnett respectively the last fifty years and they’re probably staying as long as they can.
To your credit, maybe the state government would care more for us all outside the Atlanta area if those Atlanta suburbanites ended up moving to the other great urban/suburban counties elsewhere throughout the state (Muscogee, Chatham, Richmond; might pass on Bibb, Clarke, and Dougherty, though). That or consent to smaller lot sizes for their properties (noticing how sumptuous a lot of them are in Gwinnett especially) and better residential planning, but they’d never do that.
3:13 OR-LEENS Parish is where New Or-lee-uhns is. 🫡