Nick. Great Video. I would be great if you could do a followup video on this area and talk about how sink holes effect home value in this area and the insurance risks and costs. Along with sink hole threats it would be helpful to talk about the weather threats and how they drive real estate value, insurance costs, and how the types of construction techniques mitigates these risks.
Yes - when I live in Brandon about 4 years ago, a man in Seffner lost his live when a sinkhole consumed him while he was sleeping. Yes - sinkholes are a BIG issue in Hillsborough County!
Interesting video I've been waiting for. I stopped looking for a house to buy weeks ago. My rent in 2017, 33635 in fact, 1 bedroom, $950, now, 33647, $1400 up. Houses I was looking in 2019, $160K, now $340K.
@@iwearpolo1 mistake and why ? if the properties condos or houses are waterfront they will appreciate for the next decade why ? no inventories + no new building licenses for water front condos in particular waterfront houses will be in millions so look and concentrate on condos i bought in 2005 several waterfront condos and till today i barely reached what i paid for them 1050 sqft 350 K zip 33707 now where is the appreciation of 16 years ? inland appreciation is between 3 to 5 % and waterfront appreciation is between 6 to 8 % a year you make the calculation OK listen to me buy waterfront properties zip code 33706 /33707 /33708 /33715 and do not worry a bit they will only appreciate as long as there is demand and no supply
I bought a house in Pasco Co on May 2021, it took me 3 months, over 70 views, and 12 offers to find that house after battling daily with sellers that where asking way too much over the market value. Completely crazy and unfair for a VA loan contender. I was lucky to get my house for exactly the same amount of what the appraisal was and in a great area. I was scared and didn't want to be in the hole especially if the market goes down. My realtor was pulling his hair off with all the madness but he did a great job and continued the battle till won.
I'm Currently looking in Pasco County. Also a VA Loan. It is insane right now. I may wait a year or two...If history teaches anything...Most homes sold right now will be underwater 2 years from now if 2008 repeats itself. Then I'll buy.
He’s 100% right I lived in Clearwater for half my life the whole town goes to sleep by 7 o’clock I’ve lived in Tampa for the past seven years it doesn’t sleep it’s so clear all people run Pinellas County young people run Hillsboro county
Pinellas County here. Moved to the area in 2012, rented until 2019 when we bought our home below market because we bought it from the owners. Our house has gained $100k in value this past year when compared to the market value it was evaluated at when we bought in 2019. It is crazy.
Considering lots of jobs are permanently remote, lots of people are relocating to FL to enjoy no income tax, great weather, area and freedom. I moved 6 month ago to Tampa (Love it!) and 2 of my colleagues are about to move from NYC. Also, wait for VR to enable seamless virtual meetings and collaboration... there will not bee any need to go back to office (few exceptions) Thats why prices keep growing.
Housing and Rental Apartments are at astronomical prices leaving many people homeless and mortgage/rent poor!!! Compared to the wages paid in Florida, this makes it extremely difficult for native Floridians to live. The problem is the investment and northerners purchasing property, reducing the availability for the people that actually live here year around. The rich and wealthy are buying up all the property. New apartments are being constructed but they are unattainable and unaffordable for the normal wage earner in Florida! This is leaving many people homeless, unable to buy and rent any housing! This also affects the elderly population, that are finding it hard to survive and live a comfortable life here in the Tampa Bay area. This is so so so sad! I myself am in this situation, it has not always been this way here. Places I have rented in the past have tripled in rents! Home prices have priced me out of even ever buying another home here in the Tampa area! Looks like I will have to move to another state!
I worked hard my whole life and have taken care of my family. You blame northerners. That’s absurd. People from all over including Florida are buying homes. What does complaining on TH-cam do for you? Work harder/ smarter and take care of your business just like the rest of us.
@@AreU4Real1 bs !!!! I’m a native Florida from manatee county , we literally just broke a record for people moving into the Lakewood area and now the number 1 place to moved to . People from California n New York are coming from high paying wage area and buying up everything. Our county roads can’t even keep up with the demand . It used to take me 20 minutes to get across town now it’s a hour+ . The houses market is so bad that people are selling home for triple the price!!!!!! You can’t find a 4 bedroom house without seeing a 450k plus price tag! . They’re building new cheap neighborhoods and apartments on every road now and most apartments are 1500 and up specially the new one . The cost of living has sky rocket so fast but wages haven’t moved yet with our local area
This was actually beginning three or more years ago! We lived in Palm Harbor/East Lake area. Northeasterners were moving in as cash buyers driving up the prices. We ended up leaving the area to go back to the Midwest. We now live on six acres in the country. We loved Tampa until we didn't anymore. It is really too bad...we had hoped to retire there. No more. So much building is displacing the poor wildlife. Really is too bad...
I am in the Tampa area(seasonal) ,migration and demographics do play a big role but migration is slowing and one bad hurricane season will slow it further.
So true. I read somewhere that typically every 10 years there is a big weather event that causes a mass migration OUT of Florida and somehow we missed that last 10 year iteration. It didn’t happen. So we have those people still in the mix.
I paid 68k for my house. It's worth just under 200k now. Would love to cash in, but of course moving anywhere else will cost me so doesn't make sense for me to do anything.
This is a great video and lots of great info. However a huge factor that is lacking in this video is the fact that Pinellas County specifically, but all of Tampa is HUGE on vacation properties and 2nd homes and how this affects the market.
I'm confused. I watched your "AUSTIN Housing Crash Imminent + Big Bubbles in 5 Cities" video where you said Home Price v. Rental Rates are a solid indicator. Tampa's was around 2%, which you considered low. Is the HP v. RP not really that effective?
I'd love to understand this as well. I just watched the Austin one. Tampa seemed to be in a good position relative to that information, but he predicts a 20% loss. Rents are definitely more than mortgages
If you want to move to Tampa area just find a good trailer park and pay 20K for a really decent trailer. Lot rent is usually under 500 depending on amenities. :)
Great video but you should have added Manatee and Polk County. Those two counties are bigger stakeholders to Hillsborough County than Hernando. Side note, the Tampa Metro is an awesome place to live but it is not for everyone. It's a love/hate type of place. As for buying strictly for investment, it is no different than other areas. But yes, this area got hammered in the last bubble so buying beware.
Everything is going up now in Tampa, majority of people from NYC, California, Arizona, New Jersey, Chicago.. are moving to Tampa.. that's why the market is going crazy .. I was trying to find another apartment in Tampa and the waiting list goes to November or December...
Supply and demand as a natural force is a myth there are millions of empty homes in America they just aren’t for sale driving the prices and you know once the Bubble pops it’s going to continue
Yes - the GREEDY investors buy up most homes and then sell or rent them even higher just by spending a few thousand on cosmetics. Where is the regulations?
I do believe homes vacant do exist, however being that Location is most important, places that are in high demand will always have less inventory avail. Tampa is one of the fastest growing cities on the east coast
Took a job in Tampa and just pulled into town last week! Looking to buy somewhere north of town like Lutz, Land O Lakes, Odessa, but at these prices it will be rough.
Great content and insight. Nobody’s talking about how these new homeowners are not going to be able to afford their higher escrows payments when their taxes and insurance adjust. The property tax reassessment rates of these new sales are going to be through the roof. Also homeowners insurance is increasing big-time. These new homeowners are going to be shocked when their escrow payment goes up $400 - $500 a month next year. The average first time home buyer can’t afford that.
@@reneemaimone5863 any time a property is sold the taxable value is reassessed. If home values are going up so are your taxes. Lenders calculate escrow payments based of the previous owners most recent tax bill. My current property tax bill is about $3200. If I sold at market value today (about $375000) the county estimates the taxes will adjust $4,997.91- $6,012.76. My insurance went up about $1000 this year. The Florida insurance market is a mess right now. A lender will adjust an escrow payment by the increased taxes & insurance and the short fall in your escrow account. Assuming my home’s scenario, the taxes and insurance increase by $3000. Lender will adjust the escrow payment by about $250 monthly and about $250 monthly to make up for the escrow short fall for not estimating the increased taxes and insurance. This is going to catch a lot of buyers off guard especially ones who already stretched their budget. This was not really a problem in the past because prices and taxes were not increasing as much. Insurance premiums have been pretty steady but are rising 20-30% this year and next.
Yes, we bought in Pinellas Co., Palm Harbor, in Lansbrook off of Eastlake in 2007! Zillow had our home at $750K. We were going to ride it to 1 million and sell! Being new owners, our taxes went from $6,000.00 OLD owners to $16K a year for us when it adjusted!! ! What a shock!!! Buyers beware!!!! This won't be fun!!!! :( We are now back in the Midwest living on a six acre farm. Taxes are 1,200.00 yearly. Do not regret the move back.
33647 New Tampa resident here. We bought our house in Dec.2019 for 370k 10k less than asking now it’s worth at least 470k maybe more with a bidding war. We don’t want to sell tho cuz we would actually be downsizing and get a worse house. We are in the suburbs so it’s nice and it was built in the mid 90’s but the neighborhood is growing
Keep building like in Southeast Florida (Miami, Broward & Palm Beach Counties) and pretty soon water will be a premium. And the result of draining the aquafer is salt water intrusion and more sinkholes in Central Florida. And traffic. Massive traffic problems like Miami and Broward.
Rent is crazy......... Fiances been in Tampa for 2 years. Her first one bed apartment which was undervalued but new she was paying $1250. After 15 months it was raised to 1500-1600. She stayed in same apartment complex and downsized to a studio which is currently $1250 but is going for 1600 now for new incoming residents. I move in with her in about 7 months from Htown and it looks like her old one bed that she paid 1250 for 1.3 years ago is now 1800 plus. We can afford it as we both have decent good paying jobs but I was expecting close to 1500 or so for a one bed.
I have a potentially great job opportunity in Saint Petersburg but I am beginning to realize that I may not be able to afford to rent or buy in this market being a single person with a single person income. So frustrating!
Everything is way over priced right now...The Job market in the Clearwater/St.Pete area is very good. During The Covid close down my company didn't miss a beat. Is all good except real estate.
I took a great job opportunity in 2018 straight out of college in St. Pete and life was pretty good for awhile. Finally after saving, getting raises, and becoming mentally prepared, I wanted to buy a house but even with all of that it's hard for me to afford anything now. Rent is crazy high as well so it's hard to save even with the huge raises my company granted us. I love it here but I am thinking about moving back the Midwest now so I can actually afford a decent home. Btw I am also single with a single person income and it's hard.
Hi, thanks for the effort you put on making this videos. Could you analyze the Miami market just like you did Tampa ? It would be extremely helpful. Thanks
2008 crash in Florida was due to the recession and the fact that most homes were 2nd homes. People walked away from their condos and 2nd homes to be able to keep their primary residence.
SO in your opinion people out of nowhere can just continue to purchase these homes at a skyrocketing price inflation. Home values will continue to raise to the moon. Family Salaries aren't going up at the rate of Houses. FHA is the new subprime. I'm sure these people buying at the PEAK of the market with practically zero down will never miss there mortgage payments down the road? Nothing to see here.
@@Alwaysbeclosing1774 FHA is backed by the US government. FHA has way more requirements and more strict on property and appraisal. I’m thinking 1/10 houses are selling with an FHA on a multiple offer situation due to having more buyers than sellers. In 2008 almost 80% of the buyers were investors, today it’s only 20-35%. There may be a chance we are in a bubble but it’s definitely not going to be near as dramatic as 2008, most likely it’s going to drop 15% max.
@@hectorprieto9767 Yeah I guess all these all cash offers to the moon are regular people and not investors. The first time home buyers I'm sure are fully qualified and vetted to be sure to make those mortgage payments on the severely over priced home they just bought. Nothing to see here. You're right. Let's not get carried away Hector. Let's say max 2% drop in the prices. Followed by another 40% uptick. Salaries aren't going up at those rates but houses are flying off the shelves like buy one get one free style. It's crazy how this time around we have SO many well qualified buyers. All during a pandemic too. The economy is booming. We're all good. Carry on.
@@Alwaysbeclosing1774 With all due respect Gregory, I work on real estate literally 10 hours a day and watch the market behavior every month. I'm not avoiding the likability of being in a bubble, but is not going to be worse than 2007 for the simple fact that interest rates are still but not above 3% would buyers pay over-asking on a home that they wont be able to pay? Conventional loans are the ones that listing agents prefer or obviously cash.
@@betterhomesandgardens3201 You work on real estate literally 10 hours a day and you also watch the market behavior every month? Okay thank goodness. I'm just glad to know that at this current rate of houses prices to the moon that by the end of 2022 my home should be worth close to a Million dollars. I paid 270K for it 7 years ago. The original sucker who bought the new construction home towards the end of 2006 paid 500K. I'm sure that guy wasn't working with real estate 10 hours a day and watching market behavior every month like you though. Other wise he would have dodged that bullet. Good for me though. Thanks for the inside tip. Million dollar home here I come! To the moon baby!
Just sold in mid April, a town just north of Tampa. The house sold in 2 days. It was built in 1963 with only a few updates. I loved the area, but it's ruined now. All the farmland gone, aggressive people from the northeast who drive as if someone is chasing to kill them, rude and pushy. It's a shame, but that's the reality.
My Wife and I are also looking to leave Florida because of the Huge Influx of people driving up the cost of everything . And driving anywhere is insane because of the traffic and getting worse . The true beauty of Florida is almost gone due to development . I agree with you that it really is a shame .
@@jaxxbrat2634 Not where I lived, in north Hillsborough county up near Pasco. It was a lot of farmland, not full of aggression, a very chill place to live. As I mentioned, it's now ruined.
@@TS-rd7oy Orlando is getting to be very similar. Traffic up, land down, and rude people. Probably those border crashers too! You r very rude! Go back to where you came from.
We moved to the Tampa area 2 years ago. Decided to rent then buy. Well it’s time for us. But is this a good time? Should we wait? We live it 34653 area and prices are crazy. Any ideas?
It's really tough to enter Tampa as a buyer right now. Whereas a place like Austin had its wild/crazy time in February and is now seeing price cuts, Tampa is having its crazy time now. There will likely be more inventory in 3-4 months.
Born and raised in Pinellas County and now live in Hillsborough county. Bought a house at the very end of 2015. The value of it has skyrocketed in that time. 68% growth in 5.5 years. Just remarkable.
Thank you for this info. We decided to wait on buying again. We bought in 2007 before the bubble bust and had to wait extra 2 years before we could sell and move to Florida. Don't want to be in that position again
I'm down in South Fort Myers and I hope it doesn't take 2 years for the Market to correct it's self. Hopefully by January - Wishful thinking but it just seems so crazy right now.
Great info here. As the appreciation of my home has been skyrocketing, I’ve given a lot of thought to selling and renting for a year or so. What are your thoughts on that?
My mom met a couple in California who did that. Long story short, they are homeless. They thought they would buy when the market calmed down. Years later, they still couldn’t buy anything and ended up living in their car.
@@Bielik672 Yes - it is a terrible thing - people thinking they can sell and make a large profit...but then the sellers have to become buyers or renters.....then they understand that there is nothing at all.
I am in Pasco county. All I can say is that pseudo appreciation is off the charts. A plot of land of less than 0.5 acre now sells for close to $100k - completely insane. My house is at 150% appreciation from five years ago, which means the county would want to ask for more tax money. All the pastures are now gone, leveled and are built upon with ugly houses. Roads are clogged with cars because of all the migration. There seems to be no end to this madness.
This breakdown is rad. Did you back test your homeowner age theory? I follow the logic that you use. However, does it hold water when you look at previous stats?
I bought my home in Tampa in 2016. It was one of the cheapest homes in my area, and was already at the upper limits of what I was approved for. It has nearly doubled in value since then, but my wages have only increased slightly. I couldn’t even afford to rent in my own neighborhood if I had to start over, let alone move into a new house. I’m basically stuck in my house.
@@ReventureConsulting I have a few older coworkers who make less than $20 an hour living in $600k+ homes in south Tampa, only because they bought their houses back in the 90s and have been trapped there since.
Thanks for the comment Jewel! I provide access to the data in 1-on-1 coaching sessions. If you are interested head to my website and submit a contact form!
Great video and I appreciate the hard work putting together and critically analyzing the data. Moved here from Dallas earlier this year and just bought a smallish 2k sf house in Land O Lakes. Only $30K over asking but still affordable and really like the area.
We bought a 2,000 sq. ft. house near Dallas for what you'd pay for a house half that size here in St. Pete. Housing is much more affordable there as well as the cost of living.
Nick, can you do a video on the risk/reward comparison of the different types of housing units ie condos, townhome, single family detached house, etc? I am wondering if I should sell my townhouse.
Thanks for the comment! Interesting idea for a video. Will consider it! High-level: condos are riskier than homes/townhomes because their value proposition compared to luxury apartment rentals isn't very high. They also come with hefty HOAs a lot of the time.
Retired home builder, owner in Dunedin, 34698. Houses get older and wear out but go UP in price? That is because debt is expanding in a debt bubble. The debt expands, the price increases, as the house wears out. Not very logical. Housing is a currency play, not a value play. My Tampa house was appraised at $85,000 in 2012, now $200,000, typical FL story. Boom and crash for one hundred years. Main thing is stay within your budget. Biggest trick is avoid free money disease and buy a place you love.
Bought a home in 2016 in Gibsonton for 234k, now worth 400k. I lived in the area for 21 years, and chose Gibsonton because it was quiet without a lot of traffic. I was wrong. They are building apartments, homes, schools on every free plot of land and traffic now is insane. At the same time they are not widening any roads.
Just bought a condo in a 55+ beach community. The price was 30-40% lower than non-55+ condos. Avg price for a approx 1400sqft beach condo was $550K-$650. Totally weird. Now, there are a lot of restrictions but certainly not worth ~$200K (the observed difference in the beach condos in Pinellas County). I felt the dif should be $20K-$30K.
tampa is beautiful and is also. fun. My mother on law always is moved to the coast. Stuart, port Saint lucie, the beach is not pretty and there is no medical services. Tampa is a weird animal. I live in Pasco County and I love it. Traffic is kind of crazy 🤪tons of people moving in this area because there is some affordable homes and great access to the beach. Pinellas County prices are getting really crazy up. good lucky if you are thinking to move to the tampa bay area. 😀 moved in here in 2012 and I love it.
I'm in Jacksonville and I know for sure we are baked here. The inflated valuations are outrageous, and proof that it is the value of your money, not your property. Be prepared for hyperinflation.
Honestly I think Hyperinflation is already here if not it's starting. It's crazy. I'm down in South Fort Myers and I can't believe what's going on. It's going to bust big.
Short version for anyone from NY, NJ, CT, PA, MI, IL, MA or OH - Tampa is a HORRIBLE place with MEGA-EXPENSIVE real estate that is surely going to LOSE VALUE so DEFINITELY DON'T MOVE THERE - STAY AWAY!!!! Wouldn't you be happier in California anyway?
@@ReventureConsulting Yes Jon Adkins is telling the truth - it is freaky expensive - I use to live in Brandon 4 years ago and I now could NEVER afford to buy the house I once owned. The traffic is horrendous!
Completely agree, wages in the Tampa Bay area do not justify the high rents. This might change in the future with more businesses moving here, but that is years down the line.
I live in Hillsborough south of Tampa in Riverview and it has blown up out here I'm trying to buy a house and I have waited just because the prices have gotten so high I'm thinking of moving the next county over to Polk county because it's so much cheaper and property taxes are much lower.
You are missing alot of information on your "data". A big reason why people are moving to the Tampa area is affordability (even the most appreciated homes in the last 5 years is a bargain compared to other cities), lifestyle, safety, beaches ect. I am from Miami where $500k gets you a toilet bowl in a crime infested neighborhood. I moved to the Tampa area 2 years ago and recently purchased a brand new house within walking distance to the beach in a great neighborhood with lots of beautiful trees and wildlife under $500k. A home of this caliber, quality and location in Miami will cost $2M if you are lucky. Also because Florida in general is a tax friendly state a lot of companies (specially tech) are moving from high tax bracket paying states and calling Tampa home and for this reason the migration will continue to grow further year after year. Tampa was voted the #1 city to live in Florida and #22 in the country. I can tell you from being a local that this is the best place to live and invest in the entire state.
@@ReventureConsulting Pasco county has had a lot of construction. Especially the east Pasco area. Hillsborough has seen some growth as well they are renovating South Tampa and downtown Tampa giving it new life. The areas surrounding Brandon FL which is in Hillsborough county has seen a lot of new homes pop up. I don’t know much about Pinellas I hardly venture over the bridge. Hernando still has a lot of potential it’s very rural out in those parts. I’m very interested in seeing what will happen in the coming years with all this new development happening.
@@scottie22 Believe they are building some type of overpass over 19 from Pasco down to Tampa. They talked of building it over East Lake/McMullen Booth Road and got shot down early on. I am not there anymore but keep watch through my old neighborhood, Nextdoor Lansbrook. Pasco Co, building is insane and the traffic is murder with all the of those passing through Pinellas from Pasco to get to Tampa. It was nuts a few years ago. Can only imagine the mess now!
I grew up in Tampa. The zip codes in magenta historically have been the cheapest most affordable areas. They may have more risk but also more reward as they are redeveloped. South Tampa is crazy expensive but blue. Our 900 sf home in south Tampa we bought in 2000 appreciated from 77k to 265k in 18 years. We are going to list our 1,350 sf condo in south St Pete for 140k. We bought in 2014 for 60k.
Have a town home in Hillsborough county. If the economy tanks and rates go up then it could get bad. Was down here during the last crash, then left. Now I'm back and not sure if I should sell, rent a while and wait to buy lower in South Tampa.
Moving out of the area..I wanted to build a few houses. Priced out, no margin. One thing to consider...if we have a cat 3 or cat 4. We will have 20 ft plus storm surges. A Katrina situation or worse. Going back north. Great city..love it here
I do agree with how bad a storm will be if the is a direct hit to Tampa/ Pinellas but there hasn’t been one in around 100 years and much of that has to do with Tampa’s very advantageous location as it is super rare that a storm forms that enters the gulf and doesn’t track due north or north west as they all seem to hit the panhandle or further out west between there and Texas.
Great info! I'm looking at buying a second home in NE St. Petersburg's area zip 33702 or 33701. This area is expensive compared to other area zips. Prices have increased 20% recently. Question, if a real-estate downturn is coming do you think this neighborhood will also see devaluations in the coming months/year? The neighborhood is in high demand and unique in terms of location and neighborhood look and feel.
Thanks for the comment, Stefano! I'm not sure on that specific location. But more generally - when a crash hits, everywhere in a metro will be impacted. But it's the areas with combination of 1) highest poverty rates, 2) biggest surge in appreciation, and 3) most new building that get hit hardest.
Can you do a video on the FL Panhandle? Prices have appreciated about 30-40% and holding steady. Port St. Joe, Cape San Blas, 30a, Destin, Santa Rosa Beach...
Have been checking properties in Sarasota, Florida and Lakewood Ranch, in particular. Can you present the same data for this location just like what you did for Tampa?
Bought a town-home to live in with my wife back in March 2020, it is in the 33609 zip code. This video is making me even more happy with my purchase then I already am. I hope to either rent out the property in the future or sell soon to realize the very sizable appreciation I have, based on comps in the area.
I've lived in St Pete my whole life. I hate it now. Grocery stores always packed. Theme parks are insane. All my fishing spots are ruined. Traffic's getting worse. I have to order online for things I had no problem buying in stores before. They're building up so much , I don't even recognize certain areas anymore. Like most people said Rents are ridiculously high. I lost a lot of work from out of state buyers out bidding my old boss.
True. I remember going to Fort Desoto in the last 60s and only the boat marina and a 7-11. Than they built condos on the old St Pete dump site. Lol, gone are the good old days.
Don't expect migration in Tampa to stay that way or going up because the wages doesn't support it. Just like the 2000s. In 2003 when I first moved to Florida there were many people that also moved there. In fact there were tons of people moving to Florida from 2000 to 2008 but then they discovered that the average wage in Florida was just $7 per hours and that doesn't even enough to pay for their monthly electricity bill that made them all moved back. I know that many of my neighbors that were moving from New York were not making it so they all left around 2008 and that's when the housing crashed started. While the housing and cost of living in Florida is increasing, the wages hasn't change much. This time the migration to Florida is because the baby boomers were retiring and they got money to spend but as soon as that money is gone, believe me, they will all move back to where they came from or to other states where the cost of living in less. Also there's the foreign investors and huge funds were buying properties left and right because they know that the baby boomers were heading there for retirement.
One thing that is different from your early 2000's to now that you're not accounting for, remote work. There are a lot of high income earners moving to Florida that are working for companies outside of Florida for factors like low taxes, low crime, weather and so on. Remote work has opened a lot of doors for workers that find good wages locally.
@@coldfire39 Sure, there's remote works that were there too in the 2000s but the wages were very low compares to other states. I still have families in Florida that still only work with Disney and Universal even though they have up to 3 degrees. So far none of them have finds remote work. In fact Call centers and financial advisors were remote works but they don't pay well. My nephew have a master in Business advertising and management, that would be good for remote work but he still working for Disney at only $13 per hour. And his rent is $1700 per month. My brother in law have a computer science degree and can't even find a good paying job in Florida until he move to Georgia. Don't forget to mention the tolls. I used to pay $300 per month in tolls back in 2003 not sure how much it is now but I am sure that the tolls are increasing every year. That's what my nephew told me. Even though there's no state tax but the tolls cost more than the state tax I am paying now in the state I am living in now. Where I live now I can easily find jobs that pay between $18 to $26 per hour but not in Florida. If a person with a Master degree cannot get $18 per hour in Florida that will not sustain the living situation in Florida for long.
I'm in knee of the magenta zip codes that you highlighted in St Petersburg. The areas closest to downtown have really becoming younger, but the remainder is quite old. This is such great information. I want to buy an investment property, and this gives me some additional food for thought.
If you want to invest in that area, I would OVERLAY the FLOOD ZONE maps on top of any other info. It is a "hidden cost". I purposely bought in Pinellas county along the mid-county ridge. 51' above sea level, no evac, non flood zone, 1.5 miles from the beach.
Excellent video. I lived through the crash in 2007 but in fact sold my home and made money before the market hit rock bottom. I lived in Westchase which is a large planned community northwest of the Airport. Will you be doing an analysis on the Sarasota area as well?
Pinellas county is a flippers paradise. There are many homes build in the 1920s-1960s. This means you can get a house that has not been renovated in decades. Bring the house up to date and resell. With the average age being 50 and a beach lazy feel most people want move in ready homes. Making flipping very lucrative. I am a stone and tile contractor in the Bay area. Non stop business for the last decade and I have not advertised once.
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Nick. Great Video. I would be great if you could do a followup video on this area and talk about how sink holes effect home value in this area and the insurance risks and costs. Along with sink hole threats it would be helpful to talk about the weather threats and how they drive real estate value, insurance costs, and how the types of construction techniques mitigates these risks.
Not in Tampa or clearwater. It's better then Miami and Orlando that are sinking and flooded . Hurricane don't really hit tampa area
Yes - when I live in Brandon about 4 years ago, a man in Seffner lost his live when a sinkhole consumed him while he was sleeping. Yes - sinkholes are a BIG issue in Hillsborough County!
Interesting video I've been waiting for. I stopped looking for a house to buy weeks ago. My rent in 2017, 33635 in fact, 1 bedroom, $950, now, 33647, $1400 up. Houses I was looking in 2019, $160K, now $340K.
Yeah I’m a agent and I told all my friends and family to not buy now at all
It’s crazy here in Tampa area😳
@@iwearpolo1 mistake and why ? if the properties condos or houses are waterfront they will appreciate for the next decade why ? no inventories + no new building licenses for water front condos in particular waterfront houses will be in millions so look and concentrate on condos i bought in 2005 several waterfront condos and till today i barely reached what i paid for them 1050 sqft 350 K zip 33707 now where is the appreciation of 16 years ? inland appreciation is between 3 to 5 % and waterfront appreciation is between 6 to 8 % a year you make the calculation OK listen to me buy waterfront properties zip code 33706 /33707 /33708 /33715 and do not worry a bit they will only appreciate as long as there is demand and no supply
I bought a house in Pasco Co on May 2021, it took me 3 months, over 70 views, and 12 offers to find that house after battling daily with sellers that where asking way too much over the market value. Completely crazy and unfair for a VA loan contender. I was lucky to get my house for exactly the same amount of what the appraisal was and in a great area. I was scared and didn't want to be in the hole especially if the market goes down. My realtor was pulling his hair off with all the madness but he did a great job and continued the battle till won.
I'm Currently looking in Pasco County. Also a VA Loan. It is insane right now. I may wait a year or two...If history teaches anything...Most homes sold right now will be underwater 2 years from now if 2008 repeats itself. Then I'll buy.
He’s 100% right I lived in Clearwater for half my life the whole town goes to sleep by 7 o’clock I’ve lived in Tampa for the past seven years it doesn’t sleep it’s so clear all people run Pinellas County young people run Hillsboro county
Pinellas County here. Moved to the area in 2012, rented until 2019 when we bought our home below market because we bought it from the owners. Our house has gained $100k in value this past year when compared to the market value it was evaluated at when we bought in 2019. It is crazy.
Considering lots of jobs are permanently remote, lots of people are relocating to FL to enjoy no income tax, great weather, area and freedom.
I moved 6 month ago to Tampa (Love it!) and 2 of my colleagues are about to move from NYC.
Also, wait for VR to enable seamless virtual meetings and collaboration... there will not bee any need to go back to office (few exceptions)
Thats why prices keep growing.
Housing and Rental Apartments are at astronomical prices leaving many people homeless and mortgage/rent poor!!! Compared to the wages paid in Florida, this makes it extremely difficult for native Floridians to live. The problem is the investment and northerners purchasing property, reducing the availability for the people that actually live here year around. The rich and wealthy are buying up all the property. New apartments are being constructed but they are unattainable and unaffordable for the normal wage earner in Florida! This is leaving many people homeless, unable to buy and rent any housing! This also affects the elderly population, that are finding it hard to survive and live a comfortable life here in the Tampa Bay area. This is so so so sad! I myself am in this situation, it has not always been this way here. Places I have rented in the past have tripled in rents! Home prices have priced me out of even ever buying another home here in the Tampa area! Looks like I will have to move to another state!
It is sad to read this, I see it every day😔
I worked hard my whole life and have taken care of my family. You blame northerners. That’s absurd. People from all over including Florida are buying homes. What does complaining on TH-cam do for you? Work harder/ smarter and take care of your business just like the rest of us.
@@AreU4Real1 bs !!!! I’m a native Florida from manatee county , we literally just broke a record for people moving into the Lakewood area and now the number 1 place to moved to . People from California n New York are coming from high paying wage area and buying up everything. Our county roads can’t even keep up with the demand . It used to take me 20 minutes to get across town now it’s a hour+ . The houses market is so bad that people are selling home for triple the price!!!!!! You can’t find a 4 bedroom house without seeing a 450k plus price tag! . They’re building new cheap neighborhoods and apartments on every road now and most apartments are 1500 and up specially the new one . The cost of living has sky rocket so fast but wages haven’t moved yet with our local area
@@leekh-a3933 sure thing Spanky
This was actually beginning three or more years ago! We lived in Palm Harbor/East Lake area. Northeasterners were moving in as cash buyers driving up the prices. We ended up leaving the area to go back to the Midwest. We now live on six acres in the country. We loved Tampa until we didn't anymore. It is really too bad...we had hoped to retire there. No more. So much building is displacing the poor wildlife. Really is too bad...
Can you do the Palm city/Stuart/Port Saint Lucie area?
I am in the Tampa area(seasonal) ,migration and demographics do play a big role but migration is slowing and one bad hurricane season will slow it further.
So true. I read somewhere that typically every 10 years there is a big weather event that causes a mass migration OUT of Florida and somehow we missed that last 10 year iteration. It didn’t happen. So we have those people still in the mix.
I paid 68k for my house. It's worth just under 200k now. Would love to cash in, but of course moving anywhere else will cost me so doesn't make sense for me to do anything.
That makes sense! Many are in a similar position to you. It will be interesting to see how this attitude changes once prices start declining.
What the hell... sell and go rent somewhere? Get that $$
@@alden2826 Why would I rent when rent around me is twice the amount a mortgage would be? I own my house flat out. Why would I want a bill?
@@thedude2897 do you own any rentals?
@@alden2826 I don't
This is a great video and lots of great info. However a huge factor that is lacking in this video is the fact that Pinellas County specifically, but all of Tampa is HUGE on vacation properties and 2nd homes and how this affects the market.
I'm confused. I watched your "AUSTIN Housing Crash Imminent + Big Bubbles in 5 Cities" video where you said Home Price v. Rental Rates are a solid indicator. Tampa's was around 2%, which you considered low. Is the HP v. RP not really that effective?
I'd love to understand this as well. I just watched the Austin one. Tampa seemed to be in a good position relative to that information, but he predicts a 20% loss. Rents are definitely more than mortgages
If you want to move to Tampa area just find a good trailer park and pay 20K for a really decent trailer. Lot rent is usually under 500 depending on amenities. :)
Great video but you should have added Manatee and Polk County. Those two counties are bigger stakeholders to Hillsborough County than Hernando. Side note, the Tampa Metro is an awesome place to live but it is not for everyone. It's a love/hate type of place. As for buying strictly for investment, it is no different than other areas. But yes, this area got hammered in the last bubble so buying beware.
Thanks for the insight!
In Florida, the more you go South, the higher the property value.
@@william-fla-321 only along the coast. Bartow and Okeechobee are inexpensive.
@@Watermelon_Shuga True
@@Watermelon_Shuga Not sure who would want to live in Bartow? :(
My rent just got increased from 1544 to 2048. 2 bedroom in Pinellas. Not even a super nice complex. Insanity.
Everything is going up now in Tampa, majority of people from NYC, California, Arizona, New Jersey, Chicago.. are moving to Tampa.. that's why the market is going crazy .. I was trying to find another apartment in Tampa and the waiting list goes to November or December...
My one bedroom that I pay 1560$ in Clearwater is now 2125$ for new leases
@@dino_botsdino578 I have no clue why everyone is moving to this area. The summers are depressing with the constant afternoon rain.
@@Trtevoorryu Horrible traffic and horribly hot, too!
What about low supply and homes being bought by investors keeping supply low
Supply and demand as a natural force is a myth there are millions of empty homes in America they just aren’t for sale driving the prices and you know once the Bubble pops it’s going to continue
Yes - the GREEDY investors buy up most homes and then sell or rent them even higher just by spending a few thousand on cosmetics. Where is the regulations?
I do believe homes vacant do exist, however being that Location is most important, places that are in high demand will always have less inventory avail. Tampa is one of the fastest growing cities on the east coast
@@hecarmaldonado Tampa is on the West Coast.
Correct @@caroletta451 of florida. However I was speaking in terms of the Whole U.S.
Took a job in Tampa and just pulled into town last week! Looking to buy somewhere north of town like Lutz, Land O Lakes, Odessa, but at these prices it will be rough.
Great content and insight. Nobody’s talking about how these new homeowners are not going to be able to afford their higher escrows payments when their taxes and insurance adjust. The property tax reassessment rates of these new sales are going to be through the roof. Also homeowners insurance is increasing big-time. These new homeowners are going to be shocked when their escrow payment goes up $400 - $500 a month next year. The average first time home buyer can’t afford that.
Great points Andrew!
What substantiates the hike next year? What makes you certain?
@@reneemaimone5863 any time a property is sold the taxable value is reassessed. If home values are going up so are your taxes. Lenders calculate escrow payments based of the previous owners most recent tax bill. My current property tax bill is about $3200. If I sold at market value today (about $375000) the county estimates the taxes will adjust $4,997.91- $6,012.76. My insurance went up about $1000 this year. The Florida insurance market is a mess right now. A lender will adjust an escrow payment by the increased taxes & insurance and the short fall in your escrow account. Assuming my home’s scenario, the taxes and insurance increase by $3000. Lender will adjust the escrow payment by about $250 monthly and about $250 monthly to make up for the escrow short fall for not estimating the increased taxes and insurance. This is going to catch a lot of buyers off guard especially ones who already stretched their budget. This was not really a problem in the past because prices and taxes were not increasing as much. Insurance premiums have been pretty steady but are rising 20-30% this year and next.
Yes, we bought in Pinellas Co., Palm Harbor, in Lansbrook off of Eastlake in 2007! Zillow had our home at $750K. We were going to ride it to 1 million and sell! Being new owners, our taxes went from $6,000.00 OLD owners to $16K a year for us when it adjusted!! ! What a shock!!! Buyers beware!!!! This won't be fun!!!! :( We are now back in the Midwest living on a six acre farm. Taxes are 1,200.00 yearly. Do not regret the move back.
33647 New Tampa resident here. We bought our house in Dec.2019 for 370k 10k less than asking now it’s worth at least 470k maybe more with a bidding war. We don’t want to sell tho cuz we would actually be downsizing and get a worse house. We are in the suburbs so it’s nice and it was built in the mid 90’s but the neighborhood is growing
Keep building like in Southeast Florida (Miami, Broward & Palm Beach Counties) and pretty soon water will be a premium. And the result of draining the aquafer is salt water intrusion and more sinkholes in Central Florida. And traffic. Massive traffic problems like Miami and Broward.
You open my mind to new world, “ what you need to know before buying a house, what you need to look first”
I'm moving to Tampa soon. The rents are outrageous now. The house prices are even worse. I will be renting for now.
I'm almost complete with my duplex build in Ybor. 3 bedroom/2 bath. Let me know if you're interested in renting one unit!
@@donshah1709 hey I’ll take a look how much is it
Rent is crazy......... Fiances been in Tampa for 2 years. Her first one bed apartment which was undervalued but new she was paying $1250. After 15 months it was raised to 1500-1600. She stayed in same apartment complex and downsized to a studio which is currently $1250 but is going for 1600 now for new incoming residents. I move in with her in about 7 months from Htown and it looks like her old one bed that she paid 1250 for 1.3 years ago is now 1800 plus. We can afford it as we both have decent good paying jobs but I was expecting close to 1500 or so for a one bed.
@@hz1056 Wow- just curious what location of tampa is this? I'm in the Riverview area myself.
@@mikatalk6025 South Tampa about 10 mins from the base.
I have a potentially great job opportunity in Saint Petersburg but I am beginning to realize that I may not be able to afford to rent or buy in this market being a single person with a single person income. So frustrating!
i have a rental in river view let me know if anything
Everything is way over priced right now...The Job market in the Clearwater/St.Pete area is very good. During The Covid close down my company didn't miss a beat. Is all good except real estate.
I took a great job opportunity in 2018 straight out of college in St. Pete and life was pretty good for awhile. Finally after saving, getting raises, and becoming mentally prepared, I wanted to buy a house but even with all of that it's hard for me to afford anything now. Rent is crazy high as well so it's hard to save even with the huge raises my company granted us. I love it here but I am thinking about moving back the Midwest now so I can actually afford a decent home. Btw I am also single with a single person income and it's hard.
Hi, thanks for the effort you put on making this videos. Could you analyze the Miami market just like you did Tampa ? It would be extremely helpful. Thanks
2008 crash in Florida was due to the recession and the fact that most homes were 2nd homes.
People walked away from their condos and 2nd homes to be able to keep their primary residence.
SO in your opinion people out of nowhere can just continue to purchase these homes at a skyrocketing price inflation. Home values will continue to raise to the moon. Family Salaries aren't going up at the rate of Houses. FHA is the new subprime. I'm sure these people buying at the PEAK of the market with practically zero down will never miss there mortgage payments down the road? Nothing to see here.
@@Alwaysbeclosing1774 FHA is backed by the US government. FHA has way more requirements and more strict on property and appraisal. I’m thinking 1/10 houses are selling with an FHA on a multiple offer situation due to having more buyers than sellers. In 2008 almost 80% of the buyers were investors, today it’s only 20-35%. There may be a chance we are in a bubble but it’s definitely not going to be near as dramatic as 2008, most likely it’s going to drop 15% max.
@@hectorprieto9767 Yeah I guess all these all cash offers to the moon are regular people and not investors. The first time home buyers I'm sure are fully qualified and vetted to be sure to make those mortgage payments on the severely over priced home they just bought. Nothing to see here. You're right. Let's not get carried away Hector. Let's say max 2% drop in the prices. Followed by another 40% uptick. Salaries aren't going up at those rates but houses are flying off the shelves like buy one get one free style. It's crazy how this time around we have SO many well qualified buyers. All during a pandemic too. The economy is booming. We're all good. Carry on.
@@Alwaysbeclosing1774 With all due respect Gregory, I work on real estate literally 10 hours a day and watch the market behavior every month. I'm not avoiding the likability of being in a bubble, but is not going to be worse than 2007 for the simple fact that interest rates are still but not above 3% would buyers pay over-asking on a home that they wont be able to pay? Conventional loans are the ones that listing agents prefer or obviously cash.
@@betterhomesandgardens3201 You work on real estate literally 10 hours a day and you also watch the market behavior every month? Okay thank goodness. I'm just glad to know that at this current rate of houses prices to the moon that by the end of 2022 my home should be worth close to a Million dollars. I paid 270K for it 7 years ago. The original sucker who bought the new construction home towards the end of 2006 paid 500K. I'm sure that guy wasn't working with real estate 10 hours a day and watching market behavior every month like you though. Other wise he would have dodged that bullet. Good for me though. Thanks for the inside tip. Million dollar home here I come! To the moon baby!
Just sold in mid April, a town just north of Tampa. The house sold in 2 days. It was built in 1963 with only a few updates. I loved the area, but it's ruined now. All the farmland gone, aggressive people from the northeast who drive as if someone is chasing to kill them, rude and pushy. It's a shame, but that's the reality.
My Wife and I are also looking to leave Florida because of the Huge Influx of people driving up the cost of everything . And driving anywhere is insane because of the traffic and getting worse . The true beauty of Florida is almost gone due to development . I agree with you that it really is a shame .
I dont remember Florida in last 20yrs not having mad drivers
@T Yes, you prove my point. A lot of ugly there now. I'll bet you're one of those northeast people I mentioned.
@@jaxxbrat2634 Not where I lived, in north Hillsborough county up near Pasco. It was a lot of farmland, not full of aggression, a very chill place to live. As I mentioned, it's now ruined.
@@TS-rd7oy Orlando is getting to be very similar. Traffic up, land down, and rude people. Probably those border crashers too! You r very rude! Go back to where you came from.
We moved to the Tampa area 2 years ago. Decided to rent then buy. Well it’s time for us. But is this a good time? Should we wait? We live it 34653 area and prices are crazy. Any ideas?
It's really tough to enter Tampa as a buyer right now. Whereas a place like Austin had its wild/crazy time in February and is now seeing price cuts, Tampa is having its crazy time now. There will likely be more inventory in 3-4 months.
@@ReventureConsulting that’s what I’m holding out for. Hope your right!
Born and raised in Pinellas County and now live in Hillsborough county. Bought a house at the very end of 2015. The value of it has skyrocketed in that time. 68% growth in 5.5 years. Just remarkable.
Thank you for this info. We decided to wait on buying again. We bought in 2007 before the bubble bust and had to wait extra 2 years before we could sell and move to Florida. Don't want to be in that position again
Thanks for the comment and insight Fred! Buying at sky high prices can be very risky.
@@ReventureConsulting Yeah...and you should be truthful to people about the real estate market in Tampa.
Very informative video.Thank You.
Living in Tampa, definitely waiting at least 2 years to see how the market goes because it's very inflated right now.
You are right. Homes in my area that are 1100sqft are going for 300k
A house next door just sold for 350,000. In 2012 the house was on the market for 37,000.
I'm down in South Fort Myers and I hope it doesn't take 2 years for the Market to correct it's self. Hopefully by January - Wishful thinking but it just seems so crazy right now.
Great info here. As the appreciation of my home has been skyrocketing, I’ve given a lot of thought to selling and renting for a year or so. What are your thoughts on that?
My mom met a couple in California who did that. Long story short, they are homeless. They thought they would buy when the market calmed down. Years later, they still couldn’t buy anything and ended up living in their car.
@@Bielik672 Yes - it is a terrible thing - people thinking they can sell and make a large profit...but then the sellers have to become buyers or renters.....then they understand that there is nothing at all.
Can you do one of these on the Palm Beach and surrounding Counties. What a great video!!!!
I am in Pasco county. All I can say is that pseudo appreciation is off the charts. A plot of land of less than 0.5 acre now sells for close to $100k - completely insane. My house is at 150% appreciation from five years ago, which means the county would want to ask for more tax money. All the pastures are now gone, leveled and are built upon with ugly houses. Roads are clogged with cars because of all the migration. There seems to be no end to this madness.
Thanks for the insight!
This breakdown is rad. Did you back test your homeowner age theory? I follow the logic that you use. However, does it hold water when you look at previous stats?
I bought my home in Tampa in 2016. It was one of the cheapest homes in my area, and was already at the upper limits of what I was approved for. It has nearly doubled in value since then, but my wages have only increased slightly. I couldn’t even afford to rent in my own neighborhood if I had to start over, let alone move into a new house. I’m basically stuck in my house.
Thanks for the comment Dan! It's interesting how many people who bought 3-4 years back keep saying "I couldn't afford to rent/own today".
@@ReventureConsulting I have a few older coworkers who make less than $20 an hour living in $600k+ homes in south Tampa, only because they bought their houses back in the 90s and have been trapped there since.
@@DanRichter Then can they keep up with the ever increasing property tax?
@@martincstee5335 I mean that’s relatively little, maybe $400 per month or less with Florida’s homestead exception.
Great INFO I think Cape Coral FL is going Bust in 18 months
Excellent presentation. Thanks.
Good information here. Thanks. How about Orlando?
Hello NIck Thanks for the great info. Where could I get some of the graphs or maps that you used? Id like to study
Thanks for the comment Jewel! I provide access to the data in 1-on-1 coaching sessions. If you are interested head to my website and submit a contact form!
Great video and I appreciate the hard work putting together and critically analyzing the data. Moved here from Dallas earlier this year and just bought a smallish 2k sf house in Land O Lakes. Only $30K over asking but still affordable and really like the area.
Thanks for the comment Terry! Congrats on your purchase.
Oh only 30 grand over asking but still affordable? Guess affordable is relative.
We bought a 2,000 sq. ft. house near Dallas for what you'd pay for a house half that size here in St. Pete. Housing is much more affordable there as well as the cost of living.
Great video. Can you do a deep dive on Raleigh, NC or Columbus, OH?
I also need this
Nick, can you do a video on the risk/reward comparison of the different types of housing units ie condos, townhome, single family detached house, etc? I am wondering if I should sell my townhouse.
Thanks for the comment! Interesting idea for a video. Will consider it! High-level: condos are riskier than homes/townhomes because their value proposition compared to luxury apartment rentals isn't very high. They also come with hefty HOAs a lot of the time.
You are good! Your data is so thoroughly!
I have lived in So Cal 38 years and the so ca vid was spot on !
Retired home builder, owner in Dunedin, 34698. Houses get older and wear out but go UP in price? That is because debt is expanding in a debt bubble. The debt expands, the price increases, as the house wears out. Not very logical. Housing is a currency play, not a value play. My Tampa house was appraised at $85,000 in 2012, now $200,000, typical FL story. Boom and crash for one hundred years. Main thing is stay within your budget. Biggest trick is avoid free money disease and buy a place you love.
Bought a home in 2016 in Gibsonton for 234k, now worth 400k. I lived in the area for 21 years, and chose Gibsonton because it was quiet without a lot of traffic. I was wrong. They are building apartments, homes, schools on every free plot of land and traffic now is insane. At the same time they are not widening any roads.
Just bought a condo in a 55+ beach community. The price was 30-40% lower than non-55+ condos. Avg price for a approx 1400sqft beach condo was $550K-$650. Totally weird. Now, there are a lot of restrictions but certainly not worth ~$200K (the observed difference in the beach condos in Pinellas County). I felt the dif should be $20K-$30K.
Venice area the prices are crazy high also for terrible homes.
tampa is beautiful and is also. fun. My mother on law always is moved to the coast. Stuart, port Saint lucie,
the beach is not pretty and there is no medical services. Tampa is a weird animal. I live in Pasco County and I love it. Traffic is kind of crazy 🤪tons of people moving in this area because there is some affordable homes and great access to the beach. Pinellas County prices are getting really crazy up. good lucky if you are thinking to move to the tampa bay area. 😀 moved in here in 2012 and I love it.
Material price increase causing price increase as well In existing homes as well
I'm in Jacksonville and I know for sure we are baked here. The inflated valuations are outrageous, and proof that it is the value of your money, not your property. Be prepared for hyperinflation.
Thanks for the comment! I am also getting concerned about Jacksonville. So much new building occurring!
Honestly I think Hyperinflation is already here if not it's starting. It's crazy. I'm down in South Fort Myers and I can't believe what's going on. It's going to bust big.
@@Alwaysbeclosing1774 Young folks are taking on massive debt and living on hope and a prayer. Sadly, they will be crushed first. Nothing is stable.
Do I buy or hold on a New contruction in Hernando County. Thank for the great content.
I live in tampa. Have couple of investment. Should I sell now to have more cash to buy when the crash comes?
You should have panned down on the map and briefly covered Manatee and Sarasota counties (also greater Tampa MSA).
100% agree - Sarasota is more of a market than Hernando and Pasco combined
Super aggressive market in Sarasota
Sarasota traffic to and from Tampa is insane.
Yeah don't think he lives here LOL
where can i find this map that has the zip codes, value of 2016. value of 2020 and growth %?
I am a new subscriber here and appreciate the granular quality you provide. Excellent analysis.
Thanks Jim!1
Thanks for the info! Looking to relocate from Boston.
Short version for anyone from NY, NJ, CT, PA, MI, IL, MA or OH - Tampa is a HORRIBLE place with MEGA-EXPENSIVE real estate that is surely going to LOSE VALUE so DEFINITELY DON'T MOVE THERE - STAY AWAY!!!! Wouldn't you be happier in California anyway?
Haha!
@@ReventureConsulting Yes Jon Adkins is telling the truth - it is freaky expensive - I use to live in Brandon 4 years ago and I now could NEVER afford to buy the house I once owned. The traffic is horrendous!
You are absolutely correct!
Thanks for your insight.. Patiently waiting for stabilization and a cool down as we're looking to move to The Villages.
I'm looking for a home but cannot afford the high prices 😫 thanks for sharing this video.
Tampa jobs pay very low wages so buyers need to have lots of cash since they aren’t earning much there.
Completely agree, wages in the Tampa Bay area do not justify the high rents. This might change in the future with more businesses moving here, but that is years down the line.
Exactly! It's disgusting. I'm a Floridian and had to leave my teaching job and start my own business. You can't afford to live here.
Yeah it’s bad here
100% with you here. The phrase “it’s a no income tax state” only goes so far.
I live in Hillsborough south of Tampa in Riverview and it has blown up out here I'm trying to buy a house and I have waited just because the prices have gotten so high I'm thinking of moving the next county over to Polk county because it's so much cheaper and property taxes are much lower.
Thanks for the comment Rashard! Hopefully prices become more affordable soon!
Good move
You are missing alot of information on your "data". A big reason why people are moving to the Tampa area is affordability (even the most appreciated homes in the last 5 years is a bargain compared to other cities), lifestyle, safety, beaches ect. I am from Miami where $500k gets you a toilet bowl in a crime infested neighborhood. I moved to the Tampa area 2 years ago and recently purchased a brand new house within walking distance to the beach in a great neighborhood with lots of beautiful trees and wildlife under $500k. A home of this caliber, quality and location in Miami will cost $2M if you are lucky. Also because Florida in general is a tax friendly state a lot of companies (specially tech) are moving from high tax bracket paying states and calling Tampa home and for this reason the migration will continue to grow further year after year. Tampa was voted the #1 city to live in Florida and #22 in the country. I can tell you from being a local that this is the best place to live and invest in the entire state.
Agreed. +++
They are over building right now. I’ve never seen so many apartments and new subdivisions in the past 3 years being built
Thanks for the feedback! Is it in a particular part of the metro?
@@ReventureConsulting Pasco county has had a lot of construction. Especially the east Pasco area. Hillsborough has seen some growth as well they are renovating South Tampa and downtown Tampa giving it new life. The areas surrounding Brandon FL which is in Hillsborough county has seen a lot of new homes pop up. I don’t know much about Pinellas I hardly venture over the bridge. Hernando still has a lot of potential it’s very rural out in those parts. I’m very interested in seeing what will happen in the coming years with all this new development happening.
@@scottie22 Believe they are building some type of overpass over 19 from Pasco down to Tampa. They talked of building it over East Lake/McMullen Booth Road and got shot down early on. I am not there anymore but keep watch through my old neighborhood, Nextdoor Lansbrook. Pasco Co, building is insane and the traffic is murder with all the of those passing through Pinellas from Pasco to get to Tampa. It was nuts a few years ago. Can only imagine the mess now!
not one mention of the federal reserve low interest rates and how they can crash the market today by raising rates. This is what happened in 2007
What is this website with map of home price appreciation?
I grew up in Tampa. The zip codes in magenta historically have been the cheapest most affordable areas. They may have more risk but also more reward as they are redeveloped. South Tampa is crazy expensive but blue. Our 900 sf home in south Tampa we bought in 2000 appreciated from 77k to 265k in 18 years. We are going to list our 1,350 sf condo in south St Pete for 140k. We bought in 2014 for 60k.
Have you done in depth in Sarasota county, specifically downtown and the beaches?
Very informative thank you
We bought our condo 7 years ago for $83,000 and sold it last week for $179,000 to offer pad.
Congrats! What city?
Have a town home in Hillsborough county. If the economy tanks and rates go up then it could get bad. Was down here during the last crash, then left. Now I'm back and not sure if I should sell, rent a while and wait to buy lower in South Tampa.
Exactly happened to me....
Sell now.
Have you done a video similar to this one for Sarasota County?
How about the Atlantic side ? Fort Lauderdale, West palm Beach, Miami ?
What tool do you use to get the data for those awesome graphs?
Yes! I’d be interested in this as well
Moving out of the area..I wanted to build a few houses. Priced out, no margin.
One thing to consider...if we have a cat 3 or cat 4. We will have 20 ft plus storm surges. A Katrina situation or worse.
Going back north. Great city..love it here
I do agree with how bad a storm will be if the is a direct hit to Tampa/ Pinellas but there hasn’t been one in around 100 years and much of that has to do with Tampa’s very advantageous location as it is super rare that a storm forms that enters the gulf and doesn’t track due north or north west as they all seem to hit the panhandle or further out west between there and Texas.
Would it be better to have a house built on vacant land now that lumber prices are dropping? Less chance of losing equity when the market crashes?
Great info! I'm looking at buying a second home in NE St. Petersburg's area zip 33702 or 33701. This area is expensive compared to other area zips. Prices have increased 20% recently. Question, if a real-estate downturn is coming do you think this neighborhood will also see devaluations in the coming months/year? The neighborhood is in high demand and unique in terms of location and neighborhood look and feel.
Thanks for the comment, Stefano! I'm not sure on that specific location. But more generally - when a crash hits, everywhere in a metro will be impacted. But it's the areas with combination of 1) highest poverty rates, 2) biggest surge in appreciation, and 3) most new building that get hit hardest.
I love this guy, great data!!!
Can you do a video on the FL Panhandle? Prices have appreciated about 30-40% and holding steady. Port St. Joe, Cape San Blas, 30a, Destin, Santa Rosa Beach...
Have been checking properties in Sarasota, Florida and Lakewood Ranch, in particular. Can you present the same data for this location just like what you did for Tampa?
Bought a town-home to live in with my wife back in March 2020, it is in the 33609 zip code. This video is making me even more happy with my purchase then I already am. I hope to either rent out the property in the future or sell soon to realize the very sizable appreciation I have, based on comps in the area.
There’s only a limited amount of coastline with all the great experiences you can have here in St. Pete, ChampaBay for example.
Please do a similar video on Palm Beach County Fl. Thank you
I've lived in St Pete my whole life. I hate it now. Grocery stores always packed. Theme parks are insane. All my fishing spots are ruined. Traffic's getting worse. I have to order online for things I had no problem buying in stores before. They're building up so much , I don't even recognize certain areas anymore. Like most people said Rents are ridiculously high. I lost a lot of work from out of state buyers out bidding my old boss.
True. I remember going to Fort Desoto in the last 60s and only the boat marina and a 7-11. Than they built condos on the old St Pete dump site. Lol, gone are the good old days.
Don't expect migration in Tampa to stay that way or going up because the wages doesn't support it. Just like the 2000s. In 2003 when I first moved to Florida there were many people that also moved there. In fact there were tons of people moving to Florida from 2000 to 2008 but then they discovered that the average wage in Florida was just $7 per hours and that doesn't even enough to pay for their monthly electricity bill that made them all moved back. I know that many of my neighbors that were moving from New York were not making it so they all left around 2008 and that's when the housing crashed started. While the housing and cost of living in Florida is increasing, the wages hasn't change much. This time the migration to Florida is because the baby boomers were retiring and they got money to spend but as soon as that money is gone, believe me, they will all move back to where they came from or to other states where the cost of living in less. Also there's the foreign investors and huge funds were buying properties left and right because they know that the baby boomers were heading there for retirement.
Thank you for the local insight Vitra!
One thing that is different from your early 2000's to now that you're not accounting for, remote work. There are a lot of high income earners moving to Florida that are working for companies outside of Florida for factors like low taxes, low crime, weather and so on. Remote work has opened a lot of doors for workers that find good wages locally.
@@coldfire39 Sure, there's remote works that were there too in the 2000s but the wages were very low compares to other states. I still have families in Florida that still only work with Disney and Universal even though they have up to 3 degrees. So far none of them have finds remote work. In fact Call centers and financial advisors were remote works but they don't pay well. My nephew have a master in Business advertising and management, that would be good for remote work but he still working for Disney at only $13 per hour. And his rent is $1700 per month. My brother in law have a computer science degree and can't even find a good paying job in Florida until he move to Georgia. Don't forget to mention the tolls. I used to pay $300 per month in tolls back in 2003 not sure how much it is now but I am sure that the tolls are increasing every year. That's what my nephew told me. Even though there's no state tax but the tolls cost more than the state tax I am paying now in the state I am living in now. Where I live now I can easily find jobs that pay between $18 to $26 per hour but not in Florida. If a person with a Master degree cannot get $18 per hour in Florida that will not sustain the living situation in Florida for long.
Excellent info, thx. Interested in one on real estate in Georgia OUTSIDE of Atlanta…such as north and South Georgia.
Great video 😊 any link to your map you have with the zip codes and where to avoid ?
Thanks for the comment Alexys! I provide access to maps and data in 1-on-1 coaching with clients!
What software are you using to get all these data?
I'm in knee of the magenta zip codes that you highlighted in St Petersburg. The areas closest to downtown have really becoming younger, but the remainder is quite old.
This is such great information. I want to buy an investment property, and this gives me some additional food for thought.
I sold my Clearwater home in Oct 2021 & feel like I made out like a bandit.
I don't think prices will correct for minimum another 3-4 years.
Great Video! Thanks a lot...
My daughter is trying to buy a house in the UCF area of Orlando. Any tips l can give her?
South Tampa and North Tampa is very different. You keep saying Tampa
He did this for a reason to have more data to analyze. It is very relevant to see this as a home buyer/home owner
If you want to invest in that area, I would OVERLAY the FLOOD ZONE maps on top of any other info. It is a "hidden cost". I purposely bought in Pinellas county along the mid-county ridge. 51' above sea level, no evac, non flood zone, 1.5 miles from the beach.
Excellent video. I lived through the crash in 2007 but in fact sold my home and made money before the market hit rock bottom. I lived in Westchase which is a large planned community northwest of the Airport. Will you be doing an analysis on the Sarasota area as well?
They want 350k for a town home 🏡 😆
Selling like hotcakes down here
350 would be a steal. Most towntomes are at least 450 to 500 depending on zip. Then they have a 3-400 hoa fees (plus taxes and ins)
This is the best real estate channel on TH-cam! Nice work!
Thanks!
Great video and information. Appreciate the work you put into it.
Thank you!
Pinellas county is a flippers paradise. There are many homes build in the 1920s-1960s. This means you can get a house that has not been renovated in decades. Bring the house up to date and resell. With the average age being 50 and a beach lazy feel most people want move in ready homes. Making flipping very lucrative. I am a stone and tile contractor in the Bay area. Non stop business for the last decade and I have not advertised once.