If they ever introduce the 4 pointer, they should incorporate it during the new mid season tourney for a while. Would actually make the tourney pretty unique
One point he didn't mention is the stats he are using is where teams are not strategizing for a 4 point shot. Meaning that while Trae, Lillard and Curry take a lot of them no coach in the huddle talks about defending it or planning to shoot it on this possession. So the implementation means a lot more than just changing the scores of previous games in a hypothetical.
Once 4 pt shot is real, players like Lillard and curry would actually attempt it. Teams would also adjust to defend it. I'm pretty sure any 3 pt hero will also be the best 4pt shooters too
I noticed this in a lot of the footage; a lot of defense were holding the 3-point line, meaning someone at the theoretical 4-point line was virtually uncontested making his shot.
Imagine them having to guard a 4 point shot, the shooter catches & pump fakes a 4 and steps into a 3 pointer🤯🤯🤯 craziness. The game wouldnt be the same
It would be interesting to see how this would actually play out. Trae's efficiency looks fantastic from theoretical 4-pointers, but most of those 30 footers are wide open right now. It wouldn't take defenses long to realize they need to contest those shots more if they're worth 4 points. That being said, shooters would start to practice 30 footers more if they're worth 4 points, and I'd expect we'd start to see accuracy improve.
I feel the only major difference it would make is end of game situations where a team down 4 has possession and little time left on the clock to get a quick shot and foul and then another try
@@davidknowles605not necessarily. The addition of a 4 point line would have more or less the same effect of the 3 point line. A vast increase in spacing and a jump in total scoring and offense once teams learn to adjust
@@x1fearless-699exactly his point I think..too much scoring isn't always fun if there is no defense that's the thing..with more spacing defenses would be weakened
I really give you props Jimmy. It’s been years and you’re dedicated to the sport and your fans. Thank you for taking your time for each and every video.
In particular, Jimmy’s video’s just about always have great presentation to them. As for a four point shot, it’d be interesting if it was a legit thing in the NBA, but I don’t think it’d occur to them.
@@tenochmorales9009 The 3 pointers or theoretical 4s? Because either way they're both better because they're worth more points and the meta has changed so players are taking them more often (so they're getting better at them), it's pretty self explanatory.
It was never like that until the mid 2010s. Basketball scores up until the were more like 90-100 ppg maybe. Now teams score at least 120 ppg on average. Steph Curry changed the NBA
@TheBulletBlitz more than just the NBA, he’s changed basketball. If we can honestly credit him with the shift. There’s a guy on Oakland in March Madness who’s shot hundreds of field goals this season, and I’m pretty sure less than 10 of them were 2 pointers
If the four point line was there, people would cover someone like Trey a lot more intensely at the at distance. Conversely players would start putting a lot more effort into those shots, so it's hard to get an real estimate on the PPS of a four point shot. However it would still probably cause an offensive explosion because it would generate so much space if defences had to guard so aggressively at 30ft.
Not really. Players know Trae likes to shoot deep, yet they sag off anyway because they believe the percentage is worth it. That percentage wouldnt change with a physical line there. His 30 ft shots are still worth 3. Players sag off of the 3 point line against shooters sometimes too. Players dont always have the attention/discipline/energy to defend a player in his chest at any distance, while still being helpful to the team.
@@themasterseye Trey rarely takes those shots when he's not open. It may be worth it to sag off him now, but not if there was an extra point involved. And defence almost never intentionally leave someone who can actually shoot open. That's like the core of modern defence.
this was my exact concern too. imagine having to guard someone that far out. one crossover or blow by and all of a sudden a guy like trae young is a the 3 point line open making it a 5v4. thats the only thing that concerns me about this line tbh
@@narheanrg1949 Yup. Defenders are already having a hard time defending the paint up to the 3pt line, a 4pt line would only make it exponentially harder.
True given the fact that the defense would expand to cover the 4-point line, but knowing Trae I see him leveling up his shot to take it even deeper behind the 4-point line and continue draining long bombs like nothing 🥶
About 4ps shots, it's pretty much like the 3ps shots. No one cared to shoot them before the line was set, as they had nothing to gain. Also the players were not that accurate in the beginning. Fast forward a few years and you have a lot of great 3-ps shooters, even centers like Hakeem, Dirk, etc. 4-points stats from a era without the point bonus doesn't really matter. It's like counting how many people are holding an umbrella on a sunny day. Yes, the face of the game will change and yes it will take us time to adapt to the new game reality, but in the end it will happen and we will like it as well as three-point shots because they will be impressive, they will allow teams to claim victories in the end with more chances (more "8 point games" for us, even 9), new points leaders will come up, player and team point records will follow and more to come, all for the better. I' m in !
Great explanation of the concept with analytics. Uncontested layups of the bigs would be even more uncontested since spacing would be increased once the defenders adjust to defending 4 pointers. Therefore, I beleive point per shot from uncontested layups would also increase. Other than that, mad respect to Trae.
My main concern with this data is that most of the shots beyond 29 ft are at the end of the shot clock/quarter. So, they're taken out of necessity rather than planned shots. I think making the distance 30+ ft might work, but maybe even further because we don't know how it would play out once teams create plays dedicated to a 4 pointer.
I'd be interested to see the data with shots beyond half-court filtered out. Poole's percentage alone would've been 36% on 64 attempts in that case which is pretty insane.
@@AirsoftNinja1331 sure, but they hold more weight on the calculation of "4pt%" because the relative sample size is so much smaller. Most players attempt so many 3s that heaves account for a negligible portion. But in Luka's case, for example, they account for over 1/4 of his 4pt attempts. I'm not proposing an official way to track the percentages, I just noticed you could remove some of the noise in the numbers to better reflect how good players actually are at making these shots.
@igbasketballtalk That's part of the game tho. No one heaves for fun and no one takes those shots unless beating a buzzer. I'm not just saying half court and beyond shots, just like anything behind a 3pt line counts then so should anything behind a 4. I'm sure Jxmy thought about that too and would have done that for the video if that had that big of a difference in impact. The video is about the volume and accuracy that a player takes those shots. Luka nor Poole is throwing up volume like Trae. Percentage out of 10 shots can look good but doesn't compare to a percentage out of 100 because of volume.
Hey buddy, I just want to say: Great job. Your videos are really well organized, you voice is clearly articulated, and the videos that I've watched have explored interesting ideas in a logical way. It would have been really easy for a conversation on a 4-point shot to turn into an absurd and polarizing position, but your thorough research and tempered/objective view makes for a really interesting conversation. Keep up the GREAT fucking work you are doing, and thank you for putting the time into this (which I can imagine was extensive) to promote and foster interesting discourses on a sport I love. Kudos!
Trae’s 4 point shot is huge for his game. Because of his size he has to rely on quickness and playmaking so by making those 4 point shots he gives himself a bigger court to work with. Highly underrated imo
@TheAdvaitist Man the hate just doesn't stop...was Ai efficient? Nah, doesn't mean that he isn't a great player...he wasn't even an all star there's no way he's overrated at this point.
I think this might be my favorite Jimmy video ever. Wasn’t too big of a fan of Trae but he’s truly generational. If the NBA ever does implement a 4 point line in the future, we’d look at Trae as someone who was truly before his time and stunted because of it
I think one of the more shocking stats was Jokic casually having a hugely more valuable shot from floater land than anything within 3-pt range. Just goes to show how ridiculous his touch is. At the same time, Trae certainly is an overhated player; although his shot selection can be extremely annoying at times (especially for hawks fans) , he truly is a sniper from long range.
@@JolteOnWisconsin I agree, probably the worst defender in the league and the lack of effort on the defensive end is just pathetic. He is also a ball-dominant guard which really hurts the team and how to build around him. If he could add off-ball movement to his game, it would make his offensive package as well as team dynamic so much better.
@@JolteOnWisconsinbro trey literally brought the hawks into the playoffs and made a deep playoff run while being the hawks star player and the hawks had a big playoff drought before trey arrived he helps a lot too win steph curry is a liability on defense but that doesn’t mean he’s not a winner
@ruiyikeith While is correct. I don’t think you understand Jimmy’s graph at all. If you did, you’d understand how Jokic is MILES above literally every player in NBA history when that close to the basket. Not even Shaq is as efficient as Jokic in the paint.
I think a good place to test this and other new rule changes would be the in-season tournament. I think it would make the games more interesting and probably attract more viewership.
This is a fascinating and thorough look at the 4pt line, excellent work! Coming from someone who isn't into basketball, your videos are awesome. I think the only thing I would want to see explored more is the additional incentive players would have in taking that 4 pt shot. Right now, there doesn't seem to be much of an incentive for players to take that extra risk but I think if players knew there is an extra point at stake, the data would definitely skew differently. Additionally, I'd like to know what would happen if the NBA moved the 3-pt line back, it seems like as time goes on 3 pointers have become easier to hit, or at least attempted more. In any case awesome vid!
Im not even an NBA fan, dont watch a single game all year but I do love every video you do. I cant imagine the amount of time you spend putting together all this data, graphs, ect, just know its extremely interesting (even to non NBA fans), well presented and entertaining to watch every time. Keep it up
@@angelc4 i missed someone asking you for your comment, but honestly, how sad can your life be, how empty and pathetic are you that you took the time to comment that, you need to sort your life out mate
@angelc4 it's a complement to Jimmy bro.. someone who doesn't like basketball and still enjoys "basketball" content from a TH-camr is a huge complement. Relax your tits
I suspect that it would make the game defense space be enlarged so much that according to the "Moneyball" theory, people should shoot at the 4-point line or attack the rim directly. The math behind it may not calculate the impact on the degree of awesomeness. But it may be worth a try to implement that in some lower leagues. Amazing video.
Fantastic video as always. Jxmy's ability to craft and narrate a story is unmatched. One thing I'd like to note, is how a 4point line would change the end of games. If teams were down by 8 points with 30 seconds left, would teams start taking the chance at 4pointers more often? Would that spread the floor even more and allow for more fake 4 point plays that lead to easy 2's and 3's? I think it would drastically change the end game scenarios, but only slightly change the main portion of the game. Probably just spread the floor a bit more.
The 30 ft shots have similar shooting percentages because they are generally more open because no one is up there defending. But if you made that shot worth 4, the defenses would then try harder and those percentages would drop, they probably wouldn't get as many shot and more threes would be taken instead of 4s
Other side of the argument is that players and teams would also practice these shots and find a place for the shots in their offenses. That and the difficulty defending so much ground (made harder when great shooters like Steph and Trae are also fast and capable of penetrating the paint), from the paint all the way to 30 feet out, might be enough to counter the more aggressive defense.
@@Jacob_He I agree the game would be higher scoring but not because of more 4s scored. But because of all the open space defending that high up would create
@@Jacob_HeThis is the main reason the teams he mentioned have a "4 point line" on practice courts. It isn't what most them are. It's used primarily as a marker for practicing spacing against long range offense. They obviously aren't calling it a 4 pointer in practice. That wouldn't make any sense and I'm surprised he didn't clarify this. If the shot was actually worth 4 these defensive strategies would be more of a priority but they already are working it into their gameplay.
while true it would also open up the paint even more if players moved up to defend the 4 point line and it will drastically increase scoring which can be a bad or good thing depending on how you look at it
Hot take: if they add a four point line then they should change the 3 Second rule/really make the center more of a goalie position. Hear me out: The floor will be so spaced out due to players seeking high value shots that the midrange will die off entirely. Basically the 2 ball goes to whoever can blow by their defender for a lay.
@@Criativo77nah that causes too many injuries, fucked up Jordan's fingers so much that he couldn't handle the ball the same at all later in his career
I don't care for sports, at all. But the numbers and listening to passionate rants hooked me into this vid still. Insane vid and editing, great work :)
I don’t really think you could just go back and see how it would be different if their shots were 4 points because if the 4 point line was actually there already, their decision would be different due to actually having the option to shoot a 4 pointer in front of them
Also as Jimmy said at the start, not all team practice the 4 pointer so if the 4 pointer actually existed it would mbe hard to say due to other people actually practicing the shot
Interesting data for sure. As you said it's unknown what the entire impact would be on the game. It would certainly be interesting to see how many more attempts there would be from out there if there were a line and a potential reward for chucking up shots from there. Also, I'd be interested in the shot percentage if there actually were a line there (giving the players a reference point) rather than just empty court space. Having the line there I would think would increase the success rate just by giving the player a muscle memory advantage by knowing exactly how far away the rim is.
I paused @6:50 when you asked "who would be the best 4 pointers in the league? Well, the answer may not be what you think." and thought to myself, Trae, Damian, & Steph. Seemed kinda obvious at first, but once you broke down the stats further you blew my mind! Great Vid!
Great video Jimmy, just a few things to consider though. It looks like you’ve included heaves from way beyond 30 ft in these percentages, so it’s likely players would have a better 4 point percentage than what currently exists (3 point percentage would also jump when a 4 point shot gets added because those heaves no longer count as 3’s + defense scheme changes would probably make 3’s easier to take away 4’s). The 3 point % probably wouldn’t change much, but that 17% from 4 should quickly spike up. It’s a fun idea to speculate, but the second a 4 pointer was actually implemented, the game would change drastically. The rate that they would be taken would increase dramatically for all players who have a bit of range, defensive schemes would change, and all other shots should become more efficient as the threat of a 4 pointer is going to space the floor even more than 3’s currently do.
@@adamkratz5291 How is being a 43% overall field goal shooter and 33% 3-point shooter efficient?! lol. C'mon man, stop riding his D so hard. He's a good player no doubt, but don't tell me he's very efficient! Numbers don't lie. Oh, and those numbers get worse in the playoffs! Should have taken Luka!
@@adamkratz5291 How the heck is he efficient when is fg % is 43% and his 3 pt % is 33% 😆 C'mon man, I like Trae overall and I think he can certainly improve a bit but he's not an efficient shooter. Is he a good playmaker as a point guard, sure. That's a different point. We're talking about his shooting.
@@bigdogstatus83he had a down year last year but his team’s offense still had the 7th highest offensive rating and 2nd most points per game last season, without him those numbers go way down. Bro has 1 down year and mfs act like he isn’t a top 5 point guard
This is an amazing video with tons of effort put in. It’s impossible to know the true impact a 4 point line would have on the future games cause players would start practicing it more and more to become even more efficient.
The full graph at 12:34 is really interesting because it shows that (apart from some outliers) the kind of people who frequently attempt shots from 30+ feet out are the people who *_know_* they can make that shot.
Very interesting. I'd push back on the idea that adding a 4 point line wouldn't change much. Although I get how you came to that conclusion , the issue with going back and retroactively changing shots beyond 30' to 4 points is that it doesn't take into account that the strategy in those games would be different. The data doesn't show how many shots from beyond 30 were last second heaves v shots forced under pressure v shots that are deliberately taken, etc. The only way to really know would be to play out games and see if like the average margin of victory significantly changes or something like that. Overall a great video though
@@bigdogstatus83 he leads the league in assists every year, volume scorer that is efficient for the hawks offensive sets, good off ball shooter, lob threat, and on defense he clogs lanes and steals the ball, on or off.. he’s a phenomenal player
@@jnthnmrry Okay, I'd take many many players over him. He doesn't clog anything. Giving up Luka for him was so idiotic by the Hawks. Almost every Hawks fan admits that.
This just further clarifies why I like watching Trae play. Number one is he doesn't shy away from pressure, stepping up his performance whenever he gets a sniff of the playoffs. No fear. My favorite trait. But then this video is exposing the other reason: he's like watching the circus or something! Just insane shots, out there shorter than anybody else just snatching souls. It's really fun to watch. Hope he creates a winner in Atlanta or wherever, I need to him every year in the playoffs like I used to need to see Reggie Miller.
The biggest problem with it is if there is a 4 point line it will revolutionize the NBA the same way that the 3 point line did but to an even higher degree. For example when the 3 point line was made everyone thought it was a bad shot until the game kept progressing eventually until now where people are complaining because how it has been exploited. Banger upload!!!
I totally agree. Defending three pointers and consequently the paint with todays spacing is already a killer. A 4 point shot with Trae Young like efficiency would kill every defense.
Right but even 30 years from now virtually no one would be any good at that shot. So let's say player X lives on the 4 line and you let him just jack of 30 4 point attempts per game. He would make one or two of those. I am not defending a guy that MIGHT score 8 total points from that distance. No matter how many players in the world practice this shot, it does not mean they would ever become elite at it
@@Wodz30 Wait... did that Video not establish that Trey with a 4 point line would be bonkers? We are talking 30% from 4 point range. I think you underestimate what is possible. At the moment its just not worth to shoot from 30ft, but with a 4 point line you 'd see the average effectiveness go up quicker than you'd like. I mean people are/were complaining about the 3 point line. Life finds a way or in this case: players and coaches.
Would spread the floor even more. Even more wide open dunks. Would be nothing but 3s,4s, layups and dunks back n forth with not much else, including defense. We’d be bored with it after a season, or sooner
I’ve seen your videos with great interest. You are not only entertaining, but very educational for all basketball fans. Your obsesion for data is, and I can’t find a better word now, absolutely charming. Also, your voice technique is spectacular. I really enjoy your work. Greetings from Chile.
Amazing video. Trae has always been generational. He is a little ahead of the rest of the league. That said, if they added the 4 point line. That list would increase drastically. Lifetime Hawks fan. Most hate the way Trae shoots from so deep. Proof is in the video.
I think an interesting idea is: instead of a 4 point line at 30 feet, moving the 3 point line back a few feet. Would it balance the efficiency between elite bigs and elite sharpshooters? IMO, your very last chart makes clear that Jokic is actually even more dominant than meets the eye. He's shooting at an unmatched efficiency from close to the basket while also providing a ton of value through other means (assists and rebounds). What this tells me is that Jokic's dominance is being slightly stifled by the inherently higher value of 3-point shots. If we equalized efficiency across all ranges, he would be head and shoulders above the rest of the league, it wouldn't even be close.
God I love this channel lol, this is such good content. I think a 4pt line would be fun for the NBA, but would be terrible for rec leagues all across the country as random Joes try their luck instead of making a smarter play lol
Love this vid man, looks like you put a LOT of work into it ... that said, I think a 4 point line would be the final blow to any sort of enjoyable basketball.
Overall I like the analysis and the effort put into this video...I think one thing that should be mentioned is that the reason why Trae has more 4 pointers per season is because he joined the NBA after steph (and Dame) normalized high volume/long range threes. Also, Steph and Dame might be taking fewer 4s because they know in real life, it's only worth 3 points so they're better off taking a step closer since they'd have a higher chance of making it with the same points.
another part is that steph and dame have a better ability to work their way into the paint when they have a defender that far out compared to trae mainly due to his lack of size and strength, but also his handles aren't quite as polished just yet. not that trae can't do it as he has a really good floater and overall passing ability, but I think his shot selection should improve the more he plays
@@RaitonBrilI’d argue that Trae is faster than Steph and Dame and has just as good of handles. He can very easily get into the paint, but his size is the biggest factor in not doing it as much. But you’re right about his shot selection, that’ll get better as he gets older
I just LOVE these videos, Jimmy! Mad respect for all the work you put into them, crunching numbers, evaluation the circumstances, and delivers the lines... Kudos to you, man, and keep it UP!
I love the fact that you have the data and can use it to make such interesting content. I'm an engineer that also loves to play bball and this hits two of my favorite topics...
Awesome video. Wouldn’t defenses change to defend differently against a 4 point shot if it existed? Wouldn’t players be more likely to take shots from farther if they were incentivized? Would be interesting.
Good analysis. From a fan perspective, I'd rather return to the old rules about dribbling (no carries or steering the ball) and offense fouls. (Offensive player who initiates contact is called for the foul.) This would increase the tightness of the overall defense and diminish the overall offense, making it less offensively dominant.
In my opinion, if they were to do something like this, they should just make half court shots worth 4 points. Adding a 4 point line would make the 3 point line kinda redundant, and would make Steph Curry Way too overpowered. Making half court shots worth 4 points would be more fair, it would make the hardest shot in basketball worth considering as a potential buzzer beater and wouldn’t make point guards too powerful.
hey Jimmy, I would like to know how many points the opposition scores after each missed theoretical 4 points shot as a direct result of the miss. It would be interesting to know how many offensive rebounds are collected and how many misses lead to a direct attack and points against. The thing is that teams would not be so ready to transition into defense as the shot would pretty much surprise everyone on the field. Thanks...
Great video, but I would like to point out one VERY important factor to be considered. How were the 4 pointers taken? Were they chucks? Were they predetermined, set shots? Dame and Trae take predetermined shots from that far out. Many of Steph's 4 pointers are chucks. This changes how hard or easy these points came.
Yeah, seems like at the end of every quarter Curry is chucking up a shot from near half court--because he can make it over a quarter of the time. But because the shot is rushed and not planned, it's not usually a quality look. If he were to take planned 4 point shots from 30 out like Trae and Lillard often do, his shooting percentage on those shots would likely go up.
Exactly what I was thinking looking at the 4pt shot chart a majority of the attempts were absolutely end of quarter heaves. That takes down the 4pt % big time
The 4 point line would be great imo. In terms of the way the games changed since I started watching it as a kid, I miss the old days of 2 bigs on the block, 1 in the drop ready to dunk but also, it annoyed me that a player like Shaq never shot 3’s like KAT can. Imagine what he would’ve averaged in his prime… but the 4 point line would actually bring a little of that back. I don’t think we would see bigs like Jokic or Embiid pulling from the 4 point line, just guards like Steph, Dame, & Trae Young. It would bring back the low screens but further out from the basket which would be insane to watch teams adapt & make plays for. And it would still allow a center like Gobert to have an impact without shooting because of further spacing. An absolute yes from me.
It would rend 5 completely irrelevant. It’s the spacing that killed them, add more and you’d only have players like draymond or kd as your 5 cause you’d need so much quickness from them to even attempt contesting layups. And high screens are already a thing
hahahaah it's the fact that there are a lot of big that can shoot the 3's that causes the useless gobert to be a thing, with the 4 point gobert (and players like him obviusly) can only going to play somewhere in europe or china, absolutely a no no it's the 4's, instead the only thing the NBA needs to do it's simple let the players playing defense.
@@mediokah232 honestly I’m kinda lost, why would you want even more offense and spaces ? In the playoffs we see games with great defensive schemes but if you add such a blatant positive option for offense, ain’t no way the nba doesn’t become a half court shoot contest. And don’t get me wrong, it is cool from times to times (the bubble games with Murray Mitchell were crazy af) but I also love grindy games.
One problem with 4 pointers is that it is basically worth 2 normal possessions. It makes it to where an 8 point lead with 30 seconds left isn't really safe anymore since all it takes is 1 4 pointer and a cross court shot to be right back into it.
To be honest the 4-point shot would change defense far more than offence. Defending someone at the 4-point line and also making sure not to leave someone open near the basket is so much more different then doing it in a game, where a 4-point shot is just style points. it would transform the game a whole lot, teams would 'have' to make sure that some player don't throw 4-pointers, while pushing other towards the line.
Interesting concept. Don’t think it’s best to implement the 4pt line unless it’s a half court heave since normal distance just isn’t long range anymore for most guys and a 4pt shot is a bit overkill if you ask me.
I agree, there shouldn’t be a 4 point “line” but shots beyond half court should be worth 4 points. I think this would make late game situations more fun but would make it so the 4 point line doesn’t get overused.
Garland having the same theoretical 4 point percentage as his 3 point percentage is actually insane
I think he’ll do good in the playoffs in the future just needed to get some experience before he could
even more impressive is keeping up his acc. w his volume
Who’s garland?
@@vannq7785darius garland, plays for the cleveland cavaliers, all star point guard, look em up if you want too
@@vannq7785the fuck ? do you even watch basketball?
If they ever introduce the 4 pointer, they should incorporate it during the new mid season tourney for a while. Would actually make the tourney pretty unique
They should do that
like a test run or just solely in the new tourney?
I like that. Beta tests.
I really hope this rule is never implemented in any way
I think they should just implement it into the all-star game like the wnba
One point he didn't mention is the stats he are using is where teams are not strategizing for a 4 point shot. Meaning that while Trae, Lillard and Curry take a lot of them no coach in the huddle talks about defending it or planning to shoot it on this possession. So the implementation means a lot more than just changing the scores of previous games in a hypothetical.
Once 4 pt shot is real, players like Lillard and curry would actually attempt it. Teams would also adjust to defend it. I'm pretty sure any 3 pt hero will also be the best 4pt shooters too
and most of the 27-29ft shots would've been stepped back just like how rarely players attempt right before the 3-pt line
I noticed this in a lot of the footage; a lot of defense were holding the 3-point line, meaning someone at the theoretical 4-point line was virtually uncontested making his shot.
My same point.
Imagine them having to guard a 4 point shot, the shooter catches & pump fakes a 4 and steps into a 3 pointer🤯🤯🤯 craziness. The game wouldnt be the same
It would be interesting to see how this would actually play out. Trae's efficiency looks fantastic from theoretical 4-pointers, but most of those 30 footers are wide open right now. It wouldn't take defenses long to realize they need to contest those shots more if they're worth 4 points. That being said, shooters would start to practice 30 footers more if they're worth 4 points, and I'd expect we'd start to see accuracy improve.
I feel the only major difference it would make is end of game situations where a team down 4 has possession and little time left on the clock to get a quick shot and foul and then another try
Similar to Jerry West
The change on the games fabric will worsen even more with a 4pt line.
It will be shot jacking like no other era. The NBA will be very boring
@@davidknowles605not necessarily. The addition of a 4 point line would have more or less the same effect of the 3 point line. A vast increase in spacing and a jump in total scoring and offense once teams learn to adjust
@@x1fearless-699exactly his point I think..too much scoring isn't always fun if there is no defense that's the thing..with more spacing defenses would be weakened
I really give you props Jimmy. It’s been years and you’re dedicated to the sport and your fans. Thank you for taking your time for each and every video.
In particular, Jimmy’s video’s just about always have great presentation to them.
As for a four point shot, it’d be interesting if it was a legit thing in the NBA, but I don’t think it’d occur to them.
As someone who never watch the NBA, This video delivery is insanely incredible for me. Very understandable and interesting to me so much.
Ikr. I am a PhD in math and I was amazed by the statistics of it, I felt like I want to do a deeper analysis of why the long shot are better
@@tenochmorales9009 The 3 pointers or theoretical 4s? Because either way they're both better because they're worth more points and the meta has changed so players are taking them more often (so they're getting better at them), it's pretty self explanatory.
It was never like that until the mid 2010s. Basketball scores up until the were more like 90-100 ppg maybe. Now teams score at least 120 ppg on average. Steph Curry changed the NBA
@TheBulletBlitz more than just the NBA, he’s changed basketball. If we can honestly credit him with the shift.
There’s a guy on Oakland in March Madness who’s shot hundreds of field goals this season, and I’m pretty sure less than 10 of them were 2 pointers
@@James-xm3ex I been tellin everyone, no one wanna be like Mike anymore
If the four point line was there, people would cover someone like Trey a lot more intensely at the at distance. Conversely players would start putting a lot more effort into those shots, so it's hard to get an real estimate on the PPS of a four point shot. However it would still probably cause an offensive explosion because it would generate so much space if defences had to guard so aggressively at 30ft.
Not really. Players know Trae likes to shoot deep, yet they sag off anyway because they believe the percentage is worth it. That percentage wouldnt change with a physical line there. His 30 ft shots are still worth 3. Players sag off of the 3 point line against shooters sometimes too. Players dont always have the attention/discipline/energy to defend a player in his chest at any distance, while still being helpful to the team.
@@themasterseye Trey rarely takes those shots when he's not open. It may be worth it to sag off him now, but not if there was an extra point involved. And defence almost never intentionally leave someone who can actually shoot open. That's like the core of modern defence.
this was my exact concern too. imagine having to guard someone that far out. one crossover or blow by and all of a sudden a guy like trae young is a the 3 point line open making it a 5v4. thats the only thing that concerns me about this line tbh
@@narheanrg1949 Yup. Defenders are already having a hard time defending the paint up to the 3pt line, a 4pt line would only make it exponentially harder.
True given the fact that the defense would expand to cover the 4-point line, but knowing Trae I see him leveling up his shot to take it even deeper behind the 4-point line and continue draining long bombs like nothing 🥶
respect to Jimmy for keeping us entertained during the off season
About 4ps shots, it's pretty much like the 3ps shots. No one cared to shoot them before the line was set, as they had nothing to gain. Also the players were not that accurate in the beginning. Fast forward a few years and you have a lot of great 3-ps shooters, even centers like Hakeem, Dirk, etc. 4-points stats from a era without the point bonus doesn't really matter. It's like counting how many people are holding an umbrella on a sunny day. Yes, the face of the game will change and yes it will take us time to adapt to the new game reality, but in the end it will happen and we will like it as well as three-point shots because they will be impressive, they will allow teams to claim victories in the end with more chances (more "8 point games" for us, even 9), new points leaders will come up, player and team point records will follow and more to come, all for the better. I' m in !
🤓
Nice comment 😂
Read your bible! (KJV, preferably) ❤️😊🎉
Great explanation of the concept with analytics. Uncontested layups of the bigs would be even more uncontested since spacing would be increased once the defenders adjust to defending 4 pointers. Therefore, I beleive point per shot from uncontested layups would also increase. Other than that, mad respect to Trae.
nah. I don't think people are going to double u at the 4 pt line
Jokic being that good in the paint that he’s giving you as much pps as three point takers just makes me appreciate him even more
His post up is one of the most efficient shots ever
Your average dunk/lay up is just as efficient lmao. Whats impressive is that his post up is on eof the more efficient plays in ball
You sound sus af, jealous of his wife?
how many pps does he give you
I don't get your point here because that's just as if not more efficient than the 3. you're just dickriding
My main concern with this data is that most of the shots beyond 29 ft are at the end of the shot clock/quarter. So, they're taken out of necessity rather than planned shots. I think making the distance 30+ ft might work, but maybe even further because we don't know how it would play out once teams create plays dedicated to a 4 pointer.
Trae does it for fun
I'd be interested to see the data with shots beyond half-court filtered out. Poole's percentage alone would've been 36% on 64 attempts in that case which is pretty insane.
@@igbasketballtalkPercentages on 3's are factored in at those ranges, but 4's can't be?
@@AirsoftNinja1331 sure, but they hold more weight on the calculation of "4pt%" because the relative sample size is so much smaller. Most players attempt so many 3s that heaves account for a negligible portion. But in Luka's case, for example, they account for over 1/4 of his 4pt attempts.
I'm not proposing an official way to track the percentages, I just noticed you could remove some of the noise in the numbers to better reflect how good players actually are at making these shots.
@igbasketballtalk That's part of the game tho. No one heaves for fun and no one takes those shots unless beating a buzzer. I'm not just saying half court and beyond shots, just like anything behind a 3pt line counts then so should anything behind a 4. I'm sure Jxmy thought about that too and would have done that for the video if that had that big of a difference in impact.
The video is about the volume and accuracy that a player takes those shots. Luka nor Poole is throwing up volume like Trae. Percentage out of 10 shots can look good but doesn't compare to a percentage out of 100 because of volume.
Hey buddy, I just want to say: Great job. Your videos are really well organized, you voice is clearly articulated, and the videos that I've watched have explored interesting ideas in a logical way.
It would have been really easy for a conversation on a 4-point shot to turn into an absurd and polarizing position, but your thorough research and tempered/objective view makes for a really interesting conversation.
Keep up the GREAT fucking work you are doing, and thank you for putting the time into this (which I can imagine was extensive) to promote and foster interesting discourses on a sport I love.
Kudos!
As someone who doesn’t really watch too much basketball, it’s weird how I never miss your videos!
Ahh thank God I'm not the only one.. I honestly haven't watched a game since Lebron on the cavs. But damn this man videos are the highest of quality
Doing tricks on it
@@KingstonDopecan't motivate the man????
@@KingstonDopeanime pfp, comment irrelevant❌
the jon bois effect
Trae’s 4 point shot is huge for his game. Because of his size he has to rely on quickness and playmaking so by making those 4 point shots he gives himself a bigger court to work with. Highly underrated imo
If it existed yeah it would be, right now without it though its just emphasizes his bad shot selection.
Trae is massively overrated actually. He’s seriously inefficient
@TheAdvaitist Man the hate just doesn't stop...was Ai efficient? Nah, doesn't mean that he isn't a great player...he wasn't even an all star there's no way he's overrated at this point.
0.99 points per shot is not too shabby for a “bad shot”
Trae is overrated, good player tho
8:50 but this is flawed… there’s no reason to risk 30 ft shots when 4 pointers don’t exist
I think this might be my favorite Jimmy video ever. Wasn’t too big of a fan of Trae but he’s truly generational. If the NBA ever does implement a 4 point line in the future, we’d look at Trae as someone who was truly before his time and stunted because of it
💯 true
ICE TRAE DA GANGGGGG
Essentially would be the modern day pistol pete
Like Steve nash
Yessir
I think one of the more shocking stats was Jokic casually having a hugely more valuable shot from floater land than anything within 3-pt range. Just goes to show how ridiculous his touch is. At the same time, Trae certainly is an overhated player; although his shot selection can be extremely annoying at times (especially for hawks fans) , he truly is a sniper from long range.
He’s a sniper for sure, but not a winner and he’s a hugely negative defender
@@JolteOnWisconsinI mean dude just won a championship averaging a 30 pt triple double while shooting 50,40,80
@@Michael2Mikaelhes talking about trae young not jokic i think
@@JolteOnWisconsin I agree, probably the worst defender in the league and the lack of effort on the defensive end is just pathetic. He is also a ball-dominant guard which really hurts the team and how to build around him. If he could add off-ball movement to his game, it would make his offensive package as well as team dynamic so much better.
@@JolteOnWisconsinbro trey literally brought the hawks into the playoffs and made a deep playoff run while being the hawks star player and the hawks had a big playoff drought before trey arrived he helps a lot too win steph curry is a liability on defense but that doesn’t mean he’s not a winner
7:09 DeAngelo Russell is such a beast of a player that he's tying theoretical records in the future!
Can we appreciate Jokic for having such an incredible PPS while mostly shooting from the paint
Jordan vibes
Not "while", "because".
@@ruiyikeithYeah lol
@@ruiyikeithnot “because”, “whilst”
@ruiyikeith
While is correct.
I don’t think you understand Jimmy’s graph at all. If you did, you’d understand how Jokic is MILES above literally every player in NBA history when that close to the basket.
Not even Shaq is as efficient as Jokic in the paint.
I think a good place to test this and other new rule changes would be the in-season tournament. I think it would make the games more interesting and probably attract more viewership.
Sir you're onto something. Only problem is that these games count towards your regular season record.
imo it. makes the basketball into a circus
how?@@oliverqueen18
@@oliverqueen18what language are you speaking?
@@Itchyboy_use context clues mf
This is a fascinating and thorough look at the 4pt line, excellent work! Coming from someone who isn't into basketball, your videos are awesome. I think the only thing I would want to see explored more is the additional incentive players would have in taking that 4 pt shot. Right now, there doesn't seem to be much of an incentive for players to take that extra risk but I think if players knew there is an extra point at stake, the data would definitely skew differently. Additionally, I'd like to know what would happen if the NBA moved the 3-pt line back, it seems like as time goes on 3 pointers have become easier to hit, or at least attempted more. In any case awesome vid!
It’s always a good day when jimmy uploads💪
My toddler came out as trans.
@@TransKidsMafiatransparent???
I was about to say the same thing
You watched the whole thing already?
Fr
Im not even an NBA fan, dont watch a single game all year but I do love every video you do. I cant imagine the amount of time you spend putting together all this data, graphs, ect, just know its extremely interesting (even to non NBA fans), well presented and entertaining to watch every time. Keep it up
No one asked lil bro
@@angelc4 i missed someone asking you for your comment, but honestly, how sad can your life be, how empty and pathetic are you that you took the time to comment that, you need to sort your life out mate
@@angelc4🤦♂️
@angelc4 it's a complement to Jimmy bro.. someone who doesn't like basketball and still enjoys "basketball" content from a TH-camr is a huge complement. Relax your tits
@@angelc4if I ever find you in these comments again I’m gonna spread your cheeks lil bro
I suspect that it would make the game defense space be enlarged so much that according to the "Moneyball" theory, people should shoot at the 4-point line or attack the rim directly. The math behind it may not calculate the impact on the degree of awesomeness. But it may be worth a try to implement that in some lower leagues. Amazing video.
The video hasn't even started yet and I'm already impressed by how good your videos are getting. The grind pays off in the bank and the skills.
Dude these people hire professional editors
This some next level glazing lmao😂
Ridin' D wit no license is still illegal in 47 states my guy
Trae young boutta petition for a 4 point line if he see this 😭😭
15:00
Him: “Steph, Klay and Ray”
Me: That’s Steph, Harden and Ray 😅
Fantastic video as always. Jxmy's ability to craft and narrate a story is unmatched. One thing I'd like to note, is how a 4point line would change the end of games. If teams were down by 8 points with 30 seconds left, would teams start taking the chance at 4pointers more often? Would that spread the floor even more and allow for more fake 4 point plays that lead to easy 2's and 3's? I think it would drastically change the end game scenarios, but only slightly change the main portion of the game. Probably just spread the floor a bit more.
Way I see it, it's more about the crease than the arc. Get rid of the crease, how is the game changed?
The 30 ft shots have similar shooting percentages because they are generally more open because no one is up there defending. But if you made that shot worth 4, the defenses would then try harder and those percentages would drop, they probably wouldn't get as many shot and more threes would be taken instead of 4s
Other side of the argument is that players and teams would also practice these shots and find a place for the shots in their offenses. That and the difficulty defending so much ground (made harder when great shooters like Steph and Trae are also fast and capable of penetrating the paint), from the paint all the way to 30 feet out, might be enough to counter the more aggressive defense.
Defense stretched out that far would be crazy easy work. It would devolve I’m to pick your poison. Uncontested lay or uncontested 4.
@@Jacob_He I agree the game would be higher scoring but not because of more 4s scored. But because of all the open space defending that high up would create
@@Jacob_HeThis is the main reason the teams he mentioned have a "4 point line" on practice courts. It isn't what most them are. It's used primarily as a marker for practicing spacing against long range offense. They obviously aren't calling it a 4 pointer in practice. That wouldn't make any sense and I'm surprised he didn't clarify this.
If the shot was actually worth 4 these defensive strategies would be more of a priority but they already are working it into their gameplay.
while true it would also open up the paint even more if players moved up to defend the 4 point line and it will drastically increase scoring which can be a bad or good thing depending on how you look at it
I know this was about the 4 point line but seeing jokic being by far the most effective big man is insane 😂😂
I don't normally comment on videos, but I never stopped smiling throughout this entire one. Thank you Jxmy, pure gold.
Hot take: if they add a four point line then they should change the 3 Second rule/really make the center more of a goalie position.
Hear me out: The floor will be so spaced out due to players seeking high value shots that the midrange will die off entirely. Basically the 2 ball goes to whoever can blow by their defender for a lay.
Agree. It would make sense to remove the defensive 3 seconds violation if this is the case.
Midrange been dying out
Not only that, I think they also should remove hand checking
@@Criativo77nah that causes too many injuries, fucked up Jordan's fingers so much that he couldn't handle the ball the same at all later in his career
It’s in an nba only rule, doesnt even exist in fiba play
7:20 Jxmy telling the future with that D'Angelo Russel stat line
The goat Jimmy back with another classic, he just don't miss
He's like Trae from the 4-point line - he just don't miss
Did anyone else notice at 7:22 it says 12-28-2023 for D’Angelo Russell, this man jimmy is so good at calculating he calculated the future 😭
Man. I was going crazy trying to find that game 😂😂😂
@@CaioSantos-ly4llit’s not real? Or wrong date
@@RevitalizedExteriorServicesyea
I caught that lol. Damn Jimmy is good!
I don't care for sports, at all. But the numbers and listening to passionate rants hooked me into this vid still. Insane vid and editing, great work :)
Imagine how we sports and stats fans feel about his vids :)
I don’t really think you could just go back and see how it would be different if their shots were 4 points because if the 4 point line was actually there already, their decision would be different due to actually having the option to shoot a 4 pointer in front of them
Also as Jimmy said at the start, not all team practice the 4 pointer so if the 4 pointer actually existed it would mbe hard to say due to other people actually practicing the shot
Exactly what I was thinking throughout the vid
100% agree
CORRECT
Listen a little more, he addressed that at the start. Peanut gallery headass
Interesting data for sure. As you said it's unknown what the entire impact would be on the game. It would certainly be interesting to see how many more attempts there would be from out there if there were a line and a potential reward for chucking up shots from there. Also, I'd be interested in the shot percentage if there actually were a line there (giving the players a reference point) rather than just empty court space. Having the line there I would think would increase the success rate just by giving the player a muscle memory advantage by knowing exactly how far away the rim is.
I paused @6:50 when you asked "who would be the best 4 pointers in the league? Well, the answer may not be what you think." and thought to myself, Trae, Damian, & Steph. Seemed kinda obvious at first, but once you broke down the stats further you blew my mind! Great Vid!
Aye, shout out to Jxmy for coming out with creative content during the off-season. This man is a master at his craft.
Man the stats in this video are on another level, probably one of your top videos ever Jxmy! I appreciate the effort you put in all of them!
shoutout to jxmy he deserves way more love than he’s got for the content quality
Great video Jimmy, just a few things to consider though. It looks like you’ve included heaves from way beyond 30 ft in these percentages, so it’s likely players would have a better 4 point percentage than what currently exists (3 point percentage would also jump when a 4 point shot gets added because those heaves no longer count as 3’s + defense scheme changes would probably make 3’s easier to take away 4’s). The 3 point % probably wouldn’t change much, but that 17% from 4 should quickly spike up.
It’s a fun idea to speculate, but the second a 4 pointer was actually implemented, the game would change drastically. The rate that they would be taken would increase dramatically for all players who have a bit of range, defensive schemes would change, and all other shots should become more efficient as the threat of a 4 pointer is going to space the floor even more than 3’s currently do.
As a hawks fan I now advocate a 4 point line. I knew he was good at those shots but that is nuts how valuable they would be.
he's overrated, a volume shooter and a defensive liability
@@bigdogstatus83 defensive liability sure, but being avolume shooter is a good thing when you're efficient. someone has to score
@@adamkratz5291 How is being a 43% overall field goal shooter and 33% 3-point shooter efficient?! lol. C'mon man, stop riding his D so hard. He's a good player no doubt, but don't tell me he's very efficient! Numbers don't lie. Oh, and those numbers get worse in the playoffs! Should have taken Luka!
@@adamkratz5291 How the heck is he efficient when is fg % is 43% and his 3 pt % is 33% 😆 C'mon man, I like Trae overall and I think he can certainly improve a bit but he's not an efficient shooter. Is he a good playmaker as a point guard, sure. That's a different point. We're talking about his shooting.
@@bigdogstatus83he had a down year last year but his team’s offense still had the 7th highest offensive rating and 2nd most points per game last season, without him those numbers go way down. Bro has 1 down year and mfs act like he isn’t a top 5 point guard
Great vid, great research, great content ! Playing basketball for 40 years, I can only agree with the 4-point line - for professional only. Thanks
This is an amazing video with tons of effort put in. It’s impossible to know the true impact a 4 point line would have on the future games cause players would start practicing it more and more to become even more efficient.
And also teams would have plans on how to defend it better.
The full graph at 12:34 is really interesting because it shows that (apart from some outliers) the kind of people who frequently attempt shots from 30+ feet out are the people who *_know_* they can make that shot.
Very interesting. I'd push back on the idea that adding a 4 point line wouldn't change much. Although I get how you came to that conclusion , the issue with going back and retroactively changing shots beyond 30' to 4 points is that it doesn't take into account that the strategy in those games would be different. The data doesn't show how many shots from beyond 30 were last second heaves v shots forced under pressure v shots that are deliberately taken, etc. The only way to really know would be to play out games and see if like the average margin of victory significantly changes or something like that. Overall a great video though
The idea of a four point line in the NBA would simply be catastrophic and the league would never be the same again.
They should have it just for the all Star game or something.
Fantastic data and analysis! Great job compiling it so coherently!
Very interesting video! Thanks👍
My boy Young getting some deserved respect. Go Hawks 💪
overrated player.
@@bigdogstatus83heavily underrated wtf do you mean
@@jnthnmrry He is small and a liability. He's a volume shooter.
@@bigdogstatus83 he leads the league in assists every year, volume scorer that is efficient for the hawks offensive sets, good off ball shooter, lob threat, and on defense he clogs lanes and steals the ball, on or off.. he’s a phenomenal player
@@jnthnmrry Okay, I'd take many many players over him. He doesn't clog anything. Giving up Luka for him was so idiotic by the Hawks. Almost every Hawks fan admits that.
This just further clarifies why I like watching Trae play. Number one is he doesn't shy away from pressure, stepping up his performance whenever he gets a sniff of the playoffs. No fear. My favorite trait.
But then this video is exposing the other reason: he's like watching the circus or something! Just insane shots, out there shorter than anybody else just snatching souls. It's really fun to watch. Hope he creates a winner in Atlanta or wherever, I need to him every year in the playoffs like I used to need to see Reggie Miller.
Great job! Impressive analysis, and amazing video quality. Was a joy to watch.
The biggest problem with it is if there is a 4 point line it will revolutionize the NBA the same way that the 3 point line did but to an even higher degree. For example when the 3 point line was made everyone thought it was a bad shot until the game kept progressing eventually until now where people are complaining because how it has been exploited. Banger upload!!!
I totally agree. Defending three pointers and consequently the paint with todays spacing is already a killer. A 4 point shot with Trae Young like efficiency would kill every defense.
Right but even 30 years from now virtually no one would be any good at that shot. So let's say player X lives on the 4 line and you let him just jack of 30 4 point attempts per game. He would make one or two of those. I am not defending a guy that MIGHT score 8 total points from that distance. No matter how many players in the world practice this shot, it does not mean they would ever become elite at it
@@Wodz30 Wait... did that Video not establish that Trey with a 4 point line would be bonkers? We are talking 30% from 4 point range. I think you underestimate what is possible. At the moment its just not worth to shoot from 30ft, but with a 4 point line you 'd see the average effectiveness go up quicker than you'd like. I mean people are/were complaining about the 3 point line. Life finds a way or in this case: players and coaches.
Your thinking, perspective, analysis and production never cease to amaze, Jxmy. Thanks
Do i know anything about basketball? No. Did I watch the whole video? Yeah this was crazy to even think about
I never knew the WNBA had an all-star game. You learn something new everyday.
as a trae fan, i would love to see the 4 pointer in the league. at least for a season just to test it out
Dont bro i dont want to see players trading half courts
nah it would be funny seeing someone think they that good@@yason896
That means there would be more bags for offensive players….IMO it’s not a good idea…
Would spread the floor even more. Even more wide open dunks. Would be nothing but 3s,4s, layups and dunks back n forth with not much else, including defense. We’d be bored with it after a season, or sooner
until trae leaves in free agency, and your stuck with a new rule change without trae.
I’ve seen your videos with great interest. You are not only entertaining, but very educational for all basketball fans. Your obsesion for data is, and I can’t find a better word now, absolutely charming. Also, your voice technique is spectacular. I really enjoy your work.
Greetings from Chile.
The editing and the charts are superb, Jimmy videos are art and this is his special unique craft/ability
Hawks fan here would love to see the 4-point shot implemented immediately!!!!
don't worry here in the Philippines we are already implementing it, it's doing great watch PBA games
Amazing video. Trae has always been generational. He is a little ahead of the rest of the league. That said, if they added the 4 point line. That list would increase drastically. Lifetime Hawks fan. Most hate the way Trae shoots from so deep. Proof is in the video.
Can we give props to Jxmy for all the data he collected to make a quality video for us?
Doing tricks on it
@@KingstonDopesthu bro
@@KingstonDope💀
@@KingstonDope cant even support somebody and their work anymore these days 💀
the dedication this man went true deserves a sub i cant lie
There is no such thing as a JxmyHighroller video without seat geek or draft kings.
anybody else immediately go to eat a meal to sit & watch jimmys videos , they’re the perfect length
I think an interesting idea is: instead of a 4 point line at 30 feet, moving the 3 point line back a few feet. Would it balance the efficiency between elite bigs and elite sharpshooters? IMO, your very last chart makes clear that Jokic is actually even more dominant than meets the eye. He's shooting at an unmatched efficiency from close to the basket while also providing a ton of value through other means (assists and rebounds). What this tells me is that Jokic's dominance is being slightly stifled by the inherently higher value of 3-point shots. If we equalized efficiency across all ranges, he would be head and shoulders above the rest of the league, it wouldn't even be close.
Respect for grinding thru all the games last season 💪 also as a hawks fan this is an absolute win
A jxmy upload always brightens my day! Stay on the grind my man
The random green dot from ziare williams right under the other basket is wild at 9:29
The amount of work that goes into these videos are insane, keep it up jimmy.🔥🔥
I always appreciate the effort that jxmy puts into his videos
I love these videos they always blow my mind! Jimmy keeps me in the nba loop. It's crazy how the games evolved.
God I love this channel lol, this is such good content. I think a 4pt line would be fun for the NBA, but would be terrible for rec leagues all across the country as random Joes try their luck instead of making a smarter play lol
world hunger would be solved if this man did daily uploads
Fun fact: the PBA has the 4-point line PBA-->Philippine Basketball Association
Love this vid man, looks like you put a LOT of work into it ... that said, I think a 4 point line would be the final blow to any sort of enjoyable basketball.
Overall I like the analysis and the effort put into this video...I think one thing that should be mentioned is that the reason why Trae has more 4 pointers per season is because he joined the NBA after steph (and Dame) normalized high volume/long range threes. Also, Steph and Dame might be taking fewer 4s because they know in real life, it's only worth 3 points so they're better off taking a step closer since they'd have a higher chance of making it with the same points.
another part is that steph and dame have a better ability to work their way into the paint when they have a defender that far out compared to trae mainly due to his lack of size and strength, but also his handles aren't quite as polished just yet. not that trae can't do it as he has a really good floater and overall passing ability, but I think his shot selection should improve the more he plays
is no one gonna talk about the fact that 33% is abismal for only 3 points? Why is he taking those his ego is too big.
@@RaitonBrilI’d argue that Trae is faster than Steph and Dame and has just as good of handles. He can very easily get into the paint, but his size is the biggest factor in not doing it as much. But you’re right about his shot selection, that’ll get better as he gets older
I'm truly impressed by the info, execution and presentation of this video. Feels like a high class BBC documentary. Great job.
I’m a time traveler and I can 100% say that this video is a banger.
I just LOVE these videos, Jimmy! Mad respect for all the work you put into them, crunching numbers, evaluation the circumstances, and delivers the lines... Kudos to you, man, and keep it UP!
I love the fact that you have the data and can use it to make such interesting content. I'm an engineer that also loves to play bball and this hits two of my favorite topics...
Jimmy stays putting out bangers 💣
Awesome video. Wouldn’t defenses change to defend differently against a 4 point shot if it existed? Wouldn’t players be more likely to take shots from farther if they were incentivized? Would be interesting.
You're videos are so good and clear sir! Keep it up!
Thank you for all the hardwork and commitment for the stats Jxmy
Good analysis. From a fan perspective, I'd rather return to the old rules about dribbling (no carries or steering the ball) and offense fouls. (Offensive player who initiates contact is called for the foul.)
This would increase the tightness of the overall defense and diminish the overall offense, making it less offensively dominant.
Continuously blown away by the meticulous effort that you put into your videos. Amazing.
My boy Young getting some deserved respect. Go Hawks . respect to Jimmy for keeping us entertained during the off season.
In my opinion, if they were to do something like this, they should just make half court shots worth 4 points. Adding a 4 point line would make the 3 point line kinda redundant, and would make Steph Curry Way too overpowered. Making half court shots worth 4 points would be more fair, it would make the hardest shot in basketball worth considering as a potential buzzer beater and wouldn’t make point guards too powerful.
This might be one of the best videos I’ve ever seen on TH-cam…incredible job Jimmy! 🔥👏🏾
hey Jimmy, I would like to know how many points the opposition scores after each missed theoretical 4 points shot as a direct result of the miss. It would be interesting to know how many offensive rebounds are collected and how many misses lead to a direct attack and points against. The thing is that teams would not be so ready to transition into defense as the shot would pretty much surprise everyone on the field. Thanks...
Great video, but I would like to point out one VERY important factor to be considered. How were the 4 pointers taken? Were they chucks? Were they predetermined, set shots? Dame and Trae take predetermined shots from that far out. Many of Steph's 4 pointers are chucks. This changes how hard or easy these points came.
Yeah, seems like at the end of every quarter Curry is chucking up a shot from near half court--because he can make it over a quarter of the time. But because the shot is rushed and not planned, it's not usually a quality look. If he were to take planned 4 point shots from 30 out like Trae and Lillard often do, his shooting percentage on those shots would likely go up.
Exactly what I was thinking looking at the 4pt shot chart a majority of the attempts were absolutely end of quarter heaves. That takes down the 4pt % big time
One of the best mindblowing vids JXMY has given us
The 4 point line would be great imo. In terms of the way the games changed since I started watching it as a kid, I miss the old days of 2 bigs on the block, 1 in the drop ready to dunk but also, it annoyed me that a player like Shaq never shot 3’s like KAT can. Imagine what he would’ve averaged in his prime… but the 4 point line would actually bring a little of that back. I don’t think we would see bigs like Jokic or Embiid pulling from the 4 point line, just guards like Steph, Dame, & Trae Young. It would bring back the low screens but further out from the basket which would be insane to watch teams adapt & make plays for. And it would still allow a center like Gobert to have an impact without shooting because of further spacing. An absolute yes from me.
It would rend 5 completely irrelevant. It’s the spacing that killed them, add more and you’d only have players like draymond or kd as your 5 cause you’d need so much quickness from them to even attempt contesting layups. And high screens are already a thing
That sounds terrible.
hahahaah it's the fact that there are a lot of big that can shoot the 3's that causes the useless gobert to be a thing, with the 4 point gobert (and players like him obviusly) can only going to play somewhere in europe or china, absolutely a no no it's the 4's, instead the only thing the NBA needs to do it's simple let the players playing defense.
@@mediokah232 honestly I’m kinda lost, why would you want even more offense and spaces ? In the playoffs we see games with great defensive schemes but if you add such a blatant positive option for offense, ain’t no way the nba doesn’t become a half court shoot contest. And don’t get me wrong, it is cool from times to times (the bubble games with Murray Mitchell were crazy af) but I also love grindy games.
@@M4V35 the pick and roll dominance is a big reason behind the change in 5s nowadays, rendering defensive tower useless against top p&r offense
Now the philippine basketball have a 4point line
One problem with 4 pointers is that it is basically worth 2 normal possessions. It makes it to where an 8 point lead with 30 seconds left isn't really safe anymore since all it takes is 1 4 pointer and a cross court shot to be right back into it.
To be honest the 4-point shot would change defense far more than offence. Defending someone at the 4-point line and also making sure not to leave someone open near the basket is so much more different then doing it in a game, where a 4-point shot is just style points.
it would transform the game a whole lot, teams would 'have' to make sure that some player don't throw 4-pointers, while pushing other towards the line.
Interesting concept. Don’t think it’s best to implement the 4pt line unless it’s a half court heave since normal distance just isn’t long range anymore for most guys and a 4pt shot is a bit overkill if you ask me.
I agree, there shouldn’t be a 4 point “line” but shots beyond half court should be worth 4 points. I think this would make late game situations more fun but would make it so the 4 point line doesn’t get overused.