If you have three cards it’s the probability is one in: 6*6*6=216 if you have all rooms 7*6*5=210 if you have two rooms and one weapon or suspect 8*5*5=200 if you have one room one suspect and one weapon 8*6*4=192 if you had one room and two weapons or suspects 9*5*4=180 if you had no rooms two weapons or suspect and one suspect or weapon 9*6*3=162 if you had three suspects or weapons However this doesn’t account for the chance of getting said cards, and I may have made some mistakes.
Rehn Burner-Reeves Yeah! You got it accurate! I was starting to get very triggered with everyone who said 1/324 it literally pains my soul 😂. Well done 👍 🥳👊
Tip: okay so you had conservatory. You know its not that, so make multiple guesses in there and it is easier to narrow down. Same with the weapon and pperson. If you have green, guess him multiple times with a weapon that you have and its easier to narrow down the rooms.
2:24 there is an actual calculation Since you must get it all right on the first guess You must Guess one in all possible combinations To get all possible combinations You must take the number of suspects that could be it X the number of objects that could be used X the locations(6X6X9) it would be 324 So to say a 1/324 chance which is roughly 0.3%(rounded to first decimal place) But you must also calculate the chances after the three randomised cards and first speculation Edit: did abit of reset and turns out I was wrong boardgames.stackexchange.com/questions/35332/odds-of-100-first-turn-accusation-in-clue this link explains it quite well
The best odds possible for a turn 1 win without a blind accusation in a four-player game are 7/648 as Mrs. Peacock holding 5 cards. There are two probabilities at play here. First, the probability of reaching a room on turn one, which is not the same for all players, and then second, the probability of the resulting suggestion being correct on all counts (that is, no cards are shown to the player and [barring one exception] no cards in hand were used in the suggestion), which is dependent exclusively on the cards that player holds in their hands. We'll first look at the suggestion part of this, since that's where the bulk of the math lies. The best possible opening hand to get this result is either all suspect cards or all weapon cards. The odds for the first suggestion of the game being correct mostly depend on the cards the player making the suggestion has in their hand. There are 6 Suspects, 6 Weapons, and 9 Rooms. The effective odds for a player making a suggestion (presumably in a room they don't have the card for) can be determined by 1 / ((6 - held suspect cards) * (6 - held weapon cards) * (9 - held rooms)). The best case for this ends up being a situation where a player holds a hand consisting of either all suspect cards OR all weapon cards. In a 3-player game, in which each player is given 6 cards, the 6th card should not be a room (i.e. the best hands are 5 suspects and 1 weapon or 5 weapons and 1 suspect). Following this, the odds of a correct suggestion (or a blind accusation, for that matter) given the best starting hand and no other information are as follows: 3 Players: 1/45 (6 cards) 4 Players: 1/54 (assuming 5 cards) 5 Players: 1/108 (assuming 4 cards) 6 Players: 1/162 (3 cards) In a 4- or 3-player game, it is possible that a player may know either the Suspect or the Weapon just from their hand. In that case, it won't matter what they choose for that part of the suggestion, as your accusation does NOT have to be the same as your immediately-prior suggestion. In the case of knowing the suspect in particular, it is beneficial to name themselves in the suggestion so as not to give any other player a free suggestion on their turn by moving them to the room. While the remainder of this answer simply asserts we did get this best hand for simplicity of math, the probability of actually being dealt said best hand for a given hand size, for all cases other than a 3-player game, are as follows: 5-card hand (4 players): 240/1,028,160 (or 1/4284) 4-card hand (5 or 4 players): 240/73,440 (or 1/306) 3-card hand (6 or 5 players): 120/4896 (or 10/408) Having the best hand improves your odds of making the suggestion, but the only hard requirement would be not having the room cards for the rooms your pawn can reach on a roll of 12. Not all players have the same odds of making a turn 1 suggestion I will preface this section by noting that there are a few variants of the board that still have the rooms in the same spots, but do NOT have doors in the same spots. I'm using the most common board here for reference, which has all the players capable of entering a room with a move roll of 8. The roll required to reach the room closest to each character's starting position (and the room itself) are as follows: Ms. White: 8 (Ballroom) Mr. Green: 8 (Ballroom) Mrs. Peacock: 7 (Conservatory) Prof. Plum: 8 (Study) Ms. Scarlet: 8 (Lounge) Col. Mustard: 8 (Lounge OR Dining Room) Col. Mustard stands out as having two different rooms he can reach with a roll of at least 8, so even if Col. Mustard has one (and only one) of those two rooms in his hand, he can just go to the other one. This isn't particularly relevant to our calculations, as Mrs. Peacock actually has the best odds of reaching a room on her initial move roll, with odds of 21/36 (as opposed to the odds of 15/36 that everyone else has). Furthermore, the best possible hand for this doesn't include any room cards. With that, asserting that the best hand possible was dealt for this situation, for Mrs. Peacock, the odds for reaching a room on turn 1, making a suggestion, and the suggestion being correct are as follows: for three players, 7/540 for four players, 7/648 for five players, 7/1296 for six players, 7/1944
I love this game, even though it's based around you having no idea whether or not you committed the murder, having no clue where you found the dead body and also not having the basic human knowledge to check how they died due to injury. Of they died to a revolver THERE SHOULD BE A GUN WOUND! Strangled with a rope? CHECK NECK FOR BRUISING! Nah love this game man it's great.
If you want an extremely weird (and japanese) anime-style mario party with entirely diceroll based combat instead of minigames that's very good at making you hate your friends because of how much RNG is involved, 100% orange juice is an extremely cheap and highly recommended option (especially on sales) on Steam. A very, very weird game to say the least. But very entertaining to play with friends.
Jerome a strat for this is use 2 of the cards you own say you have plum rope consevetory and you go to the conservetory and use plum and not the rope and they show you something you know that its not that weapon or if they dont show you anything its the weapon you suggested
out of all this game i am curious to know which 3 card would be the best for you to start with. how many suspects, weapons or rooms would be best, and which ones
Depending on what you have in the beginning changes the chances of guessing first round. The best chance would be if you knew 3 people or 3 weapons that weren’t it, that would give you a 1 in 162 chance. If someone can find a better chance then please tell me.
Looking at the odds on the first round if there is 6 people, if the person was to make an accusation the chance would be a 4.8-6.5% chance of guessing it right.
I know why it it's them they don't know it! It's because after the crime is committed they get a memory wipe! Also: Jerome: MY ACCUSATION IS IT WAS ME!!! Other player: Hello, 911? Jerome: *Gets handcuffed* AT LEAST I WAS RIGHT!
So I was screaming while watching this so I couldn't hear anything then as soon as I stop screaming I heard drops you say boogie woogie woogie Jesus Christ that was adorable
When he guesses it and it's correct, but he's also the murderer:
*"I have won, but at what cost?"*
Your time is what is costed
The dead guy on the ground is Dr. Black / Mr. Black (UK version) His name is Mr. Body in the US version.
If you have three cards it’s the probability is one in:
6*6*6=216 if you have all rooms
7*6*5=210 if you have two rooms and one weapon or suspect
8*5*5=200 if you have one room one suspect and one weapon
8*6*4=192 if you had one room and two weapons or suspects
9*5*4=180 if you had no rooms two weapons or suspect and one suspect or weapon
9*6*3=162 if you had three suspects or weapons
However this doesn’t account for the chance of getting said cards, and I may have made some mistakes.
Rehn Burner-Reeves Yeah! You got it accurate! I was starting to get very triggered with everyone who said 1/324 it literally pains my soul 😂. Well done 👍 🥳👊
@@stevieb7695 me too
Finally, I was getting so fed up of people saying 1/324, congrats ! 👍
How many people were yelling at there screen saying "Jerome mark it off!"
Right here buddy
Typical Trashcan I would but I still have no clue what they’re doing
Michael Molina no CLUE ..... ha get it cause the games called clue
Y0UR.FB1-AG3NT Ok, boomer
He hurt my head the entire game when he circled the ones that were proven wrong
IT WAS ME
“gets put in handcuffs”
Well that backfired
Hi love your vids
Do a bored game at least once a week with everyone having a face cam pls. Also your the best
Tip: okay so you had conservatory. You know its not that, so make multiple guesses in there and it is easier to narrow down. Same with the weapon and pperson. If you have green, guess him multiple times with a weapon that you have and its easier to narrow down the rooms.
I’m so glad you are playing clue! It’s fun to see all of you interact! Very good video
Yay I loved the last Clue episode. Glad ya'll are posting more!
MATT IS CONFUSING
I didnt like how matt was acting in this video
I think he's the one who's confused 😂
dropsies evil laugh fills my life with joy
Do multi cam again
Vale : Cha cha real smooth
Dropsy : BOOGIE BOOGIE BOOGIE 😂
Moooooooore clue pls
Dropsy's laugh sounded like a witch joined the game to curse Mat at 29:23
I love this game! Please play more!!
2:24 there is an actual calculation
Since you must get it all right on the first guess
You must Guess one in all possible combinations
To get all possible combinations
You must take the number of suspects that could be it X the number of objects that could be used X the locations(6X6X9) it would be 324
So to say a 1/324 chance which is roughly 0.3%(rounded to first decimal place)
But you must also calculate the chances after the three randomised cards and first speculation
Edit: did abit of reset and turns out I was wrong boardgames.stackexchange.com/questions/35332/odds-of-100-first-turn-accusation-in-clue this link explains it quite well
The best odds possible for a turn 1 win without a blind accusation in a four-player game are 7/648 as Mrs. Peacock holding 5 cards.
There are two probabilities at play here. First, the probability of reaching a room on turn one, which is not the same for all players, and then second, the probability of the resulting suggestion being correct on all counts (that is, no cards are shown to the player and [barring one exception] no cards in hand were used in the suggestion), which is dependent exclusively on the cards that player holds in their hands. We'll first look at the suggestion part of this, since that's where the bulk of the math lies.
The best possible opening hand to get this result is either all suspect cards or all weapon cards.
The odds for the first suggestion of the game being correct mostly depend on the cards the player making the suggestion has in their hand. There are 6 Suspects, 6 Weapons, and 9 Rooms. The effective odds for a player making a suggestion (presumably in a room they don't have the card for) can be determined by 1 / ((6 - held suspect cards) * (6 - held weapon cards) * (9 - held rooms)). The best case for this ends up being a situation where a player holds a hand consisting of either all suspect cards OR all weapon cards. In a 3-player game, in which each player is given 6 cards, the 6th card should not be a room (i.e. the best hands are 5 suspects and 1 weapon or 5 weapons and 1 suspect). Following this, the odds of a correct suggestion (or a blind accusation, for that matter) given the best starting hand and no other information are as follows:
3 Players: 1/45 (6 cards)
4 Players: 1/54 (assuming 5 cards)
5 Players: 1/108 (assuming 4 cards)
6 Players: 1/162 (3 cards)
In a 4- or 3-player game, it is possible that a player may know either the Suspect or the Weapon just from their hand. In that case, it won't matter what they choose for that part of the suggestion, as your accusation does NOT have to be the same as your immediately-prior suggestion. In the case of knowing the suspect in particular, it is beneficial to name themselves in the suggestion so as not to give any other player a free suggestion on their turn by moving them to the room.
While the remainder of this answer simply asserts we did get this best hand for simplicity of math, the probability of actually being dealt said best hand for a given hand size, for all cases other than a 3-player game, are as follows:
5-card hand (4 players): 240/1,028,160 (or 1/4284)
4-card hand (5 or 4 players): 240/73,440 (or 1/306)
3-card hand (6 or 5 players): 120/4896 (or 10/408)
Having the best hand improves your odds of making the suggestion, but the only hard requirement would be not having the room cards for the rooms your pawn can reach on a roll of 12.
Not all players have the same odds of making a turn 1 suggestion
I will preface this section by noting that there are a few variants of the board that still have the rooms in the same spots, but do NOT have doors in the same spots. I'm using the most common board here for reference, which has all the players capable of entering a room with a move roll of 8. The roll required to reach the room closest to each character's starting position (and the room itself) are as follows:
Ms. White: 8 (Ballroom)
Mr. Green: 8 (Ballroom)
Mrs. Peacock: 7 (Conservatory)
Prof. Plum: 8 (Study)
Ms. Scarlet: 8 (Lounge)
Col. Mustard: 8 (Lounge OR Dining Room)
Col. Mustard stands out as having two different rooms he can reach with a roll of at least 8, so even if Col. Mustard has one (and only one) of those two rooms in his hand, he can just go to the other one. This isn't particularly relevant to our calculations, as Mrs. Peacock actually has the best odds of reaching a room on her initial move roll, with odds of 21/36 (as opposed to the odds of 15/36 that everyone else has). Furthermore, the best possible hand for this doesn't include any room cards.
With that, asserting that the best hand possible was dealt for this situation, for Mrs. Peacock, the odds for reaching a room on turn 1, making a suggestion, and the suggestion being correct are as follows:
for three players, 7/540
for four players, 7/648
for five players, 7/1296
for six players, 7/1944
I love it when they play this game
But did you hear the tragedy of Darth Plagueis the wise?
yes
Yeah
I would love more of this!
Me casually watching
Matt:THATS IT
Me: aight ima head out now
Me who almost had max volume during that part: 😨😨😨
You should do more vids with ssundee
I love this game, even though it's based around you having no idea whether or not you committed the murder, having no clue where you found the dead body and also not having the basic human knowledge to check how they died due to injury.
Of they died to a revolver THERE SHOULD BE A GUN WOUND! Strangled with a rope? CHECK NECK FOR BRUISING!
Nah love this game man it's great.
Well some of the murderwepons are kind of unlikly.
2:53 I played clue yesterday and those were the cards I was kernel mustard so I just said I must’ve been sleep killing again
What mustard would say: Yes! I’ve solved the crime, it was me!
Mustard again: Aww sh*t!
“Vale you picked Tewtiy again!”
“Wait wha-“
Awsome vid!!!! Thank you jerome for uploading you make me smile every day
You guys need to play more Cluedo
i never knew that jerry took the underground railroad.... the more you know 😂😂😂😂
Poor dropsy having to deal with JROM and vale
Yep
Did you really reply to your own comment? XD Im hoping that was done as a joke
Ex’s and the ooooo they haunt me! I see you dropsy 😂
Jerome a good strategy for Clue. Pick two cards you already have and then one card you don't. Then if no one gives that card you know it is correct.
If you want an extremely weird (and japanese) anime-style mario party with entirely diceroll based combat instead of minigames that's very good at making you hate your friends because of how much RNG is involved, 100% orange juice is an extremely cheap and highly recommended option (especially on sales) on Steam.
A very, very weird game to say the least. But very entertaining to play with friends.
Wow the fact that they bring up wining in your first round shocked me because last night i did just that
Jerome a strat for this is use 2 of the cards you own say you have plum rope consevetory and you go to the conservetory and use plum and not the rope and they show you something you know that its not that weapon or if they dont show you anything its the weapon you suggested
Should have crossed out Mr.Green Jerome, you have the study and Vale had the candle stick 28:00
out of all this game i am curious to know which 3 card would be the best for you to start with. how many suspects, weapons or rooms would be best, and which ones
Jerome here is a tip look for e.g killer First and to do that use your card in your theory
i prefer the board game if im honest. but this at least makes it clearer to see on a youtube video
Love this game
Matt reminds me of austin
4:14 that’s the wonder of the house. There is a story you know
Happy Holidays everybody! It’s the time of year to accuse yourself of committing a murder with a candlestick!
Depending on what you have in the beginning changes the chances of guessing first round. The best chance would be if you knew 3 people or 3 weapons that weren’t it, that would give you a 1 in 162 chance. If someone can find a better chance then please tell me.
Merry Christmas
the person on the ground is ben (frizzlenpop)
Id recommend discord on DND as we can hear the ding every time it goes off lol
Broccoli is derived from the wild mustard plant and so was brussel sprouts and kale and other veggies
You are cool bro I love your videos
Jerome had it for soooo long
Jerome you are awesome
Anyone notice that dropsy had an evil witch laugh at 3:56
Pls explain what dropsy was doing. 12:47
When a murderer just confess to his crimes XD
Jerome in the first one is basically the amnesiac not remembering that he was their
Hello
Iceecookiee
We eo
Hi
He shouldve done ssundees tactic
Do the cards he has and see if anyone has what he needs and widdle it down to a person room and weapon
It’s always got to be Vale with the revolver
He starts blasting
Yup
I agree with Blade mustard is gross
How is the Underground Railroad a bad thing that they got awkward about it? Wasn't it a good thing?
15:09 He literally gave away the billiard room by mentioning rooms and you didn't notice that.
More clue
Agreed
The dead person on the ground is Ben becuose he has a job in real life
do more of this
Good save Steve
what an ending! jerome was with nothing and somehow he pulled it off
i must agree with blade against mustard
Hey jerry
Jerome makes 300 + videos in 2 months all his channels combined
I still have no idea what is going on, but I like whatever is going on.
Where’s BEN
He got a job
He retired from TH-cam
He has a car dealership
Ty S got a job
Bro this makes me happy and hello Steve my name is graham
And matt
Looking at the odds on the first round if there is 6 people, if the person was to make an accusation the chance would be a 4.8-6.5% chance of guessing it right.
Hell nah it possible because i watch videos every day even 2 times a day
Hi Jerome!
In First two minutes dropsy swore I’m happy some more diversity
does nobody else realise Dropsy rarely talks in clue
It drives me CRAZY watching Jerome play this game. He's so oblivious during other peoples turns.
Is dropsy evil
I know why it it's them they don't know it!
It's because after the crime is committed they get a memory wipe!
Also:
Jerome: MY ACCUSATION IS IT WAS ME!!!
Other player: Hello, 911?
Jerome: *Gets handcuffed* AT LEAST I WAS RIGHT!
Blade you are absolutely correct mustard Is toxic waste.
29:24 What the......
You have a 1/81 chance to get it right on the first turn if you have 6 players
Nice posture, Nice posture, Nice posture, Nice posture, Nice posture, Nice posture, Nice posture, Nice posture,
LOL. Jerome didnt solve it. He finally confessed out of pity😂
I love clue soooo Much
2:41 it's a 1/216 chance that was an easy calculation all I needed to do was 6x6x6 (I don't know what ^ this character because I'm only in grade 6)
With max people
What I do is random co-op then use all the cards I have then final accusation one of and see who also loses by thinking they can win
I agree with blade cuz I don't like mustard either
So I was screaming while watching this so I couldn't hear anything then as soon as I stop screaming I heard drops you say boogie woogie woogie Jesus Christ that was adorable
9:23
When i played, it was my turn and when i called no one showed me a card, so i immediately guess and got it right lol
Ok boomer
i had to rewatch the whole video just to understand how the card on the right worked
Please play more scrap mechanic
so the person who goes first has an advantage yeah?
Mustard is bad and mayonnaise is an instrument but looks like white diarrhea
1 view 2 likes,perfectly fine
Blues clues
WE WANT MORE CLUE