Aaron Judge and the Goldilocks Ball
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 14 มี.ค. 2023
- A note that are a lot of assumptions in making this video and until there's a publicly available dataset of the balls sampled in the Insider article can't say anything about the sample size being accurate. The assumptions I made give the largest Goldilocks sample size possible, but it may be much smaller if not all commemorative stamped balls were Goldilocks balls.
Take everything with a grain of salt.
Twitter: / dead_baseball - กีฬา
I’m so glad baseball isn’t dead so I can enjoy another video
As a Mets fan, I was really hoping your conclusion was going to be he might not have broken it, but your in depth analysis is unmatched. Great stuff, cant wait for more
Glad you enjoyed
I have to give you a lot of credit here. My usual critique of your very entertaining videos is that there are often some sensational claims that can be a little misleading. But this was done very carefully, methodically and fairly, which I appreciate.
I'm wondering what my sensational claims in previous videos were.
@@BaseballsNotDead he's still salty about Air Bud
absolutely love ur vids man never even watched baseball but you got me into it
@@BaseballsNotDead yk just general tuber behavior, prioritizing entertainment over investigational integrity it isn't anything personal or an insult it's just the grind
@@BaseballsNotDead that baseball’s not dead
“Opinion this” “opinion that” I’ve seen way too much of it at this point….
Which is why I love these videos theres almost never any opinions, or atleast any opinions that aren’t heavily backed up with insanely thorough analysis and evidence. Superb
The exit velo at the end could be a consequence of the Goldilocks ball, and should not be considered to be a static factor, maybe? Also, the Statcast HR probability doesn't really matter for the individual HR analyses. In the end, it looks like you looked more at the landing point each HR, which I think is the main relevant factor. As for a possible cause of Goldilocks balls, my guess based on your info is that all of those special stamped balls were done in the same batch (i.e. the stamps aren't "causing" Goldilocks balls)?
I live for these type of videos. They are so enjoyable that’s why I always watch right when I get the notification that he posts.
Thanks!
Brother you have one of the best intros on TH-cam
Hey man, i just wanna say that your videos have got me back into baseball again. I actually applied to work at Dodgers stadium because i wanna be around baseball again! I appreciate your videos and thank you for being you!
That is awesome!
Baseball sucks nowadays. I’d literally rather watch that minor league banana team or college softball. The mlb & the Commissioner are so bad.
@@codygooch510 i don’t necessarily agree with that, but i get where you’re coming from! Yeah baseball isn’t the same as when i was a kid (grew up in the 2000s) but Aaron Judge just broke a home run record. do with it what you will but cmon, a record being broken?! Baseball is as exciting as you want it to be. you can sit through 3 hours of baseball and hate it or you can enjoy the fact you’re watching Americas oldest sport and seeing freak athletes hit bombs. I’ve been a Mets fan since i was a kid and we have always sucked, but i’d still watch my team and enjoy the game! everyone is entitled to their opinion and i respect that! but please leave the negativity at the door dawg! 🙏
God I love the videos so much, really makes me think so much deeper and really appreciate the uniqueness of baseball! Thank you.
Love how thorough you are in your work, good stuff!
I appreciate that!
Amazing video, your presentation of the data was superb! Keep it up man!
Glad you enjoyed it!
Love the amount of research you put into your videos. Like it or not at least your conclusions are pretty dang thorough, bro.
Been enjoying all these videos! Definitely subscribed after I watched the Nolan Ryan WAR video!
Great analysis. Your comment comparing the number of intentional walks between Maris in '61 and Judge in '22 raises in interesting point. The 1961 Yankees lineup was stacked from top to bottom. You'd have to be nuts to intentionally walk Maris with Mickey Mantle on deck, followed by Yogi Berra and Elston Howard.
Yankees need better protection for Judge lol
Next video idea: How Judges 2022 HR season compares to the other top 10-20 HR seasons of all time, and which ones are truly great for distance, number of actual chances, etc. because some just aren't as amazing as others that are
@@sneersh9107 im here from the future, they have Juan Soto to protect Judge now lol
This was really interesting, but I have a question about the methodology. Your analysis seems to assume that the only effect of a dead ball vs juiced vs goldilocks is going to be its response to contact at a given launch angle and velocity... but it'd seem to me that a lighter ball is going to react differently to air turbulence imparted by its spin -- and that the reason a dead ball may produce fewer homers isn't just that its fly ball to HR ratio is different, but that its movement when pitched is less likely to create solid contact in the first place. A heavier ball will have more momentum / higher inertia and will be shifted off course less by otherwise equal outside forces acting upon it -- so air resistance will push it off course less, creating less break (and thereby being easier to hit).
All of Judge's homers could conceivably been sure things regardless of the ball given their exit velocity and launch angle, but that doesn't mean that he would have ever had that exit velo / launch angle combo if he'd seen a pitch using the dead ball.
Barrel rates are a fun stat.
First of all, love the analysis and thorough research with statistical normalization. I do have a question regarding the comparison you made with 2019 stats and how only Pete Alonso broke 50. While the balls were obviously juiced in 2019 the pitchers were also running unchecked with Spider Tack and other substances. Once those were banned and the hand checks were introduced, we saw a rise in offensive production and a drop in a lot of pitcher performances. Do you think that this could've played a factor in those 2019 Home Runs numbers?
Very small difference. Number of balls in play between 2019 and 2022 was almost identical (24.34 per game versus 24.41 per game) and BABIP was higher in 2019.
@@BaseballsNotDead Gotcha, thanks very much!
@@BaseballsNotDead Balls in play were the same, but what about fly balls?
Here's what I have a problem with: The cumulative effect of things that may be rigged. What I mean by that is, let's say we have an NFL game with a blatant missed call on the deciding play of the games like Rams/Saints. If we look at that call on its own, it's very clearly the deciding factor and looks very suspicious. However, there's no way for us to know how many other tiny calls, balls nudged slightly toward or away from the true line of scrimmage, nuances with the play clock, TV timeouts, whatever that could hypothetically manipulate the entire momentum of the game. This could be the difference easily of this play being on say the 30 yard line or the 50, or, more likely, possession ending up being with the other team in this situation. In this case, Judge hitting slightly better than he'd expect, more balls over the infield maybe, perhaps a couple fringe balls at the wall, whatever, builds his confidence right? Confidence is going to MAKE him a better hitter. It doesn't have to be blatantly obvious for it to have a measurable effect. The reason I use the word "measureable" is not that it's actually measureable or statistically meaningful. What I mean is, we don't know what the alternate timeline looks like where there is a proper dead ball used from beginning of season to end for Judge. We just don't. I could have saved myself a million words by just saying the butterfly effect isn't real, but momentum in sports is close.
Amazing analysis of the data, this question has been on the back of my mind forever, but never got around to looking at all of Judge's late season home runs to come to a conclusion. Good to know he basically deserves the record. On another note, this makes me want to see analyses of the World Series in 2018, where each team was accused of using a baserunner system to steal signs. How someone hasn't combed through that footage for proof yet surprises me.
1:12 I was at that game on the left, I was actually walking by the Jersey Mike's when Rengifo hit BOTH of those HRs
Your channel should have more subs, great stuff
Thanks!
I think something important to realize is that the juiced ball didn’t help already good power hitters hit for more power, it made more average guys look better
Great video. You continue to put out some of the absolute best baseball content, not only on YT, but pretty much anywhere. I don't want to assume, but I'm guessing Camden Yards isn't on the list at 7:59 because the change in LF dimensions would skew the data?
Always a good day when Baseball's Not Dead uploads
Great analysis! Loved the explanation of methodology and approach.
100% agreed with your tweet and wanted to know more at the time. Thanks a bunch for the video, and clearing our captains good name! 😂
I love how you can have a video full of numbers, math, and spreadsheets right next to a video with the scientific criteria of 'yeah that looks like baseball to me'.
Love the video, great analysis, but not sure if you’re asking the right question here. I think the question should be, did the mlb attempt to unfairly assist a single player in reaching a particular stat by providing a certain ball that wasn’t uniformly being used throughout the league? Whether it actually did make a difference or not is kind of a moot point. For example, if a player uses performance enhancing drugs but his overall stats and level of play remain the same, showing no notable improvements, isn’t he still liable for at least attempting to gain an unfair advantage regardless of if he was successful or not?
Yooooo I didn't know about this. Great video
Thanks!
Love your channel
Appreciate the analysis and all your videos. I have a question about the way you calculated the HR/FB rates you use to compare the dead and goldilocks balls (and their expected difference in travel). You did your best to eliminate ballpark factor, but couldn't the player factor have a significant affect on the HR/FB rates? If the goldilocks balls were used in Yankees games down the stretch and (apparantly all?) Angles games in 2022 (among other uses), wouldn't that bias the data set by including many games with prolific HR hitters (Judge/Ohtani/Trout). No idea how significant this could be, just curious.
1:35 god I still remember that play. I sat there stunned and disbelief. I love Pujols now but back then I hated his guts. Also felt bad for Lidge because the man was excellent. I was happy for him when he had that perfect season a few years later.
I remember Pujols talking about trotting the bases after he hit that home run. He said it got so quiet that he could hear his feet crunching in the dirt. Which is beyond wild.
Idk how you could ever hate Albert
I can’t believe you took the machine out of the intro
Seeing judge play even better than his record breaking season the past two years gives me hope that he eventually breaks bonds overall season record if fate lines up and judge is healthy for a full season
Great analysis! One thing I'd add though is data sourcing has a good reason to stay hidden; non-union employees would be easier to track and thus get fired if that information was public.
Just found your channel. I played D1. Love baseball and dig your work. Keep them coming. Lgfm!
I love the intro music so much.
keep it up every video is great.
Thanks, will do!
If you keep pumping out this level of content, you’re gonna blow up this season. Foolish Bailey is quivering. Keep up the good work!
He shouldn't be. He's good people and makes great stuff.
@@BaseballsNotDead didn’t mean to put shade on Bailey. I love his stuff too and I hope both of you keep up the content.
Your research is insane! Haha love it
Thanks!
Great work! I do have one question though, did Judge benefit at all from the goldilocks balls in Texas or Anaheim earlier in the season?
If my assumptions are right on all commemorative stamped balls being Goldilocks balls (could be wrong on that since we just don't have the data), he did get one HR in Houston on July 21st but it was clearly a no doubter.
@@BaseballsNotDead Awesome, thanks!
question, would the slightly heavier or lighter ball affect the pitching? like the spin rate, velocity, command and make it easier to hit etc?
Impressed by the methodology and video in general BND
Love it. Had already decided to ignore the goldilocks ball report as relates to his achievement last year, but this in-depth analysis definitely reinforced that call.
From the Insider article: "The only Goldilocks balls we obtained from the regular season that did not have commemorative stamps were from Yankees games."
Why is this the case? If the ball were more juiced because of the stamps then how come balls in Yankees games belong in this category?
They had invisible stamps for authentication purposes.
Why is the hr to fb rate the same for both dead ball and Goldilocks games? I feel like they should be different because it doesn’t seem possible for them to be exactly the same.
Good analysis
Great vid!
Thanks!
1:20 - 1:52 What's the BGM name? I don't see it in the description and Idk what it's called... sorry
All of this "assumes" that Judge only got the better balls for about 2 months. But MLB gave the better balls to the Dodgers and Houston the whole season. I am willing to bet they gave the Yankees the same treatment the whole season.
You said that you worked with manufacturing and how you talk about it makes it sound like you worked with analyzing the manufacturing process, that and your EXCELlent use of excel. Did you you work as an engineer?
I was an engineering project manager. So while I didn't do the actual design, I did coordinate everything (construction, mechanical, electrical, process) for integration and rollout of new technology and processes (which included a lot of troubleshooting and documenting and fixing defects) and do have an engineering degree.
You know, Jake Tapper, I figured you would be a bad rip-off of Baseball Doesn't Exist. But you're way better. Subbed. Also you're my favorite CNN employee.
Am I tripping or was Camden yards not included in the graphic 8:00
You aren't tripping. For some reason fangraphs didn't have Camden yards data on their split finder for 2023 so I exclude it from the analysis.
So all the games with Trout, Ohtani and Judge had perfect balls. Fucking sus.
As a Red Sox fan, Im not going to lie, I was really hoping that I could point to this and say "See! He wouldn't have gotten it!". Why did you have to ruin this with logic and stats. Great video as always
I think the amount and or method of mud put on the balls. It’s literally a guy scooping it out of the bucket and rub it on by hand. Of course there’s other slight variables… but the truth of the matter is, even if every ball was made identically, there will still be different reactions from the balls after hit by a bat
How come Camden Yards is not included in this?
What's the name of your intro song? I feel like i've heard it before
Why not apply the Goldilocks balls advantage to the probability of a home run and determine if any were aided that way or is that what you did and I missed the explanation? Seems to be the most logical way to approach this task
The exit velocity depends on the type of ball. For better analysis, the exit velocity needs to be adjusted. You need to re-normalize the average exit velocity (dead) and the average exit velocity (Goldilocks). For now, your analysis is only for the drag coefficient.
That has its own pitfalls because spin is one of the biggest aspects in distance and no source tracks that.
Nice vid bro, but could These goldilock balls have affected the Pujols final stretch of the 700hr push?
Would love to see this - I've been so skeptical of the chase for 700. Good for Pujols, but it literally came out of nowhere.
I think everyone would be fine with juiced balls and pitchers using sticky stuff just make it consistent and league wide. I hate the possibility that one team can be getting fed juiced balls while another is playing with regular balls
the fenway one over the monstr I'd argue with a dead ball would be impacted more since it would reach an apex sooner and drop a lot sooner. I'd say probably not. I think it would be oming down off the monster.lets say it hit it's peak at 250 with thegoldilocks I'd argue with the deadball it's hitting its apex at 235 with that low of a velo and angle.
Baseball’s not dead…but the ball might be? 🤔
Great video. Enjoy your work.
You are amazing
Regardless of the very minor differences between the balls, hitting 60+ home runs without steroids is a remarkable accomplishment that can only be done by a player who gets half of his at bats at a park as small as Yankee Stadium.
As a Red Sox fan and therefore expert on how much the Yankees suck, I can say with 100 percent confidence that Aaron Judge would have 0 homeruns if there were no goldilocks ball.
Ah, come on. I think he'd have at least 1 or 2.
@@BaseballsNotDead maybe 1. Definitely not 2.
Great video, I think you nailed it. Unlike pitchers using substances to help with spin, I really don't understand why people are trying to hold the baseball against against Judge and his performance when he and every other batter have no control over the ball being used. I hate this selective narrative trying to invalidate Judge's season. I haven't heard anybody try to invalidate the great hitting seasons of Ohtani or Trout even though the Angels were using the Goldilocks ball too. None of these guys or anyone else who hit exceptionally well in 2022 needs the Goldilocks ball imo and I wish we could just enjoy Judge's historic season for what it is, good baseball.
It’s laughable that people think Judge needs the juiced ball, he’s 6’7 280. Guys like Judge, Stanton, and Oneil Cruz are essentially dead ball proof considering their size if you think about it
Am I crazy or is the Orioles stadium absent at 8:12
Not crazy. Omitted it because fangraphs splits don't have it for 2022.
A thing people also don't mention is that pitchers were scared to give up those post-60 homers. If they weren't intentionally walking him, they were pitching around him. So circumstance suggests he mighta hit #61 a bit later with a deadened ball but like I doubt he wouldn't have been able to hit 62 because he probably shoulda hit more than 62 this year lol
I dont think they were scared to give them up then anymore than any other point of the season. Some of the teams they were facing were out of the race and some in tight pennant races.
I actually think as it gets closer they are scared not to pitch to him as even their own fans get frustrated over it. I think you saw that back in the McGwire Sosa chases and the Bonds chase. I feel like pitchers dont want to be the one that chickens out and the pressure of the situation can cause them to throw poor pitches that lead to HRs.
This is better than that other baseball is not something channel
Comparison is the theft of joy.
After your baseball movies one and this, I gotta wonder how you don't even have half the subscribers of these idiots talking baseball. Quality stuff, as always. Cheers from Alaska!
Cheers!
So after all that it's a high probability that 62 was possible and a most likely 61 would have occurred. What was his HR/plate appearance number? If no intentional walks were given how many extra HR would have occurred? Too much math 😪
the biggest issue is the shady x axis on that first graph. if it started at 0 i doubt anybody cares
mesmerizing... slow-motion... dingers...
o sorry, what were the conclusions?
Was intrigued by your “steroid-assisted season” comment as well, and was interested what your thoughts were about Eric Walker’s (and others) research which indicated the increased HR totals of the steroid era were due more to the juiced baseballs than to juiced players.
Can't believe that a game played for close to 150 years hasn't figured out the ball they play with
It's pretty funny how this is such an issue in Modern Baseball.
Like, how stringent were baseball regulations back in the early 1900s? Would Christy Matthewson really care if the ball he just got was a little heavier, or more oblong, than the previous one? Probably not.
Hell before the spitball was banned for killing Chapman the Ball would notoriously be a muddy, black, disgusting heap of leather by the end of the game. I'm sure that impacted exit velocity!
But back then it didn't really matter. Now Baseball has entire manufacturing plants and scientists making baseballs specifically in an automated way to suit their needs! And because of that we have controversy where before there was none... Funny how times can change.
Even though the balls were rigged to help Judge the pitchers were also grooving him pitches. Judge was getting batting practice balls to hit every game, dirty!
I think it’s funny u said “we can’t just say the numbers are right that he woulda hit about 14.3 homers instead of 16 and then did the tape study to end up with about 14.5 homers lol
Lol black screen randomly
You had something with regards to the manufacturing process. When you're talking about "grams," you could be talking about stitching that has 12 threads as opposed to 10 threads, 6 extra rubber wraps, or even canvas from the seam eyelets that got crammed down in the stitching...MLB isn't going to weigh every single ball, nor are they going to worry about a "gram," anyway.
As a lifelong Blue Jays fanatic, I'm STILL beyond confident, that Judge's 62 HR's is 100% fact.
the Paul Harrell of baseball videos
Some major league ball club needs to hire you right now, and put you on a 6-figure salary!!! This is remarkable dedication, and hard work.
I wonder what Ohtani thinks about all this
I don’t really get why MLB is so secretive about their balls. Other sports leagues change their ball constantly. It would give MLB a lot better look if they just said “hey we want to make some changes to the ball, here’s what’s happening”. Like I get that there’s a large part of MLB fans that absolutely hate change but still there are better ways of implementing change
Great video but I question the assumption that all commemorative balls were Goldilocks balls
I do too... but until they release the dataset any attempt at analysis is built on a lot of assumptions.
It makes sense. Those balls are primarily made with the purpose of giving the audience a show during such things as the All-Star break, and the plebeians are obsessed with home runs. It’s only business.
I really can't stand how baseball can't get out of their own way with the variation in baseballs seemingly year to year, paired with the lack of transparency about their integration, affect on the game or anything in between. We shouldn't have to talk about whether players are benefiting or suffering statistically based on the ball, which in turn affects the outcome of games, player salaries and more. At least if they were up front and transparent, we could have an easier time drawing conclusions for ourselves instead of relying on crazy hypothetical or abstract statistical theories.
if this turns out to be true then the record should be disqualified just like i think bonds 73 should be.
Today from Baseball's Not Dead: baseballs are more dead than you might think.
Could also be the mud they put on the balls
So are you saying THE baseball is not dead or that baseball is not dead?
You're the first person to get at least one of the double meanings when I first named this channel.
@@BaseballsNotDead Ill give myself a cookie then. Not a figurative baseball cookie, but a literal cookie.
Ive been enjoying the channel. I only recently came across it, but I hope you get many more subscribers. Your naration voice is very good as well, so I think it suits you.
Regardless of the juice, Manfraud, former lawyer, will always be sus in my book.
The first 2 in most likely a hr should’ve been probably not.
This guy sounds like what Manfred was spewing out.
What Judge did last season was special. Best season by a Yankee player in my 30 plus years of watching the Yankees as a fan.
In my opinion, the ball didn't matter as much as the way pitchers pitched against Judge going down the stretch. However, that's just my biased opinion as a huge Yankees fan of over 40 years. GREAT VIDEO! Your research and editing do don't go unnoticed.
So a baseless, biased opinion with literally nothing to back it up lol
@@jtstew he literally said that he’s biased, good job repeating him though lol
As an Astros fan, Aaron Judge is a scary dude. Any team would be very lucky to have him
Damn dude, your data has a flaw unless the video doesn't show when you remembered that you left out CAMDEN YARDS?!?! In the words of Rodney Dangerfield "No respect I tell ya".
Judge had his worst homer spurt of the season at the end w these balls.
I'd also say that it's kinda dangerous to just be like, oh well he still would've gotten 60. Okay, but he didn't. If he's got 62 legit, he's got it. We shouldn't have to make concessions for it. It needs an asterisk even if it didn't make a huge difference because the record isn't AT LEAST 60, it's specifically 62.