1. L.A. Bank Robberies (1980s-90s): - Concentrated epidemic (25% of US bank robberies) - Driven by few key individuals (superspreaders) - Didn't spread to other cities - Shows how trends can be geographically contained 2. Vermont Medical Practices: - "Small-area variation" in medical procedures - Treatment patterns varied dramatically between nearby areas - Driven by local medical culture, not patient demands - Shows how practices spread within communities but not between them 3. Waldorf Schools & Vaccination: - Much lower vaccination rates than other schools - Shaped by school's "overstory" (community narrative) - Parents become more vaccine-skeptical over time - Shows how community beliefs influence behavior 4. COVID-19 Spread (Boston): - Most early strains failed to reach tipping point - Biogen conference: single superspreader caused 300,000 cases - Demonstrates "Law of the Few" - small number of people driving large effects - Scientific evidence shows some people produce far more aerosols
00:11 Introduction 00:43 Stick-up fever 03:45 Small-area variation 06:34 Overstories 09:34 The virus that went nowhere - and the one that went everywhere 12:26 The Law of the Few
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1. L.A. Bank Robberies (1980s-90s):
- Concentrated epidemic (25% of US bank robberies)
- Driven by few key individuals (superspreaders)
- Didn't spread to other cities
- Shows how trends can be geographically contained
2. Vermont Medical Practices:
- "Small-area variation" in medical procedures
- Treatment patterns varied dramatically between nearby areas
- Driven by local medical culture, not patient demands
- Shows how practices spread within communities but not between them
3. Waldorf Schools & Vaccination:
- Much lower vaccination rates than other schools
- Shaped by school's "overstory" (community narrative)
- Parents become more vaccine-skeptical over time
- Shows how community beliefs influence behavior
4. COVID-19 Spread (Boston):
- Most early strains failed to reach tipping point
- Biogen conference: single superspreader caused 300,000 cases
- Demonstrates "Law of the Few" - small number of people driving large effects
- Scientific evidence shows some people produce far more aerosols
00:11 Introduction
00:43 Stick-up fever
03:45 Small-area variation
06:34 Overstories
09:34 The virus that went nowhere - and the one that went everywhere
12:26 The Law of the Few