Are We Living Through a New Cold War? With Robert Kaplan | Intelligence Squared
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 5 พ.ย. 2024
- The great dilemmas of geopolitics are not battles of good against evil, where the choices are clear. They are contests of good against good, where the choices are often painful, incompatible and fraught with consequence. Robert Kaplan joined political philosopher John Gray on May 22 to explore these major themes and discuss his acclaimed new book The Tragic Mind: Fear, Fate, and the Burden of Power.
Kaplan’s ideas come not from the armchair or ivory tower but from a career spent reporting on wars, revolutions, and international politics in Europe, the Middle East and East Asia. His conclusion is that the essence of geopolitics - the battle of space and power played out over a geographical setting - is tragedy, at the core of which is the necessity for humans to understand their limitations and know that not every problem can be fixed. Hence what he sees as the hubris of the Iraq war, when Western leaders thought that they could fix a problem abroad, only to wreak havoc because they failed to ‘think tragically’. Exploring the global balance of power between the likes of the US, Russia, India, and China, Gray and Kaplan share their insights on how viewing events through a tragic lens could help leaders make better decisions.
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Warning: if you want to hear even more of this pair agreeing with one another about everything, you'll have to pay.
This was more than enough.
China US war will have catastrophic consequences on financialmarket that will be unprecedented
A nice pair of Atlanticist gents reminiscing about the past.
Follow-up questions:
1. Have any of our policies or actions contributed to the current cold-war-like situation?
2. Is there any way we can change our policy/behavior in order to relieve tensions?
when you control everything you cannot lose what you have so...
I think permanently normalizing trade relations with China in 2000 was probably one of the single largest contributors to their continued rise in the last few decades. It opened the floodgates. As far as relieving tensions, who knows? That's the 64,000 yuan question, right? I don't think anything short of internal regime change and a complete reconfiguring of society in China will ease tensions. Not gonna happen any time soon, and not gonna happen without a bloodletting the likes of which we haven't seen since Mao.
Слава Героям Украины,
Её вооружённым силам!
Алга Казахстан!
Жыве Беларусь!
Post-Cuban Missile Crisis - so both US and Soviet Union were stared into the abyss and terrified thus led to some deescalating moves such as 9:57
They did not solve their fundamental problems but built border so that they do not dragged into an accidental war
He suggests that the current situation is akin to a post-Cuban Missile Crisis scenario, with both sides cautiously navigating their next steps.
15:18 Middle East vs Europe
He explains that while Europe has the building blocks of democracy and could potentially thrive, the same cannot be said for the Middle East. He draws parallels to the dashed hopes of the 1990s after the Cold War and emphasizes that success in Ukraine does not guarantee success in other parts of the world. Additionally, he mentions the expansion of Russia's influence in parts of Africa, highlighting that Russia's presence is still expanding in certain regions. The conversation also touches on the idea of a post-Putin Russia, with the assumption that it will be more benign, but Kaplan believes that this is a lot to assume and that the future of Russia after Putin is uncertain.
we have always won and we will always win cause we are better
Robert Kaplan discusses the Biden Administration's approach to the situation in Ukraine, stating that they want Ukraine to win but are concerned about a catastrophic victory that could lead to chaos in Moscow. He also highlights the potential consequences of a Russian collapse, including a massive wave of refugees and the unleashing of multiple conflicts between mercenary groups
32:30
Kaplan explains that Russia is less institutionally stable than China, as there is no clear mechanism in place to replace Putin if he were seriously threatened. Additionally, he emphasizes the opaqueness of Russia's inner workings and the presence of shadowy groups, making it difficult to predict actions or understand power dynamics. Overall, Kaplan argues that Russia's state capacity is significantly lower than that of China during the Cold War.
Wow, so intersted to hear what a Neo-Con like this has to say. Brilliant stuff. His credentials are so amazing. His support for the Iraq War makes me even more interested to hear what honest and genius thoughts will pour from his highly credentialed head.
Hey, his wiki says he joined the Israeli Army. Wow, he's a real American alright.
The NeoCons destroyed Iraq Syria Libya Afghanistan and will end up destroying Ukraine.
You should take his descriptive statement and disregard his prescriptive claims; if you disagree with his politics, like I do.
Who cares how American he is? Is he right?
During the Cold War, while the Soviet had great bombs and space programs, they lacked a robust economy that was interwoven with the world at large. If the Soviet economy collapsed, it had little impact upon the world.
But now the circumstances have flipped because the collapse of China’s economy would have unfathomable and incalculable consequences for the independent and interbreeding world😊
between the current geopolitical situation and the Cold War. While some people refer to the current situation as a new Cold War, Robert Kaplan argues that there are significant differences. Unlike the Soviet Union during the Cold War, China is a full-spectrum power with a strong economy and influence in various sectors. Additionally, the interconnections between the US and Chinese economies make disentangling them almost impossible. Moreover, the current world order is non-binary, with second-tier powers like Russia, Iran, India, Brazil, and South Africa having a significant impact on the major powers. Overall, the complexities and uncertainties of the current situation make it fundamentally different from the Cold War era.
As it turned out Ukraine did poorly in the war in 2H 2023 and there is no Western triumphalism.
11:35
Not all democracies were benevolent and not all authoritarian states are oppressive
Interesting conversation. Sobering, yet realistic. Thank you. One thought: you strive for a world not based on two systems (democracy vs. totalitarianism) but based on the rule of law, which I absolutely agree with. Yet you argue that holding Putin responsible for starting an imperialistic war where a large nation attacks a smaller nation could lead to conflict and therefore indicting heads of state should not be done... If we believe in the rule of law, which is I would argue indirectly the same as democracy where through the rule of law the people choose by whom they want to be governed, and we want countries who are in the grey zone between totalitarianism and democracy to follow us, we should not fear the consequences of upholding the rule of law and hold heads of state, also of the large countries, responsible. Life and freedom are not for the fearful, they are for the brave.
"Yet you argue that holding Putin responsible for starting an imperialistic war where a large nation attacks a smaller nation should not be punished.."
Russia attacking Ukraine was not a one off move. It was more like moving a pawn in a chess game as an opening move.
Russia takes Ukraine (it thought that would be easy) , it already has Belarus. Then there is the Baltic States, Poland Romania to take. The end game is bringing down the USA. They in Russia even talk of taking Alaska back.
Russia talks in terms of being prepared to take decades to achieve a goal of making Russia a big empire again.
World government is not feasible as it will be more repressive so world governance with great power goodwill
the speakers discuss the limitations of a legalistic model of international relations and the challenges of dealing with leaders who have committed crimes. They agree that indicting heads of state as war criminals can prevent potential deals and prolong conflicts. They highlight the importance of understanding the tragic nature and complexities of geopolitics, as well as the need to sometimes choose the lesser evil. They also touch upon the idea of world governance versus world government, with both acknowledging the oppressive nature of a world government and the need for improved global procedures and representation.
All government oppresss: it is not impossible to have a global government no more oppressive than State governments, and possibly much more peaceful due to the suppression of war.
Not all suppression is bad.
Mr.Kaplan's understanding of China is not enough to make any judgement valuable to take. Sorry
6:47 The more integrated the world is the more potentially unstable it is
Does anyone wonder if the shabby performance of the PLA in the battle of Juba in 2016 gives any indication of how an invading Chinese military would perform in Taiwan? The PLA has not been battle tested since its disaster in Vietnam back in 1979. Surely the Taiwanese military would pose more of a mortal threat to rank and file PLA than the poorly equipped South Sudanese?
Agreed not 100 percent but a very erudite and insightful discussion..
We have stop worrying about saver rattling!
I would suggest multiple binary issues in most countries, with the dividing lines being mismatched, resulting in the suggested grey.
Grey within the countries as well as the global level.
I believe our species is in its adolescence stage, moving towards adulthood & full responsibility for our actions, the planet & life upon it.
note:- a stab at the time scale for this transition, some where between 100 & 5000 years.... who knows.
Also, my beliefs expressed above are in part why I have been for the lasts 20 years or so, & will continue to suggest that humanity is mid speciation.
26:54 Tragic Thinking in Statesmanship
Yes
7:25 It is stabilizing in Medicine, Culture
Interesting, but too naive. Were you able to predict a total failure of Russia in weeks ? I put triple doubts on it.
The fee is too much!
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I was wondering why I hadn't heard of Kaplan. Then he opened his mouth. "China is full spectrum". Nope. They sure aren't. Go do your homework.
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Managerial class minded people, mixed with control of information and a complete goal of monetarily being monitored.