Around the 34 minute mark, there is a suggestion that China will be able to import Russian gas (because no-one else will be buying). Is this actually possible? That is, can Russia actually physically transport gas (and/or oil/coal) to China? Peter Zeihan described the Russian eastern and western fossil fuel production systems as being completely separate, with no way of transferring oil or gas between them. There is an existing pipeline to the far western region of China, but that's also where Mongolian imports terminate. That is, there isn't any existing capacity to send oil or gas to the industrial and highly populated regions of the Chinese coastline. SOME coal can presumably be shipped out (or sent to China by train) - but Russia has very limited port locations for shipping any resources from Western Russia. Murmansk/Archangel in the far north is unlikely to be useful. St Petersburg in the Baltic is both a shallow water port (large ocean-going ships can't dock there) and any exports would have to go past a LOT of EU members, not to mention require EU insurance. So, that leaves Sevastopol and Novorossiysk on the Black Sea, currently in a war zone (so problematic for shipping insurance) and having to transit the Bosporus, controlled by Turkey. Not to mention the challenges of transporting Methane gas if you don't already have a pipeline in place, i.e. you not only have to find LNG tankers but may also need to construct a LNG terminal that can compress and store the gas prior to shipment. Is this wrong, i.e. can Russia actually expand its transportation infrastructure to be able to send resources to China? (A new pipeline would likely take a decade or more to construct.)
Gas is the hardest one, you are right. They are looking to put another Power of Siberia pipeline and new Altai pipeline, but the scope for Russian gas is going to be limited. A lot of the LNG cargos (which are not that significant as most of Russia's exports are pipeline) will end up in China. For coal, Syncretia has some pretty deep modelling and good info syncretica.substack.com/p/marking-to-market?s=r - coal looks like it will mainly come in by train. It will be difficult, but a non-trivial amount should end up in China. Other port issues exist as you note. But I also note that there is a lot of money in evading sanctions... The oil is probably the easiest, but will require weeks longer at sea and more ships. But, at $100+ they could spend $40-50 on discounts and transport and still make good money.
solar produces a lot in summer and falls off during winter a lot, how much more battery capacity will you require to offset this annual peak and fall in power. Given that you can have weeks and weeks of bad sunlight in winter time. how much battery capacity will be required for example to shut off the Loy Yang Coal power station, currently running at 3280MW of power. and have enough margin to take care of all conceivable weather conditions that stop solar.
So pleased to see a fundie focusing on the extraordinarily destructive impact on our population of the unrestrained predatory behaviour of energy cartels, with whom both sides of parliament repetitively collude. Would love to hear a little more about the tax structures that mining/gas/oil companies use to allow them to minimise tax.
Great work gents
Really enjoyed this session. Thank you
The recent history of Methane gas in Australia was interesting, ty.
Around the 34 minute mark, there is a suggestion that China will be able to import Russian gas (because no-one else will be buying). Is this actually possible? That is, can Russia actually physically transport gas (and/or oil/coal) to China?
Peter Zeihan described the Russian eastern and western fossil fuel production systems as being completely separate, with no way of transferring oil or gas between them. There is an existing pipeline to the far western region of China, but that's also where Mongolian imports terminate. That is, there isn't any existing capacity to send oil or gas to the industrial and highly populated regions of the Chinese coastline. SOME coal can presumably be shipped out (or sent to China by train) - but Russia has very limited port locations for shipping any resources from Western Russia. Murmansk/Archangel in the far north is unlikely to be useful. St Petersburg in the Baltic is both a shallow water port (large ocean-going ships can't dock there) and any exports would have to go past a LOT of EU members, not to mention require EU insurance. So, that leaves Sevastopol and Novorossiysk on the Black Sea, currently in a war zone (so problematic for shipping insurance) and having to transit the Bosporus, controlled by Turkey. Not to mention the challenges of transporting Methane gas if you don't already have a pipeline in place, i.e. you not only have to find LNG tankers but may also need to construct a LNG terminal that can compress and store the gas prior to shipment. Is this wrong, i.e. can Russia actually expand its transportation infrastructure to be able to send resources to China? (A new pipeline would likely take a decade or more to construct.)
Gas is the hardest one, you are right. They are looking to put another Power of Siberia pipeline and new Altai pipeline, but the scope for Russian gas is going to be limited. A lot of the LNG cargos (which are not that significant as most of Russia's exports are pipeline) will end up in China.
For coal, Syncretia has some pretty deep modelling and good info syncretica.substack.com/p/marking-to-market?s=r - coal looks like it will mainly come in by train. It will be difficult, but a non-trivial amount should end up in China. Other port issues exist as you note. But I also note that there is a lot of money in evading sanctions...
The oil is probably the easiest, but will require weeks longer at sea and more ships. But, at $100+ they could spend $40-50 on discounts and transport and still make good money.
If WA is keeping back a percentage of its gas, unlike the Eastern states, it looks to be the logical state for manufacturers to set up and thrive.
interesting and informative, but please stop tapping the desk/laptop .
solar produces a lot in summer and falls off during winter a lot, how much more battery capacity will you require to offset this annual peak and fall in power. Given that you can have weeks and weeks of bad sunlight in winter time. how much battery capacity will be required for example to shut off the Loy Yang Coal power station, currently running at 3280MW of power. and have enough margin to take care of all conceivable weather conditions that stop solar.
So pleased to see a fundie focusing on the extraordinarily destructive impact on our population of the unrestrained predatory behaviour of energy cartels, with whom both sides of parliament repetitively collude.
Would love to hear a little more about the tax structures that mining/gas/oil companies use to allow them to minimise tax.
Disappointing episode but appreciate the teams time.