Thanks Chuck! I know you don’t like revisiting these securities this frequently, but I wanted to add that your unwavering option is reassuring and appreciated. Everyone makes their own investment decisions, but I think the lack of news or new information on a declining security is unnerving for many. Everyone wonders if they are missing something that others are seeing.
Its been 3 months today - I think video said maybe take a look after a change? Dropped 30 percent this morning to 3.50. What do you think now. Buy more, hold or bail?
I dont like them. Because nothing changed except the dividend so update is not needed. Chuck is not babysitter. Person who cannot do simple math never should be stock picker at firts place. Update is good only when fundamentals change and they did not. Only dividend get lowered so company will be healtier.
Hi Chuck! I'm wondering whether today's news about MPW and Steward Health Care affects your assessment of MPW. Is MPW still a buy? Or at least a hold? Thanks very much for your reply!
Thank you very much, Chuck, Mr Valuations. I have been following the stock, start @ ~ $10/sh, and presently ~ $8/sh. And I do intend to add some, lower the average, and to hold on the stock. Thank you for your comments and I am also confident that it will bounce back. Again thank you very much
Never presenting as an infallible mystic with Oracle of Delphi powers, your presentations are always clear on stating an honest appraisal of the fundamentals in stock valuations. Thank you Chuck for all you do for us, (an individual investor). (and thank you for "fast graphs" a tool to think with.)
thx chuck i can tell its annoying for you to keep revisiting, but it is appreciated. MPW is either going to be one of my best or worst investments the past year... your analyses are helpful to keep an even keel and confidence in the logic. Have a good weekend!
Thank you, Chuck. I'm surprised you're revisiting this. I also continue to nibble, bringing my cost down. I'm in for the duration. I suppose I wouldn't be so calm if I didn't keep your advice in mind.
I like MPW too and am still holding and nibbling as well. That doesn't mean I'm not concerned about some things.The talk of the price recovering/doubling in a year during the great depression leaves out the fact that it was likely interest rate related. With interest rates going from ~2.1% in Mar of 2008 to ~0.18% in Mar of 2009, how could it not have doubled. Howard Marks' sea change and all the Fed talk of higher for longer means there is still rate risk. Especially worrying to me since one of MPW's answers in a recent investor call was that they expect rates to fall soon and that will ease things for them to get back on plan. That's being hopeful, but not a real plan... Still I'm bullish on this one, or is it just me being hopeful 😂
The point about the recovery and nothing to do with interest rates. I don't think today's drop is really interest rate related either, the company had real issues with tenants. Nevertheless, their working to resolve those issues in many cases have. The point about the stock moving back to a fair value PE is a reversion to the mean reality that I clearly illustrated in the video. Things like interest rates, 10 issues etc. are simply catalysts. If it's not one it will be the other. But in the long run the fundamental achievements in this case FFO levels will determine where the price goes in the long run as I stated in the video. Regards, Chuck
IMO, this looks similar to MPW in 2009. They had a single tenant that accounted for nearly 35% of their rents who had issues. Ultimately, they found new tenants and diversified better. I think they forgot the lessons they learned in 2009. Same management, so they shouldn't have issues righting the ship again.
Great update, thanks! I’ve bought in three lots with the largest, by far, earlier this week to average down below $7/share. It’s rare “Mr. Market” gets this desperate and offers this low entry point. I appreciate your long view perspective. & Just think with our recent astronomical inflation how much more the replacement cost of this valuable real estate is!!
I might be in the minority here, but I bought this for the capital appreciation and not the dividend. Due to the low valuation, I'm viewing this one more as a value investor than an income investor.
Chuck, I'd love if you could do an update of O, Realty Income, with your take on it's valuation and prospects in relation to current fixed interest investments. Many of your viewers and FG subs own or are considering O. Thanks so much !
I knew that name was familiar. I had to mute that shit on twitter. Relentless was my experience as well. I don't know the short thesis. But I don't think it's comparable to game stop. Regardless. Good luck investors. Gotta love fear. Smells like victory 😭🤣
I think reit's and regional banks are underpriced. Fundamentals are very important especially for us older investors. I may not agree with everything Chuck says but I respect his opinion and experience.
I've been buying since $20 and I plan to be adding and averaging down as long as I can. Criminally undervalued. Will double easily-meanwhile, just dividends are worth it. Thanks.
To all, here is a video update from Chairman and Pres. of MPW Edward K. Aldag, Jr. to access the video go to their website where you will see message to shareholders October 2, 2023: www.medicalpropertiestrust.com/
Thanks! Hope to see better 3rd quarter results. That' s the best message he can give shareholders. Nevertheless I appreciate a chairman taking the time to say something to the shareholders during a (for some) stressful period.
I'm pretty stress out too with MPW! I started buying it back in 2017. I have a Dollar cost averaging of $15 and a loss of 61%. But at this point and 3k+ in shares later, I cannot afford to sell. I'll be loosing 61% of my original investment. Great video and Thank you!
That's a decision that only you can make...I'm comfortable holding and as Chuck said until their fundamentals deteriorate I will either DCA down more or hold....the dividends are nice as I wait.@@Miti1
I’ve been adding MPW all the way from 14 to 5.1 - classic falling knife so far. My main worry are not historical numbers or even analyst’s future predictions. It’s rather current management moral and intentions. Do this size of a company (3B market cap) really need 3 private jets which look to serve as private transportation between holiday homes. Other worry is company’s ability to pay any divided (or survive) when current debts start maturing and refinancing will be painful assuming interest rates are even in current level?
I understand your concerns, but considering that it is a real estate company with properties all over the country and world, the planes might be more than a luxury. Additionally, a REIT is required by law to pay out 90% of distributable income, and management is working to shore up the balance sheet. Whether they succeed or not time will tell. It might be helpful to watch the video I added to the comment thread above. Regards, Chuck
This analysis is reasonable and makes sense. I am not selling, but I did discontinue reinvesting dividends. I can invest that income in other investments that do not offer as much risk. They will be doing well 3 yo 5 years from now.
Given all information available, I believe all stated in the video. But MPW is highly risky with unclear management strategy, they are not being transparent.
I also stated that in the video and said that is only BB be rated which is below investment grade. But this is typically what you get with high-yield investments. Risk is relative.
you dont mention the operators which are having trouble the actual tenants who cannot pay rent as required. You dont mention the debt load?? You don't mention the short interest
I covered that in previous videos including a very comprehensive article written by my associate James long. This was a simple update, and I leave it up to you to do your own comprehensive research as you should always do. Regards, Chuck
Thanks Chuck. I'm I understanding this correctly? MPW is taking payments from clients in the form of equity in their businesses. The clients are struggling, got to wonder what the equity is actually worth. As a share holder in MPW and this is actually going on, we should be able to look at the clients financial statements now that we're part owners?
Than you Chuck! A true patient value investor! Please do a vide on $WBA and $WPC. Both got hammered very hard recently. I plan to hold both for a long time, but it is hard to be honest.
W. P. Carey management showed, that they cannot be trusted. Even worse, they must think that investors are stupid, by not releasing all the details of their deal. With such a management team, I do not want to be part of that company any longer...
@@Mondknall Thanks for the comment! Fair point and this echoes a lot of comments on Seekingalpha. I have about 100 shares and was thinking to sell the spinoff and buy a bit of $WPC at the current price. I own WPC shares primarily for income. But at current interest rate level, all REITs face essentially the same dilemma, even very high quality REITs such as $O, $ESS and $AMT. I do not own too much REITs, but one outlier is $IRM which performed remarkably well.
@@laciepyu255 They did not release specifics on their future dividend policy, just vague ranges. Same for how the asset deal of selling and transferring the office properties came to fruition. On top of that they announced this just a week after they had declared (and raised) the dividend. All of that are red flags by itself. You can add on top of that that Realty Income already got rid of its office properties 2 years ago. That excluded Orion office Reit is down 80% today. That is what WP Carey will get today at the worst market sentiment for office reits. Much much less of what they would have gotten a few years ago. That again shows just how bad the management team is in this Reit. You can add several other stuff on top like throwing away your dividend track record just one year before they would have achieved dividend aristocrat status.
Thanks for update Chuck, I would like you to focus also in debt , not only earnings lines, in case of REIT's things like Debt To Gross Book Value , that looks bad for MPW, and it translates to painful times ahead for MPW with rising interest rates, but there has to be reason to go down so much, otherwise wouldn't go down. I also believe this is a opportunity of a decade.
I always appreciate your content, but what about: - interest rates - debt - very poor diversification among tenants, with biggest tenant in financial difficulty - management not being transparent to shareholders and therefore not trustworthy - cashflow statement -> even after dividend cut, their cashflows don't cover the dividends - the (A)FFO growth is mostly fabricated by share dilution/debt, interest rates popped this bubble and it's still bleeding - management made nice easy money the past period. Bubble pops, now (A)FFO goes to debt holders to avoid bankruptcy, not to shareholders (dividends) - junk grade credit rating
I think you're overthinking it. There's is obviously riskier but that is why the potential reward is so high. By the way, I don't believe there is never a bubble in MPW . As I pointed out in the video it was occasionally overvalued but never in a bubble. Instead, it ± traded at normal or reasonable valuations. Regards, Chuck
I sold this one a while back and put it in SCHD. Never had a big position because of the credit rating. It's hard for me to buy a stock that has cut their dividend as probabilistically those companies don't tend to do good long term. But might be worth a look again as the recession plays out.
... and here we are again. Not interested in rehashing logic, but trying to learn from the experience. Seemed like MPW made since to me initially and after this video and my analysis, seemed like maybe good candidate to buy on dips. Since I had as much in as I was comfortable already, took the hold as my reinvestment. Later when dropped from about 5 at time of this video, dropped to 4.20 and I figured what I might be willing to "invest?", cut it in half and bought a little more at 4.20. Kicked myself for not doing more when climbed back above 5. .... then today, down 30 percent to 3.50 when news came out MPW loaned more money to a client to pay the rent. Sometimes seemingly value stocks continue to go down. In this case pacing buys over months didn't seem to really help. Wonder in hind sight, what should have been a red flag for me other than the stock was going down?
I've learned my lesson to not ignore shorts. They might artificially pull down prices but if a company is as shorted as heavily as MPW more bad news will kill the value of a company. Enough other stocks to choose from that are a lot less risky. I could have spend all on $O as well. Would have been a much better REIT play.
I'm still a long term holder continue to DRIP into the stock.I also sell otm options and buy more shares.Thanks for the video.Hapoy investing/stacking.
Hi Chuck . Wondering if you could revisit UGI. Seems very oversold and now offering almost a 7% divi for a dividend champion for 36 years and Fastgraphs future potential looks great.
Thanks Chuck, interesting view. I’m holding my position too. We’ll see…. What do you think about FMC ( undervalued with FG charts) and RTX ( fair valued with FG charts)
FMC is in a similar situation because there primary pesticide is coming off patent, earnings are expected to drop 15 to 20% but the stock price just as with MPW has significantly overreacted. The big difference here is analysts expect the stock to recover because in contrast MPW this is a growth stock. I think it's one the watch and recognize that you are very unlikely to the perfect bottom. Nevertheless I do think it is a long-term buy at current levels. Regards, Chuck
A $0.15/share dividend will be issued for (I assume) the first quarter. MPW sold a 75% interest in Utah hospitals for $886 million. The press release also mentions that "Simultaneous with the closing of this sale transaction, the Venture placed new non-recourse secured financing, providing $190 million of additional cash to MPT based on its share of the proceeds and further confirming underwritten asset values," and "Brings Total Liquidity Transactions Year-to-Date to $1.6 Billion, or 80% of MPT’s Initial FY 2024 Target" Earlier this week MPW sold several hospitals to Prime for $350 million ($250 immediately with $100 million more due later) HOLD the LINE Chuck and get the shorties squeezed out NOW!
Since it's a REIT, don't they have to pay out 90% of profit as dividend? So how do they cut the dividend? By paying off debt to lower their current profits?
I did dump 500 of my shares when it went back over 7$, bought back the 500 shares from 6$-5$. Only position other than intel I have attempted this on. My guess worked out.
I hold MPW, but there is something really rotten going on. With over a 31% short and individual investors hold about 17% of the total stock, the shorts are getting their stocks from institutional investors. I´m not sure what kind of institution would loan out their stocks to be shorted like this. Hopefully with positive earning the shorts will have to cover and we could see a huge upside with the amount of stock that is currently being shorted.
If they had to sell all their buildings, especially the off-shore ones, would they be able to cover their debt? Things have changed for the worse in commercial RE, and you could argue, it's hospitals, it's different...yeah maybe....
You are recommending this stock since a year when it was at 13 dollar all the way down over and over again and suddenly your average buying price is 6 dollar? sounds odd... You also said you don´t think they will cut their dividend... I like your analyses but is it so hard to admit that you were wrong here?
its not about being right or wrong. i didn't think they should have cut the dividend, but they did. From there the objective is to adapt and adjust. But the most important point is we wont really know until a market cycle passes. I believe and continue to believe that this business is worth more than the market is valuing it. I am not alone in that view as I showed in this update. regards Chuck
I’m still holding based on fundamentals. My cost basis is closer to 9$. How about a go back review of a company you highlighted a few months ago where the fundamentals have deteriorated. I speak of Advance Auto Parts. Is it a sell now?
Very useful information. I am betting that your analysis (which agrees with Joseph Houge, BTW) is correct and the market is wrong. But, I am not betting enough to really hurt me if I'm wrong - I never do that.
Excellant analysist of MPT. I bought it for the same reason. I have an unrelized loss of over half my original investment but like you, I believe hospitals are not going away. Recently I went to a clinic and hospital in Little Rock.Ark and had great difficulty finding a place to park. Hospitals are always that way. As long as there is great demand for their services any profit problems will be temporary and fixable. The CEO owns 18 million in MPW's stock so is incentivised to work through their current problem. They are selling off assets to reduce debt, and the sales reflect their assets are reslistically valued. I am reinvesting dividends at the lower market prices to dollar cost average a lower cost, yet reciveing dividends at $.15 per share. The only alternative at this point is to sell the stock and realize the loss.
I believe the drop is in regards more to the pending lawsuits . Will have to see how those go before making a decision . If they lose stock will drop to the basement
I guess the saying from Peter Lynch is most appropriate for MPW - “The key organ for the stock market is not the brain, but the stomach,’’ easier said than done!
Could you please please please talk about the debt levels over time? This seems very important! Fastgraphs is telling me that the current P/FFO is 3.25 ... but TEV is 3.11 times market cap. If I do the math, that means the TEV/FFO ratio is 8.0. Not terrible, certainly ... but how does it stack up to historical levels?
Fully valued and that's important for slow growth utility. Regarding the payout ratio, since utilities tend not to grow very fast they typically can only attract investors by offering high dividend payout ratios and normally higher yields than the average stock. Regards, Chuck
@@FASTgraphs I find the Custom Valuation Ratio incredibly useful. I put today's P/E (15.96) and so easy to see that it touches the line but rarely goes lower. So if you want on this train, looks like now's your chance. And if it drops lower, that's a rare opportunity.
Chuck, I love your software and how it visually combines fundamentals and price. I personally don't use the software but I use a similar approach to investing on my channel.
No comments on balance sheet (10b debts), sales of good assets for surviving. Rates still high, in 2025 they need to pay over 500mil annually just fot rates
How do you comments the events that took after this video is made and a 30% fall in the price? Do you think it is a good stock to buy? What are the possibilities of bankruptcy? Have you changed your mind about the stock? I myself am buying this now seeing it as highly over sold.
Excellent video. I'm smiling because I knew you'd be a good sport with the peanut gallery. They don't get that in value investing, if it's a good investment at $10, it's even better at $5, if the underlying business proposition is holding. All they need to know is that you added to your position. So they can learn from your words and your actions. I'd love to hear your thoughts on BKH (Black Hills Corp). P/E 13.4, best in 9 years. Thank you. Keep them coming. I'd pay money to hear you talk in your sleep. 🙂
Well another point to consider, hospitals take up large areas and are built strategically to be near growing or large populations. Even if the current owner is doing poorly, a competitor can't quickly build a hospital next-door to compete or take marketshare.. in even the worst case scenario I'd think the competitor would do best have to buy the already zoned hospital and just refurbish and re-organize it whether adding additional buildings etc.
Thanks Chuck, it is interesting that you did not mention a word, why the MPW is valued as it is and you did not touch a high debt maturities in coming years. Thast why there is such a storng short interest, because company has not so much money to pay their debt, revolving sources are also mostly used, so their only option is to sell the assets to cover at least some debts in 2024/2025. Why you did not mention this?
@@FASTgraphs Thanks..you wanna compare video from 29.9. (which should be up to date) with half a year old blog post? Since 1.3.23 a lot of things changes, stock price decline much more than 50% since then. And based on your comment MPW for sure does not have 892$ mill. on their balance sheet now. This is also a joke: "Based on the best available information and comments from the management, we would expect the dividend from MPW to be safe for at least 2023"
Thanks Chuck, seems still a high div? I hold some but sold about half my position since my dca cost basis being closer to 10.If you are correct seems maybe worth buying now.
Need another MPW update!
Thanks Chuck! I know you don’t like revisiting these securities this frequently, but I wanted to add that your unwavering option is reassuring and appreciated. Everyone makes their own investment decisions, but I think the lack of news or new information on a declining security is unnerving for many. Everyone wonders if they are missing something that others are seeing.
How about now - after dividend cut, is below 4.20
This stock is going down to 0.
@@davebean2886And management tried spinning it as a positive like the conmen they are.
Its been 3 months today - I think video said maybe take a look after a change? Dropped 30 percent this morning to 3.50. What do you think now. Buy more, hold or bail?
We like MPW updates
This is the way
I dont like them. Because nothing changed except the dividend so update is not needed. Chuck is not babysitter. Person who cannot do simple math never should be stock picker at firts place. Update is good only when fundamentals change and they did not. Only dividend get lowered so company will be healtier.
WOW, Chuck has a babysitter?! What's your rates?
Hi Chuck! I'm wondering whether today's news about MPW and Steward Health Care affects your assessment of MPW. Is MPW still a buy? Or at least a hold? Thanks very much for your reply!
Thank you very much, Chuck, Mr Valuations. I have been following the stock, start @ ~ $10/sh, and presently ~ $8/sh. And I do intend to add some, lower the average, and to hold on the stock. Thank you for your comments and I am also confident that it will bounce back. Again thank you very much
Never presenting as an infallible mystic with Oracle of Delphi powers, your presentations are always clear on stating an honest appraisal of the fundamentals in stock valuations. Thank you Chuck for all you do for us, (an individual investor). (and thank you for "fast graphs" a tool to think with.)
thx chuck i can tell its annoying for you to keep revisiting, but it is appreciated. MPW is either going to be one of my best or worst investments the past year... your analyses are helpful to keep an even keel and confidence in the logic. Have a good weekend!
I continue to keep the faith and be greedy on this one! LOVE your videos on this one, Chuck!
Thank you, Chuck. I'm surprised you're revisiting this. I also continue to nibble, bringing my cost down. I'm in for the duration. I suppose I wouldn't be so calm if I didn't keep your advice in mind.
I own about 1000 shares with an average cost of $8. I'm still buying.
I like MPW too and am still holding and nibbling as well. That doesn't mean I'm not concerned about some things.The talk of the price recovering/doubling in a year during the great depression leaves out the fact that it was likely interest rate related. With interest rates going from ~2.1% in Mar of 2008 to ~0.18% in Mar of 2009, how could it not have doubled. Howard Marks' sea change and all the Fed talk of higher for longer means there is still rate risk. Especially worrying to me since one of MPW's answers in a recent investor call was that they expect rates to fall soon and that will ease things for them to get back on plan. That's being hopeful, but not a real plan... Still I'm bullish on this one, or is it just me being hopeful 😂
The point about the recovery and nothing to do with interest rates. I don't think today's drop is really interest rate related either, the company had real issues with tenants. Nevertheless, their working to resolve those issues in many cases have. The point about the stock moving back to a fair value PE is a reversion to the mean reality that I clearly illustrated in the video. Things like interest rates, 10 issues etc. are simply catalysts. If it's not one it will be the other. But in the long run the fundamental achievements in this case FFO levels will determine where the price goes in the long run as I stated in the video. Regards, Chuck
I meant to say solely interest rate related. Interest rates were certainly a contributing factor but don't over what their effect.
I tend to agree. I see the interest rate landscape playing a large role in any share price recovery over the next few years.
IMO, this looks similar to MPW in 2009. They had a single tenant that accounted for nearly 35% of their rents who had issues. Ultimately, they found new tenants and diversified better. I think they forgot the lessons they learned in 2009. Same management, so they shouldn't have issues righting the ship again.
Great update, thanks! I’ve bought in three lots with the largest, by far, earlier this week to average down below $7/share. It’s rare “Mr. Market” gets this desperate and offers this low entry point. I appreciate your long view perspective. & Just think with our recent astronomical inflation how much more the replacement cost of this valuable real estate is!!
I might be in the minority here, but I bought this for the capital appreciation and not the dividend. Due to the low valuation, I'm viewing this one more as a value investor than an income investor.
If you give it time, depending on your cost basis, I think you will be rewarded. Regards, Chuck
Chuck, I'd love if you could do an update of O, Realty Income, with your take on it's valuation and prospects in relation to current fixed interest investments. Many of your viewers and FG subs own or are considering O. Thanks so much !
MPW is being shorted not quit like gamestop(GME) but still keep beating the drum Chuck!! We still buying! 😊
Is this the one hedgeye is shorting?
@@yamomanemjazzYes. Big Time and relentless.
I knew that name was familiar. I had to mute that shit on twitter. Relentless was my experience as well.
I don't know the short thesis. But I don't think it's comparable to game stop.
Regardless. Good luck investors. Gotta love fear. Smells like victory 😭🤣
I think reit's and regional banks are underpriced. Fundamentals are very important especially for us older investors. I may not agree with everything Chuck says but I respect his opinion and experience.
I've been buying since $20 and I plan to be adding and averaging down as long as I can. Criminally undervalued. Will double easily-meanwhile, just dividends are worth it. Thanks.
The voice of reason, thanks Chuck. 👍
Thank you, Chuck. This update was welcome and helpful. I appreciate you.
To all, here is a video update from Chairman and Pres. of MPW Edward K. Aldag, Jr. to access the video go to their website where you will see message to shareholders October 2, 2023: www.medicalpropertiestrust.com/
Thanks! Hope to see better 3rd quarter results. That' s the best message he can give shareholders.
Nevertheless I appreciate a chairman taking the time to say something to the shareholders during a (for some) stressful period.
I'm pretty stress out too with MPW! I started buying it back in 2017. I have a Dollar cost averaging of $15 and a loss of 61%. But at this point and 3k+ in shares later, I cannot afford to sell. I'll be loosing 61% of my original investment. Great video and Thank you!
An Update to O would be great!
I think O is as cheap as I have ever seen it and an excellent long-term buy at current valuation.
Thanks 🎉
Thanks Chuck. Follow the fundamentals. Stay the course.
Thank you for giving us another update
Thank you for the update on MPW Chuck, much appreciation from England 🇬🇧
Chuck, you managed to bring the cost basis from 10$ to 6$...Respect!
Ditto....I've DCA to $6
@@MikeVictory Great. I am still @11. But just waiting to see where to jump in. Price range between 4-5$ seems to be interesting for long investors.
That's a decision that only you can make...I'm comfortable holding and as Chuck said until their fundamentals deteriorate I will either DCA down more or hold....the dividends are nice as I wait.@@Miti1
Chuck!!!!! I’m freaking out! How likely are they to fold now with the Stewart news
Thanks Chuck. Evidently with MPW there are buy, sell and Hold your hand. I’m adding shares.
I’ve been adding MPW all the way from 14 to 5.1 - classic falling knife so far. My main worry are not historical numbers or even analyst’s future predictions. It’s rather current management moral and intentions. Do this size of a company (3B market cap) really need 3 private jets which look to serve as private transportation between holiday homes. Other worry is company’s ability to pay any divided (or survive) when current debts start maturing and refinancing will be painful assuming interest rates are even in current level?
I understand your concerns, but considering that it is a real estate company with properties all over the country and world, the planes might be more than a luxury. Additionally, a REIT is required by law to pay out 90% of distributable income, and management is working to shore up the balance sheet. Whether they succeed or not time will tell. It might be helpful to watch the video I added to the comment thread above. Regards, Chuck
15k shares this morning @ 4.75.. Let the fun begin
Bought 100 shares at $4.89 price average for my Roth. I'll enjoy seeing the upside from here once the panic and short selling fades off.
Mr. Chuck, can you kindly do another update? I know it's only been 3 months but... it's under $3.50 right now. Thank you!
This analysis is reasonable and makes sense. I am not selling, but I did discontinue reinvesting dividends. I can invest that income in other investments that do not offer as much risk. They will be doing well 3 yo 5 years from now.
Got in today at $5.26
Given all information available, I believe all stated in the video. But MPW is highly risky with unclear management strategy, they are not being transparent.
Nothing new man
I also stated that in the video and said that is only BB be rated which is below investment grade. But this is typically what you get with high-yield investments. Risk is relative.
@@centrino538 that's my point nothing new other than the price dropping
@@FASTgraphsexactly 🙂
What about the latest Viceroy report stating that MPW is a fraud?
The longer it stays low, the better. I buy more shares with the dividend
you dont mention the operators which are having trouble the actual tenants who cannot pay rent as required. You dont mention the debt load?? You don't mention the short interest
People are so short sighted.
Well, debt loads can make the company run out of time... So it is a factor.
For comparison, were they also in trouble during the GFC, when the P/FFO was nearly the same?
I covered that in previous videos including a very comprehensive article written by my associate James long. This was a simple update, and I leave it up to you to do your own comprehensive research as you should always do. Regards, Chuck
@@Mondknall real estate is typically bought with debt and that applies to homes, buildings, farms, you name it
Thanks Chuck. I'm I understanding this correctly? MPW is taking payments from clients in the form of equity in their businesses. The clients are struggling, got to wonder what the equity is actually worth. As a share holder in MPW and this is actually going on, we should be able to look at the clients financial statements now that we're part owners?
Thank you! I'd love to hear your analysis on NEP whose stocks saw panic selling this week.
Blackrock bought 12pst of MPW last month!!!👍😊 I have bout 8000 today.
Blackrock and vanguard bought a lot of shares!
Not a single word about the debs and rates. Its the biggest point going forward for this stock and company
fastgraphs.com/blog/update-medical-properties-trust-11-26-yield-the-risk-is-priced-in/
I sold puts to acquire MPW and have sold some calls against it since being assigned, not too worried about this recovering...
Than you Chuck! A true patient value investor! Please do a vide on $WBA and $WPC. Both got hammered very hard recently. I plan to hold both for a long time, but it is hard to be honest.
W. P. Carey management showed, that they cannot be trusted. Even worse, they must think that investors are stupid, by not releasing all the details of their deal. With such a management team, I do not want to be part of that company any longer...
@@Mondknall Thanks for the comment! Fair point and this echoes a lot of comments on Seekingalpha. I have about 100 shares and was thinking to sell the spinoff and buy a bit of $WPC at the current price. I own WPC shares primarily for income. But at current interest rate level, all REITs face essentially the same dilemma, even very high quality REITs such as $O, $ESS and $AMT. I do not own too much REITs, but one outlier is $IRM which performed remarkably well.
@@Mondknall What didn`t they release?
@@laciepyu255 They did not release specifics on their future dividend policy, just vague ranges. Same for how the asset deal of selling and transferring the office properties came to fruition. On top of that they announced this just a week after they had declared (and raised) the dividend. All of that are red flags by itself. You can add on top of that that Realty Income already got rid of its office properties 2 years ago. That excluded Orion office Reit is down 80% today. That is what WP Carey will get today at the worst market sentiment for office reits. Much much less of what they would have gotten a few years ago. That again shows just how bad the management team is in this Reit. You can add several other stuff on top like throwing away your dividend track record just one year before they would have achieved dividend aristocrat status.
@@Mondknall What details are missing?
Thanks for update Chuck, I would like you to focus also in debt , not only earnings lines, in case of REIT's things like Debt To Gross Book Value , that looks bad for MPW, and it translates to painful times ahead for MPW with rising interest rates, but there has to be reason to go down so much, otherwise wouldn't go down. I also believe this is a opportunity of a decade.
fastgraphs.com/blog/update-medical-properties-trust-11-26-yield-the-risk-is-priced-in/
I always appreciate your content, but what about:
- interest rates
- debt
- very poor diversification among tenants, with biggest tenant in financial difficulty
- management not being transparent to shareholders and therefore not trustworthy
- cashflow statement -> even after dividend cut, their cashflows don't cover the dividends
- the (A)FFO growth is mostly fabricated by share dilution/debt, interest rates popped this bubble and it's still bleeding
- management made nice easy money the past period. Bubble pops, now (A)FFO goes to debt holders to avoid bankruptcy, not to shareholders (dividends)
- junk grade credit rating
Just a junk grade is ridiculous with there properties, they have a 0.37-0.45 p/b
I think you're overthinking it. There's is obviously riskier but that is why the potential reward is so high. By the way, I don't believe there is never a bubble in MPW . As I pointed out in the video it was occasionally overvalued but never in a bubble. Instead, it ± traded at normal or reasonable valuations. Regards, Chuck
Without a doubt, one of the best videos of the week on dividend youtube channels👏👏👏
Thanks Chuck. I have this stock also and am down by a lot. Your analysis is always top notch and reassuring.
I sold this one a while back and put it in SCHD. Never had a big position because of the credit rating. It's hard for me to buy a stock that has cut their dividend as probabilistically those companies don't tend to do good long term. But might be worth a look again as the recession plays out.
The update was great Chuck. Thank you.
... and here we are again. Not interested in rehashing logic, but trying to learn from the experience. Seemed like MPW made since to me initially and after this video and my analysis, seemed like maybe good candidate to buy on dips. Since I had as much in as I was comfortable already, took the hold as my reinvestment. Later when dropped from about 5 at time of this video, dropped to 4.20 and I figured what I might be willing to "invest?", cut it in half and bought a little more at 4.20. Kicked myself for not doing more when climbed back above 5. .... then today, down 30 percent to 3.50 when news came out MPW loaned more money to a client to pay the rent.
Sometimes seemingly value stocks continue to go down. In this case pacing buys over months didn't seem to really help. Wonder in hind sight, what should have been a red flag for me other than the stock was going down?
I've learned my lesson to not ignore shorts. They might artificially pull down prices but if a company is as shorted as heavily as MPW more bad news will kill the value of a company.
Enough other stocks to choose from that are a lot less risky. I could have spend all on $O as well. Would have been a much better REIT play.
Definitely don't understand this stock. Declared a loss, downgraded ratings and went up again today 7% to 5.98.
Thanks for your review. Wondering how high-interests are going to affect their bottom line?
Just trying to be helpful:
Another great undervalued REIT (Biotech) is ARE (Alexandria Real Estate)
P/FFO 11.4, best since 2008.
Thanks Chuck I’m taking advantage of the dip and have bought more shares.
Can we get an MPW update?
Tanking and really on sale now. Value matters, but price matters more.
I'm still a long term holder continue to DRIP into the stock.I also sell otm options and buy more shares.Thanks for the video.Hapoy investing/stacking.
Proof that youtube gurus are best financial advisors. Not.
Hi Chuck . Wondering if you could revisit UGI. Seems very oversold and now offering almost a 7% divi for a dividend champion for 36 years and Fastgraphs future potential looks great.
Thanks Chuck, interesting view. I’m holding my position too. We’ll see…. What do you think about FMC ( undervalued with FG charts) and RTX ( fair valued with FG charts)
FMC is in a similar situation because there primary pesticide is coming off patent, earnings are expected to drop 15 to 20% but the stock price just as with MPW has significantly overreacted. The big difference here is analysts expect the stock to recover because in contrast MPW this is a growth stock. I think it's one the watch and recognize that you are very unlikely to the perfect bottom. Nevertheless I do think it is a long-term buy at current levels. Regards, Chuck
A $0.15/share dividend will be issued for (I assume) the first quarter.
MPW sold a 75% interest in Utah hospitals for $886 million.
The press release also mentions that "Simultaneous with the closing of this sale transaction, the Venture placed new non-recourse secured financing, providing $190 million of additional cash to MPT based on its share of the proceeds and further confirming underwritten asset values," and "Brings Total Liquidity Transactions Year-to-Date to $1.6 Billion, or 80% of MPT’s Initial FY 2024 Target"
Earlier this week MPW sold several hospitals to Prime for $350 million ($250 immediately with $100 million more due later)
HOLD the LINE Chuck and get the shorties squeezed out NOW!
Since it's a REIT, don't they have to pay out 90% of profit as dividend? So how do they cut the dividend? By paying off debt to lower their current profits?
You have to pay dividends based on net income, not on AFFO which is the real income of the REIT
@@DiogoRodrigues1995thought it was 90% of taxable income ?
REITs are required to pay 90% of their distributable income. But that number is calculated after cash flow is used for other purposes.
Thank you!! I was wanting this update
Been waiting on you to update chuck. Thanks and I have been buying.
I did dump 500 of my shares when it went back over 7$, bought back the 500 shares from 6$-5$. Only position other than intel I have attempted this on. My guess worked out.
I hold MPW, but there is something really rotten going on. With over a 31% short and individual investors hold about 17% of the total stock, the shorts are getting their stocks from institutional investors. I´m not sure what kind of institution would loan out their stocks to be shorted like this. Hopefully with positive earning the shorts will have to cover and we could see a huge upside with the amount of stock that is currently being shorted.
If they had to sell all their buildings, especially the off-shore ones, would they be able to cover their debt? Things have changed for the worse in commercial RE, and you could argue, it's hospitals, it's different...yeah maybe....
great stuff. How about GIS and HSY ? Getting in the buy zones
You are recommending this stock since a year when it was at 13 dollar all the way down over and over again and suddenly your average buying price is 6 dollar? sounds odd...
You also said you don´t think they will cut their dividend...
I like your analyses but is it so hard to admit that you were wrong here?
its not about being right or wrong. i didn't think they should have cut the dividend, but they did. From there the objective is to adapt and adjust. But the most important point is we wont really know until a market cycle passes. I believe and continue to believe that this business is worth more than the market is valuing it. I am not alone in that view as I showed in this update. regards Chuck
Thanks, Chuck! I’m also holding.
Truly appreciate this update Sir.
Limit the exposure to risk, I am glad I hedged with puts 😅
I’m still holding based on fundamentals. My cost basis is closer to 9$. How about a go back review of a company you highlighted a few months ago where the fundamentals have deteriorated. I speak of Advance Auto Parts. Is it a sell now?
Based on fundamentals recovering I would consider it a buy.
I'm adding if they drop it more. Thanks Chuck for a well reasoned update on their business model and current fundies
Hey Chuck, one question: What do you think about Bitcoin?
Very useful information. I am betting that your analysis (which agrees with Joseph Houge, BTW) is correct and the market is wrong. But, I am not betting enough to really hurt me if I'm wrong - I never do that.
Excellant analysist of MPT. I bought it for the same reason. I have an unrelized loss of over half my original investment but like you, I believe hospitals are not going away. Recently I went to a clinic and hospital in Little Rock.Ark and had great difficulty finding a place to park. Hospitals are always that way. As long as there is great demand for their services any profit problems will be temporary and fixable. The CEO owns 18 million in MPW's stock so is incentivised to work through their current problem. They are selling off assets to reduce debt, and the sales reflect their assets are reslistically valued. I am reinvesting dividends at the lower market prices to dollar cost average a lower cost, yet reciveing dividends at $.15 per share. The only alternative at this point is to sell the stock and realize the loss.
Thanks for the update!
Would you drip shares or put the dividend payment into O? IMO, it's also a buy.
Lots of bag holders here
I believe the drop is in regards more to the pending lawsuits . Will have to see how those go before making a decision . If they lose stock will drop to the basement
I keep selling puts as it goes down. Reducing my cost basis also. And reinvesting dividends.
I'm buying more, cost basis is 9.48. appreciate the content.
"Nothing has changed" ....you heard what the man said!
I guess the saying from Peter Lynch is most appropriate for MPW - “The key organ for the stock market is not the brain, but the stomach,’’ easier said than done!
I agree Chuck and thanks for taking the trouble to review this.
holding and dripping shares
Egy újabb osztalékvágás következik? Nem jelentettek még osztalékot.
Could you please please please talk about the debt levels over time? This seems very important!
Fastgraphs is telling me that the current P/FFO is 3.25 ... but TEV is 3.11 times market cap. If I do the math, that means the TEV/FFO ratio is 8.0. Not terrible, certainly ... but how does it stack up to historical levels?
sorry, the TEV/FFO is 10.08 not 8.0
Good question!
This is why they have a BB below investment grade rating in contrast to Realty income that has an A- rating
my high buy on this is 13, my avg is 8.6. I think in 3 years it will be back on track to 13
What does your FASTgraphs tell you about Duke Energy? The Payout Ratio is 86% seems excessive
Fully valued and that's important for slow growth utility. Regarding the payout ratio, since utilities tend not to grow very fast they typically can only attract investors by offering high dividend payout ratios and normally higher yields than the average stock. Regards, Chuck
@@FASTgraphs I find the Custom Valuation Ratio incredibly useful.
I put today's P/E (15.96) and so easy to see that it touches the line but rarely goes lower. So if you want on this train, looks like now's your chance. And if it drops lower, that's a rare opportunity.
Tks Chuck
Chuck, I love your software and how it visually combines fundamentals and price. I personally don't use the software but I use a similar approach to investing on my channel.
Thank you
No comments on balance sheet (10b debts), sales of good assets for surviving. Rates still high, in 2025 they need to pay over 500mil annually just fot rates
fastgraphs.com/blog/update-medical-properties-trust-11-26-yield-the-risk-is-priced-in/
How do you comments the events that took after this video is made and a 30% fall in the price? Do you think it is a good stock to buy? What are the possibilities of bankruptcy? Have you changed your mind about the stock? I myself am buying this now seeing it as highly over sold.
th-cam.com/video/cEaqdggwJhk/w-d-xo.html
Thank you for the update!
Excellent video.
I'm smiling because I knew you'd be a good sport with the peanut gallery.
They don't get that in value investing, if it's a good investment at $10, it's even better at $5, if the underlying business proposition is holding.
All they need to know is that you added to your position. So they can learn from your words and your actions.
I'd love to hear your thoughts on BKH (Black Hills Corp). P/E 13.4, best in 9 years.
Thank you. Keep them coming.
I'd pay money to hear you talk in your sleep.
🙂
Well another point to consider, hospitals take up large areas and are built strategically to be near growing or large populations. Even if the current owner is doing poorly, a competitor can't quickly build a hospital next-door to compete or take marketshare.. in even the worst case scenario I'd think the competitor would do best have to buy the already zoned hospital and just refurbish and re-organize it whether adding additional buildings etc.
Thanks Chuck, it is interesting that you did not mention a word, why the MPW is valued as it is and you did not touch a high debt maturities in coming years. Thast why there is such a storng short interest, because company has not so much money to pay their debt, revolving sources are also mostly used, so their only option is to sell the assets to cover at least some debts in 2024/2025. Why you did not mention this?
Because he is biased. He know this but his community should not know it, his service is just about income numbers
fastgraphs.com/blog/update-medical-properties-trust-11-26-yield-the-risk-is-priced-in/
@@FASTgraphs Thanks..you wanna compare video from 29.9. (which should be up to date) with half a year old blog post? Since 1.3.23 a lot of things changes, stock price decline much more than 50% since then. And based on your comment MPW for sure does not have 892$ mill. on their balance sheet now.
This is also a joke:
"Based on the best available information and comments from the management, we would expect the dividend from MPW to be safe for at least 2023"
@@mielvo if I were you I would not buy the stock
Thanks Chuck, seems still a high div? I hold some but sold about half my position since my dca cost basis being closer to 10.If you are correct seems maybe worth buying now.
Do you still see it as the same chuck'? Or has something changes? Something new pup'd up?
Great video Chuck!