People have already said stuff about needing to be the proper level for Sheer Cold, so I'll just throw in one other thing: you can't Sheer Cold Aggron, even if you want to, since it has Sturdy. It's actually useful on something before Gen 5, after all!
40:41 Small but critical reminder: in Gen 3, OHKO moves like Sheer Cold cannot KO a pokemon of a higher level than your pokemon. So, if you are below level 78 when you get to the Metagross on the Steven fight you can't take it out with Sheer Cold. Thus, you need to be level 78 by the time the Metagross comes out or you can't take it out.
if you're planning to do OHKO moves in the future, keep in mind from Gen 2 onward, the chance to hit formula is changed to be based on the User's level VS target's level, rather than the speed stat (the higher the level difference, the more likely the move is to hit BUT will always fails if the user is a lower level)
Consistency Chasm is pretty good name. Also when you were rambling on at the struggle and chasm of the difficulty, I would like to say that Jrose does use, if I remember right, a 40% Rule, where as long as the pokemon can in roughly 40% of the time its fine and okay to be a bit lucky. (those with deeper Jrose memory can tell me if I remember his % wrong)
I think the concept is that of local maximums, and I agree that level chasm is fun and intuitive phraseology. In AI, a local maximum is found when there is a solution found to the problem which may or may not be optimal, but it is a better solution than similar alternatives. So you could say there’s a local maximum at level 69, then another local maximum at level 80, with a level chasm in between 🎉
Really fun Steven strategy in the follow-up playthrough! You were talking in the outro about how many levels you could cut, but Sheer Cold only works on opponents less than or equal to your level, so you need to be at least Level 78 to use it on Metagross. Also, I call the concept you were talking about with the gap between consistency and lucking through "Planned inconsistency" if it's an iffy range or two in the middle of a run, but feel like that doesn't capture the concept of being brick walled by someone like Steven or Red.
Since you released a whole bunch of old stuff to members at once, this was actually buried in the middle, and I wouldn't have noticed this without it becoming a TH-cam recommended one, so I don't know how that will effect your TH-cam metrics for this one.
Scott after years of watching your channel and the journey that you've been on. I can only say that I'm so excited for more from you. You always provide top quality videos and analysis. I for one love that about your style of videos. All that to say please keep making more and I'll watch them all.
I also agree with Consistency Chasm. I was thinking those exact words when he first asked what the concept should be called, so when he said 'chasm' I knew it was meant to be.
Amazing video Scott! Glalie will always be one of my favourite Pokémon. I really loved the quick thinking and pivot to save time on the run with the sheer cold and attract strategy. One thing I do kind of want to point out is that while using this strategy you need to be at the same level as Steven's ace. Any lower level sheer cold will just fail. I feel like you're too used to OHKO moves in Gen 1 while talking about being able to complete the run at a lower level. Other than this the video is still amazing and I'm looking forward to what comes next!!!!
I'm sure others have mentioned this by now, but your Glalie in the second solo really wasn't underleveled at all; in fact, I'd say it was right around the level it needed to be for your strategy to work. Spoilers for the strategy below: Sheer Cold and other OHKO moves don't work the way they used to in Gen 1; their ability to function as well as accuracy are tied directly to the relation between your level and the opponent's level. The formula for accuracy is Accuracy = 30 + X, with X being the number of levels higher you are than your opponent. By default, if both Pokemon are the same level, then OHKO moves will have 30% accuracy. However, if your level is lower than that of the opponent, then the OHKO move will NOT WORK AT ALL. Thusly, it was vitally important that Glalie's level at least match that of Steven's Metagross, which means that Glalie cannot push its level lower. One suggestion I'd make for optimizing Glalie is getting a PP Max to save for Sheer Cold so that you have a bit more room for error, otherwise I feel like you did a good job using Glalie. I apologize for how wordy my comment was, but I wanted to drive my point home regarding OHKO moves. On that note, I'm interested to see how you handle other Pokemon that learn OHKO moves in the future.
Furthermore, if he enters with a Substitute, he has two chances to get Sheer Cold on the Metagross. That’s not a 30% chance to get beyond Metagross, that is a 51% to get beyond Metagross. It might be luck, but it is a coinflip where before there was no chance. I think that is why he feels Sheer Cold was not that lucky - the rest were solved with the other three moves, so it is now a 51% chance of victory assuming he comes in with a Substitute. They are even higher if the case where he does not have a Substitute are factored in - that chance shoots up to 81%. That is a percentage most speedrunner wcould gamble with most of the time.
The man is turning into a literary master, not just a pokemon master. Not only does he make use of Chekov’s gun, he extensively sets up the eventual firing of said gun 😂
My best answer for the metaphor you're trying to think of is that it sounds like a thermocline to me. a thermocline refers to a temperature layer deep in large bodies of water. It's noted by a gradual drop in temperature for a stretch, then an immediate sharp drop in temperature once you hit the thermocline's invisible boundary. As a metaphor, it would mean that, as you "dive deeper," you may gain some small improved odds, until you hit the thermocline, which would be hitting whatever specific benchmark that turns the fight from needing an excess of RNG into a consistent fight. People having been using the "Trust Thermocline," as a metaphor and business term for a handful of years now, so I think a "Luck Thermocline" to describe this phenomena wouldn't be crazy.
41:52 You can't sheer cold the Aggron because its sturdy. Sheer cold also won't kill if you're a lower level so you can't really save much time on levels since you need to be at least 78 for Metagross.
@ScottsThoughtsPokemon I like the strat on Steven and reminded me of the time I beat Steven at level 73 with a goldeen YES HORN DRILL was used Unfortunately phoebe was the problem because I had issues damaging the ghost
I always liked Glalie as a kid but I didn't know where to find Snorunt for the longest time and when i accidentally ran into Shoal cave I was like nahh its too late. I'm glad it did well enough though, although I still think it should be Ice/Dark. Its been said enough so i won't add to it but I think you actually optimized Glalie nearly perfectly not even realizing you did. Good level and pretty good time overall, but most importantly a high enough level for the strategy to actually work.
Hey Scott, the phrase you're looking for about the void for the steven battle, that is called "Ike-ing" your way through a fight, named after IkeTheKiller, who loves doing fights at low levels, with inconsistent strats like ancient power, and get wins within 5 tries or less
I think the phrase "consistency ditch" rolls off the tongue and is reasonably descriptive. As in "Glalie emerges from the a wide consistency ditch against Steven Stone at level 79 through use of Sheer cold starts..." "Unfortunately Geodude needs to cross a wide consistency ditch against Chuck because it needs to either one-hit Poliwrath or rely on such-and-such". You can talk about a consistency ditch as being narrow or wide (i.e. a few of levels between inconsistent and consistent or a lot of levels) and shallow or deep (i.e. a bit of extra luck needed to get by the fight without crossing the ditch versus a lot of luck needed).
I believe that schism could perfectly encapsulate what you are trying to convey. One side calls for luck, and the other, consistency, with no room in between. "a split or division between strongly opposed sections or parties, caused by differences in opinion or belief." -Oxford Languages
That you're talking about are statistical probabilities. The lowest level you could reasonable, the optimal level you should win, and the point at which you've overleveled would almost perfectly fit on a left skewed bell curve. If you wanted to plot this, you definitely could. Essentially you would have to run a calculation to find at what point (level, strategy, luck) you would have at least a 15% change of winning then what you would probably want would be to find the point at which you would have an 85% chance of winning, and then the point where you would win 95% or the time. Those would be the Statistically Significant points. Then you would have to consider how much time investment it would take (leveling, getting tm's or tutor moves, held items). Basically what your looking for are confidence intervals. It would kinda look like the graph pharmaceutical companies would use to determine optimal drug dosage per weight or other similar graphs. Other terms that would be relevant are "point of diminishing returns" when you've won't save time with more effort, "progression plateau" where your efforts stop being effective until a point where they sky rocket again, or "improbable valley" which would be for like a point where with more effort you get worse (i.e. a point where you can consistently 3 shot but if you go over a damage rounding threshold it puts the enemy into healing range with the second hit).
The difference between 'beat by luck' and 'beat by consistency' can be called the 'Unlucky Valley' after the uncanny valley. Basically, at the beginning, you might beat him if you are lucky, but those extra levels don't help, and are just wasted grind until you hit the consistency plateau.
glalie still counts to one of my all-time favorite pokemon i still love the design so much even though it is only maybe viable as a spiker in lower tiers it was in my first hall of fame team in ruby back then and i chose it for every playthrough going forward
Good job, Scott! I thought Glalie would have been doomed to a high time. That being said, yeah, you are coming up to a point where you have to choose between Pokémon being fast or consistent if there is one wall. You are basically becoming a speedrunner out of the constraints of your nigh-impossible task. I would call this gap between luck and consistency a Gambling Chasm - the difference between relying on luck and relying on consistency. I take this after the gamblingcore memes since your really are hoping for luck-based effects and that’s no different than gambling. The other note is that, even given that, it was the Metagross that was the wall in hindsight. Given that it was the reason you had to be at Level 85, this luck strat is ironically more consistent. Yeah, it only is about 30% of the time Sheer Cold will hit, but given you have the mitigating factors of a Substitute for the Metagross and Attract for the Aggron later, it is far better than a 10% Freeze chance. Assuming you come in with a Substitute, not killing Metagross in two hits is just 49%, which while it is not consistent absolutely is still far better. You have a coinflip to try and defeat the Aggron and you have militated against all but the Metagross and the Aggron. That is why the luck-based strategy feels consistent - you forced an opportunity that is not low against a Metagross wall when you had mitigating strats to make what is otherwise a dangerous fights less so. The main thing now is that plenty of Pokemon may have to try for lucky strats now that you have dramatically proven it is possible.
In the field of space tech, there is an idea that you could launch a rocket now and reach a destination 100 years away, or wait a few decades until better rockets are made and get there both faster and sooner. This is called "technological readiness," so I propose "level Readiness" or "Challenge Readiness."
Level chasm works great, but in honor of coining the phrase with Glalie, maybe "snowball's chance" as a reference to "a snowball's chance in hell" meaning very slim odds which need to line up might work
Perhaps call the concept the _"Bridge of Consternation"._ With the question being, "Should I cross the Bridge?" Blow through potentially run-ruining time to level, or risk wasting an equal amount of time on luck? Since you described it as a "chasm" the concept of a "bridge" for crossing the chasm makes sense.
Yep. In an attempt to nerf Intimidate, the abilities Inner Focus, Oblivious, Own Tempo and Scrappy now render the user immune to its effects. Rattled now also activates when hit by Intimidate.
In regards to the whole Emerald series taking 8 years before considering backports... that's a good thing. It means you have more sustainable content for years to come. What I like about your channel (and I assume others as well), is the consistent content that I can count on for all of those eight years. The journey as opposed to the destination, essentially. To put it another way, do you REALLY want to finish Yellow? Do you really want to reach a point where you've done everything there is to do in that game? Or do you like the idea of being able to keep going back to it, time and again, with different challenges to get more joy out of it? That's how I see it. The longer you can keep this going, the better for everyone. Also, maybe call it the "plausibility chasm"?
My idea for the concept you were struggling with (That I don't actually think is particularly good, but I figure even if no one else likes it, the algorithm might): The Pillar of Possible Consistency. There is a point at which you can win using luck. Any amount of time or resources spent beyond that is you trying to climb the pillar. The higher the pillar, the more resources it needs. As any novice climber can tell you, standing at the bottom of a climb, you can very easily misjudge the distances involved in such a climb. If you get to the top, you have consistency, but the higher the pillar the more likely it is you could have just gone round it with luck
I'd say it could be called the "Inconsistency Abyss" anywhere from the start of it into the end is an Inconsistency Abyss, where you fall deeper into the void.
Hey Scott, the first term I thought of was a void OR perhaps maybe a wormhole is much more fitting to describe the time difference between lucking through Steven Stone at a low level for times sake or the consistent strategy of reaching the needed level warping from one end of the universe to the other rather than the chasm? Regardless, as always fantastic video. Your consistency in always improving each and every facet and aspect of your whole presentation as a package sets you at a tier all your own, S tier if you will. Just constantly moving the bar on yourself as you go. Been here since the beginning just have a problem with somehow finding myself needing a new phone as I'm gravity challenged or my phones are idk which is correct but they don't agree with meeting the ground at terminal velocity and who remembers passwords nowadays when checking that box des for me and new accounts must be made! Lmao still catch every video or stream whether it's during or after I don't miss a one, keep it up but never burn yourself out! Don't know what I'll have to look forward to on youtube if that happened!
In regards to the luck-skill level chasm: In chemistry, if you want to keep for example your pH steady you can use something called a buffer. If you add acids or bases to them the pH doesn't change much. So if we use that principle for a level range that doesn't change the winning chance much, we could call it the "(reliability) buffer zone". Then you can give the buffer zone soft and hard caps to describe notable changes in reliability. In a video it would sound something like this then: "After lvl 30 it enters a *buffer zone* with a soft cap at lvl 33 where it's chances rise slightly, since it can outspeed the trainers ace and a one at lvl 42, where it can reliable tank one earthquake. The hard cap is at lvl 45, where it just one shots everything. The question now is: Do I just use some rare candy now, to reach the first soft cap, or do I change my route so I can face the trainer later on with more experience?"
Regarding how much you need to train to take a fight from 'possible' to 'solved', I'd call it a 'Stat Deficit'. The pokemon has to lean on crits, secondary effects, and unlikely damage ranges to make up for a lack of raw stats. A larger Deficit requires a larger investment to 'pay it off'.
I pledge for the word "fissure" instead of "wasteland" or "chasm" to describe the major level discrepancy between relying on luck to win compared to a level of consistency - because Fissure is a 30% OHKO Move, so you have the inconsistency side, but you also have the rewarding consistent one-hit side to the word :P
The only thing I can think of to describe your wasteland. Is call it something like the hypnosis theory. That or play honor to hypno where you first realize how you rely on luck with the move in yellow.
Just fyi, whatever you did a few minutes ago regarding members only videos, each video you changed got put back at the top of my subscription feed. So now there's a huge chunk of your videos in a row in my subscription feed. Not a problem or anything, but I almost missed this video because of it, there could be a metric dip.
Sounds like you're just talking about some sort of consistency tipping point with your spiel around Steven. Glad you discussed it though, I imagine it's very hard to know where that range is during a run without resorting to checking damage ranges and the like, especially if you have the (un?)fortunate experience of lucking through an early fight and then finding it was a case of the stars aligning.
The second play was amazing. With luck using sheer cold against Steven and some otmization to lower glaile's time in mid game or against the league, It could get a time around 1:20
Fun fact: While Substitue makes you immune to status moves, Attract hits through. Love really is the strongest emotion known to (Poke)man. Have a beatiful day
Glalie's design always made me think it should have a second type. The black in the design points to Dark, the horns being shiny like polished metal points to Steel, and the Gengar-esque face would mean Ghost. In fact, Glalie looks more like a Ghost type than Froslass does. So weird.
Consistency Activation Energy: the amount of effort it requires to get over the threshold for consistency. Taken from the idea of chemical reactions, which have energy thresholds that must be met before proceeding. Catalysts--correlary being a unique strategy--can lower this energy requirement. Like luck, it's not impossible for certain chemical reactions to occur given environmental factors, just highly improbable.
Two things I've noticed about this run that could potentially help out. 1: Against Tate and Lisa in Run 1, you kept nearly killing their Pokemon with Ice Beam. Crunch was stronger than a Nevermeltice-boosted Ice Beam on the Rocks who weren't weak to it. It might have been better to use the Blackglasses in that fight. Might be worth remembering for the future. 2: You don't understand how Trainer Eyes/Match Call works, because in the end of the first attempted run, you said you "ran out of good trainers to grind on." You are playing Emerald. You are never, ever, at any point, in any way, at any section of the game past Norman (when these features become available), out of good trainers to grind on. Wally is in the Match Call/Trainer Eyes. All you have to do is enter/exit Victory Road a few times and walk over to him, and he will be ready to rebattle you. Similarly, you can do the exact same thing with pretty much every single route in the game, and they will eventually wind up with teams inbetween the 30s and 40s at the absolute lowest - and this includes the route west of Mauville with the two trainers with 6 Pokemon each, as well as a bunch of single trainers who end up with high EXP Pokemon. This is going to be extremely important in any run where you absolutely need to grind because it means optimal EXP grinding is actually pretty easy and relatively quick. (Don't feel bad that you don't understand this, RSE makes absolutely no attempt to instruct the player as to how this works. But it's actually generally faster than the VS Seeker.)
The term 'Range' in poker is somewhat similar to what you described, though I don't think it applies perfectly; it might also be too confusing since it overlaps with 'damage ranges'
Before watching: Glalie is not really great in competitive play, but frankly for these challanges it might be pretty good. 80 for all stats? That‘s nice! STAB PowderSnow to start, plus Bite? That‘s a pretty nice way to start too! Crunch and IceBeam come pretty early. And then Earthquake to top it off. Mixed attacker that works well with both ways of attacking… all of this looks pretty great! I think Flanerie will be an issue and the fact that it can‘t set up will be a HUGE problem against Steven Stone though. So, my guess: all around really fast pokemon for this challange with a handful of very tough road blocks. After watching: Man, I thought Steven might become an issue, but not like that! There really aren‘t any great options. I mean, Attract and SheerCold is a pretty funny idea, but it‘s obviously very inconsistent. Aside from Steven it looks really easy! The Fire Gym I definitively thought would be more tricky… Fun video!
*SPOILERS* Its interesting you have this problem regarding the "Chasm" of luck vs consistency. Because in my work we have the term "Effektivitetskostnad" which essentially describes your problem. Although that's a hard one to say but it means "efficiency cost" in English and its come about because when we have certain analytical project goals to meet we always explain this term as a way of saying that it can be done quickly but may not be done accurately (many resets) or it can be completed slowly and done very accurately (no resets). Its like the more efficient you are on time save the more costly the consistency! For the video however I am amazed at the time save you got for Glalie! So much so you could have completed a pokemon yellow run with Victrebell also and still saved time haha!
I’m not 100% certain on this but I believe you can manipulate Norman’s ai with Pokémon that have both physical and special moves. By knocking out the spinda with headbutt I believe there’s a very high chance that slaking would use counter turn 1 instead of yawn. Could prove useful in the future for better consistency at Norman.
42:12 You need to integrate OHKO moves into your router correctly, to just tell you when it'll be impossible to use them since in this case it would've shown you it would be impossible at that level or vs sturdy mons (like others have pointed out). You probably avoided it since you dismissed OHKO moves out of hand in the past, but the more you use these types of moves the more relevant your router not handling OHKO moves correctly becomes.
I know chasm sounds better in terms of this run, but the gap isn't always that big. That is why I would say gap instead. A two level gap wouldn't be a chasm. Also, I would say you would be making the choice to bridge the gap if going for the consistent level.
Consistency chasm if you want to stick with chasm. I think I prefer consistency gap or threshold though, but you might be over the damage rounding threshold 😅 Example: the consistency threshold for Glalie is around 85, so I might as well luck it out at 60. Also, X% luck threshold - the level required to have at least a X% chance to win. For a consistent strategy, you look for the 90-95% luck threshold for big fights. 50% luck threshold is probably acceptable for gym leaders that have quick resets. You could even one day calculate the exact percentage of success through numbers once you have factors like probability of certain results and of the opponent using each individual move or item. That will allow for elite levels of optimisation
For example, using the Sheer Cold strat, it is actually an 81% to live past Metagross - 51% with substitute, 30% without. Those are odds that are decent to gamble with.
The Sheer Cold strat is great. But if you aren't at least level 78 it will never work on the Metagross. OH-KO moves work by level starting in gen 2.
People have already said stuff about needing to be the proper level for Sheer Cold, so I'll just throw in one other thing: you can't Sheer Cold Aggron, even if you want to, since it has Sturdy. It's actually useful on something before Gen 5, after all!
The use case is, basically, thwarting Scott's challenge.
Wait, Glalie can learn earthquake??!!
26:56 oh my gosh the absolutely DISRESPECTFUL triple protect swag by this wild Lairon had me crying 😂
I never noticed that 😂
FLAGRANT DISRESPECT
40:41 Small but critical reminder: in Gen 3, OHKO moves like Sheer Cold cannot KO a pokemon of a higher level than your pokemon. So, if you are below level 78 when you get to the Metagross on the Steven fight you can't take it out with Sheer Cold. Thus, you need to be level 78 by the time the Metagross comes out or you can't take it out.
if you're planning to do OHKO moves in the future, keep in mind from Gen 2 onward, the chance to hit formula is changed to be based on the User's level VS target's level, rather than the speed stat (the higher the level difference, the more likely the move is to hit BUT will always fails if the user is a lower level)
Consistency Chasm is pretty good name.
Also when you were rambling on at the struggle and chasm of the difficulty, I would like to say that Jrose does use, if I remember right, a 40% Rule, where as long as the pokemon can in roughly 40% of the time its fine and okay to be a bit lucky. (those with deeper Jrose memory can tell me if I remember his % wrong)
Saturation point
Seconded, Scott, take note ❤
I mean since it his channel. I was going to call it hypnosis theory. Since in yellow he try luck through fights almost to much with hypno.
Glalie is terrifying on multiple levels. Terrifyingly intimating, terrifyingly mediocre, and its terrifying how much I adore this thing.
"the level chasm" sounds badass, go with that
I was gonna suggest breakpoints, but true
I think the concept is that of local maximums, and I agree that level chasm is fun and intuitive phraseology. In AI, a local maximum is found when there is a solution found to the problem which may or may not be optimal, but it is a better solution than similar alternatives.
So you could say there’s a local maximum at level 69, then another local maximum at level 80, with a level chasm in between 🎉
Really fun Steven strategy in the follow-up playthrough!
You were talking in the outro about how many levels you could cut, but Sheer Cold only works on opponents less than or equal to your level, so you need to be at least Level 78 to use it on Metagross. Also, I call the concept you were talking about with the gap between consistency and lucking through "Planned inconsistency" if it's an iffy range or two in the middle of a run, but feel like that doesn't capture the concept of being brick walled by someone like Steven or Red.
Was going to mention this lol
Since you released a whole bunch of old stuff to members at once, this was actually buried in the middle, and I wouldn't have noticed this without it becoming a TH-cam recommended one, so I don't know how that will effect your TH-cam metrics for this one.
Well, youtube recommended it, so it must be working 😅
Scott after years of watching your channel and the journey that you've been on. I can only say that I'm so excited for more from you. You always provide top quality videos and analysis. I for one love that about your style of videos. All that to say please keep making more and I'll watch them all.
"Consistency chasm" seems like a good term for the concept you described.
also steven holding glalie like a basketball was a treat.
I also agree with Consistency Chasm. I was thinking those exact words when he first asked what the concept should be called, so when he said 'chasm' I knew it was meant to be.
Amazing video Scott! Glalie will always be one of my favourite Pokémon. I really loved the quick thinking and pivot to save time on the run with the sheer cold and attract strategy. One thing I do kind of want to point out is that while using this strategy you need to be at the same level as Steven's ace. Any lower level sheer cold will just fail. I feel like you're too used to OHKO moves in Gen 1 while talking about being able to complete the run at a lower level. Other than this the video is still amazing and I'm looking forward to what comes next!!!!
I'm sure others have mentioned this by now, but your Glalie in the second solo really wasn't underleveled at all; in fact, I'd say it was right around the level it needed to be for your strategy to work. Spoilers for the strategy below:
Sheer Cold and other OHKO moves don't work the way they used to in Gen 1; their ability to function as well as accuracy are tied directly to the relation between your level and the opponent's level. The formula for accuracy is Accuracy = 30 + X, with X being the number of levels higher you are than your opponent. By default, if both Pokemon are the same level, then OHKO moves will have 30% accuracy. However, if your level is lower than that of the opponent, then the OHKO move will NOT WORK AT ALL. Thusly, it was vitally important that Glalie's level at least match that of Steven's Metagross, which means that Glalie cannot push its level lower. One suggestion I'd make for optimizing Glalie is getting a PP Max to save for Sheer Cold so that you have a bit more room for error, otherwise I feel like you did a good job using Glalie. I apologize for how wordy my comment was, but I wanted to drive my point home regarding OHKO moves. On that note, I'm interested to see how you handle other Pokemon that learn OHKO moves in the future.
Furthermore, if he enters with a Substitute, he has two chances to get Sheer Cold on the Metagross. That’s not a 30% chance to get beyond Metagross, that is a 51% to get beyond Metagross. It might be luck, but it is a coinflip where before there was no chance. I think that is why he feels Sheer Cold was not that lucky - the rest were solved with the other three moves, so it is now a 51% chance of victory assuming he comes in with a Substitute. They are even higher if the case where he does not have a Substitute are factored in - that chance shoots up to 81%. That is a percentage most speedrunner wcould gamble with most of the time.
I love when the footage is just you stumbling to pick up an item or walk through a door
From Bruno to B Tier is a crazy improvement!
That first run was rough. But the strat for the second. Sheer cold for the win! I made it to 43:34. And no Scott, YOU'RE INCREDIBLE!
The man is turning into a literary master, not just a pokemon master. Not only does he make use of Chekov’s gun, he extensively sets up the eventual firing of said gun 😂
Agreed 💯
My best answer for the metaphor you're trying to think of is that it sounds like a thermocline to me. a thermocline refers to a temperature layer deep in large bodies of water. It's noted by a gradual drop in temperature for a stretch, then an immediate sharp drop in temperature once you hit the thermocline's invisible boundary. As a metaphor, it would mean that, as you "dive deeper," you may gain some small improved odds, until you hit the thermocline, which would be hitting whatever specific benchmark that turns the fight from needing an excess of RNG into a consistent fight. People having been using the "Trust Thermocline," as a metaphor and business term for a handful of years now, so I think a "Luck Thermocline" to describe this phenomena wouldn't be crazy.
In the immortal words of Imported Cheese, "FORTY-TWO LEVELS. For THIS."
41:52 You can't sheer cold the Aggron because its sturdy. Sheer cold also won't kill if you're a lower level so you can't really save much time on levels since you need to be at least 78 for Metagross.
Omg the one time gen3 sturdy is actually helpful.
@ScottsThoughtsPokemon I like the strat on Steven and reminded me of the time I beat Steven at level 73 with a goldeen
YES HORN DRILL was used
Unfortunately phoebe was the problem because I had issues damaging the ghost
I always liked Glalie as a kid but I didn't know where to find Snorunt for the longest time and when i accidentally ran into Shoal cave I was like nahh its too late. I'm glad it did well enough though, although I still think it should be Ice/Dark.
Its been said enough so i won't add to it but I think you actually optimized Glalie nearly perfectly not even realizing you did. Good level and pretty good time overall, but most importantly a high enough level for the strategy to actually work.
Hey Scott, the phrase you're looking for about the void for the steven battle, that is called "Ike-ing" your way through a fight, named after IkeTheKiller, who loves doing fights at low levels, with inconsistent strats like ancient power, and get wins within 5 tries or less
I think the phrase "consistency ditch" rolls off the tongue and is reasonably descriptive. As in "Glalie emerges from the a wide consistency ditch against Steven Stone at level 79 through use of Sheer cold starts..." "Unfortunately Geodude needs to cross a wide consistency ditch against Chuck because it needs to either one-hit Poliwrath or rely on such-and-such".
You can talk about a consistency ditch as being narrow or wide (i.e. a few of levels between inconsistent and consistent or a lot of levels) and shallow or deep (i.e. a bit of extra luck needed to get by the fight without crossing the ditch versus a lot of luck needed).
I believe that schism could perfectly encapsulate what you are trying to convey. One side calls for luck, and the other, consistency, with no room in between. "a split or division between strongly opposed sections or parties, caused by differences in opinion or belief." -Oxford Languages
That you're talking about are statistical probabilities. The lowest level you could reasonable, the optimal level you should win, and the point at which you've overleveled would almost perfectly fit on a left skewed bell curve. If you wanted to plot this, you definitely could. Essentially you would have to run a calculation to find at what point (level, strategy, luck) you would have at least a 15% change of winning then what you would probably want would be to find the point at which you would have an 85% chance of winning, and then the point where you would win 95% or the time. Those would be the Statistically Significant points. Then you would have to consider how much time investment it would take (leveling, getting tm's or tutor moves, held items). Basically what your looking for are confidence intervals. It would kinda look like the graph pharmaceutical companies would use to determine optimal drug dosage per weight or other similar graphs. Other terms that would be relevant are "point of diminishing returns" when you've won't save time with more effort, "progression plateau" where your efforts stop being effective until a point where they sky rocket again, or "improbable valley" which would be for like a point where with more effort you get worse (i.e. a point where you can consistently 3 shot but if you go over a damage rounding threshold it puts the enemy into healing range with the second hit).
1:36 the change to inner focus is Gen 8, not Gen 7 fyi
The difference between 'beat by luck' and 'beat by consistency' can be called the 'Unlucky Valley' after the uncanny valley. Basically, at the beginning, you might beat him if you are lucky, but those extra levels don't help, and are just wasted grind until you hit the consistency plateau.
That 2nd playthrough with glalie was nuts, amazing solutions
glalie still counts to one of my all-time favorite pokemon
i still love the design so much even though it is only maybe viable as a spiker in lower tiers
it was in my first hall of fame team in ruby back then and i chose it for every playthrough going forward
The Gulf of Preferential Probability
Good job, Scott! I thought Glalie would have been doomed to a high time.
That being said, yeah, you are coming up to a point where you have to choose between Pokémon being fast or consistent if there is one wall. You are basically becoming a speedrunner out of the constraints of your nigh-impossible task.
I would call this gap between luck and consistency a Gambling Chasm - the difference between relying on luck and relying on consistency. I take this after the gamblingcore memes since your really are hoping for luck-based effects and that’s no different than gambling. The other note is that, even given that, it was the Metagross that was the wall in hindsight. Given that it was the reason you had to be at Level 85, this luck strat is ironically more consistent. Yeah, it only is about 30% of the time Sheer Cold will hit, but given you have the mitigating factors of a Substitute for the Metagross and Attract for the Aggron later, it is far better than a 10% Freeze chance. Assuming you come in with a Substitute, not killing Metagross in two hits is just 49%, which while it is not consistent absolutely is still far better. You have a coinflip to try and defeat the Aggron and you have militated against all but the Metagross and the Aggron. That is why the luck-based strategy feels consistent - you forced an opportunity that is not low against a Metagross wall when you had mitigating strats to make what is otherwise a dangerous fights less so. The main thing now is that plenty of Pokemon may have to try for lucky strats now that you have dramatically proven it is possible.
I love the lil switches in music you used in this one
In the field of space tech, there is an idea that you could launch a rocket now and reach a destination 100 years away, or wait a few decades until better rockets are made and get there both faster and sooner. This is called "technological readiness," so I propose "level Readiness" or "Challenge Readiness."
really enjoyed this, kept me on the edge :)
Fire ass video and final strategy scott 🔥🔥🔥
17:08 that was terrible but great at the same time 😂 😂
Level chasm works great, but in honor of coining the phrase with Glalie, maybe "snowball's chance" as a reference to "a snowball's chance in hell" meaning very slim odds which need to line up might work
Perhaps call the concept the _"Bridge of Consternation"._ With the question being, "Should I cross the Bridge?" Blow through potentially run-ruining time to level, or risk wasting an equal amount of time on luck? Since you described it as a "chasm" the concept of a "bridge" for crossing the chasm makes sense.
Today I learned Inner Focus blocks Intimidate Gen 8 and 9. I never knew that before today, interesting.
Yep. In an attempt to nerf Intimidate, the abilities Inner Focus, Oblivious, Own Tempo and Scrappy now render the user immune to its effects. Rattled now also activates when hit by Intimidate.
I needed this today Scott, thanks
Keep up the fun content, Scott. I enjoy your videos and attitude. Just don't over work yourself. 😅
In regards to the whole Emerald series taking 8 years before considering backports... that's a good thing. It means you have more sustainable content for years to come. What I like about your channel (and I assume others as well), is the consistent content that I can count on for all of those eight years. The journey as opposed to the destination, essentially.
To put it another way, do you REALLY want to finish Yellow? Do you really want to reach a point where you've done everything there is to do in that game? Or do you like the idea of being able to keep going back to it, time and again, with different challenges to get more joy out of it? That's how I see it. The longer you can keep this going, the better for everyone.
Also, maybe call it the "plausibility chasm"?
My idea for the concept you were struggling with (That I don't actually think is particularly good, but I figure even if no one else likes it, the algorithm might): The Pillar of Possible Consistency.
There is a point at which you can win using luck. Any amount of time or resources spent beyond that is you trying to climb the pillar. The higher the pillar, the more resources it needs. As any novice climber can tell you, standing at the bottom of a climb, you can very easily misjudge the distances involved in such a climb. If you get to the top, you have consistency, but the higher the pillar the more likely it is you could have just gone round it with luck
A common term in the Fire Emblem community that feels similar to your chasm is a "Pitfall", where you invest in ways that are not quite optimal.
32:39 why is steven holding glalie like that so funny lol
So proud of you not skipping sheer cold
28:00 I think the word you are looking for is “benchmark”. In that case, a certain level is needed to meet a “consistency benchmark”
I'd say it could be called the "Inconsistency Abyss" anywhere from the start of it into the end is an Inconsistency Abyss, where you fall deeper into the void.
Hey Scott, the first term I thought of was a void OR perhaps maybe a wormhole is much more fitting to describe the time difference between lucking through Steven Stone at a low level for times sake or the consistent strategy of reaching the needed level warping from one end of the universe to the other rather than the chasm? Regardless, as always fantastic video. Your consistency in always improving each and every facet and aspect of your whole presentation as a package sets you at a tier all your own, S tier if you will. Just constantly moving the bar on yourself as you go. Been here since the beginning just have a problem with somehow finding myself needing a new phone as I'm gravity challenged or my phones are idk which is correct but they don't agree with meeting the ground at terminal velocity and who remembers passwords nowadays when checking that box des for me and new accounts must be made! Lmao still catch every video or stream whether it's during or after I don't miss a one, keep it up but never burn yourself out! Don't know what I'll have to look forward to on youtube if that happened!
In regards to the luck-skill level chasm:
In chemistry, if you want to keep for example your pH steady you can use something called a buffer. If you add acids or bases to them the pH doesn't change much.
So if we use that principle for a level range that doesn't change the winning chance much, we could call it the "(reliability) buffer zone".
Then you can give the buffer zone soft and hard caps to describe notable changes in reliability.
In a video it would sound something like this then:
"After lvl 30 it enters a *buffer zone* with a soft cap at lvl 33 where it's chances rise slightly, since it can outspeed the trainers ace and a one at lvl 42, where it can reliable tank one earthquake. The hard cap is at lvl 45, where it just one shots everything.
The question now is: Do I just use some rare candy now, to reach the first soft cap, or do I change my route so I can face the trainer later on with more experience?"
Wow. The time difference between runs 1 and 2 is STARK. What an improvement!
18:19 LOL Gen 1 music instead of Gen 3. It’s like we traveled back in time!
40:01 And AGAIN with the “hall of fame” rundown.
Jontron: Alright I have to admit…this time I’ve been caught off guard.
KEEP IT, SCOTT!
Regarding how much you need to train to take a fight from 'possible' to 'solved', I'd call it a 'Stat Deficit'. The pokemon has to lean on crits, secondary effects, and unlikely damage ranges to make up for a lack of raw stats. A larger Deficit requires a larger investment to 'pay it off'.
I pledge for the word "fissure" instead of "wasteland" or "chasm" to describe the major level discrepancy between relying on luck to win compared to a level of consistency - because Fissure is a 30% OHKO Move, so you have the inconsistency side, but you also have the rewarding consistent one-hit side to the word :P
For future runs, you can get black glasses to boost dark moves, it could be really helpful for Tate and Liza
The only thing I can think of to describe your wasteland. Is call it something like the hypnosis theory. That or play honor to hypno where you first realize how you rely on luck with the move in yellow.
I love that you put RBY music here
My heart skipped a beat when Wallace’s Ludicolo double teamed
Just fyi, whatever you did a few minutes ago regarding members only videos, each video you changed got put back at the top of my subscription feed. So now there's a huge chunk of your videos in a row in my subscription feed. Not a problem or anything, but I almost missed this video because of it, there could be a metric dip.
I just counted and it's 55 videos in a row.
I would would like to propose the term "consistency canyon"
I love Glalie, I just love his design of being just a floating frozen head
I love its design of literally being Getter Robo's head but white and black
Sounds like you're just talking about some sort of consistency tipping point with your spiel around Steven.
Glad you discussed it though, I imagine it's very hard to know where that range is during a run without resorting to checking damage ranges and the like, especially if you have the (un?)fortunate experience of lucking through an early fight and then finding it was a case of the stars aligning.
The second play was amazing. With luck using sheer cold against Steven and some otmization to lower glaile's time in mid game or against the league, It could get a time around 1:20
Ah yes, the trifecta of mid pokemon from gen 3:
Castform, Glalie, and Spidna.
I suggest calling it "Level Gap" Scott.
6:47 - it didn't win the speed tie, you were paralyzed 😅
I like the idea of schrödinger level. Because you never know until you take a look at it 😂
We need to call the wasteland between luck and consistency the Scott hole. You know like when a scientist named a hole after their surname
Fun fact: While Substitue makes you immune to status moves, Attract hits through. Love really is the strongest emotion known to (Poke)man. Have a beatiful day
You finally beat Ike the killer at a run! Nice
Glalie is my favorite Pokémon and I also love it design
Glalie's design always made me think it should have a second type. The black in the design points to Dark, the horns being shiny like polished metal points to Steel, and the Gengar-esque face would mean Ghost. In fact, Glalie looks more like a Ghost type than Froslass does. So weird.
Luck-Level Gap or Level-Luck Gap seems appropriate.
Also, one-hit KO moves don't work like they did in gen 1, Scott.
Consistency Activation Energy: the amount of effort it requires to get over the threshold for consistency.
Taken from the idea of chemical reactions, which have energy thresholds that must be met before proceeding. Catalysts--correlary being a unique strategy--can lower this energy requirement. Like luck, it's not impossible for certain chemical reactions to occur given environmental factors, just highly improbable.
"Consistency differential" sounds good
As it is a time differential
Two things I've noticed about this run that could potentially help out.
1: Against Tate and Lisa in Run 1, you kept nearly killing their Pokemon with Ice Beam. Crunch was stronger than a Nevermeltice-boosted Ice Beam on the Rocks who weren't weak to it. It might have been better to use the Blackglasses in that fight. Might be worth remembering for the future.
2: You don't understand how Trainer Eyes/Match Call works, because in the end of the first attempted run, you said you "ran out of good trainers to grind on." You are playing Emerald. You are never, ever, at any point, in any way, at any section of the game past Norman (when these features become available), out of good trainers to grind on. Wally is in the Match Call/Trainer Eyes. All you have to do is enter/exit Victory Road a few times and walk over to him, and he will be ready to rebattle you. Similarly, you can do the exact same thing with pretty much every single route in the game, and they will eventually wind up with teams inbetween the 30s and 40s at the absolute lowest - and this includes the route west of Mauville with the two trainers with 6 Pokemon each, as well as a bunch of single trainers who end up with high EXP Pokemon. This is going to be extremely important in any run where you absolutely need to grind because it means optimal EXP grinding is actually pretty easy and relatively quick.
(Don't feel bad that you don't understand this, RSE makes absolutely no attempt to instruct the player as to how this works. But it's actually generally faster than the VS Seeker.)
The consistency chasm sounds fine
I love Glalie, but I have yet to try one on a team? Are all the people who call it trash correct?
The term 'Range' in poker is somewhat similar to what you described, though I don't think it applies perfectly; it might also be too confusing since it overlaps with 'damage ranges'
I would suggest that it be called the experience breakpoint. As it is the breakthrough level that you need for consistency.
Before watching:
Glalie is not really great in competitive play, but frankly for these challanges it might be pretty good. 80 for all stats? That‘s nice! STAB PowderSnow to start, plus Bite? That‘s a pretty nice way to start too! Crunch and IceBeam come pretty early. And then Earthquake to top it off. Mixed attacker that works well with both ways of attacking… all of this looks pretty great!
I think Flanerie will be an issue and the fact that it can‘t set up will be a HUGE problem against Steven Stone though. So, my guess: all around really fast pokemon for this challange with a handful of very tough road blocks.
After watching:
Man, I thought Steven might become an issue, but not like that! There really aren‘t any great options. I mean, Attract and SheerCold is a pretty funny idea, but it‘s obviously very inconsistent.
Aside from Steven it looks really easy! The Fire Gym I definitively thought would be more tricky…
Fun video!
*SPOILERS*
Its interesting you have this problem regarding the "Chasm" of luck vs consistency. Because in my work we have the term "Effektivitetskostnad" which essentially describes your problem. Although that's a hard one to say but it means "efficiency cost" in English and its come about because when we have certain analytical project goals to meet we always explain this term as a way of saying that it can be done quickly but may not be done accurately (many resets) or it can be completed slowly and done very accurately (no resets). Its like the more efficient you are on time save the more costly the consistency!
For the video however I am amazed at the time save you got for Glalie! So much so you could have completed a pokemon yellow run with Victrebell also and still saved time haha!
We could call it "The Steven Gorge" or "The Great Steven Canyon"
That concept you are asking for, I suggest acceptable level tolerance
One of my favorite Pokémon in Emerald !
40:54 Actually, YOU NEED level 78 for sheer cold to work. That move straight up always misses in case of being at a lower level than the opponent.
Brawly functionally only has 2 pokemon, though. Because his Meditite can only attack with focus punch, it's a free win so long as you keep hitting it.
I learned that inner focus prevents intimate in gen 7 onwards
I think that you could call it the Luck Conistency Gap or the other way around; so you could call it the CLG or LCG for short.
I’m not 100% certain on this but I believe you can manipulate Norman’s ai with Pokémon that have both physical and special moves. By knocking out the spinda with headbutt I believe there’s a very high chance that slaking would use counter turn 1 instead of yawn. Could prove useful in the future for better consistency at Norman.
Glalie in the anime is hilarious
The GLAAAAAAAAAAALIE... As Jrose would say 😂
YO!
Been watching your vids at work lol
42:12 You need to integrate OHKO moves into your router correctly, to just tell you when it'll be impossible to use them since in this case it would've shown you it would be impossible at that level or vs sturdy mons (like others have pointed out). You probably avoided it since you dismissed OHKO moves out of hand in the past, but the more you use these types of moves the more relevant your router not handling OHKO moves correctly becomes.
My absolute favorite Pokémon. Be nice to him
Name for the luck vs the consistent results you could call it the “crossing effect”
9:53 Linoone making a grand entrance.
Just slowly creeping across the screen lol
18:18 hey wait a minute what happened to the gen3 league music and youre using the gen1 gym theme
I know chasm sounds better in terms of this run, but the gap isn't always that big. That is why I would say gap instead. A two level gap wouldn't be a chasm. Also, I would say you would be making the choice to bridge the gap if going for the consistent level.
Consistency chasm if you want to stick with chasm. I think I prefer consistency gap or threshold though, but you might be over the damage rounding threshold 😅
Example: the consistency threshold for Glalie is around 85, so I might as well luck it out at 60.
Also, X% luck threshold - the level required to have at least a X% chance to win. For a consistent strategy, you look for the 90-95% luck threshold for big fights. 50% luck threshold is probably acceptable for gym leaders that have quick resets. You could even one day calculate the exact percentage of success through numbers once you have factors like probability of certain results and of the opponent using each individual move or item. That will allow for elite levels of optimisation
For example, using the Sheer Cold strat, it is actually an 81% to live past Metagross - 51% with substitute, 30% without. Those are odds that are decent to gamble with.
I'd suggest calling it the "Luck to Consistency Level Differential"