The Housing Market Just Hit a Wall
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 6 ก.ย. 2024
- Despite mortgage rates DECREASING to nearly a 6-month LOW, pending home sales posted the biggest decline in 8 months. On top of that, price reductions have been surging, hitting an all-time record high (for data that goes back to 2015) for the four weeks ended July 14, 2024. What’s remarkable about this is the fact that price reductions tend to peak in the Winter, not July. In addition, housing inventory has been on the rise which is good news for homebuyers: it’s very close to a 4-yearr high, despite a decline over the past 2 weeks.
In today’s video, I share the latest housing market trends for the United States based on Redfin’s latest housing market update (link below).
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Compilation of Housing Market Forecast videos:
• Housing Market Predict...
Sources of the Reports I Shared in Today’s Video:
www.redfin.com...
www.redfin.com...
To give you a quick mortgage interest rates update, according to the Mortgage News Daily the average 30 yr fixed rate mortgage is around 6.8% for the current mortgage rates (at the time of filming this video for those with excellent credit).
Comment below: what’s your housing market forecast? Do you think a housing crash will happen or are your housing market predictions that the real estate market and home prices will continue to surge?
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Jason Walter, CPA (inactive CPA lic 103885)
Sacramento real estate agent and native (DRE 01923240)
Mortgage Loan Officer, NMLS 2566691
Revest Homes (DRE 02174879, NMLS 2362319)
jason@meetjasonwalter.com
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Disclaimer:
Jason Walter is not a practicing tax accountant or a licensed attorney or financial adviser. Therefore, the information in these videos shall not be relied upon as tax, legal, or financial advice from a qualified perspective. If you need such advice, please contact a qualified tax accountant, attorney, or financial adviser. We have taken reasonable steps to check that the information in this video is accurate but we cannot represent that it is free from errors. You expressly agree not to rely upon any information contained in this video - it is for entertainment purposes only.
This video description may contain affiliate links that allow you to easily find the items mentioned in my videos as well as support the channel at no cost to you. Thank you for your support! Jason Walter is a licensed real estate agent and mortgage loan originator with Revest Homes in California (DRE 02174879, NMLS 2362319).
For informational purposes only. This is not a commitment to lend or extend credit. Information and/or dates are subject to change without notice. All loans are subject to credit approval. Other restrictions may apply. Equal housing lender.
#Redfin #realestate #housingmarket
6.8% down from 6.9% when a $160,000 home is listed at $380,000 just makes me laugh so hard lol.
@@enthused7591 townhouses worth 200k is at 300k+ it's pretty entertaining
@@enthused7591 it’s even worse here in my hometown. I’m on verge of leaving. It got flooded when cov!d happened. There is 200k houses for sale for 600k. Run down houses in my area can cost 700k plus. It’s got me considering leaving to find somewhere else more affordable to live.
It is just terrible. My children are approaching 40. I am so thankful they already had their homes before this!
@@kennydebaene2279 Right same here, east coast Florida. 30-year-old 1300 sq ft fixer uppers going for $325,000 that were $150,000 in 2020.
I live in Warren MI (is a Detroit Suburb). Housing prices all over the area are insanely inflated. I make 250k per year and I refuse to fall into the trap of overspending just because I can. They want 299k for a house right next door to 8 mile and crappy roads. No thanks! Holding out until January!
By Jan buying a house is gonna be much more expensive. The nar settlement rules go into effect august 17th
@@drewrowe Then just never buy a house. Why be forced into something? Tell the Boomers that they can keep their house/piggy banks or cut the price in half.
People don’t buy because the interest rate dropped a fraction of a percent. Before looking at current interest rates, buyers were already planning or needing to buy.
The interest rate is more or less an indicator of the supply/demand of available money to lend.
Currently house prices are too high for buyers to afford the mortgage payment. This, plus inflation consuming the rest of their budget, is the reason buyer demand is low.
Factors that would increase home buying:
- rapid increase in wages (not likely)
- significant drop in housing prices (not likely without a recession)
- significant drop in interest rates (which likely occurs due to a major drop in demand for money or a major increase in money availability… neither likely to occur without a RECESSION).
Home buying demand will remain low if conditions remain the same.
Rates would have to drop 2.5 not 0.25 to bring buyers back
A $3,000 monthly mortgage budget is not something to just spit out like it's nothing.
Correct. That was an odd number to throw out there. Not even including taxes and insurance haha
3000? Try $11k in California. It’s gonna end bad.
It hit a wall in March, these numbers lag. The housing market is in complete free fall, the market just hasn't recognized it yet.
I'm not seeing that in my area. Prices are still crazy high and low inventory. People often just list their house above market and just leave the listing up for 3-6 months hoping someone out of state will come in and pay cash.
@@censoredeveryday3320usually a Californian coming in. What a shit hole of economics. That state alone might take down the world economy just by having their people move out of state. Crazy
@@davidallen2682im Californian I don’t need to move to buy. Got cash saved up and cash is king!!!
@@davidallen2682if your not buying I’m buying simple as that. You wait you lose.
@@censoredeveryday3320 The timing is always different in every market. New England and California look like they'll be last to drop in price, but maaan TX, FL, TN, AZ and the mid-west are about to tank. I live in FL and inventory is higher than pre-covid levels and going up at a 90-degree angle. Zero demand homes, and they built more homes here in the last 3 years than from 2005-2007.
Why buy if one can rent and pay twice less? And not be bound to a certain area. Not to mention all the extra cost that comes with the home ownership 🤷♀️
When you rent from me, you pay all my costs plus my profit. Prices aren’t going down so it will be more expensive in 2030.
@@user-dn5ud1cr3b did you buy recently or have you place paid off already. That is a big difference. And I dont mind paying rent and investing left overs elsewhere. More profit compared if I threw all that $ at the overpriced mortgage
@@user-dn5ud1cr3b😂 💯 my kind of tenant.
@@user-dn5ud1cr3byou forgot tax breaks were getting 😂
....not in CA
Peak selling season over, no real fuel in the market with the rate drop? Here we go! Winter will be CRAAAAZY
We shall see. Let's watch inventory especially over the next couple of months.
No it won't. House's are still to expensive.
Agreed. The job cuts and home price increase will have an effect also. Always enjoy your work sir!
@@tywade9558it will be crazy because the prices will be dropping, connect the dots man
2% drop will be crazy especially when it goes up 4% next buying season 😂🤣
Nice video, prices don’t make any sense to incomes we will be in dulldrums for the years to come. Unless rates go to 4% it won’t make much of a difference for payments
This comment will demand the cheerleaders come out of the woodwork to supply counter narrative.
@@timber-rider it’s just the reality…..incomes in most markets don’t match prices or payments…..the market is in bubble status just waiting for an unknown to shake the trees fruits loose…math doesn’t lie…
Income don’t have to match. Look at global price to income. USA is still fine and is one of the only countries to have a 30 year fixed rate loan.
@@timber-rider this is just reality incomes don’t match prices or payments. The housing market is definitely in a bubble status just waiting for some unknown economic event to shake the fruits loose from the tree the math doesn’t lie.
@@joesmith3590 you are absolutely correct. They do not have to match that being said that is why most people end up in bankruptcy or have bad credit.
Next month when buyers have to pay buyer agents i am expecting listings to surge since sellers essentially get a 2.7 to 3% profit increase. I also expect demand to decrease while it gets worked out.
I don't expect that to happen at all. Sellers will likely continue offering to pay a buyer's agent broker in order to get their house sold. Buyers agents will have to sell themselves more to buyers though when asking for how much their services cost.
@@JasonWalter1 hope that's the case. We shall see
@JasonWalter1 That's exactly what will happen Jason. You may have a handful of cheap sellers try it the other way but they will quickly learn that craigslist buyers are a waste of time. This settlement changes absolutely nothing ans will have no meaningful effect on anything.
Detroit for some reason reminds me of tech stocks Uber peaking in ridiculous valuations before a big dip. Automotive is about to give up the ghost.
You are so consistent Jason it’s admirable
Thank you kindly!
Boring, gimme blue hair, then pink, then rainbow, then black
Great report, but in my area, housing is still overpriced. Inventory is low and so realtors are listing houses at ridiculous prices.
Same in NY, still at bidding wars here, anything within an hour of the city still has major bidding wars going on.
As they say, all real estate is local.
Same in colorado. Guess going to move elsewhere
@@billricheter5678do you live up in the mountains? In much of Colorado, supply of housing is up to prepandemic levels and rising very quickly
@@billricheter5678denver-aurora-Lakewood active listings in June were above the June levels for any year in the dataset I’m looking at, which goes back to 2016. Actually the highest level period.
and the annual supply spike isn’t due to end until after another two or three of months of data roll in
Riiight. And even with Apr that dropped for a single person with credit score of over 800 still won’t get a better Apr then 5.9 just like back in January.
The new build teaser rates of 5.5% isn't helping those units move much.. its not the rate, its the price.
Between HOA, small lots,and poor build quality a lot of people are not interested in the new builds. Not worth the higher price.
Great stuff again Jason! Appreciate the continued data dives. I'm visiting family in Alaska and for sakes I called a Realtor regarding a local foreclosure. I got the answering machine and I kid you not the opening response..."If you are currently upside down on your mortgage and are looking to sell please press 1." Have a great weekend!
His answering machine said that?! Wow
Have a great weekend!
but when will it hit 4% or so? prices need to drop in line with rates
You don’t want 4%, you want lower prices.
4%? We have a long ways to go. The rates you see today already priced in the expectation of rate cuts by the Fed this year and next.
Having worked as a Broker In Charge in South Carolina since 2005. I find it hard to believe the changes in commission will have a long term effect on the Realtors. The UPS always shows home owners and buyers need Realtors/Agents which ever they are. As we continue to see the market change, Realtors are needed more by most. Even for buyers agents. Once a few people make mistakes or have issues with closings, contracts, or coordinating to closing. People will see the value for a Realtor that cares about them. I'm not talking about Realtors just trying to get a check. There are many.
Find the right person! always use a Realtor. They are trained and required to have additional in addition to their state license requirements. Good luck!
Really interesting analysis. Love your details on numbers! Housing market is crazy right now. Keeping a close eye on mortgage rates and housing price changes in my state.
Haha people could barely afford living in 2021 when prices were low lol how do all these real estate agent think rates will make a difference. Prices have to come down
No. They don't. Millions of people who CAN afford will buy this year.
Warren is not its own metro, it’s a suburb of Detroit.
Idk man I’m in SoCal and seeing none of this . 455k budget and I can’t find shit
@@drewrowe move bro. You can get a lot of house for that kinda money elsewhere.
455k in so cal, lol.
@@drewrowe move to Florida
@@MLagarde0425 I lived there for 13yrs . Got tired of the heat humidity and hurricanes. I love California weather better so I’m staying . I’m doing well here compared to most
Sellers could be waiting for the NAR settlement to firm up what will happen with buyer’s commission before listing.
Bad advice in my opinion. I’m seeing brokerages already requiring a buyer broker agreement prior to showing houses. In the greater Sacramento area, I’m still seeing 99.% of sellers still offering a buyer agent commission and I don’t foresee that will change suddenly in mid-August.
@@JasonWalter1It won't. This is just another meaningless , irrelevant benchmark that crash bros are talking about. They will never stop.
They will for sure stop son because the feds have told them it is illegal. It isn’t a choice.
As always, great job Jason!!
Thank you!!
I hear you, but everyone has been calling for a crash for over a year.....
For over a years😊
This may be a good generalization, but local and regional markets in the area of interest are really what needs to be looked at.
Also median or average price statistics are nearly useless since there can and often are big differences between the average and the extremes. If you're interested in houses outside of the average whether lower in price or higher they're often available if you look.
The mortgage payment of $3,000 for $450k does not include the pmi, property taxes and home insurance. That is probably the payment itself, it also depends on on the down payment.
According to Redfin: "Assumes 20% down, a 30-year mortgage, 1.25% property tax rate, 0.5% homeowners insurance rate, and no HOA dues." That rate for property taxes is the average in CA for existing houses btw (that rate obviously varies for different areas and newer houses).
I see all these videos about price drops but I live here in fort lauderdale fl. And see houses being sold and a lot of pendings
Here...we..goooo!
Take aways. You said price reductions are peaking in July but I don't see a peak I see a trend. So what if this is just the start of them continuing to climb into the winter
I follow your channel, in one of the video you said you will be posting a video on Arizona market. Can you please do it? Interested in Phoenix and Scottsdale area!
Thanks in Advance!
Happy Friday my Nerdy Friend Jason Walter 😊😂
Happy Friday, Steve!
A $3,000 monthly mortgage budget 😂
What’s that like????
Living in Miami. Where is. Home for 450k where you would want to live? Where I rent went from 500k in 2020 to 800k in 2024.
But what is the buydown on points?
That's with no "buy down".
An increase in price drops would be a “recipe for disaster”? Whose side are you on here dayyyum.
Housing Market Collapse because 6% commission is null and void.!! The interest rate was higher but you made more money cause you took more money from the home seller.
Changes don’t go into effect until August 17th regarding the NAR settlement.
GM Jason
GM!
Were?….. were are these affordable homes? I’d really like to know because anywhere and everywhere is 300,000 minimum.
You're looking in the wrong places then.
@@joewoodchuck3824 on a serious note we’re should I be looking I love the ocean and don’t want to leave it so some were close to it. I loved in the Midwest 20+ years so I don’t want to go back.
@@Hvactech2391 Well, we lived in a coastal town in Connecticut for many years until two years ago. To be directly on the waterfront is prohibitively expensive, though we were on a lake 4 miles inland. We enjoyed the coast very much and do miss it. We're landlocked in Tennessee now. The mountains very near us are gorgeous and help a lot toward the absence of ocean waters. All of southern New England is typically pricey and the politics became unbearable over time. Northern New England is a little better. It's mostly Maine in terms of coast which is very nice. Not too cheap there either.
I find it difficult to recommend anywhere in the northeast. I don't want to offend you so I hesitate to comment on the political situation. But I will say that Tennessee is much more aligned with my thinking. Glean from that as you wish.
Anything from Virginia South may be worth investigating except for Florida which is going through some hard times right now. Condos especially. Insurance has become a big factor in cost of living due to increasing storms. The rest of the Gulf coast may be worth looking into. I don't know much about the remaining four states except that it's hot.
Nothing on the West Coast would interest me at all. California is in a huge mess right now for too many reasons to list.
We chose Tennessee primarily for cost of living and middle of the road climate. Definitely warmer than the northeast, but not like farther south. Winters are great. We get an average of 3" of snow per year and the growing season is definitely longer.
I recommend either getting a notebook or prepare for a lot of printing. Many sites talk about cost of living, job prospects, climate, crime, culture, etc. Take it all in for evaluating regions and especially individual states. Weatherspark is fantastic for climate evaluations as well as www.weather.gov each presenting information differently than the other.
Oh, and on crime there's wide interpretation of stats. Tennessee for example isn't the best for crime, but not the worst either. And if you dig a little deeper you'll find most of it is concentrated in the western areas especially closer to Memphis. We're in East Tennessee which is fine. Lastly, don't worry too much about median prices. There are wide variations of real estate values, both above and below average. Our house is in a nice neighborhood and cost about half of the median.
Please feel free to stay in contact if you want more.
@@Hvactech2391 My lengthy reply didn't post for some reason. I don't feel like retyping the whole thing. I did exhaustive research before winding up in Tennessee. You can ask for more any time if you like. One thing for sure, median prices only give you a very rough idea. There's usually plenty of housing in other price ranges. Dig a little deeper for a much more informative picture of what things cost.
Hi Jason, can you do a video describing the process for becoming a loan officer?
I should have made that video back in January! Anyone else interested?
"as well"
It makes sense demand slows down due children going back to school. We just hit “seasonality”
If it were seasonality then why is inventory continuing to go up when seasonally it should be going down? Also, good luck refinancing to 3% that won't happen within your lifetime.
@@ZuluNation05 did the price came down? 😂 okay well good luck waiting. With or without rate drop. I don’t care my tenants like you are paying my mortgage 😂
Agree. Most of the buying by me was done by May. Both sellers and buyers need the early summer to vacation and then relocate. School here starts August 8th.
@House_hacker_619 there's a substantial ammount of price drops buddy. Median may seem high but that's only because more homes above the 1 million dollar level are selling compared to ones being held that are affordable. Lower income can't move. That's manipulating the data because only the rich can afford the multi million dollar homes. It doesn't take much brainpower to figure that out.
@@JBoy340a exactly!!! I remember in May 2022. I transferred from camp Lejeune, NC to San Diego and market was nuts and people were paying 100k over asking. I’m like nah I’m not joining that party. I waited In July and got lucky. I found a cash flow property that I want. The rest is history and made the best decision. Better than the 1st rental property I bought in June 2009.
Tagalog language “Magandang umaga”Jason
Thank God for google translate my friend!😂🤣😂I had no idea 🤷🏽♂️ what you said!🤣😂🤣
@@Steverz32😂 something new. I’ll be saying it in different language everyday
@@Steverz32how are you my friend?
Good morning!
@@House_hacker_619 doing great brother & yourself?🤷🏽♂️Hopefully your doing great as well👍
1😊