The Mets were the better team for the last 4 months. You guys started strong and let off the gas halfway through the season. The Mets had to crawl back from 11 games under to make the playoffs by being the best team in baseball since June. The Phillies have got to make some changes, and I would start by firing Kevin Long. We went through the same thing when he was with the Mets as the hitting coach. The home run or bust mentality doesn't play well in the playoffs. Too much talent on the Phillies to squander it by letting asshats poison the mindset and approach of the players.
Good to know there is a pattern there with Long. He was someone I wanted the team to move on from, but part of me wondered if it is him or if it was the players.
I don't know that it would matter. These guys are high paid veterans. The only guys on this team with an approach is harper and shwarber. Turner nick and jt just free swinger's probably yo late to change that.
@@codyfarmer1yeah you got a point here, but Kevin Long does not help, I promise you. The OP is right. He was our hitting coach during the World Series run in 2015, but the following two seasons, it just felt like they only hunted fastballs and had a really narrow minded approach at the plate those two years. That said, I was talking to a Phils fan yesterday about this, I came into the series thinking that the Phillies are dangerous hitters but not smart ones. And I would love to see the team chase rate for the Phils in this series. Some of the worst ABs I’ve ever seen.
The home run or bust mentality won the Braves a chip in ‘21 and the Rangers one in ‘23. Realize you may have not watched either postseason as your team did not participate.
@@claydouglas2526all due respect, but I watched both playoffs. the braves and the rangers I would hardly call HR or bust teams. The Braves lineup was incredibly balanced. They hit 4 HRs in 4 games in the NLDS, 8 HRs in 6 games in the NLCS. An OPS of .697 in the NLDS. A whopping .743 in the NLCS. they won because they were an intelligent lineup. Same with the Rangers. They hit a lot of home runs but they were FAR from “HR or bust” in 2023.
Thanks Connor. Always a good take on the Phillies. Hope that Harper can be healthy for the full season next year. It will really uplift the team, and be strong going into the playoffs in 2025.
50-47 since the London series June 8-9 42-39 after June 27 (game 81) 39-38 since July 1 This team was feeble since the beginning of June while radio personalities and many fans were declaring them the world series winners.
So I'm a mathematician, not a statistician - there's a big difference I did get all As in my graduate level stats classes, but I don't want to think about it. So I asked my Uncle Google, and he directed me to a fine bloke named Chris Spark who holds a Bachelor's degree in math and stats from University of Exeter Let's say team A has a .600 winning percentage, that is, the likelihood of winning any game is 60% Further, let's say team B has .400 WP, that is, the likelihood of winning any game is 40% (For the next part, I change the statement of the problem slightly from what Chris says, but I'm still using his solution) To make our lives simpler, let's assume there are only 2 teams in this universe. Also, we make no claims about how these "likelihoods of winning" are derived, that is, how many games they have played, against who, etc. So, according to Chris, in a best 4 out of 7 series, Team A will win the series approximately 71% of the time Now, given that we know the Mets and Phils WPs for the 2024 season, and we're looking at a best 3 of 5 series, I can use an argument analogous to what Chris did in order to compute a pretty accurate idea of how likely the Phils were to win this series. But I'm not going to, because I'm lazily clever I will use my mathematical cleverness to infer that Phils should win such a series somewhere between 51% and 70% of the time For my purposes, that's sufficiently accurate Now, I hate to be a pest, but don't you think you're being alarmingly pessimistic? These are the Philadelphia Phillies, not the RMS Titanic Phils have a solid and balanced team They are getting old, so time is running out But there are 29 other teams out there, and only one team can go all the way All things considered, I like the Phils' chances in 2025 Top-notch rotation, lacking really only a #5 Lineup is potentially explosive Rock solid #3 hitter, dude with 2 MVP notches on his belt BTW Longtime Mets fan EDIT: Here's a more accurate guess In conditions given above, using Method of Chris I claim Phils would win a 3 of 5 series against the Mets around 54%, of the time With margin of error +_ 2%
Mets fan here and I agree - the Phillies were the more talented team. But the Phil’s are also a well run organization who will be good for years to come.
Realmuto is not the same player he was two years ago, and Trea Turner's looks like he is starting to decline, and Bohm while talented, looks like needs a new scenery. Vientos, Acuna, Alvarez, Mauricio and others will only get better plus the Mets will have millions of dollars coming off the books. Altanta will be at full power next year and they are still young. The Phillies door is closing fast, or is already closed.
@@robertday1598 I hear ya about that but well run organizations figure it out, and the Phils are well run. As for the Mets names above, a lot of those guys are kinda unproven so could take steps back. I like what I see but they’re young (except for Alvarez who I’m bought into). As for guys declining in their long contracts, we’ve had our share. I think we still have Robinson Cano on our books. Ouch. And give me Zach Wheeler back 😂😂😂
First time listener. I am a Braves fan. Just wanted to hear how Philly feels about getting Phillied by the Mets. It sucks … not sure who I wanted to win that series. I do enjoy how Philly fans support the team. Wish we had that down here.
@@Jsc8zaq I'm not saying he was bad. But a great pitching performance is going 7 scoreless. There is nothing great about not even getting out of the 5th and having your bullpen warm up multiple times before they finally replace you.
@@willpina Exactly. Dude walks 4 batters, gives up 5 hits, throws 97 pitches in 4 1/3 innings. If he left the game up 10-0 he wouldn't even qualify for a win. No idea why some fans are treating his start like it was some inspirational Disney movie.
They were pathetic. They had no fight in them and rolled over and choked. I said in July that our bullpen sucked. People attacked me saying their “analytics” were one of the best in baseball. But I could tell by the eye test, they could never hold the lead. They’ve been pathetic and immediately give up runs. The bats and the bullpen should be ashamed of themselves. They got dog walked and they deserved to lose with that effort.
To what you said around 19:30. I'm a braves fan and I noticed that phillies fans are intentionally being careful not to talk about having the bye week and thinking it may have affected your offense. Everyone has their opinions on this of course but I couldn't help but notice that the phillies literally choked the same way the braves did last year. I mean they lost game 1, won game 2 (barely), got slammed in game 3 and lost game 4. Exactly the way the braves choked last year. You can't deny it is a possibility but we may never know for sure. But overall I think you guys need to stop ripping on braves fans saying we always make excuses ok it's getting old. I converse with braves fans regularly and I rarely ever see that. People like me never hesitate to call out the idiots on our team who choke and don't bring their game with them. Every time we lose a game it's all we ever do. If you've ever seen the braves reddit page or the main braves FB group it would prove that.
They were not the better team since June. As far as payroll, the Mets spent less money than last year by getting rid of their Cy Young pitchers , cut their losses, and let the new manager do his thing. The Mets got to everyone’s bullpen. Perhaps sitting for a week hurt. In the end the Mets were feistier and really hungry and we have a wonderful manager. I am a Mets fan and really enjoy your thoughtfulness and intelligence.
Hilarious to me that everyone thinks the Phillies are so talented. Where? Marsh? Stott? Nola? Sosa? Bohm? Other utility guy I can’t remember? Trea turner? Guy sucks. Schwarber, Harper, Nick. That’s it. That’s all you got. Most of the lineup is awful.
The worst part of the Philly is the Lineup. They are in the worst position. Why Turner isn't the first at bat? Is no contribution with a solo Home Run. With a line up like that Grand Slam can be more common. How 5 slugger in a row? Plus Mets Defense is out of chain. Mets is a golden Glove overall team.
If we didn't have to play the Mets for 7 games damn near the last week of regular season ball, I think we would have won. They studied the Phillies those 7 games and figured out how to handle the NLDS.
That’s the dumbest take I’ve heard for them losing. The Mets lost 2/3 in Milwaukee and 3 days later we’re back and beat them in WC. Your team couldn’t hit and the bullpen was awful in all 4 games. Lucky u didn’t get swept honestly
Conner... YOU were the ONLY Phillies "pundit" pointing out that the Phils SUCKED back to May 20, or so. All the other announcers kept talking about the slump as if it was only a few weeks long. Were they just trying to KEEP SELLING TICKETS??? Face it, the Phillies had SEVEN GOOD WEEKS all season.
We may not win the big one. But we get better every year. I'm disappointed but still proud of the year. Next year will be better then this year. I'll live and die a Phillies fan. It's a chess game. Need a few more pieces.
nothing to figure out.. baseball playoffs the team that comes in the hottest is the most dangerous , all the regular team stats and standings ect amount to nothing. Mets went from playing with house $ to a team that developed confidence and became clutch in key situations when they needed to- hitting and pitching which made them the better team. the Phillies were very fortunate winning 1 game in Philly and not getting swept.
Mets fan here and your bullpen was awful in all 4 games. Yes the lineup got shut down but good pitching stops good hitting in playoffs. Your bullpen was just horrible and blew a wheeler gem and Suarez escaped disaster a few times only for bullpen to blow it again
The Phillies had the softest schedule in the first half and they took advantage of it. That's what good teams do. But there were signs even through that first half that the Phillies were paper tigers.
Man you met fans are starved for playoff wins.. y'all came to every Phillies video to brag like little children???? We have beat so many teams in the playoffs.. you know what I've never done... What you clowns did to to there teams TH-cam videos and boast... Sad
Connor there offense was a problem the entire 2nd half of the season you had to be blind or just plain naive to think that there hitting struggles wouldn't cost them in the playoffs.To be clear though just because I saw this coming doesn't mean I am a negative fan I live and die with this team and I want to see them succeed but the facts are the facts they underachieved again because they are a flawed lineup that has way to much swing and misse and they fail to make adjustments.
bohm should be gone he only go for half a year. that is the problem of being an all star because it is only a half a year thing which is wrong it should be a full year thing.
What drug are you on. Did you see the 500 play after the All-Star break. You don't know if their trending down? You know what I'm not doing watching them next year. They did not show up so I'm not showing up. F the Phillies.
Zach Wheeler probably realizes he should have stayed with the Mets. I'm sure he misses the Mets organization and we welcome him with open arms if he decides to come back.
Let's facei it , too much prideful PHILLIES, lack of humility and having a poor second half. The METS had the best second half in MLB, the most come from behind victories and were always humble in their demeanor.
The Mets were the better team for the last 4 months. You guys started strong and let off the gas halfway through the season. The Mets had to crawl back from 11 games under to make the playoffs by being the best team in baseball since June. The Phillies have got to make some changes, and I would start by firing Kevin Long. We went through the same thing when he was with the Mets as the hitting coach. The home run or bust mentality doesn't play well in the playoffs. Too much talent on the Phillies to squander it by letting asshats poison the mindset and approach of the players.
Good to know there is a pattern there with Long. He was someone I wanted the team to move on from, but part of me wondered if it is him or if it was the players.
I don't know that it would matter. These guys are high paid veterans. The only guys on this team with an approach is harper and shwarber. Turner nick and jt just free swinger's probably yo late to change that.
@@codyfarmer1yeah you got a point here, but Kevin Long does not help, I promise you. The OP is right. He was our hitting coach during the World Series run in 2015, but the following two seasons, it just felt like they only hunted fastballs and had a really narrow minded approach at the plate those two years. That said, I was talking to a Phils fan yesterday about this, I came into the series thinking that the Phillies are dangerous hitters but not smart ones. And I would love to see the team chase rate for the Phils in this series. Some of the worst ABs I’ve ever seen.
The home run or bust mentality won the Braves a chip in ‘21 and the Rangers one in ‘23.
Realize you may have not watched either postseason as your team did not participate.
@@claydouglas2526all due respect, but I watched both playoffs. the braves and the rangers I would hardly call HR or bust teams. The Braves lineup was incredibly balanced. They hit 4 HRs in 4 games in the NLDS, 8 HRs in 6 games in the NLCS. An OPS of .697 in the NLDS. A whopping .743 in the NLCS. they won because they were an intelligent lineup. Same with the Rangers. They hit a lot of home runs but they were FAR from “HR or bust” in 2023.
This team has been playing at a 500 level team since late June. You shouldn't be surprised by what happened.
@BillRolette 500 was an IMPROVEMENT because May 20 thru June 25 they were under 500
This guy Connor sounds like he never accepted what this team was the past few months.
The Mets are a better TEAM. Go down the line at each position, we're better. The only thing I can give you is that you had a better ace but that's it.
Thanks Connor. Always a good take on the Phillies. Hope that Harper can be healthy for the full season next year. It will really uplift the team, and be strong going into the playoffs in 2025.
50-47 since the London series June 8-9
42-39 after June 27 (game 81)
39-38 since July 1
This team was feeble since the beginning of June while radio personalities and many fans were declaring them the world series winners.
For context - the Mets record during those same periods:
Since London: 62-37
From game 81: 52-29
Since July 1: 49-32
Thank you Connor for all your episodes this season and I've watch them all since spring training. This really sucks dude
Thank you for all your hard work, brotha, the season was fun and I looked forward to these every day
So
I'm a mathematician, not a statistician - there's a big difference
I did get all As in my graduate level stats classes, but I don't want to think about it.
So I asked my Uncle Google, and he directed me to a fine bloke named Chris Spark who holds a Bachelor's degree in math and stats from University of Exeter
Let's say team A has a .600 winning percentage, that is, the likelihood of winning any game is 60%
Further, let's say team B has .400 WP, that is, the likelihood of winning any game is 40%
(For the next part, I change the statement of the problem slightly from what Chris says, but I'm still using his solution)
To make our lives simpler, let's assume there are only 2 teams in this universe.
Also, we make no claims about how these "likelihoods of winning" are derived, that is, how many games they have played, against who, etc.
So, according to Chris, in a best 4 out of 7 series, Team A will win the series approximately 71% of the time
Now, given that we know the Mets and Phils WPs for the 2024 season, and we're looking at a best 3 of 5 series, I can use an argument analogous to what Chris did in order to compute a pretty accurate idea of how likely the Phils were to win this series.
But I'm not going to, because I'm lazily clever
I will use my mathematical cleverness to infer that Phils should win such a series somewhere between 51% and 70% of the time
For my purposes, that's sufficiently accurate
Now, I hate to be a pest, but don't you think you're being alarmingly pessimistic?
These are the Philadelphia Phillies, not the RMS Titanic
Phils have a solid and balanced team
They are getting old, so time is running out
But there are 29 other teams out there, and only one team can go all the way
All things considered, I like the Phils' chances in 2025
Top-notch rotation, lacking really only a #5
Lineup is potentially explosive
Rock solid #3 hitter, dude with 2 MVP notches on his belt
BTW
Longtime Mets fan
EDIT:
Here's a more accurate guess
In conditions given above, using Method of Chris
I claim Phils would win a 3 of 5 series against the Mets around 54%, of the time
With margin of error +_ 2%
Mets fan here and I agree - the Phillies were the more talented team. But the Phil’s are also a well run organization who will be good for years to come.
Realmuto is not the same player he was two years ago, and Trea Turner's looks like he is starting to decline, and Bohm while talented, looks like needs a new scenery. Vientos, Acuna, Alvarez, Mauricio and others will only get better plus the Mets will have millions of dollars coming off the books. Altanta will be at full power next year and they are still young. The Phillies door is closing fast, or is already closed.
@@robertday1598 I hear ya about that but well run organizations figure it out, and the Phils are well run. As for the Mets names above, a lot of those guys are kinda unproven so could take steps back. I like what I see but they’re young (except for Alvarez who I’m bought into). As for guys declining in their long contracts, we’ve had our share. I think we still have Robinson Cano on our books. Ouch. And give me Zach Wheeler back
😂😂😂
First time listener. I am a Braves fan. Just wanted to hear how Philly feels about getting Phillied by the Mets. It sucks … not sure who I wanted to win that series. I do enjoy how Philly fans support the team. Wish we had that down here.
I’ve always thought Braves are pretty passionate too about our team.
Are you freakin kidding me? Ranger Suarez wasn't unbelievable. He didn't dominate. He escaped by the skin of his teeth.
Agreed, I don't understand the logic of saying a pitcher that only goes 4 and 2/3 and puts additional stress on the bullpen, was great
@@willpinaI disagree. He had 8 strikeouts in 4 innings
@@Jsc8zaq I'm not saying he was bad. But a great pitching performance is going 7 scoreless. There is nothing great about not even getting out of the 5th and having your bullpen warm up multiple times before they finally replace you.
@@willpina Exactly. Dude walks 4 batters, gives up 5 hits, throws 97 pitches in 4 1/3 innings. If he left the game up 10-0 he wouldn't even qualify for a win. No idea why some fans are treating his start like it was some inspirational Disney movie.
Love the breakdown, but did you not watch their last 99 games? You can't flip the switch on and off at will and this team was atrocious from June on.
Connor this Mets fan is a subscriber and really enjoys your podcast. Keep up the great work my friend...
In a do or die game. If I was Rob Thompson. I would of pulled Ranger when he did and put Wheeler in the rest of the game and Sanchez game 5
They were pathetic. They had no fight in them and rolled over and choked. I said in July that our bullpen sucked. People attacked me saying their “analytics” were one of the best in baseball. But I could tell by the eye test, they could never hold the lead. They’ve been pathetic and immediately give up runs. The bats and the bullpen should be ashamed of themselves. They got dog walked and they deserved to lose with that effort.
To what you said around 19:30. I'm a braves fan and I noticed that phillies fans are intentionally being careful not to talk about having the bye week and thinking it may have affected your offense. Everyone has their opinions on this of course but I couldn't help but notice that the phillies literally choked the same way the braves did last year. I mean they lost game 1, won game 2 (barely), got slammed in game 3 and lost game 4. Exactly the way the braves choked last year. You can't deny it is a possibility but we may never know for sure.
But overall I think you guys need to stop ripping on braves fans saying we always make excuses ok it's getting old. I converse with braves fans regularly and I rarely ever see that. People like me never hesitate to call out the idiots on our team who choke and don't bring their game with them. Every time we lose a game it's all we ever do. If you've ever seen the braves reddit page or the main braves FB group it would prove that.
Thanks Connor, see ya next season.
They were not the better team since June. As far as payroll, the Mets spent less money than last year by getting rid of their Cy Young pitchers , cut their losses, and let the new manager do his thing. The Mets got to everyone’s bullpen. Perhaps sitting for a week hurt. In the end the Mets were feistier and really hungry and we have a wonderful manager. I am a Mets fan and really enjoy your thoughtfulness and intelligence.
I guess that long layoff is looking different now....
Hilarious to me that everyone thinks the Phillies are so talented. Where? Marsh? Stott? Nola? Sosa? Bohm? Other utility guy I can’t remember? Trea turner? Guy sucks. Schwarber, Harper, Nick. That’s it. That’s all you got. Most of the lineup is awful.
Exactly I don't get it either I'm confused
In the moment, our big boys won it for us.
“Did the Phillies lose or did the Mets win?” Both.
You think Thomson is going to admit they’re moving backwards? No way he could say that.
That playoff series was a catastrophe
The worst part of the Philly is the Lineup. They are in the worst position. Why Turner isn't the first at bat? Is no contribution with a solo Home Run. With a line up like that Grand Slam can be more common. How 5 slugger in a row? Plus Mets Defense is out of chain. Mets is a golden Glove overall team.
Bullpen failed because the mets continuously out epic ABs on them. Mets absolutely won this vs phillies losing it
If we didn't have to play the Mets for 7 games damn near the last week of regular season ball, I think we would have won. They studied the Phillies those 7 games and figured out how to handle the NLDS.
That’s the dumbest take I’ve heard for them losing. The Mets lost 2/3 in Milwaukee and 3 days later we’re back and beat them in WC. Your team couldn’t hit and the bullpen was awful in all 4 games. Lucky u didn’t get swept honestly
Yankees played royals last week or 2nd to last week in a series.
Shouldn't that go both ways?
That "talented team" dosent matter. It's who playing better at the time.
They’re not all that talented. If you really think about it.
Conner... YOU were the ONLY Phillies "pundit" pointing out that the Phils SUCKED back to May 20, or so. All the other announcers kept talking about the slump as if it was only a few weeks long. Were they just trying to KEEP SELLING TICKETS??? Face it, the Phillies had SEVEN GOOD WEEKS all season.
Don't add anymore old worn out players like Whit Merrifield.
We may not win the big one. But we get better every year. I'm disappointed but still proud of the year. Next year will be better then this year. I'll live and die a Phillies fan. It's a chess game. Need a few more pieces.
nothing to figure out.. baseball playoffs the team that comes in the hottest is the most dangerous , all the regular team stats and standings ect amount to nothing.
Mets went from playing with house $ to a team that developed confidence and became clutch in key situations when they needed to- hitting and pitching which made them the better team.
the Phillies were very fortunate winning 1 game in Philly and not getting swept.
I'm excited to see how Andrew painter turns out. Much love outta southern Delaware
He's pitching in the Arizona Fall League on 10/12!
Phillies ran into a red hot Mets team. Call it like it is……….
Horrible take. How is the bullpen the biggest reason? They didn’t score.
Mets fan here and your bullpen was awful in all 4 games. Yes the lineup got shut down but good pitching stops good hitting in playoffs. Your bullpen was just horrible and blew a wheeler gem and Suarez escaped disaster a few times only for bullpen to blow it again
Weston Wilson hit the ball hard 3 times but right at fielders. Ok to me to give him a chance.
Way better at bats than austin hayes.
The Phillies had the softest schedule in the first half and they took advantage of it. That's what good teams do. But there were signs even through that first half that the Phillies were paper tigers.
I also disagree that the bullpen is the reason why you were sent home. It was the offense
2007 is dead This philly collapse is just as bad it took 17 years but we got our revenge and in the playoffs to how sweet .LFGM
Man you met fans are starved for playoff wins.. y'all came to every Phillies video to brag like little children???? We have beat so many teams in the playoffs.. you know what I've never done... What you clowns did to to there teams TH-cam videos and boast... Sad
The Mets played better because they are the better team! The Phils were better in April and May. The Mets were better the next four plus months.
Look how estevez is clenching his pants tightly in the thumbnail, poor guy
You wanted the Mets instead of the brewers Mr Thomas any regrets? 😂
i can hear your voice like the one you have after game 2
Face it. Phila sports teams can't cut the mustard!
Lol the Phillies season lasted one week longer then a bunch of 3rd string Braves players.
Connor there offense was a problem the entire 2nd half of the season you had to be blind or just plain naive to think that there hitting struggles wouldn't cost them in the playoffs.To be clear though just because I saw this coming doesn't mean I am a negative fan I live and die with this team and I want to see them succeed but the facts are the facts they underachieved again because they are a flawed lineup that has way to much swing and misse and they fail to make adjustments.
bohm should be gone he only go for half a year. that is the problem of being an all star because it is only a half a year thing which is wrong it should be a full year thing.
Austin hays gotta go man
Bro you look like Pete Alonso’s twin lol
Wow you look likePete Alonso
Fire Dumbrowski
JT and Bohm need to be fired into the sun
Along with Marsh and Rojas
What drug are you on. Did you see the 500 play after the All-Star break. You don't know if their trending down? You know what I'm not doing watching them next year. They did not show up so I'm not showing up. F the Phillies.
Zach Wheeler probably realizes he should have stayed with the Mets. I'm sure he misses the Mets organization and we welcome him with open arms if he decides to come back.
Aww… what is shame….☹️🙁😕😩😟🥵🤬
NAH NAH NAH NAH NAH NAH NAH NAH HEY HEEEEEEY GOODBYEEEE
Let's facei it , too much prideful PHILLIES, lack of humility and having a poor second half. The METS had the best second half in MLB, the most come from behind victories and were always humble in their demeanor.
Thanks Connor, see ya next season.