@43:26 Neil Dutta, Renaissance Micro, rattled off his laundry list (everybody has one) on why the FED should CUT. 1. "Unemployment may rise, not a lot, but a little bit from here." (Not very convincing tone of voice, Neil) Here's the data (driven) = BLS Unemployment January 2022 = 4%, May 2024 = 4%. For 2 YEARS the unemployment rate hovered between 3.5-3.9%. The June 2024 (May) Jobs Report = BLOWOUT 272,000 new jobs! Can you imagine the FED sitting around the table, "the economy just produced 272,000 new jobs. Neil Dutta (and a cast of thousands) says we should CUT because unemployment might go up a little." Picture in your mind the UPROAR.
2. @43:37 Neil Dutta, "significant amount of disinflation in the pipeline." "Strong dollar... downward pressure on (imports) consumer goods prices." Due to time constraints, Neil did not go into details about some of his other PROGNOSTICATIONS for lower prices in everything from insurance to used cars. He summed it up: "prices will CONTINUE to come down." Car and homeowners insurance CONTINUE to come down? When was your last premium due? The only CONTINUATION is UP UP UP. Home prices hit new records every time a report is published. I did like Mr. Dutta's 'strong dollar' point. And with bonds paying a handsome 5%, everybody in the world is parking their money in American treasuries. Great way to keep the deficit ship afloat. Would Mr. Dutta prefer the Chinese yuan at 2%?
4. @44:52 Neil Dutta, "where's the UPward inflation surprise coming from?" Surprise? We're still trying to get out of the last 'surprise'! Can't we do that first? I'll tell you where the next 'surprise' comes from (pardon my SPECULATION) = the FED CUTting too soon.
@7:35 thank you Katrina Dudley, Franklin Templeton, for reminding us of the FEDs DUAL MANDATE = INFLATION/EMPLOYMENT. The next time Bloomberg trots out an 'expert' who warns 'the FED is going to break something!' Where is 'break something' in the dual mandate?
@12:05 Katrina Dudley, Franklin Templeton. Brilliant analysis regarding US Presidential election. It's not "who will win?" it's the uncertainty that there is no clear cut front runner. Companies have to plan for either/or, worst case, which will add expense to their operation. Dudley: "As a result, both sides will price in the fact you are going to lose... Once we get through the election we will have those gains come back."
There’s two reasons why people aren’t buying pools anymore: (1) pools are just too expensive, and (2) people are building ADUs in their back yards leaving no room for a pool.
@ 59:38 Wei Le, "You talk about Australia/Canada. INFLATION HAS NOT GONE AWAY." Are we listening, Neil (and a cast of thousands)? Wei Le: "Labor shortage (many experts believe immigration is a deterrent to INFLATION because it puts downward pressure on WAGES); NetZero transition creating supply constraints... Still in an environment of PERSISTENT INFLATION. Even if Central Banks start CUTting, they're not going to be able to go all the way, the way they have in the past."
@41:43 Neil Dutta, Renaissance Macro. Oh, where to begin... I realize everyone has an opinion. Bloomberg should've had Dutta on yesterday with Greg Peters, PGIM, who flat out said there are "more inflationary pressures right now than deflationary pressures." Two experts with opposing viewpoints could duke it out. Since I agree more with Peters than Dutta, I guess it's up to me to pick Dutta apart, here goes... @41:54 Dutta: "core inflation is down." Sure it's down, but core inflation is nowhere near the FED preferred level. I think it was Jerome himself who said getting from 2.5 to 2.0 might take YEARS! @42:23 Lisa: "why are you banging the drum NOW." Which is a great question, considering none other than Mohamed El Erian was 'banging the drum' a YEAR ago. Begs the question, when is Bloomberg going to have El Erian explain where his 'CUTting edge' analysis went wrong? Perhaps the same can apply here to Dutta. What's that word? Hindsight? The only person who has made the right calls throughout this entire soft landing has been the only one who counts. @43:13 Dutta: "Which direction is both of these indicators going to be over the next six months?" Okay, here's the fundamental difference = ALL the guests on Bloomberg, and even Mike himself, are Wall Street SPECULATORS. It's what they do. 99% of every Bloomberg show is SPECULATION = what will be? What's going to happen? The FED on the other hand, doesn't SPECULATE at all! Data driven. Instead of shouting into the wind "CUT CUT CUT", Messrs. Dutta / El Erian, and a cast of thousands would be better served expending energy lobbying Congress to legislate changes on how the FED operates. (That is, of course, if they want the FED to SPECULATE. Be careful what you wish for!) What a coincidence! Didn't one of the Presidential candidates say he would work to CHANGE how the FED operates. What happened when the candidate everyone hates but we love his policies talked about messin' with the FED the other day?
oh look, Dani is wearing Annmarie's pink blazer from yesterday. Or, more accurately, Dani is wearing Annmarie's pink blazer from the 6/25 show, which, if today is 6/26, then 6/25 was yesterday. But if today is 6/24, then Dani is wearing Annmarie's pink blazer from TOMORROW.
Typo: This should be June 26th not June 24th.
oh you noticed that too. You beat me to the 🥊. What I want to know is - if 6/26 has usurped the moniker 6/24, where does that put the 6/24 episode?
Would be interesting to know what Neil thinks about the the effects of deportation under the 2 different candidates' policies.
@43:26 Neil Dutta, Renaissance Micro, rattled off his laundry list (everybody has one) on why the FED should CUT.
1. "Unemployment may rise, not a lot, but a little bit from here." (Not very convincing tone of voice, Neil) Here's the data (driven) = BLS Unemployment January 2022 = 4%, May 2024 = 4%. For 2 YEARS the unemployment rate hovered between 3.5-3.9%. The June 2024 (May) Jobs Report = BLOWOUT 272,000 new jobs! Can you imagine the FED sitting around the table, "the economy just produced 272,000 new jobs. Neil Dutta (and a cast of thousands) says we should CUT because unemployment might go up a little."
Picture in your mind the UPROAR.
2. @43:37 Neil Dutta, "significant amount of disinflation in the pipeline." "Strong dollar... downward pressure on (imports) consumer goods prices." Due to time constraints, Neil did not go into details about some of his other PROGNOSTICATIONS for lower prices in everything from insurance to used cars. He summed it up: "prices will CONTINUE to come down." Car and homeowners insurance CONTINUE to come down? When was your last premium due? The only CONTINUATION is UP UP UP. Home prices hit new records every time a report is published.
I did like Mr. Dutta's 'strong dollar' point. And with bonds paying a handsome 5%, everybody in the world is parking their money in American treasuries. Great way to keep the deficit ship afloat. Would Mr. Dutta prefer the Chinese yuan at 2%?
4. @44:52 Neil Dutta, "where's the UPward inflation surprise coming from?" Surprise? We're still trying to get out of the last 'surprise'! Can't we do that first? I'll tell you where the next 'surprise' comes from (pardon my SPECULATION) = the FED CUTting too soon.
@7:35 thank you Katrina Dudley, Franklin Templeton, for reminding us of the FEDs DUAL MANDATE = INFLATION/EMPLOYMENT. The next time Bloomberg trots out an 'expert' who warns 'the FED is going to break something!' Where is 'break something' in the dual mandate?
@12:05 Katrina Dudley, Franklin Templeton. Brilliant analysis regarding US Presidential election. It's not "who will win?" it's the uncertainty that there is no clear cut front runner. Companies have to plan for either/or, worst case, which will add expense to their operation.
Dudley: "As a result, both sides will price in the fact you are going to lose... Once we get through the election we will have those gains come back."
And if you need reinforcement of this point, look no further than the next guest, Wendy Schiller, Taubman Center, @22:25 said exactly the same thing.
❤❤❤❤خهمنتعهخم
It's refreshing to hear facts free of all the nonsense, and I heartily suggest this podcast to friends who are attempting to manage their money
There’s two reasons why people aren’t buying pools anymore: (1) pools are just too expensive, and (2) people are building ADUs in their back yards leaving no room for a pool.
@ 59:38 Wei Le, "You talk about Australia/Canada. INFLATION HAS NOT GONE AWAY." Are we listening, Neil (and a cast of thousands)?
Wei Le: "Labor shortage (many experts believe immigration is a deterrent to INFLATION because it puts downward pressure on WAGES); NetZero transition creating supply constraints... Still in an environment of PERSISTENT INFLATION. Even if Central Banks start CUTting, they're not going to be able to go all the way, the way they have in the past."
Baba Booey … Baba Booey
@41:43 Neil Dutta, Renaissance Macro. Oh, where to begin... I realize everyone has an opinion. Bloomberg should've had Dutta on yesterday with Greg Peters, PGIM, who flat out said there are "more inflationary pressures right now than deflationary pressures." Two experts with opposing viewpoints could duke it out. Since I agree more with Peters than Dutta, I guess it's up to me to pick Dutta apart, here goes...
@41:54 Dutta: "core inflation is down." Sure it's down, but core inflation is nowhere near the FED preferred level. I think it was Jerome himself who said getting from 2.5 to 2.0 might take YEARS!
@42:23 Lisa: "why are you banging the drum NOW." Which is a great question, considering none other than Mohamed El Erian was 'banging the drum' a YEAR ago. Begs the question, when is Bloomberg going to have El Erian explain where his 'CUTting edge' analysis went wrong? Perhaps the same can apply here to Dutta. What's that word? Hindsight? The only person who has made the right calls throughout this entire soft landing has been the only one who counts.
@43:13 Dutta: "Which direction is both of these indicators going to be over the next six months?" Okay, here's the fundamental difference = ALL the guests on Bloomberg, and even Mike himself, are Wall Street SPECULATORS. It's what they do. 99% of every Bloomberg show is SPECULATION = what will be? What's going to happen? The FED on the other hand, doesn't SPECULATE at all! Data driven.
Instead of shouting into the wind "CUT CUT CUT", Messrs. Dutta / El Erian, and a cast of thousands would be better served expending energy lobbying Congress to legislate changes on how the FED operates. (That is, of course, if they want the FED to SPECULATE. Be careful what you wish for!)
What a coincidence! Didn't one of the Presidential candidates say he would work to CHANGE how the FED operates. What happened when the candidate everyone hates but we love his policies talked about messin' with the FED the other day?
oh look, Dani is wearing Annmarie's pink blazer from yesterday. Or, more accurately, Dani is wearing Annmarie's pink blazer from the 6/25 show, which, if today is 6/26, then 6/25 was yesterday. But if today is 6/24, then Dani is wearing Annmarie's pink blazer from TOMORROW.
Da, 3zyle,yn,jos,de,vynery,,dumyntka,eprogram.