@Blindjustice1776 in case you noticed the past 8 months its war in Palestine and this morning shit escalated and gold prices went really high, now there is a HUGE risk of a regional war in the Middle East and the demolish of the only zionist state in the world called Israel, I have a shitty feeling about this BTC run it might not go as expected just like the last covid season...
For everyone wondering where his new video is, Plan B posted on X that he’ll be sailing for the entire month of September. And will do a Sept/Oct video start of next month. Ie. He’s ignoring the charts this month, probably wise choice lol
Plan B: your work is great and the presentation is very didactic. I also find you honesty and integrity invaluable, and very rare in the space. My gratitude to You always. Take care!
Even though I am not a financial person, not even remotely related, I have been following you since 2020. I have been following the S2F model from then till now. I have read a lot of articles from your website. IMHO, this is your best attempt to explain all the things in your model to the common Joe out there including those strange dotted black curves on the bottom of the chart. I have aways wondered what they represented. For the first time, I now understand them. Thanks for explaining the S2F model to us as if we were 6 year olds. That shows you really know your stuff. Ride on!
I read that all the time, but it's nonsense. It just happened. The market is linked to reality and not an idealized calculation. There is also the opposite case, where positive events have been included in the chart, such as the approval of the ETF. There is no other reality, the price reflects reality and it does that very well, it reflects what Bitcoin is, a new asset class in the midst of adoption. It is normal that it has been banned or that new sellers have messed up.
Absolutely LOVE the longer form videos Plan B! Please consider this going forward. Its easier to keep up with your charts and views when you go a little slower. Absolute faviorite channel on YT right now!
Wauw! What a great explanation this time! Sometimes I had the feeling that I did not know what I was looking at, but much of that has really been clarified now. Thans very much Plan B. Loved this one!
Great Chart and explanation, but is your model also based on Exponential investment into and expansion of peoples portfolios in order to get it to those levels (above $100k) also?
Could you extend the model untill 2045 to see if the prediction Micheal Saylor made at the BTC conference is the same as what the model says? Would be fun to see
Thank you so much for taking your time. I have a question about the on chain analysis: Do you consider wallet rearrangements as bitcoin sold and bought, are you even able to spot the difference when a transaction moves between owned wallets verses actual movement to a different owner?
My only question on this is when has BTC been through this type of monetary tightening cycle? Short answer. . . . Never. BTC started after the monetary disaster of 2008/2009 which could easily invalidate this whole thesis
You're right, it hasn't. But more importantly we are already well into his type of monetary tightening cycle and a lot of people agree the tightening cycle is nearly over. Did it actually invalidate the whole thesis? I think not. Of course, nobody knows for sure what's going to happen but if you're going to be an investor or trader you need to be able to function in the face of uncertainty.
@@gandolfgrey5385 I don't think so. Markets are generally forward looking so we've already seen the market correction well in advance. Unless there's some unexpected black swan event the market has generally already priced in the known outcomes. But that's just my opinion based on 5 years of studying this market. I could be wrong. I wish you all the best with your thesis.
Thank you for the monthly update! ? On your BTC Realized Price Chart (or any of the charts really), does total supply factor into the data. You use 19 mil but most out their speculate there's only plus/minus 15 mil supply. Would a total supply of 15 mil alter any of your data points? Just curious. Love what you're doing for the community. Thanks again!
Thank you for the very clear explanation of the S2F models, when will the 200 EMA flatten out in the near future? Or will act more as an resistance level ?
4 million in the next cycle? I am optimistic that Bitcoin can achieve 10 million per coin in the future but 4 million in the next 4 years seems very unrealistic
If BTC hits $500,000 as predicted during this cycle then $4,000,000 will be confirmed. No one is predicting $500,000 in this cycle except Plan B. All I hear is $125,000-$200,000+ this cycle so $500,000 sounds unlikely right now, too. So let’s see where we go this cycle. 🙏🫡
@@I_have_Aquestionhey man, what about Market Cap? If you want to see the bitcoin reach price of 500k, the capitalisation of this coin must be at least 5trillion, it means FIVE TIMES BIGGER, it's simple maths! Of course every youtouber will make the highest prediction, to get your likes, but what about actually using the brain?
@@TheBroLoungeaccording to PlanB, the growth should accelerate with each cycle, so it would do more Xx than the last time. I am personally not convinced about that, but there you go - that’s his prediction
As usual, great content and above all so clear where btc is heading, thanks ( weleens gedacht om is een keer de altcoin markt te analyseren als geheel , als dit gaat uiteraard) anyhow keep it going ❤
I watch your new videos on the 1st of every month. However, over the last two months, the content has become increasingly dull and fails to address obvious mismatches with previous trends. Specifically, you avoid discussing the differing trends of the red points compared to previous cycles. The fact that red circles remain flat and aren't taking off like in other cycles is a significant indicator of a different pattern. Instead of pushing a specific narrative, let's acknowledge the reality and start discussing why this cycle is different.
Lol u serious? He missed the 2021 prediction by a whopping 40K then just adjusted the log chart to fit his narrative 🤣 I respect the guy but to say he's been "pretty accurate" is a massive stretch
@@wustachemax is it? I don’t think so. He explains the stock to flow as a model not a science. Apart from that one cycle which included Covid ,china banning and the collapse of ftx I’d say he’s done a pretty good job to date. If those catalysts had not of happened I think that 100k would have been pretty close. I also think that if his stock to flow model proves correct this time round people will be eating a lot of humble pie and will acknowledge those black swan factors looking back
Yeah def an exception, not only FTX and china miners but also the covid pandemic. He’s mentioned this in previous videos aswell, so thats all I can think of as to why it was an exception. 👍
Absolutely amazing the model is the best I have ever seen and in 20 years everybody will realise that you have been right since the beginning. Thanks for sharing and prospecting amazing long term possibilities 💪💪💪💪💪💪
в прошлый раз не дошли до 100 000 потому что много народа этого ждали и крупные игроки это видели, и не хотели им дать заработать, вот и вся история. В этот раз может быть по другому
Regarding the Bitcoin Market Cycles graph, what makes you think we have been in a bull market while the price has been flat for months? I understand that you don't want to share the formula, but maybe you can explain your rationale?
![ALLY - OH MY! [ REACTION ] 'Amarin Nitibhon' #ALLY_OHMY #ALLY #allynitibhon #แอลลี่](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/nX9qpHjVfbQ/mqdefault.jpg)
Please like, share, SUBSCRIBE, because it helps people to find my content!
Great content. I would be very curious to hear your take on the ETF's and the impact they are having on the market as a whole.
@@peterpoka1217 let him continue w the monthly updates using the only data he has ever used. Its brilliant.
@Blindjustice1776 in case you noticed the past 8 months its war in Palestine and this morning shit escalated and gold prices went really high, now there is a HUGE risk of a regional war in the Middle East and the demolish of the only zionist state in the world called Israel, I have a shitty feeling about this BTC run it might not go as expected just like the last covid season...
$Jizzlord to the moon 🚀🚀🚀🚀
thank you for sharing sir.
For everyone wondering where his new video is, Plan B posted on X that he’ll be sailing for the entire month of September. And will do a Sept/Oct video start of next month. Ie. He’s ignoring the charts this month, probably wise choice lol
Thnx for update
Came here to find my answer. Thanks!
Thanks. Up
Yeah, I was looking for this also! Thanks…
Thank you!
I am a simple man. PlanB shows up on my TH-cam homepage and I click and watch it to the end. Nicely done sir!
Yawn @@evilmike900
My favorite video of the month
Same.
Facts .
Me too
Don’t explain yourself to anyone. You’re loved and followed by thousands. Thanks for this.
I'm really glad he explained it 😅
its about Data not your love
@@OldmanCrypto100 found the guy that missed BTC
@@OldmanCrypto100 not what yo mamma said.
Plan B: your work is great and the presentation is very didactic. I also find you honesty and integrity invaluable, and very rare in the space. My gratitude to You always. Take care!
Let the FOMO commence !! Thanks for the update PlanB
I love the more thorough and in-depth review of the models! 👍
Plan A buy bitcoin
Plan B, never sell
Step B study bitcoin
Plan A Plan B
Plan B, buy more Bitcoin 😂
Plan C. Sell all your assets including your house and invest it all on Bitcoin
I don't entirely agree with your analysis all the time but your content and style has secured me as a dedicated listener. Keep up the good work!
Thank God, it’s a new month and PlanB is back on YT. Thanks PlanB 🎉🎉🎉🎉
Even though I am not a financial person, not even remotely related, I have been following you since 2020. I have been following the S2F model from then till now. I have read a lot of articles from your website. IMHO, this is your best attempt to explain all the things in your model to the common Joe out there including those strange dotted black curves on the bottom of the chart. I have aways wondered what they represented. For the first time, I now understand them. Thanks for explaining the S2F model to us as if we were 6 year olds. That shows you really know your stuff. Ride on!
The most credible BTC analysis channel by far!
I think that without Chinese ban and ftx not transmitting orders, bitcoin would have gone through 100k in 2021
China bans have come and gone many times since 2013 and has 0 impact on Bitcoin
& Corona V
That is correct.
I read that all the time, but it's nonsense. It just happened. The market is linked to reality and not an idealized calculation. There is also the opposite case, where positive events have been included in the chart, such as the approval of the ETF. There is no other reality, the price reflects reality and it does that very well, it reflects what Bitcoin is, a new asset class in the midst of adoption. It is normal that it has been banned or that new sellers have messed up.
Going to zero
the most awaited video at the beginning of each month, thank you Sir!
I see Plan B. I click.
Same here
We all do buddy. We all do.
Not a good sign...PlanB still has no update for the beginning of September. Is the model starting to go in a different direction?
You are the man, nobody got closer to the price of BTC. Keep on with the good work 👍
Absolutely LOVE the longer form videos Plan B! Please consider this going forward. Its easier to keep up with your charts and views when you go a little slower. Absolute faviorite channel on YT right now!
Plan B … where is September’s data?? Don’t stop, the community needs your input!!
WHERE ARE YOU?
I follow and appreciate your Plan, wish your health and wealth ❤
This is my preferate video of the month.
You give a great value to your followers and there is no need to explain yourself. Thanks very much
Me end of each month: "Yes, Plan B video is coming" 😂💪🏻🙏🏻
Thank you Plan B 💥💯
Jouw uitleg geeft mij vertrouwen en rust. Keep up the good work!
my adhd addled brain, has such challenges paying attention his delivery method, but this best of the very best in BTC content ❤❤❤
Your content is great and we're all blessed to listen to your notions on the market.
No click bait or shilling here. Thank you for your honest opinion and explanation.
Wauw! What a great explanation this time! Sometimes I had the feeling that I did not know what I was looking at, but much of that has really been clarified now. Thans very much Plan B. Loved this one!
250k- 1,000000 this cycle, got it. Thanks Plan B
Be realistic.
@@dariuszwachnicki3684120k to 180k
@@dariuszwachnicki3684 You think we can't hit over 250k within the next 4 years? Have you been paying attention to what BTC can do?
If the bottom is $250K, I'll take it!
if you think btc can 5x-20x from here you are naive and will be left will full bags for the next bear market. Totally unrealistic.
Bedankt voor de tijd en moeite! Zeer informatief.
No PlanB this month?? What's up with PlanB
No plan B for september??
Where is the plan b video this month?
I like your stock-to-flow model and appreciate your level headed commentary focused on the long term view.
Very impressive that you created the model so early with so few days, and it predicted so well. Congratulations, and thanks for sharing!
Is there ever going to be another post? 🤔
Eagerly awaiting the September 2024 Plan B analysis. Hope Mr. B is doing well.
Where ir the september video?
Great Chart and explanation, but is your model also based on Exponential investment into and expansion of peoples portfolios in order to get it to those levels (above $100k) also?
Oct 1st where are you? 😢
so? should I buy right now or should I wait?
PLANB where are you it is already 14 Sept and we want to hear from you please. No Sept update?
My BTC journey started in 2019. Your voice has been a guide and assurance when the going was extremely difficult..thank you.❤
This is what I’ve been waiting for!
What do you use to hold your bitcoin? I have recently started buying and holding on a ledger nano X
Could you extend the model untill 2045 to see if the prediction Micheal Saylor made at the BTC conference is the same as what the model says? Would be fun to see
No one came here for fun, except of you, and the people that taps the hamster
@@THEBEST-yv7zx Okay bro sure lol. No one asked for your opinion incel🙏☠️💯
Logarithmic, meaning the price doesn't change
Also, by now. The supply of bitcoin is already at 96-99% so what's the few% difference?
When Analysis for September :)?
where's septembers vid brotha?!
Thank you so much for taking your time. I have a question about the on chain analysis: Do you consider wallet rearrangements as bitcoin sold and bought, are you even able to spot the difference when a transaction moves between owned wallets verses actual movement to a different owner?
My only question on this is when has BTC been through this type of monetary tightening cycle? Short answer. . . . Never. BTC started after the monetary disaster of 2008/2009 which could easily invalidate this whole thesis
Tightening cycle is over. Fed has been offloading assets and will start stimulus soon
You're right, it hasn't. But more importantly we are already well into his type of monetary tightening cycle and a lot of people agree the tightening cycle is nearly over.
Did it actually invalidate the whole thesis? I think not.
Of course, nobody knows for sure what's going to happen but if you're going to be an investor or trader you need to be able to function in the face of uncertainty.
@@ExpensivePizza that may be true but the market correction from the tightening cycle has yet to hit. Which is what could invalidate the thesis
@@gandolfgrey5385 I don't think so. Markets are generally forward looking so we've already seen the market correction well in advance. Unless there's some unexpected black swan event the market has generally already priced in the known outcomes.
But that's just my opinion based on 5 years of studying this market. I could be wrong. I wish you all the best with your thesis.
Thank you for the monthly update!
? On your BTC Realized Price Chart (or any of the charts really), does total supply factor into the data. You use 19 mil but most out their speculate there's only plus/minus 15 mil supply.
Would a total supply of 15 mil alter any of your data points? Just curious. Love what you're doing for the community. Thanks again!
I got a bad feeling about this bull run
Another great plan b video
Given the current drama, perhaps a higher frequency of coverage/input?
Where is September?
Thank you for the very clear explanation of the S2F models, when will the 200 EMA flatten out in the near future? Or will act more as an resistance level ?
4 million in the next cycle? I am optimistic that Bitcoin can achieve 10 million per coin in the future but 4 million in the next 4 years seems very unrealistic
Price is non linear so it is possible
If BTC hits $500,000 as predicted during this cycle then $4,000,000 will be confirmed. No one is predicting $500,000 in this cycle except Plan B. All I hear is $125,000-$200,000+ this cycle so $500,000 sounds unlikely right now, too.
So let’s see where we go this cycle. 🙏🫡
@@I_have_Aquestionhey man, what about Market Cap? If you want to see the bitcoin reach price of 500k, the capitalisation of this coin must be at least 5trillion, it means FIVE TIMES BIGGER, it's simple maths! Of course every youtouber will make the highest prediction, to get your likes, but what about actually using the brain?
Btc hit 22x off the bottom 2021 cycle. Why would it do more X’s off the bottom this cycle?
@@TheBroLoungeaccording to PlanB, the growth should accelerate with each cycle, so it would do more Xx than the last time. I am personally not convinced about that, but there you go - that’s his prediction
If, in general, we stay above this 5Months Realized Price, does it mean that need to hold for at least 5 months to have a good chance of profit?
Thanks Plan B 💯
Thanks for everything you are doing Sir PB - is there another episode coming in early September please?
Finally clearly understand the logs and the colors 🎉
Thanks man! But which chart do you think is more like a prediction rather than a fitting analysis, except for the S2F model of course.
One of my Favourite voice with favourite topic
As usual, great content and above all so clear where btc is heading, thanks ( weleens gedacht om is een keer de altcoin markt te analyseren als geheel , als dit gaat uiteraard) anyhow keep it going ❤
I watch your new videos on the 1st of every month. However, over the last two months, the content has become increasingly dull and fails to address obvious mismatches with previous trends. Specifically, you avoid discussing the differing trends of the red points compared to previous cycles. The fact that red circles remain flat and aren't taking off like in other cycles is a significant indicator of a different pattern. Instead of pushing a specific narrative, let's acknowledge the reality and start discussing why this cycle is different.
That's interesting, what are your thoughts on this cycle?
Hoi Ik mis je video van september. Misschien op vakantie? Ik ben erg benieuwd naar je visie op de bitcoin. Hopelijk tot heel snel 😀😀
Legendary voice
📈⏳🚀
I really look forward to your videos and appreciate that you took some extra time to explain the models and charts this time. Keep up the great work!
I think his data is off thats why no video. 😬😅
Brother! Some ppl say we will see 48 k BtC soon is it possible?
Dank voor de inspiratie!
With larger market cap like 5 Trillion, do we still have high volatility?
You don’t need to explain yourself to people. You’ve been pretty accurate to date 🤘
Lol u serious? He missed the 2021 prediction by a whopping 40K then just adjusted the log chart to fit his narrative 🤣 I respect the guy but to say he's been "pretty accurate" is a massive stretch
@@wustachemax is it? I don’t think so. He explains the stock to flow as a model not a science. Apart from that one cycle which included Covid ,china banning and the collapse of ftx I’d say he’s done a pretty good job to date. If those catalysts had not of happened I think that 100k would have been pretty close. I also think that if his stock to flow model proves correct this time round people will be eating a lot of humble pie and will acknowledge those black swan factors looking back
You audio kept breaking down for some reason. Something to look into if you can.
Hash rate jumped perhaps but the BTC price is nose diving right now!
Bullish divergent 😁
That aged well...😅
Useful information!! Very clear explanation , thanks for sharing. Very slick! Awesome
Here before the bots
Good job! Thanks for explaining the charts to me again. I never understood the bottom part of your stock to flow. Very insightful 👍
Thank you for the detailed explanation about what your S2F model represents.
Algorithm pushed this video again in lack of any better content and I watched it, again.
I'm sure Satoshi would be proud of you, and that there are still people with such a cypherpunk attitude in 2024!
Bedankt voor de video. Volgende graag in het Nederlands, dat is makkelijker te volgen 😀
What is your opinion about the cycle top 2021, was that a strange exception from the trend as it did not reach 100k due FTX and china miners ban?
Yeah def an exception, not only FTX and china miners but also the covid pandemic. He’s mentioned this in previous videos aswell, so thats all I can think of as to why it was an exception. 👍
As every month I was looking forward to you analysis! Thanks a lot again and again!
appreciate your time, thanks
Absolutely amazing the model is the best I have ever seen and in 20 years everybody will realise that you have been right since the beginning. Thanks for sharing and prospecting amazing long term possibilities 💪💪💪💪💪💪
"250k-1M" get real man. Ridiculous numbers. Sub 100k top more real.
hahahaha, I love the skepticism
Best Bitcoin low time preference view hands down , I'm here every month.
PSA: September TH-cam video will be merged with October - Plan B
The only BTC video people should watch.
Hi❤😊thank you for the update😊
We see a new Plan B video, we smash 'like', and watch all of it! 😎 👍
в прошлый раз не дошли до 100 000 потому что много народа этого ждали и крупные игроки это видели, и не хотели им дать заработать, вот и вся история. В этот раз может быть по другому
А чтобы самим заработать сделали 2 пика, на первом разгрузились, потом купили в 2 раза дешевле и еще раз разгрузились на 70 000
Для них получилось как будто биткоин был больше 100 000
Сейчас много народу сидят в альткоинах, поэтому они не растут и расти не будут в этом цикле
Regarding the Bitcoin Market Cycles graph, what makes you think we have been in a bull market while the price has been flat for months? I understand that you don't want to share the formula, but maybe you can explain your rationale?
Thank you very much for your work!
Amazing to see the future in this year, I don’t miss any news from plan B 🎉
Appreciated.
No monthly video for september??
Getting crushed right now, -25% my portfolio, sweating lol
Me to bro. Hang in there.
@@chr0nosIRL yea very tough but we can make it
@@chr0nosIRLand now up again