Guesstimate - Number of ACs sold in India/year - For job interviews - from CAT 100%iler, IIMA Alumna
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 14 มิ.ย. 2024
- Timestamps:
0:00 Introduction
1:05 Guesstimate Q
1:22 Basic Approach
13:27 Next Guesstimate Q
Guesstimates are helpful for a lot of job interviews which want to test your problem solving skills, like marketing, Product management, consulting and lot more. Solving guesstimates helps you in structured thinking, which reflects well in any interview.
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Assuming total Population to be 135 Crores and
No.of marriages = New + remmariages(post divorce and such sort)
Assumptions for New marriages: Age group of 21-27 yrs looks to get married and % of total population of this age group being 15% and out of this age group approx 15% people gets married
So new marriages= 135*0.15*0.15*0.5(a marriage is consitute of male and female)=1.4 Crore
Remarriages: % of people in 30-55 yrs being 25% and % divorce rate being 1%
Remarriages= 135*0.25*0.01*0.5=.17 Crores
So total marriages= 1.4+.17 ~ 1.6 Crore marriages
If any mistake, please clarify. Thanks
Your initial part is right, after that it is confusing.
Why will only 15% people get married out of marriageable age?
Also we are asking yearly marriage - not everyone gets married in 1 year.
Number of weddings in India / year = 15 million(approx)
Yes mam ; bring some more video on guesstimate ; this one is amazing too . Thanks again .
Dude where's the elimination factor for the cold areas. Why would a person in Shimla buy an AC?
U don't need to go this deep I think
Great video. Keep up the good work 👍🏻
Awesome explanation... Plz make a video *"Marketing Concepts" basics* at least for Marketing & Consultant position interview
@Chhavi Gupta In my Interview, I was cross questioned a lot when I segmented further on the basis of income group like 1:2:4:3 of Upper: Upper Middle: Middle: Lower, I couldn't justify why I took that ratio as a fact, Could you justify that if I'm asked the same in another interview basically how to justify the ratios that you mentioned in the fact sheet be it Rural : Urban= 7:3 or Poor:Middle:Rich etc. ?
Thanks for consideration.
Generally you won't need to justify it. You can say like, BPL in India is 20% - so that's a fact.
Some things are facts and you've to sound confident in interview to say, this is the approximate ratio for Indian population.
@@chhavihere Hi @chhavi can you please help me with no of weddings per year - i took the average life span of 80 Years and Population 1.25billion then divided population in segments as follows:
0-10yrs---- 10% = 1.25cr of these 0% get married= 0 NIl
10-20-------10% = 1.25cr Of these 1% get married = 125,000 Ignored
20-40-------40% = 35cr 70% get married = 35 cr = 35cr/50*
40-50-------20% = 06cr 30% get married = 6 cr = 6cr/ 35*
50-60-------10% = 1.25cr 1% get married = 125,000 = Ignored
60-80-------10% = 1.25cr 1% get married = 125,000 = ignored
* - I have divided 35cr by 50 because they get married once in remaining lifespan of 50 years. Done similarly for 6cr. The total figure further DIVIDED by 2 since to avoid double counting. The final ans i get is in only 50 lacs or so.
Please can u or someone tell me where am i going wrong?
It's fantastic, Kindly upload more videos...
To estimate the increase in market of ACs at the end of 10 years, what if we divide population age-wise , suppose say today 200mn people are in the age group 10-20 years. The same will be in the age group 20-30 years after 10 years and a fraction among them will be able to buy AC and that's what is the reason behind market growth right? And so we can estimate growth using this number, can we? Please guide
This is brilliantly explained!
Very clear! Thanks
Thanks alot mam for this video . i was actually searching for some content to learn 'guesstimate' & i got it at the right time . Thanks alot again .
Excellent approach :)
Thanks a lot mam for helping us i am also a cat aspirant and your journey motivate me a lot
Doesn't this approach take 1 AC per person of population? It should be divided by average family size, right ?
Have done it for number of households only
15 crore weddings per year
Assumption : Age group ( above 18 years old and leas than 50 years old)
I we can also include the Ac's at different shops and Small offices..
Please reply and tell me what is your opinion about it.
Mam you said about the 2 approaches . just confirming once again ; the 2 approaches are top-down or bottom-up ; right ? & you said we can confirm which approach we can follow with our interviewer . So does that mean we'll directly ask him/her about which approach we should follow or just take his/her suggestions after explaining both our approaches ?
Kindly clarify this & sorry 4 so many questions . i really want to be clear about it ; so asking . TIA .
Never ask anything directly to the interviewer. Please join my live Q&A session this Saturday 6 PM for all questions :)
@@chhavihere ok mam will surely join that session & ask you all my doubts there
How to form the formula in the second step for different guesstimates?
Please let me know if this approach is correct:
I took the population at 1300M
Then I took half of it to count a marriage once so 650M
Then I took the age bracket of 16-55 which has 60% of the population(also including outliers who get married before 18 and after 50) Giving 390M
Then I considered that an average person gets married once in the span of 40 years hence 2.5% of 390M which is 9.5M
Close to the actual answer of about 10M
Yes that's a great approach! But maybe you should just consider upto age 35-40
Rest looks good! 😊
@@chhavihere Thanks a lot!
thank you so much
Really liked the video. can you make more videos on guesstimates?
I'll try!
Yes plz
Hey, absolutely loved the video! The number of weddings in India every year : 1.82 cr
Hi ..can you please do a guesstimate video on no. Of tennis balls in a Boeing 747 flight
Do you not think it should also be considered on seasonal factor as well
You won't remove ACs in winter na
Please make videos on market forecasting
Thanks
No of weeding in India 7.5 million thanks a lot greatly explained ❣️
very nicely explained , one of the best videos on guess estimates i found on youtube
Mam one question ; how you guessed the population in rural & urban india to be 70% & 30% respectively ? Have you read it somewhere or you have just taken it as an assumption ?
There are few basic facts that one needs to remember. This is the approx urban rural ratio in India
Yes now the ratio is 35:65. (Urban:Rural).
Plus now rural (Tier 3) carry more distribution of electronics, due to easy accessibility, lower priced items and e-commerce.
@@arujbudhraja ok thanks for the info & yaa the explanation is correct too . After the e-commerce boom in India ; all the tier 3 city residents are able to get all sorts of products at their doorstep 👍 .
Can u help with no. Of ac sold in lucknow?
Good..!
Plz provide short procedure at least without values. Of your que "Wedding" in the description
See the comments, many people have tried 🙂
i tried the no. of weddings per year in india
approach:
population: 140 crore
say 5% wont marry, rounding it off to 10 crores
with 130 crores left: i divide into 3 categories as [0-20, 20-30(marriageable), 30-80] considering the declining average age of humans(upper limit as 80 years)
i take 15% for the 20-30 range, 20% 0-20, 60% for 30-80
Is this logic right ?
i.e. approx. 20 cr people in 20-30 range
out of these let average age of marriage be 25 years. so lets say all will marriages will be at 25 only. So can i divide these 20 cr by 10 because i'm selecting only one year out of 10 years(20-30) ?
if i do this i get 2 cr people
now with male to female ratio as 5:4, we get females and thus weddings as 0.88 crore or 88,00,000.
is this acceptable ?
ans. as per internet is 1,00,00,000
In rural I think we should consider villages who have access to electricity and those who don't, we can also consider substitutes as coolers are used more in dry climates.
We can do, time permitting. Before diving into further divisions confirm with your interviewer !
@@chhavihere Thank you.!
How did you get the number of households as per the calculations you are pretty far off from the correct number?
Mam any tip for solving LRDI quickly?
For LRDI prep: th-cam.com/video/LMcm3gKhAzM/w-d-xo.html
Try to solve easy questions in 8 mins, and as you understand more difficult ones try to solve them in 8-10 mins too, by repeat practice
no. of ac's: 1.7 cr per year
How
no of ac sold per year=total no of current ac/life of ac ?
I am not getting this explaination
If there are total 10 AC and life of each AC is 1 year. Then every year 10 will be the demand + growth.
If life is 2 years, every year 5 ACs will need replacement, that will be the demand
How to calculate commercial data?
Which commercial data?
@@chhavihere no. Of AC's sold in commercial market. Like you calculated the domestic use ones. What about used for commercial purposes? Like in hospital, malls etc
guesstimate number of taxis on a airport......pls help with this question
Try it out. Tell me how you approach
8 lakhs wedding per year
Why we did population/4 and 5?
To calculate number of households
@@chhavihere ok thanx
I have interviews in December, thank god I found your channel sister ❤️
🙂🙂
Can you clarify how to calculate "growth"?
Approx number based of GDP or inflation growth. I've taken 10% generally
@@chhavihere How did ou get .3 fpr middle class? can you show the math
These are all estimated guessed numbers, that you've to confirm with the interviewer
@@chhavihere hi, this should be 10% of total market size i.e. 5.9 cr right? You have taken 10% of replacements each year i.e. 59 lac...pl let me know if I am missing here anything
@@SujeetPathakHere good job, u r correct! keep it up
Great Explanation, Thanks for that. However, i think you miscalculated the total number of ACs while adding 5.7 and 0.7 which should be 6.4.
Cheers! Keep up the good work
45000?
Amazing video... So in coming live session.. I will ask: *No. Of helmets sold in India* and on *Healthcare analysis"*
You need to make detailed guesstimate video with calculation... No. Of weeding in india etc... We need at least 4-5 series
Yes, I've 2
Will make more
Ma'am, please make a video on "Estimate the number of A4 size paper sheets used in India per day"
18cr wedding/yr
Let me talk about the problem ..... Naah let me first brush my hair.
nice explanation though :-)
It's actually easy.
I got the ACs to be around 36 lakhs (market = 45 lakhs).
Regarding the weddings in India per year:-
-> Using Top Down approach:
135 cr population. Sex ratio in India is 108 male to 100 females. Or 52% male and 48% female.
48% of 135 cr = 64.8 cr. (65 cr).
Now youth population of India is 1/5th.
20% of 65 cr = 13 cr.
Now these are females from age of say 15-25.
If we assume one gets married at 25+ age, we reach answer / 10 (per age).
So 13 cr / 10 = 1.3 cr weddings in India per year.
(Actual answer = 10 million / 1 cr.)
I hope this qualifies as an answer.
It does. Good attempt :)
Only 1 advise. Do not take 52%-48%
Remember you can't generally use a calculator in an interview so this will be a very very tough mental math problem.
I have a doubt ; if we consider the females of age 25+ ; then we must take the 52 cr population NAA as you've considered all the youth population (13 Cr) to be of age 15-25 . So they're not eligible for marriage . So we should consider the other part of the population in our problem . Kindly clarify a bit on this .
Can you please explain why you divided by 10?
@aditya So here the assumption is everyone gets married at age 25.
If we take all women from 20-40 and say they get married once - so divide total # you get by 20 to get yearly marriages.
@@chhavihere If eligible women/men that year are 13 cr,how come only 10 percent of them marry? Is it correct to assume that everyone marries at 25 only?
Thank you for the amazing video
For the question
No of marriages :
Indian Population: 135 Cr
Assuming the population between 20-45 be 40% out of which 30-45 may account for negligible in terms of marriage
So taking 25--30 as 25%
so 33.75 Cr Population
Gender ratio be M: F 5:4
so no of females = 15 Cr
so assuming 80% of this 12Cr
You've to calculate per year!
Ma'am can you please next vidro on number of buildings / household in india...and I will work on this problem from scratch once going through your video again 🙂
I'll try to do that
@@chhavihere thank you so much ..from cat to career ...I am glad that I subscribed your channel !!!! Since my cat prep days
Thankyou 🙂
Do share it around 🙂