WARNING: As the channel grows (thank you all for that), there are more and more scammers impersonating me. The only thing I am selling is my Research Platform and Book sven-carlin-research-platform.teachable.com/p/stock-market-research-platform All that I do, the real links to my content are in the description of the video, I don't give out my Whatsapp number and I don't sell any Cryptocurrency related things! BE CAREFUL OUT THERE!
@Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. simple question do share loss it's whole value. ? If people sell irrational. Public only care about price not at fundamental of share in that case demad will drop as whole people sell share. In that situation how can a company share rise it's price?
@@whatsup3519 if a good company gets irrational hate (that happens a lot with Sven's picks) thats better; you buy more. Why do you need that the share rise its price? better if it stays lower ... at some point the company could start doing buybacks or giving dividends or both (buybacks and dividends will drive the price higher).
Not that I do not like your classy suit style, but it was genuinely refreshing to see a simple but nice pullover on you - shows confidence, makes you younger. Keep up the great work!
congratulations to 200.000 suscribers, well deserved! - i follow your channel and your stock market platform from day 1 - it is inspiring to see your development!🙌
The real yield curve inversion signal just occurred between 3 month and 10 year bonds and remember buy signals fail during beginning stages of a bear market just like sell signals fail during beginning stages of a bull market
A bubble can deflate without popping. There are sociological and technological phenomena which may severely limit the probability of a crash. There is a kind of hypernormalization of markets as well as in the minds of investors. It's part of that disappearing into the Simulacrum which Baudrillard talked about.
Back to basics: risk and reward.. in fact everything in life is about risk and reward, not only investing if you think about it.. It’s impossible to accurately predict the timing of a recession, it’s even futile.. now signs are pointing to a downturn, but who knows when and how deep the correction will be. The way to react depends on the attitude towards the market: do you think you can time the market or do you want to own a business able to ride the waves? Some people think they can time the market (not me) and others think about business’s return on invested capital and ability to grow… in my experience reward come from finding businesses that can compound over time, and the real risk is in bad business judgment or letting emotions drive portfolio decisions
Great video and advice Sven! Congratulations on the 200k! There is a lot of click bait on TH-cam about what happened yesterday (as always) and it is nice to have clear-headed guidance. It would be great if you could do some live videos as well! Have a great week!
Thanks for video Sven..are you ever looking at a PEG ratio ??.because some of the Pe’s can be justified if we have PEG less then 1 ...i know that this question is not regarding this video, but I would like to know your answer, what do you think about PEG..
I watched the recent interview with Grantham on Bloomberg . I didn’t find him to be alarmist in nature like a Peter Schiff video . Quite rational and level headed . But like the interviewer said the broken clock is right twice a day.
I would also prefer more frequent video reelases :) For example, i love the Guide To Markets 2022 video since there is lots of value but could image to have it split in serie of 2 or 3 videos. I also cant wait your Seritage valuation :)
It may be that Grantham has been wrong 40 out of 44 predictions, but what did the stock market look like at those times? It really looks like we are navigating in uncharted territory when It comes to high valuations...
I watch all your videos Sven, it's a lot of the same message which I don't mind as it keeps me focused on staying on point with my investments. As it's easy to get caught up in the big swings as of late, buying good quality stocks at a good valuation, selling off some of the profits when they get too high over their intrinsic values. And then buying back more when they drop again, has worked wonders for me & my wife, with less stress, while waiting for when the next recession hits. We do appreciate all that you're doing, as it's helping us digest all the BS that comes at us night & day. Thanks
@@Value-Investing yes it's crazy trying to preserve wealth in this environment! I went long a small amount of a china real estate ETF today. Hmm maybe I should examine the contents to be sure there is no levergrand inside. Are you hodl ing your Russia stocks?
Compounding in a straight line is Wonderful - On Paper. The Reality is IF you are fortunate (meaning extremely Lucky) to avoid a Crash - you can achieve a 10% compounded rate, Other than “luck” you won’t. Sorry to burst the Asset Bubble “happy talk” A more down to earth rate is 5-6%.
I agree Sven, in fact one could go as far as saying profit and risk are sort of the same thing. Just as there is a time-space continuum, there is a profit-risk continuum. Any profit made without taking this into account is called LUCK.
I know you might say have to be apart of the research platform or something but I support every yt vid and drop a thumbs up. Just can’t pay for the research platform right now.
hahaha, I looked deeper, and for me personally too much debt, so I prefer to find better. But, if they manage the debt, should do ok, that is the risk reward.
What about a core-satellite approach? Inexperienced investors by and large won't pick stocks (value/growth whatever) that well, so go passive. But if they can learn a good strategy to do so then start that as a satellite portfolio taking out equity from the core, particularly when the indexes have gone up?
+1 for live stock analysis. Or also live triage of lists of stocks - watching the filtering process you use to identify ones to spend more time analyzing.
Hi Sven - your general narrative is to not to try to time the market yet to optimize long term compounding rates meaning one needs to be prepared to sell before the crash snd get back in after? Please can you explain what your tactics are otherwise this is just blah blah
Hi Sven, it's nice to connect with you considering it's the first time reaching out. I'm a long time subscriber and follower and I highly appreciate your content and what you are doing for the community. I wanted to ask you somehow you are also investing in early stage companies? Please let me know. Regards, Cristian.
@@Value-Investing Yes. Very early stage :). It makes sense, I should have thought before asking that it's not in your range of investments. Thank you for your answer, Sven. I really appreciate it.
Dedpite what the quoted viewer said, Jeremy Grantham is spot on, and not a permabear. Watch his Bloomberg interview from "1 year ago". He says you can't call the exact timing and admits he called the Japanese bubble 2 years early.
Because its all psychology! Crashes happen because they take investors off guard. So risk increases when most are in the market when no one is talking about a crash them.
Volatility is the price to pay for being invested in the stock market, those that try to avoid it (market timing, choosing factors, facing too much idiosyncratic risk, keeping cash on a side waiting for an opportunity) will most likely (>90% likelihood) underperform. There is no way around it, empirical evidence is clear. Find your optimal asset allocation and stay put no matter what valuations say, you will overperform. Beating the market on a 30y time horizon is more difficult that becoming a professional footballer, the difference being luck is a more important factor when you invest and hold a huge chunk of idiosyncratic risk than when you play an skill game.
I have a question. What if a share use to have strong fundamentals, but what if it's price fall down rapidly! In that case u will say share with strong fundamentals will rise it's price in long run. How? What is the reason behind that? And what if company is profitable but share is falling down. Do share loss it's whole value if not why?
First, companies have fundementals, not "shares". If there are strong fundamentals but the stock is crashing, its probably because the valuation was silly high. That's what happens during bubbles. If you have reason to believe the forward P/E is great, then take advantage of the crash and buy the shares. If the forward P/E is still >30 or 50 or whatever then you really should ask yourself if the valuation makes sense.
@@gordo3582 @Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. simple question do share loss it's whole value. ? If people sell irrational. Public only care about price not at fundamental of share in that case demad will drop as whole people sell share. In that situation how can a company share rise it's price?
@@Value-Investing @Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. simple question do share loss it's whole value. ? If people sell irrational. Public only care about price not at fundamental of share in that case demad will drop as whole people sell share. In that situation how can a company share rise it's price?
My strong belief is that the pattern going forward was seen in March 2020, where precipitous declines are followed very shortly after by corresponding increases. People have seen what happens in those scenarios where they did not buy the dip, and they won’t let that happen again. The money has to go somewhere, and everyone knows the market, notwithstanding it’s volatility, is the best place to be.
It seems everyone these day are parroting investing maxims, without understanding the history or the intended meaning behind them. Thank you for clarifying.
From my point of view as a long term value investor, market crashes do not worry me(ok, maybe just a bit, but only because of the risk of indirect loss of profits for companies because of the cascade effects). Actually I find them to be a great investment oportunity. Regardless of the price movement, I will still own the same number of shares and I still get my dividends. If the "market's evaluation" of my portfolio drops 50%, but I still receive the same dividends that will still double my initial investment in 8 years... why should I care?
🗽 No crash, maybe a normal bear market... 🤔 My stock portfolio currently looks okay! I hold a lot of defensive shares. In addition commodities, energy and gold. .
I'm beginning to think the reason for these predictions is to keep retail investors out. The same as telling people not to buy the dip, so these wealthy investors can get there first. Even if there was a crash of 50%+ I don't think those deals would last long. Look what happened after the crash of 2020. Those cheap deals were snapped up and the market recovered to new heights. If anything crashes redistribute wealth by allowing smaller investors to buy at a discount. If you hold good stock in good companies long term you will make money, especially if you get dividends and reinvest them.
The crash after 2020 took trillions and trillions of dollars printed out of thin air and tossed into the economy to keep sheeple calm. With debt based currency it requires exponential borrowing and spending to pay the exponential interest also requires exponential population growth. All impossibilities. Good luck buying and holding nothing but digits on a screen
So you kind of end on a big if. Yeah, if you have bough companies that have good fundamentals, and bought them at a good price, you will be fine. But, what if you didn't do that? Price = value + demand. The demand is transitory, and is based on heard mentality. If it shifts, and you bought at that price, well you're screwed. And that's fine, but doing bull markets a lot of people get used to prices being inflated and start treating them as normal. A lot of people who bought good companies at terrible prices are going to have a rough time of it.
If you say that crash predictions are made to keep retail investors out, then by the same logic you could also say that the aim of hyping up other items is done in order to lure in retail investors to those (e.g. crypto, Tesla). I'm not sure it is so clear cut, and also, for this to work requires quite a lot of insider information.
I am proud of you! At least one rational among the many! Do respect the legends, but seriously are they saying that companies were profitable during 0% short term and 1.5% long term interest, but will fall short if the interest rates move to 1% (after 4 FED moves) and 3% long term treasury bonds. Other than the marginal cash flow deterioration from future projection, the valuation is almost the same. But seriously! Unless of course, they are saying the consumers are going bankrupt which is apparently not the case from various bank earnings reports.
If all businesses are exposed to market risk and nobody can know the timing of a crash, would it be reasonable to say the biggest risk is buying assets when they’re overvalued? or is it more sector- and business-specific risks? If your portfolio is filled with quality companies (low debt, high ROIC, strong moat) which aren’t overpriced relative to their intrinsic value (discounted sum of future cash flows x probabilities) what else do you do to optimize your risk/reward?
Have paused the video :) It's about: -Finding investments where the risks and rewards fit your personal goals/ life. -Buying (absolute) value no matter what will come. Hope I pass the 'SC Value exam'. Now back to the video :) Hmm... Not the precise 'two word answer' the teacher was looking for. But let's hope I'll still pass this test :D
I sold my 2 large holdings in index funds yesterday for these reasons alone. Risk of holding the S&P and the Nasdaq versus the reward of selling for a nice profit in the face of obvious headwinds. I also exited my positions in Russian businesses. Holding cash in these high inflationary times isn’t ideal either, but the notion of taking a 10% loss in purchasing power seems preferable then holding overvalued index and extremely volatile business positions. Thanks for the video and I will be patiently waiting stock analysis for possible opportunities in the future!
Very nice illustration of the impact of a crash on performance. Now, if people were to measure performance by the income yield of a portfolio instead of focusing on annual capital appreciation, things would be much easier. Like what a good landlord does focusing on the rent from properties and not on possible appreciation of assets. Capital appreciation depends on the fundamentals of the business but also on market sentiment, therefore it is a tainted metric. Real loss is when the income is reduced long term… Not when the price of the business goes down. Thinking this way helps to disconnect from the market (I did not even realize the index was down 7% this year before watching this video 😂)
I don't have time to sit around all day worrying about market crashes LOL, if it happens who gives a shit, just take advantage of the panic. Market crashes presents a lot of good investing opportunities if you know where to look and what to look for.
WARNING: As the channel grows (thank you all for that), there are more and more scammers impersonating me. The only thing I am selling is my Research Platform and Book sven-carlin-research-platform.teachable.com/p/stock-market-research-platform
All that I do, the real links to my content are in the description of the video, I don't give out my Whatsapp number and I don't sell any Cryptocurrency related things! BE CAREFUL OUT THERE!
@Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. simple question do share loss it's whole value. ? If people sell irrational. Public only care about price not at fundamental of share in that case demad will drop as whole people sell share. In that situation how can a company share rise it's price?
Looks good 👍
@@whatsup3519 if a good company gets irrational hate (that happens a lot with Sven's picks) thats better; you buy more. Why do you need that the share rise its price? better if it stays lower ... at some point the company could start doing buybacks or giving dividends or both (buybacks and dividends will drive the price higher).
Thanks i love the short format.
thanks!
Not that I do not like your classy suit style, but it was genuinely refreshing to see a simple but nice pullover on you - shows confidence, makes you younger. Keep up the great work!
I appreciate that
congratulations to 200.000 suscribers, well deserved! - i follow your channel and your stock market platform from day 1 - it is inspiring to see your development!🙌
Much appreciated!
Thank you Sven, very interesting analysis.
thanks!
6:42 Yeah, just avoid crashes. Why didn't I think of that.
????
The real yield curve inversion signal just occurred between 3 month and 10 year bonds and remember buy signals fail during beginning stages of a bear market just like sell signals fail during beginning stages of a bull market
thanks for sharing!
Sven looks great in casual. Keep doing so!
thanks, will do!
Thanks Sven
:-)
A bubble can deflate without popping. There are sociological and technological phenomena which may severely limit the probability of a crash. There is a kind of hypernormalization of markets as well as in the minds of investors. It's part of that disappearing into the Simulacrum which Baudrillard talked about.
thanks for sharing!
Super useful!
Glad to hear!
Good work. We like it. Keep so.
Thank you, I will
love the casual (dressing) style Sven! Keep it up!
Thank you! Will do!
penso il miglior video di quest anno su YT
grazie!
I did enjoyed your video ,Thanks Sven
thanks!
uuuh without the suit! casual friday kickin in. Bravo
:-))))
Back to basics: risk and reward.. in fact everything in life is about risk and reward, not only investing if you think about it.. It’s impossible to accurately predict the timing of a recession, it’s even futile.. now signs are pointing to a downturn, but who knows when and how deep the correction will be. The way to react depends on the attitude towards the market: do you think you can time the market or do you want to own a business able to ride the waves? Some people think they can time the market (not me) and others think about business’s return on invested capital and ability to grow… in my experience reward come from finding businesses that can compound over time, and the real risk is in bad business judgment or letting emotions drive portfolio decisions
yes!
It’s not about timing the market but time in the market
it is about time in good businesses creating value bought at a fair price!
Great video and advice Sven! Congratulations on the 200k! There is a lot of click bait on TH-cam about what happened yesterday (as always) and it is nice to have clear-headed guidance.
It would be great if you could do some live videos as well! Have a great week!
Thanks!
Sven držiš li polyus dionicu još? Gdje je najbolje kupiti ju Rusija, London ili USA tržište?
:-)
nice outfit there, feeling comfy recently :D
Thanks! 😊
Thanks for video Sven..are you ever looking at a PEG ratio ??.because some of the Pe’s can be justified if we have PEG less then 1 ...i know that this question is not regarding this video, but I would like to know your answer, what do you think about PEG..
no, I am not looking at ratios, I am looking at businesses and my own valuations th-cam.com/video/VfSGV2AFNko/w-d-xo.html
Sven is so confident in investments that he sold his suit to buy more stocks.
Jokes aside nice jumper and thanks for the great video as usual! :D
:-)))))
I watched the recent interview with Grantham on Bloomberg . I didn’t find him to be alarmist in nature like a Peter Schiff video . Quite rational and level headed . But like the interviewer said the broken clock is right twice a day.
just focusing on the risk and reward, that is it!
Grantham is a climate alarmist.... which makes me start to doubt his judgement
Again Fantastic video very informative and to be honest probably help stop people panicking if they listen.
Thanks Sven.
thanks!
Yes Live and tell us which stocks are safe
:-)
I would also prefer more frequent video reelases :) For example, i love the Guide To Markets 2022 video since there is lots of value but could image to have it split in serie of 2 or 3 videos. I also cant wait your Seritage valuation :)
Noted!
It may be that Grantham has been wrong 40 out of 44 predictions, but what did the stock market look like at those times? It really looks like we are navigating in uncharted territory when It comes to high valuations...
it is always uncharted territory from some perspective :-) that is what makes it interesting!
I watch all your videos Sven, it's a lot of the same message which I don't mind as it keeps me focused on staying on point with my investments. As it's easy to get caught up in the big swings as of late, buying good quality stocks at a good valuation, selling off some of the profits when they get too high over their intrinsic values. And then buying back more when they drop again, has worked wonders for me & my wife, with less stress, while waiting for when the next recession hits. We do appreciate all that you're doing, as it's helping us digest all the BS that comes at us night & day. Thanks
thanks!
I like the type of content
thanks!
Hi Sven! What about gold & silver as a hedge against bad economic times? Gold did have a 10% return since 2000 so it follows the market nicely.
How about use your mom to hedge against bad economic times
@@evanchen703 We used yours instead. Have a great day A hole! :)
too much noise in gold! th-cam.com/video/jZ_QBJ-DpuA/w-d-xo.html
6500 years of value is good enough for me :)
Sven, I had to stop the video to comment: this is a great video!
Ok, i can finish it now
thanks!
Congrats on 200k! :-)
thanks!
Hey sven when will stonks go up again
hahahahaha, who knows!
*people always confuse a 1)drawdown vs. 2)correction vs. 3) crash*
:-)
Very good content.
Thanks Sven.
My pleasure!
My tip was Investing is about buying undervalued and hold long.
:-)
Great Analysis
thanks!
now do the compounding with negative yields.
that would hurt too much :-)))
@@Value-Investing yes it's crazy trying to preserve wealth in this environment!
I went long a small amount of a china real estate ETF today. Hmm maybe I should examine the contents to be sure there is no levergrand inside.
Are you hodl ing your Russia stocks?
Actually Grantham does call crashes over and over, and has usually been wrong. So you should mention that as well.
Thanks for pointing out!
Compounding in a straight line is Wonderful - On Paper.
The Reality is IF you are fortunate (meaning extremely Lucky) to avoid a Crash - you can achieve a 10% compounded rate,
Other than “luck” you won’t.
Sorry to burst the Asset Bubble “happy talk”
A more down to earth rate is 5-6%.
yes, for the average person, this is not a channel for averages.
Switching it up from the shirt and jacket Sven, I like it
good to know!
I agree Sven, in fact one could go as far as saying profit and risk are sort of the same thing. Just as there is a time-space continuum, there is a profit-risk continuum. Any profit made without taking this into account is called LUCK.
:-)
Hi Sven, what is your thought on Berry stock?
I know you might say have to be apart of the research platform or something but I support every yt vid and drop a thumbs up. Just can’t pay for the research platform right now.
hahaha, I looked deeper, and for me personally too much debt, so I prefer to find better. But, if they manage the debt, should do ok, that is the risk reward.
What about a core-satellite approach? Inexperienced investors by and large won't pick stocks (value/growth whatever) that well, so go passive. But if they can learn a good strategy to do so then start that as a satellite portfolio taking out equity from the core, particularly when the indexes have gone up?
??????
Always enjoy
thanks!
Do you ever buy growth stocks like PLTR, apps, Sofi, xpro, INMB, Crbu ? Just wondering. Really enjoy your vids.
no:-)
Thanks Sven. Good to be engaged with your viewers.
thanks, will do more!
I love these format of videos. Thanks
Glad you like them!
+1 for live stock analysis. Or also live triage of lists of stocks - watching the filtering process you use to identify ones to spend more time analyzing.
thanks! wILL DO!
Hi Sven - your general narrative is to not to try to time the market yet to optimize long term compounding rates meaning one needs to be prepared to sell before the crash snd get back in after? Please can you explain what your tactics are otherwise this is just blah blah
no, I just optimize for risk and reward depending on opportunities. I am mostly 100% invested.
Hi ! Do you use options to generate income and minimize loss on your stock picking ? Thx
I don't do that, at least not yet
Yes please! Live stock analysis would be great!
thanks, will do!
Hello Sven,
I like shorter videos, max 10 min , not to many, not to few, 2 -3 week , but whatever is ok for you is excelent for me. Thank you :)
Noted!
Hi Sven, it's nice to connect with you considering it's the first time reaching out. I'm a long time subscriber and follower and I highly appreciate your content and what you are doing for the community.
I wanted to ask you somehow you are also investing in early stage companies?
Please let me know. Regards, Cristian.
without revenues and profits? Not really my cup of tea!
@@Value-Investing Yes. Very early stage :). It makes sense, I should have thought before asking that it's not in your range of investments. Thank you for your answer, Sven. I really appreciate it.
I watched a recent Jeremy Grantham interview and he stated that he was heavily short S&P 500 so of course he is calling for a crash.
thanks for sharing!
Sage advice
thanks!
Thank you for the video Sven! Have a great day
thanks for your comment!
7:55 on a log scale, we're pretty much on the trend line in 2022. So on this basis, should we expect average returns over the coming years?
we are not even close to the trend line :) this is how it complicates things, it is also about the length of the chart
Guess I will be buying SPLX after a crash until next risk on.
thanks for sharing!
Dedpite what the quoted viewer said, Jeremy Grantham is spot on, and not a permabear. Watch his Bloomberg interview from "1 year ago". He says you can't call the exact timing and admits he called the Japanese bubble 2 years early.
yes, it is about the risk!
I answered 1st thing is owning good business and 2nd thing balancing risk and reward. So I think that counts as a good answer also.
yes it does!
Because its all psychology! Crashes happen because they take investors off guard. So risk increases when most are in the market when no one is talking about a crash them.
yep!
I got it right, Dr. Sven! Risk-reward is key! It's our investing mantra! 😄
thanks!
Thanks for another great educational video Sven!
my pleasure!
Sven, in your yearly subscription course. Do you show your portfolio and buys and sells or no?
In short yes
yes, everything is shown
Volatility is the price to pay for being invested in the stock market, those that try to avoid it (market timing, choosing factors, facing too much idiosyncratic risk, keeping cash on a side waiting for an opportunity) will most likely (>90% likelihood) underperform. There is no way around it, empirical evidence is clear. Find your optimal asset allocation and stay put no matter what valuations say, you will overperform. Beating the market on a 30y time horizon is more difficult that becoming a professional footballer, the difference being luck is a more important factor when you invest and hold a huge chunk of idiosyncratic risk than when you play an skill game.
there is a way, Saturday video coming :-)
Love it as always
You're the best!
live stock analysis would be fantastic! but this content is also amazing!
thanks!
The jumper suits you.
thanks!
Sven. Looking pretty casual. Heads I win tails I do not loss too much!!
for me it is win win
@@Value-Investing me to but it does not always happen. I, like you try never to break Uncle Warren’s rule #1.
Time in the market > timing the market.
:-) Time in good businesses bought at a fair price, if I might correct you!
@@Value-Investing absolutely correct.
I have a question. What if a share use to have strong fundamentals, but what if it's price fall down rapidly! In that case u will say share with strong fundamentals will rise it's price in long run. How? What is the reason behind that? And what if company is profitable but share is falling down. Do share loss it's whole value if not why?
First, companies have fundementals, not "shares". If there are strong fundamentals but the stock is crashing, its probably because the valuation was silly high. That's what happens during bubbles. If you have reason to believe the forward P/E is great, then take advantage of the crash and buy the shares. If the forward P/E is still >30 or 50 or whatever then you really should ask yourself if the valuation makes sense.
the company should make money over time, that is the driver
@@gordo3582 @Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. simple question do share loss it's whole value. ? If people sell irrational. Public only care about price not at fundamental of share in that case demad will drop as whole people sell share. In that situation how can a company share rise it's price?
@@Value-Investing @Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. simple question do share loss it's whole value. ? If people sell irrational. Public only care about price not at fundamental of share in that case demad will drop as whole people sell share. In that situation how can a company share rise it's price?
My strong belief is that the pattern going forward was seen in March 2020, where precipitous declines are followed very shortly after by corresponding increases. People have seen what happens in those scenarios where they did not buy the dip, and they won’t let that happen again. The money has to go somewhere, and everyone knows the market, notwithstanding it’s volatility, is the best place to be.
what money, the money is gone as the price doesn't cover it
It seems everyone these day are parroting investing maxims, without understanding the history or the intended meaning behind them.
Thank you for clarifying.
happy to hear that!
Strategy:
Buy
Hold
Buy some more
Everyone wants a market crash to buy discount stocks, but whenever it happens they panic and don’t do anything.
:-)
Let's get it
:-)
Wise as ever! thanks for the great advices Sven! :D
My pleasure!
the stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.
absolutely!
From my point of view as a long term value investor, market crashes do not worry me(ok, maybe just a bit, but only because of the risk of indirect loss of profits for companies because of the cascade effects). Actually I find them to be a great investment oportunity. Regardless of the price movement, I will still own the same number of shares and I still get my dividends. If the "market's evaluation" of my portfolio drops 50%, but I still receive the same dividends that will still double my initial investment in 8 years... why should I care?
absolutely, the key is to compound long-term, despite the ups and downs!
It s not easy finding companies with a 12.5% yield
@@vectorsignorelli you can find quite a few, but you only need a 9.1% yield to double your investment in 8 years.(if you reinvest the dividends)
Good stuffs! That is why I always go with low risk high reward stocks like GME and AMC!
hahahahaha
Lol!
“Investing is about the present value of all future cash flow” was what I was gonna guess. I probably need to watch more of your videos!
that is also a great answer, then just add the risk and reward of future cash flows!
I enjoy this content so much! Thanks Sven!
thanks!
🗽 No crash, maybe a normal bear market... 🤔
My stock portfolio currently looks okay! I hold a lot of defensive shares. In addition commodities, energy and gold.
.
thanks for sharing!
oh live Sven would be a treat!
great to hear!
live stock analysis is a good idea Sven!
Glad you think so!
Sven, only one question in this crazy market situation: where is the blazer?!
hahahahhahaha
Sven, when u will do a video about how to identify a risk in a company? Debt, cashflow decline, losses, etc
yes, avoid those things :-)
I'm beginning to think the reason for these predictions is to keep retail investors out. The same as telling people not to buy the dip, so these wealthy investors can get there first. Even if there was a crash of 50%+ I don't think those deals would last long. Look what happened after the crash of 2020. Those cheap deals were snapped up and the market recovered to new heights. If anything crashes redistribute wealth by allowing smaller investors to buy at a discount. If you hold good stock in good companies long term you will make money, especially if you get dividends and reinvest them.
thanks for sharing!
The crash after 2020 took trillions and trillions of dollars printed out of thin air and tossed into the economy to keep sheeple calm. With debt based currency it requires exponential borrowing and spending to pay the exponential interest also requires exponential population growth. All impossibilities. Good luck buying and holding nothing but digits on a screen
So you kind of end on a big if. Yeah, if you have bough companies that have good fundamentals, and bought them at a good price, you will be fine. But, what if you didn't do that? Price = value + demand. The demand is transitory, and is based on heard mentality. If it shifts, and you bought at that price, well you're screwed. And that's fine, but doing bull markets a lot of people get used to prices being inflated and start treating them as normal. A lot of people who bought good companies at terrible prices are going to have a rough time of it.
@@yaarghmaargh that's why you have to look for those fundamentals and think outside the box. In this world you have to fend for yourself.
If you say that crash predictions are made to keep retail investors out, then by the same logic you could also say that the aim of hyping up other items is done in order to lure in retail investors to those (e.g. crypto, Tesla). I'm not sure it is so clear cut, and also, for this to work requires quite a lot of insider information.
I am proud of you! At least one rational among the many!
Do respect the legends, but seriously are they saying that companies were profitable during 0% short term and 1.5% long term interest, but will fall short if the interest rates move to 1% (after 4 FED moves) and 3% long term treasury bonds. Other than the marginal cash flow deterioration from future projection, the valuation is almost the same. But seriously! Unless of course, they are saying the consumers are going bankrupt which is apparently not the case from various bank earnings reports.
thanks!
Ok, lets see
:-)
If all businesses are exposed to market risk and nobody can know the timing of a crash, would it be reasonable to say the biggest risk is buying assets when they’re overvalued? or is it more sector- and business-specific risks? If your portfolio is filled with quality companies (low debt, high ROIC, strong moat) which aren’t overpriced relative to their intrinsic value (discounted sum of future cash flows x probabilities) what else do you do to optimize your risk/reward?
focus on businesses, that will survive and grow stronger!
Have paused the video :)
It's about:
-Finding investments where the risks and rewards fit your personal goals/ life.
-Buying (absolute) value no matter what will come.
Hope I pass the 'SC Value exam'.
Now back to the video :)
Hmm... Not the precise 'two word answer' the teacher was looking for. But let's hope I'll still pass this test :D
yes you do!
Buying the essential returns! Good call.
I sold my 2 large holdings in index funds yesterday for these reasons alone. Risk of holding the S&P and the Nasdaq versus the reward of selling for a nice profit in the face of obvious headwinds. I also exited my positions in Russian businesses. Holding cash in these high inflationary times isn’t ideal either, but the notion of taking a 10% loss in purchasing power seems preferable then holding overvalued index and extremely volatile business positions. Thanks for the video and I will be patiently waiting stock analysis for possible opportunities in the future!
thanks for sharing!
Very nice illustration of the impact of a crash on performance. Now, if people were to measure performance by the income yield of a portfolio instead of focusing on annual capital appreciation, things would be much easier. Like what a good landlord does focusing on the rent from properties and not on possible appreciation of assets. Capital appreciation depends on the fundamentals of the business but also on market sentiment, therefore it is a tainted metric. Real loss is when the income is reduced long term… Not when the price of the business goes down. Thinking this way helps to disconnect from the market (I did not even realize the index was down 7% this year before watching this video 😂)
excellent point !
The only ones I see being right are Jeremy Grantham and Michael Burry.
:-)))
Live analysis of stock would be owesome to learn what to search for
thanks, will do!
Very few people are predicting a crash. If everybody was doing this, the indices would be down over 30% already.
good point!
I don't have time to sit around all day worrying about market crashes LOL, if it happens who gives a shit, just take advantage of the panic. Market crashes presents a lot of good investing opportunities if you know where to look and what to look for.
good mindset!
This discussion is incomplete as it only uses nominal returns. Returns, especially long term, should be measured in real, inflation adjusted returns.
then deduct inflation from that, simple!