Why Your Smartphone Will NEVER be Fast Enough - Jevons Paradox
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 16 ม.ค. 2025
- No matter how fast the processor is in your next smartphone, it won't be fast enough! All gains in processor power efficiency lead to greater demands for performance! Don't believe me? Let me explain!
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This is EXACTLY the kind of clarification I try to bring to conversations abut things like battery longevity. People in my comments easily drop a pithy "it need to have better battery, last two days on a charge", ignoring the fact that every battery (and SOC efficiency) improvement we get just encourages more use.
Always appreciate a chat with some nuance. 👍
In a world with wireless charging and 200 watt wired charging is battery life even a concern anymore? If you’ve got a wireless charger in your car, at home, or even in the office, you almost have to try to run out of battery. You really have to try to kill an iPhone 13 Pro Max. Also, if it only takes your phone 2 minutes to go from 0% to 50%, will big batteries even be worth it? If perovskite solar takes off, you could even have the back if the phone be solar panel that charges at a meaningful rate. Not to mention increasing energy density and new battery technology. I’m not as interested in battery life as I used to be because it’s an issue you can easily solve now in a convenient way and probably won’t be an issue in the near future. CPU, GPU, and especially neural computing performance is much more interesting to me nowadays for mobile than battery life.
Exactly! It’s like how adding more lanes to a highway won’t decrease traffic. Because more people will just use the highway.
My little iPhone 13 mini is two years old and I can go two days without charging. If you want your battery to last two days without charging, get off your damn phone.
That so dumb reply my god, people really this low IQ? "encourages more use"? My phone is a tool, I am using it when I need it. I am not using it more because it has a bigger battery LOL, I am using it when I need. Thats why I bought a phone with a bigger battery and a lower performance SOC, which usually can last 2 days.
This is why the old guys love C, memory management. New programmers just assume there's enough memory.
Nah, it'll be fine your PC has 32GB RAM,
Nah, I grew up with Arduinos and other MCUs. I know memory limits
New programmers don't even think about memory. You need to do embedded to have that mentioned or have messed up once in such a way that a garbage collected language uses more memory than your RAM can take.
This is exactly the issue. When computers didn't have extra resources software engineers had huge focus on efficiency.
But with more hardware they have stopped the focus on efficiency and focussed more on feature and multiples iterations on what peopel do not even necessarily need or even want. 😅
i feel like our modern world in general just produces too much things at too high of a speed. whether it's new software, new movies/tv series, new products, etc. I don't necessarily want 3 marvel movies a year, that's such a breakneck production cycle and the quality suffers. In general i think the world can do more with less, if anything else everyone can take a chill pill and just allow themselves to not be constantly making stuff. How we collectively achieve that goal is beyond my knowledge
Software will just become more bloated to force you into buying new crap!
Because we live in a world of SCRIPTERS and not PROGRAMMERS.
Anything above C is bloated including C++
@@MarquisDeSang You use C, not machine language? Talk about bloat
IBM made a series of computers 3 models, fast medium and slow. The fast one executed the command in one cycle the medium in two cycles and slow in 3 cycles. So only one was optimised the others had bloat.
@@jimgsewell Sadly Assembly is not portable, but I do program in Assembly once in a while, recently I programmed in assembly on a real Risc-V Linux SBC.
I would rather want better battery life and a phone that doesn't easily break.
Quite, I have never replaced a working phone.
If your phone won't break, the phone company couldn't sell you new phones.
@@luciuskyle2622 they could if it just did not run the latest OS or APPs after 5 or 6 years.
Buy a rugged phone 😊
@@kodaph miss those samsung active phones.
8:40 There's a caveat in the first point in that like with any computer, storage has the biggest impact in this area, I got the chance to use two different SD 855 devices, one had UFS 2.0 other 3.0 and there's a huge difference in responsiveness in 3.0, to the point that having an 855 was almost pointless because an older 835/845 was nearly as responsive, only reason I even upgraded was because I received an older phone with a cracked screen.
Great video: tech philosophy! There’s also, I think, one more thing to add to these reflections: the industry sells things the consumers don’t necessarily need just to make obsolete their products; it’s not just a quest for the faster or the better. One example: do we really need 4K in a handheld 5 or 6in display? For that, GPU requirements and power must be enormous. Wouldn't it be more practical - and resource savvy - to concentrate on more efficient, more luminous and contrasty screens (yet, if needed)? The Jevons’ Paradox is certainly doped with marketing.
The issue isn't that phones are getting more powerful, it's that the software is so locked down that it prevents the optimal use of the power. When my phone can do everything my laptop can do, then I'll be interested in more performance.
Even beyond that the issue is everything is built on the same lazy packages and frameworks that have become bloated references over time and no real attempt is made to optimize anything anymore. It's not just a phone problem, it's a problem with all computer related technology.
For what it’s worth, on iPhone at least, it kinda feels like we hit a software stagnation point a few years back. There’s very little outside of 3D gaming or alt market emulation that’s gonna really make the phone feel “too slow”.
The “race to sleep” paradigm of modern processors has really done a lot to make a processor that feels super fast but doesn’t chug battery.
Let's hope that in 100 years Gary Sims becomes a historical figure to be recorded in every elementary/secondary school textbook ever.
As for android, Google has been choosing sandboxed security over efficiency/perf with their Scoped storage etc changes, so we dont feel the gains from better SoCs, as software is being written badly to compensate for all the improvements in H/W
That's one way of looking at it, the other way is that better SoCs are enabling more and better security while keeping performance acceptable. For the hub of your digital life, I think security is a worthy goal (not to say we're doing well enough at all right now!)
@@pv2b the reality is that mobile market has been stagnant since like last 3 years, as it reached saturation.
The guys that developed new gimmicks for phones have settled in their lives, gotten jobs at big tech companies or smaller ones, so no one (competent) is actually there bringing in new features.
Hence Modding community is mostly stagnant.
Further, the heightened security stifled any leftover devs trying to bring new features.
This only leaves us with big tech giants who's sole interests are into profit margins, the people that work there don't have enough creative freedom, so no new gimmick coming out, no need for adding anything that costs more.
You can only add so many camera sensors & RGB.
Without the rush of supporting new gimmicks, the gen over gen improvement must remain in single digit.
We've simply reached the saturation, & until TSMC figures out GAA-FETs & beyond, we're stuck with 3nm-5nm chips with no one to bring out true potential of the compute power they offer.
i used to always express this phenomenon in terms of Intel giving us more power every year or so, and Microsoft coming right behind them gobbling it all up with a bunch of bloated crap. As quickly as things change in the tech universe, some things just never do.
So they have to not support old hardware so it would not instantly turn into red hot cpu potato. That actually makes too much sense.
Excellent Gary, thank you. Thought provoking.
I mostly agree with you, but I find it funny because I haven't bought a flagship phone since 2015; Nexus 6. It wasn't a much better experience than my Moto X 2014 and some older phones. I think the gap for "regular use" quickly closed and I explored finding the best value for the money phones for a few years. I have been using the current Pixel A phone since the series started. I also have an iPhone 13 and I feel my Pixel 6a is an overall better experience. 7a kills it.
Everyone just wants longer battery life, it's hilarious that we don't have 7 - 14 day battery life already. Would make perfect sense for them to innovate on power storage as we're already outsourcing computational power to the cloud.
I've watched this effect since personal computing became popular back in the 1980s. It's amazing how much work you can get done on a computer without a windowing system or graphical output. But times have changed and there's no going back.
This is very true. Computers have not become any faster to use despite being literally millions of times 'better' in terms of processing power, storage and ram. I'm still flabbergasted at how slow a Windows pc can be after just a few years of use. It breaks my heart that a for example a printer driver can be so bloated these days that it would max out a 90s supercomputer.
@@smile768 Just imagine opening a modern web page with a 90s high end computer. Having to squeeze content through a dial up modem made web developers super efficient. Forget trying to play a video, even a locally stored video.
Using WP5.x to design a document require certain learning curve compared to how we make up a document these days. How often did you do a print preview just to get an idea what you have been making?
Mouse-less computer programs are more efficient if you already know how to use them.
@@joegee2815 As a web dev, I want those days. When people didn't think, oh you have 32GB ram it's fine. And then you get surprised with 12MB of ram that you need to download on initial page load and why it takes so long to load. few weeks gets it down to 3MB, and now you have css that is at 3.7MB, insane.
Anywho, I've seen 15MB image load initially, no responsive sizing, zero, null, nill, nada, none. 15mb on initial load, I could not be leave it but it happens, on a web page from a web dev company.
As a web dev,, I am truly sorry for this. Hope you can understand the pain when I realized most used text editor uses 600MB ram without anything opened. (VSCode)
Absolutely amazing job. This should be on everyone's feed
I think we are seeing a plateau of smart phone upgrades mainly because no new features are coming out. Apple has seen this. And they also had a plateau of Mac sales since the M1 came out. Even the M2 did not improve sales because the incremental increase in performance did not warrent an upgrade.
Look at the bigger picture, not the local terrain.
@@GaryExplains The bigger picture is that it is getting harder and harder to make smaller transistors.
@@fulconandroadcone9488 That is true. But we haven't reached the limit yet, plus there are more ways to expand "performance" than just the process node. Before GPUs all the graphics were handled by the CPU. Before FPUs all the math was done in software. Before NPUs... etc... There will be more hardware accelerators used for specific segments of computation, which will increase overall performance.
One of my favorite paradoxes 🤓 Thanks for pointing out this interesting, big picture approach
I think a better statement is that there will always be benefit for faster smartphone
cause the thing is, I agree that there are tasks that my 5 year old phone can't do because it's just simply excruciatingly slow. However, I simply have no desire to do that task on my phone, even when given the appropriate tools to make the task enjoyable, I still won't realistically do it on my phone.
To some people smartphones can be fast enough, at least fast enough in a longer timeframe than the current upgrade cycle. Not because there's no harder task to tackle but simply because they have no desire to tackle it on their phone.
I would legitimately love a phone that has middling processor but is thick and built to be able to last and repairable. That's a tradeoff I'm willing to make. I think that's what those commenters are trying to say. not that things are going unecessarily fast rather, if I there's improvement in smartphone technology, i want it to be in other area
i miss the days when we were satisfied with a phone being able to make/receive calls and sms😅
I have heard it stated this way: Any gains that the hardware engineers make the software engineers will piss away. :)
I just want better reception… 3d scanning would be cool… but idk anything else I need my from my phone
Dude, so much knowledge
For everything in general… These companies would rather us pay a regular subscription than to own!
Google Maps devs have really taken Wirths law to the next level
Thanks for the episode 😊
In a world ablaze with screens so bright,
Our smartphones race, in a ceaseless flight,
But heed the tale of paradox's might,
Why faster chips won't quench our light.
Jevons spoke of a curious lore,
A paradox hidden in progress' core,
As efficiency grows, we ask for more,
Desiring more speed than ever before.
With chips that hum and processors grand,
We hold technology's gift in our hand,
Yet thirst unquenched, a boundless demand,
Faster, swifter, at our command.
The Jevons Paradox, a truth profound,
In each breakthrough, it can be found,
For as devices quicken, we're tightly bound,
To yearn for more, in a cycle unbound.
A swifter app, a snappier game,
Only fuels the hunger, the eternal flame,
To stream and surf, to stake our claim,
In a digital world, always aflame.
So, heed the lesson that history imparts,
As innovation quickens, in all its arts,
The yearning for speed never departs,
A dance with paradox, where progress starts.
No matter the chip, no matter the code,
The thirst for speed forever bestowed,
In this boundless race, our fate is sowed,
A paradox eternal, in circuits that glowed.
Separating "coding" from "designing" is a core fail right there. That practice stems directly from the "man-month" mindset. It presumes that one can hitch the "wagon" of some "project management team"-puppeteered "designer" to a long mule team of low-ball coders and get results anywhere near using proper developers requiring minimal oversight and paid a reasonable salary for their value.
Clear explanation. Thank you sir.👏
You're most welcome
I think it depends on the utility of the device. I have been completely satisfied with the performance of my phone for years now (Pixel 4XL 4 years ago and a pixel 6a for the last half year).
If I could plug my phone into a usb4 dock, power two monitors, a keyboard and run Linux that would be different - I would crave performance improvements of my phone then
Unleas you plan on playing games I don't think you would need that much more performance improvement at this point.
Back in the 90's at Intel, we used to say "Intel giveth, and Microsoft taketh away."
Windows 11 is a very good example for the "bloat" talked about in this video with all the web crap replacing native code.
This is great, I do think there is a sense of what is good enough for today however that could be explored. I mean even Apple thinks last year’s iPhone. Chip is good enough for this year’s iPhone. I understand that there will always be a need for more and more compute power but for the average smart phone user putting a pause on increasing performance, and just focusing on efficiency for a generation or two would be a welcome change. Every time Pierce and see what’s out a new node apple talks about how many more billion transistors they can add. If they instead kept the transistor counter, the same, oh, and simply focused on power efficiency it would be amazing what they can do. (they actually did something very similar with the iPhone 13, the iPhone 13 had vary little performance uplift over the 12 but because of the efficiency gains they made, the 13 had an extra 2 hours of battery life.
6:00 They're not exactly wrong, Most flagship chips nowdays are more than capable of running any daily apps & 99% of Top 25 most popular games smoothly for a phone's lifecycle (which varies from person to person but I like to think it's about 3-5 years before they upgrade to the next one)
Phones have gotten 500% faster but apps & games haven't gotten 500% more demanding over these 8 years.
With current technology Performance/Watt goes up as performance goes up, but that doesn't mean some future technology couldn't give massive power reduction coupled with small performance changes.
Gaming platforms like the steam deck allows the user to configure the TDP (Thermal Design Power) so that the user can configure their device to limit the power used by the CPU/GPU giving the user the choice to give up some performance to get better battery life.
while you might be spot on - there is something else to consider...
1. planned obsolescence - manufacturers need you to buy their latest and greatest
2. lack of software updates (mostly android world), apple does ios updates for quite some time but some features are missing (some due to hardware changes but mostly it is to rob you of the latest and greatest features and force you into buying a new device
currently i am using a oneplus 8 and it still works great - good piece of hardware with decent software at this point 3+ years old and i reckon if i installed lineage os on it it would work even better, even a factory reset would probably make it work much better
I don't know my phone has been fast enough, but my laptop with 64 gb ram is struggling with all photoshop and all other resource intensive programs I'd never use on mobile.
Virus
@@kodaph Or just bloated Windows kernel? We may never know.
Great one Gary! 👍
Glad you enjoyed it
My smartphone is fast enough for my needs
I do agree with you but there is also a lot of bloat on our phones eating battery and performance. I have installed aosp android 13 on it and I was shocked, it's fast the battery lasts for more than a day I would even say that it feels faster than my daily phone. I don't doubt that we will always need faster processors but won't better optimisation of cleaning garbage background telemetry help our performance today?
Good job I covered bloat in the video then!!! 😜
@Gary Explains yeah, sorry, should've been more precise, you can increase the perceived performance of an old processor just by removing bloat. I guess I'm tierd of dealing with useless stuff on my equipment and wanted to complain 🙃
You forgot one statement in the is enough bulletpoints: "8GB of VRAM is enough to play at 1080p uktra/high settings" by Nvidia
This explains a lot about why my new phone after 2.5 years starts to feel slow doing the same tasks. What is your recommendation on how often one should upgrade there smartphone?
Phone will be able to run the graphics needed for further reality augmentation?
I am a software developer, a geek, a gadget lover - and now I choose a mid range waterproof phone, add a bulky case and a glass screen protector to protect it, disable 120hz refresh, disable animations, disable fast charging, limit charge at 85% It can do all the task I need it to do. I do not need a faster one. More storage and battery life would be welcomed - and I hope replacable batteries will become the norm as I really miss it from the current device.
Can I ask, did you watch the video?
So does this warrant the need to upgrade a phone every year to a newer processor?
No, not at all.
The thing is, what will happen if we start massively disusing computers? As in, in response to this consumer nightmare, what happens if users force computers to somehow de-evolve and leave their regular lives?
What happened to speed test g?
Having said all that, is this year worth upgrading from the iPhone 11 pro max to the 15 pro max??
Great piece of commentary professor
I changed from a sd 835 6 year old phone to a s21 cos it was spare. Fluidity, webpages, apps, games etc its maybe 10/20% more responsive, not 500% different. Apps like utube no difference.
Emulation zero diff other than ps2 n above.
Photos are again maybe 20% better, looking back i cant tell which photo was taken with which phones. Apps get optimization for lower end n older spec devices cos they are common.
I dunno. I'm pretty happy with my s23. So much so that I've kept it in low (light) performance mode since I got it 🤷
No telemetry, background apps running all day, ""secrets backdoor" and obsolescence as main goal to profits simple as that solved issue.
“Luxuries become necessities“ - Y. N. Harari
I'm still waiting for a distributed computing future. Where processes can be offloaded from a weaker device, on to a stronger one, or uses the entire network computing power for certain tasks.
Our network speed is almost as fast as the internal bus speed of older processors. I know there are certain industry already having applications doing that, like for video rendering.
But I would like to see that as a functionality at the hardware level and in the OS kernel for any processes.
That would also make wearables more functional, as they can "leech" into each other resources for processing power and whatnot when running in a PAN. While retaining their power efficiency.
I don't see that working better than how it is going right now, at least for a while, most of the current processors can do the basic computing without issues where consumer computers struggle generally is with heavy tasks which is what we generally like to do on servers Instead, don't know why we would want to dump all those tasks into other computers when the real life network is not perfect, there will always be lag, packets lost, signal hiccups, which could mean a less than ideal experience compared to what we have. I mean, I'm not saying it's impossible and if we ever get a network like the one every tech company promised when 5G was starting, then maybe it could work reliably enough and maybe it could make sense for a smartwatch or a new category of super affordable computers... Or IDK an aging PC maybe? But I think this is not such a good idea ATM.
@@walkinmn You took what I said and applied it on existing tech (that you are aware of). Yeah, that's not going to work. If it could, someone would have already done it. It would require quite a leap in our network tech, bandwidth, latency, stability. And just generally solving other issues with distributed computing.
It’s is and has been so since last four years. Have replaced the battery once and will do it again.
I am curious, did you actually watch the video?
@@GaryExplains No, I looked at 25 minute length and decided to skip
Ok, so why are you commenting on a video you didn't watch. I only say because your comment is not related in any way to the subject of the video. 🤷♂️
The reason why we don’t drive 300mph cars is that other factors - road capacity and safety- limit performance. It’s the same with phones - network and backend server capacity and speed are the things that actually determine the experience of the vast majority of users.
Depends what you use it for, if all your doing is browsing, TH-cam, streaming etc than it will be fast enough for quite a while. If your on the bleeding edge than yeah nothing will be fast enough for you lol.
Out of interest, did you actually watch the video?
The explanation of the roads shows clearly what he's trying to explain, no matter how much resources a phone gets it literally uses it, that's the reason of the business, just to sell the Illusion of a more efficient and powerful machine
I use my phone as my daily PC via Samsung DeX to a 1440p external display so I welcome more performance.
People saying we need efficiency not performance is not that wrong
8g1 888 and 865 have about the same efficiency (talking about cpu) because 865 didn't use more than 6-7 watts but 8g1 can ramp up to 12watts is cpu heavy stuff so absolute performance is higher but it's useless
Where are you getting the 12W number from?
@@GaryExplains other people's testing as I don't have 8g1 but I have 888 and in Geekbench multicore it draws 9 watts my dad's phone is 865 it draws about 6-7watts (what phones can actually sustain)
I can reference two youtube videos one is techtech potatos (ian cutress TH-cam channel) detailed testing of 8+g1 includes older socs and a Chinese TH-camr called geekerwan "the smartphone cpu review you need to watch"
@@arianamirgholami9555 I recommed geekerwan too.
This would also apply to general energy consumption, the more energy and efficiency humanity gets the more energy we use and this isn't declining, that's why we need more and more green energy sources for the always increasing demand.
RIGHT! 🤗
I'm perceiving it as V8 engine, it's quite efficient when you're driving 60 mph. But it also can accelerate you faster than small cars. Same with new APUs it's quite efficient on not demanding tasks, but it can handle much harder tasks, when you need it.
But overall I agree with the Jevons Paradox, camera apps become much more demanding over years, animations, 120hz games, all of these eat more juice and we will never stop to increase efficiency, performance, and apps that eat more and more battery.
Its like software developers hitch a trailer full of junk to your V8 sports car
@@leonidas14775 😂
Ok sure, but I still disagree that you need a more powerful soc to just scroll social media. Yes websites and apps are getting more demanding but that rate is much slower than the rate of performance we get from soc generations. For example my old Galaxy S9+ is still plenty powerful to do all the basic things a phone does despite being 5 years old. The only reason I had to upgrade was battery degradation and Samsung dropping support. It definitely wasn’t because the phone didn’t have enough performance
Did I say you need a more powerful soc to just scroll social media?
@@GaryExplains but that’s just it, that’s the use case of most users. Unless a new use case is invented that demands more performance that the vast majority of users adopt, then all that performance will just not be used. We see this in how slow people are upgrading now. They keep their phones for 3-4 years where as just 10 years ago keeping a phone longer than 2 years was incredibly rare
Can I ask, did you watch the video?
@@GaryExplains yes I did. From start to finish. And just to be clear I do agree that as more performance is made available, developers will find a way to use it, especially on desktop. I think phones are just an outlier to that rule purely based on how they are utilized at least today.
I think the opposite, more and more of our daily compute usage is now performed on our smartphones. It is the computing device you have in your hand and with you most of the time. All new technology l, like generative AI etc, will migrate to the smartphone.
I haven't really experienced any major performance issues with a phone in the past decade. I even went with a budget phone for a couple of years, and that was adequate. I would prefer optimizations for battery life and better batteries.
Bloat is absolutely a problem with software. Feature creep over decades has created this mess of heavy software that's more prone to bugs and security concerns, and some features could be deprecated without most users even noticing. Adding tons of processor intensive silliness like animations to things nobody wants to cares to have animated, is also stupid. (Remember Windows Aero desktop animations? Did anyone use it or just turn it off?)
Microsoft Word asks for a minimum of 4GB of HDD (SSD now) on Windows machines. For a word processor! Why? It also requires 2GB of RAM for the 64-bit version.
I am hoping AI will have the ability to heavily optimize code and lean out these applications so they are more reasonable.
Fantastic! I adore such discussions! Brooks’ book is a must-read for anyone. Another fantastic book about prediction in technology is “Fumbling The Future” by Smith and Alexander.
Although we've been seeing exponential growth for a long time, it will eventually plateau on a long enough time scale.
Users crave for a better battery life so when they hear "power efficiency" they get excited but when they buy the product, it's just another disappointment🤦♂.
The argument here is there's no proper scaling between the usage of the device and it's battery life, some do actually use their devices moderately so they expect the "promised efficiency"!
But companies allow themselves to take that extra juice and use it somewhere else so we end up with the same usage time from 5 years ago!
In the age of Commodore 64 people had to do with the memory at hand. Now that I have that in gigabytes it's time to load up the memory and the 64Gb has been spoken for.
Umm, I dunno why I have this differing thought. Through the power of streaming, and the potential to capitalize on such services, I have this idea that the software of the future will be streamed to the devices. HP already demoed this with their last HP Elite X3 Windows 10 Mobile suite for streaming PC-grade software to the device when docked and via Continuum. Currently, we can stream and play high-end AAA games on our phones that can only "dream" of running the games natively. NVidia allows me to use 3D rendering software on their online GPU services - no need for my laptop to have the latest and greatest.
So I'm thinking that's more or less the trajectory.
Those bullet points of comments people make is interesting, it shows people are willing to keep there phones and tech for longer, which is responsible I am told.
A further thought.. production nodes can only shrink a little further meaning afterwards any new performance will need to be done by software engineers as hardware will be at its limits.
Its always the same , the more power we have , the more we find more ways to use to use it up :) .
I need a living computer in my pocket.
got the asus rog 7 ultimate not sure if I need a new one for the next 4 years or more. That thing is fast.
Nice phone, but did you watch the video?
@@GaryExplains No, I did not finish yet. But you already notice that xD
There's no reason for any individual to have only one computer in their home
People are never satisfied with what they’ve got , they always look to the next thing.
need to get a phone with 10,000 mah battery
Most expert predictions don't age well... kinda hoping Gary's will be the exception.
Screens are getting bigger, foldable phones are starting to make sense...game console maker ATARI went out of business making similar mistakes that Nokia made ... exciting times ahead for sure. God willing I'll be a witness. I wonder where the good ol' PC is headed next though? Any predictions?
Well, the whole industry is going ARM and PCs are still stucked with x86 and doesn't seem to be able to keep improving at the rate ARM is so I do wonder when the PC will finally make the change. Maybe in a few years we'll start to see PC ARM SoCs with maybe 2 x86 cores glued to it for old programs? I just hope this doesn't also means the lost of upgradeability and repairability
Definitely its bloated apps, operating systems, and bloated websites. Phone users are mostly using their phones for the same stuff as 10 years ago. I shouldn't need to install windows 10 LTSC, made for embedded systems, on my home PC to get good performance.
M$ should write a guide on how to create BLOAT!
There r plenty of so called “bloated” devs and system designers today and very few who get the concept and art of programming with system design right!
Shame on M$ for setting this bloat as standard with their Windowses and others SW. Gates deserves a statue in the amusement park with the quote of needing only 640 KB👋🤦♂️
Thx Gary for making this vid.
I call bullshit. The theory is nice and all, but is only a possible situation. The rising efficiency of my washing machine doesn’t significantly increase my demand for it, unless I previously didn’t wash out of fear of the cost. It would have had to be the limiting factor, and CPU performance at least isn’t limiting here. Very true still for servers, but I’ve never fully utilised the capabilities of my iPhone and probably won’t given the stagnating nature of apps on it.
Actually there are studies that show that we use more house appliances as they become more efficient (and are cheaper to run) and as they fall in price.
@@GaryExplains buying price I believe since it is immediately noticed, but only very few devices have a significant enough power draw to notice a difference in your bill. Unless you looked at the efficiency, you won’t know it is better. Same goes for the smartphone CPU. If you’re not a techie, you wouldn’t notice the generational improvements between at least higher end phones. What you’ll notice is the new battery, or the old, and accordingly set energy saving options. Again I don’t doubt the effect, but it has to be on a noticeable or marketed difference to affect psychology in that way, and smartphone CPU performance just isn’t a big factor.
And even with that effect, there has to be something to use a factor with to even be able to increase usage.
Will our HDDs/SSDs size be ever good enough?
Well data size is a different thing because it scales linearly, you can just literally add more drives to a pool and get more storage.
It's everything never enough for us people
ikr
Honestly, look into refurbished phones. I know,....but let ME explain. First, I would suggest buying from a refurbisher on eBay or Amazon. Canadian Amazon only offers 90 days warranty. I bought mine from an eBay authorized refurbisher and got a year's warranty. My Note 10+ arrived in pristine condition, good battery life and really, has more features than newer models. It won't get more software updates but will get security updates for another year or two. That's not even a big deal anymore. Android components mostly get updated from the Play Store now. Samsung updates many components from their store. At this point you won't get much of a processor update year to year. All high end smartphones from the last few years are more than good enough for the point and shoot photography most of us do (birthday parties, kids, pets) Buy an entry level DSLR for more serious stuff. You have some extra cash, after all. The little lenses on your smartphone will never be as good. It's just not physically possible no matter what Samsung or Apple puts on the spec sheet.
Eh? My guess is that you didn't watch the video. You are way off topic.
I paid $300 Canadian for a Galaxy Note 10+. It has 12 GB of ram, 256 GB of storage and a micro SD card slot. The Galaxy 23 Ultra, which is the Note replacement is $2,000+ Cdn. It has 8 GB of RAM, 128 GB of storage and no micro SD card slot. The processors and cameras aren't that different. Why pay $1700 more or get tied to a contract when it's never going to be good enough? I'm agreeing with you. And, from what I'm hearing, you guys are going to be getting Snapdragon processors in your Samsungs from now on. We used to be stuck with the Exynos processors every few years in Canada. They're horrible.
The batteries don't need to be sealed in either. That's the biggest scam.
Hmmm. I am still guessing that you didn't actually watch the video.
My Huawei P20 Pro is 5 years old. The battery still lasts 2 days and I find it's as fast as the day I bought it.
Good to hear that. Did you actually watch the video?
@@GaryExplains I did watch it, but I confess that I replied prior to that
And there you go folks...BLOATWARE it is! All Operating System designers should ideally make two versions of their software, the flagship and the lite version...or if not, embed a code that "learns" the hardware and debloats the OS on-the-fly.
I am just waiting for the day when we can control the smartphone using our minds. This is already possible with computers (research).
The only performance i need is Qualcomm to beat apple in geekbench single core 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
But in reality the performance is plenty good as of right now
it won't happen, because Samsung lost his balls and chickened out to release a phone with Apple, most of the people lost the track on the pairs, but if you rename back the S23U to Note 23 and put back on the timeline, that SD8G2 is the competitor of the iPhone 15 with A17, not the already one year old A16. Or you need to state that in the past decade they are also never was competitor just the already one year old phones, not that what they are released with.
I will say that my current phone is 5 years old (XS Max), and it's more than fast enough, never feeling sluggish. My last phone likely wouldn't have kept me happy this long. So while I don't disagree with your presentation, I would amend it by saying demand isn't increasing exponentially or even linearly with increased cpu efficiencies. The same can be said with desktops, I have computers that are pusing 9 years old, not only do they still work, they have kept up with the increased burden of modern websites and apps; taking a computer from 91' and using it in 98'/99', that would've been unthinkable however. I think as technologies mature, our expansion of new uses decelerates over time...never stopping of course.
...I also feel coal isn't a perfect facsimile for computational efficiencies, but alas I've no energy to explain, typed enough already.
Can I ask, did you actually watch the video?
@@GaryExplains I've watched half of it, I had to go back to work...but I didn't see any allowances at the 10 minute mark, that would counter the 'fast enough idiots' sentiment, which I think amounts to a crude oversight/black & white simplification...I'll watch the rest and amend my comment if isn't merited. I was simply articulating my personal view.
I suggest you watch the whole video as the main point is that NOT if you smartphone is fast enough to do everything you do today, but that smartphones will increase performance and do things that we can't do today. You may have a 9 year old PC, but as you said you can't use a PC from 1999. It is the same with Smartphones. The Jevon paradox isn't about coal per se, but more broadly about how efficiency leads to more consumption of a resource, in this case performance.
Thank you for your reply, I’ve now listened to the whole video, but my point hasn’t been addressed. I’m not arguing that computational efficiency won’t increase over time, or that hitherto unimagined uses won’t appear in the future…I’m simply saying the useable life of computational devices is increasing, as the rate of the increase in use cases and/or demands slows.
Also my example wasn’t to say use a 90s PC in the current year…rather that a 90s PC would be unusable in the year 2000, whereas a a PC from 2013 by comparison, would be eminently more usable a decade later in 2023; I hope that make sense
I don't see why we would ever need more than 64GB RAM for home computing. And that's being generous.
advanced computational pho... ah yes... photography
Well everything is proportional to your screen size. If you keep your screen size constant your benefit from faster cpu is marginal. I noticed Apple has introduced 15" macbook air after furnishing this line with a powerful cpu, because you don't need that powerful cpu if you are using an 11" toy laptop. Simalar trends exists in phones too, they now introduce flip phones to maximize the display size. I wonder why nobody makes slim 18" laptops and 16" tablets?
3:06 Apart of Intel recent CPU :) ( a joke ish)
That's why I dont like these kind declarative statements. They're generally there to produce outrage (and thereby, engagement). 😂
I am still using a Redmi Note 7 as a secondary phone, but I only bought a second hand Samsung Galaxy Note 10 lite recently because I needed the stylus functionality in my line of work. So generally, all I can say is that my Redmi is fast enough for the things I needed it to do. So when I see the statement "your next smartphone won't be fast enough," what immediately comes to mind is "for what?"
So, my guess is that you didn't actually watch the video.
@@GaryExplains Hey man, no offense meant. It's a good explainer video. But what I'm pointing out is the rather personal nature of the statement "YOUR smartphone will never be fast enough." I think you should change this to "Why Smartphones will NEVER be fast enough."
Now let me explain. 😜
I believe that ALL people, even if you're the most tech-literate person in the world right now, will eventually reach a point where you can no longer take advantage of faster phones. I mean, there comes a point when a 100 year old Twitch streamer gets tired of trying out new games. At that time, we can say that HIS/HER smartphone is already fast enough. So in conclusion, I agree that smartphones will get faster and faster in the future to the point that we're probably tweaking processors at the atomic level. But you as an individual has a ceiling for how fast your phone should be, that anything faster would simply be a waste.
Hey man, no offense taken, but clearly it isn't a good explainer because you missed the whole point (based on your comments).
@Gary Explains I don't know what to tell you, man. I did learn a lot from the video. But I watched it again to see if I missed anything. But after watching it again, I still hold on to my statement that this video should be titled "Why Smartphones will never be fast enough," with the "your" removed.
Nobody will generally recommend a Snapdragon 8 gen 2 for grandma just so she can access Facebook, because a SD 7 Gen 2 is FAST ENOUGH for that. What I'm basically saying is, the general claim that the next phone will not be fast enough is easily rebutted if we ask a followup question of "For what?" or "For whom?" As I explained, I don't disagree with the notion that future generations will benefit from faster and faster processors collectively. It's just that for individuals, that benefit may not be needed.
OK, thanks for replying. I appreciate that. My point is that with new processing power we get new use cases. You seem to concentrate on today's use cases and ask if processor X or phone Y is capable of running those kinds of tasks, and of course they are, but that isn't the point of the video. I am not talking about Twitch, or Facebook, those things are resolved. I am saying there are other things, new things that can be done, but we can't do them yet as the processing power isn't there.
Systems are not designed or created they evolve, better ways of doing something come along and are incorporated into the system. That us why technology takes time otherwise they would have everything from the very beginning.
So, an OS or an app, or a smartphone isn't designed?
@@GaryExplains Copies and improvements of earlier designs. Why is it taking RiscV so long to catch up? It is evolving.
Sorry Tony, I don't agree. Before we continue, what is your experience in software or hardware design? Just so I know who I am talking to and at what level to pitch my answers. As for RISC-V, it isn't evolving the specification for the basic stuff has been fixed for years. That isn't what is making progress slow.
Another diff btwn coal and processor power is coal is a commodity. cpu power is not. even in your conclusions you compare different compute styles: general purpose, neural, graphics, etc... so comparing coal to cpu is a false equivalence
In Jevons Paradox it doesn't matter that coal is a commodity, what matters is that more efficient use of something leads to more demand, not less. Sorry that you can't see that.
Except I don't use it any different, I use my cellular for calls, texts and TH-cam. So I have seen better battery life and all that.
I also don't upgrade phones every year, Lol.
Because they don’t have Risc-V
😂