China Won't Attack Taiwan Unless...🧐 (redux)
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 19 พ.ค. 2024
- Chinese strategy in relation to the operations against Taiwan and the Chinese naval programme.
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the "Taiwan issue" actually is not a "relic" of civil war. its just not hot at the moment.
PRC and ROC never signed a peace treaty.
the latest unofficial ceasefire was in 1979.
Before the civil war, the whole China was called the 'Republic of China', or ROC. After KMT retreated to Taiwan province in 1949, they took the ROC government with them and the rest of China became the People's Republic of China, or PRC, under the rule of the CPC.
Apparently you have no clue about Chinese civil war, which in reality is still taking place and happening To-Date on Monday May 20th, 2024!! There was nothing so called unofficial ceasefire agreement signed at all. Both side simply at one point just “stopped” firing at each other. They both just turned their heads and competing at each other in global political recognition, economic strength, and technology and military development instead! The Governments from both side didn’t have any contacts or talks whatsoever till late 1980s and early 1990s and again nothing about ceasefire agreement ever took place on the negotiation table. Both sides have been exercising soft powers and declaring quarrels against each other ever since, which is pretty smart way, though! Sine 1990s to-date, Taiwan has finally and completely lost this silent war to China. However, China has turned themselves from one one poorest countries in the world to the second economic-wise and military-wise superpower country in the 21 century!
FYI, Germany needs Nord Stream 2. Guess what Taiwan needs. The answer is a lot. Taiwan is an island with zero recourses, and so is Japan, including S. Korea. The US likes to supply them with resources and cheap energy to make these two manufacturing economies. Please, be happy, Americans.
@@user-vp1vl6yp9t Japan doesn't need the US for that, it imports most of its energy from the middle east.
@@ASpyNamedJames Check out pearl harbor. Japan does need the US permission for importing most of its energy from the middle east, Iran, in particular.
Taiwan is more than just *symbolically* important to China. It is *strategically* important.
Should Taiwan become independent and fall under US influence, it could host a major US military presence just like in Japan and South Korea. This includes air bases, naval ports, and missile batteries.
As a critical part of the first island chain, Taiwan could be used to blockade China.
Taiwan is already Independent.
The US would have no need for a Military base in Taiwan if it wasn't threatened by China.
Just look at the newly opened bases in the Philippines. It was a direct result of Chinese aggression.
@@FloofyMinari Taiwan is not recognised by the United Nations.
Taiwan is not recognised by the United States.
The entire world subscribes to the One China policy.
Taiwan's own constitution stipulates that the mainland and China are one country.
China and Taiwan have an *unfinished* civil war. Civil war means they are one country.
Taiwan is not independent.
@@FloofyMinariTaiwan has already been used to attack the mainland in not too distant history. Japan did it.
We didn't allow Russia to host many weapons in Cuba for this reason as well. Luckily Kennedy negotiated that, by withdrawing weapons from turkey.
Sometimes you gotta give to get.
I think it also includes microelectronics. I read somewhere that Taiwanese military has doctrine which let them immediatly destroy all lythographic machines in the island if chinese invasion happens.
@@zenith_linear China is creating its own semiconductor supply chain. It's becoming less and less dependent on TSMC.
So, no, semiconductors are not a primary strategic element.
You look and sound much better! How is your health?
I am better now. Thank you.
@@Millennium7HistoryTech glad to hear
@@Millennium7HistoryTechWishing you good health in the future
@@Millennium7HistoryTech stay healthy! thank you for the work.
Firstly, there is no nation called Republic of Taiwan, .. the government in Taiwan is known as Republic of China.
Secondly , the Communist Party of China is known as "CPC", not CCP.The state department kept saying CCP so that they can deny ever attacking the Communist Party of China(CPC), making it very ambiguous, neither true or false.
CCP is the acronym of the Chinese communist party.
Before the civil war, the whole China was called the 'Republic of China', or ROC. After the KMT retreated to Taiwan province in 1949, they took the ROC government with them and the rest of China became the People's Republic of China, or PRC, under the rule of the CPC.
CCP = Chinese Communist Party
Very commonly used acronym, not CPC.
Ccp, Chinese communist party. Which is currently a dictatorship. Where anyone who disagrees with the leader “disappears”
@@user-lb8bg6kj9m No, I checked and the official name is Communist Party of China. So, CPC, not CCP.
My opinion regarding the carriers.
Type 001 - find out what is in a carrier.
Type 002 - Learn how to copy the Type 001, learning how the components of the carrier works, basic air operations, as well as expanding Chinese shipbuilding infrastructure for future carrier construction.
Type 003 - incemental modernization of the carrier and develop more advance air operations and possibly develop carrier operation doctrine.
So far, thes ehave all been technical testbeds and training ships. As such, they are all effectively single ship classes. Type 004 may also be a more advanced testbed, but possibly the first carrier designed specifically for carrier combat operations. Have to wait and see. A single ship class indicates an incremental step. A multi-ship class would indicate tha they are intended for naval oeprations, not a developmental carrier.
Type 003 is a major advance over the Type 002. I remember watching a U.S. Navy admiral calling the Type 003 carrier a pier ship to American ships. Nuclear carriers are only advantageous if the U.S. a long distance to cover. The Type 003 being a full CATOBAR equipped ship is the only carrier along with Charles de Gaulle outside the USA.
Glad to see you at full speed and voltage, man. This is an interesting analysis. As usual, you do an amazing job with publicly available information.
one correction, its ROC, republic of China instead of Republic of taiwan
Before the civil war, the whole China was called the 'Republic of China', or ROC. After KMT retreated to Taiwan province, they took the ROC government with them and the rest of China became the People's Republic of China under the rule of CPC.
@@joey3291 yes, and what's on the island of Taiwan is still ROC not ROT
All people have to do is look at the Taiwan passport. Right on the front seal. It says clearly Republic of China. There's no debate only ignorance
Go and read up on the territory administer by ROC, it's actually covers both Taiwan and fujian province. You don't hear about it because the pro separatist dpp government got rid of the provincial government system of ROC.
Read the constitution of the REPUBLIC of CHINA. (It also explains the Tibet "invasion"!) That is the CURRENT constitution of the Taiwan province.
the KJ-600 is a HUGE factor. it can greatly increase China's air assets while staying relatively close to China's land based SAM assets.
Type-76 is intriguing: as UCAVs can stand higher G than manned aircrafts, if a strong electromagnetic catapult is instelled in theory the ship can launch vary large drones.
The data is a bit old, at least three years old, anyway, thanks for such a detailed analysis, thank you，However, contrary to your reasoning, any data supports that the PRC can easily occupy Taiwan, where the ROC is currently located, and the reason why the PRC does not do so is not that it has no military capability, but that there is no political motive at present, and the CCP prefers peaceful reunification
Thank you for your video! Always interesting.
Happy to see you looking so well and making excellent content. You are one of my favorites!
It's the first time I hear him truly worried
There were so many ups and downs of dynasties in the long history of China. From this history, we learned that the conquerers would always be conquered later. Cooperation and peace is the only way.
For a big attack, those stobar carriers will likely accompany the bigger carriers so as to act as escorts/fleet defence/scouts. That way more planes from the big carriers can concentrate on the mission with a heavier weapon load.
All the commodities you mentioned are produced at scale in Russia. If China and Russia bored a tunnel under the Altai mountains and connected Novosibirsk and Urumqi by train and pipelines, China would basically have an undisruptible source of commodities. It would have to be the longest tunnel on Earth, but it would have huge strategic importance. The Gotthard Base Tunnel (57 kilometers) cost the Swiss the equivalent of $9 Billion. With Chinese and Russian workers, the longer tunnel might not cost more than $20 Billion. Both the Chinese and Russian economy would immediately start benefiting from this link.
Not iron ore !
@@LeonAust Google:
"Russia is a significant producer of iron ore, accounting for around 4% of global production. The country’s iron ore reserves are primarily located in the Kursk magnetic anomaly (KMA) in European Russia and the Ural Mountains region. The main iron ore-producing mines in Russia are the Lebedinsky GOK Mine and the Stoilensky GOK Mine, both located in Belgorod Oblast. In 2020, the Lebedinsky GOK Mine produced an estimated 21.9 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of iron ore, while the Stoilensky GOK Mine produced an estimated 18.642 MTPA.
Russia’s iron ore exports have been declining in recent years, with a 23.48% decline in 2022 compared to 2021. The main destinations for Russian iron ore exports are China, Germany, Turkey, Slovakia, and Serbia. The fastest-growing export markets for Russian iron ore between 2021 and 2022 were South Korea, Tajikistan, and Latvia.
The country’s iron ore production is expected to continue to play a significant role in the global market, with Metalloinvest, a Russian mining company, having the world’s largest proven reserves of iron ore, with an estimated 15.4 billion tonnes. This guarantees about 150 years of production."
So why haven't they done so in the past, or doing so now? Russia is on its way to being a junior partner to Russia.
You looked stylish again. I love your color combinations Sir. I’m thankful that your work is easily digestible and makes wonderful sense. It doesn’t matter that we agree on the information you provide. My years in the Marine Corps in the Eastern Pacific Rim, confirms my understanding of the area. God bless you with continued health Sir.🙏🙏
Thank you again for your amzing video. As always a very knowledgeable and informative video with experience meeting wisdom.
Ahhh Gus. Reliably brilliant: _Any country that can exert formal influences on other countries, limiting the choices of those countries, [is] a power._ Very well said.
(...particular thanks for pointing out that it's not that 'just China' says that Taiwan is part of China ... but also, that Taiwan says China is part of Taiwan. They are both making the exact same (incompatible) claims.)
Brazil is totally fine as long as politics stay the same, they are not aligned with USA.
That's a lie
@@rosevitelli5814 see about the Ukraine war, did they block Russia? NO, are they arming Ukraine? No, they are trying to cut a peace deal along with China. You know shit.
Блин, вррде уже писал под одним из видео о той же нефти и нефтепроаоде от России. Один уже есть. Сейчас поднимается вопрос о строительстве еще вместе с Силой сибири 2
Я честно не могу представить лучшено поставщика железа, меди и любой еды чем Россия. Россия крупнейший поставщик зерна. Только законы Китая препятствовали наращиванию торговли в этом вопросе
Вместе с територией бывшей Украины Россия займет 30 процентов Мирового рынка зерновых, процентов 20 по поставкам стали, титана и т.д
Посмотрим как поижмет Кииайцев, но учитывая недавний визит Путина в Китай, то вопрос скорее решенный
Russia is more vary of China than of the United States.
Far bigger probability of future war with China than with US as the Soviet Union found out.
A few days ago, the agreement was already signed
We will see. Russia has went from being seen as the leading nation to being chinas deputy. China isn’t interested in helping Russia and will take everything it can get at a reduced price.
Chinas trade with the west and the rest of the world is so massively more than its trade with Russia, China will not jeopardise its economy just to help Russia out of a problem of putins making.
Good points you brought up.
This is age old argument, Taiwan is singular most strategically important real estate globally for China to break all island chains and control most western pacific basing its navy, Air Force from it
FYI, Germany needs Nord Stream 2. Guess what Taiwan needs. The answer is a lot. Taiwan is an island with zero recourses, and so is Japan, including S. Korea. The US likes to supply them with resources and cheap energy to make these two manufacturing economies. Please, be happy, Americans.
@@user-vp1vl6yp9t : Saying that many multiple times does not make it true.
@@buildmotosykletist1987 Then, you must agree with "Saying that many multiple times does not make it untrue."
Do you know how many times that "Dog bless America" has been spoken?
FYI, you can't think.
@@buildmotosykletist1987 So, you must agree with "Saying that many multiple times does not make it untrue."
Do you know how many times that "Dog bless America" has been spoken?
FYI, you can't think.
Thanks
Despite my numerous disagreements with your analysis I enjoyed it!
You seem to have ignored the belt and road initiative which since the Russo-Ukraine war (Russia is all aboard the dragon bear train rn) has gotten way more viable as a method to decrease China's reliance on maritime trade.
Even your example with Brazil could partially be circumnavigated by using a third party state for trade IE gwadar (though it not viable yet)
I do 100% agree that china doesn't want war right now and from an American POV rn would be the best time to make the conflict go hot.
I could go on for days but only time will tell, so all the best ✌️
It's always gonna be: DO NOTHING, and WIN.
I saw that carrier smoking!🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
the carriers, or some of them, could be somewhat of a ruse
they might be giant LHD, or used as them
the other thing is, they will get a pipeline from Russia for fuel
Chinas demand for energy products is absolutely massive. It would take more than a pipeline to secure what it needs. China is unlikely to want to sole source its energy products from one supplier.
'...Unless Taiwan declares independence' As stated by Сhina as an official policy for decades now. Their goal also remains the same. Which is a peaceful reunification.
in fact
@@Millennium7HistoryTech In fact, Taiwan has modified its history teaching to make young people lose their identity as Chinese. This is the source of the cross-strait war.
To encourage a peaceful unification, President Xi's predecessors offered the Taiwanese this "One Country Two Systems" scenario which would allow Taiwan to keep its democracy in a peaceful unification. Hong Kong was meant to be a model for Taiwan to follow. In recent years, China's naval power improved rapidly, starting to rival the US in the region. This 'One China Two Systems' scenario is rarely promoted anymore.
@@tvgerbil1984 not really, the one country two system is not promoted anymore because it is use by DPP to attack China by misclaiming this is "Hongkongification of Taiwan". you really need to understand how the Taiwan public sees it, it is pointless to use language that can be distorted by your political rivals. instead the policy of "economic integration between province" is promoted, with Taiwan citizen given residency right and passport and provincial governors given the freedom to engage in deal with their Taiwan counterpart. this create competition between the mayors of Taiwan to position their own city as a hub for trade....
@@tvgerbil1984
Because the DPP is hell bent to abolish the ROC 🇹🇼 in Taiwan within this decade !
China navy can block about half the sea transportation from south China sea, it's a good card in hand.
And the us can block the Malaka strait ;-)
@@MrKirua21 US can't even survive when the manufacture capability already handicapped and having huge national debt, even the entire US alliance is unable to fill that debt shit hole.
@@user-yt5xc2sn3d China is dying off if china is that great of a country why do we have tens of thousands of your fellow countrymen at our southern border? China can't do shit without american technology your weapons systems like the j20 are stolen technology from the us
@@MrKirua21 They can? What happen in Red Sea right now?
@@user-yt5xc2sn3d China's debt to GDP ratio is the highest in the world at 280%, Japan also high, US is about 115%.
North China Sea should be East China Sea right? Or is this called differently somewhere else.
A video about the TFX Would be sick
Aardvark, right?
Officially it is CPC, not sure why u use CCP. Officially USA, can we start calling them AUS (American United States)?
Communist Chinese party, CCP. United States of America. USA.
Because these adult child successfully demonized the word "communist" and "Chinese"... , so Chinese Communist party sounds awfully worst. Communist Party of China sounds a whole lot official, these grown children didn't like that.
People need to read Chinese history.
Because if you do you will find out that this is not the first time that China has reunified Taiwan to the Mainland.
In 1631 the Manchu led Qing Dynasty defeated the remnants of the defeated Ming Dynasty in the Mainland
The remaining Ming forces fled to the Island ofTaiwan and established themselves there.
Over the next 40 years Qing China launched 11 different amphibious invasion attempts of the Island of Taiwan in a war that cost the lives of half a million people.
Qing China was relentless.
For over 40 years they kept coming back again and again and again and again until they eventually were successful and defeated the forces of Ming China in 1682.
This is what Westerners do not understand.
They think that a war over Taiwan will be a one time thing in which they will be able to defeat Mainland China in a one time thing and that then China will accept an independent Taiwan and Western forces will be able to go back home and the war will be over.
Not even in your dreams
If Mainland China ever decides to move to retake Taiwan they will mobilize their entire industrial manufacturing capacity into full scale war production into manufacturing weapons and ammunition into oblivion.
They will mobilize their entire population and raid an armed forces of tens of millions of men and women into the PLA.
They will not stop fighting until they eventually succeed
They will be relentless.
Even if you succeed in preventing them from taking Taiwan the first time they will go back to their Mainland, learn from their mistakes, rebuild their forces and come back again and again and again and again and again until they eventually succeed.
They will fight even if take years or decades until they succeed... They will never ever stop fighting. They will never give up.
They will be like the Greeks in the Trojan war. They will never stop until they have won.
Please keep that in mind if you are thinking about getting involved in a war with China over Taiwan.
Remember that a China is a country that has fought 500 year wars 100 year wars 50 years wars 22 year wars
Also Please keep that in mind that China's industrial capacity is larger than the next 9 countries combined.
They manufacture 200x more shipping tonnage than the United States.
Their population is larger than the United States combined with Japan plus 1 billion people.
Also keep in mind that China sent a spacecraft to Mars, to the dark side of the moon and the put a space station in space.
Don't think that China does not have the means to hit the US Mainland.
Furthermore,
Taiwan gets 67% of its food from abroad.
22% of that food comes form China
98% of all energy in Taiwan comes from abroad.
Just a blockade of Taiwan and the entire population will starve and go dark without power.
And Chinese warplanes, drones, artillery and missiles can hit anywhere on Taiwan from the Chinese coast.
Taiwan is undefendable
"this is not the fist time that China HAS reunified Taiwan to the mainland"
Has?
They haven't done it yet... Maybe you should keep past, present and future tense in mind.
Its been 80 odd years and counting, so fair Taiwan is winning the fight for its independence.
@@FallenPhoenix86 Read some damn history that is older than Ur country, such as the Zheng Chenggong and the Dutch. It might not seem relevant to U but to Chinese it was just yesterday.
@@harveyg6398
Yawn... 80 years... multiple generations... nothing to show for it.
What happened X centuries ago matters not in the slightest, the current situation is that the PRC have been making threats for decades but haven't had the balls to carry them out.
@@FallenPhoenix86 How petty. You don't like the reality check he gave you so you slap him with some grammer policing. He could be ESL for all you know, get a grip.
@@ASpyNamedJames
Its not petty at all though... the problem is I'm just right. 80 years off talk from multiple generations and no action.
Just because x, y or z has happened hundreds of years ago does not mean it will happen again, but he's acting as if its already happened.
I enjoyed your presentation: quite relevant although of course it can only be based on assumptions so that nobody knows what could happen at the end of the day, not to mention what level of human sacrifice each side is ready to accept since it's an important parameter as well (it wouldn't be a video game this time) ... I would not bet on the USA about that one but this is another story ...
Anyway all this case is quite close to the so-called Thucydides Trap where a dominant power cannot bear the thought of being challenged by a growing power which might eventually take its place. Consequently this dominant power starts a preventive war to get rid of its competitor so to speak. The original scenario goes back to the Peloponnesian War which took place 4 centuries BC but you know that perfectly.
The point is that, although History never repeats itself, this theory in vogue is still interesting because of the aftermath of this war between Sparta (the US) and Athens (China). Sparta won the war but this war had been so long (almost 30 years) and so cruel that it triggered the begining of the end for the whole Greek golden age. Everybody lost ... If you transpose that to the current age, it's quite scary, isn't it?
Just for fun: do you know that in March 1996, the mayor of the contemporary Sparta and the mayor of Athens signed a peace treaty which officially ended the Peloponnesian War once and for all? 24 centuries after the fight! 😉 So there is some hope ...
Have a nice day.
We can only hope if it's the time, that both sides can limit their political aims and the costs that they are willing to pay.
ATT MILLENIUM: Can the 002 launch a fully fueled jet ?
I'm not sure I agree with everything but good job. Unfortunately, I've now started the week with heartburn.
I don't think any sane in person wants a Chinese military takeover of Taiwan through invasion or blockade. I just worry about the ability of the United States to deter it. China can significantly outbuild the United States and they aren't idiots. They are building oil and gas pipelines in Asia and They're gold to build a canal in Thailand is not just about reducing shipping time and reducing congestion around Singapore.
Get well soon!
how could they outbuild without resources? or food? or oil?
@@adamroodog1718 Hint, a country with R initial word
No declaration of "independence" or abolishment of the ROC 🇹🇼 in Taiwan = No invasion
@@directxxxx71 good luck
I actually went to an electronic music festival happening on the deck of the CV16 Liaoning in 2010 before it was commissioned
Tell us more about!
Wow. Never heard about that before.
@@Millennium7HistoryTech it was called the Great Aircraft carrier party. I remember they only hosted it twice. Most attendees came from Beijing by shuttle bus, the Liaoning was stationed in Dalian. There was two different stages on the deck, one smaller playing drum'n'bass and one tech house music, and helicopters serving as a background. Security crew of the festival were wearing navy uniforms 😂 (or maybe they were really service men ? I'm not sure) I still have souvenir pictures and video of that crazy party.
@@mecinsignifiant "(or maybe they were really service men ? I'm not sure)"
IIRC, yes they were.
That sounds sick
one should really get concerned with a China threat if China focuses huge on building advanced anti ship weapons. they are not there yet for a cost vs gain operation...but they are working on upgrading to make the cost worth the gain.
Lost some weight and take it as a compliment. 👍 I intend to watch your videos for some more years to come.
He is increasing
his power to weight ratio.
51:40 This is exactly India's stance forever. All that non-aligned stuff ... I believe that while they will have CATOBAR carriers they will far exceed the USN in long range missles and destroyers and cruisers. We are unable to build 4 Burkes a year!
Grazie.
Thank you to you!
In light of events since this video was made. I hope this video doesn't age poorly.
it all comes down to cost, both economic and foreign policy expansion.
I think the importance of the Malaca Strait is overstated. Chinese energy transition into renewables is unprecedented, and if the rate of adoption continues, China is likely to be carbon neutral by 2040. This means that by the early 2030s, China will be in a good position to handle a Malaca Strait blockade. With the bulk of power generation coming from renewables, inland energy imports could satisfy excess energy demand. These links are varied, ranging from the recently announced Iran-Pakistan pipeline (which could easily be extended to China), the new Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, and new pipeline projects in Central Asia to a Baku connection. Furthermore, new port links like the proposed Myanmar port-to-pipeline link and the further opening up of the Arctic Sea route enabling greater access to Russian energy links such as Yamal LNG.
Furthermore, closing the Malaca Strait would deal a brutal economic blow to Japan, ROK, Philipines, etc, as the US does not have the capacity to filtrate the traffic volume in the Indo-Pacific. This means that the blockade would be porous, or they would need to enforce a total blockade, devastating the ROK and Japanese economies (both of which are much more reliant on energy imports than China). Do you think these states would continue to host American occupation forces under energy/food shortages?
Lastly, while the PLA seems to be beefing up its amphibious force, I am not sure that a direct invasion would be their preferred route. Seeing the effectiveness of the Houthin blockade (which the US and its allies are unable to lift), why wouldn't China, with its superior long-range drone/missile technology, be able to enforce a blockade around Taiwan (which has 1-3 months of energy supplies) to force reunification negotiations. This would leave the island's infrastructure largely intact and reduce the exposure of the PLAN to American AShMs. And if the whole thing devolves into an attritional war, well, we all know who the world's industrial champion is.
With the new Russia China strategic cooperation the Malacca straits importance decreases even more. Putin has announced in his speech in Harbin recently that China no longer has to worry about energy and resource security. Once the US and allies decide to block the water trade routes China will no longer be doing business as usual. China will understand that a full on war is here. No longer will they be making sneakers for selling to Walmart and Costco. The factories will go into military production mode. Meaning no more millions of DJI drones as toys for Xmas around the world but new firmware upgrades and explosive payloads will be snapped on overnight. They'll have plenty of strategic reserves to last years since China has been preparing for this day for a long time. China might not have every type of import they are getting now from around the world but more than enough from Russia to get basic food and raw materials to last for as long as it takes. This is one of the fundamental reasons why the West has always wanted to keep Russia and China separate in the first place.
Which is probably why USA is talking about starting the war against China by 2025...
Not to mention China's massive increase in military buildup since 2022, including massive modernisation and increased size of its nuclear arsenal.
The bulk of anyone's power won't be renewables. The problem with climate alarmism is most of the world renewable energy wealth is in the developing world, and the world is moving to nuclear anyways. It's not about carbon, it's about geopolitics.
@@ASpyNamedJames "The bulk of anyone's power won't be renewables."
You really have no clue do you.
Norway today runs its powergrid 88% on hydropower.
Canada, Venezuela and Brazil has over 60% of their electricity from hydropower.
Even huge China gets 14% of its power from hydro.
As of 2021 there were 31 nations in the world that gets more than half their electricity from hydropower.
"and the world is moving to nuclear anyways."
You say that, after the decade in which Germany completely shut down its nuclear power and Japan drastically reduced their use?
Sweden shut down 1/3 of its nuclear power etc etc etc...
If war happens, China will use third country ship to buy oil anyway. China will literally buy oil from every ASEAN country and let them smuggle oil for them. Just like Russia oil now.
can you tell me China's northern sea routes near Russia??😃😃
China will never start a war unless there's no other option - read sun tsu.
"yeah, that's right!" -vietnam, pre-feb 1979
So you think the CCP and president of China are going to stick to sun tsu? I personally doubt it. China is turning back to an authoritarian leader. It’s always had it’s one party system but the party encompassed more views than it does today.
Wrong, Sun Tzu said never start war until you already won eheh
"China will never start a war unless there's no other option - read sun tsu."
Problem is, USA is very quickly removing all other options, by deliberately moving towards open war.
They're even openly discussing how to start war with China by 2025.
@@russellmz read wiki, you will know the reason behind it.
What about this *_arctic sea route_* that Russia and China are supposedly working on? Doesn't that bypass all these vulnerabilities of Malacca Strait, Indian ocean, etc?
I would argue it being worse due to its proximity to US Alaska.
@@eoghan- - nah, Bering Strait is not a choke point. Russia and even North Korea are there also.
It doesn't help them get to the Persian Gulf.
General Douglas MacArthur famously said "Taiwan is an unsinkable aircraft carrier". That highlights its strategic importance. These days, Taiwan is strategically important to the world. If war destroys Taiwan's semiconductor industry, then the whole world faces shortages of parts and components for making drones, satellites, missiles, communications, iphones ... To China, Taiwan reunification is everything. Back before Korean War, Mao wanted to fight Americans on Korean peninsula, but all his top generals except one wanted Taiwan reunification war. It turned out Mao was right, China cannot resolve Taiwan issue without resolving problems with the US. So Taiwan issues were left until today.
Then stop using Taiwan as millitary base to contain China.
You got the timeline of Korean war vs Taiwan unification wrong. US seventh fleet blockaded Taiwan strait on the third day of Korean war. By the time Chinese government was debating whether to intervene in Korean war, the prospect of a Taiwan unification war was already gone.
there is no republic of taiwan. there is a Republic of CHINA, TAIWAN.
not cracks?! i got some bets to cancel then 😅
Why will Beijing attacks her own Province/ island....
👍
You are an intellectual. The term CCP is not applicable to the Communist Party of China (CPC).
This man knows his stuff..
yes, China can 100% pull it off. the cost is in question. China's proximity gives them an extreme advantage over Western nations that would attempt a defense of Taiwan.
The thing is China could end up squaring off against Taiwan, the United States, and Australia at the same time. I think Korea has too much to loose by getting involved so they wouldn't. I also doubt that the Philippines would get very much involved. The fact that China would have so many adversaries and no allies complicates things for the Chinese, especially the involvement of the United States and Japan. In my estimation, the one factor mitigating the narrowing of naval capacity between China and the United States is the increasing naval ambition of Japan. China can catch up to and possibly exceed the U.S. Navy, but I'm not sure it can do that to the combined USN and the MSDF.
Interesting analysis but i disagree to some extent. I just can't think that the Americans will risk (conventional or nuclear)ww3 in order to protect Taiwan. And in this ww US mainland will be hit. Although even a conventional ww will be catastrophic for China it will be worse for America since its population is well let's say on the brink of civil war.
You really think that the American economy will not completely collapse and several million will die when the world trade ceases? Hardship might be acceptable to some level in China. But in America there will be endless riots and looting if the Walmart closes down for a week.
So i think the strategy of China is to make it clear that if you hurt us, we'll hurt you back as well. Taiwan isn't worth it.
Honestly Taiwan isn't worth it from either side and they're both trying to act like the bigger idiot to make the other flinch. China will only invade Taiwan if Xi's wortied about losing his grip on power
China's would collapse first, & one of the many reasons China is crazy to do any of this. The US isn't full of over close to a billion mostly senior citizens who import over 80+% of everything. The US is surrounded by friends north, south, east, & west. China has next to none.
Hmmm, you shot this video in April? Right now, the Fujian is undergoing sea trials.
Yes, there’s another video about it
A good analysis, but lacking for essential aspects.
A conflict for world supremacy between the US and China would involve all the other powers in a third world war, so every scenario must be taken into account, not only the Indian role, but also the Russian, European, Iranian, Turkish role, etc. There may also be reversals of alliances that are unthinkable today.
Before the world order finally collapses there will be several other nuclear powers: the Non-Proliferation Treaty could not stand and many powers are only one step away from having nuclear weapons. By the way, China is already multiplying its nuclear reaction force and the increase in the number and quality of its SSBNs is only a matter of time.
As China’s economic and political influence grows, many Chinese bases will be built on the ground in other countries, perhaps with "dual use" coverage.
Last, the number of China's STEM graduates every year is way higher than the US and its Western allies togheter: the long-term outcome in the technology race is certain
I would say: if you don’t want war, prepare the revolution, the only thing that can stop these crazy people
Unless Taiwan never declares independence！
They are already independent
@@user-lb8bg6kj9mThey have not declared independence
@@user-lb8bg6kj9m the Union and the Confederacy, which one arent America? Why the Union invaded the independence Confederacy?
@@user-lb8bg6kj9m "They are already independent"
Not officially no.
The century of humiliation started with the opium trade and opium wars, which involved all major powers including the US.
That is not the only cause of the issues China had. There were many more things that caused chinas decline.
@@Statueshop297 Care to give an example of something similar in magnitude and consequences?
@@timeflex all power's fall comes from inside reasons. all the difficulties from outside are just superficial. if it was not UK opium war, there would be VK or WK or UL salt war water war rice war that shows the Qing dynasty was rotting.
@@yuey0602 It wasn't the war that destroyed the Chinese economy and society, it was the opium addiction -- indeed from the inside. And it wasn't just the UK that benefited from that. United States, France and other powers were involved as well. It wasn't some kind of grand strategy to dethrone China, but a purely profit-driven enterprise -- 2000% annually was too much to resist.
@@timeflex I'm not criticizing your politic view either. I'm just saying all those things you listed ruined China then, were there because China was rotting, those were the results but not the reasons.
Not cracks….
Just remember that it's Chinese governments on both side of the strait. The position assumed by William Lai yesterday is that of Republic of China. PRC can simply offer to buy off the island with 100000 Yuan per adult and 10 years of income tax exemption whilst deporting 2 million ROC nationals back to the island. Taiwan Island is only 10% fuel and 40% food self sufficient and can't fight a drawn out war like Ukraine especially with no navy, airforce or even army comparable to just the pla corp stationed in South China
Amazing analysis about the possibility of a " worst käse" (meat cheese) scenario. Too bad we live in a crazy world,
I think that so long Russia is already struggling with Ukraine, even with the almost secret Help from China, they are smart enough to keep peace, because like you say one of the few countries that support China is not capable of sending help or export the things they need because of the export barricade that "West world" is putting on Russia.
Shout out to Otis, I miss that round guy, maybe is on vacation with the elephant 😂😂😂
Thank you Sir
"imports by category"
PROBLEM! You're looking at it purely on the basis of transactional VALUE in money!
Everything imported from USA is going to look much bigger than something imported from Russia or Vietnam.
Likewise, high tech will appear to be much bigger amounts than say, fruit.
.
"key consideration"
Guess why China is currently vacuuming the whole world for all sorts of commodities and setting up massive storages.
"to leave things as they are"
No, there's a BIG minority on Taiwan that DOES want reunification.
The problem is that USA has spent the last decades creating anti-China, total independence fanatics and general hate propaganda against China(AND they're doing the same in Philippines, Thailand, Myanmar etc etc).
And ACTIVELY PROMOTING Taiwanese independence at the same time as officially pretending to adhere to the "one China policy".
Which by now has been shown to be a complete and utter lie.
China is fine with letting reunification take 5 years or 500 years, they don't mind.
But INDEPENDENCE, specifically CAUSED by USA as part of USAs coming war against China?
That's a declaration of war or worse. Completely unacceptable, and not by a small margin.
It would be like telling USA to just accept Russia causing New York to seceede while China convinces California, Texas and the desert states to make their own nation.
While arming them.
And setting them up for war against USA.
And almost certainly putting nukes there.
Yeah no, that would not be acceptable to USA any more than USAs BS is to China.
And to top it off, USA is RIGHT NOW deploying special forces on several of the Taiwan islands closer to China.
That's like China putting troops in Mexico or Canada on USAs borders.
Without USAs meddling, there would likely have been a peaceful reunification before 2050.
"some other times"
That's not China being ambigous, that's China REACTING to the aggressive provocations from mostly USA.
"more symbolic value"
WRONG! USA is already working on using Taiwan against China exactly like they used Ukraine against Russia.
A battering ram right at the border.
And if there's any conflict and USA controls Taiwan, Chinese trade routes are at extreme risk.
Exactly the same way as Nato is parading Gotland in the Baltic as an "unsinkable carrier", the same but even more so is true for Taiwan.
"behaving exactly like any other emerging power"
BS! Complete RUBBISH!
China is investing instead of INVADING, China is trading instead of colonising. The difference should be bloody obvious!
Even more importantly, China is NOT trying to force other nations to submit to them, they're not conducting coups all over the globe.
They negotiate, they haggle until both sides are happy with the agreement. They USE DIPLOMACY.
Unlike the west and especially USA.
"on the right side"
USA murders, invades, destroys nations, deposes democracies and replaces them with dictators, the day USA is ethically and morally on the right side, it doesn't exist.
Noone sane and informed can believe USA are "on the right side". They're literally the biggest cancer on the world.
USA is ethically and morally closer to WWII Germany, Romania and Japan. Not Italy, because Italy wasn't evil enough even at their worse to warrant the comparison.
"several points of dispute"?!?
USA is literally trying to destroy China! How exactly is that a "point of dispute"?!?
USA has already attempted to order China to commit economic suicide FFS!
USA is literally saying that China isn't allowed to be rich enough to be a threat to USA, or USA must destroy China.
Politicians and military officers in USA are already planning the war to start 2025!
And the first with major power who said it openly was back in 2022!!!
USA is literally starting a war against China, which for China can only be existential.
Same stup1d!ty as when USA started the war against Russia.
"China has nukes to"
And since 2022, they are MASSIVELY upgrading them from a token force to a modern and MUCH LARGER force.
As that was when they were given blatant proof of just how completely untrustworthy the west and USA is.
"not expanding as you would expect"
China is currently absorbing a lot of submarine and ASW tech purchased from Russia. The plan is to start massproduction of new submarines AND ASW surface forces as soon as possible after they have managed to digest that information.
.
"152 in ROC"???
Wait, what? Did you just say that Taiwan has more longrange SAM batteries than half of Nato together?
Actually, strike that, more than 3/4 of Nato combined!
"but they have the strategic advantage"
USA? Who is currently running out of almost every kind of military hardware?
Who is on the brink of economic collapse.
Whose CURRENCY is on the brink of collapse.
Whose military have not been able to meet its recruiting goals for what, 11 years or something?
Whose military could not even IMAGINE the intensity of warfare in Ukraine.
Whose military is completely focused on playing whack-a-mole against 3rd rate nations who are completely unable to defend themselves.
Whose military shipyard industry is a BIG FAT JOKE.
Whose military industry overall is an even bigger and even more EXPENSIVE joke.
Who is very determinedly turning India against them by trying to force them to not remain neutral AND, and even worse, trying to prepare for the day when India must be cut down to size along with Russia and China. The manufactured "religious discontent" spread from Canada about India is literally making India become absolutely furious. It is actually not at all impossible, that if China REACTS to US aggression or direct manipulation of Taiwan, that USAs counter to a Chinese war, could push India into becoming aggressively neutral in favor of China. And if USA keeps up the incompetence, even outright open military support of China is not impossible. India is getting THAT ANGRY.
Saudi Arabia has already given USA a massive one-finger salute and told Washington to go f*** themselves.
Not to mention everyone else USA and the west has made enemies in the last 2 years.
Can i mention again the fact that the USD is one step from crashing? And only the fact that Russia and China are PREVENTING it from crashing is keeping it up. Or the fact that USA right now is spending TWICE as much as it is taking in from all taxes and income sources. And increasing its national debt by 1 trillion every 3 months.
It is so bad, that even USA-controlled IMF has warned USA TWICE in 2 months now, that their economy is going out of control.
"wont attack until ready"
Except for the fact that USA is OPENLY PLANNING TO START THE WAR WITH CHINA SOON.
Er, are you okay? You've got a lot to say, and a lot of it is on the money, but I don't think India is going over to China until they figure out their border disputes. India's complicated. Their mortal enemy is Pakistan with whom China has a loving relationship. China and India have their own disputes over worthless land that nobody lives on. You'd think this would be the easiest territory to negotiate, but neither side is willing to relinquish an inch of what they feel is theirs.
I don't know how I feel about the U.S. economy. I recognize all the weaknesses that you point out, but people have been predicting the coming collapse of the American dollar as long as people have been predicting the coming collapse of China. All either prediction seems to do is ruin prediction records.
@@alanfriesen9837 "but I don't think India is going over to China until they figure out their border disputes."
It's not so much that INDIA is changing their line, it's the WEST that are messing around so much, including starting to use the same demonisation/dehumanisation and the "you're abusing human rights" melody that was used against Russia and China...
Basically, India is TRYING to remain strictly neutral, but the west are shoving them hard towards siding with Russia and China, no matter what India would prefer.
"China and India have their own disputes over worthless land that nobody lives on. You'd think this would be the easiest territory to negotiate, but neither side is willing to relinquish an inch of what they feel is theirs."
Perfectly true, however, both nations are entirely capable of acting like adults and completely ignore their outstanding disputes, if they get a common enemy to cooperate against.
"I don't know how I feel about the U.S. economy. I recognize all the weaknesses that you point out, but people have been predicting the coming collapse of the American dollar as long as people have been predicting the coming collapse of China. All either prediction seems to do is ruin prediction records."
All previous predictions about US economy has not been wrong, they have been negated by various, sometimes highly questionable shenanigans.
Right now, the only reason the USD isn't doing worse is because USA is forcing its vassals to buy bonds en masse.
Including all the European vassals that USA has murdered the economy of, meaning that there's a very hard limit on how long they are CAPABLE of keeping up that bondbuying.
And the simple fact is that USA is printing more money than Weimar.
It currently spends TWICE as much as it earns, which has NEVER happened before.
USA's debt increases by a TRILLION every 3 months, AND the national debt to GDP is over 120%.
None of the above would be sustainable even if the US economy was otherwise healthy.
Problem is, USAs economy overall is al doing outright TERRIBLE.
With Bidens epic level idiocies making things WORSE.
Meanwhile, BRICS and several members of OPEC are gradually dropping the dollar both for trade and as reserve currency.
And the USD being the "petrodollar" and the world's trade and reserve currency is the ONLY thing keeping it from crashing.
So no, a US economy crash IS coming, i don't know if it's even theoretically possible to prevent it anymore, and Bidenomics are making it worse every day.
However, the EU crash is already happening, which is badly affecting USAs trade with EU, and combined with suicide sanctions against China also coming soon, USA may kickstart the crash early.
If not, it's likely going to take several years before the crash is fully realised.
Not because of USA, but because China and Russia are intentionally trying to avoid an instant crash.
Oops almost forgot, but let me guess, only Numb Nuts Trump can save us all from the path of the evil US. I'm out.
China's advantage is mitigated by it's much larger coastlines and area. The gorilla analogy really doesn't apply very well. If China were to engage Taiwan with a big advantage they would have to leave many other areas weakened or undefended. It's very similar to the Ukraine/Russia situation. Russia has left themselves open to attack by concentrating their best assets in Ukraine. Same thing would happen if China were to attack Taiwan.
Yes, though it might be foolish to assume what I'm about to suggest, I don't think the United States would attack the Chinese mainland because I don't think we're stupid enough to start a nuclear war over Taiwan (though I would understand if you disagree with me).
its not the only remnant of the century of humiliation, there is a much more obvious bit that Russia pinched off the Chinese in 1853. They still want that bit back too and sooner or later Putin is going to discover that Chinese support will have a cost.
What if Thailand finally creates the Kra channel? That will be a gamechanger.
Yes, it would be. But that is a huge project that will take years if not a decade. China occupies Islands that Thailand claims and China's duplicity in megaprojects in other countries pose real threats to this strategic goal.
@@ronmaximilian6953 克拉运河如果开通，给泰国带来的利益远远超过他们跟中国的争议岛屿，国家交往是以利益为前提的
@@ronmaximilian6953 not thailand. thailand is far away. china would support kra channel for sure. it would be more direct route for big ships. maybe you mean vietnam or philly
Kra is a scam, it would not carry enough traffic to make a dent. what Thailand is really trying to do is to turn Kra into a hub, where they can do intermediate processing of goods. which is a good plan, but it totally different from what people think it is going to do.
@@jebise1126
That "ron" is a China hater .
And India
peaceful reunification while preparing for worst case scenario which is war. i dunno why you are so confused about that. any competent military prepares for all scenarios especially worst case. you need to stop talking about taiwan-china relations if you cant even understand this simple idea.
I can see you are a student of the great prof Mearsheimer too, given your understanding great powers and their political interplays. Thanks for all the hard work, mate.
7:37
22:14
54:00
Even well before that date, my projection is China will have 10 air-craft carrier groups with 4 posted in the Pacific, 3 in the Indian Ocean and 3 in the Atlantic Ocean! How about it?
8/10 is possible, but not in the Atlantic
It will be all in East Pacific
Why would there be Chinese carriers in the Atlantic?
Most of their stuff will be in the Pacific, plenty of territory to cover, and some in the Indian Ocean.
Signiore I wish you health and iron nerves. Especially when you have to read and swallow the parroting commentariat (not all happily) . My regards to Otis.
PS: on the issue at hand four important factors at play: a) the sustainability of US macroeconomic future, b) the overall will of some of the western allies to endanger their future to support US shenanigans, c) the, as in your video, future of Indo-Chinese relations, and d) the extent of measures the other nuclear superpower is willing to apply since China is not yet in the same level. The best moment for US was yesterday. It is possible now so they have to act. Time will tell. Expect for the worse or move to Malvinas
53:30 Can two carriers allow China to neutralize and occupy Singapore, when the latter has 40 F-15SG's and 59 F-16 Block 52's plus AWACs and plenty of SAMs?
I thinks Singapore already occupied by US as semivasal state.
question is why should china want to occupied singapore?
US taking Singapore, very highly likely.
@@leoremus6379 base on what reason?
US military bases in Korea, Japan or phillipines is half the distance as compared to Singapore. Singapore have deep water ports, good logistics and communications, ships and aircraft repairs and other favorable facilities and is a strategic location. To be a enemy of US is dangerous, to be a friend is fatal. Partially answer your ❓ ❓ ❓.
Chinese perspective:
1. millitary wise, Taiwan is in China's pocket already, and the only meaningful question remains is how much it's gonna cost for China to retake the island. it's gonna bite, yes, but as soon as China wanna take it by force, it's done. end of discussion.
2. China is patient. China's rising is the mega trend of the world and history, and it's the manifestation of the will and wish of 1.4 billion hard working Chinese ppl. it's hard and unwise to arrogantly just dismiss the will of 1/6 of whole world's population. it bites, but eventually China can resolve this island problem one way or another when it's on the top rather than when it's climbing the hills.
3. with above understandings, you will see more clearly what the current Taiwan administration is trying to achieving and provoking.
This reads perhaps a bit too optimistic
Also, I just don't get the third point
@@andresmartinezramos7513 google probably don't like my reply, it goy censored
There is actually another remnant of the century of humiliation: Northern Manchuria
The last piece of China that is still annexed by a European power based on one of the "unequal treaties. It's currently held by Russia
Russia is not exactly a European power. It spreads from Europe to Asia. Modern day Europe ends at the Russian border.
its not..
equal or not, China and Russia have settled all border dispute by modern treaties, not the Qing dynasty ones.
@@yuey0602 Sure they did, but that didn't stop China from changing their official maps last year, changing Valdivostok to Haishenwai
@@Paultarco those places has traditional Chinese names though, the names are in () after Russian names, for a really loooong time. and the Aihui treaty was not really an unequal treaty, these places which have traditional Chinese names were not undoubtedly in Chinese border then, they surely had connections in the history though. and you really cant see borders then as the same concept in modern world before Westphalian sovereignty system established.
@@yuey0602 In that case you can say the same about a lot of parts of modern day China. China today largely claims the borders of the former Qing dynasty, so if we say those borders aren't meaningful then what happens to the claims on Taiwan, or Tibet or Inner Mongolia and a large chunk of western China?
let's not PREDICATE the invasion, cause it is planned and scheduled in 3 years. but we can discuss the scenario of being occupation or invading, what the reaction of its neighbors? does india sit quietly to watch the warfare escalating? how about Philippine?
20:30 Just a minute detail: its supposed to be Communist Party of China, ie Communism is more important for them, than nationality, ie. CPC not CCP.
actually no, CPC is because KMT is also call "KMT of China". why this is so is legacy, KMT was banned by the Beiyang government, so KMT has to reconstitute with a new name "KMTC" for accounting reasons. that's their official name. and CPC being a part of KMT during this period of history, has similar name convention. and if you read it in Chinese literally, it is actually China Communist Party because of the way Chinese grammar works. corrected to english grammar, it is Communist Party of China.
I think that’s what the official title is but everyone knows it’s the Chinese communist party
Chinese communist party, CCP
It can go either way but it is referred to as the latter when talking about the govt, not china as a whole.
CCP is the term often used, not CPC.
@@demscrazy6574 yes the government is the CCP. No population supports there ruling party 100%. There will always be some that given a choice would pick some other way
Quindi sei italiano allora
It’s a big mess
The Malacca Strait isn't just China's jugular, it's Japan and South Korea's jugular. If the US tries blockading it, Japan and South Korea will instantly become Chinese allies, unless the ENTIRE US Navy and Marine Corps is devoted to inspecting each individual ship crossing the strait and allowing Japanese and South Korean ships to pass through- an ENORMOUS opportunity cost that will guarantee the US loses.
It's ridiculous how so many people miss this.
You have no idea do you! talk about a one eyed Chinese skewered view! Your stating Japan and South Korea instantly change Allies and favours China!!🤣 lol Japan knows who is the aggressor, who is the autocratic dictatorship bully in the Asia, that's why they are gearing up against China with US, Australia, Philippines, Singapore etc and the list gets longer, as China do not have many friends or Allies with democratic views.
If China invades Taiwan there is only one way it's going to go down, with many nations against China and Allied to the West or become more Allied to the west.
The straights can be by-passed by US Allied nations, via the Pacific/Northern Australia route to the Indian Ocean and the US Navy/Air force operating from Australia and Australia forces will dominate that area, thus Allied nations free to pass, enemy not so!
Boss- you speak of china constantly improving and expanding capabilities/experience. US and its allies are not standing still with their hands in their pockets watching all this occur- alot of these chinese capabilities maybe of no concern or lessened by western advances. 2049 is a ways off
Elon musk was laughing at Chinese BYD 10 years ago. What is happening right now? All the wars happening with US, China is also observing.
A lot could happen in either direction. Right now though China's edge in industrial capacity is enormous, and their cost of production is much lower than that of the United States. Chines capacity could stagnate or collapse. American capacity, which I would argue is already stagnant or very close to it, could also collapse. It could also pick up, but I struggle to see that occurring with our political issues.
One can only hope that the powers in the US are taking this damn serious as this will be for all the marbles if we don't. This won't just be about Taiwan, so I hope we're taking this seriously & planning well because this will be for keeps.
Not rumble You ramble
Lol China
You forgot the belt and road inititive which is building the land route for the import and export.
True, but it is still small in comparison with what can be transported by sea.
imagine importing fuel by road from the middle east
@@Millennium7HistoryTech Thanks for the reply. :) True, it is smaller. But just wait a few more years. :)
Imagine oil and gas pipelines from Iran and Russia going through Kazakhstan taking advantage of the supplies in the Caspian Sea. China is building these. They are also building additional pipelines from Siberia. I sincerely doubt that China will move on Taiwan until these are complete. @@adamroodog1718
@@Millennium7HistoryTech Don't get me wrong, I agree with you, but China and Russia is going to build Power of Siberia 2 pipeline. It's going to carry 50 Bcm (billion cubic metres of natural gas) a year.
China current import of LNG is 89.4 Bcm
US bases are mostly islands, this does not grant US strategic depth and make asset dispersing almost impossible. so I don't believe US can even beat China today. neither the fleet nor bases are ready for a war. without the Israeli war, US may have a chance, but with all the equipment diverted to Israel, those bases are abit more empty than they should be. the real danger here is US still think it has a chance to win when it doesn't.
so why is china building islands then if not for asset disbursement and control. your first statement is false on its face. second the usa is not currently on a war footing or war econ. if it decides to do that supplies would come pretty quick. while american manufacturing is a low percent of econ the millitary man sector has been kept going all along. things can change very quick if usa decides to pay the price. as for the fleet being ready one could argue that the usn has more experience and training than the nascent chinese which are at the beginning of their learning curve when it comes to naval operations. while i abhor us war mongering i also abhor chinese or anyone elses war mongering. the chinese contrary to popular belief and their own crappy propaganda arent that popular in their own back yard. most of aisa would prob turn against them in a war because they are so greedy and controlling with their neighbors. sadly this is also true for the usa in latin america. 50 years of bad behavior. and all this is coming from someone who really does not like the usa mic.
The US is reactivating its bases in the Philippines but not with fanfare and slowly so as not to upset the natives.
@@marsmotionwhy? Simple. To anchor their claim at the SCS. Just look at the Ukraine war. It is a war of drones and missiles. He who produces more of those than the other guy wins. The Us is 10000 miles away from China and they are messing at its backyard. The Chinese have an entire continent behind Fujian coasts. The US have islands and aircraft carriers. The Chinese can strike anywhere from their shores, the US no matter how they disperse will be intercepted. In the end, when you have fighting hypersonic missiles that is 10 million a piece using a floating platform that is worth 1 billion each, you are going to lose, no matter what.
islands like japan Guam and the Philippines.
Lol.. china and Russia have funded Iran and Syria and all is'raels neighbors it can for a reason... It is the American oligarchs soft spot, international Zio'nisms soft spot is this nation...
China and Russia have applied just the smallest amount of pressure here, a long with getting nations to bypass swift and the US dollar will cripple the Americans dollar empire which is financially weak atm.
Taiwan China 🇨🇳 not country lol 😂
Pr. Eldridge said in a recent conference that invasion might occur around US election or in the 1st quarter of 2025. Not later.
But your arguments are good too.
Nonsense.
It all depends on whether or not the ruling DPP decides to abolish the ROC 🇹🇼 in Taiwan province.
Ccp
You really have to review your language, how can China attack itself? No, the word is incorrect. Perhaps a better word is to recover the island of Taiwan. Otherwise just use the official name: Republic of CHINA
Apologies with all due respect, if Taiwan stops supplying chips either to China / West, that will litmus test whether it's just symbolic. I'm speaking as a Chinese person (heritage & ancestry)
Sleepy Joe: Will China attack Taiwan or not?
Director of CIA: China won't attack Taiwan unless it has decided to attack Taiwan.😂
Sleepy Joe: Am I dreaming?😜
I refuse to believe it's not a crack, it is a crack...
Interesting video. Taiwan isn't the last part of 'rectifying the century of humiliation' as far as China is concerned, but it is a major part. They have border disputes with 13 countries including Russia, as the Chinese want back the area ceded under the Treaty of Aigun, which includes Vladivostok.
You can see why they are slowly drawing Indian military north and seesawing the Australian relationship… historically Australia was a massive rest , planning, staging and storage facility
Before international global surveillance, and before precision intercontinental weapons.
America and Australia are spending billions on tindel for b52s to be stabled... Who are are military leaders kidding.... This weapon is only usable with total air dominance..
Russia spends all its big money on missiles and submarines for a reason.. surface fleets are a waste, and easy targets,
Australia = 🇺🇲🐑
As a typical Chinese person, I genuinely want to discuss this topic with my Western friends, especially those from Europe and America. You can take a broader view, looking further ahead, rather than getting caught up in whether China has launched another aircraft carrier or whether this year its naval tonnage accounts for 50% of the world's total. Roughly speaking, it's the equivalent of the entire tonnage of the Royal Navy each year, but I can tell you clearly that if we wanted to, we could build naval ships every year equivalent to ten times the total tonnage of the Royal Navy.
Focusing on this is pointless; let's talk about arithmetic, history, and geography.
I know there’s a stereotype among Western friends that Chinese people are all proficient in math and physics. Personally, I wasn’t bad at these subjects until I graduated from university. But it's still a stereotype.
Here’s the question: Can a nation proficient in math and physics, with a population of 1.4 billion and a long history, remain weak for long? It doesn't make sense.
Let’s talk about the issue you’re concerned with-Taiwan.
I want to share a story. About 30 years ago, an American guy came to China as a tourist. Somehow, we became friends.
One day, I jokingly but somewhat melancholically told him that if one day China and the U.S. went to war over Taiwan, I hoped he would join the army instead of the navy. He asked why. I said that China was too weak; we might still have to use the old plan against the Soviet Union, the so-called "one-way ticket to Siberia" (using outdated aircraft with insufficient range to carry hydrogen bombs for suicidal attacks). If a war broke out between China and the U.S., I would volunteer as a suicide pilot carrying a hydrogen bomb to destroy the American imperialist aircraft carrier fleet, etc.
The American friend laughed so hard he couldn’t catch his breath! I told him I envied him because he could laugh while I couldn't. Because you are the chosen ones, even if we don't count history, just look at the past century: what if Washington, D.C., were occupied, and 300,000 Americans were massacred and buried alive? What if the invaders used Americans as subjects for biological experiments with unimaginably cruel methods? (Search for Unit 731). What if tens of millions of Americans were ultimately killed? I envy you because you have never carried such a heavy historical burden.
His smile disappeared, and he comforted me. He was a kind and good guy!
Back to Taiwan. Taiwan, in the past, present, and future, has always been Chinese territory. While the core territories of China were integrated around 4,000 years ago, Taiwan has belonged to China at least since the time of Alexander Severus-during which period, there were only a few nations. Japan and Korea were already established, that’s true.
We cannot give up Taiwan.
Chairman Mao, in his twenties, wrote an elegy to the Yellow Emperor (the ancestor of the Chinese nation; we refer to ourselves as the descendants of the Yan and Yellow Emperors) in which he said, in classical Chinese, that if the Korean Peninsula were invaded, Taiwan couldn’t be defended.
History and reality have proven that Chairman Mao was right! So in the 1950s, even though we couldn’t manufacture rifles and bullets, we still fought in the Korean War!
By the way, the Soviet Union, despite its own interests, provided us with enormous support, especially militarily.
I am forever grateful to the great Russian people and will always remember the help they provided during our most difficult times.
It's not the 1950s now. Today's China, whether in light or heavy industry, is the world leader. And it's basically more significant than the combined totals of the second to tenth places.
Taiwan is extremely important to us; we are prepared to fight a world war for it. The U.S. cannot do the same; for the U.S., Taiwan is a lightweight pawn that can be abandoned at any time. As for Europe, I estimate that most European citizens don’t even know where Taiwan is...
Actually, I now have a guess: the CCP is too clever; Taiwan is a card that hasn't been played yet. It unites the will of the entire nation and also entices the U.S. Seventy percent of U.S. military forces are stationed in the Asia-Pacific, mainly to prevent China. But China keeps quietly launching new fleets while Eastern Europe and the Middle East distract U.S. forces.
It’s a cycle.
In the end, how many people does the U.S. have? A few hundred million? How many are white? 150 million? And their age? It's hard to say. If I say more, it would be too blunt. You know what I mean.
As for Europe, I have hope for France. According to Chairman Mao, France is still a major country with a bit of independence. Germany is not; after two world wars, its backbone has been broken, and it has always looked to the U.S. for direction.
The worst in Europe is the UK. It’s a mini version of the U.S., and Japan is an even smaller version of the UK. In short, they are all island nations. South Korea is a bit of both, being a peninsula nation. Believe it or not, if China wins a decisive battle against the U.S., South Korea will be the first to bow, because they have a 2,000-year history of submission to China, which has formed a muscle memory.
Back to Taiwan.
China will and must unify Taiwan. Aircraft carrier fleets? We can build 50 of them. Type 055 destroyers? We can build 1,000. It’s just steel. China has plenty.
usa built over 150 aircraft carriers in ww2
Do you lay in bed at night and wonder why millions of humans, from all over the world freely choose pursue a dangerous journey to illegally immigrate to America and Europe? and yet literally no one is trying to illegally migrate to CPC controlled China. What is the magic ingredient that the CPC doesn't have ?
Dude, you're bloated. Don't learn from India. You are good at math and physics, but how much is 50 aircraft carriers and 1000 055 destroyers? How many facilities to support? China's existing weapons can compete with any country in the world. You have a deep patriotic heart. Let's not rush. Time is on our side.
@@user-mh3kp7we7i Modern aircraft carriers are very different from World War II aircraft carriers, and the United States is now deindustrialized and unable to support a larger military industry
@@lmn6335 Nice try. The USA rapidly industrialized and built up our industry from scratch in response to Pearl Harbor. The Japanese admiral in charge said he feared that his action had awoken a sleeping dragon. Underestimate America at your peril. And by the way, aircraft carrier technology was Japanese expertise and Forte at the time. Americans are underdogs.
As much as I admire this channel for it's great amount of accurate information, comparing China with Taiwan is a futile exercise as a war with Taiwan would mean a war with the U.S..
When the Soviets were in East-Germany, they had to compare their forces with NATO forces, not with West-German forces alone.
China is very well aware that a conflict with Taiwan will not be confined to a regional conflict. U.S. forces will enter the conflict through a real incident or a manufactured one, and, of course, Japan and, at least, the UK will enter the conflict at one point or another.
So, shortly after China launches an invasion (from a few days to a few weeks), it will not be facing Taiwan alone.
If the NATO force appears in frontline of Ukraine 2022, I may believe your opinion
@@seraphimworms899 I think that Russia is not a threat to U.S. dominance in the Pacific.
I could be wrong.
US won't fight China over Taiwan.. US is just portraying..
Since when US ever fought a direct war against another superpower for the reason of others
@@leoarc1061 Russia is the only threat of NATO, you can check the history of NATO
@@seraphimworms899 We are talking about China and the U.S. here. I don't see what NATO has to do with it.
As long as the world depends on microchips from Taiwan they can be reasonably confident that the world would back their independence. They can see how well the world is at crippling an economy just by looking at Ukraine.
What crack have you been smoking.
If Taiwan declares independence right now, not even America will back Taiwan. The rest of the US ally won't even matter from then on.
You have three typos in the word "west" 😁
I don't think Russia, Middle East, Africa or even India mind their semiconductors being from the bigger China. And isn't US already working to onshore the critical semiconductor production? The West will probably get them from there then.
Not really ...
U$Ass have forced ROC 🇹🇼 semiconductors mfg'ers to set-up factories in Murica and Japan.
The moment these factories begun production ... DPP will declare "independence" vis-a-vis abolishment of ROC 🇹🇼 in Taiwan.
@@aleksandrs1422
India will not want it's semiconductors to come from China.
It is building out it's own semiconductor facilities and rather depend on US for critical supplies.
Same for Russia which is more wary of China than United States.
@@user-lb8bg6kj9m Meh, it's different for Russia. NATO problems aside, Russia diplomatic core is able to make peace and enable trade with anybody on the globe. Russia would prefer to have multiple redundant supplies.
India sure has issues with China but they're not insurmountable. I would say they're solvable in say 20 to 30 years. I could be wrong. Sill I believe China will exert any soft power measure it has to win over hearts and minds there and the countries actually don't have fundamental security differences, they will make very robust.. if not allies, then partners.