12.1) What is 'Walk Forward Analysis' and how does it improve Trading System Optimizations

แชร์
ฝัง
  • เผยแพร่เมื่อ 1 ม.ค. 2025

ความคิดเห็น • 15

  • @leonjbr
    @leonjbr 4 ปีที่แล้ว +7

    Clear and useful.

    • @martyntinsley
      @martyntinsley 4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      As always, thanks for the feedback Leon

  • @MrA1wizard
    @MrA1wizard ปีที่แล้ว +1

    This great work. Thank you for this.

  • @ulziibaatar2369
    @ulziibaatar2369 4 ปีที่แล้ว +6

    What is best period interval for novice algo traders?

    • @martyntinsley
      @martyntinsley 4 ปีที่แล้ว +4

      Hi Ulzil. Can I recommend that you watch the next episode (Episode 13) where I hopefully answer your question in quite a lot of detail. You can find it here: th-cam.com/video/sjm60E3IXms/w-d-xo.html
      Hope this helps

  • @caioagrizzi
    @caioagrizzi 3 ปีที่แล้ว +6

    impossible to be clearer

  • @bsbrosentertainment8637
    @bsbrosentertainment8637 3 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    Having to optimize 4 parameters, (if I understood) it is better to do two optimizations​ with two parameters at a time.
    Parameters: A (A1-A10) B(B1-B10) C(C1-C10) D(D1-D10)
    Therefore,​ first optimization A and B, and second​ ​ C and D.
    Example first scan best result A3 B9, the second scan in order to optimize C and D will be done with the parameters of first scan A3 and B9.
    Is it correct? Of course doing a walk forward optimization TF5m 4mounth+1 I'll repeat it for 5 times (forward 1 month per time) as your webinar WFO.
    Is it correct?

  • @diegosoto6516
    @diegosoto6516 3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Great stuff...u Say un one of tour videos that one shouldn't optimizw more than at most 3 parameters...but what happens ir i'm teeting a strategy which has Lot of parameters...more than 10...moreover what happens i'm the scenario un which i'm looking for the Best combinación of múltiple strategies...with fixed parameters...

  • @specialagentslowhand
    @specialagentslowhand 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Great content. What does it mean if the walk forward (out-sample) performance is better than optimized (in-sample) performance? Similarly, what if each phase seems to improve? I would expect performance to degrade over time. Thank you for this!

  • @muammaranwar6971
    @muammaranwar6971 3 ปีที่แล้ว

    Can i do it in metastock? Has metastock's system tester included Walk-Forward Analysis in its backtesting and optimization?

  • @hugh2200
    @hugh2200 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    Where can I get the excel walk-forward file?

  • @nehemaialord2653
    @nehemaialord2653 3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    This would be hard to do on the daily timeframe because of the low historical data. I trade on the daily timeframe because it’s the best timeframe

  • @lukexu4845
    @lukexu4845 4 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    Wouldn't it also be viable to have a long optimization phase and having a system which is adjusted all market conditions? Suffering lower returns short term seems like a good trade-off for a system that can perform well regardless of market conditions. Curious is all. Thanks for the vids!

    • @TradeLikeAMachine
      @TradeLikeAMachine 4 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Hi Luke. I think I understand what you mean. So during the longer opt period, your system would have an ability to adapt real-time based on what the market is doing, right? If so then yes, absolutely. This is a very viable approach. But if your system doesn't do this , then WFA is a great alternative to stay in tune with conditions. Hope this helps. Cheers, Martyn

    • @marcovalentinoalvarado3290
      @marcovalentinoalvarado3290 3 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      In the other hand... I think the opposite, I strongly believe, that any model specifically designed for a market condition (I.E ranging market) that trades on that specific condition is healthier for the equity curve rather than having a model that trades at any market condition, that way you can design another model for example, designed for momentum trading, and *bring up the concept of diversification up a little bit better...* I don't remember where I've heard that trying to design a model with great performance in all market conditions is just innocent and such model should not be attempted to achieve. Speaking of... Martyn Tinsley here have made a few videos about how important "Diversification" is! Check 'em out!