In my area…houses are starting to stay on the market much longer, prices being cut quickly/significantly and contracts are falling through….imo..tides are shifting.
A townhome in my area just sold for 10k over asking. Another one sold for 15k over asking the same day. I’m in the northeast. They didn’t stay on the market for a week.
@@Jack-pd4ps in Connecticut is awful. There are more houses for sale but still short for demand. I was looking at recently sold houses and everything is selling for 60-100k over asking which is insane to me, even saw one that selling price was 500k and when for 705k. how are people affording that and bank approving loans on overvalued houses? I have been on the market to buy for three years now and I am feeling that I am price out at this point.
Jason, here is a data point that I'd like to see that I find very interesting. How many of the houses currently listed are houses that were bought within the past 3-4 years. Noticing a trend in my area and just wondering percentages throughout the state. Don't know if this is possible to breakdown, but again it's very interesting. Thanks for your work
If/when inventory should increase, prices will drop rapidly. 25% of homes in my zip have price reductions, despite inventory remaining flat. Consumer debt soaring, student loan payment restarting soon, credit tightening, and nearly 25% of applications for homes and vehicles are denied. Talk to your neighbors, most of mine are curbing spending habits now, myself included.
I rechecked my Bills because of Blogs. Cut monthly house bills $300 then 1/1 SS gave me $200 cash COLA. SO $800 before taxes First step no need to cut back Spend More.. 😁😁
Yes, I'd like a video about new home builders. I've been looking in northern NV, northern CA and southern OR. Although builders are offering some incentives, most of their prices start at about $500,000 minimum and I'm only seeing a few reductions on that.
They wanted it to be the best time in history to buy a house but it actually ended up being quite the opposite. Lots of people are delusional and think their house is worth more than it was a year ago 😂
In escrow with new build and exactly what Jason said is what we are looking at. Lennar offered $20,000 ( including rate buy down) in incentives on a new build, it’s actually the model home with beautiful upgrades, appliances, landscaping with premium lot. Have bought with Lennar before and had a good experience with their process. Due to close escrow in September 🤞
Hello, could someone tell me, is the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index reliable information source and how it is measured? As a foreigner it looks strange that U.S. housing markets seem to be immune to interest rate changes.
It's astounding how clear it is what is happening - nobody is listing their homes and thus sales are way down but prices are steady or even up a bit. Last year's prices were a small bubble that never burst, they've just corrected with time by staying roughly even. Something big must happen to alter this new equilibrium - job losses or an impressive interest rate change would do the trick. But good luck waiting for those things to happen. I continue to think there won't be a big buying op for several years.
People losing their jobs isn’t a good thing, just because it opens up an opportunity for you to profit. Smh This country deserves the disaster that’s coming.
Historically, we have seen that when the stock market falls, job loses accelerate. Right now, foreclosure filings are up over 60% year over year. Home values will fall dramatically, as this phenomenon persists. Votes have consequences...
You look GREAT Jason, with or without your beard! I thought it was kind of funny watching your daily shaving habits unfold. I think you need a crystal ball to predict this market but all the data points you bring to the table help!
It makes sense that people would move to new homes. They come with warranties and depending upon the state of construction, you get to pick out colors, flooring, appliance packages, etc. In general, I suspect that many of the people buying have substantial liquid assets or credit availability. We have a new small development by us of 10 or so homes and one buyer backed out. The listing went to online and was snapped up in a day. It would be great to see if the price range of homes selling has moved upward, which could imply that the buyers have larger asset availability.
There's not much negotiation with new. It's pretty much like going to a store .. take it or leave it .. kind of thing... They may offer incentives, but I've never heard of a builder changing their offer just because a potential buyer said something. They may respond by just saying they'll sell to someone else ...
@@danielr.larson1625 ah true. My bad because I meant in the incentives. The buy downs and closing costs they offer. This would be a good topic to cover of its self!
It would be interesting to see a comparison between existing home purchase vs. builder rate buy down/incentives. Which of the two would be better? It is interesting because it seems the quality of newer homes compared to older homes seems an apples-to-oranges argument, the price per square foot is vastly higher (in most cases) for new.
There's a channel here where the guy says he just bought a new home. The price of the home was more than what an existing home would cost but - with the builder buy-down of the mortgage rate - the monthly payment is actually *lower* on the new home! (I don't know what the numbers were on that buy-down but I think he's talked about buy-downs being like going from 7% to 4.99%.)
Asset price will need to come down. Unless employers plan to increase salaries by 20%. Home prices will eventually and slowly drop at least 15%. This should happen around elections time. Mostly after elections over.
@@AdityaSharma-oz5qy exactly. One of two things have to happen. Either wages go up substantially or asset prices come down to reality. We all know no one is going to get a ~20% increase in pay in one year. It’s a slowly but surely thing on the asset price decrease. A few percent here and there each year. Hell, prices can’t even get back to their peak. That alone creates a small equity window lol.
Are you aware of the concept of lower lows, lower highs? Of course there will be seasonal appreciation, we just saw a fair bit of it, but guess what, in pretty much every place west of the Mississippi, the 2023 high was considerably lower than the 2022 high, despite a ridiculous lack of units for sale. When decent inventory levels do arrive, we'll see even lower peaks. We'll probably stabilize at the "right" level around 26 or 27, barring a massive spike in wages.
@@CaptainCaveman1170 Are you aware of the concept that lower lows or lower highs does not equate to there being a crash? Are you capable of reading for content?
Jason, you show data. However, what you DON’T talk about is why. Why aren’t there as many homes for sale? Who is buying these homes? Why are these entities not selling? Let’s discuss the truth behind the RE market…otherwise it’s all smoke and mirrors.
He may be a "crash bro", but Travis from Real estate mindset goes into great detail about all the "whys". If you get your nerdy data from Jason and (admittedly biased) analysis from Travis, that's a pretty complete picture in my view.
Need progressively higher property taxes on the concurrent ownership of 4th or more properties, higher by 40%, only then these properties will come to the market. AirBnB, corporate and foreign investors should pay 60% higher taxes on residential properties. Excluding rental multi family properties.
This does occur in many markets since only the owners' primary residence is eligible for tax credits or other special handling via programs like homestead exemptions, etc.
One of the easiest way to build wealth is thru Real Estate, when you rent you are paying other people mortgage, what ever little equity belongs to them not you!!
Would you rather buy yourself some real estate, or buy some real estate for someone else? The USA has 30 year fixed rate mortgages. Buying a house is a huge wealth builder, over the long term, compared to renting.
I agree, renting has been great for us. We've been able to put our down payment cash to work making money for us. Landlord may be cash flowing $1k/month on our rental, but I've made two years worth of rent off our invested cash. 👌 Having the cash available also gave us the opportunity to buy an investment property for 25 cents on the dollar which we will now gut and renovate Plus it's so nice that I can bug my landlord to come fix anything that goes wrong, feels like free labor, especially considering how homes are depreciating so quickly in my area. Would I want to pay 7% on an inflated, depreciating asset? Or a guaranteed 5% minimum return on our cash? 🤔
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again real estate is supply and demand. A majority of homeowners have less than 4% fixed rates are more likely to stay and very comfortable making mortgage payment. Extremely low inventory = no crash
I need to move for work, yet I have a 2% mortgage rate. So, what am I going to do instead? The only reasonable solution here is to rent out my house, I’m never selling it.
Exactly!!! I bought my 1st house in San Diego with 2.75 fixed rate in 09 during crash. I moved out in 2012 because I’m in active duty and need to transfer every 3 years. I’m glad I kept it as rental, making 1800 monthly rental cash flow and I have less than 2 years away to pay it off.
But what happens when those people lose their jobs and can't make the payments? That too will eventually happen, you don't have To be Nostradamus to say yes there will be another crash. Money lending getting tight, the banks know the average Joe is way overextended IE $1,000 car payments and $4500 mortgage +++insurance ,food ,gas, entertainment , emergencies. Good luck kids.
@@brucebruhn8837easy loan modification to 40 years or loan forbearance. As a landlord I’m picky on selecting tenants. My renter is a nurse and we all know they’re not losing their job. Healthcare is in demand in other words job stability, I check if there’s any history of eviction, credit score and 1 month deposit
Median sale price is down 13% from peak. Why would they list their house for the same price as last year? 😂 These people are about to get a serious wake up call.
The problem with new construction, at least here in the IE in So Cal is nearly all of them have HOA + mello-roos. It wipes out the lower interest rate benefit.
Buggy back: Yeah, here’s the thing. Even if prices come down to 300k range for a 3000sf home, all the people who purchased the last 2 1/2 years would quickly be underwater. They weren’t going anywhere before because of their 3% or near rate, but now they literally can’t go. Even if it’s underwater for the next decade they’ll stay in it, rent it or pass it on to family because they’ll never get that rate and payment again. Builders won’t overbuild again like 2006, and the jobs maker looks to be strong. I’m still not seeing the path to higher inventory.
Builders always overbuild, and if for some reason they choose to stop building when profits shrink (due to competition) then they will literally cause a recession with the number of people they'll leave unemployed. You analysis is too shallow and fails to consider all the knock-on consequences of the things you suggest. Even a flippant statement like "people will just rent it out" has negative consequences for house prices in general because when everyone has the same idea they'll oversaturate the rental market and ruin the (slim) cashflow calculations for the adjacent investors, causing them to break even or worse each month and leading them to sell. There's no way to (permanently) avoid a return to affordability, one way or another it returns, because by definition the average product must be affordable to the average person or there is no market and big problems arise.
That’s some very wishful speculation 😂 Anyone that bought 2017-present will be underwater for 20+ years and since affordability was sky high both before and after rates went up they won’t be renting those houses dude 😂
The economy is going to tumble eventually, jobs will be lost because of it, and homes will go on firesale as inventory surges when people try to offload overly leveraged positions in housing before they default. Be patient.
Over-leveraged conditions always self-correct. We just don't know exactly how when the government has an infinite money printer and more than willing to "get involved".
@@jayk3551 7% is not high at all, historically speaking. We're still priming the pump, just less than before. The only reason inflation looks as good as it does is that they changed the 'basket' several months ago to make it appear lower.
Compilation of Housing Market Forecast videos
th-cam.com/play/PLiQQpOejscIcBF1Jw2zG6Uvg7qDav_oGi.html
Jason that was so good bro. Loved the handle bar stache for sure!
I think we're going to see the effects of people hanging on to cheap houses with cheap interest rates for a few years.
In my area…houses are starting to stay on the market much longer, prices being cut quickly/significantly and contracts are falling through….imo..tides are shifting.
A townhome in my area just sold for 10k over asking. Another one sold for 15k over asking the same day. I’m in the northeast. They didn’t stay on the market for a week.
@@Jack-pd4pshere in jersey it’s pretty crazy too
@@Jack-pd4ps in Connecticut is awful. There are more houses for sale but still short for demand. I was looking at recently sold houses and everything is selling for 60-100k over asking which is insane to me, even saw one that selling price was 500k and when for 705k. how are people affording that and bank approving loans on overvalued houses? I have been on the market to buy for three years now and I am feeling that I am price out at this point.
@@Jack-pd4psdepends on location. Inventory low in Chicago suburb but houses sitting longer and only idiots overbidding
@Jack-pd4ps in highly populated maybe but I have seen prices drop as much as 20%
Jason, here is a data point that I'd like to see that I find very interesting. How many of the houses currently listed are houses that were bought within the past 3-4 years. Noticing a trend in my area and just wondering percentages throughout the state. Don't know if this is possible to breakdown, but again it's very interesting. Thanks for your work
If/when inventory should increase, prices will drop rapidly. 25% of homes in my zip have price reductions, despite inventory remaining flat. Consumer debt soaring, student loan payment restarting soon, credit tightening, and nearly 25% of applications for homes and vehicles are denied. Talk to your neighbors, most of mine are curbing spending habits now, myself included.
I rechecked my Bills because of Blogs. Cut monthly house bills $300 then 1/1 SS gave me $200 cash COLA. SO $800 before taxes First step no need to cut back Spend More.. 😁😁
Which zip is that?
I don’t see student loan repayment making much of a difference at all.
@@LR-pw9dd how do you figure?
The handle bar was the best look in my opinion. Style 💯
I knew it! Clean shaven today! Lol love it
Hey there Travis, and you leave your facial hair alone! I can only take so much change in my old life.😂🤣😂
Yes, I'd like a video about new home builders. I've been looking in northern NV, northern CA and southern OR. Although builders are offering some incentives, most of their prices start at about $500,000 minimum and I'm only seeing a few reductions on that.
If you get a builder buy-down your *monthly payment* could actually be *lower than* buying a cheaper existing home at 7%.
Thank you for the information. Nice work!
My pleasure!
It never ceases to amaze me that the majority of comments come from recent home buyers. 😂Why ?
They wanted it to be the best time in history to buy a house but it actually ended up being quite the opposite.
Lots of people are delusional and think their house is worth more than it was a year ago 😂
In escrow with new build and exactly what Jason said is what we are looking at. Lennar offered $20,000 ( including rate buy down) in incentives on a new build, it’s actually the model home with beautiful upgrades, appliances, landscaping with premium lot. Have bought with Lennar before and had a good experience with their process. Due to close escrow in September 🤞
Nice! Congrats! Those model houses can have hundreds of thousands of dollars of upgrades. Plus, landscaping is very expensive so congrats.
Hello, could someone tell me, is the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index reliable information source and how it is measured? As a foreigner it looks strange that U.S. housing markets seem to be immune to interest rate changes.
Well played lol - the handlebars were the most fun
This housing market is so crazy 😜 It made Jason facial hair fall out!😂 Happy Sunday Jason!
Right?! Haha!
😂
tomorrow he’s got different glasses or no hair? 😂
@@letsworksimple if he goes bald I am outta here!😂🤣😂
I would like to see more about the benefits of buying news and the stats you quoted near the end of the video!
It's astounding how clear it is what is happening - nobody is listing their homes and thus sales are way down but prices are steady or even up a bit. Last year's prices were a small bubble that never burst, they've just corrected with time by staying roughly even. Something big must happen to alter this new equilibrium - job losses or an impressive interest rate change would do the trick. But good luck waiting for those things to happen. I continue to think there won't be a big buying op for several years.
People losing their jobs isn’t a good thing, just because it opens up an opportunity for you to profit. Smh This country deserves the disaster that’s coming.
Historically, we have seen that when the stock market falls, job loses accelerate. Right now, foreclosure filings are up over 60% year over year. Home values will fall dramatically, as this phenomenon persists. Votes have consequences...
You look GREAT Jason, with or without your beard! I thought it was kind of funny watching your daily shaving habits unfold. I think you need a crystal ball to predict this market but all the data points you bring to the table help!
Good morning
Looking good by the way and hope to see a Handle bar mustache in the near future.
The handlebar was my favorite too thought that was hilarious when I first saw it!
Id like to know the average cost of these new buildings. And percent of the entire market that makes up.
Was wondering same! I kept going back to the videos and wondering what's up with the 'tash and tee. Funny 😂
It makes sense that people would move to new homes. They come with warranties and depending upon the state of construction, you get to pick out colors, flooring, appliance packages, etc.
In general, I suspect that many of the people buying have substantial liquid assets or credit availability. We have a new small development by us of 10 or so homes and one buyer backed out. The listing went to online and was snapped up in a day.
It would be great to see if the price range of homes selling has moved upward, which could imply that the buyers have larger asset availability.
A seperate video on negotiating with new builder constructions would be helpful!
There's not much negotiation with new. It's pretty much like going to a store .. take it or leave it .. kind of thing... They may offer incentives, but I've never heard of a builder changing their offer just because a potential buyer said something. They may respond by just saying they'll sell to someone else ...
@@danielr.larson1625 ah true. My bad because I meant in the incentives. The buy downs and closing costs they offer. This would be a good topic to cover of its self!
Haha Jason, I thought you lost a bet, thank you!
It’s better without the beard.👍👍
What an improvement.
It would be interesting to see a comparison between existing home purchase vs. builder rate buy down/incentives. Which of the two would be better? It is interesting because it seems the quality of newer homes compared to older homes seems an apples-to-oranges argument, the price per square foot is vastly higher (in most cases) for new.
There's a channel here where the guy says he just bought a new home. The price of the home was more than what an existing home would cost but - with the builder buy-down of the mortgage rate - the monthly payment is actually *lower* on the new home! (I don't know what the numbers were on that buy-down but I think he's talked about buy-downs being like going from 7% to 4.99%.)
@@Best_Served_Neat_On_Ice Wow! 🤔
Thanks Jason!
Housing prices will dip this winter and everyone will say “here comes the crash” only for prices to climb again in the spring. Repeat, repeat, repeat.
This cycle is true, but year over year there will only be a slight decline may be 5%
Asset price will need to come down. Unless employers plan to increase salaries by 20%. Home prices will eventually and slowly drop at least 15%. This should happen around elections time. Mostly after elections over.
@@AdityaSharma-oz5qy exactly. One of two things have to happen. Either wages go up substantially or asset prices come down to reality.
We all know no one is going to get a ~20% increase in pay in one year.
It’s a slowly but surely thing on the asset price decrease. A few percent here and there each year. Hell, prices can’t even get back to their peak. That alone creates a small equity window lol.
Are you aware of the concept of lower lows, lower highs? Of course there will be seasonal appreciation, we just saw a fair bit of it, but guess what, in pretty much every place west of the Mississippi, the 2023 high was considerably lower than the 2022 high, despite a ridiculous lack of units for sale. When decent inventory levels do arrive, we'll see even lower peaks. We'll probably stabilize at the "right" level around 26 or 27, barring a massive spike in wages.
@@CaptainCaveman1170 Are you aware of the concept that lower lows or lower highs does not equate to there being a crash? Are you capable of reading for content?
Happy Clean Shaven Jason Sunday! 😊
Happy Sunday!
I watch daily and can’t believe I didn’t notice
These numbers reflect Fed rates and attitudes from 2 months ago.
And the crash thats supposed to happen never came...once rates hit 3-4% a wave of buyer comes back in. No one with a sub 3% is selling.
Jason, you show data. However, what you DON’T talk about is why.
Why aren’t there as many homes for sale?
Who is buying these homes?
Why are these entities not selling?
Let’s discuss the truth behind the RE market…otherwise it’s all smoke and mirrors.
He may be a "crash bro", but Travis from Real estate mindset goes into great detail about all the "whys". If you get your nerdy data from Jason and (admittedly biased) analysis from Travis, that's a pretty complete picture in my view.
Need progressively higher property taxes on the concurrent ownership of 4th or more properties, higher by 40%, only then these properties will come to the market.
AirBnB, corporate and foreign investors should pay 60% higher taxes on residential properties. Excluding rental multi family properties.
This does occur in many markets since only the owners' primary residence is eligible for tax credits or other special handling via programs like homestead exemptions, etc.
I say, no investors period; especially those out of country investors.
No they won’t, they’d just increase rents which are already crazy.
@@MCLAbossii They can't pass a 30-40% increase in taxes to renters. Hence will have to sell off the property.
@@JBoy340a ok, now they need to see an increase in property taxes in the range of 30-40% on 4th or more concurrently held residential property.
Very funny this week.
Glad you enjoyed it
Why do Americans think most ppl should own houses ? Renting is not that bad.
One of the easiest way to build wealth is thru Real Estate, when you rent you are paying other people mortgage, what ever little equity belongs to them not you!!
@@ruthrecalde2858 good things are not cheap. Why would ppl expect housing to be affordable then?
Yep 👍 I need renters to pay my mortgage 😂
Would you rather buy yourself some real estate, or buy some real estate for someone else?
The USA has 30 year fixed rate mortgages. Buying a house is a huge wealth builder, over the long term, compared to renting.
I agree, renting has been great for us.
We've been able to put our down payment cash to work making money for us. Landlord may be cash flowing $1k/month on our rental, but I've made two years worth of rent off our invested cash. 👌
Having the cash available also gave us the opportunity to buy an investment property for 25 cents on the dollar which we will now gut and renovate
Plus it's so nice that I can bug my landlord to come fix anything that goes wrong, feels like free labor, especially considering how homes are depreciating so quickly in my area.
Would I want to pay 7% on an inflated, depreciating asset? Or a guaranteed 5% minimum return on our cash? 🤔
You look the best with a full beard and mustache
NOW you tell him.
#Unaffordability….the median & average home price need to go back to $150k-$200K not $359K-$$500K!!!!!
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again real estate is supply and demand. A majority of homeowners have less than 4% fixed rates are more likely to stay and very comfortable making mortgage payment. Extremely low inventory = no crash
I need to move for work, yet I have a 2% mortgage rate. So, what am I going to do instead? The only reasonable solution here is to rent out my house, I’m never selling it.
Exactly!!! I bought my 1st house in San Diego with 2.75 fixed rate in 09 during crash. I moved out in 2012 because I’m in active duty and need to transfer every 3 years. I’m glad I kept it as rental, making 1800 monthly rental cash flow and I have less than 2 years away to pay it off.
But what happens when those people lose their jobs and can't make the payments? That too will eventually happen, you don't have To be Nostradamus to say yes there will be another crash. Money lending getting tight, the banks know the average Joe is way overextended IE $1,000 car payments and $4500 mortgage +++insurance ,food ,gas, entertainment , emergencies. Good luck kids.
@@brucebruhn8837rent out your house, sell everything else in America, move to Thailand. Your money will last you 10 times longer. Win win
@@brucebruhn8837easy loan modification to 40 years or loan forbearance. As a landlord I’m picky on selecting tenants. My renter is a nurse and we all know they’re not losing their job. Healthcare is in demand in other words job stability, I check if there’s any history of eviction, credit score and 1 month deposit
Median sale price is down 13% from peak. Why would they list their house for the same price as last year? 😂
These people are about to get a serious wake up call.
🤥
The problem with new construction, at least here in the IE in So Cal is nearly all of them have HOA + mello-roos. It wipes out the lower interest rate benefit.
GM ...Looks Good now gain 10 lbs..ALOHA😁😁😁😁
Jason looks like a kid fresh outta college now!🤣😂🤣
@@Steverz32 Maybe a little Sun ? Boy we are Pricks HaHa
U know maybe a little to much space between the lip and Nose ..😁😁
Buggy back: Yeah, here’s the thing. Even if prices come down to 300k range for a 3000sf home, all the people who purchased the last 2 1/2 years would quickly be underwater. They weren’t going anywhere before because of their 3% or near rate, but now they literally can’t go. Even if it’s underwater for the next decade they’ll stay in it, rent it or pass it on to family because they’ll never get that rate and payment again. Builders won’t overbuild again like 2006, and the jobs maker looks to be strong. I’m still not seeing the path to higher inventory.
Builders always overbuild, and if for some reason they choose to stop building when profits shrink (due to competition) then they will literally cause a recession with the number of people they'll leave unemployed. You analysis is too shallow and fails to consider all the knock-on consequences of the things you suggest. Even a flippant statement like "people will just rent it out" has negative consequences for house prices in general because when everyone has the same idea they'll oversaturate the rental market and ruin the (slim) cashflow calculations for the adjacent investors, causing them to break even or worse each month and leading them to sell. There's no way to (permanently) avoid a return to affordability, one way or another it returns, because by definition the average product must be affordable to the average person or there is no market and big problems arise.
@@CaptainCaveman1170 Yes, “One way or another” is the best metric for housing just like the “good luck” I had to have retiring at 50. 👍
That’s some very wishful speculation 😂 Anyone that bought 2017-present will be underwater for 20+ years and since affordability was sky high both before and after rates went up they won’t be renting those houses dude 😂
I was looking for a prudent and detailed explanation of how falling home prices would increase inventory, but I concede and digress.
@@patmagic3301Unemployment. Can't pay mortgage. Can't collect rent. Forced to sell. That's it.
1😂
Good morning Steve!
The economy is going to tumble eventually, jobs will be lost because of it, and homes will go on firesale as inventory surges when people try to offload overly leveraged positions in housing before they default. Be patient.
Over-leveraged conditions always self-correct. We just don't know exactly how when the government has an infinite money printer and more than willing to "get involved".
@@jayk3551 7% is not high at all, historically speaking. We're still priming the pump, just less than before. The only reason inflation looks as good as it does is that they changed the 'basket' several months ago to make it appear lower.