8% Rates Or More? Have Treasury Yields Peaked Or Will They Go Higher?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 31 พ.ค. 2024
- Are 8% rates coming? How high could Treasury yields go? Plus, the recent jump in bond yields & the upcoming Treasury auctions this week. That’s what we’re talking about in our latest TH-cam video members & supersavers!
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Here is the overview for Bond Beginners:
1. Bond Basics
What A Bond Is & How A Bond Works
Why Invest In Bonds
New Issue vs Secondary Market Bonds
Interest Rates & Bond Prices
Current Yield & Yield To Maturity
Always Remember This!
Buying At Par, Above Par & Below Par
Different Types Of Bonds
Wrap-Up
2. The Risks Of Bond Investing
Seven Key Bond Risks
Credit Risk
Interest Rate Risk
Reinvestment Risk/Call Risk
Inflation Risk
Liquidity Risk
Currency Risk & Country Risk
Bond Risk Mitigation Strategies
Wrap-Up
3. US Treasuries Overview
What Are US Treasuries
Why Invest In Treasuries
Where Can You Buy Treasuries
How Are Treasuries Taxed
Wrap-Up
4. Treasury Bills
What Are Treasury Bills (T-Bills)
When Do T-Bill Auctions Happen
Where Should You Buy At Auction
Auto-Roll When Buying At Auction
Where To Find Recent Auction Results
High Rate vs Investment Rate
Reopening Auctions
Cash Management Bills (CMBs)
Buying & Selling On Secondary Market
Wrap-Up
5. Treasury Notes & Bonds
What Are Treasury Notes & Bonds
When Do Auctions Happen
Buying Treasury Notes & Bonds
Auction High Yield vs Interest Rate
Floating Rate Notes (FRNs)
Treasury Zeros (STRIPS)
Wrap-Up
6. TIPS (Inflation-Protected)
What Are TIPS
When Do TIPS Auctions Happen
Nominal vs Real Yields
Negative Yields
How Do You Adjust TIPS For Inflation
Taxes On Phantom Income
Secondary Market Liquidity
Wrap-Up
7. I-Bonds (Inflation-Protected)
What Are I-Bonds
How Does I-Bond Interest Work
I-Bonds vs TIPS
The Annual I-Bond Limit
Wrap-Up
8. Agency Bonds
The Universe Of Bonds
What Are Agency Bonds
How Are Agency Bonds Taxed
Treasuries vs Agencies
Who Might Want To Consider Agencies
Yield-To-Call & Yield-To-Worst
Where Can You Buy Agency Bonds
Wrap-Up
9. Municipal Bonds
Our Bond Universe Gets More Complex
What Are Municipal Bonds
How Safe Are Munis
How Are Munis Taxed
The De Minimis Rule
Social Security & Medicare Premiums
Treasuries, Agencies & Munis
Who Might Want To Consider Munis
Wrap-Up
10. Corporate Bonds
Our Bond Universe Is Complete
What Are Corporate Bonds
How Safe Are Corporates
Corporate Bond Hierarchies
Five Key Features Of Corporate Bonds
How Are Corporates Taxed
Treasuries vs Corporates, Etc.
Who Might Want To Buy Corporates
Wrap-Up
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Here is the overview for Bond Masters:
1. Stocks vs Bonds
Historical Performance
Are Bonds Really Less Volatile
Why Invest In Bonds
Accumulation vs Decumulation
Allocation of Stocks vs Bonds
Wrap-Up
2. Which Bonds Might Be Right For You
Treasuries & Other Types of Bonds
Nominal vs Real Yields
Inflation vs Non-Inflation-Protected
Taxable vs Tax-Advantaged Accounts
Wrap-Up
3. Bond Ladders & Other Bond Strategies
Normal vs Inverted Yield Curve
What Is A Bond Ladder
5 Important Bond Laddering Questions
Laddering When Rates Are Rising
Laddering When Rates Are Falling
Laddering When Rates Are Uncertain
What Is A Bullet
What Is A Barbell
Wrap-Up
4. Holding to Maturity vs Selling Early
Why Hold to Maturity
When To Sell Early Before Maturity
Tax Implications Of Selling Early
Wrap-Up
5. Individual Bonds, Bond Funds, Etc.
Why Buy Individual Bonds
Why Buy Bond Funds
Bond Fund Considerations
Key Bond Fund Concepts
CDs vs Treasuries
Other High-Yield Investments
Wrap-Up
6. Our B.E.S.T. Model Portfolios By Age
Our B.E.S.T Model Portfolios By Age
Model Portfolios In The Industry
B.E.S.T Model Portfolio Difference
How Much Do You Need To Retire?
How I Use The Rules of 100, 110, & 120
B.E.S.T Model Portfolios (20s)
B.E.S.T Model Portfolios (30s & 40s)
B.E.S.T Model Portfolios (50s & 60s)
B.E.S.T Model Portfolios (70s+)
Wrap-Up
7. The Decumulation Phase
What Is The Decumulation Phase?
Bear Markets & Recessions
What Can You Do In Bad/Bear Markets
Decumulation Tax Considerations
The 4% Rule
The Bucket Strategy
The Flooring Approach
Jen’s Bucket Strategy With A Twist
Wrap-Up
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SOURCES:
reports.jpmorganchase.com/investor-relations/2023/ar-ceo-letters.htm
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-16/powell-signals-high-rates-for-longer-due-to-persistent-inflation
www.fidelity.com/
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Thanks for visiting our personal finance channel! We hope this content will help fast-track your financial journey! Everyone's financial journey is different. Please note that: 1) there are questions/ comments which I will not be able to answer without fully understanding your financial, personal & other circumstances & 2) we will not ask you to call us or send us money in the comments on this channel or any of our other social media accounts, so if you see comment(s) along those lines, it is most likely spam - PLEASE DO NOT ENGAGE WITH SPAMMERS OR GIVE OUT YOUR PERSONAL INFORMATION FOR YOUR OWN SAFETY.
How do I acces the classes
How do I take the class..
@@DonRowen-hz4ot Here is the link if you want to purchase both Bond Beginners & Bond Masters together & save $100: www.diamondnestegg.com/home#_paa2isucf You can also find information at that link, if you want to purchase just one course. Don't forget to enter your 15% coupon code at checkout: bondfans2024
The coupon code is valid thru 11:59PM ET on 4/30/2024. Also, Jennifer will be running the first live online course session for Bond Beginners on Tuesday, April 30th so hopefully, you will be able to attend! Best - Eva
Nobody on YT explains these investment considerations better than you, Jennifer. Thank you so much for what you do!
One of the things I like about your videos Jennifer, is that you just share your knowledge, and what's available in the market to your followers. No clickbait and no taking down other TH-camrs. Keep up the great work and thank you.
My husband and I are 72 years old. Your videos have been very helpful and we appreciate your work as we rebalance our portfolio to more conservative investments. ❤
We're not going to see 8% in this cycle. Dimon was just talking about the worst case. Rates should probably be at 8% for a while to kill this inflation, but it seems unlikely to happen.
I am buying the 2 year treasury note. The 1 year treasury bill yield of about 5.16% is signaling that no federal reserve rate cut is probable before the December meeting. The range of the 1 month to 6 month bills has moved over the midpoint of the current 5.25% to 5.5% FF range which signals no rate cut within the next 6 months. Future forecasts are subject to change. The main driver up or down will be whether the month-to-month inflation numbers continue at the percentage increases over the past 3 months (.4%) or return to a .1% to .2% trend.
Love your work! Always learn something and appreciate the treasury market updates. Keep it up!
I'm still confused, for the longest time, on how treasury yields actually calculate out once I buy them (zero coupon T-bills). Would be nice to see a video on how to do the math to verify that the posted or estimated YTW or "Effective Yield" is true. I use a spreadsheet to quickly verify and never get the same % as the order page. It's off by only trivial amounts but still a bit unsettling. So it seems I can never get the publicized rate, whether new issue or secondary market.
I really liked this video. I would love to see others like this on Mondays. Thanks!
Nice video Jennifer, especially appreciate the comparison at timestamp 6:08 and summary at 8:53 and what to look forward to this week.
Also, Jamie Dimon, watch what he does, not what he says. On one hand predicts 8% rates yet his 1-year ~ 5%+ CDs are callable. He's conservative for sure. IMHO, the message I see is that he's really not so sure rates will spike to 8%. else make the CDs not callable. Surely, he's hedging his commentary.
Thank you for excellent videos!
Staying with 4 week t-bills but thinking about when to start going longer.
Me too. I may ease into longer term, but haven’t yet.
Same here!
Or check out SGOV Etf, it follows the t bills rate
same here but on 8 wk to 6 months. My gut feel is no rate cuts this year at the rate how inflation is persistent.
Today I got the 3 month T-BILL, tomorrow the 2 year NOTE, last week the 5 year TIPS.
Thanks for the update. We're still expecting the long end to continue to rise to revert the yield curve, rather than the short end rates drop. Money has been ridiculously too cheap for 20+ years, causing a string of crises.
8%? Bring it! To the Moon, Alice🚀🌜
I recall when the Fed rate was in the teens. My first mortgage was 13%. (J. Carter Administration)
I am moving some 26 & 17 week bills into the 2 year notes. Still mostly in short bills but diversifying into some 2 year treasuries. Thanks for your input.
I enjoy your videos but I occasionally see data in them that seems incorrect. The Treasury Rate Comparison Chart (beginning of year versus now), for example, shows the 2 month T-Bill for the week of 4/19 as 5.51 but the investment rates from auction that week was 5.396.
New "super saver" here. Really enjoying your articulate and informative content. Recently purchased my first t-bill at auction and am learning a lot.
All I see getting built down here in NC are massive rental apartment developments.I don’t think rates will ever come back down enough for people to afford to buy homes again.Between Mortgage rates,home insurance and car insurance , renting may be the only option for the future.Imagine what this will do to banks.Everyone will be buying tbills
Blackrock and other large companies are buying up most of the available homes. That way they can rent it to you for 2x their mortgage rate. They win, you lose.
The prolonged almost zero interest rates was never normal
@@peterfrank1572 Those intentially zero rates explain a big part of inflation today.
I will probably buy a layer of the 2 year Treasury, but may depend on direction of trend today that shows on Fidelity
@volvobeliever2427 I agree, my son just bought a 220,000, 3/2 bath home. Buy what you can afford.
Thank you 💐
I am sticking with the "dollar cost averaging" strategy and taking a portion from maturing Bills and converting that to 7Y Notes.
Sounds like a plan!
I am considering buying T-bills in layers
…and yes Jennifer, great videos !
Hi, just to inform u my 7% agency bond was recalled tdy. Bought in oct 2023. So really I got 3.5% coupon and fully called. I had only 10
I'm buying the 2 year Note this week.
Thank you very much...
I have multiple GSEs at 5.5% or higher(callable in 3-5 years) and some money markets at 5.4%, 5 year CDs at 5.25% and brokered CDs at 5% or higher… just being scatter brain and hoping to get an average of 5% plus for next 5 years on 1/4 of my net worth.
I am all over the place too at fidelity. All you have plus corporate bonds and ibonds. If I pass does anyone know how my beneficiaries/executor will handle this? Will a death certificate need to be send to each entity by executor or will fidelity handle for me. Someone on 403bwise said one death certificate needs to be send to each brokered CD. That should like a lot of work. I wonder if Jennifer has covered this in any of her videos. Does anyone know?
@@bobbenavides My fidelity accounts are JTWROS or 401k with beneficiary listed and I guess that’s enough to pass on rights of survivorship with each of these investments. Hope I am right and my survivors don’t have to deal with each Bank(brokered CDs) etc individually.
I nabbed a 2 year NOTE that wound up at 5% and I'm so happy....it was a nailbiter!
The 2 yr came in a little lower than expected , 4-7/8%. I'll keep my 4 wk T bill ladder (manually) rolling over every week in Treasury Direct where I can add in $100 increments whenever I can, last week's rate was 5.28%. I'll just watch and wait - The next 52 wk auction is Tuesday, May 14 and the next 2 year is Tuesday, May 28.
Yields are swinging wildly at the moment!
Buying 4-week Treasuries and planning to continue to DCA into 20-year as rates rise.
Thanks for sharing Petra!
The trend is your friend. Jamie's talking JP's position.
What's your Take on Defined Maturity Income Stream and iShares iBonds Term TIPS ETF 0.10 Basis : Ticker iBTE and others similar for Retirees with RMD?Please Enlighten us with a Video for How to Buy/Sell and Do's and Don't. Thanks. Learning and thanks from your Videos . Retiree and not a bond trader.
I'll buy some 10-year treasury bond is the yield is 5% or more. Currently only rollover to 6-month or less bills when the yield is more than 5.3%. Right now, 6-month is finally above 5.3% in the recent weeks and I rollover the expired ones to them. Otherwise, stay with 3-month ones.
The world economy will die if it costs 8% to service debt. This is good for rich people and will destroy poor people.
And they’ll discover how much they actually need each other after all.
The world economy is dying now, it's just a matter of time
But why not just park money in a 5% interest savings account these days instead of “locking” your money away for a year or 2??
This always confused me. 😭
Once fed starts cutting interest rates, then banks will cut interest rates on hysa too. Locking interest rates on Treasury bills and bonds gets fixed interest rates for the next 1,2, or 10 years even when the rates are low
my crystal ball says rates will go to 7%. I am sticking with 6 month and 2 year FRNs...
It is worrysome though. Nice we get higher interest earning from the Treasury bills, but when the inflation keeps trending up our dollars worth less day by day because the national debt problem isnt solved.
Buying some 2 year treasuries.
Some of the bound funds pay the dividends based on the time you holding the fund, it automatically reinvested
Staying with very short durations for the time being.
Why do you congratulate those who got a 5% on a 20 year bond? My HYSA is getting 4.5% and it’s 100% liquid.?? I m new to this but am I missing something?
Hi Jennifer, What does the US Treasury buyback program mean for us?
Hi - I've forwarded this for Jennifer to look into. Best - Eva
please talk about UOBAM Invest Cash+ Xtra etc tks
13 week!
8% WOULD BE FANTASTIC! Let's go 8!🤑
Hi Jenn,
Great video and perspective. Even though most our bond holdings are still in short-term (2y or less) issues, I have been slowly scaling into 20y & 30y new-issue treasuries every month (at auction). My gut feeling is that we probably won't see another rate hike by the Fed this cycle, but rate cuts will be slower in coming than the market has priced in. For that reason I think that longer term rates will continue to slowly climb. I'm hedging my own guess by slowly building a longer term position, because just like equities, we'll never be able to know where the top is until we see it in the rear view mirror. On the decreasing rate side; the fixed-rate longer term bonds are much more rate-sensitive, so when and if rates begin to decline, they will increase in value faster than short term issues. The bottom line is; it's really unknowable where rates will be one year or 5 years from today, but holding some long term Uncle Sam debt at 4.8% is still a good and safe bet.
Hi Jennifer, I got a $10K, 2-year T-bill new issue this week, my first note purchase, at 4.898% high yield, 4.875% interest (coupon rate), maturity on 4/30/26. Can you please confirm for me, the exact amounts of payments that will happen?
Coupon payments = 10/31/24 amount? 4/30/25 amount? 10/31/25 amount? Note at maturity 4/30/26 amount?
Your help would be much appreciated, thank you!
Hi Clarice - I don't have the exact numbers in front of me, but here's how it works in principle. Assume you paid $950 for $1000 par value of the 2-Year Note. Your coupon payment every six months would be equal to (4.875% x $1,000)/2. And at maturity, you would get your last coupon payment plus the return of principal (the $1,000 of par value).
@@DiamondNestEgg Perfect Jennifer, thank you, much appreciated!!
TIme to stretch out the ladder as the rates stay above 5%
He gave a rate range of 2% to 8%. That's pretty much telling us nothing. But I realize predictions are hard to make, especially when they involve the future.
Beware of consensus opinions on rate projections.
Could this mean an increased fixed rate of upcoming Ibonds?
Any guess on how low EDV will go? LOL Another great video!
I am interested in buying Treasury Bills. Please who wants to teach me on how to go about it?
I am staying short term until the long term rates go above the short term, I hope it gets to 8%
I'm ignorant. What am I missing? Why not buy 4 week or 16 week T-bills? I see you saying a 4.?? rate is good for long term but the short terms outpace that. I'm just a outsider but don't understand buying long term bonds. Thank you
Google: "reinvestment risk".
This is one of many risks to balance.
Read: _Bond Investing for Dummies_ which walks you through most of them
Should I buy T-bills if I am in my late 20s?
You should look into sample asset allocation models by age. Generally younger investors can take more risk (e.g. in the stock market) since they have time to ride out the ups and downs. Often the stock side of a portfolio is balanced by a bond side, both in the form of mutual funds/ETFs which have multiple holdings. At your age I would think individual Treasuries (short-term ones) would be more useful if you just wanted to 'park' some cash somewhere for awhile.
@@willk7184 That's helpful feedback, thank you! I am holding a decent amount of short-term treasuries, but like you mentioned I am wondering if I should forgo that approach and just aggressively push to be in the market owning stocks/ETFs.
Jamie's prediction record over last few years has been more wrong than right, e.g. recession. Still, a CEO rarely gets in trouble for being too conservative, cautious, etc.
The issue many of us are worried about is, a total or near total collapse of the US Financial System. I have, thanks to you, all my CDs and I-Bonds maturing before September. Then I plan to sit it out for the next 6 months to see what happens until summer 2025. Also, Considering using foreign banks. ps: My metals are doing GREAT!
I plan on buying some T bills. Most likely 3 month term. And Jen you were right. You said several months ago that yields would probably remain pretty good as government spending was still heavy. And that’s what’s happening. 👍
Gas & energy going up... inflation not going to 2% or down anytime soon, fed should have upped rates instead of sitting on their arses.
It’s pretty much always over 2% on average. 2.5 vs 2.0 makes a big difference over decades.
❤
Feds need to raise them or stagflation becomes the new normal . 8 to 10% need for sometime. Or bread become 20 dollars a loaf
Just tried to buy T-bills on Fidelity. Nothing for 3 month or 6 month that *doesn't have a minimum of 50k????* Or is that just secondary market buys?
If so, it looks like us individual investors are getting squeezed out of one of the last safe havens left in the market by big corporate buyers.
Nothing shocking there if that is the case. It seems in their best interest if we are all broke *ss broke.
Wow.
Powel is applying techniques that worked 40 years ago. He has no clue what he's doing in todays environment. Listen to Meredith Whitney's prophetic advice instead.
The Treasury is announcing a buyback program for bonds... To preserve the liquidity of bonds, why would we buy back 2% debt to reissue 5% debt to pay for it?
Dimon talks too much. He may be a good ceo but
The higher the rate goes, the more problems our trading partners have in importing oil, which is priced in dollars. The crux of the problem is that federal spending is out of control. Now we're spending $95 billion more on Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. The Ukraine war is lost, the Israelies are behaving badly, and China is really not interested in invading and taking Taiwan. Our priorities are all mixed up.
I was with you until you said this: "the Israelis are behaving badly".
@@Hazel66781 I was euphemistic in the extreme, avoiding the G word.
Doesn’t matter to me 😂 I’m already earning 8% by trading Treasury Bonds this year
Hhow
So when the government defaults on the debt, I’d hate to be the bag holder
10% 10% 10%