Pivoting From These Dynasty WRs Might Be A Good Idea (Research)
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 26 มิ.ย. 2024
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0:00- Players/Research Scope
0:48- Target Analysis
1:42- Aiyuk and Nico
5:55- 2022 Waddle Example
6:26- Sustainability Analysis
13:05- Dynasty Implications
17:46- Buy Candidates
21:55- Rashee and Pickens
23:51- Outro - กีฬา
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make your own conclusions! this is us doing the dirty work for you to win your dynasty league!
Thanks but no thanks. I will only listen to people on TH-cam and then yell at you if you’re slightly off on any predictions
Man. Sounds like Jaylen Waddle is way better when he isn’t injured.
That and when the RBs don't take 33 all-purpose TDs
Jaylen Waddle is an elite talent. Forget the numbers watch him play
@@specstar8724fantasy is numbers dude no one is arguing that waddle isn’t insanely talented
@@coleporter7994 Talent makes numbers. Numbers don’t make talent
I went very heavy wr in startup draft I have lamb Nacua hill Godwin Watson downs meyers and Demario Douglas. Feeling very confident in that room
Amazing content fellas keep it up. Love the analytics portion of it
Yes George Pickens usage is changing they already announced he's playing more slot and will be moved all over the field this season. Upgraded QB play with higher % of catchable balls will also help despite you saying this man doesn't have some of the best hands in the NFL. Hard to catch a ball that is ruled statistically uncatchable... Pickett and Trubisky had some of the highest poor pass % throws in the league last year.
Aiyuk reception depth is based on their offense, he’s the only one on the team that can do that stuff so he has too. I think with cmc Deebo kittle etc drawing so much attention short it’s reasonable to assume aiyuk can continue to operate in that role. No defense is going to sit back and play deep against the 49ers. Honestly I think they need to get him going even more. Maybe slightly more targets slightly lower ADOT. Either way he will produce, he literally has too for their offense
Yeah theres a lot of nuisance that wasnt spoken about.
First time watching and y’all made me very happy that my top 3 WRs are Flowers, Smith, and Garret Wilson!
Been watching you guys for about a year and a half now and I was wondering, what ever happened to that long haired hippy kid who sat far right? I liked him. Also my son Avery turns 11 July 8th and I told him I want him to grow up to be just like this Avery on dynasty domain! lol thanks for all the great content fellas.
Yes, where is 3rd wheel hippy. Dude loved stirring up shit and I was here for it 😅
Simon left! he went to school and never really came back.
Ive got to start acting more like an adult if youre telling your kid that!! appreciate you my man!
Yeah gonna miss Simon 😢
Meyers love >>>
I always find it difficult navigating the value of the relatively flat production of WRs 2’s. This was very insightful, great stuff!
that was entirely the idea when we started researching!
Traded Nico for Nabers and feel great about it
how
@@jeremymccleery1214 got the deal done before diggs was sent to the Texans and before the draft, I just got the pick where I was able to get Nabers
That might to cost you for a couple years . Guy breaks out with a stud rookie QB and signs a big contract and you trade him for a rookie in aNY Giants offense.
Have you seen aNico game log .
Did you knock your teammate out with a bludgeon before getting that deal? 😂😂😂
That’s a bad trade 💀
What do you think about Higgins and a 2025 2nd for my Waddle? Or do you prefer Flowers
I have the 1.02 in a startup draft. I’m thinking about trading it away. What should I try to get in return? I think asking for a 2nd and 3rd will get the trade turned down.
Can you guys make a video on deep dynasty targets by position
I have Aiyuk and Nico. Not sure what to do with them. People have a lot of interest in them in my league but really getting what I would like from them.
Traded Aiyuk for my 2024 1 I dealt in 2022 and entered a 1 year tank. That 2024 1 is now Marvin Harrison Jr.
Traded: Aiyuk and 2024 3.5
For: 2024 1.9, and 2024 2.4 (I have 2024 1.5, 2.5, 3.6, and WR room is puka, olave, London, tee, jsn, doubs, mims, elijah more, shaheed.
love aiyuk but think it was fair for both parties
Got offered Daniels for nabers in a super flex 12 team full ppr dynasty league. Got Herbert, penix, Garrett, Pittman, nabers, zay, Addison, leggette, Adonai, Roman, Hollywood. Is it no brainer to take? Need another QB to start at SF or better to trade for someone like Bryce young?
Great video! So should I just hold Addison for the time being due to how much value he has lost due to the QB situation
i would see what you can get!
Have you considered including catchable targets in a video like this? I feel like having that statistic would add some context to Drake London vs Nico Collins when looking at YPR and total receptions
yes - i was looking at this stat as we did the video. what i noticed was that there was no correlation there. but youre right - it does matter.
For aiyuk I could see his target share go up in 2025 and beyond, kittle, deebo, and mccaffery are all aging and if he gets traded it will most likely be to a team like the Patriots or commanders where he'll be the undisputed top dog
This I agree with totally. He’s the most efficient wr in the league
Great video. In your other video saying to buy Richardson I ended up sending Stafford, Bryce Young and a 25 second for him. W? For context, I acquired the second in a different trade and I also have Kyler and Drake Maye at QB.
Yeah that's a steal
kenny picket and Desmond Ridder targets are not the same as Tua, Purdy, Stroud, Hurts, Lamar, Kirk, Mahomes targets... For Drake London and Pickens their new situation with new QBs and OCs is so different then last year i dont think last years stats can be compared or be used to predict this years production. Context is so important. Yes I agree Pickens was getting 'a lot' of targets but when a good portion are uncatchable (being sailed over his head or just awful throws) is that really his fault? is it fair to say he is 'not bringing them in' when they are much harder to 'bring in'? Same goes for London and Ridder. Both the ATL and PIT receiver situations were awful last year.
Londons ADP has reflected the kirk QB change however Pickens ADP has not and I think once we get closer to the start of season Pickens ADP will rise a lot (maybe by 10 ish picks). And if it doesn't his value will be significantly higher then it currently is by the end of the season. I am drafting both these guys everywhere i can. The imporovemnt in their situations cant be taken lightly.
Really solid and interesting information regarding everyone else though.
A WRs production sustainability has a high correlation with quality of QB and quality of targets
Thanks, I agree but we did mention in the video
1) context can affect these numbers
2) bad QB play could have led to Pickens numbers
3) London has a ton of room to grow because of situation.
I agree with everything you said, and we did mention all of that in the video.
This is an elite video
I traded Aiyuk and a late 2025 first for AJ Brown
Pickens new OC, probable he gets more short targets. Diontae Johnson is gone, more targets. Better QB play, more catchable balls and better offense. All signs are pointed straight up for his situation.
His new OC is Arthur smith…
Waddle 1-12👹
I got offered:
A 25 1st + Troy Franklin
For
My 25 2nd + Rick Pearsall
Should I accept or decline?
I'd take it. Franklin playing with his college QB and much, much less target competition. I like Ricky but he's going to be the 5th highest target earner on his team for at least this year
I would take it
Take it
Smash
Take it just to get the 1st
How do we take injuries into account for this data. Targets for an injured player in a game is zero and they would go up to the next tier if you extrapolate the data up. Aiyuk and nico were out a couple games from what I remember correct me if I'm wrong on that so would they technically fall in a different category completely which makes their red for this tier matter less?
good question. the stats we used are:
Yards Per Reception - does not rise or fall with injuries as there are no receptions with injury
Fantasy Points Per Target - does not rise or fall with injuries as there are no receptions with injury
Touchdowns - does rise or fall with injury, but is extremely volatile as we have mentioned
most of the key metrics we used are injury free metrics
@@thedynastydomain my thought though is players who play a full 17 game season would have more receptions so would no longer fall into the 100 to 115 reception range. Which I'm wondering scews those players down into this region where the injured players actually fall into the 125-140 range once you take their average receptions per game and extrapolate to the 17 games making the guys you're comparing them to the incorrect range of outcomes.
The analysis seems fine otherwise and I get where you came from but maybe the red outlier numbers are showing for aiyuk and nico because they aren't actually to be grouped with these players. They're actually tiered up on total receptions that so not accounted for.
@@lunarpizza3778good thought, but we did account for this. All players played between 15-16 games with the exception of Waddle (14), Addison and Pickens (17) meaning the sample size was almost identical across the board.
Standard deviation in targets per game among this group is only 0.38 targets. The min/max targets per game is separated by less than 1.0 targets.
Standard deviation in games played across this group is 0.87 games.
This data is sound and the conclusions from it are sound as well.
@@thedynastydomain Waddle has 126 targets if he plays in all 17 games if you assume the avg. The 2 players who played 17 games would be 20 targets short of where he's at if he plays the full season. 1 game means alot when you're talking about a 17 game season maybe you can avg it out if you're talking about basketball where they have a 82 game sample size so a few games don't matter too much but that's around 20 targets in 3 games.
Would you trade davante smith and a second for waddle
after watching this video I think the point is to do the opposite.
I would make that trade any day for waddle. Davante on his last year
Yes I would great Value
@@NK-vw4mshe got an extension though
Aiyuk was my guy last year. Then traded when his value was too high.
What did you trade him for? I have Aiyuk as well
Aiyuk / Ford & two 2025 3rd round picks
For Kincaid and Stevenson
It's was a couple months ago. 2nds instead of 3rds might still do it.
The one issue I have with this premise is that you are treating each receiver as totally equal and simply a product of their targets + TD luck. I think there was a lot of nuance missing when talking about possible regression. Big physical downfield threats like a Nico or London are expected to have higher YPR numbers and TDs than a smaller underneath player like Zay Flowers. Not to mention QB play, offensive scheme, etc. Great video idea nonetheless!
Thanks! That's the thing though, London is that type of player and had the lowest YPR and Touchdowns of anyone on this list. So its not entirely player-type dependent. Its definitely a mix of both. Definitely want to stress that context/situation as well as play style has a huge factor in this as well (I did say that in the video).
Giraffe is hilarious lmao
spongebob reference
Considering down tiering from Olave to Rice, what would you look for on top of Rice? I'm crazy deep at wr and need RB depth
Josh Jacobs level RB probably. That might not be enough.
Tough… it’s hard to use Pickens making big play after big play against him, that shouldn’t be a knock that should be a plus. It’s on the OC to get the man the easy targets, as well as the qb being competent
I dont think we are knocking him as a player at all, just knocking his worth in fantasy. You could say its anyone's fault and I would probably agree. I do think its true that he's not the target-heavy short/intermediate type of WR. Great for real life NFL, not idea for fantasy.
Would you guys trade D. Wicks for Roman Wilson?
yes
im a big believer I wicks as a talent tbh
Fuck no
Collins and Waddle both missed essentially 3 games. No one else on the list missed more than 1. Hard to gauge how it would've impacted their other metrics. I don't really understand the pessimism with Collins, Diggs at age 30 on a one year contract doesn't feel like a legitimate threat. He would've been closer to 130 targets and has contract security and QB situation. His reception perception was also elite.
As we mentioned, fantasy points per target and points per game as well as yards per reception all account for injury/missed time.
@@thedynastydomain how does it account for it? Just wondering for my understanding as I am getting more into stats for dynasty.
@@armanmughal8420it’s not punishing them for missing games. It’s comparing what they did what their targets… if you play one game and score 25 fantasy points. You’re averaging 25 points per game, even if you don’t play the other 17. It just omits the games they didn’t play
@@armanmughal8420the data presented is calculated over the production done with Targets received. If you miss games you don't get any targets those games.
I think Pickens is getting the least love of all these guys (besides Meyers) -- I think have to drop him (price of winning my league), but I'm gonna happily trade my '25 first to get him back. Probably not going to finish bottom 5, so no Luther Burden/Tetairoa McMillan/Travis Hunter for me. I think the sky's the limit for Pickens. PIT's league-best OL, Russ being one of the 5 best deep ball throwers in the past 10 years, the amount of play-action they'll be using with the Najee/Warren ground-and-pound, the replacement of Matt Canada, the lack of competition and no Diontae Johnson who was a target vacuum. I DO think that Pickens won't be in the slot much at all, and he's not the short-target kind of guy, but I think he is very much capable of being an intermediate threat. The TDs will spike with the opponents focusing on defending the run, and an overall better offense getting them in scoring position more often. IMO, you're underestimating the degree to which his situation has improved. PIT's offense based on personnel is EXACTLY what he needs to thrive. Unfortunately, the other guys I could drop are DK, Pittman, Evans, and McBride -- although Pickens may be the least valuable of the 5, if I'm unable to get him back with a '25 1st, with youth on his side and the greatest ceiling of the 5, he's the one guy I could really regret losing.
Give me an argument for dropping Pickens over Pittman -- really struggling to make it to myself when I think about AR, JT, Downs, Adonai all vying for scores and usage while Pittsburgh is Najee, Warren, and Pickens.
Who wins this deal? Rome Josh Palmer and a third for JSN Keon Coleman and a 2nd
Pretty fair IMO, gimme the best asset in Rome, I guess? Either way nobody in any league will veto a trade like that, looks pretty even to me
agreed, i would take the Rome side personally, but ican see both sides
Aiyuk 7 tds is unsustainable but smiths is? It’s just odd you’re knocking to aiyuk for being hyper productive. Imagine where aiyuk is the focus of an offense
we graded both the same, light green is within average ranges and therefore sustainable
Obviously yards predict fantasy production.
It’s hard to move Aiyuk in my league
He'll pick up some momentum when he either extends (more likely) or gets traded. But what position are you in where you want to give up a guy with 4 years of elite production ahead of him?
I got an offer:
Give away: Hall
Receiver: Olave, Conner, Bateman, and Rasheed Ali
Breece for Olave is a good base. See if they can consolidate those extra pieces into something a little nicer.
@@TheBlank8234 that’s what I was thinking. They know I was interested in Ali. Bateman is meh, along with Conner, but it is decent
Edit: tried to get Pickens but no dice
Is now the time to sell garret Wilson? Think Rodgers has a couple seasons max left realistically and then he’s left with tyrod
Tyrod will not be his QB lmao
Would you sell Nico for Waddle
Depends on which offense you like better IMO
Should I trade:
Waddle, 25 2nd, Sutton, Gus Edward’s
For P. Nacua?