Peter is such a mixed bag. Brilliant on some things, not so much on others. I always enjoy and value his perspective even though when I listen to him I do it with a huge grain of salt. I think this snippet is one of his best.
Agreed. He's a super entertaining speaker and always offers unique and interesting insights. But it's up to his audience to figure out when it's safe to take him seriously or literally and when it very much isn't. Some of his big picture descriptions are more fantasy than reality. Indeed, when taken literally some of them range between flat-out ludicrous and full-blown preposterous. For example, he claims that the reason that Russia invaded Ukraine is that, geographically speaking, Ukraine forms an express lane to Russia's underbelly, an express lane thru which Western countries will invade Russia sooner or later. Think about how astronomically unrealistic that is. How many Europeans do you know who not only want to invade Russia with offensive purpose (i.e., for conquest) but who are also willing to accept the high probability that invading Russia results in nuclear holocaust?
One thing is for sure: he has a lot of hystorical knowledge, and correlates that with human nature. But of course, only God knows what will happen. But still, PZ's predictions and conclusions seem some of the best out there.
@FlorinGN I think his predictions kind of suck really, but he brings up very important variables for others to plug into prediction equations that do workish and will make them better, variables that are often over looked. That is the value of PZ, not predictions, but making sure demographics is taken into account like it should be.
Peter also said the russians were .down to using shovels as weapons, and pulling dishwashers apart to get chips. This was in 2022. Peter's skill is public speaking, sounds confident in everything he says - ppl like certainty
He was quoting other people's reports... they were not his own words. That said, he's just as fallible as any other pundit like Putin or Biden or Xi or anyone else.
The problem with such predictions is that the assumptions they are based on are always subject to change in surprising ways. Still, it is always a good idea to build scenarios even if they do not come to pass, it helps to understand the hows and whys.
I've been following Peter since 2012 and took a good look at some of his predictions dating back to pre-2010 anyway. Not very many of them have panned out. I don't know why everybody's hitting him about this. This is just one more thing
Because the election result was obvious more than 2 years ago. What is a woman was a question about political positioning and showed anyone the future right there, nobody likes being taken for a fool.
He predicted the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2010. He also predicted that the year of the invasion would be 2022. So, he's got some hits and misses. He's only human after all.
I don’t know what you’re talking about. I’ve been following him since STRATFOR and he has been pretty damn accurate. There was a little thing called Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, which have influence how governments act around the world and some of the demographic challenges have been actually amplified.
The point around his projections is rather simple. The shorter term and more related to partisan politics in the USA he is and the shorter the time table..... The worse he is. Farther out and away from internal USA politics he's much better. + For those crowing about China being fine still. You need to go dig a little into the numbers. + Find some alternative sources of information.
say what you will but he gets people thinking about things most wont even consider. He doesn't have to be "right" to have a positive impact on geopolitics. He makes folks engage the brain housing group. (shout out to the USAF)
He predicted Russia's invasion of Ukraine down to a couple of years. He predicted China's down turn. He's predicted lots of things that have come to pass; he's also predicted some that haven't (at least not yet). Just because you don't agree with him, doesn't mean he's always wrong or his reasoning useless. Smh. We need to be better people
Yup, he's a clown, what is conventional and asinine is usually right, what is novel is usually interesting but dead wrong, and what is predicted is unadulterated speculative bullshit delivered as scientific certainty. He's, at best, a broken clock, at worst a complete fraud. He's the pseudo-expert who somehow only seems brilliant to people knowing nothing of the field he pontificates about. He's the Jordan Peterson of geopolitics.
The good Mr. Zeihan is not always spot on with his analysis but the factors he talks about are part of the eventual outcomes. I think of Mr. Zeihan's prognostications and analyses as a bit like the mpg reported on the dashboard of my vehicle. The actual fuel mileage occurring at any given moment is different from the average reported on the dashboard but over time the dashboard number is pretty close.
Yeah but he also predicted China would collapse by 2020 back in early 2010. I mean that was pretty horrifically incorrect so he's no stranger to getting things dead wrong
Things change and things get delayed. Doesn't mean china is in the clear. Plus he's not wrong to think America was smart enough not to vote for a rapist traitor. But he was wrong. They did.
Yeah but China didn't collapse by 2020 as he predicted and migrants didn't stop coming in like 2019 or whatever even the Russia Ukraine thing was pretty predictable by 2012 or what not after what they done in Georgia and been saying about Ukraine. I don't know. I don't think he's got a great record anyway
When Peter said after the end of WWII the US occupied all of the Belligerent Powers. I'll remind him that the Soviets went to war against Poland in 1939, just like Germany.
I am amazed at the negative comments about Peter's election forecast, (predict or estimate future conditions or trends), that was made first made over 10 years ago. Forecasts are are just that, "forecasts" and not history. In considering the election, there were a couple of "minor" events that were not expected and certainly not predicted, (such as COVID 19), that changed the world and had a significant effect on the "world order". When COVID "hit" no one really knew what to do or how it would affect not only their lives but also virtually every aspect of the modern world. Two of the direct results of COVID were, 1) money was infused into the economy that resulted in the highest inflation in years, and 2) the reshoring of supply chains which in turn has hastened the economic contraction in China. The conditions, are somewhat similar to the conditions that caused the great depression and the rise of Authoritarian rulers in the 1930's. Protectionism, (Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act) and isolationism resulted in Political changes throughout the world and was the result in America, much like it is today. (in 1940 Roosevelt elected on the pledge that he would keep the US out of war was also the a authorian President since possibly Lincoln). (During times of uncertainty, it is natural for people to was authorian leaders. There was also a massive political "relinement that took place throughout the countries of the industrialized world. As a result, the Republican Party, the party in power in the 1920's lost five presidential electrons in a row. Therefore, we should not be surprised by unexpected economic and political results that can, in large measure, be traced to two very unexpected although related events, COVID and the reshoring of supply chains. [I haven't touched on immigration, but the non-enforcement of immigration into the US as well as other unforeseen positions taken by both parties regarding military, energy, and social policies and the public reaction to them, taken together, could not and were not anticipated by anyone I have heard of]. So getting back to where I started, a forecast is a forecast which will be necessity, based on various conditions that do or are likely to exist and not upon events that are neither anticipated let alone, considered.
The video topic is essentially history of globalization & the effect of demographics on international security and trade. No specific predictions are made. The analysis in the video is well done. Since there are plenty of haters in the comments that have predictions on their mind. Let's look at that. The only criticism I have is predictions are better if they have some probability associated with them. Doing so takes intelligence & some guts. If you invest your money, you are making predictions. People that plan want to have some notion of the future. It's necessary. While Peter's predictions are not divine, they are among the ones worth the consideration of us humans.
18:29 “Build where you sell” first came to the US in the 1960’s with a little motorcycle company establishing a plant in Marysville, Ohio. That little motorcycle company? You might have heard of it… it’s called HONDA. There are three plants in western Ohio alone who produce a good number of the cars you see on the road today.
@JohnDorian-j7x well we are not a manufacturering empire like China or a financial empire like England. We have military bases in 80 foreign countries. We are a military or killing people empire. We are the largest manufacturer of weapons in the world. The US dollar is backed not by gold but by the fear of death.
The 1st modern democracy was the the Netherlands (Dutch Republic 1579), the USA was the 2nd ~200 years later (1776). In the 17th century the Dutch had a merchant fleet larger than all other fleets in the world together. In 1688 the Dutch visited England with 400 ships and 40,000 men, then the biggest invasion fleet ever. The result was, that the Dutch stadtholder (president) and his wife an English princess became King and Queen of England. William III had to ask the Dutch parliament for budget and approval of the "visit", so he knew, how to deal with parliaments and had no issue signing the UK Bill of Rights. In 1672 the Dutch Republic was attacked by West Germany and France on land and by France and England on the sea. The Dutch Republic just survived, but it became essential for the future to break the alliance between England and France, both ruled by catholic kings. To remove the catholic king, the Dutch supported and paid the UK protestants and in 1688 they made sure by invading the UK. After 1688 England and the Netherlands were alleys for ~100 years. The Dutch were the world power in the 17th century, because they invented the stock market and the 2 large shipping companies always had enough capital to even maintain own private armies and navies. The Dutch East India Company was so rich, that corrected for inflation, it seems to have been more valuable than the biggest US compagnies now. Because the Dutch Republic was extremely wealthy, it could afford many of the best mercenaries from Switzerland and Germany. The Dutch power disappeared at the end of the 18th century, when the armies relied more and more on large number of conscripts from the own population. Another reason for the decline was, that the merchants more and more traded in stocks and derivaties instead of physical stuff. Famous former Dutch colonies are e.g. Indonesia till 1945/49; Sri Lanka; South Africa (1795) Suriname (1975); Aruba; Curacao; Recife (Brasil) and New York. After a war New York was swapped for Suriname, because at that time New York produced animal skins and Suriname sugar.
Judging by how Dutch Protestants treated people in those Colonies you mention, you can certainly wish that the Spanish Empire should have never allowed the Dutch to leave the empire or backed the Peace of wesphalia. Unfortunately, there was bigger fish to fry with the Ottomans expanding into east europe. They should have raised armies from their ultramar kingdoms in the Americas, to go and finish that war for good and save the legitimacy and morality of the "west" in front of the world, but nobody can see the future I guess...and what is done, is done....
A very interesting and meaningful analysis. A topic not mentioned but could be of great impact is Artificial Intelligence. Most scientists assume that this could take over much of the work of even skilled personnel. This will potentially have a huge positive impact on demographics, after all the ratio of workers to output will change dramatically.
@@mariorobertocueto4531 I never said robots will consume. Those who think AI will have no impact are terribly wrong. But the interesting thing here is that in the formula, if work generates the money for most of the world's population and that part of the formula is largely filled in by AI & robotics, there will be a huge challenge to define a new model that is acceptable to everyone. It's more than just math, that's the easy part. It's going to cause huge social upheaval first. And unlike in the last industrial revolution, this impact will affect many more jobs and industries and have a much deeper impact than any technology befor. Isaac Asimov's books already give quite a few ideas about the implications.
Mr. Zeihan, could you please explain why the US sponsored the overthrow of democracies and their replacement with brutal dictatorships in Latin America in the 1960s and 1970s instead of being soft on them like they did with the Europeans? Could you also analyze how and why these same dictatorships took out loans from North American banks and how this was related to the various foreign debt defaults in these countries in the 1980s? Thanks
Check out a book called the 4th turning... it describes the times we're in and why... there is a natural cycle to human civilization, countries, morals, etc... and they've repeated down the centuries. We (humanity) are in a 4th turning according to this analysis.
4th turning is a CRISIS period that usually causes a world war (WWII or USA Civil war or 1776). The book says that we have repeating cycles every 80 years which is one human lifespan, broken into four periods of 20 years each. Trump is just the kind of moron to escalate our present CRISIS period into a world war III ... A great book - my wise mother gave it to me when I was in graduate school in 1990...
Yeah remember jamie dimon pushin this idea. it leaves me skeptical as bankers only promote insight and predictions to the public unless they can somehow benefit or profit from it. So either this theory is something he and his interests are invested in and would be able to capitalize from, or he wants to promote this change narrative because he is aware of forces that limit its potential and can make money off markets preparing for a chaotic shift.
I very strongly would disagree about inter-member military competition being banned by the treaty that formed NATO initially; the members would regularly wargame various scenarios; that's readiness drills, and nations that don't carry out those tests really are setting themselves up for being overrun: they cease to *train* so they're ready for invasion when the time comes and won't put up any real resistance at all!
So your not continuously psychic in this possible/ probable multidimensional multiverse where soul/selfs deserve the conscious creation, using the gift of intellect. Thank you.🎶🌸
Absolutely correct we were born from a rebellion against colonialism so it's the last thing we wanted after world war II. It would make us the world's greatest hypocrite s ... We're smarter than that ...
@@sdrc92126but that takes vision. Boomers were the children of WW II veterans, and they never wanted their children to experience large scale conflict. Today every generation is more depressed than the last. They dont have a positive worldview. If anything America has developed an isolasionist worldview from fighting in ME so much.
I certainly enjoy listening to his lectures, but I am totally baffled by the choice of graphics for this one. His comments on demography are unmatched by anyone else. I’ll keep listening with a bit of jaundice in my eye.
The boy who cried wolf. When you keep saying the world is about to imminently collapse, people will start to tune you out, even if eventually it turns out to happen.
Take the cases of the Amerindian nations: those we quite happily invaded and annexed; to the point that today you cannot find on a map of these United States the borders of their reservations; so yeah, it really is that we simply do not and really never did want to annex anybody else's land; we had more than the capacity to annex at least half of Europe post WW2: their resources and capacity for war was in *shambles*, we could've just marched right on in and annexed all the areas we wanted; we simply did NOT WANT TO AT ALL... and the areas we've conqurered, we have by far been the most merciful conquerors in world history- and then some!
In all Zeihan’s analyses you should notice a common angle , namely demographic. All point to a decline population would equate to a decline in national wealth. No regards to advances of science.
These sorts of analysts can never accurately predict the future because it is an attempt to predict people. Particularly trying to predict the decisions people will make.
Interesting video but the visuals were not very related to the audio content. This video would be better with a still photo and not irrelevant pictures of 18th century American history.
Well,though predictive analysis remarks are tricky,Peter provides some of the more palatable experiences,which translate to some interesting thought processes.I like him enough to not need every prediction to be absolute(after all that is the futures job!)but to keep reminding us of so many of the ramifications and potential outcomes 😊
Two suggestions: 1. Don't use random graphics to keep people from getting bored. Use something related to the words being spoken. 2. Don't rely on speech-to-text because it has an error rate high enough to be a put-off. Have human editors clean it up. Really, find grad students or somebody accustomed to working for slave wages. Give them screen credits, but spare your viewers the erroneous captions.
I don’t understand why people like Zeihan see a socialist world government as the only solution, particularly when the U.S. exceeds that sad model every day.
HE NEVER SAID THAT! Stop trying to scare everybody with your right wing scare tactics! It only works on right wing chicken people like yourself not on left-wing people smart enough to handle change!
Communism is a religion (utopia), socialism is the economics tool of destruction to normalize human existence into this new reality. In reality, it's just another monarchy where the ruing class owns all of the world's resources and the serfs are happy just enough to reproduce at the rate required to keep the elite machine running.
And regarding our conquests of the areas of North America we have as part of our country: we *still* aren't done metabolizing them- and won't be for quite some time; we simply have to drastically increase our population, simple as that.
Good lord... looking at comments, yes the cultists are out. Why is there so much bitterness coming from people who should be happy? Do you guys know how to be happy? Breath it in, and take a moment of contentment and satisfaction. You will get everything you asked for and deserve.
Ahahahaha! We are very happy laughing at you fools being wrong once again. We have been unburdened by what has been, the consequences of your stupidity.
@boufns8 oh man what an epic burn. You really put me in my place by insulting a politician that I view as a public servant, not a godlike leader. Peace and prosperity... hope will carry you through.
@@francisrauth9201 No I insulted you, you got what you deserved from Joe and it's funny how petty you are. You just can't help projecting you horrible choices on smarter people. So petty, so pathetic, such a loser.😂😂
Whats with the slides? At 21:47 He's talking about the Japanese Navy and we're looking at visuals of Lewis and Clark Expedition? Are these randomised or what?
The Canadian and Australian Navies were also fairly large and survived the War. The Canadian Navy was the 3rd largest in the world. The Commonwealth at this point was exhausted.
I've known for forty years government couldn't just spend over tax income forever. The crisis that ensues afterwards isn't so easy to predict. Job losses and quickly rising crime rates are a certainty. Business collapses are a given. Unpaid rents should be expected. Store closings due to theft will be widespread. Gun battles as people try to protect their property will ensue. Smart money will leave for more peaceful shores. Wars may erupt, and supply chains will be disturbed. Government intervention to stabilize food distribution and supply will be needed. Bullit proof vests and kevlar head protection will be advised. Power supplies may often be disrupted. No one can have enough supplies for years. Gardens will be raided..Honest work, hard to find. Money will be short, prices high!
He predicts the direction of various processes. It is impossible to give times when it will happen. The fall of the Berlin Wall is an example. No one predicted that the USA would become a fascist state in 2025 either.
The key is always populations though- Europe and America has stopped having kids. The Middle East is exploding with population and has resources in Russia and China. People need to have kids.
People only have children if they have at least a good prospect of affording them. They need decent publicly funded education, healthcare, housing, well paid occupations, infrastructure and dignified retirement. The corporate dominated democratic world economy does not share wealth. Autocracies don't have the same contraints and across the world are combining to overthrow the global economic, military and political order. If they succeed they will fight over the spoils.
People only have children if they have at least a good prospect of affording them. They need decent publicly funded education, healthcare, housing, well paid occupations, infrastructure and dignified retirement. The corporate dominated democratic world economy does not share wealth. Autocracies don't have the same contraints and across the world are combining to overthrow the global economic, military and political order. If they succeed they will fight over the spoils.
People only have children if they have at least a good prospect of affording them. They need decent publicly funded education, healthcare, housing, well paid occupations, infrastructure and dignified retirement. The corporate dominated democratic world economy does not share wealth. Autocracies don't have the same contraints and across the world are combining to overthrow the global economic, military and political order. If they succeed they will fight over the spoils.
You want a film sample of the end of the Cold War? Take "Star Trek VI: the Undiscovered Country" and that's almost exactly; event-for-event, an alogory for the collapse of the Eastern Bloc; Praxis there stands in for Chernobyl/Prepyin village and nuclear power base; "Gorkon" there is a stand-in for Gorbachev almost *exactly*, now some events changed, but the general event sequence is way too close too be discounted. Now regarding Breton Woods alliance; of course its members would be testing their militaries among eachother; if peace is the career of the soldiers; as they profess: they train for war so that they can be *able* to ensure peace when the time comes, or they're really scammed in their career applications!
No, we carried out that war *right*; we really relied upon proxies to wage the war; and oddly enough, right from the Soviet invasion of Greece at the end of WW2; it was "Koba" who'd given us that gameplan; he sent in almost entirely Bulgarians and Yugoslavians who he'd brainwashed to do his dirty-work for him; nobody went *out* of the Eastern Bloc in those days but with the missions sent *by* their central administration, not without SERIOUS repurcussions for those they left behind (universally: murder in the gulags). That meant that all these "refugees" that "arrived" in Greece back then were really universally *sent there* by STAVKA to do the damage as a preliminary assault; plus they were *armed* and how would they obtain them given the overt *paranoia* of the governments there? Nothing else makes sense. Given that, and our nuclear arsonel; it only makes sense that we'd rely on proxies to do the fighting against them- plus if they commit their own best troops: you get a first-rate lesson in their equipment, gear, and training: thus to commit your own troops is really to play into an intelligence trap, not that we didn't: the Korean War is one example where STAVKA got really good readouts of our gear and training mechanisms by fighting *indirectly* and watching their vassals do the damage. Now we didn't lack the capacity; but we have never had the *will* to try to do that: take Iraq, we could've obtained it all; but what happened? As soon as we were able: we bugged out and handed it back to the Iraqis to govern their own country: it is not that we're bad at governing; we're really quite good at it- it is that we really have a *cultural distaste* for it that we must never throw out- we as a people really do believe in free will as a concept; not being someone's overlord! The latter really does reek to us as the hyper-abusive nature of Hell's culture; something we really do NOT want to partake in!
So how was a relatively developing country like Great Britain manage to govern a quarter of the world's population and land area? And we had already forced every other developing country to give up slavery in UK.
Truth is the U.S. had no desire to build an empire. It's people and most politicians at that time were tired of war and only wanted to get back to normal. August 1945. The U.S. had over 13 million soldiers in uniform.(the largest army in world history)A combined Navy near 9,000 vessels with over 120 aircraft carriers. The only nuclear power and an assembly line rolling out nukes every week. And a number of allies that would willingly cooperate. No occupation would he required. Only small military detachment for monitoring. No one could develop their own nukes without notice. We hear you want to develop nukes Let us drop a few off to you😱💥💥 ruZZia was an economic disaster highly dependent on the U.S.. and the communist Chinese were all grouped together in a small region. The U.S. could have destroyed Mao and his small group of minions in a couple months primarily being a bombing campaign. The National Chinese could have handled everything else once they reorganized.👈 They were initially in disarray being scattered fighting the Japanese. The U.S. would have bought them time to organize with a bombing campaign.
I find Zeihan to be earnest, knowledgeable and intelligent, but somehow usually somewhat off the mark in his conclusions. There seems to be something off in his synthesis process.
If you didn't know Peter Zeihan, if I just showed him to you and asked "what do you think of this sketch comedy act making fun of those geo-political talking heads online?" Do you think you would know it wasn't sketch comedy? Do you think the man-bun might convince it was satire? How about the grandiose overconfidence?
I must say, Mr Zeihan, is a bit of a charlatan. He does understand the world around us quite well, and even history, but in my opinion interprets world events in a way to entertain mostly his audience, and likes to sell world ending tunes to the rest of us.
World changing. It's his job to "predict" and anyone who predicts is going to get things wrong. Also it is his job to sell entertaining and generalist geopolitics to large audiences and private clients. He has a style like anyone on here these days. Make money doing what ya love.
I love Peter, the manure spreader from Iowa. Never let the fact stop you ❤. It’s amazing how high he can stack that crap, one piece of misinformation on another, all in an industrial paradigm. The greatest showman on any sewer circuit.
That is very good. Amazing even. In essence you have captured much of what James Madison wrote about. He reasoned that America would NOT be able to stomach the parasitic nature of the industrial countries of Europe. He knew it would be in our best interests to promote growth abroad and encouraging world stability and peer trading. Good to see the right ideas being upgraded. The amazing wonder of the miracles that flowed from our Founding Fathers.
Hes a demographics guy, and he said that almost a year ago. In that discussion he's said Trump has brought in the Union voters to the Republicans while the Business class voters have shifted toward Democrats. Which is true and still an odd dynamic. It's part of his "every 40 years political cycle" comments, which are pretty accurate. He said Biden would defeat Trump, unless something happens to Biden, then it's anyone's guess. It's hard to predict that democrats would field an enfeebled man in clear mental decline, replace with their most unpopular politician from the previous cycle, and then decline to campaign in earnest. My opinion, he failed to capture the importance of inflation on the election. The point is, predictions are only good until the scenario changes.
Peter enjoyed your speak. worker bots i suspect are on their way to make up for reduced production. money inputs to sustain large population Social Security and Retiree income/medical needs I dont know.
Smart enough to sound confident in his oration so poorly educated people listen with ooos and ahhhs, but the wise see he mixes facts with his version of "the way it should be" according to him, but not the way that it is.
Peter the reason you got the POTUS election wrong . Is in my opinion was due to a critical thinking bias, specifically as you are an independent you inflated their importance. Secondly numbers or the past does not necessarily predict the future, especially the voting populace. Just my opinion.
Zeihan's analysis of the post-war order checks out--but it's textbook stuff that any analyst could tell you. Doesn't take a genius to know this stuff. Whereas, the jury is still out regarding his predictions. So, I think where Zeihan differs from other analysts is he's willing to make alarmist predictions and then throw out highly specific dates in order to drive traffic to his social medias. In this respect, he's a charlatan. That doesn't mean his analyses are off point, per se. Though, you should take his predictions with a grain of salt. Especially the more alarmist ones. It's maybe more useful to look at what he's saying as identifying stress points and potential risks in the system--as well as opportunities--that governments and business leaders should take into account when formulating policy. It's just, he's not a prophet, even though he implicitly presents himself as that. One thing I do believe in is what you might call the law of gravity. Not gravity in a literal sense. I mean it figuratively. Like, a few savvy Wall Street analysts prior to the sub-prime mortgage crisis ran the numbers and knew without a doubt that the market was trending toward a major collapse. They just couldn't predict when exactly. They only had a ballpark. That's gravity. The outcome in a general sense was inevitable. But the specifics of the outcome were unclear. Likewise, we also know that if your country has favourable geography and lies in a favourable climate zone, the outcome is your country is going to be rich. Whereas if your country is in a geographically unfavourable region, the outcome is you're going to be poor. But the specifics aren't clear and there's also mitigating variables that can lead to outlier results. There's lots of things that fall under this heading from macroeconomic and campaign analysis to just understanding demographic trends. It's gravity in the sense that, all else being equal, we kind of know where things are going without some intervening factor. The issue with Zeihan is he makes a lot of highly specific predictions on the basis of highly generic, and comparatively well understood, circumstances, while presenting it in an "I'm the only one who sees this coming!" fashion. He acts cocksure that he's right and yet most of his predictions have yet to materialize. Though, they may yet, given enough time. That being said, it's fair to point out that the previous world order does appear to be in the process of unraveling and we're about to transition into a major new paradigm. But we can't predict where things will inevitably end up because reality isn't deterministic and unexpected variables can always come out of left field that reshape the entire equation. Of course, all else being equal, a broken clock is right at least twice in a day. If I told you that I knew with 100% certainty your death is coming, I'd be right. But if I told you that your death is coming in the next 5 minutes, I would probably only have .0005% odds of being right. On the other hand, if I made a bet that most Americans aged 40 or over would be dead within the next 20-40 years, I'd be absolutely correct. Because that's gravity.
This is the last time I listen to this guy The holes in his geopolitical rhetoric are too numerous to even warrant further comment May I suggest -- Mearsheimer, Jeffery Sachs, the Duran, Glen Diesen Bye bye
Peter is such a mixed bag. Brilliant on some things, not so much on others. I always enjoy and value his perspective even though when I listen to him I do it with a huge grain of salt. I think this snippet is one of his best.
Agreed. He's a super entertaining speaker and always offers unique and interesting insights. But it's up to his audience to figure out when it's safe to take him seriously or literally and when it very much isn't. Some of his big picture descriptions are more fantasy than reality. Indeed, when taken literally some of them range between flat-out ludicrous and full-blown preposterous. For example, he claims that the reason that Russia invaded Ukraine is that, geographically speaking, Ukraine forms an express lane to Russia's underbelly, an express lane thru which Western countries will invade Russia sooner or later. Think about how astronomically unrealistic that is. How many Europeans do you know who not only want to invade Russia with offensive purpose (i.e., for conquest) but who are also willing to accept the high probability that invading Russia results in nuclear holocaust?
When he says something I like he is smart, when he says something I don’t like he is dumb. I am a very intelligent American
One thing is for sure: he has a lot of hystorical knowledge, and correlates that with human nature.
But of course, only God knows what will happen. But still, PZ's predictions and conclusions seem some of the best out there.
@FlorinGN I think his predictions kind of suck really, but he brings up very important variables for others to plug into prediction equations that do workish and will make them better, variables that are often over looked. That is the value of PZ, not predictions, but making sure demographics is taken into account like it should be.
@infocyde2024 Yes! He is one of the loudest about demographics, I like that.
Peter also said the russians were .down to using shovels as weapons, and pulling dishwashers apart to get chips. This was in 2022. Peter's skill is public speaking, sounds confident in everything he says - ppl like certainty
Peter predicted that Russia would beat Ukraine but in reality Russia is a joke.
He was quoting other people's reports... they were not his own words. That said, he's just as fallible as any other pundit like Putin or Biden or Xi or anyone else.
Peter is just trying to understand a changing world.
@@johnwright9372 He should study abused child PTSD. Hitler was an abused child.
@@samdunn717 it's funny how people are so easily persuaded these days.
The problem with such predictions is that the assumptions they are based on are always subject to change in surprising ways.
Still, it is always a good idea to build scenarios even if they do not come to pass, it helps to understand the hows and whys.
I've been following Peter since 2012 and took a good look at some of his predictions dating back to pre-2010 anyway. Not very many of them have panned out. I don't know why everybody's hitting him about this. This is just one more thing
Because the election result was obvious more than 2 years ago. What is a woman was a question about political positioning and showed anyone the future right there, nobody likes being taken for a fool.
He predicted the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2010. He also predicted that the year of the invasion would be 2022. So, he's got some hits and misses. He's only human after all.
I don’t know what you’re talking about. I’ve been following him since STRATFOR and he has been pretty damn accurate. There was a little thing called Covid and the invasion of Ukraine, which have influence how governments act around the world and some of the demographic challenges have been actually amplified.
The point around his projections is rather simple.
The shorter term and more related to partisan politics in the USA he is and the shorter the time table.....
The worse he is.
Farther out and away from internal USA politics he's much better.
+ For those crowing about China being fine still.
You need to go dig a little into the numbers.
+ Find some alternative sources of information.
@@gmanbo I believe he stopped giving his opinion on US elections almost a year ago before Biden bowed out.
One day this guy will get something right
I doubt it.
say what you will but he gets people thinking about things most wont even consider. He doesn't have to be "right" to have a positive impact on geopolitics. He makes folks engage the brain housing group. (shout out to the USAF)
He predicted Russia's invasion of Ukraine down to a couple of years. He predicted China's down turn. He's predicted lots of things that have come to pass; he's also predicted some that haven't (at least not yet). Just because you don't agree with him, doesn't mean he's always wrong or his reasoning useless. Smh. We need to be better people
Ukraine. He got Ukraine right
He's entertaining, don't take his predictions seriously
Yeah, he's peddling speculations as truths.
Yup, he's a clown, what is conventional and asinine is usually right, what is novel is usually interesting but dead wrong, and what is predicted is unadulterated speculative bullshit delivered as scientific certainty.
He's, at best, a broken clock, at worst a complete fraud.
He's the pseudo-expert who somehow only seems brilliant to people knowing nothing of the field he pontificates about.
He's the Jordan Peterson of geopolitics.
Youre right. I saw a tree fall the other day. The whole world is falling apart
Brother you ain’t seen nothing yet. The forest is on fire.
The good Mr. Zeihan is not always spot on with his analysis but the factors he talks about are part of the eventual outcomes. I think of Mr. Zeihan's prognostications and analyses as a bit like the mpg reported on the dashboard of my vehicle. The actual fuel mileage occurring at any given moment is different from the average reported on the dashboard but over time the dashboard number is pretty close.
Didn’t this guy make a prediction about the Trump election, saying he was going to get blown out like Mondale?
Yeah but he also predicted China would collapse by 2020 back in early 2010. I mean that was pretty horrifically incorrect so he's no stranger to getting things dead wrong
Along with other people with excellent track records at predicting presidential outcomes. Who were also wrong.
Things change and things get delayed. Doesn't mean china is in the clear. Plus he's not wrong to think America was smart enough not to vote for a rapist traitor. But he was wrong. They did.
His predictions are hilarious.pretty much listen to what he predicts and the opposite will happen.
Yeah but China didn't collapse by 2020 as he predicted and migrants didn't stop coming in like 2019 or whatever even the Russia Ukraine thing was pretty predictable by 2012 or what not after what they done in Georgia and been saying about Ukraine. I don't know. I don't think he's got a great record anyway
Not sure why you're showing Colonial pictures!??
Historical precedent of imperialism - shown to be impracticable
Yeah, I don't remember the Japanese founders wearing powdered wigs either.
When Peter said after the end of WWII the US occupied all of the Belligerent Powers.
I'll remind him that the Soviets went to war against Poland in 1939, just like Germany.
Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact.
He also forgot Rumania, Bulgaria and Hungary
Peter is right more than wrong. But he talks of the future - a dicy topic always.
And your point is .....?
And your point is....?
I am amazed at the negative comments about Peter's election forecast, (predict or estimate future conditions or trends), that was made first made over 10 years ago. Forecasts are are just that, "forecasts" and not history. In considering the election, there were a couple of "minor" events that were not expected and certainly not predicted, (such as COVID 19), that changed the world and had a significant effect on the "world order". When COVID "hit" no one really knew what to do or how it would affect not only their lives but also virtually every aspect of the modern world. Two of the direct results of COVID were, 1) money was infused into the economy that resulted in the highest inflation in years, and 2) the reshoring of supply chains which in turn has hastened the economic contraction in China. The conditions, are somewhat similar to the conditions that caused the great depression and the rise of Authoritarian rulers in the 1930's. Protectionism, (Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act) and isolationism resulted in Political changes throughout the world and was the result in America, much like it is today. (in 1940 Roosevelt elected on the pledge that he would keep the US out of war was also the a authorian President since possibly Lincoln). (During times of uncertainty, it is natural for people to was authorian leaders. There was also a massive political "relinement that took place throughout the countries of the industrialized world. As a result, the Republican Party, the party in power in the 1920's lost five presidential electrons in a row. Therefore, we should not be surprised by unexpected economic and political results that can, in large measure, be traced to two very unexpected although related events, COVID and the reshoring of supply chains. [I haven't touched on immigration, but the non-enforcement of immigration into the US as well as other unforeseen positions taken by both parties regarding military, energy, and social policies and the public reaction to them, taken together, could not and were not anticipated by anyone I have heard of]. So getting back to where I started, a forecast is a forecast which will be necessity, based on various conditions that do or are likely to exist and not upon events that are neither anticipated let alone, considered.
Not 10 years ago…. It was LIVE…at one of his seminars… I think Mexico… this last summer! Nice try
He predicted that Biden COULDN'T lose, this was in 2023.
What are you talking about?
The video topic is essentially history of globalization & the effect of demographics on international security and trade. No specific predictions are made. The analysis in the video is well done. Since there are plenty of haters in the comments that have predictions on their mind. Let's look at that. The only criticism I have is predictions are better if they have some probability associated with them. Doing so takes intelligence & some guts. If you invest your money, you are making predictions. People that plan want to have some notion of the future. It's necessary. While Peter's predictions are not divine, they are among the ones worth the consideration of us humans.
0😊
Excellent condensation of how we got to whatever is the mess we're in now
18:29 “Build where you sell” first came to the US in the 1960’s with a little motorcycle company establishing a plant in Marysville, Ohio. That little motorcycle company? You might have heard of it… it’s called HONDA. There are three plants in western Ohio alone who produce a good number of the cars you see on the road today.
The music is appropriate because this is a fiery tale. No nation in history has had military bases in as many countries as we have. This is an empire.
So if we didn't have so many military bases abroad, we wouldn't be an empire?
@JohnDorian-j7x well we are not a manufacturering empire like China or a financial empire like England. We have military bases in 80 foreign countries. We are a military or killing people empire. We are the largest manufacturer of weapons in the world. The US dollar is backed not by gold but by the fear of death.
The 1st modern democracy was the the Netherlands (Dutch Republic 1579), the USA was the 2nd ~200 years later (1776). In the 17th century the Dutch had a merchant fleet larger than all other fleets in the world together. In 1688 the Dutch visited England with 400 ships and 40,000 men, then the biggest invasion fleet ever. The result was, that the Dutch stadtholder (president) and his wife an English princess became King and Queen of England. William III had to ask the Dutch parliament for budget and approval of the "visit", so he knew, how to deal with parliaments and had no issue signing the UK Bill of Rights.
In 1672 the Dutch Republic was attacked by West Germany and France on land and by France and England on the sea. The Dutch Republic just survived, but it became essential for the future to break the alliance between England and France, both ruled by catholic kings. To remove the catholic king, the Dutch supported and paid the UK protestants and in 1688 they made sure by invading the UK. After 1688 England and the Netherlands were alleys for ~100 years.
The Dutch were the world power in the 17th century, because they invented the stock market and the 2 large shipping companies always had enough capital to even maintain own private armies and navies. The Dutch East India Company was so rich, that corrected for inflation, it seems to have been more valuable than the biggest US compagnies now. Because the Dutch Republic was extremely wealthy, it could afford many of the best mercenaries from Switzerland and Germany.
The Dutch power disappeared at the end of the 18th century, when the armies relied more and more on large number of conscripts from the own population. Another reason for the decline was, that the merchants more and more traded in stocks and derivaties instead of physical stuff. Famous former Dutch colonies are e.g. Indonesia till 1945/49; Sri Lanka; South Africa (1795) Suriname (1975); Aruba; Curacao; Recife (Brasil) and New York. After a war New York was swapped for Suriname, because at that time New York produced animal skins and Suriname sugar.
Judging by how Dutch Protestants treated people in those Colonies you mention, you can certainly wish that the Spanish Empire should have never allowed the Dutch to leave the empire or backed the Peace of wesphalia.
Unfortunately, there was bigger fish to fry with the Ottomans expanding into east europe.
They should have raised armies from their ultramar kingdoms in the Americas, to go and finish that war for good and save the legitimacy and morality of the "west" in front of the world, but nobody can see the future I guess...and what is done, is done....
I have no horse in this race, but for those that are critical of Zehihan, can you remommend a better source for geopolitical information?
A very interesting and meaningful analysis. A topic not mentioned but could be of great impact is Artificial Intelligence. Most scientists assume that this could take over much of the work of even skilled personnel. This will potentially have a huge positive impact on demographics, after all the ratio of workers to output will change dramatically.
The production side of equation.is solvable through robotics. But robots do not consume the products robots produce.
@@mariorobertocueto4531 I never said robots will consume. Those who think AI will have no impact are terribly wrong. But the interesting thing here is that in the formula, if work generates the money for most of the world's population and that part of the formula is largely filled in by AI & robotics, there will be a huge challenge to define a new model that is acceptable to everyone. It's more than just math, that's the easy part. It's going to cause huge social upheaval first. And unlike in the last industrial revolution, this impact will affect many more jobs and industries and have a much deeper impact than any technology befor. Isaac Asimov's books already give quite a few ideas about the implications.
Mr. Zeihan, could you please explain why the US sponsored the overthrow of democracies and their replacement with brutal dictatorships in Latin America in the 1960s and 1970s instead of being soft on them like they did with the Europeans? Could you also analyze how and why these same dictatorships took out loans from North American banks and how this was related to the various foreign debt defaults in these countries in the 1980s? Thanks
Check out a book called the 4th turning... it describes the times we're in and why... there is a natural cycle to human civilization, countries, morals, etc... and they've repeated down the centuries. We (humanity) are in a 4th turning according to this analysis.
I've been meaning to read it, probably similar to Ray Dalio's :the Changing World Order". Have you read that yet?
@@jonesmatthew7511 the 4th turning is a better book than dalio's
4th turning is a CRISIS period that usually causes a world war (WWII or USA Civil war or 1776). The book says that we have repeating cycles every 80 years which is one human lifespan, broken into four periods of 20 years each. Trump is just the kind of moron to escalate our present CRISIS period into a world war III ... A great book - my wise mother gave it to me when I was in graduate school in 1990...
It seems to be rather forced and directed. Cultures have lived for hundreds and thousands of years without these turnings.
Yeah remember jamie dimon pushin this idea. it leaves me skeptical as bankers only promote insight and predictions to the public unless they can somehow benefit or profit from it. So either this theory is something he and his interests are invested in and would be able to capitalize from, or he wants to promote this change narrative because he is aware of forces that limit its potential and can make money off markets preparing for a chaotic shift.
Anyone can make a guess. Some may be on target----most will not. That's the world we all live in, and always have done so.
I very strongly would disagree about inter-member military competition being banned by the treaty that formed NATO initially; the members would regularly wargame various scenarios; that's readiness drills, and nations that don't carry out those tests really are setting themselves up for being overrun: they cease to *train* so they're ready for invasion when the time comes and won't put up any real resistance at all!
He’s predicted six of the last three calamities.
So your not continuously psychic in this possible/ probable multidimensional
multiverse where soul/selfs deserve the conscious creation, using the gift of intellect. Thank you.🎶🌸
Peter your record is still perfect. Your wrong again.😅
That made me laugh, pretty much true. He woke me up to how important demographics are, so I give him that.
Did it ever cross your mind that maybe America didn't want to be an empire builder?
Absolutely correct we were born from a rebellion against colonialism so it's the last thing we wanted after world war II. It would make us the world's greatest hypocrite s ... We're smarter than that ...
After WW2, the US had an intact industrial base untouched by the war and a 5 year head start on the abum. It could have easily conquered the world.
@@sdrc92126but that takes vision. Boomers were the children of WW II veterans, and they never wanted their children to experience large scale conflict.
Today every generation is more depressed than the last. They dont have a positive worldview. If anything America has developed an isolasionist worldview from fighting in ME so much.
Being an imperial power has never sat well with the US. Maintaining over 700 overseas military bases is horribly expensive.
@@sdrc92126 IF Germany and Japan tried and failed to conquer the world why do you think America could, and why should it try? Madness.
I think his prediction on China so far has been correct.
I certainly enjoy listening to his lectures, but I am totally baffled by the choice of graphics for this one. His comments on demography are unmatched by anyone else. I’ll keep listening with a bit of jaundice in my eye.
I’m just glad Cherokee is a car now❤
But only after Pontiac was dissolved 😫
The boy who cried wolf. When you keep saying the world is about to imminently collapse, people will start to tune you out, even if eventually it turns out to happen.
Can you be more specific?
@@JohnDorian-j7xhe was wrong about Trump, and he is here to gloat
@@SlugSage What was he wrong about Trump for? And what specifically is he here to "gloat" over?
@@JohnDorian-j7x He thought Trump would lose in a landslide, MAGA is here to rub it in.
Take the cases of the Amerindian nations: those we quite happily invaded and annexed; to the point that today you cannot find on a map of these United States the borders of their reservations; so yeah, it really is that we simply do not and really never did want to annex anybody else's land; we had more than the capacity to annex at least half of Europe post WW2: their resources and capacity for war was in *shambles*, we could've just marched right on in and annexed all the areas we wanted; we simply did NOT WANT TO AT ALL... and the areas we've conqurered, we have by far been the most merciful conquerors in world history- and then some!
In all Zeihan’s analyses you should notice a common angle , namely demographic.
All point to a decline population would equate to a decline in national wealth.
No regards to advances of science.
The world is falling apart but the man-bun is eternal. Bearded ladies unite.
These sorts of analysts can never accurately predict the future because it is an attempt to predict people.
Particularly trying to predict the decisions people will make.
Interesting video but the visuals were not very related to the audio content. This video would be better with a still photo and not irrelevant pictures of 18th century American history.
Must be ai, no human would be that stupid.
@@SimpleHormones very distracting
Not sure why Elizabeth the 1st was pictured .As great as she was.
Well,though predictive analysis remarks are tricky,Peter provides some of the more palatable experiences,which translate to some interesting thought processes.I like him enough to not need every prediction to be absolute(after all that is the futures job!)but to keep reminding us of so many of the ramifications and potential outcomes 😊
Not very related???? Understatement, my man!🤣
Two suggestions:
1. Don't use random graphics to keep people from getting bored. Use something related to the words being spoken.
2. Don't rely on speech-to-text because it has an error rate high enough to be a put-off. Have human editors clean it up. Really, find grad students or somebody accustomed to working for slave wages. Give them screen credits, but spare your viewers the erroneous captions.
I don’t understand why people like Zeihan see a socialist world government as the only solution, particularly when the U.S. exceeds that sad model every day.
HE NEVER SAID THAT! Stop trying to scare everybody with your right wing scare tactics! It only works on right wing chicken people like yourself not on left-wing people smart enough to handle change!
Communism is a religion (utopia), socialism is the economics tool of destruction to normalize human existence into this new reality. In reality, it's just another monarchy where the ruing class owns all of the world's resources and the serfs are happy just enough to reproduce at the rate required to keep the elite machine running.
I treat his stuff like a history lesson. His forecasts, Trump aside😅, are usually long-term which means he has time to 'adjust' them.....
And regarding our conquests of the areas of North America we have as part of our country: we *still* aren't done metabolizing them- and won't be for quite some time; we simply have to drastically increase our population, simple as that.
Good lord... looking at comments, yes the cultists are out. Why is there so much bitterness coming from people who should be happy? Do you guys know how to be happy? Breath it in, and take a moment of contentment and satisfaction. You will get everything you asked for and deserve.
Ahahahaha!
We are very happy laughing at you fools being wrong once again.
We have been unburdened by what has been, the consequences of your stupidity.
I like the "Deserve" part.
Ahahaha!
You certainly got everything you deserved from Sleepy Joe. We will get wealth, peace and freedom. As you seethe and delete comments.😂😂🤣🤣
@boufns8 oh man what an epic burn. You really put me in my place by insulting a politician that I view as a public servant, not a godlike leader. Peace and prosperity... hope will carry you through.
@@francisrauth9201 No I insulted you, you got what you deserved from Joe and it's funny how petty you are. You just can't help projecting you horrible choices on smarter people. So petty, so pathetic, such a loser.😂😂
Whats with the slides? At 21:47 He's talking about the Japanese Navy and we're looking at visuals of Lewis and Clark Expedition? Are these randomised or what?
He said bitcoin was going to zero... I'm so embarrassed for him... like when you see a guy get kicked in the nuts embarrassed
Peter also said Bitcoin was going to Zero in 2019,then again in 2020,2021,2022,2023 and now he has gone silent on Bitcoin.😂😂
Your world is falling apart…🤠🤘🏼
Good Lord,you seem like a very bright and affable man but I’m not too sure about your predictions
What top 3-5 predictions of his don't agree with?
This is not a meltdown but di-globalization. Peter’s latest book
Peter is incorrect. The royal navy survived the war especially when you consider the French navy was made subordinate to the Royal Navy.
Royal Navy survive the WW2 but the British Empire was exhausted.
The Canadian and Australian Navies were also fairly large and survived the War. The Canadian Navy was the 3rd largest in the world. The Commonwealth at this point was exhausted.
I've known for forty years government couldn't just spend over tax income forever. The crisis that ensues afterwards isn't so easy to predict. Job losses and quickly rising crime rates are a certainty. Business collapses are a given. Unpaid rents should be expected. Store closings due to theft will be widespread. Gun battles as people try to protect their property will ensue. Smart money will leave for more peaceful shores. Wars may erupt, and supply chains will be disturbed. Government intervention to stabilize food distribution and supply will be needed. Bullit proof vests and kevlar head protection will be advised. Power supplies may often be disrupted. No one can have enough supplies for years. Gardens will be raided..Honest work, hard to find. Money will be short, prices high!
He predicts the direction of various processes. It is impossible to give times when it will happen. The fall of the Berlin Wall is an example. No one predicted that the USA would become a fascist state in 2025 either.
Zeihan said Trump is beaten badly. Hope hes more accurate on foreign policy.
The key is always populations though- Europe and America has stopped having kids. The Middle East is exploding with population and has resources in Russia and China. People need to have kids.
People only have children if they have at least a good prospect of affording them. They need decent publicly funded education, healthcare, housing, well paid occupations, infrastructure and dignified retirement. The corporate dominated democratic world economy does not share wealth. Autocracies don't have the same contraints and across the world are combining to overthrow the global economic, military and political order. If they succeed they will fight over the spoils.
People only have children if they have at least a good prospect of affording them. They need decent publicly funded education, healthcare, housing, well paid occupations, infrastructure and dignified retirement. The corporate dominated democratic world economy does not share wealth. Autocracies don't have the same contraints and across the world are combining to overthrow the global economic, military and political order. If they succeed they will fight over the spoils.
People only have children if they have at least a good prospect of affording them. They need decent publicly funded education, healthcare, housing, well paid occupations, infrastructure and dignified retirement. The corporate dominated democratic world economy does not share wealth. Autocracies don't have the same contraints and across the world are combining to overthrow the global economic, military and political order. If they succeed they will fight over the spoils.
Speech gives me Carl Sagan vibes
Thanks!
The world will keep on turning. It's rather this guy which is falling apart.
Did you really just read the title, leave a comment and bolt?
I find that Zeihan is invariably incorrect.
Get it right , not the people , but goverment.
I’m confused. How do the graphics displayed sync with the narration?
maybe prepare more slides about the times your talking about 🙃
You want a film sample of the end of the Cold War? Take "Star Trek VI: the Undiscovered Country" and that's almost exactly; event-for-event, an alogory for the collapse of the Eastern Bloc; Praxis there stands in for Chernobyl/Prepyin village and nuclear power base; "Gorkon" there is a stand-in for Gorbachev almost *exactly*, now some events changed, but the general event sequence is way too close too be discounted.
Now regarding Breton Woods alliance; of course its members would be testing their militaries among eachother; if peace is the career of the soldiers; as they profess: they train for war so that they can be *able* to ensure peace when the time comes, or they're really scammed in their career applications!
OK Peter. I am waiting for you to explain how you could be so wrong about Trump.
I remember Obama once saying "never underestimate Peter Zeihan's ability to f-up!!"
Of course he said never underestimate Biden's ability to f up.
@@postscript5549of course
20 million stayed home and didn't vote
21:45
The best image of "fly-over" country.
Election forecasting in general is a fools errand with almost no up-side. Of all people PZ should know that; it damaged his creds big-time.
All for clicks, just like his other anti-Trump face diarrhea.
Graying Man-buns....the hip new/old face of the CIA....include Nate Hagen in this ilk...😊
No, we carried out that war *right*; we really relied upon proxies to wage the war; and oddly enough, right from the Soviet invasion of Greece at the end of WW2; it was "Koba" who'd given us that gameplan; he sent in almost entirely Bulgarians and Yugoslavians who he'd brainwashed to do his dirty-work for him; nobody went *out* of the Eastern Bloc in those days but with the missions sent *by* their central administration, not without SERIOUS repurcussions for those they left behind (universally: murder in the gulags).
That meant that all these "refugees" that "arrived" in Greece back then were really universally *sent there* by STAVKA to do the damage as a preliminary assault; plus they were *armed* and how would they obtain them given the overt *paranoia* of the governments there? Nothing else makes sense.
Given that, and our nuclear arsonel; it only makes sense that we'd rely on proxies to do the fighting against them- plus if they commit their own best troops: you get a first-rate lesson in their equipment, gear, and training: thus to commit your own troops is really to play into an intelligence trap, not that we didn't: the Korean War is one example where STAVKA got really good readouts of our gear and training mechanisms by fighting *indirectly* and watching their vassals do the damage.
Now we didn't lack the capacity; but we have never had the *will* to try to do that: take Iraq, we could've obtained it all; but what happened? As soon as we were able: we bugged out and handed it back to the Iraqis to govern their own country: it is not that we're bad at governing; we're really quite good at it- it is that we really have a *cultural distaste* for it that we must never throw out- we as a people really do believe in free will as a concept; not being someone's overlord! The latter really does reek to us as the hyper-abusive nature of Hell's culture; something we really do NOT want to partake in!
And took all of Britains gold reserves.
...and the British Empire ripped off every other country
So how was a relatively developing country like Great Britain manage to govern a quarter of the world's population and land area? And we had already forced every other developing country to give up slavery in UK.
Truth is the U.S. had no desire to build an empire. It's people and most politicians at that time were tired of war and only wanted to get back to normal.
August 1945.
The U.S. had over 13 million soldiers in uniform.(the largest army in world history)A combined Navy near 9,000 vessels with over 120 aircraft carriers.
The only nuclear power and an assembly line rolling out nukes every week. And a number of allies that would willingly cooperate.
No occupation would he required. Only small military detachment for monitoring.
No one could develop their own nukes without notice.
We hear you want to develop nukes
Let us drop a few off to you😱💥💥
ruZZia was an economic disaster highly dependent on the U.S.. and the communist Chinese were all grouped together in a small region. The U.S. could have destroyed Mao and his small group of minions in a couple months primarily being a bombing campaign. The National Chinese could have handled everything else once they reorganized.👈 They were initially in disarray being scattered fighting the Japanese. The U.S. would have bought them time to organize with a bombing campaign.
🎯
yeah, well, we'll just have to see
Confusing visuals
I find Zeihan to be earnest, knowledgeable and intelligent, but somehow usually somewhat off the mark in his conclusions. There seems to be something off in his synthesis process.
If you didn't know Peter Zeihan, if I just showed him to you and asked "what do you think of this sketch comedy act making fun of those geo-political talking heads online?" Do you think you would know it wasn't sketch comedy? Do you think the man-bun might convince it was satire? How about the grandiose overconfidence?
Wow, you're so smart and funny too
Cut your Man Bun Peter.😂😂😂
I must say, Mr Zeihan, is a bit of a charlatan.
He does understand the world around us quite well, and even history, but in my opinion interprets world events in a way to entertain mostly his audience, and likes to sell world ending tunes to the rest of us.
World changing. It's his job to "predict" and anyone who predicts is going to get things wrong. Also it is his job to sell entertaining and generalist geopolitics to large audiences and private clients. He has a style like anyone on here these days. Make money doing what ya love.
I love Peter, the manure spreader from Iowa. Never let the fact stop you ❤. It’s amazing how high he can stack that crap, one piece of misinformation on another, all in an industrial paradigm. The greatest showman on any sewer circuit.
That is very good. Amazing even. In essence you have captured much of what James Madison wrote about. He reasoned that America would NOT be able to stomach the parasitic nature of the industrial countries of Europe. He knew it would be in our best interests to promote growth abroad and encouraging world stability and peer trading. Good to see the right ideas being upgraded. The amazing wonder of the miracles that flowed from our Founding Fathers.
I would just like to say Peter that your prediction that Trump would be defeated was utterly and completely wrong. he won in every single swing state
Hes a demographics guy, and he said that almost a year ago. In that discussion he's said Trump has brought in the Union voters to the Republicans while the Business class voters have shifted toward Democrats. Which is true and still an odd dynamic. It's part of his "every 40 years political cycle" comments, which are pretty accurate. He said Biden would defeat Trump, unless something happens to Biden, then it's anyone's guess. It's hard to predict that democrats would field an enfeebled man in clear mental decline, replace with their most unpopular politician from the previous cycle, and then decline to campaign in earnest. My opinion, he failed to capture the importance of inflation on the election.
The point is, predictions are only good until the scenario changes.
Anyone who pronounces "nuclear" as "nuke-u-lar", I immediately doubt the rest of what they're saying.
'Mr Doom & Gloom' now that his prediction.. KAMALA(😵).. choked..
The American people choked
Your replay of Z's audio has some inappropriate visuals.
What is the point of the narration having nothing to do with the historical US illustrations?
Peter enjoyed your speak. worker bots i suspect are on their way to make up for reduced production. money inputs to sustain large population Social Security and Retiree income/medical needs I dont know.
Terrible video editing. AI job?
Easy fix. Listen to it. Don't look at it
Smart enough to sound confident in his oration so poorly educated people listen with ooos and ahhhs, but the wise see he mixes facts with his version of "the way it should be" according to him, but not the way that it is.
Peter the reason you got the POTUS election wrong . Is in my opinion was due to a critical thinking bias, specifically as you are an independent you inflated their importance. Secondly numbers or the past does not necessarily predict the future, especially the voting populace. Just my opinion.
American politics only has one constant. It is chaos in every election.
He didn't get it wrong. He said if Biden drops out, all bets are off.
Peter told everyone that Trump would lose. Peter doesn't know sh*t.
I think he only claims to be an Independent. I've heard a lot of woke spill out of him. And bias against Conservatives as well.
@tomluft863 and he shit all over biden after the debate. Peter Zeihan doesn't even have any faith in the green revolution or Electric Vehicles.
Is it me or do the pictures not match the content?
Kodokushi - the lonely death 💀
Stand in front of????? It was the American soldier who stood in front not the allies.
Fantastic info
Unrelated video images don’t Mach the narrative
Zeihan's analysis of the post-war order checks out--but it's textbook stuff that any analyst could tell you. Doesn't take a genius to know this stuff. Whereas, the jury is still out regarding his predictions. So, I think where Zeihan differs from other analysts is he's willing to make alarmist predictions and then throw out highly specific dates in order to drive traffic to his social medias. In this respect, he's a charlatan. That doesn't mean his analyses are off point, per se. Though, you should take his predictions with a grain of salt. Especially the more alarmist ones.
It's maybe more useful to look at what he's saying as identifying stress points and potential risks in the system--as well as opportunities--that governments and business leaders should take into account when formulating policy. It's just, he's not a prophet, even though he implicitly presents himself as that.
One thing I do believe in is what you might call the law of gravity. Not gravity in a literal sense. I mean it figuratively.
Like, a few savvy Wall Street analysts prior to the sub-prime mortgage crisis ran the numbers and knew without a doubt that the market was trending toward a major collapse. They just couldn't predict when exactly. They only had a ballpark. That's gravity. The outcome in a general sense was inevitable. But the specifics of the outcome were unclear. Likewise, we also know that if your country has favourable geography and lies in a favourable climate zone, the outcome is your country is going to be rich. Whereas if your country is in a geographically unfavourable region, the outcome is you're going to be poor. But the specifics aren't clear and there's also mitigating variables that can lead to outlier results. There's lots of things that fall under this heading from macroeconomic and campaign analysis to just understanding demographic trends. It's gravity in the sense that, all else being equal, we kind of know where things are going without some intervening factor.
The issue with Zeihan is he makes a lot of highly specific predictions on the basis of highly generic, and comparatively well understood, circumstances, while presenting it in an "I'm the only one who sees this coming!" fashion. He acts cocksure that he's right and yet most of his predictions have yet to materialize. Though, they may yet, given enough time.
That being said, it's fair to point out that the previous world order does appear to be in the process of unraveling and we're about to transition into a major new paradigm. But we can't predict where things will inevitably end up because reality isn't deterministic and unexpected variables can always come out of left field that reshape the entire equation.
Of course, all else being equal, a broken clock is right at least twice in a day. If I told you that I knew with 100% certainty your death is coming, I'd be right. But if I told you that your death is coming in the next 5 minutes, I would probably only have .0005% odds of being right. On the other hand, if I made a bet that most Americans aged 40 or over would be dead within the next 20-40 years, I'd be absolutely correct. Because that's gravity.
Breton woods ended 1971, not 1991.
While Peter dances…
This is the last time I listen to this guy
The holes in his geopolitical rhetoric are too numerous to even warrant further comment
May I suggest -- Mearsheimer, Jeffery Sachs, the Duran, Glen Diesen
Bye bye
Why are you talking about 1989 and showing pics from the 1700s
Rome has never been a world dominating power if anything the British were closest to it!
Peter is a never a trumper. He doesn't see how bad the US is under democrats.
Very interesting
You forgot Latin America, who, of course, got well screwed