Could Bitcoin’s Price Reach $1,000,000? With Balaji Srinivasan and Cathie Wood
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 13 ต.ค. 2024
- On March 17, 2023, Balaji Srinivasan wrote a tweet thread that started with a simple, shocking bet that the price of one Bitcoin would reach $1,000,000 in the next 90 days. Balaji is an American entrepreneur and investor. He was the co-founder of Counsyl, the former Chief Technology Officer of Coinbase, and former general partner at the venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz. ARK CEO and CIO Cathie Wood agrees that the price of a Bitcoin could reach $1M, but ARK’s prediction on when this might happen is very different. In today’s episode, Cathie and Balaji discuss their current and future outlook on the United States and global economies, the cryptocurrency ecosystem and their reaction to the recent volatility surrounding the regional banking crisis.
Key Points From This Episode:
An introduction to Balaji and his prediction that Bitcoin could reach $1M in the next 90 days
Cathie sets up her initial argument that we are in a deflationary environment
What we can learn from Argentina; when it was printing money while simultaneously raising interest rate
Balaji argues that there are only three true currency pairs in the world today
Balaji’s belief that there is a desire to exit the American financial system and that the financial system itself is inherently hard to predict
Cathie shares her thesis that that the velocity of money is starting to flatten
The potential for a “hard landing” in the economy
How the recent regional banking crisis effects Cathie and Balaji’s predictions on inflation
Balaji compares the Federal Reserve (Fed) Funds rate to Bitcoin’s issuance schedule
How the 1980s compare to today in terms of inflation and interest rates
Cathie provides a brief history on the guiding force behind Fed policy
What could potentially happen to the use cases of Bitcoin should it rapidly increase in value
Balaji’s belief that the world is running backwards in time but that the outcome will be different
Why consumers have started to move money away from banks and instead have focused their attention on trying to earn yield on their money
Why today’s economic events could be considered black swan events
Balaji states that we may not have a widespread bank crisis, but instead we could specifically have a central bank crisis
The potential that the Fed could be looking at the wrong indicators
How the very existence of Bitcoin might defeat Keynsian economists theories at their core
Why deflation might be a good thing for Blockchain technology
Why Balaji believes states should continue to support cryptocurrencies
"Fiat currency", as referred to in this podcast, means traditional, government-issued currency, such as the US dollar.
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22:56 "Hard to do ethically?" That's why they needed Bill Gates' Event 201 and the Plandemic, and now the FED is trying to finish their botched plandemic by raising interest rates in a recession. Jamie Dimon wants the government to start stealing peoples' house, so's that Larry Finks' wet dream of an ESG economy based on a fake globe earth can come true...
Of course Bitcoin could reach a mil. It could go bust just as easily. Hearing your logic, do you have a gambling problem?
Balaji is sharp, informed, and charismatic. Please have him back. 👍
Cathy, I must say that you are very gifted at interviewing and this format is working really well. I love how humble and how open you are to diverging points of view - no ego. It's hard, but you absolutely excel at it. Also, this brings fresh new insights, and absolutely adds value to the community. Thank you.
Cathie has set the bar in the financial markets these past 10 years not only for her competence and insight into disruptive technologies, but for her very respectful, elegant, transparent, and thoroughly informed conversations with market players, journalists, etc. I admire her greatly.
Are you serious? This was barely an interview, host constantly interrupting and talking for a long time. The was no need for a guest in this interview if you wanted to just say your position. Otherwise, stop talking about your views and get more from the guest.
@@monicalatvenas1348 I also like to get paid to make general positive statements
@@mikevidzdev exactly, she did not engage and just continued to parrot the Keynesian as she herself is one and her portfolio depends on the cantillon effect
This was epic! Great job hosting Kathy! 🖤🖤🖤👏👏👏👏
Thank you Cathie Wood and Balaji, this was very informative. Thank you for making your conversation available to all!
Hello
Balaji has some amazing points especially at the closing
I appreciate you taking the time to address the audience and educate us on the more complex topics.
Yes ty Cathie
I have been looking for a deeper discussion of where we are economically, and I found it here. EXCELLENT VIDEO.
Balaji for treasury secretary!!! We need someone like him to change the crap we have in place.
@ev.h.3455he sounds like he lost money in pump and dump scheme
Woow a mind blowing discussion and points of views ... thoroughly enjoyed this, thank you Cathy and Balaji 💯🤟
The ending conversation here is great. People in their day to day can't see what's happening to the forest they live in. It is fascinating and informative. Thank you.
Very informative and interesting discussion. Cathy and Balaji are both super smart individuals. Love the way Cathy breaks down technical issues to help less knowledgeable people like me understand. Great job 👏
This was so great, thank you both so much.
As an upcoming Bitcoin trader I totally understand the gravity of the knowledge you are trying to pass across, thanks for the info
This was fantastic. Thank you both!
Bitcoin to $1,000,000 ($20T network value) depends on:
- Adoption as a medium of exchange and global reserve currency
- USD Valuation collapse
Both are plausible, but I think for USD valuation to drop sufficiently and be displaced as reserve currency will take decades, not years.
My expectation is a $2T-$4T network value (BTC $100k-$200k) on exit from the 2024 halvening (end of 2025)
I think at $100k per BTC the volatility should be very low
Unfortunately, this scenario will not happen. Bitcoin already had its day
@@garfieldbennett4140 sorry but wrong. Hasn't took off yet
@@garfieldbennett4140 People have been saying that for over a decade. Bitcoin has been declared dead 400+ times by mainstream media. It's still here and still strong.
Also, how could the profit take-out via scalping be overcomed?
"And I worry about GDP and economic activity" "right, so have you ever seen a flock of pidgeons" 😂😂😂 love the way balaji explains stuff
Pidgeon ?
To my understanding, this exemplifies the significance of acquiring sound financial counsel prior to venturing into the market.
Over the past decade, Cathie has established a new standard in the financial industry. Her expertise in disruptive technologies is matched by her respectful, elegant, and transparent communication with market players, journalists, and others. I hold her in high esteem and deeply admire her contributions.
Hey Balaji & Cathie great informative video on the world, banks & Bitcoin & also Yassine thanks for putting this video into the light for me & the people.
V1 - Gold Standards - Decentralised, Trustworthy but not scalable
V2 - Fiat - Centralised but scalable
V3 - Bitcoin - Decentralised, Trustworthy, Very planned scaling for the digital world
Every human should read that twice
How is gold decentralised?
@@Sentinel-911 Gov. cannot double the amount of gold in the world.
Price rule comes from market cap size.
Larger market cap will have more stable price.
Excellent!! Wonderful to hear common sense.
Thx much for this podcast. Very very informative information from Balaji. Woods had a tone of voice feeling like imposing her point of view or emotionally defending her position. Balaji had more one of presenting facts. 🙏🏻
God bless you Kathy.. making ordinary people understand changing economic trends and their reasoning..
Wow. Great episode. Appreciate you both!
good discussion, i appreciate yall making this podcast
This was great information and an interesting dialogue. Thank you
40:05. The answer to that question is- there is no example in all of world history of a society that broke down because of too much savings. (As Peter Schiff says)
What an amazing conversation. Brilliant dialogue some was over my head but the general direction makes total sense. Wish our politics was on the same level we would have a more stable respectful and happier country.
what an analogy!!! "Steering a car by mail" good god?!!
Excellent video from both . Awesome and love u TWO
Hi Cathie. Hope you invited Balaji to talk at Miami Bitcoin Conference in May
WOW IM STOKED FOR THIS ONE!!!!!! AMAZING!!
What a fantastic video the most interesting and informative thank u
Thank you as usual sir. That monthly chart pattern is eye opening, interesting times ahead.
Great conversation Cathie
I have been following your channel for a long time, dear. Your video is great
What I would like for Balaji to explain is why Bitcoin and not Ethereum or another crypto? And if what he forecasts happens I think the last thing people would care about is if they have Bitcoin since they would probably pray for food and shelter. Bitcoin is super slow and expensive to transact in, how would one actually use it?
Because Bitcoin's PoW binds it to the laws of physics -requires real world energy expenditure to mine new units, which make it a commodity like gold. Most other cryptos are actually securities.
As for speed, you won't buy coffee on the base layer, you'd use a layer 2 network like Lightning which is instant. Base layer settlement would be reserved for large transactions like buying a house or settling trade between central banks.
Because bitcoin maxis have tunnel vision. Most people can't use it for normal transactions.
Nice reply terry. Bitcoin turned out to be more of a store of value. Eth is for payment to do things on it or layer 2s. Altcouns haven't matured enough yet to know how it will play out
@@GrindThisGame 😂💯
Would the U.S. government declare something a commodity if they didn't even know who created it? Absolutely not. Something is fishy with Bitcoin. I think the U.S. government knows exactly who created it.
Cathie’s laugh at end is priceless!
a considerable amount of btc is owned by one individual/entity ie. saylor. how do you feel about that?
I love Bitcoin and Cathie. But no way. It will never happen. Especially without mass adoption and super convenient simple and easy use cases.
great interview. thanks for sharing
Thank you. Very informative 👏
I am pro-bitcoin, but, $1 million in less than 90 days now just seems too unlikely. His basis is basically that enough people will leave the financial system and move to bitcoin. And as much as us bitcoiners believe that's the right thing to do, I don't see it happening in
Cathie is my homegirl. I love listening to her takes on investing and economics.
If one is a growth stock fund mgr, they see rates as being too high, they see crashing. If one is working class, they see severe inflation, housing that is insanely high priced relative to incomes, and a govt spending like drunken sailors. The Fed has indeed made mistakes... so has Cathie. To harp on about deflation is as misguided as the Fed saying inflation is transitory and not to worry back a couple yrs ago. If a 4% 10yr is cratering a fund, or a business, or an economy... is the 4% rate the problem? Or is it maybe govt spending and excessive debt? BTW, market PE is around 20x mult... so where is the market crash? PS. Love Cathie, made $ investing in ARKK in the past... just keeping it real here.
I can listen to Cathie’s explanations all day
Honestly, yes. The world Bitcoin reserve wars is about to begin... They are all out of tricks
Did Balaji answer the question Cathy asked at 40:01 about why would anyone sell/trade their bitcoin if it's price is only going to go up?
Great podcast!!
What we need is for you to do his every week. Please 🙏 and Thank You 🙏
The Feds stated goal and actual goal are not the same.
FINALY someone talks about the total housing units under construction issue (1.7M)! the builders are stalling completion in hopes to get aid by the gov like in the 70's or to keep prices inflated so they don't get swamped...
I straight up love Balaji.
Do you mind turning on the closed captions please?
I have to sign a mortgage soon shall I go for fixed rate or variable?
I would go with fixed so you know. If your payment balloons can you handle it?
At 23:20 mark, was Balaji trying to lead up to that much of "theories" that Mz.Wood is relying on may not be applicable here?
The graph at 23:43 is a very clear illustration of the Cantillon effect.
loved the discussion, but Im wondering where the ivory tower is picking up on these things and start to re-think there economy models. Is there any indication that we might see leading economists discussing the actual situation and maybe proposing different models for the future that should be discussed in the scientific world as well. Is there only Art?
This is SO GOOD. I work in finance and something I have thought and said is that assets that cash flow are better stores of value and are being enhanced by this policy driven by Congress and the Fed. Quality companies that grow revenues and have free cash flow. Any thoughts stocks and other stores of value like BTC?
Based on Balaji thesis of hyperinflation leading to btc spiking to a million, I like to ask how is this beneficial to btc and crypto in general. If the USD gets demolished, when one cónvert back to fiat, the value of a million dollars worth of btc will still be worth its value in fiat. For example, under hyperinflation, if a loaf of bread costs 1 million dollars, it will still be the same for btc, with a value of 1 million dollars worth of btc to buy that same loaf. So, this is totally not beneficial to btc and crypto in a hyperinflation economic situation.
Well she just cut Balaji off when he was in the middle of making an amazing point about the similarity between keynesians and communism and the magical equations
Timestamps
Speaking of investments: time.
If Bitcoin (disclosure, I own a toenails worth of Bitcoin) reaches $1m in 90 days I will buy a hat and eat it.
I'll eat my shoe with you. Let's meet up in Hawaii for our lunch.
can it be a chocolate hat?
You don't have to learn how to cook that. 90 days , no way. 9 years give or take maybe, probably?
Not that hat
Balaji may have the date incorrect. But he is 1000% on point on all the data points. He has summarized the path and direction of BTC and the US dollar. There are already many US states that are in support of BTC and against USDC. This will make more and more Americans and other aware of the true nature of CBDC’s. It is a surveillance coin. That is tyrant not freedom. TG the USA is a republic. Individual states can self govern. I’m not American and I love it. Not like here in Canada. This government froze all the accounts of the trucker freedom convoy and the people who donated to the cause of freedom. BTC IS FREESOM!
Cathy’s concern of ppl hoarding BTC was concerning to me too. That’s until I realized that there will always be ppl willing to transact in BTC, and there will be more zeros added to each BTC, if needed.
Great job guys for breaking it down!
I was there at the Northridge earthquake too.
Answer. No. Bc gold isn’t actually worth anything except as a conductor. And “digital gold” isn’t worth anything at all. And on top of that bitcoin isn’t even digital gold.
You guys need to relax with these weird opinions.
How about before you even develop an opinion, you truly take the time and read the literature. Both technical and philosophical about the reason Bitcoin exists. Do you honestly think with your naive statement that people haven't asked these questions before? Do you really view yourself as that intelligent?
Balaji is great at presenting his ideas. Very engaging. I don't agree with his short-term thesis, I think he underestimates the power of the government to control the emotions of the masses.
Did Balaji actually answer what will happen if people started hoarding bitcoin? I think he beat around the bush without answering it.
Saifedean does.
Essentially people don't live forever and people will make a decision to spend today because they want a product or service now rather than wait for more in the future.
People hoard property and other asset classes already
His answer that Bitcoin will be the base pair for everything.
so instead of APPL/USD you'll have APPL/BTC.
All oil trade denominated in BTC, all stocks, real estate, etc.
Last step would be the grocery store, but the last mile is not that necessary.
Bitcoin is just money. It is also a decentralized protocol that is used for many other things.
Not only is Cathy a fantastic interviewer, but this might be the most balanced I’ve ever heard Balaji wrt talking time lmao
20 min into the video and Balaji got only 2 min to talk… Lets see the rest :)
Nice information Balaji srinivasan
Recently certain countries been trying to distance from dollar,some have suggested that the Fed may use interest rate hikes to force other countries to stay tied to the US dollar, rather than seeking alternative currencies or means of exchange. By raising interest rates, the argument goes, the Fed could make it more costly for other countries to borrow in other currencies, thereby making it more attractive for them to continue using the US dollar as their primary currency
The Feds job is to make policy and dictate and not follow market signals.
Market participants follow signals 😊
HI THERE FRENS.....SEND LOVE!!!🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰-from athens greece!!!
What Cathie is missing is that it is not that low velocity of money is driving low rates - it is the other way around. The only way to drive a longterm productivity growth is to reset the system, break apart big banks, burn the financilised economy & focus on productive investment.
And have pigs fly and the moon be made of cheese. Should work...real soon.
Im always wondering why we discuss mainly US only cases and situations. Isnt it too limited?
He's just selling snake oil. US is easy to target.
Great to hear Balaji too
Brilliant.
Great conversation, I heard a lot of good points and I agree the heckle island bosses didn't count on crypto
Excellent guest, very smart.
Market Capitalization: For Bitcoin to reach $1 million by 2030, it would require a total market capitalization of around $21 trillion, which is more than the current GDP of the United States. This seems highly unlikely given that the current market capitalization of Bitcoin is around 500 million
Bitcoin GDP= 500 billion*
Exactly! Why people can't understand basic math is beyond me.
500 billion
500 billion
Not in the face of low liquidity. This is not how markets work. If people run out to buy something and the people willing to sell all set the price at $1 million. The price is $1 million. It doesn't take X amount if cash coming in to raise the price Y amount.
Bitcoin now has a decay half-life of 17 months and a standard deviation of 3.81 in my opinion it is still good for trading but not for investment 😊
What does that even mean. What about a fixed supply and eventually hard to say how long demand?
I wish Cathy would let Balaji finish his thoughts. Regardless love u Cathy.
If you let Balaji go it ends up being 7 hours 😂
Balaji is a novice
Is this a church? It does not have to be the dogmatic fawning of your hero.
37:30 Issuance schedule... mmm in the vault like Gold a store of assets
OMG two cerebral heavyweights. LOVE THIS ONE!
This Monetary policy is based on USD reserve currency and petro-dollar status. This will change with de-dollarization and bilateral trading in their own currencies.
TRUTH ALONE TRIUMPH @ BITCOIN
I have a friend who called me and said that BAC (Bank of America) called her and said they closed her account, but she is able to retrieve her funds. I think they are going next, I don't know...
Fantastic viewing....
I'm 32. Kathy is in her 60's. This woman looks younger than I do.
😂😂😂😂
Slow down on the weed and drugs?????
16:58 LOL Cathie-splained
Can anyone get message to optimal progressive learning to the feds.. ie like employee training type approach? A catalyst for the growth of all humanity?
I don't know who could possibly understand this talk, except financial experts that have spent their lives studying it. My take-a-way is just the simplistic idea that the fed is crashing the banking system by raising rates to high. Why that hurts the banks, and the 100 tangents explored in this talk, escapes me, and probably 99% of viewers here.
1 BTC = $1,000,000, 1 coffee = $80.
With just a 15% salary increase, you'll finally be able to afford that.
Yuan is pegged to the dollar, how is that a separate regime?
It is not. It's based on being the world's factory and has most of the world's Rare Earth Metal
Good information
Good info