Statistically speaking, 80% of statistics are wrong. The remaining 30% of statistics are perfectly correct every time, although 90% of statistics are dubious or shoddy at best.
@@pr0xZen wrong.. your poll is as good as how it was designed to sample and what error you expect.. no poll is full proof . Ie.factory quality control is a poll . Impossible to qc everything.. but u can say.. based on whatever error I want I need to randomly sample z number of items before I can validate if I truly only have less than a percentage of faulty items. Things like that work. Human polls about opinion are totally different matter .. theres usually too many things to account for.
@@pr0xZen also. I should note.. you go to vegas and u see the odds at the craps or blackjack table.. which is statistics.. I don't think 80% of the time those statistics for the odds are wrong..
@@akilon996 uhh no that's not what the purpose of polls is; polls are supposed to tell you roughly what percentage of the vote each candidate is supposed to get. If you predict a candidate is going to get 60% of the vote and they win by only getting 50.1% then the poll is still inaccurate
@@WOODSLD80 Its democracy between each state. The electoral college keeps democracy and is based on what the people in each state vote. So it stills matters, even if the popular vote goes against it.
Panzer video.parler.com/7V/Zq/7VZqjiROZzmb.mp4 💥💥💥Hunter Biden's call recording! It proves that Joe Biden fully knew and participated in Hunter's series of collusion with the CCP.
@Aditya Ingole isn’t that what u guys said during the midterms? And it was more like a blue puddle as both houses of Congress just traded hands. Go count trump to Biden sitns
@Aditya Ingole which proves they're horrific because the United States isn't represented by three major cities despite the fact a large portion of people live there. The bottom line is that's not how you win an election you have to hit individual states. The strategy of just getting the most votes is about something a third grader would do
@@beardedrogue4282 I don't see it happening either. I just think it's going to be closer than in the past years because so many more people are voting.
@Marie Marie do you reallt think you can blame one president for a worldwide virus? Trump can’t even do much about the virus; the governors are the ones who hold the real power. Even if he messed up on the virus he is still a lot better than that dog faced pony soldier geriatric
@HorizonGaming791 Fauci has to also dance around with his words carefully, since Trump would just fire him if he directly called the guy the orange idiot that he is.
@@4nlimited3dition_4n3d You do know it was your leftist mayors and governors that killed thousands of elderly patients after sending covid patients into nursing homes. Trump let the states decide what was best for their state. I know you wish he would have become the dictator you people keep calling him and take over, but he let you destroy yourselves.
@@jordansims9162 I remember it was the Media hyping her chances up and not the actual poll. I remember Trump leading two Points a few weeks before the election. And I remember the Polls tightening a few days before the Election. I also remember the Republican October Surprise wherein Clinton was announced to be investigated by the FBI. And I also remember the Wikileaks release of the DNC Cheating. Are there any Scandals on Biden? The Hunter Scandal? Seems pretty benign to me, not as big as Killary's Corruption.
@@kerzariz8717 so they accurately, inaccurately predicted the election. Good on them. It seems the polls did what they do best. Guess. Pretty amazing prediction technology.
I'm Indian American voting for TRUMP ... Polls says Indian American r not voting for Rep. but it's wrong in this election more nd more Indian community and Black people r voting for Trump ..m
@@Castillobusy why I’m sorry I ain’t living another 4 years of this Biden 2020 he actually has a plan unlike Trump who all he talks about is hunter who is not running for president
@@josephsprecher9462 so you want a president in office that has a crackhead son. Who has been to rehab for his cocaine addiction. Who was kicked out of the navy due to testing positive for cocaine. If you have the right to vote for who you want but i would not vote for a man with a family like that. A man that would send all american jobs overseas. A man who cant decide whether he is going to ban fracking or not, who thinks he is entitled to the minority vote. Nah no thanks.
The answer is no. If you look at 2020 elections counts and drill down to each states, there is a definite and clear differences in votes from large city area and more rural area. If polls don’t mix up the population properly presenting the whole population, it will always result in skewed analysis
What an idiotic question. A poll is neither trustworthy nor untrustworthy. They are what they are. If people can't interpret them correctly then that's not the fault of the poll. If they're poorly designed then that's the fault of the pollster. If they are "wrong" (which is to say that they predict one thing and something else happens) then that goes back to people not being able to actually understand or interpret them correctly. A poll has not only a margin of error but also typically has a statistical deviation of any predictions that come out of it. Sometimes when something is 75-25, the 25% chance comes through. In fact, it comes through about 1/4 of the time... that's an awful lot of the time.
2016 it happened, then in the UK it happened......and its the attitude of the left. The issue is how the media and people treat right-wing voters. The hassle, the comments, the abuse and attacks, it drives them underground or simply makes them afraid to say who they support, well, until voting day. That is why you have silent voters and you get the "how did that happen" on voting day. The same thing happened in the UK. Labour and left-wing going on at Brexit/Tory voters, abuse and everything you can name, so in the polls, they looked like they would maybe win. Even on the voting day, it looked like the polls had the win for Labour, but what happened was a Tory landslide, the biggest in 100 years. This was because people just kept hush about who they want to win, some even said Labour just so they could fit in and not get hassle, the same thing is going to happen Nov 3rd. A poll (lol) was done with Trump voters, they asked how many hide the fact that they support Trump, 13% said they did, now if that is national, that is a win right there. Also saw a story with a guy saying there were no political signs up in his neighbourhood (mixed race) then one morning he said "screw this" and put a Trump sign up, days later there were dozens of signs and flags lol they were all just hiding the fact.
The 2016 polls weren't very far off. The reason is, there were too many undecided voters in 2016. Many of them turned out to have voted for Trump, instead of Hillary. Hillary were leading in states like MI and PA, but her polls never exceeded 50% among all likely voters. This election is different. Biden has been leading consistently for many months now. His polls exceed 50% in both MI and PA. Plus there aren't many undecided voters in the polls this year. At the same time, the polls in 2020 show that Trump has never improved his base in many states cause his supporters remain more or less the same percentages in the polls of states like PA and MI, whereas Biden has picked up a few percents of the undecided voters in 2016. Trump beat Hillary by less than 1% in both PA and MI. And this year Biden is leading Trump by more than Hillary was. The difference is more than 2%. Biden will win by winning PA and MI even if he loses in both AZ and FL. So, it is highly likely that Biden will win this election.
Don't forget ... many, many people did not like Hillary.. and trump was new to the scene.Now we know how badly trump failed and it time to move on.. Whole different election this time.
A major problem with the whole discussion of statistics is the failure to distinguish between intentional and unintentional bias. I am not a statistician but have worked with quality engineers to endeavour to take unintentional bias out of sampling methods, especially those requiring human input. It is not easy. I can hear efforts in the video to reduce unintentional bias and one reference to what intentional bias may sound like. I did not hear, though I should probably listen again, any attempt to distinguish the two forms of bias. I feel that appreciating the difference is important for a consumer of polling data.
Bingo! Most of the polls over sample democratic leaning people and then point that it validates their opinion. It’s the bias of the media and universities towards the left. They hope is discourages the right to stay home as the end is a forgone conclusion
@@seestuff09 I was talking about the possible presence of unintentional bias even what is intended to be unbiased data. The subject you wish to discuss is a totally different matter. In order to start a discussion I would need to review your evidence of the oversampling you allude to. A properly-designed poll should avoid such oversampling. That is the whole purpose of designing a poll rather than just picking up a clipboard and hitting the street.
You don't have to look at the polls. Just look at the statistics of early voting. Texas has 80% of the vote that they got in 2016 already. Maine has 43% of the vote already. Other states are quickly shattering records.
Before a poll can be considered trustworthy, it should be shown that it is not substantially biased. In the case of presidential election polls, it should be shown that the political party distribution of those sampled (Republican/right-leaning independent, Democrat/left-leaning independent) does not deviate from that of the overall population (i.e. higher proportion of left-leaning people in the sample than that in the actual population).
They skipped everything people are interested in. We want to know how publishing a poll affects voting. If the poll, for example, says candidate A is winning by 9% in a State does that do more to get more votes out for candidate B or the candidate A? Does doubt in the accuracy of polls change that dynamic, and if so who does that favor? How are these patterns affected by larger or smaller gaps? How many polls are never reported to the public? Should they be required to? How can we stop insincere polling companies just designed to sway voters rather than really getting their untainted opinion? Can we accredit poling companies in some way, and make it fraud for these crooked companies to pretend they are accredited?
If a weatherman says there is a 93% chance of no rain tomorrow and it rains, that doesn't mean his prediction was wrong. There was also a 7% chance of it raining, and that's just what happened!
Please, people don't be like the media. If You want to be treat fairly then you should do the same to our president. Do your research before you judge him. Thank you Vietnamese for Trump
It really comes more down to a very abstract concept of probability that would have to factor in all variables (and such list would probably be very long), the polls can not only be inaccurate at times but made even more inaccurate when someone decides to mess with the representation of data to make it fit their picture more.
Trump has discussed rigging the Electoral College with republican controlled state legislatures. It’s up to the Supreme Court as to whether this will be allowed and he has rigged that also.
If the polls are accurate, Texas appears to be close. With the second most electoral votes, why isn't Biden spending a lot of time in Texas? Is he not doing as well there as the polls indicate?
In Australia we have Compulsory voting and we are not an Authoritarian state and 95% of all eligible voters vote. Making everyone vote has it's benefits as there is only one person to blame if the wrong people are in power - everyone. It sure beats the voter suppression you see in the US.
At 13:02 Patricia Moy incorrectly says that countries where you are forced to vote are totalitarian regimes. I can tell you right now, Australia's mandatory voting system with preferential (1-2-3-4 numbering) voting is much, much better and ultimately more democratic than the USA's.
The notion that places with very high voter turnout are less democratic seems unfounded to me. I might be wrong, but I think France and Australia have mandatory voting, and those places are hardly less democratic than the US.
We still need to address why one vote in a less populated state has more weight than one vote in a more populated state. If we only count the popular vote, Biden would surely win. And we wouldn’t need to conjecture.
I have spoken to 6 Americans friends and former colleagues about their voting intentions , all 6 are involved in business producing things or in businesses selling to people producing things in 2016 2 voted Trump 4 voted Hillary 2020 5 say they are voting Trump and one now working in the uk has made a decision not to vote. 3 say they hate Trump but they fear the impact of New Democratic policies on business more than they hate Trump. A common theme is the attitude and aggression of friends neighbours and family working in education, health .government , media etc etc etc who hate Trump. As one friend said ' just hold your nose and vote Trump' Rather than talk college educated and non , should you not be looking at business people who perceive that they could be badly affected by Democrat policies and white collar service industry people that concentrate on Trumps style. P.s. Business is the economic driver of America service industry rides on the back of , perhaps you should speak to business people and LISTEN. 😀
Please go out and vote for Trump! He needs your vote more than he ever did before. It really is one of the most important elections there ever were. Your voice matters! #Trump2020
I am Catholic apóstolic roman, but I wont vote for a False Prophet that silent 8 mistresses' abortions! I used to be Republican. Not anymore my friend!!
Polls are statistics. Polls are Mathematical random sampling that resemble the population parameter as accurately as possible. But not all random samples are accurate samples
@SEC Securities and Exchange Commission people will lie to a random pollster but how many people who won't vote for someone will pound that person's name into the land in front of there house?
It still surprises me to some extent, how so big a chuck of the population that is struggling the most, that have been going through the toughest of breaks for a long time - seem to so commonly cast their votes for candidates, platforms and agendas that are the _least_ likely to help them towards improving their conditions. This is certainly not a uniquely American phenomenon by any stretch of the imagination, nor something new or isolated to large national elections. But it does at times seem like it's turned up to 11 in the US. I do wonder why this is. Mostly the general phenomenon, but also why it often seems so intensified and widespread in America. Is it the hardening polarization? Is it ingrown or inherited partisanship? Tradition? Us vs them flock mentality? Are those people primarily voting with their "hearts" or "gut" rather than their analytical mind? Is it a "since life is hard for me, I'd rather it was equally hard for everyone else too" thing? Are their desperations and/or shortfalls in insight, making them easy(er) targets for manipulation, for (reasonably obvious) empty promises and honeyed lies - telling them what they want to hear so they'll let their critical thinking guards down?
@@themiddleclasstaxslave651 Why are you bringing socialism into this? And socialism isn't any more corruption than captialism is, any mix, and other models. All implementation can be exploited and corrupted. And no sane, rational person would want 100% unfettterd ideology implemented - because they do not account for the fact that humans gonna human.
@@pr0xZen disagree, socialism = lazyism. I’m not having politicans come in and implement “free” government programs that are more expensive than our current system. No fing thank you
Polls have gotten more accurate? Cool story bro. Marist had Gillum up by 7 in 2018. He lost. Trafalgar group was the only one to get the electoral votes 100% accurate and they're rated C- 😆
Shock! Surprise! Pollsters think their job is valuable! Australia has compulsory voting, we aren’t totalitarian. Ignorant comments like that are below the standard I expected.
Polling is the only accurate predictive tool we have in terms of figuring out how things will go on Election Day. In 2016 every state but one (Wisconsin) finished within the polling margin of error. While polls showed Hillary leading, if you look at the states where she led but lost, all but Wisconsin were statistical ties, meaning the media’s analysis of the polls was flawed, not the polls themselves.
Even if Wisconsin had gone to Clinton, Trump still would’ve won 2016. The polling average in Wisconsin in 2016 was Hillary 4.8% and it went to Trump by 0.77%, a 5.57% swing. If you take every state that Biden is currently leading in today by 5.57% or less and give them to Trump, Biden wins with 279 EVs
DEF not. Most Trump supporters will not tell a random person on the phone who they’re voting for, plain and simple. Too many people losing jobs because of it
The best poll will be on November 3rd....oh, and it’s free.
Yup only costs hundred of thousands of tax payer dollars.. haha
@@OopsFailedArt instead of the 10 million that KIllary Spent in 2016... sounds like a steal.
no, you can go to vote now .no need to wait november 3rd
@@OopsFailedArt 100's of thousands or $34.5 Billion...i
@@stephenfoster1196 haha your pick
0:17 A poll to see if polls are accurate haha
U might as well just run a census.. that's a poll . Just a poll of everyone..
Just because the Democrats are losing😂
Statistically speaking, 80% of statistics are wrong. The remaining 30% of statistics are perfectly correct every time, although 90% of statistics are dubious or shoddy at best.
@@pr0xZen wrong.. your poll is as good as how it was designed to sample and what error you expect.. no poll is full proof
. Ie.factory quality control is a poll . Impossible to qc everything.. but u can say.. based on whatever error I want I need to randomly sample z number of items before I can validate if I truly only have less than a percentage of faulty items. Things like that work. Human polls about opinion are totally different matter .. theres usually too many things to account for.
@@pr0xZen also. I should note.. you go to vegas and u see the odds at the craps or blackjack table.. which is statistics.. I don't think 80% of the time those statistics for the odds are wrong..
Short answer: No
Long answer: Ask Hillary LMAO
She said she won the popular vote by roughly what the polls were saying.
@@lewisturner5362 The purpose of polls are to predict the outcome of the election.
Guess what? It didn’t.
@@akilon996 uhh no that's not what the purpose of polls is; polls are supposed to tell you roughly what percentage of the vote each candidate is supposed to get. If you predict a candidate is going to get 60% of the vote and they win by only getting 50.1% then the poll is still inaccurate
@@filteredacapella It's not 50-50, it's 10-90.
😆😆😆
The only poll that matters is the ballot box on election day.
*CORRECT !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!*
Not when you win the popular vote but lose because of the EC
No the only that matter is the people count your vote.
@@leehyunsong7001 ok?
@@WOODSLD80 Its democracy between each state. The electoral college keeps democracy and is based on what the people in each state vote. So it stills matters, even if the popular vote goes against it.
When your Legit first piece of information to see how accurate polls are is a poll about polls.
There's a poll of polls, never ever heard of it?
That's meta
Just goes to show you that these polls are a joke .
Panzer video.parler.com/7V/Zq/7VZqjiROZzmb.mp4 💥💥💥Hunter Biden's call recording! It proves that Joe Biden fully knew and participated in Hunter's series of collusion with the CCP.
It’s a poll on the public’s perception of polls, not on the true accuracy of polling. Not that hard to understand tbh
Polls are meant to ~shape~ people’s opinions NOT reflect them
I’m not sure that’s very common- at least with the circle of folks I know. Would that really work with such a political thing anyhow?
Nah
@Aditya Ingole isn’t that what u guys said during the midterms? And it was more like a blue puddle as both houses of Congress just traded hands. Go count trump to Biden sitns
Rush Limbaugh
@Aditya Ingole which proves they're horrific because the United States isn't represented by three major cities despite the fact a large portion of people live there. The bottom line is that's not how you win an election you have to hit individual states. The strategy of just getting the most votes is about something a third grader would do
Nope, with them saying Biden leads Texas.😂🤣😭😂🤣 was all the proof I needed to confirm my suspicions.
Isnt Texas a flip state right now? I dont think it will happen but maybe right now he is in the lead.
@@faithfullyfaith199 Texas is very right leaning. Only a few areas are democratic and with Biden killing the oil industry I don't see it happening.
@@beardedrogue4282 I don't see it happening either. I just think it's going to be closer than in the past years because so many more people are voting.
Not true. I voted for Mr. Poll last Tuesday.
👍🎯🤣
Ask Hillary
Crooked Shillery Rotten Clinton
@Marie Marie do you reallt think you can blame one president for a worldwide virus? Trump can’t even do much about the virus; the governors are the ones who hold the real power. Even if he messed up on the virus he is still a lot better than that dog faced pony soldier geriatric
@@TKUA11 He forgot to implement the federal response and also destroyed the Pandemic Response Team that Obama left him.
@HorizonGaming791 Fauci has to also dance around with his words carefully, since Trump would just fire him if he directly called the guy the orange idiot that he is.
@@4nlimited3dition_4n3d You do know it was your leftist mayors and governors that killed thousands of elderly patients after sending covid patients into nursing homes. Trump let the states decide what was best for their state. I know you wish he would have become the dictator you people keep calling him and take over, but he let you destroy yourselves.
We will find out in 8 days...
6
5
@@itzrudy872 4
@choppa on fn 2
1
0:14. A poll of a polls!!! Ha ha ha ha! :D
Think the problem went over their heads...
Only NBC can think of that.
Before watching.
No.
All the results that led to Trump's Victory were within the Margin of Error
@@kerzariz8717 i remember pollsters calling that margin of error a landslide, blue wave, win for hilary
@@jordansims9162 I remember it was the Media hyping her chances up and not the actual poll. I remember Trump leading two Points a few weeks before the election. And I remember the Polls tightening a few days before the Election.
I also remember the Republican October Surprise wherein Clinton was announced to be investigated by the FBI. And I also remember the Wikileaks release of the DNC Cheating.
Are there any Scandals on Biden? The Hunter Scandal? Seems pretty benign to me, not as big as Killary's Corruption.
@@kerzariz8717 so they accurately, inaccurately predicted the election. Good on them. It seems the polls did what they do best. Guess. Pretty amazing prediction technology.
Short answer: No
Another one who does not know statistics.
@@ava8147 We will see November 3, 2020. If Trump wins, will the poll be considered real? Lol
@@gleitsonSalles Anybody who actually knows anything about statistics would know you can manipulate them easily.
@@SandmanFromNJ What about the 2018 midterm elections. Those were mostly right.
Trump is slightly ahead (= plenty ahead) in Ohio, that is the key poll
When do these polls happen I never got polled by these so called accurate result givers
So I am.not only one
I'm Indian American voting for TRUMP ...
Polls says Indian American r not voting for Rep. but it's wrong in this election more nd more Indian community and Black people r voting for Trump ..m
Trump 2020.
I am an Asian born American who wants to make America great again!
The answer is no, I've saved you time.
much obliged
I don't trust anyone or anything. It's too dangerous to trust these days.
No they are not trust worthy we saw what happened GO VOTE 🗳
vote RED
Vote nothing their all Down with New Order
@@Castillobusy why I’m sorry I ain’t living another 4 years of this Biden 2020 he actually has a plan unlike Trump who all he talks about is hunter who is not running for president
@@josephsprecher9462 so you want a president in office that has a crackhead son. Who has been to rehab for his cocaine addiction. Who was kicked out of the navy due to testing positive for cocaine. If you have the right to vote for who you want but i would not vote for a man with a family like that. A man that would send all american jobs overseas. A man who cant decide whether he is going to ban fracking or not, who thinks he is entitled to the minority vote. Nah no thanks.
@@josephsprecher9462 yeah with corruption and no, I’m sick of socialism, I come from Venezuela and I have seen what the corruption looks like
4:50 the revenues are not listed in order, but are talked about as if they are
Exactly. I was wondering how Kantar was #4. But I guess the list was in order of popularity in the US, not in order of revenue.
@@MoneyGist Worked like the 2016 election!
I lie on polls all the time.
Why? What good does that do anyone?
Haha I do too. I told one company I’d be voting for Biden (I voted for Trump)
The answer is NO. When I answered surveys, I answer the exact opposite of what I'm going to do.
But why
The answer is no. If you look at 2020 elections counts and drill down to each states, there is a definite and clear differences in votes from large city area and more rural area. If polls don’t mix up the population properly presenting the whole population, it will always result in skewed analysis
i have read this as "are poles trustworthy?"))
Nope... I've never known a republican who's been polled... ever.
Yeah cause Republicans don’t win elections and don’t lead in an election.
Ignore the polls. Vote.
What an idiotic question. A poll is neither trustworthy nor untrustworthy. They are what they are. If people can't interpret them correctly then that's not the fault of the poll. If they're poorly designed then that's the fault of the pollster. If they are "wrong" (which is to say that they predict one thing and something else happens) then that goes back to people not being able to actually understand or interpret them correctly. A poll has not only a margin of error but also typically has a statistical deviation of any predictions that come out of it. Sometimes when something is 75-25, the 25% chance comes through. In fact, it comes through about 1/4 of the time... that's an awful lot of the time.
I’ve never answered a poll. Who’s ever answered polls? I’m 34 and never met anyone who’s answered polls.
Vote Libertarian. Let's get it. 💪
Uh no of course not
Who is to say that a lot of people who respond to polls aren't trolling to deliberately skew the numbers- just for fun?
WOW! You've created new job opportunities for trolls who haven't thought of it😂😂
Exactly
This all seems to assume respondents are being honest.
2016 it happened, then in the UK it happened......and its the attitude of the left.
The issue is how the media and people treat right-wing voters. The hassle, the comments, the abuse and attacks, it drives them underground or simply makes them afraid to say who they support, well, until voting day.
That is why you have silent voters and you get the "how did that happen" on voting day.
The same thing happened in the UK. Labour and left-wing going on at Brexit/Tory voters, abuse and everything you can name, so in the polls, they looked like they would maybe win.
Even on the voting day, it looked like the polls had the win for Labour, but what happened was a Tory landslide, the biggest in 100 years.
This was because people just kept hush about who they want to win, some even said Labour just so they could fit in and not get hassle, the same thing is going to happen Nov 3rd.
A poll (lol) was done with Trump voters, they asked how many hide the fact that they support Trump, 13% said they did, now if that is national, that is a win right there.
Also saw a story with a guy saying there were no political signs up in his neighbourhood (mixed race) then one morning he said "screw this" and put a Trump sign up, days later there were dozens of signs and flags lol they were all just hiding the fact.
The 2016 polls weren't very far off. The reason is, there were too many undecided voters in 2016. Many of them turned out to have voted for Trump, instead of Hillary. Hillary were leading in states like MI and PA, but her polls never exceeded 50% among all likely voters. This election is different. Biden has been leading consistently for many months now. His polls exceed 50% in both MI and PA. Plus there aren't many undecided voters in the polls this year. At the same time, the polls in 2020 show that Trump has never improved his base in many states cause his supporters remain more or less the same percentages in the polls of states like PA and MI, whereas Biden has picked up a few percents of the undecided voters in 2016. Trump beat Hillary by less than 1% in both PA and MI. And this year Biden is leading Trump by more than Hillary was. The difference is more than 2%. Biden will win by winning PA and MI even if he loses in both AZ and FL. So, it is highly likely that Biden will win this election.
Don't forget ... many, many people did not like Hillary.. and trump was new to the scene.Now we know how badly trump failed and it time to move on.. Whole different election this time.
Only if people actually vot so VOTE!!!
I’ve never even been asked to participate in a poll
i see ppl in the comments clearly didnt watch the video lol
There is no obligation for people to tell the truth to pollsters.
A major problem with the whole discussion of statistics is the failure to distinguish between intentional and unintentional bias. I am not a statistician but have worked with quality engineers to endeavour to take unintentional bias out of sampling methods, especially those requiring human input. It is not easy. I can hear efforts in the video to reduce unintentional bias and one reference to what intentional bias may sound like. I did not hear, though I should probably listen again, any attempt to distinguish the two forms of bias. I feel that appreciating the difference is important for a consumer of polling data.
Bingo! Most of the polls over sample democratic leaning people and then point that it validates their opinion. It’s the bias of the media and universities towards the left. They hope is discourages the right to stay home as the end is a forgone conclusion
@@seestuff09 I was talking about the possible presence of unintentional bias even what is intended to be unbiased data. The subject you wish to discuss is a totally different matter. In order to start a discussion I would need to review your evidence of the oversampling you allude to. A properly-designed poll should avoid such oversampling. That is the whole purpose of designing a poll rather than just picking up a clipboard and hitting the street.
This didn't age well.
DON'T TRUST POLLS
Not when you dominantly poll democratic areas to skew the numbers lol....
Ignore the polls.
Vote. Vote. Vote 💙💙💙. 👍
(Friday +99,321 new cases,
+971 deaths. Covid!)
Simple answer, no.
Think polls are flawed because people less connected to technology from my experience tend to vote trump
Lack of an educational tool. The internet is a resource, you're correct
You don't have to look at the polls. Just look at the statistics of early voting. Texas has 80% of the vote that they got in 2016 already. Maine has 43% of the vote already. Other states are quickly shattering records.
Before a poll can be considered trustworthy, it should be shown that it is not substantially biased. In the case of presidential election polls, it should be shown that the political party distribution of those sampled (Republican/right-leaning independent, Democrat/left-leaning independent) does not deviate from that of the overall population (i.e. higher proportion of left-leaning people in the sample than that in the actual population).
They skipped everything people are interested in. We want to know how publishing a poll affects voting. If the poll, for example, says candidate A is winning by 9% in a State does that do more to get more votes out for candidate B or the candidate A?
Does doubt in the accuracy of polls change that dynamic, and if so who does that favor?
How are these patterns affected by larger or smaller gaps?
How many polls are never reported to the public? Should they be required to?
How can we stop insincere polling companies just designed to sway voters rather than really getting their untainted opinion? Can we accredit poling companies in some way, and make it fraud for these crooked companies to pretend they are accredited?
If a weatherman says there is a 93% chance of no rain tomorrow and it rains, that doesn't mean his prediction was wrong. There was also a 7% chance of it raining, and that's just what happened!
No.
2016 is pretty much why people don't believe in polls.
Allow me to answer !
Clears throat*** : Nope!
Please, people don't be like the media. If You want to be treat fairly then you should do the same to our president. Do your research before you judge him. Thank you Vietnamese for Trump
just don't poll
It really comes more down to a very abstract concept of probability that would have to factor in all variables (and such list would probably be very long), the polls can not only be inaccurate at times but made even more inaccurate when someone decides to mess with the representation of data to make it fit their picture more.
Plus it's hard to factor in the power of the "silent majority".
Trump has discussed rigging the Electoral College with republican controlled state legislatures. It’s up to the Supreme Court as to whether this will be allowed and he has rigged that also.
No
If the polls are accurate, Texas appears to be close. With the second most electoral votes, why isn't Biden spending a lot of time in Texas? Is he not doing as well there as the polls indicate?
Save yourself 14 pointless minutes and watch the media meltdown from 4 years ago for the real answer
Silent Majority
I miss Ronald Reagan
In Australia we have Compulsory voting and we are not an Authoritarian state and 95% of all eligible voters vote. Making everyone vote has it's benefits as there is only one person to blame if the wrong people are in power - everyone. It sure beats the voter suppression you see in the US.
Simple answer: no
At 13:02 Patricia Moy incorrectly says that countries where you are forced to vote are totalitarian regimes. I can tell you right now, Australia's mandatory voting system with preferential (1-2-3-4 numbering) voting is much, much better and ultimately more democratic than the USA's.
The notion that places with very high voter turnout are less democratic seems unfounded to me. I might be wrong, but I think France and Australia have mandatory voting, and those places are hardly less democratic than the US.
You’ve got to go vote. Polls do not elect people voters do. Don’t take it for granted go vote everybody. please!!!!!
This is a joke that this is a multimillion dollar industry!!!
We still need to address why one vote in a less populated state has more weight than one vote in a more populated state. If we only count the popular vote, Biden would surely win. And we wouldn’t need to conjecture.
I trust Facebook and TH-cam likes and dislike bar more than these polls. And we have trolls here.
Who’s getting more votes?
Include Nevada , Minnesota and New Hampshire
Where do they get there sample size from? Never been poll in my life and neither has my family and friends.
Of 100 million registered voters in the United States...how many were polled. If you asked ONE MILLION people, that's 1%. Not a good sample.
Of course polls will not go away, polls provide critical information.
I trust poles, I mean why shouldn’t I if the dancer does?
I have spoken to 6 Americans friends and former colleagues about their voting intentions , all 6 are involved in business producing things or in businesses selling to people producing things
in 2016 2 voted Trump 4 voted Hillary 2020 5 say they are voting Trump and one now working in the uk has made a decision not to vote.
3 say they hate Trump but they fear the impact of New Democratic policies on business more than they hate Trump.
A common theme is the attitude and aggression of friends neighbours and family working in education, health .government , media etc etc etc who hate Trump.
As one friend said ' just hold your nose and vote Trump'
Rather than talk college educated and non , should you not be looking at business people who perceive that they could be badly affected by Democrat policies and white collar service industry people that concentrate on Trumps style.
P.s. Business is the economic driver of America service industry rides on the back of , perhaps you should speak to business people and LISTEN. 😀
Please go out and vote for Trump! He needs your vote more than he ever did before. It really is one of the most important elections there ever were. Your voice matters! #Trump2020
I am Catholic apóstolic roman, but I wont vote for a False Prophet that silent 8 mistresses' abortions! I used to be Republican. Not anymore my friend!!
Biden2020
Best 13 minute nap I’ve ever had.
No. There, saved you 13 minutes.
Only trust statistics, you made yourself 😉
Polls are statistics. Polls are Mathematical random sampling that resemble the population parameter as accurately as possible. But not all random samples are accurate samples
@SEC Securities and Exchange Commission Accuracy determined by the lying media.
@SEC Securities and Exchange Commission people will lie to a random pollster but how many people who won't vote for someone will pound that person's name into the land in front of there house?
@SEC Securities and Exchange Commission you don't think you can lie about your opinion? Are you for real?
NO
I clicked on this video thinking it was about polish people
A poll about polling accuracy lmao
No, go vote. Now have fun watching the video.
It still surprises me to some extent, how so big a chuck of the population that is struggling the most, that have been going through the toughest of breaks for a long time - seem to so commonly cast their votes for candidates, platforms and agendas that are the _least_ likely to help them towards improving their conditions.
This is certainly not a uniquely American phenomenon by any stretch of the imagination, nor something new or isolated to large national elections. But it does at times seem like it's turned up to 11 in the US.
I do wonder why this is. Mostly the general phenomenon, but also why it often seems so intensified and widespread in America. Is it the hardening polarization? Is it ingrown or inherited partisanship? Tradition? Us vs them flock mentality? Are those people primarily voting with their "hearts" or "gut" rather than their analytical mind? Is it a "since life is hard for me, I'd rather it was equally hard for everyone else too" thing? Are their desperations and/or shortfalls in insight, making them easy(er) targets for manipulation, for (reasonably obvious) empty promises and honeyed lies - telling them what they want to hear so they'll let their critical thinking guards down?
Socialism is not help, it’s corruption
@@themiddleclasstaxslave651 Why are you bringing socialism into this?
And socialism isn't any more corruption than captialism is, any mix, and other models. All implementation can be exploited and corrupted. And no sane, rational person would want 100% unfettterd ideology implemented - because they do not account for the fact that humans gonna human.
@@pr0xZen disagree, socialism = lazyism. I’m not having politicans come in and implement “free” government programs that are more expensive than our current system. No fing thank you
Polls have gotten more accurate? Cool story bro.
Marist had Gillum up by 7 in 2018. He lost. Trafalgar group was the only one to get the electoral votes 100% accurate and they're rated C- 😆
Margin of error?
Shock! Surprise! Pollsters think their job is valuable! Australia has compulsory voting, we aren’t totalitarian. Ignorant comments like that are below the standard I expected.
How come they never pull me? They don't like my answers.
Yes. The Polls shows yes.
Polling is the only accurate predictive tool we have in terms of figuring out how things will go on Election Day. In 2016 every state but one (Wisconsin) finished within the polling margin of error. While polls showed Hillary leading, if you look at the states where she led but lost, all but Wisconsin were statistical ties, meaning the media’s analysis of the polls was flawed, not the polls themselves.
Even if Wisconsin had gone to Clinton, Trump still would’ve won 2016. The polling average in Wisconsin in 2016 was Hillary 4.8% and it went to Trump by 0.77%, a 5.57% swing. If you take every state that Biden is currently leading in today by 5.57% or less and give them to Trump, Biden wins with 279 EVs
DEF not. Most Trump supporters will not tell a random person on the phone who they’re voting for, plain and simple. Too many people losing jobs because of it
The polling has been so accurate like the time Hillary was going to destroy Donald Trump. It reminds me of the time they predicted Biden up by 11%.
No!
This was a damn joke...
You can trust a poll by a poll about polls 😉
Polls are meant to influence opinion, not reflect it
I have quit doing surveys. They waste your time.
No, the answer is no lol
I trust Bill Cosby mixing me a drink than CNBC.
How reliable is polling? Answer: we look at race and you gotta know how accurate the poll is. These people are ridiculous.