The Housing Crash Is Here (50% Drop in Sales) | Analyst Nick Gerli

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  • เผยแพร่เมื่อ 31 ม.ค. 2025

ความคิดเห็น • 663

  • @Wealthion
    @Wealthion  2 ปีที่แล้ว +13

    REGISTER for Wealthion's Sep 24 online conference at wealthion.com/conference

    • @lyleburlingame2276
      @lyleburlingame2276 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      Adam be careful who you partner with and have on without challenging them. Nick has been saying the sky was falling since he first started in 2020- early 2021 - if I listened to him I’d be a lot less wealthy and own 2 less rental units and still be renting in the bay. Laughing he said “artificially low interest rates - then next sentence said “rates have surged 2x from normal levels”. His channel panders to renters and folks priced out of the market. He is also a renter by the way- so funny he said no good buying opportunities until 2026 or 2027. Dangerous bc ppl who don’t know better will listen to his “crystal ball and wait for the bottom while life and many opportunities pass buy. Nick has good data but beware. He DOES NOT have a crystal ball and he’s not an RE investor yet as far as I know. His channel exploded bc he was putting out the FUD and “crash is imminent” everyone wanted to hear. Well guess what there is always good deals to be had. And hell no am I waiting for this guy to tell me when to buy in 4 to 5 years. Laughable. Would you wait for someone who never bought stocks to tell you when to buy adam ?

    • @planobest8120
      @planobest8120 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      These guys are out of touch. Lower home values is a good thing because it means lower property taxes. Only a fool would want to spend money based on the value of their house. A house is something you live in it’s not a commodity unless you own more than one.

  • @ClementRusso2
    @ClementRusso2 ปีที่แล้ว +271

    I think a housing crash will happen because all those people who bought homes over asking price, although it was at a low interest rate, they are over their heads. They have no equity if the housing prices continue to go down, and if for whatever reason they cannot afford the house anymore and it goes into foreclosure because even if they try to sell, they will not make any money. I think this will happen to a lot of people especially with the massive layoff predicted for the future and the cost of living rising at a high speed.

    • @VickyAlvy
      @VickyAlvy ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Consider reallocating from real estate to stocks. Severe recessions offer market buying opportunities with caution, as volatility can yield short-term trading prospects. Not financial advice, but it may be wise to invest, as cash isn't ideal in this period.

    • @antonnohr
      @antonnohr ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Can you suggest the investment coach you've been using? It appears you've had success with their guidance.

    • @antonnohr
      @antonnohr ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Stacey really seem to know her stuff. I found her online-page, read through her resume, educational background, qualifications and it was really impressive. She is a fiduciary who will act in my best interest. So, I booked a session with her.

  • @tracynealcountryrockbluesm5746
    @tracynealcountryrockbluesm5746 2 ปีที่แล้ว +79

    Great guest!
    Here's a point missed by most: If your job can be done remotely from across the country (in the USA), then most of these jobs will wind up being done by SOMEONE ELSE, in India (i.e.,) for 10 cents on the dollar. This big next leg in "outsourcing" is not even being talked about much.
    What do you think about that?
    Thanks,
    Tracy

    • @Wealthion
      @Wealthion  2 ปีที่แล้ว +20

      I agree! I've made this very case several times on this channel

    • @chrispaul1117
      @chrispaul1117 2 ปีที่แล้ว +8

      Heard that since the 90s.. Its hard to outsource lots of jobs.
      Tesla , appl, etc,, are DEMANDING workers return to the office.
      Something about face to face cohesion cant be priced in.
      Same as in education.. I figured physical classrooms would be over by now.
      Cost although a factor is not all that matters.. Culture and proximity are huge factors.
      But , point taken

    • @tylercampbell6272
      @tylercampbell6272 2 ปีที่แล้ว +6

      It's difficult to outsource jobs. If they are uncomfortable with domestic workers being remote, how do you think they'll feel internationally.

    • @ryans.6722
      @ryans.6722 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      40 cents on the dollar in India vs US

    • @DoubleOhSilver
      @DoubleOhSilver 2 ปีที่แล้ว +11

      Nah, it depends. I'm a software dev and I've seen plenty of programmers who have no idea what they're doing or are bad at it -- like more than half. As long as I'm actually skilled, I'll be fine. Plus, I can create my own software independently.

  • @georgecarlisle9470
    @georgecarlisle9470 2 ปีที่แล้ว +60

    It isn't just interest rates. People use to afford homes in the 70s with higher rates. The cost of building and the value of the dollar both inversely have changed costs. Wages not keeping up over the last 50 years also contribute

    • @monkeybearmax
      @monkeybearmax 2 ปีที่แล้ว +5

      That rates were in the teens then. Still affordable on one income.

    • @duanejackson6718
      @duanejackson6718 2 ปีที่แล้ว +4

      It's because love was free and a buck was still silver.

    • @ohword3333
      @ohword3333 2 ปีที่แล้ว +3

      Its just flippers buying from flippers over inflating the price. Once one starts under cutting everything finna crater

    • @karlpierce3035
      @karlpierce3035 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      The dollar also just got detached from the gold standard. Paper is just paper now.

    • @lindawojtas4491
      @lindawojtas4491 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      RISING COSTS SHOULD HAVE NEVER HAPPENED.......EVER...AND, THE CASH BUYING DUMMKOPFS ARE ABOUT TO SEE FEEL AND EXPERIENCE WHY.....!!!!!!

  • @chrisesparza2424
    @chrisesparza2424 2 ปีที่แล้ว +13

    I live in Katy TX which is about 30 minutes from Houston. There is so much construction and new communities opening up it's ridiculous. I am home shopping and builders are already lowering the prices and are offering unbelievable incentives like 30k to use for costs. I am going to continue to rent and watch this play out after seeing this video.

    • @johnnyperez1969
      @johnnyperez1969 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Good for you 🎉

    • @danman1287
      @danman1287 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Tx is toast...missed 2005 run-up...but in the center of 2022

    • @adrianlopez2215
      @adrianlopez2215 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      Wait it will b to your advantage

  • @Sperry411
    @Sperry411 2 ปีที่แล้ว +7

    Back in March 2020 on the beginning of pandemic, I almost bought a house in Houston for $360. Now in Nov of 2022, it's listed for $500k. I backed out because I did not researched the property tax..it would be 10k a year. Nope. This time, I'm full of regrets but sadly it's off market.

    • @aishataviator
      @aishataviator 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      This housing crash happens every 15 yrs. So next year , what is 500k now might be back down to 360 or less. . Just stay looped in with the property values next year.. in that area. Seller mightput it back on the market and itching to get it off their hands

    • @adrianlopez2215
      @adrianlopez2215 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Too much tax no way don't bother

    • @joshhyma842
      @joshhyma842 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@aishataviator Data to back that up? When did the housing market crash aside from 2008 in the US only?

    • @aishataviator
      @aishataviator 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@joshhyma842 Was really talking about the steep fluctuation in prices every 15 yrs, which pertains more to a bubble rather than a crash

    • @aishataviator
      @aishataviator 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@joshhyma842 Inflation Adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index ….more specific search suggested

  • @holliday.
    @holliday. 2 ปีที่แล้ว +4

    Wealthion is worth subscribing with notifications on. I was already subbed to your guest today. Reventure consulting has been spot on!

  • @roadtested9009
    @roadtested9009 2 ปีที่แล้ว +7

    I'm seeing price declines in my area but so far, they're in 5K to 10K increrments, which, IMO are too small to effect a quick sale. Anyone looking to sell now needs to really cut their expectations and asking prices. Forget about realizing all that crazy paper appreciation, unload, now.

    • @leeslees65
      @leeslees65 2 ปีที่แล้ว +3

      It seems there are some who were a little late in making the decision to sell and are still trying to ride the buying frenzy wave we just went through. I would feel bad for them if asking prices during that time hadn't been so unreasonably inflated.

  • @AZWings
    @AZWings 2 ปีที่แล้ว +6

    I live in Phx. It's been obvious for a couple years values were way too high. Comps for the house I bought in 2013 were listing at 3x what I paid. I'm not surprised at all that this market was unsustainable.

  • @gerryreed5573
    @gerryreed5573 2 ปีที่แล้ว +17

    Yes please bring Nick back for more interviews and housing market analysis!

  • @rsvp6
    @rsvp6 2 ปีที่แล้ว +7

    a couple of thoughts. For existing home owners with a FIXED rate mortgage, your property values can go down and you could be underwater for several years, at least your mortgage will be constant. I have been in this situation but always used the theory that you have to live somewhere.
    For renters, I can understand the theory of declining rents due to supply and demand. Large commercial housing projects still have maintenance costs, property taxes, insurance, etc. that are continuing to go up with inflation putting pressure on their margins. How low do you think rents can go?

    • @leeslees65
      @leeslees65 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      @rickroxx location is everything! It sounds like you're sitting in a pretty good position equity-wise, but question. What are your insurance, tax, and cost of living expenses running you for housing in that area? A lot of times it's those other expenses beyond the mortgage (ie HOAs, etc.) that become problematic over time.

  • @JaneDoe-bw8mn
    @JaneDoe-bw8mn 2 ปีที่แล้ว +19

    Great to see Nick as a guest again on your channel, Adam. Thanks!

  • @nancylpr
    @nancylpr ปีที่แล้ว +1

    27 year Realtor here. Zestimates are HIGHLY inaccurate! (at least in my area) they are only decent if you live in a uniform subdivision with a good amount of recent sales. They are not good in non subdivision and unique properties.

  • @T4nkcommander
    @T4nkcommander 2 ปีที่แล้ว +17

    The first time you two collaborated was the first time I heard of your channel - really glad you two paired up, as I find your channel outstanding!

  • @LA70S
    @LA70S 2 ปีที่แล้ว +8

    When we bought our first home, interest rates were at 10%. Yes, rates can certainly rise and probably will. Mortgage rates aren't even close to the rise in 1978.

    • @mauijym7798
      @mauijym7798 2 ปีที่แล้ว +9

      Am I wrong or were home prices a lot cheaper then? Thus, 10% internet on a smaller amount isn’t as debilitating as 6% on a larger sum of money

    • @leeslees65
      @leeslees65 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@mauijym7798 people also made a lot less money so it really isn't a whole lot different, which is why people didn't waste any time refinancing back then when the interest rates began decreasing. What goes up must come down. The market ebs and flows.

    • @Brando-sw1jx
      @Brando-sw1jx ปีที่แล้ว

      A house back then was probably like $30K and two people probably made like $20K combined.

  • @pegtop5455
    @pegtop5455 2 ปีที่แล้ว +9

    I followed Nick over here. Great collaboration! Thank you for making him look like a hero. He is a hero. He has predicted every change before it came.

    • @pegtop5455
      @pegtop5455 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Subscribed.

  • @MSWSB
    @MSWSB 2 ปีที่แล้ว +5

    “Sales” dropping 50% means nothing until the prices drop the same.
    Dropping $5K - $10K off a house that magically jumped $200K-$300K in price is still offensive and destructive.

  • @ManInTheBigHat
    @ManInTheBigHat 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    I see things declining all over, but not in Denver. My "walkable" neighborhood is selling modest homes for 800k. I sold a tear down last summer on a big lot for 515k. Builders in this neighborhood can't keep up with demand. But this is a very special area 2 miles from downtown Denver. Elsewhere I do see markets stalling and prices falling.

  • @mariarivero9567
    @mariarivero9567 2 ปีที่แล้ว +11

    Outstanding interview. I also watch Nick regularly and appreciate how much he has done with the data to make sense of the housing market. One thing we have noticed is that with the higher mortgage rates, for investors rents do not cover expenses and prices have to come down for it to make sense to buy housing to rent.

    • @MSWSB
      @MSWSB 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      And for the landlords who already own and are raising rents hundreds of dollars, while none of their costs have gone up, with more people unable to buy because of catastrophically high sale prices and high rates, these landlords will raise rents even higher, because tenants have no choice and will only get hit with higher costs to start a new lease, and competition for the ever dwindling rentals.
      This entire thing that started in 2020 is disgusting.

    • @torsten6777
      @torsten6777 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      Rents almost doubled over the last two years, so if interest rates now doubled as well then now much changed. Also, rent doubled for already previously low interest financed properties, so rental profit is now way way way up! No need to worry about the landlords!

    • @MSWSB
      @MSWSB 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      It’s one thing to raise the price of a gallon of water in a Hurricane, because your costs to get that gallon of water to the consumer go up.
      It’s another thing to collude with the banks to buy up all the water and then double the price while you don’t deliver anything, but instead sit back and watch the masses compete for the privilege of buying your water.
      Very Hunger games. They should be proud of themselves.

  • @galvygal4601
    @galvygal4601 2 ปีที่แล้ว +13

    Great content, Adam! Appreciate this guest.
    By the way, I've been trying to contact you. Just transferred my retirement portfolio to Lance's team and it's thanks to you! Appreciate all you do. I've learned so much and feel more confident with knowledge and RIA Advisors managing my monies. Wouldn’t have found them with apart from your channel.

  • @co5313
    @co5313 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    You guys know what you are talking about. Each time I hear what you have to say regarding housing prices falling, I check the house I sold in Oct 2020. I sold it for $420k. In 2021-early 2022 it's value jumped up according to Zillow between approx $500-$530. NOW it's estimated value on Zillow is $452 - $505. It's a small 2/1 house; 850 sf. In another few months that house is going to be right back to the value I sold it for! The house is in Sacramento, located near East Sac and the University of Sacramento.

  • @itechfive240
    @itechfive240 2 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    You content providers are outsmarting the algo. Your led into the next vid was why better than the other guys Thank you for being on point and honest.

  • @jshep23
    @jshep23 2 ปีที่แล้ว +4

    I'm in Vegas, to me a 20% drop almost isn't enough. Prices have been overly inflated for years. A $500k home is now $1M+ from 2020 build, a 2019 build $600k is now $2.5M. A 20% drop isn't anything on a $2M home when we're seeing 2x and 3x.
    For me, I hope reality takes over. Because they're just destroying the ability to buy a home here which will overall cause serious problems for Las Vegas. You cannot only be a city of renters.

    • @realitybites1794
      @realitybites1794 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      Vegas is absurdly overpriced. I would expect 35% correction there at least

    • @jshep23
      @jshep23 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@realitybites1794 I literally want 50%+ so that I have that and Foreclosures to look at

    • @DuncanL7979
      @DuncanL7979 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Vegas is like Florida on steroids... It becomes greatly overvalued during the boom and very undervalued after the crash

  • @EMan-cu5zo
    @EMan-cu5zo 2 ปีที่แล้ว +175

    I can only hope the housing market goes down. I see this as a benefit for most. People shouldn’t use their home as leverage anyway. Housing is not supposed to be like stock trading.

    • @diegovaldez1359
      @diegovaldez1359 2 ปีที่แล้ว +5

      Amen. Your home is Not an investment, It is your home !

    • @joyceannford
      @joyceannford 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@diegovaldez1359 True. But passing down property to one's children is a way to create family wealth. When you no longer live in it, your home could finance a college education, or simply provide a foundation for the success.

    • @freeandcriticalthinker4431
      @freeandcriticalthinker4431 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      E Man: you obviously don’t have a basic handle on economics. Many many people including myself understands how critically bonded housing is to other sectors of the economy. And if someone who owns there home, they can leverage credit against it or not. Fine for them. Fine for me. And NONE of my damn business either..🤭 I don’t happen to be a Saint that are able to tell other people what to do or should do

    • @EMan-cu5zo
      @EMan-cu5zo 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@freeandcriticalthinker4431 thanks for your wisdom

    • @freeandcriticalthinker4431
      @freeandcriticalthinker4431 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@EMan-cu5zo , Your Welcome sir. I am glad to render my talents, Knowledge and skills rarely found on planet earth.

  • @sephiroth6839
    @sephiroth6839 2 ปีที่แล้ว +6

    I am in the Bay Area and I spewed my coffee...out of joy. Prices here need to go down by at least 40% though.

    • @montecristo7298
      @montecristo7298 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      Same here. Although I will move to Sacramento area once the prices drop at least 25%.

    • @coolcat6544
      @coolcat6544 2 ปีที่แล้ว +4

      Agree. Bay area needs to crash by 40%

  • @Zoet50
    @Zoet50 2 ปีที่แล้ว +5

    It’s all about location. I live in the most expensive oregon suburb. Houses sell quickly and at the asking or above. Many California transplants

    • @The_Victorius_One
      @The_Victorius_One 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      The Pacific NW was the last market to peak in late 2007 when other area topped as early as late 2005 with nationwide peak 2006. Maybe history repeats

    • @chrispaul1117
      @chrispaul1117 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      location for sure.
      report back in a year

  • @gonul2163
    @gonul2163 2 ปีที่แล้ว +23

    I watch Nick every day. Great interview and looking forward to see the next one. Thank you. I was planning to buy a house in Marshall, Linden VA area before the pandemic and missed my opportunity. I was too picky, I guess. Home values was up almost %40 some were more than that and was selling too fast. I do see the changing trend now. Hopefully I would be able to buy in coming years. I owned a condo in Falls Church VA and here too values started go down. I was a property manager for a while and last year $1500 rent gone up to $1900. This is insane. I live in a kind of lower income condo building and people were having hard time when it was $1500. Everyday someone calling to ask if I have available unit. I think most investors are missing the point that people cannot pay their rent. Investor I was working for sold most of the units. Again thank you for the video.

  • @edwardk4198
    @edwardk4198 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    Anecdotal but noticed that when I sold my house the offer matched the Zillow price. Zestimates are widely watched and incorporated into buyer/seller expectations. There should be a formal academic study of this indicator and the availability of formerly only-institutional information now widely dispersed.

  • @juliapatti2341
    @juliapatti2341 2 ปีที่แล้ว +4

    Over 50% of the homes listed in Boise are empty or staged. Why? What are the implications of this situation?

    • @monkeybearmax
      @monkeybearmax 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      Have prices started reflecting this?

  • @wakethebarbarian4577
    @wakethebarbarian4577 2 ปีที่แล้ว +211

    Never miss a video from Nick. The truth hurts for the real estate complex.

    • @susannicky
      @susannicky ปีที่แล้ว

      @Olivia please how can i reach you Financial Advisor?

    • @graywilliams_77.
      @graywilliams_77. ปีที่แล้ว

      @Olivia great share, just copied and pasted her full name on my browser, thankfully her site appeared top search! she seems first-rate, her creds speak for itself..

    • @susannicky
      @susannicky ปีที่แล้ว

      @Olivia Thanks for sharing, I just looked her up online and I would say she really does have an impressive background on investing.

  • @trumansmart5223
    @trumansmart5223 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    50 percent is nothing when they went up 500 percent. We have houses listed all over az for 6 to 8 hundred thousand. And they have dropped some as much as 50k but when you check history there a 300 k house . So not really on price drop

  • @danielkurek7009
    @danielkurek7009 2 ปีที่แล้ว +56

    Really appreciate this guest and this collaboration one of the best videos I've seen in a while! They're all good but this one I think really hits home with a lot of people really great advice!

    • @pogisobakgaoganye6727
      @pogisobakgaoganye6727 2 ปีที่แล้ว +5

      My greatest concern is how to recover from all these economic and global troubles and stay afloat especially with the political power tussle going on in the US.

    • @ireneappiateng3749
      @ireneappiateng3749 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      @@pogisobakgaoganye6727 As with any big financial decision, it’s important to keep your guard up for economic risks. However, smart planning, time management and seeking advice from a financial adviser can help keep you and your money safe.

    • @grizzlygrizzle
      @grizzlygrizzle 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      I've been watching Nick for a couple of years now. His demeanor in many of his videos gets a bit "hair on fire," but he consistently presents data that are useful for making real estate decisions.

  • @lamvera4752
    @lamvera4752 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Excellent! What do you think about Canadian, especially for Vancouver and Toronto? Thanks

  • @jonmackay8380
    @jonmackay8380 2 ปีที่แล้ว +10

    Two of my favorite TH-camrs together! Both critical thinkers and data driven. Rare in today’s times!

  • @ReadySetRum
    @ReadySetRum 2 ปีที่แล้ว +10

    Honest Question: if I bought my house at $500k this year and next year it’s only worthy $400k, until I attempt to refinance, they should be no real world impact to me once I continue paying my mortgage even though I am paying for something that was overvalued?

    • @kassiekennedy1489
      @kassiekennedy1489 2 ปีที่แล้ว +4

      Like any investment the longer you plan to hold the more you can ride out the short term price fluctuations

    • @AB-fq4mr
      @AB-fq4mr 2 ปีที่แล้ว +3

      FYI if you refinance in that scenario you have to bring $100k at the closing table.

    • @yume816
      @yume816 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Yup! You may feel regret that you could’ve gotten a bigger deal had you waited but the house may not be ideal and you wasted rent plus will be paying higher interest/mortgage. It’s less about timing the market than time IN the market. Hold!

    • @joevarga5982
      @joevarga5982 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      If the purchase price is $500K and you put $100K down, if the value drops to $400K you've lost all your money if you lose your income and are forced to sell because you can't make the payments. Since you have no equity you won't have any collateral in the home so you won't be able to refinance.

  • @gbb82
    @gbb82 2 ปีที่แล้ว +5

    I just don’t see a housing crash similar to 2008….A lot of what happened then included people purchasing their homes using non-traditional mortgages such as ARM’s and income and credit falsification. Higher interest rates is slowing demand, but as the guest said the effects vary by region.

  • @smetlogik
    @smetlogik 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    Regional vs. national plays a huge part in all of this. I see people all the time talking about a housing market crash as if it's going to happen everywhere in the country. Not true.

  • @anajohnstonrealtor
    @anajohnstonrealtor 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Unfortunately with the shortage of rental housing in South Florida buyers are forced to buy as they need a roof over their heads and even with the rate increase it is cheaper for them to buy than to rent

  • @Honeybee-Hedgehog-Creative
    @Honeybee-Hedgehog-Creative 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    So how does it effect the first time buyer who is qualified and looking ? Wait or? I’m in northern Cali and prices were so high I couldn’t buy at 2020-2021 prices

  • @neighborhoodcatlady6094
    @neighborhoodcatlady6094 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    How did those low quality lows get originated? Last time we had those fly by night mortgage companies doing subprime and adjustable loans. What is happening this time?

    • @richcherwalk6349
      @richcherwalk6349 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Subprime did not cause housing crash banks tightening did, subprime was a blip and justification. As they tightened underwater homeowners walked away from their homes and prices fell more. Same thing could easily happen even worse.

  • @Kevin-gt9yq
    @Kevin-gt9yq 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Oh my goodness, definitely do another collaborative video like this again. Great questions, great content!

  • @echo3527
    @echo3527 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    Good work. I agree with Nick that its a multi year cycle with declining real estate. 2022 though I think lines up with 2006 when builders are just starting the price cuts. I bought a property from a builder in 2006 after a 15% price cut in an upscale urban center. Thought I was well protected then a nearby foreclosure dropped my value by another 20%. Had I bought further out though I knew I could be taken all the way to the cleaners. Like I did there are going to be some people who for various reasons will feel that its just their time to buy and jump in on these builder discounts. Builders will cut 10% maybe 25% but if they can't move a development will sit on inventory for 4 years instead of dropping it the 50% they need to instantly move it.
    A better play if you are going to by a house at retail is to wait until the bottom is in. The only exception to this is if you can get a dirt cheap foreclosure for like 25k or 50k on a property that is normally 175k. Actually it may be easier to pick up one of those right now as the savvy buyers wait for bottom. If we get into 2025 with a new administration and pressure to go back to 1% on the 10 year (return of the 3% rates) at that point everyone will be lining up to scoop up the deals.

  • @tomjones2348
    @tomjones2348 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Bravo! Superb interview/presentation. Nick's show are great, but this format allows a little more time to contemplate and digest what's being discussed. And, yes, in Palm Bay the word from local realtors is "Inventory is low and moving fast....you best jump on it". I'm sure there are people out there that do zero homework and assume a realtor has their best interest at heart. That's a risky thing to assume.

  • @hitmanhart22
    @hitmanhart22 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    The 2010 market scenario is not the same as of now. The social media scene and the speed of information sharing across interested parties was not there.

  • @deanweltman24
    @deanweltman24 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    A drop in sales doesn't equate to a drop in prices. Sales are down, buyers are still on the sidelines, but so is inventory compared to pre-pandemic levels. Since the beginning of December I've seen a huge surge in demand for sub-400k properties and we have put about seven people under contract in that time. We are in the DFW area, and if you wait here you will miss your last best chance for a decent deal on an affordable home. Good luck!

  • @daviddaugherty1011
    @daviddaugherty1011 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    I've been renting in various cities along the east coast for 27 years. From Florida to South Carolina to Massachusetts. Never in my life have I seen rents go down. Always up. I would have to see rent go down with my eyes to believe it.

  • @ManInTheBigHat
    @ManInTheBigHat 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    Aug 26th 2022 - Powell just announced further rate hikes and the stock market slid quickly. Housing prices need to follow.

  • @bob.popular
    @bob.popular 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Regular Wealthion viewer here. I appreciate the balance Adam typically displays, but in this video both Adam and Nick seem to be borderline giddy about the prospect of a housing crash. Although I’m sure that wasn’t the intent, I would encourage both to keep in mind that the things they’re discussing will be extremely painful for a large number of people. Otherwise, keep up the good work!

    • @bobwhite9248
      @bobwhite9248 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      I am in the process of building a house, out of pocket, and seeing the cost of materials skyrocket. I cannot imagine the cost of a house in the future

  • @JohnDoe-kb9sj
    @JohnDoe-kb9sj 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    From, 5:15, how many of those, "two-thirds homeowners", own more of their house than their lenders do and, how many of these actually live in the home and aren't just renting it out(all-cash institutional buyers and such)? How many have been using what equity that they have in their homes to borrow against it(home ATMs)? How many of these homeowners are confidant that they will still have their job in a recession?

  • @jayneweaver8695
    @jayneweaver8695 2 ปีที่แล้ว +21

    Love seeing Nick on Wealthion again, he's hands down the best real estate youtuber! Great content, thank you very much for all of the generous information, both Nick and Wealthion are both super giving on their respective channels.

    • @AngieRTaylor
      @AngieRTaylor 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      So perfectly stated! Nick is so generous with his info and somehow, delivers the current ‘not so great’ economic news with his own special sense of humor. I’m happy that I found Wealthion’s channel, too (thanks to Nick doing this collaborative video with him).

    • @TheBoogienation11
      @TheBoogienation11 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      He's not. He's been wrong for 1.5-2 years.... And now that housing is FINALLY starting to move, "he called it!!"

    • @lyleburlingame2276
      @lyleburlingame2276 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@TheBoogienation11 hahaha so true. He’s also a renter and doesn’t own real estate. You gonna wait for him to tell you when to buy in 2027?! He litteraly puts a panic button in the image on his videos. Such a FUD master

  • @cindyonyoutube
    @cindyonyoutube 2 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    Awesome collab! I really appreciate how content-rich this conversation is, with so much valuable data & guidance.

    • @susannicky
      @susannicky ปีที่แล้ว

      After selling a couple homes in 2022, I'm anticipating a housing crisis in order to buy inexpensively. As a backup plan, I've been thinking about purchasing stocks. What recommendations do you have for the best time to buy? On the one hand, I keep reading and seeing trader earnings of over $500k each week. On the other side, I keep hearing that the market is out of control and experiencing a dead cat bounce. Why does this happen?

    • @graywilliams_77.
      @graywilliams_77. ปีที่แล้ว

      @@susannicky The top experts, however, have access to confidential information and data that is not made available to the broader public. Being knowledgeable enough to use them successfully is quite another. Big returns, not changing stochastics, are the key. Rewards and risks must be balanced. To reach your aim, pick the right size and turn your edge as often as necessary.

    • @susannicky
      @susannicky ปีที่แล้ว

      I require suggestions on how to restore my portfolio and create more effective strategies in light of the huge declines. Where can I locate this instructor?

  • @xx420xSt0n3rxxSwagxx
    @xx420xSt0n3rxxSwagxx 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    no mention on land which is arguably more important here, thanks again

  • @kbkatherineb3944
    @kbkatherineb3944 2 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    Nick is an outstanding analyst and I have been watching him for awhile. Please have him again!

  • @ronloyd4891
    @ronloyd4891 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    Adam - Great questions. However, Nick did not answer maybe the most important question about a 20% reduction in price being no big deal. We also watch Nick's channel. Prices where we are have gone up 20% per year for at least the last 3 or 4 years! Prices would need to decrease by 50% to make any difference.

  • @internaloptometrist2702
    @internaloptometrist2702 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    I am curious, I will be ready to buy my first home next summer. It seems like trends are indicative that prices will deflate some by then. Will that be a good time to buy? I know rates will be higher, but I only plan I stay in this home/mortgage for a few years then sell and move or refi. Good plan?

  • @JCBinder7
    @JCBinder7 2 ปีที่แล้ว +29

    This is WORLD-CLASS content. I already subscribe to Nick’s channel - Reventure Consulting - and I’m now subscribed to Wealthion.
    Its refreshing to see honest and accurate conversation about a topic thats been so obvious to me for the past 18 months. Thanks guys!

    • @AngieRTaylor
      @AngieRTaylor 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      Perfectly said! I watch every single one of Nick’s videos and now, am subscribed to Wealthion’s channel, too.

    • @BellyLaugher
      @BellyLaugher 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      'Wish this kind of info-brain-synthesis was obvious to me!!!! Hope you grok & enjoy what a wonderful brain you got!

  • @thealternativecontrarian9936
    @thealternativecontrarian9936 2 ปีที่แล้ว +4

    I love these collaberation videos with you two. Both present really interesting ideas.

  • @arkzyFn8
    @arkzyFn8 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Re: Zillow estimates. In AZ, the listed price is almost more than the zestimate. Sellers are greeedy

  • @BigBfromUC
    @BigBfromUC ปีที่แล้ว

    Depends on where you live… Charlotte area is booming! Only thing that will slow this area down is lack of infrastructure!

  • @MissLibertarian
    @MissLibertarian 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    Math: A 10% increase in price, followed by a 10% decrease example: $100,000 x 10% = $10,000. Added together, is $110,000. $110,000 x 10% = $11,000. So a 10% increase is $10k and a 10% decrease to that new value is a decrease of $11,000. If it's a million dollar house add a zero before the decimal.

  • @robs9324
    @robs9324 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    Houses in my area are still sky high. No dropping in price here

  • @sdw600
    @sdw600 2 ปีที่แล้ว +19

    Wow ! Love both of you guys ! Watch Nick regularly as he has nailed every prediction !
    Thanks to both of you for the wealth of information……

  • @nthenwhat8912
    @nthenwhat8912 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    High quality stuff, thanks. Subscribed to both, long ago. 👍

  • @Sk8somedays
    @Sk8somedays 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    Great content. Love reventure and now I found another great source of information.

  • @rdlouzau8752
    @rdlouzau8752 2 ปีที่แล้ว +5

    Awesome interview Adam ☕️⚘️

  • @hardliners57
    @hardliners57 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    I liked the pivot to positivity. Good conversation. As always, I appreciate the content.

  • @eleanorponder278
    @eleanorponder278 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    How about the effect of mass layoffs in the tech industry on housing pricing? Most tech jobs are highly compensated. They are hard to replace.

  • @aedr04
    @aedr04 2 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    For renters who are waiting out for the housing crash, would you also recommend them going for continuous short term leases until then, in order to fully take advantage of the parallel rent market crash as well?

  • @armchairqb2000
    @armchairqb2000 ปีที่แล้ว

    I do not see it happening. Every county has raised property taxes based on the current level. It will never be allowed to correct.

  • @GoAgainstTheOdds
    @GoAgainstTheOdds 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    Definitely always enjoy discussions between you and nick, looking forward to future ones, great video!

  • @DMill791
    @DMill791 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    That's no lie on quality of payments etc. Have a friend that makes sub 50K a year who was trying to purchase a home for 200k+(not worth it over-priced tiny house in economically poor area), priced based off inflated zillow prices. Someone bid cash and got the house she was going for. But GD, what are you doing!?

  • @PhysicsNative
    @PhysicsNative 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Interest rates aren’t the real problem, we had much higher mortgage rates in the 70-90s. Development cost are staggering, if those resources can be attained, and wages have not kept up with inflation.

  • @Rogcljon
    @Rogcljon 2 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    Great interview, I did wonder if the 5 year peak to trough would be as likely to hold true in an inflationary period. Possibly I thought the decline maybe faster or equally if costs and possibly wages, for those with jobs, did rise would that offset the drop in nominal terms from the peak ?

    • @rogerm3708
      @rogerm3708 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      Reventure is putting the trough at early 2025. I believe it will be early 2026

    • @BellyLaugher
      @BellyLaugher 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@rogerm3708 If U can spare the time, what makes you draw the 'early 2026' vs 2025 conclusion? ?Thanks very much.

    • @rogerm3708
      @rogerm3708 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@BellyLaugher Nature deaths are expected to peak about that time, Birth rates may keep dropping and I believe this will be a deeper fall than the last one

    • @BellyLaugher
      @BellyLaugher 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @@rogerm3708 thanks!

  • @lisas44
    @lisas44 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    Curious if this applies to land too.

  • @jivepatrol6833
    @jivepatrol6833 2 ปีที่แล้ว +7

    I look forward to a downturn in housing so I can buy even more homes with cash and rent out. I agree with the guest, that in the Midwest, homes in the area selling below replacement cost, are not wildly over valued. When companies and individuals are highly levered - they are "weak hands" and need to get "cashed out". They will and that is where real investors step in as "buyers of last resort". I have lived through many boom/bust cycles over the past 50+ years and single family homes will always be a good investment when bought at a discount (after a crash/correction). Not only is the asset class a good inflation hedge but the "product" is an absolute necessity. Housing certainly is cyclical but when the Fed does pivot and interest rates start coming down - buyers come back in - without fail. Real estate is only one asset class and it pays to diversify.

    • @jimbobarooney2861
      @jimbobarooney2861 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      In the last crash house prices fell alongside interest rates falling, there was no buyers, there was no credit,

    • @jivepatrol6833
      @jivepatrol6833 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      @@jimbobarooney2861 - I know. I had cash and bought hand over fist and named my prices in each and every case to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, HUD and others.... It was wonderful.

    • @seancfrancis592
      @seancfrancis592 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      Unfortunately, for the vast majority of renters who didn't have the money to invest in a home, despite their best efforts to save diligently for one, its now even more challenging, given the insanely over priced values, along with much higher interest rates, and sadly, that scenario doesn't look like its going to go away anytime soon. The prices have gone up so much drastically over the past several years, that even with a significant price correction during the current down cycle, the prices will never get back down to where they're affordable for most current renters. And, of course, it doesn't help when you've got big Wallstreet investors that are allowed by their with deep pockets who are going to be scooping up most of the 'more affordable' SFR homes when prices do eventually come part way down to earth, making it nearly impossible for the average renter to compete for those very same homes. I'm not a socialist, but I'm not an elitist, either ... it's more than high time for government to step in to curb the greed of Wall Street investors to make the playing field more level for the masses! 🙏🏻

  • @randygee9010
    @randygee9010 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    Expecting our apartment rent here in Tacoma, WA to start going back down. Our 1 bedroom is $1482 per month and we pay utilities.

  • @drajdew1664
    @drajdew1664 2 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    20 percent decline would do absolutely nothing to affordability.
    Home prices are too high and needs to go 40 percent or more high.

    • @RH-lg9uc
      @RH-lg9uc 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      This is the problem, a 20% decline basically gets people back to their purchase price. Hoping for a 40% crash has only happened once in history.

    • @frusciantesplectrum7980
      @frusciantesplectrum7980 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@RH-lg9uc I’m not sure about America… but in uk, the building materials have gone up 18% along with rising interest rates…. I doubt they will drop too drastically as houses aren’t going to be built to break even or make a loss…. I imagine it will a global recession but due to the large demand of houses along with building materials and interest rates… 25% should be considered mega.

  • @MichaelHarrington17
    @MichaelHarrington17 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    It's not obvious how many recent homeowners were dependent on borrowing rates. If they bought/refi'd in 2020-early21, they already have a 3% 30 year loan. More recent buyers have been using all cash. The only thing that forces people to default on their mortgages is a big hit to income, so a crash depends on unemployment trends and regional layoffs. Zillow, of course, is phony prices based on the rearview mirror. The problem with price adjustments is mostly psychological as people refuse to sell. I would say the canary in the coal mine is the developers needing to carry their existing builds if buyers balk. When they go broke, we'll know this time is different, or rather back to normal. If the Fed and the banks save the developers again, all bets are off.

  • @MrAlanKendall
    @MrAlanKendall 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    Real estate almost always drops September through January. 2022 closed up, so no correction yet.

  • @RoyalKennedy601
    @RoyalKennedy601 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    Idk a couple yrs ago I used to rent a condo in Florida for 2600 a month during winter . Today the same unit they are asking 4500-5000 ! I said good keep it . How bad do the prices of goods and services n have to get before people just start saying no ?

  • @mattstensland2669
    @mattstensland2669 2 ปีที่แล้ว +7

    Love the collaboration. Have been watching both you guys separately for the past 9 months. Those were great questions for Nick along with some very wise responses. I've got a core group of about six finance channels that I watch religiously, and you guys are both on that list.

  • @sallyannedeegan4302
    @sallyannedeegan4302 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    What do you say about New England/Boston

  • @rom4486
    @rom4486 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    Is this apply for Canada ??

  • @josemena7644
    @josemena7644 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    Great Collab!!!
    Loved it!!
    Great interview and overall content.
    Respect

  • @jbru8725
    @jbru8725 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    Adam, when you say mainly top 10% of wealth own stocks, don’t forget 401Ks (or superannuation as we call it in Australia)

    • @richcherwalk6349
      @richcherwalk6349 2 ปีที่แล้ว

      Even when you include 401k's you're still only talking 30% of population. It's that 30% is how the 1% get away with murder because they have 30% held hostage to their fortunes.

  • @Sandpaint
    @Sandpaint 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    I dont agree with your assessment, though the real estate value was higher the last couple years, the mortgage interest rate was so low @ ~2.75%+ - for 30 years. Buyers were enjoying the low rate, their monthly payment is low, so, the 2007 phenomenal is most likely not going to repeat here. You are only correct that the real estate market is slowing down because the housing is unaffordable to new buyers due to high interest rate.

  • @DBEdwards
    @DBEdwards 2 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    I really enjoy your show. I LOVE the relaxed and civil tone here. Very professional and insightful. BTW, I say a fifty percent discount on housing in our future

  • @vm-bz1cd
    @vm-bz1cd 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    SUPERB GUEST and Interview 👏👏👏

  • @GovernmentAcid
    @GovernmentAcid 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    Love this video, but you should really have "Reventure Consulting" in the title somewhere, since that's the name that a big chunk of his following know him by.
    I watch him all the time & would love to see more people see this interview!

  • @MTVessel61446
    @MTVessel61446 2 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    Great collaboration! Do more.

  • @paulc.3333
    @paulc.3333 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Crashing home prices may be a boon to homeowners’ whose rent expense is the property tax tributes.

  • @BlueWaterSTAX
    @BlueWaterSTAX 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Nick is very sharp. Thanks again Adam and Wealthion. We appreciate the amazing interviews.
    Hard assets ASAP guys 🥈🏅🥈🏅🥈🏅😀👍

  • @gustavis85
    @gustavis85 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    It’s not going to take 3-5 years to see crash level pricing in real estate. Prices went up 30% in 2 years and they always decrease at a faster rate.

  • @cjAMC
    @cjAMC 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    Awesome video and information. Please make sure to have Nick back!!

  • @slowdivr2
    @slowdivr2 2 ปีที่แล้ว +4

    This was a great episode! As a mortgage advisor, I’m always looking at how to help my clients navigate their wealth building journey. Nick is a pro with the data. Thank you for having him on!

  • @tonymanos9500
    @tonymanos9500 2 ปีที่แล้ว +5

    Great stuff Adam!!

  • @goldlotus7831
    @goldlotus7831 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    More investors bought homes and condos in the last 2-3 years to rent them out at exorbitant rates. That left out many from the housing market and caused the artificial rise in home values. Homes in northern Virginia are horrendously priced,very very high while many there have a median salary of less than 70k. Can you tell us if N. Virginia homes will see a free fall in home prices? Again, investors should not be allowed to scoop unlimited number of homes. Set a limit on that . Stop the greed so that hard working people don't have to rent forever .

  • @Sandwichking-hikes
    @Sandwichking-hikes 2 ปีที่แล้ว

    I live in my house and hope to for many years, the price going up and down over a couple years doesn’t really matter to me, I don’t cash out equity

  • @topkilla41
    @topkilla41 2 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Great interview... big up to Nick his videos are amazing.

  • @humansareokay6870
    @humansareokay6870 2 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    Lots of people Refi'd their properties at low-interest rates over the past two years and pulled out their equity to buy crypto, stocks and second/third homes. So now, similar to new buyers, they've got higher payments and will be underwater, too. So my guess is the problem is much bigger than it would seem (bigger than 15%).