SECRETS Wall Street Doesn't Want You To Know: LIQUIDITY is Coming!
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 6 ส.ค. 2024
- 🔥 Get FREE ACCESS to Real Vision rvtv.io/3U1GFAD. It's time for a liquidity masterclass with Michael Howell. Raoul's Everything Code thesis suggests that liquidity is the biggest driver of asset prices across both macro and crypto. Today for all viewers, he welcomes the industry's foremost liquidity expert Michael Howell, founder and CEO of CrossBorder Capital, where global money flows are headed, how this impacts markets, and whether it could push us into the next "Banana Zone." Recorded on June 24, 2024.
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Sponsor: Token2049 event in Singapore
00:51 - Importance of subscribing and engaging with the channel
01:19 - Raoul Pal introduces his show "The Journeyman"
01:52 - Overview of Raoul Pal's "Everything Code" thesis
02:26 - Explanation of the debt refi cycle and liquidity's role
03:01 - Discussion with Mike Howell on liquidity
03:38 - Mike Howell's background and framework on liquidity
05:17 - Evolution of global liquidity concept
07:27 - Current liquidity frameworks and key metrics
10:39 - Dominance of liquidity in markets since the mid-2000s
12:13 - Correlation between global liquidity and market performance
15:11 - Importance of term premium and its impact on bond markets
17:14 - Liquidity's effect on P/E ratios and market dynamics
18:17 - Central banks' role in maintaining liquidity and managing debt
21:22 - Differentiating between monetary inflation and deflation crises
23:22 - The significance of debt refinancing in financial crises
25:38 - Various sources of liquidity in the US
27:39 - Treasury General Account and its impact on liquidity
28:42 - Discussion on the dollar milkshake theory and dollar strength
31:45 - China's role and challenges in the global liquidity landscape
33:52 - Janet Yellen's strategies to add liquidity
36:04 - Potential impact of Fannie Mae's changes on liquidity
39:28 - Challenges faced by China's economy and the need for liquidity
41:30 - Basel 4 and its implications for banks and bond markets
43:36 - Europe's green energy transition and its impact on liquidity
44:32 - Potential risks and opportunities in the French banking sector
45:00 - Likelihood of central banks using their balance sheets
46:38 - Forecast for the liquidity cycle in the next few years
50:44 - Prospects for risk assets in a sluggish economy
51:20 - Expected peak of the liquidity cycle and underlying trends
56:03 - Historical parallels with post-World War II debt cycles
57:01 - Necessity of liquidity for economic stability and growth
59:09 - Central banks' understanding of the global debt situation
1:00:05 - Importance of monitoring liquidity and potential future trends
Connect with me:
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Instagram: / raoulgmi
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Newsletter: raoulpal.substack.com
My other work:
Real Vision: rvtv.io/3LHYIaH
Global Macro Investor: globalmacroinvestor.com
EXPAAM: expaam.com
Disclaimer: media.realvision.com/wp/20231...
#raoulpal #crypto #macro #liquidity #realvision #michaelhowell #macroeconomics #macroeconomia #financialeducation #financialmarkets #financialfreedom #financialplanning #financialliteracy
🔥 Get FREE ACCESS to Real Vision rvtv.io/3MMeRfQ
00:00 - Sponsor: Token2049 event in Singapore
00:51 - Importance of subscribing and engaging with the channel
01:19 - Raoul Pal introduces his show "The Journeyman"
01:52 - Overview of Raoul Pal's "Everything Code" thesis
02:26 - Explanation of the debt refi cycle and liquidity's role
03:01 - Discussion with Mike Howell on liquidity
03:38 - Mike Howell's background and framework on liquidity
05:17 - Evolution of global liquidity concept
07:27 - Current liquidity frameworks and key metrics
10:39 - Dominance of liquidity in markets since the mid-2000s
12:13 - Correlation between global liquidity and market performance
15:11 - Importance of term premium and its impact on bond markets
17:14 - Liquidity's effect on P/E ratios and market dynamics
18:17 - Central banks' role in maintaining liquidity and managing debt
21:22 - Differentiating between monetary inflation and deflation crises
23:22 - The significance of debt refinancing in financial crises
25:38 - Various sources of liquidity in the US
27:39 - Treasury General Account and its impact on liquidity
28:42 - Discussion on the dollar milkshake theory and dollar strength
31:45 - China's role and challenges in the global liquidity landscape
33:52 - Janet Yellen's strategies to add liquidity
36:04 - Potential impact of Fannie Mae's changes on liquidity
39:28 - Challenges faced by China's economy and the need for liquidity
41:30 - Basel 4 and its implications for banks and bond markets
43:36 - Europe's green energy transition and its impact on liquidity
44:32 - Potential risks and opportunities in the French banking sector
45:00 - Likelihood of central banks using their balance sheets
46:38 - Forecast for the liquidity cycle in the next few years
50:44 - Prospects for risk assets in a sluggish economy
51:20 - Expected peak of the liquidity cycle and underlying trends
56:03 - Historical parallels with post-World War II debt cycles
57:01 - Necessity of liquidity for economic stability and growth
59:09 - Central banks' understanding of the global debt situation
1:00:05 - Importance of monitoring liquidity and potential future trends
thank you for time stamps!!
Here for the hopium
Same, much needed brotha
oh yeah, this latest sell off has been the most dramatic my time being in
The dips from 14k back to 6k was much worse. Also the 3k double bottom was nasty. Although it was a similar feel.
Stayed for the education
Much needed after those downward spiral fireworks on July 4th!
Michael is 2 steps ahead of most talking heads. Clever and forward looking. Zoomed out, yet present. Excellent!
78 gg. P
..b v😅😮😮😮😮😢😮😢😢😢😢😢😮😮😮😮😮😮😮😮😮😮😮😮😮😢😮😅😢😮😮😮😢😮 nm. . Ml. B
Pp. M.7 . ..nm... g 😅😅😅. M. Nm
Absolutely fantastic. What a fountain of economic knowledge Michael is. Thoroughly enjoyed this one
Glad you enjoyed it!
@@RaoulPalTJM Maybe include three (3) bullet points summarizing the reality & conclusions w/ each video?
Working with professionals who have expertise and experience in the market can provide valuable insights and guidance to navigate volatile times. Thanks alot for this insight.
Certainly can provide personalized insights and help align your strategy with your goals.
Vanguard VTI. You can count on a net 9% with a reasonable standard deviation of 15 to 17%. Start early, be consistent and the miracle of compound growth will take over.
Use time as the real basis of growth...it takes about 5 years.
It's also essential to conduct thorough research, consider the long-term outlook of the companies, and diversify your investments to manage risk effectively.
the problem is that most don't have the knowledge needed to succeed in a challenging market. Only highly qualified professionals who had to experience the 2008 financial crisis could hope to earn a high in these challenging conditions.
the strategies for diversification into other commodities are quite rigorous for the regular-Joe. As a matter of fact, they are mostly successfully carried out by pros who have had a great deal of skills and knowledge
Came for the hopium, 11:33 stayed for the KNOWLEDGE 😊 !!!
Howell is the only person on RV who has been right about the market direction for the last 3-4yrs (Steno is another but with a bit lower accuracy). All other folks on RV are basically same as cramer.
Exactly
Cramer?
This was a great interview, a must to listen to. I’m on my 3rd time
Can we all pitch in and get Michael an external microphone?
Go for it.
No for real. He's speaking to us from 2005, about 2025.
😂
Let’s get him Temu app, maybe he’ll win a coupon and get one great mic for $3 + $45 of other junk.
Sorry Raoul but Michael is the absolute GOAT.
It sounds like we have a Liquidity Super Cycle forming
2 veterans with a collective 85 years or so of experience. Just amazing
What a timing and what a guest. you are the man Raoul. we are in-debt to you. Hats off
Why do people feel the need to speak for others?
Another fantastic contribution to the space from RV. We learn when we listen - this is worth the listen.
There is knowledge and experience. Experience is linked to time. These two gents have bucket fulls of time in the game and therefore the experience gained is invaluable. Fantastic .
U.S. Manufacturing PMI is at 48.5. It has declined each month for the last 3 months.
Thanks for reiterating why value investing is dead (SPYV is perfectly fine) but picking individual value stocks led me to value traps.
Liquidity inflow ✅
That was great interview
Thank you so much for watching and for your kind words!
@@RaoulPalTJM Thank you for your hard work. one Q: ISM is the 1-United States ISM Manufacturing PMI or 2- PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX ? thanke you
Certainly Raoul / Howell makes it easy to stay in crypto on dumps.
Dump = retracement. It's a standard part of ALL markets. Just it's a higher % in crypto
Absolutely! Voice of reason
Awesome analysis presented in such a clear and understandable manner by 2 amazingly intelligent and perceptive men….thank you both!
Thank you so much for bringing clarity into whats going on and really driving the markets.
Start early with diversified investments in stocks, bonds, and real estate. Maximize contributions to tax-advantaged accounts like 401(k)s and IRAs. Regularly review and adjust your strategy to ensure security.
Great interview. Covers so much I’ll need to listen to this a few times. Thanks
Can you please share where exactly can we find data about PBOC liquidity injections?
Amazing! Great emphasis on how the current 4 year cycle is necessary to refinance debt.
A but complicated to follow. Just some feednacl @rv how to simplify for the layman? Can we get a summary of takeaways at the end or something?
12m16s: Raoul asks Michael straight-up if [Michael] ever gets frustrated with the "mid-curvers" who claim global liquidity is bunk. Great question, Raoul! Loved Michael's response. Spot on.
Super interesting. This liquidity is everything.
As the FED and the Treasury change their approaches to injecting liquidity, it’s really helpful to understand the timing and what the alternatives will be. Thank you Raoul and Michael!
when MEWN? 🌔
lovely talk!
Great video. There are always great insights but don't really do much better financially then before. Still entertaining to watch and great insights from the guests.
Really amazing. It's difficult to believe that's been so easy to invest. But it's not easy to not mid curve it. Dftu, don't midcurve
Raoul - phenomenal value as always. Thanks for all you do!
Outstanding discussion
Super discussion.
This was an incredible video. Thank you both, awesome.
Buying 10 year Treasury Bills as we speak, nah ill just back crypto thank you very much!
Thanks RP for creating a platform for high level discussion ❤
Inverse banana so far
Lol
On what time scale? Did you get into Crypto in 2024
😂
😂
Outstanding stuff. Loved it
When are you coming to Perth?
🥇🙏
Thank you! ❤❤❤
bombastic thnks a lot.
Absolutely THE best podcast I've seen in a long time.
Great show thx Raoul!
why not show the different watches via tagging(?) on the video timeline?
Brilliant....
Listening closely to you. You’re a crypto rock star.
THANKS Raoul and Michael!
Appreciate your support, glad you enjoyed the video!
How about the long & variable lags?
Excellent! Thank you
This guest is brilliant! Thank you Raoul for bringing such talent on the show!
What id TGA and liquidity drags the greenback down, then the OIL price shoots up and inflation comes back? How that is going to affect the interest rate cuts? Also, what if before the liquidity shooting higher we get into a recession in the US with spillover effects across global economy? Also OECD YoY 3-month MA has started rolling down for China and other developed economies. M1 has started turning up on a YoY basis, but China hasn’t participated so far. China Total Social Financing also still hasn’t turned up. Is China waiting for the FED to cut to start stimulating?
Thank you Raoul and Michael. Another for keeps video. Save and Bookmark this!
Great job as always Pal! Love to have liquidity updates a quarterly thing 😊❤
Thanks both ❤
I'm not sure if it is true (29:00), but if it is, isn't it part of the so called Triffin paradox?
Great piece!
Thank you 🙏🏾
2nd 😎
Appreciate the information sehr
My day gets better when Raoul post a video
wow 🔥
13% sell off overnight. Fear at its height. Sounds like BTC is a lead for the economy slowing, fed cutting and pumping and then crypto flying
Bitcoin, not crypto. Learning why will be beneficial to you.
For clarity it’s not a “second mortgage” it’s an increase in Mortgage limit, which can be used and paid back at will…. If the USA does this it will be huge, furthermore most of EU does not allow this type of home equity redraw, if / when they do the amount of capital locked up in generational property is €tn’s it will fund entrepreneurship and will be enormous
Great video
Hi not a bot, but this is one for the history books, great ep!
Glad you enjoy it!
So, the S&P will continue to rise through the end of 2024, regardless of what the charts are saying?
RAOUL has it down
HODL
Cool heads prevail
The Vematum ecosystem is top-notch. Can't wait to see it grow!
Great listen
The bananas must flow.
Amazing deep dive into liquidity. Thanks Raoul!!
You got it!
Awesome. I'm really beliver in that...
You can almost hear Christine Lagarde's voice saying " Clever Men" while taking a sip of Tea lol
Don’t fight against the price action
fantastic duo
Thank you!
That was mega
Biggest lesson i've learnt in 2024 in the stock market is that nobody knows what is going to happen next, so practice some humility and follow a strategy with a long term edge.
Nobody knows anything; You need to create your own process, manage risk, and stick to the plan, through thick or thin, While also continuously learning from mistakes and improving.
❤
Brilliant! Thanks for this, Raoul. Brrrrrrrrrrr.
GM from The Real World by tate. Raoul Pal is a true G
Absolute master class 👏 Thank you both ❤️🔥🙏🫶
I'm glad you enjoyed the video!
WAIT FOR THE LIQUIDITY YOU PHILISTINES 🚀🚀🚀
What does philistines mean? 😂
Thank you for watching and for your comment!
Why are you yelling?
😂
👌
Watch Steve Hanke on the Quantity Theory of Money. You sound like a monetarist.
Thanks guys/gals!
What's the correlation, if any? (50:35) And if 'strong' correlation (what is strong, by the way?), which of the two is a leading indicator, with or without causality? It could be applicable information, regardless of causality, if only the correlation is strong enough.
No way is this guys name More Cowbell, so epic
Thanks!
You need to interview Jeff Booth..
🐐🐐
Great stream gents
What do you think about Eurodollars?
Raoul, if this debt refi cycle has been there every 4-5 yrs for the last 100 years, why havent markets always one up forever? Look at the markets in 1940s, 50s, 60s, 70s, 200s....markets have 0 return for 10-15 years many times.....only after 2008 did we see a secular markets go up
Brilliant guys