Please make one episode on Indian judiciary system, number of pending cases, average days required to get justice. And some valuable suggestions to improve it. Courts must be 24×7(in 3 shifs of 8 hours) to solve the problem(are they under essential service like police and doctors )
YES! If there is anything that needs quicker and massive reforms, it is the lethargic Indian judiciary. Can't believe Indian courts still have summer vacation! A tradition left over by Angrezi lords, our Brown sahibs are still happy to carry on.
Judicial reform will have the most impact on making India better governed. Sue the municipalities to do a good job. It can be a game changer for cities atleast
Our future depends more on how well we save our environment rather than several other factors. We hope to save our wildlife, our forests, our swamps, our deserts and our snow mountains. Over-constructing and redesigning Mother Earth would be at our peril.
Sekharji, pl do not underrate the importance of changes in demographics. It is true that overall population rise is coming down overall as well as among different communities as well. But, still the rise of Muslim population is higher than Hindus. The change of demographics due to change in organic population rise, conversions and illegal immigration is a cause of concern to maintain peace and security in the country. This I feel should not be underestimated.
that is a bullshit claim unsubstantiated by data. The REAL difference in fertility rates is that between Hindi speakers (especially UP, Bihar, Rajasthan) and non Hindi Speakers. That difference is far more significant than that between Hindus and Muslims, and if this trend continues, West Bengal and Southern States would be overwhelmed by Hindi speakers.
Of course we have to insert a communal angle to everything. The difference in TFR is completely explained by poverty. That is why countries in subsaharan africa have higher TFR. The much bigger risk over having too much population is actually having too little population.
@@ssam00 and there would be nothing wrong with that. Also, the growth rates will switch around during that process so that you can't really decide which way the final situation looks. The reason the hindi heartland has more children is that they are simply poorer. They will become less poor over time due to development, and TFR will correspondingly fall.
@@rohitshrivastava4742 Fertility rate is still much higher amongst Muslims and is just a part of it. Conversions, illegal immigration, land jihad, targeted killings and terrorism are all equally important.
Shekharji, interesting analysis. However, you mixed up the units of measurement at many places. I strongly suggest that you start using a teleprompter for such numbers heavy episodes
its our cities that r experiencing population explosion. otherwise our rural areas r getting empty. issue is unplanned urbanisation. bengaluru, pune, amdavad-gnagar, chennai r not built to hold 1 cr ppl each. so much population in a city results in wasting thousands of crores on metro lines. solution is to open i.t firms branch offices and offer allied services in tier 3 cities to reduce youth migration.
Its not population but higher growth among a particular community is the real problem..In last 30/40 years many districts have become either almost Hindu Free or Hindu minority..Namely 11 districts out of 27 districts in Assam, 7/8 Border districts of West Bengal, many border districts of UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, Entire North Kerala, Even a district in Haryana and many more. So dont mislead.
@@hemu7352 faster pace theory takes the inspiration only from the last one or two census. In statistics, only two data points do not reflect any permanent trend. Even then percentage of Muslim population is still increasing , just the rate of increase has reduced. And you dont need whole country to be Muslim majority, just few states and districts are enough( examples Pak, Bangladesh, Kashmir) ...and that is what exactly happened in last 30 years...Lower Assam, and large portion of Middle Assam, All border districts of Bengal, Bihar and Jharkhand, UP Nepal border districts, North Kerala districts, Border districts of Rajasthan have already become Muslim majority or on the verge of becoming Muslim majority which were Hindu majority 4/5 decades back.
For INDIA problem is not that it ll be 200 crore or 109 crore. Problem is one community is on population rampage which ll change demography of nation and it ll be threat to Hindus and Nation..
It is not rocket science to deduce this result, what with the fertility rate nearing the replacement rate. But the elephant in the room, which no one speaks of is the composition of the population. While the average fertility rate of other religious groups have already reached the replacement rate of 2.1, the Muslim population has a fertility rate significantly more. Following the falling curve, the population of other religious groups will fall below the replacement rate, while the Muslim population will continue to increase as a percentage of the total population. So what will be the composition of different religious groups as a percentage of the total population, in 2048, and 2100?
Look mr/ms if you wanna continue on dumbfounded illogical hate go on I mean if there are high iq people there should be low IQ people at the end of the day but if you wanna stay factual let's get into some facts . According to the govts sources nfhs data released in May 2022 . The fertility rate of muslims has seen the sharpest decline since 1994 . Here the stats 1994-4.1 2004-3.4 2015-2.6 2022-2.3 Now for Hindus It was in 1992-3.2 Now in 2022-2.0 What's even more shocking that the rate of difference is now very close in the 1990's it was almost a child difference now it's almost the same. A record 46.5% decline in Muslim fertility highest in any religion . Source- nfhs-5 And one more fact in 1941 when British India had a survey conducted about the population known as census today Muslims made 25% of India's population. In 1951- it fell to 9% Now it's at 14% . So it's still lesser than 1941 . One more fact between 1950-1990 more Hindus were born than total Muslims ever lived in indian subcontinent . - a logical Brahmin trying to counter politically motivated hindu muslim bigotry
@@bloodwargaming3662 Cutting through all the initial crap that you posted, here are the facts taken from your figures. In 1941 India was undivided, while in 1951, the population figures were only from the divided India. The present fertility rate of 2.0 for other groups is below the replacement rate of 2.1and this results in declining population,while the same for Muslims is 2.3 at present. The difference of 0.3 might seem innocuous, but viewed from a large enough base contributes significantly. My take was on the population composition as a percentage, and not by numbers. This is a big difference, and proves that you are not the logical Brahmin, you claim to be. It might be difficult initially, but with effort, you might understand the difference. Slowly, slowly, catchi monkey, what?
@@ocs748 nothing i posted is crap all is facts and without numbers how are you talking about composition lmao 😂😂 and you are calling me a monkey. I also think due to your ignorance you didn't even read my paragraph properly .i have clearly mentioned how the huge gap during the 1990's between muslim and hindu fertility rate has now almost come to same rate . 1994-3.3 to 4.2 now it's . 1.94 to 2.3 . Difference has been seen so has development.
@@bloodwargaming3662 At the outset let me assure you, that you were not called a monkey. It is a very common phrase, and it says that with patience and persistence even a difficult task can be accomplished. You can google it up for conformation. As far as the figures are concerned, I have use your figures. In 1941 census the Muslim population was 25% of Undivided India, while after partition it was 7%, by 1951 census. Now the muslims form above 18% of the population. At present there is still a difference of 0.3 in the fertility rate of other religious groups and the Muslims. The replacement fertility rate is 2.1, so in effect the Muslim population growth as a percentage of the total will be higher, and they will form a higher % of the population in 2048, and also in 2100. It is difficult to deconstruct this, but please try, the result will be most satisfying.
Sir what about the demographics of the Muslims vs Hindus. Owaisi and other leaders have excel sheet calculations that show that Hindus will be less than Muslims in 2050. Is there any data on this aspect ?
There are studies in fact that says those numbers are false. The worst I have seen projects Hindu population to dip to 66% and then it will stabilize around this number.
Going by the growth rate of both communities, I think a reasonable projection is Muslims might form 30-35% and Hindus 55-70% in 2100, if the govt at least proceeds with the delayed 2021 census we will have much better data to understand.
One of the biggest misconception about population dynamic in India is that boogeyman of Muslims growing faster than Hindus. Yes Muslims do have higher fertility rates but the REAL difference in fertility rates is that between Hindi speakers (especially UP, Bihar, Rajasthan) and non Hindi Speakers. That difference is far more significant than that between Hindus and Muslims, and if this trend continues, West Bengal, Maharashtra and Southern States would be overwhelmed by Hindi speakers.
Export of labor in the age of AI, automation, robotics??? When technological adoption is rapidly increasing, how delusional are experts. Technological unemployment has arrived. Population would be the burden in coming ages.
But sir what I had learnt from a population cut the clutter before was that India is growing at the rate of 2 but now you say it is 2.4 . Which one is right ?
One of the biggest misconception about population dynamic in India is that boogeyman of Muslims growing faster than Hindus. Yes Muslims do have higher fertility rates but the REAL difference in fertility rates is that between Hindi speakers (especially UP, Bihar, Rajasthan) and non Hindi Speakers. That difference is far more significant than that between Hindus and Muslims, and if this trend continues, West Bengal, Maharashtra and Southern States would be overwhelmed by Hindi speakers.
Bangladesh is exporting its population to all over the world for cheap labour. It has already sent its minority population to India, I am from West Bengal my grandfather came from Bangladesh. Please do the fact checking before and after partition.
A lot of people are commenting about the difference in the fertility rate of various social groups. Yes, it is true that Muslim Population is growing at a significantly faster rate than other social groups since its a large base as someone else pointed out, but it is not like it would make a very significant difference in the religious composition of India in the long term, at least not more than a couple of percentage points, since the total population base is even larger. No Muslims are not achieving a majority in India. Moreover, it also represents that the Muslim community in India is underdeveloped as compared to other communities since it is generally a universal trend that in a place where more women are educated, economic conditions are better, and people tend to produce fewer babies.
The thing is they need not be in majority. 20-30% is enough for them to commend a country with their unity. And with low literacy rate, it’s easy for them to fall prey for propaganda when even the literates easily believe in everything..
What kind of wokism is this, Muslim firmly believe in Dar al islam, and killing Yahud and Hanood is their ticket to heaven. Raping or marrying hindu girls is even so Wajib.
You have not addressed main concern, that the Hindus might be outnumbered by Muslims and sharia will be used to again oppress Hindus by Muslims who voted for Pakistan but deliberately stayed behind
Going by guptas presentation of facts ,he seems quite journalistic but while deciphering it ,it brings out the snobbish character out of him...find out with deeper analysis...
There is 1 interesting fact that Shekhar didnt mention. the current TFR (total fertility rate) of Pakistan is 3.3 and that of Bihar (Indias fastest) state is 3.2 .-a tale of 2 failures
The ideal population of India MUST not be more than 50 Crores for high living standards like developed countries. Truth is, right now, 95% Indians are living GHATIYA life in terms of living standards.
Good episode, but India's TFR at the national level is 2.0 as per National Family Health Survey 5, (2019-2020). India is already below replacement rate. Only 5 states still have TFR above 2.1 as per NFHS 5.
In the case of Manipur its an influx from neighbouring country Myanmar due to unrest there residing in border districts otherwise it is below replacement number. Its growth is inorganic. In recent times foreigners from that part of the world were caught having fake ids like aadhar cards etc.
Situation is very scary in india even now and further increase in population for next few years will further worsen the situation and turn India into hell because of excessive stress on our resources ,I feel the conclusions are based on assumptions which may not turn out to be true.Population shall decrease because of climate change and similar other natural reasons rather than decrease in fertility rate.
This study is associated with two names that have earned robust public distrust: 'Lancet' and 'Bill Gates' (Gates foundation). But thanks to The Print for reminding us that the issue of population is important; economists would say that people are an asset if utilized well, rather than a burden (and I agree).
Sir come to Maharashtra, marathi speaking population reduced from 94% at 1960 to 61% in 2021 , There are daily fifty trains from north india to state , and anthoer 50 from rest of less progressive state bringing millions to state , so tremendous challenges.
Why is that even a problem for you? People coming from other states to MH are a blessing for it as they are only contributing to its economy, and are not any burden on the State. Do you expect them to leave their native language behind and then enter MH? Come out of your sick linguistic chauvinism.
Either u stay that way or become like Bihar, where other states people will not go due to lack of oppurtunities. You can't have the cake and eat it too. Every city is like that only . In Bengaluru, non Kannadigas are more than Kannada people.
You are totally wrong. Come to UP's Bahraich district. Move in any direction and go to any village with some Muslim population. Find out what was Muslim population in 1951 and thereafter evey decennial figures and then find out the truth! Still if you do not have any appetite for such an exercise, pl. find out the figures for Rattapur village in Bahraich Tahsil of Bahraich district from the Registrar of Census operation.
Hi Shekhar, You do not take into account the impact of rising population into the effect it would have on climate change. We already are running into a disastrous position.
Hindu population growth is not such a big issue. What lancet tells about demography change. Lancet always against Hindus. It will do everything to prove Modi wrong.
world population is increasing but people r moving to other countries and becoming PR but nature has its ways to control it using floods, earthquake, etc.
UNHYPHENATED = Total Silence on Aaftaab Amin, Post-poll violence in Bengal or Subjugation of Hindus by special "kaum". The explosion of the habitually "exploding" kaum is dangerous.
This is what bugs me about SG. He just twists and turns with the wind. The last time he analysed population survey, he was castigating Bihar and UP for screwing the rest of India. This was about 2 years ago. I had commented even then that he’s wrong and we’re already at replacement levels. A lot of times, he makes a complete U turn and then acts like he didn’t hold a completely contrary view just 2 mins ago.
India is doing better despite the population explosion which is still scary and being the impediment in our growth. While non Muslims fertility rate is below replacement level , the Muslim fertility rate is not. And that will cause a demographic shift. That's why population control measures are warranted in India especially for the people who do not practice birth control.
SG loves to quote from foreign reports prepared by his sahebs...can't get enough of sahebs . Prof Babones shredded the "motivated" reports on India earlier.
Lancet may not have considered a fact that a particular religion in India that advocates its each male having 4 wives legally and producing as much as children. In Nigeria's case it seems they are right.
Don't be dumb. The only people who have children according to religious doctrine are illiterate and poverty-stricken. Look at Bangladesh, a Muslim country with women producing far less babies than India. And look at Pakistan, also a Muslim country that's breeding like bunnies. It has nothing to do with religion. If Indian muslims are having more babies it's because the country has failed to educate them and provide income opportunities.
@@zetaforever4953 If the concerned individuals deeply rooted to religion and study only religion and its direction nobody can help them. All the government schools are open for them in India. Those who studies main curriculum still go forward and make their life better.
@@kumar3798 lol if Indian muslims are having more babies because they're 'deeply rooted' in Islam, then are Biharis having more babies because they're more rooted in Hinduism than the rest of the country? 😂 and have all the Bangladeshis become atheists overnight? Go take a course in anthropology and sociology since you're so in favor of education. Within India, the states which are the poorest and least educated (like Bihar) have more babies than the rich and educated states. The religious communities that are poorest and least educated have more babies than the communities that are rich and educated. So on average a bihari hindu will have more babies than a Keralite muslim. Internationally, poor and undereducated countries have more babies than richer and educated nations, regardless of religion. Israel being the only exception since they're very invested in increasing the Jewish population. But apart from that, poverty and illiteracy are directly proportional to baby-production. So the way to reduce the birth rate of muslims is the same as reducing the birth rate of Biharis. More money and more books.
@@kumar3798 I've chosen Bihar because it's the least educated state in India. And Indian Muslims are the least educated religious community in this country. So they are the perfect parallel to each other. Biharis have the most babies among all states and Muslims have the most babies among all religions. Educating Muslims would have the same effect as educating Biharis. Less babies. As evidenced by Bangladesh and West Bengal. Bangladesh is majority Muslim and West Bengal is majority Hindu. Both places have birth rates below the replacement level, less than 2 babies per woman. So clearly, it's not a Muslim problem, because otherwise majority-Muslim Bangladesh wouldn't have a lower birth rate than India. It's simply an education problem.
These studies are based on a western perspective. They need the population of India and China to continuously grow. Educated and rich people from these two countries have been flocking to the developed countries. With China’s fall in fertility, the traditional skilled, rich Chinese will no more be there to supply the western world. The number of Chinese students to US and UK has already fallen and will continue to fall. If India’s population also starts to rapidly fall, the shock of drying up of migration from India will lead to a crash of many western economies. Starting with students drying up in these countries. We need to take these studies with a pinch of salt.
Adding a few points to balance out the opinion part of this analysis 1. Yes, the exponential growth phase of our population has ended, but that doesn't mean population is not a problem in India. If this had been addressed in time, we would have peaked at a more sustainable population. 2. According to this year's UN population report, almost half of all pregnancies worldwide are unintended. A huge number of these would be in India. While TFR in India is declining there is still disparity. A huge number of people are going child-free while a lot don't have access to birth control. That's how averages work and we need to make having kids more of a choice than an inevitability 3. India's famous demographic dividend has been a myth so far. It is only there on paper. We have terrible work force participation and by just increasing participation of women in the workforce to average, we can overcome the effects of an ageing population. Today we should be using that dividend to build lasting infrastructure for tomorrow 4. Migration to developing countries will not keep increasing at the current rate as their populations keep ageing. And migration can be overturned by providing more opportunities locally. This doesn't need decades. 5. If there is a big bulge of younger population, there is a worker surplus and as a result workers have less bargaining power. This drives down wages and increases intergenerational wealth gap like we are seeing in the US. (For those who are going to say "but US population is ageing", their workers are mostly in third world countries thanks to globalisation) 5. We need to stop comparing ourselves with Pakistan. That is a very low bar and does nothing but make us feel better about a bad situation Our soils are already depleted of micronutrients which are not added back by fertilizers. We are already facing a reduction in nutrients in our food compared to even the 90s. Nutritional deficiencies are no longer a problem faced only by very poor people, nowadays everyone is dealing with it. If we don't think about population, nature will. As more and more toxins are released into the environment and food becomes less nutrient dense, cancers and infertility will take care of the population for us
What is new in this prediction. This was already predicted by WHO 30 yrs back that Indian population will stabilize by 2050. India's peak popular by 2050 will be near 180 crore. Result of this study is not correct, they must have done some manipulation with the data.
Do you think that the present population is not a population explosion, then what is population explosion. You recently talked about hunger index. India must have a population of less than 80 crore the earlier the better.
Dear Print at 16:30 the host of the show has used a word "Sub Saharan Africa" which is considered derogatory as in subhuman to people living north of Sahara desert. The Print being a reputed news media organization should have higher standard even if it was said hastily.
by 2050-2100 the majority Indian population 60-80% will start living in urban cities instead of villages which is case now hence the fertility rate will decrease due to more education and lifestyle changes
Mr. Gupta, does Lancet tells about the climate change earth temperature risen because of this increased population? Its high time we realize population explosion is real and harming mother earth very badly. We humans must cut our population to half of what its now ASAP so save our future generations.
Shekhar, no, we do not need to flatten the curve. We need to keep our hands off of family's choices to have children. Think about the report's projections - a TFR of 1.29 in 2100 will mean a very rapidly aging population. That is a full blown crisis with respect to dependency ratios. Unless our plan is to take the elderly out back and shoot them, it is not a good idea to actively look for fewer babies. Ideally, the TFR remains at 2.1 forever and we have a constant population, with a decent dependency ratio, but that is not going to happen. So, we are headed to a crisis, and you want to accelerate it! Not a great idea by any stretch! Also, a plethora of factual errors in this piece, and serious ones at that. For instance, India's TFR is 2.2 (in 2020), and not 2.4. In 2022, post pandemic, it is likely even lower.
in १९७१ बांग्लादेश population was more than Pakistan . Today it is ३०% less than Pakistan . Being Bhartiya raise alarm and discuss repeatedly about illegal immigration into India
Mr Gupta 1. I have seen studies that has similar projections. 2. Please go through research papers that points out problems of declining population. You will find that problems in a declining population are also scary. So declining population is also not something you celebrate.
People say Indian population is not an issue.. If everyone looks using neo-liberal economic model, more labor means more human capital to boost economy. That is a BS way of seeing things. The quality of life in India (outside health outcomes) is worse now because of large population. Traveling on roads is a challenge because we are all traffic. Pollution is choking cities and towns. Natural world is being decimated to make concrete jungles. Having more goods inside house is not better life.. A simple life, with pure air, nature, and less hassle is much better than cities bursting at seams... Quality of life is important and it is not good. there is nothing but stress in everyone's life and if you look at the reasons... you will come to so many of us occupying small piece of land
No population control bill is required. Just invest in education of women and female workforce participation and rest will be taken care of automatically.
I don't think the parameters quoted above are. Relevant decline in population depends on the awareness. Of the. People it is happening. Drastically. All over. Coastal andhra
Please make one episode on Indian judiciary system, number of pending cases, average days required to get justice. And some valuable suggestions to improve it. Courts must be 24×7(in 3 shifs of 8 hours) to solve the problem(are they under essential service like police and doctors )
"I have more respect for a mall's food court than the Supreme court of india"
- Kunal Kamra
YES! If there is anything that needs quicker and massive reforms, it is the lethargic Indian judiciary.
Can't believe Indian courts still have summer vacation! A tradition left over by Angrezi lords, our Brown sahibs are still happy to carry on.
Please make CTC of Aftab cutting a Dalit Hindu Girl into 35 pieces and many similar cases of Love Jihad!
@@indiafirst6517 uska dam nahin hain.
Judicial reform will have the most impact on making India better governed. Sue the municipalities to do a good job. It can be a game changer for cities atleast
Would love to see the accuracy of Lancet's past projections.
Especially considering their reports on the origin of COVID
Our future depends more on how well we save our environment rather than several other factors. We hope to save our wildlife, our forests, our swamps, our deserts and our snow mountains. Over-constructing and redesigning Mother Earth would be at our peril.
Sekharji, pl do not underrate the importance of changes in demographics. It is true that overall population rise is coming down overall as well as among different communities as well.
But, still the rise of Muslim population is higher than Hindus. The change of demographics due to change in organic population rise, conversions and illegal immigration is a cause of concern to maintain peace and security in the country. This I feel should not be underestimated.
Interesting.
This the advantage of being ignorant. Always quote data, when you express a point so that one who listen get your point.
that is a bullshit claim unsubstantiated by data. The REAL difference in fertility rates is that between Hindi speakers (especially UP, Bihar, Rajasthan) and non Hindi Speakers. That difference is far more significant than that between Hindus and Muslims, and if this trend continues, West Bengal and Southern States would be overwhelmed by Hindi speakers.
Of course we have to insert a communal angle to everything. The difference in TFR is completely explained by poverty. That is why countries in subsaharan africa have higher TFR. The much bigger risk over having too much population is actually having too little population.
@@ssam00 and there would be nothing wrong with that. Also, the growth rates will switch around during that process so that you can't really decide which way the final situation looks. The reason the hindi heartland has more children is that they are simply poorer. They will become less poor over time due to development, and TFR will correspondingly fall.
India might be the only country to have 2000 Dollar per capita income and a Fertility rate of 2.1 equivalent to many high income nations.
High income?
Thats an awful deal.
@@maramnikhilreddy424 For a Per capita income in Low category, India's fertility rate is quite low
@@cuckoonut1208 exactly it's the ghost of malthus come back to haunt us
And we r spending these crucial years of demographic strength busy in Hindu-Muslim fights...We r all gonna regret this 4 decades from now
Sir, the worry is not population but the population mix. Like a good lutyen, you have avoided that completely.
Have you seen latest fertility trends?
@@rohitshrivastava4742 could you please share
@@rohitshrivastava4742 Fertility rate is still much higher amongst Muslims and is just a part of it. Conversions, illegal immigration, land jihad, targeted killings and terrorism are all equally important.
It the losers that are multiplying.
@@elborrador333 it will peak at 19.5% and then platue out. And stay there. Read Govt of India data please
SG has skipped elephant in the room once again.
He's good at it...true leftist.
Shekharji, interesting analysis. However, you mixed up the units of measurement at many places. I strongly suggest that you start using a teleprompter for such numbers heavy episodes
True the metrics were wrongly used at many places !! I am assuming that is more due to excitement!! 😊
Thanks Shekhar for this video- I feel relieved. I am a typical Indian always worrying about the size and growth of our population.
its our cities that r experiencing population explosion. otherwise our rural areas r getting empty. issue is unplanned urbanisation. bengaluru, pune, amdavad-gnagar, chennai r not built to hold 1 cr ppl each. so much population in a city results in wasting thousands of crores on metro lines. solution is to open i.t firms branch offices and offer allied services in tier 3 cities to reduce youth migration.
As long as you are not Hindu then you need not worry.
Demography may drastically change. Minorities may become majority.
It has already happened in several districts of Kerala, Assam, Bengal, etc.
@@mlg1279 yas, but it will be expanded .
Insha'allah
@@beluga2841 go to PaXtan. There's no space en Inde.
@@cerveauy8782 ill do you one better, ill create a pakistan in india. wait and watch
Its not population but higher growth among a particular community is the real problem..In last 30/40 years many districts have become either almost Hindu Free or Hindu minority..Namely 11 districts out of 27 districts in Assam, 7/8 Border districts of West Bengal, many border districts of UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, Entire North Kerala, Even a district in Haryana and many more. So dont mislead.
Sorry sir ur wrong..the rate of TFR reduction in the same community is reducing at the faster pace ...
@@hemu7352 faster pace theory takes the inspiration only from the last one or two census. In statistics, only two data points do not reflect any permanent trend. Even then percentage of Muslim population is still increasing , just the rate of increase has reduced. And you dont need whole country to be Muslim majority, just few states and districts are enough( examples Pak, Bangladesh, Kashmir) ...and that is what exactly happened in last 30 years...Lower Assam, and large portion of Middle Assam, All border districts of Bengal, Bihar and Jharkhand, UP Nepal border districts, North Kerala districts, Border districts of Rajasthan have already become Muslim majority or on the verge of becoming Muslim majority which were Hindu majority 4/5 decades back.
U r an extreamists, so stop talking nonsense.
Opinion from extreamists like u are irrelevant.
For INDIA problem is not that it ll be 200 crore or 109 crore. Problem is one community is on population rampage which ll change demography of nation and it ll be threat to Hindus and Nation..
Even if population will be 109 cr but 70 % of people will be from a special community ,that is actual problem
Whatsapp University graduate 😂😂
It is not rocket science to deduce this result, what with the fertility rate nearing the replacement rate. But the elephant in the room, which no one speaks of is the composition of the population. While the average fertility rate of other religious groups have already reached the replacement rate of 2.1, the Muslim population has a fertility rate significantly more. Following the falling curve, the population of other religious groups will fall below the replacement rate, while the Muslim population will continue to increase as a percentage of the total population. So what will be the composition of different religious groups as a percentage of the total population, in 2048, and 2100?
Look mr/ms if you wanna continue on dumbfounded illogical hate go on I mean if there are high iq people there should be low IQ people at the end of the day but if you wanna stay factual let's get into some facts . According to the govts sources nfhs data released in May 2022 . The fertility rate of muslims has seen the sharpest decline since 1994 . Here the stats
1994-4.1
2004-3.4
2015-2.6
2022-2.3
Now for Hindus
It was in 1992-3.2
Now in 2022-2.0
What's even more shocking that the rate of difference is now very close in the 1990's it was almost a child difference now it's almost the same. A record 46.5% decline in Muslim fertility highest in any religion .
Source- nfhs-5
And one more fact in 1941 when British India had a survey conducted about the population known as census today Muslims made 25% of India's population. In 1951- it fell to 9%
Now it's at 14% . So it's still lesser than 1941 .
One more fact between 1950-1990 more Hindus were born than total Muslims ever lived in indian subcontinent .
- a logical Brahmin trying to counter politically motivated hindu muslim bigotry
@@bloodwargaming3662 Cutting through all the initial crap that you posted, here are the facts taken from your figures. In 1941 India was undivided, while in 1951, the population figures were only from the divided India. The present fertility rate of 2.0 for other groups is below the replacement rate of 2.1and this results in declining population,while the same for Muslims is 2.3 at present. The difference of 0.3 might seem innocuous, but viewed from a large enough base contributes significantly. My take was on the population composition as a percentage, and not by numbers. This is a big difference, and proves that you are not the logical Brahmin, you claim to be. It might be difficult initially, but with effort, you might understand the difference. Slowly, slowly, catchi monkey, what?
@@ocs748 nothing i posted is crap all is facts and without numbers how are you talking about composition lmao 😂😂 and you are calling me a monkey. I also think due to your ignorance you didn't even read my paragraph properly .i have clearly mentioned how the huge gap during the 1990's between muslim and hindu fertility rate has now almost come to same rate . 1994-3.3 to 4.2 now it's . 1.94 to 2.3 . Difference has been seen so has development.
@@bloodwargaming3662 At the outset let me assure you, that you were not called a monkey. It is a very common phrase, and it says that with patience and persistence even a difficult task can be accomplished. You can google it up for conformation. As far as the figures are concerned, I have use your figures. In 1941 census the Muslim population was 25% of Undivided India, while after partition it was 7%, by 1951 census. Now the muslims form above 18% of the population. At present there is still a difference of 0.3 in the fertility rate of other religious groups and the Muslims. The replacement fertility rate is 2.1, so in effect the Muslim population growth as a percentage of the total will be higher, and they will form a higher % of the population in 2048, and also in 2100.
It is difficult to deconstruct this, but please try, the result will be most satisfying.
@@ocs748 it's not 18% its 14.3% now currently.
TFR is not expressed as a percentage
Sir what about the demographics of the Muslims vs Hindus. Owaisi and other leaders have excel sheet calculations that show that Hindus will be less than Muslims in 2050. Is there any data on this aspect ?
There are studies in fact that says those numbers are false. The worst I have seen projects Hindu population to dip to 66% and then it will stabilize around this number.
Going by the growth rate of both communities, I think a reasonable projection is Muslims might form 30-35% and Hindus 55-70% in 2100, if the govt at least proceeds with the delayed 2021 census we will have much better data to understand.
One of the biggest misconception about population dynamic in India is that boogeyman of Muslims growing faster than Hindus. Yes Muslims do have higher fertility rates but the REAL difference in fertility rates is that between Hindi speakers (especially UP, Bihar, Rajasthan) and non Hindi Speakers. That difference is far more significant than that between Hindus and Muslims, and if this trend continues, West Bengal, Maharashtra and Southern States would be overwhelmed by Hindi speakers.
Export of labor in the age of AI, automation, robotics??? When technological adoption is rapidly increasing, how delusional are experts. Technological unemployment has arrived. Population would be the burden in coming ages.
Fertility rate is not in percentage but it's only a figure. Say 2.1 or 1.29 etc
You are right, it is the number of babies delivered by a female.
But sir what I had learnt from a population cut the clutter before was that India is growing at the rate of 2 but now you say it is 2.4 . Which one is right ?
Insightful discourse
Thanks Mr. SG
One of the biggest misconception about population dynamic in India is that boogeyman of Muslims growing faster than Hindus. Yes Muslims do have higher fertility rates but the REAL difference in fertility rates is that between Hindi speakers (especially UP, Bihar, Rajasthan) and non Hindi Speakers. That difference is far more significant than that between Hindus and Muslims, and if this trend continues, West Bengal, Maharashtra and Southern States would be overwhelmed by Hindi speakers.
In the year 2100, RaGa will still be the next PM.
In the year 2100, arranged marriage will still exist & good for nothing people will still be populating the big cities in insane numbers.
He will be young too.
@@cuckoonut1208 i hope it will be a two party democracy
U think our country will still be a democracy by 2100? wow
@@chethanshajan9047 yes i think. I am a very optimistic person
Bangladesh is exporting its population to all over the world for cheap labour.
It has already sent its minority population to India, I am from West Bengal my grandfather came from Bangladesh. Please do the fact checking before and after partition.
A lot of people are commenting about the difference in the fertility rate of various social groups. Yes, it is true that Muslim Population is growing at a significantly faster rate than other social groups since its a large base as someone else pointed out, but it is not like it would make a very significant difference in the religious composition of India in the long term, at least not more than a couple of percentage points, since the total population base is even larger. No Muslims are not achieving a majority in India. Moreover, it also represents that the Muslim community in India is underdeveloped as compared to other communities since it is generally a universal trend that in a place where more women are educated, economic conditions are better, and people tend to produce fewer babies.
The thing is they need not be in majority. 20-30% is enough for them to commend a country with their unity. And with low literacy rate, it’s easy for them to fall prey for propaganda when even the literates easily believe in everything..
The devil is in the details. What percentage?
What kind of wokism is this, Muslim firmly believe in Dar al islam, and killing Yahud and Hanood is their ticket to heaven. Raping or marrying hindu girls is even so Wajib.
@@ocs748 19.5%
@@syedatifhussainin How did you get the figure?
You have not addressed main concern, that the Hindus might be outnumbered by Muslims and sharia will be used to again oppress Hindus by Muslims who voted for Pakistan but deliberately stayed behind
Government should encourage to have 2 children and at the same time discourage to have more than 2 children, by doing so demography can be maintained.
Allah ke den ka kya hoga 😂 kufra ho jayega 🫣
Going by guptas presentation of facts ,he seems quite journalistic but while deciphering it ,it brings out the snobbish character out of him...find out with deeper analysis...
lancet needs to do a study on when will we win the world cup
Lmao
A community moves as per with A Rubbish Book,
Not by theories of Demographics.
There is 1 interesting fact that Shekhar didnt mention. the current TFR (total fertility rate) of Pakistan is 3.3 and that of Bihar (Indias fastest) state is 3.2 .-a tale of 2 failures
The ideal population of India MUST not be more than 50 Crores for high living standards like developed countries.
Truth is, right now, 95% Indians are living GHATIYA life in terms of living standards.
remember in 1947 muslim were 33 % and they got india partitioned with out the backing of petrodollar
It was 25%
@@parvadhami980 i heard it was 33% in 1941 census
@@jayantkumar2314 wrong.
Muslims at 25%
Hindus at 70%
Rest at 5%
Currently going to shantidoot 's area I don't believe this report , anyone has doubts go see by your eyes
👌Thank you once again 👍SGSir the print media
Is TFR calculated in percentage? I don't think so
In India Muslim is highest fertility rate
Good episode, but India's TFR at the national level is 2.0 as per National Family Health Survey 5, (2019-2020). India is already below replacement rate. Only 5 states still have TFR above 2.1 as per NFHS 5.
In the case of Manipur its an influx from neighbouring country Myanmar due to unrest there residing in border districts otherwise it is below replacement number. Its growth is inorganic. In recent times foreigners from that part of the world were caught having fake ids like aadhar cards etc.
Situation is very scary in india even now and further increase in population for next few years will further worsen the situation and turn India into hell because of excessive stress on our resources ,I feel the conclusions are based on assumptions which may not turn out to be true.Population shall decrease because of climate change and similar other natural reasons rather than decrease in fertility rate.
Please make CTC of Aftab cutting a Dalit Hindu Girl into 35 pieces and many similar cases of Love Jihad!
Indian population may peak faster than expected 2048 due to increasing immigration of youth
The only things that lowers population in a democratic country are education and quality of life
This study is associated with two names that have earned robust public distrust: 'Lancet' and 'Bill Gates' (Gates foundation). But thanks to The Print for reminding us that the issue of population is important; economists would say that people are an asset if utilized well, rather than a burden (and I agree).
Sir come to Maharashtra, marathi speaking population reduced from 94% at 1960 to 61% in 2021 , There are daily fifty trains from north india to state , and anthoer 50 from rest of less progressive state bringing millions to state , so tremendous challenges.
you talking about Mumbai or Maharashtra?
Why is that even a problem for you? People coming from other states to MH are a blessing for it as they are only contributing to its economy, and are not any burden on the State. Do you expect them to leave their native language behind and then enter MH? Come out of your sick linguistic chauvinism.
Bro we are indians... Migration is part of human life..
@@jayantkumar2314 go to pune , Nashik , Nagpur ,jalgaon , Aurangabad each city has same story
Either u stay that way or become like Bihar, where other states people will not go due to lack of oppurtunities. You can't have the cake and eat it too. Every city is like that only . In Bengaluru, non Kannadigas are more than Kannada people.
Dr Ambedkar recommended to the Govt of India in 1950 to impose family planning but the Govt didn't so now we are stuggling
Our population is not a grave problem but illiterate / inadequately literate population is the great problem.
Professor Babones has rebutted your video on him. Please clarify
You are totally wrong. Come to UP's Bahraich district. Move in any direction and go to any village with some Muslim population. Find out what was Muslim population in 1951 and thereafter evey decennial figures and then find out the truth! Still if you do not have any appetite for such an exercise, pl. find out the figures for Rattapur village in Bahraich Tahsil of Bahraich district from the Registrar of Census operation.
Hi Shekhar,
You do not take into account the impact of rising population into the effect it would have on climate change. We already are running into a disastrous position.
Demographic growth is not as big a problem as Demographic change
Hindu population growth is not such a big issue. What lancet tells about demography change. Lancet always against Hindus. It will do everything to prove Modi wrong.
The Lancer has been wrong many times.
No audio
Again trying to Answer a question that's not even asked.
How would you justify Hindu (1.9) Vs Muslim (2.3) rates in next 25, 50, 75 and 100 years.
This topic was done earlier too
28 jul, 2020??? Its confusing
How can the area of Nigeria accommodate so many? Won't Nigerian migrate to other developed countries
world population is increasing but people r moving to other countries and becoming PR but nature has its ways to control it using floods, earthquake, etc.
Appreciate the report, but wrong units used alongside those numbers throughout this video...
UNHYPHENATED = Total Silence on Aaftaab Amin, Post-poll violence in Bengal or Subjugation of Hindus by special "kaum". The explosion of the habitually "exploding" kaum is dangerous.
This is what bugs me about SG. He just twists and turns with the wind. The last time he analysed population survey, he was castigating Bihar and UP for screwing the rest of India. This was about 2 years ago. I had commented even then that he’s wrong and we’re already at replacement levels.
A lot of times, he makes a complete U turn and then acts like he didn’t hold a completely contrary view just 2 mins ago.
India is doing better despite the population explosion which is still scary and being the impediment in our growth. While non Muslims fertility rate is below replacement level , the Muslim fertility rate is not. And that will cause a demographic shift. That's why population control measures are warranted in India especially for the people who do not practice birth control.
Areee bas karo new video dal do sir ab
If we make law for reducing population then we might suffer the way Chinese face now due to one child policy
The world will be a better place with at least 500 million Indians existing.
SG loves to quote from foreign reports prepared by his sahebs...can't get enough of sahebs . Prof Babones shredded the "motivated" reports on India earlier.
Lancet may not have considered a fact that a particular religion in India that advocates its each male having 4 wives legally and producing as much as children. In Nigeria's case it seems they are right.
Don't be dumb. The only people who have children according to religious doctrine are illiterate and poverty-stricken. Look at Bangladesh, a Muslim country with women producing far less babies than India. And look at Pakistan, also a Muslim country that's breeding like bunnies. It has nothing to do with religion. If Indian muslims are having more babies it's because the country has failed to educate them and provide income opportunities.
@@zetaforever4953 If the concerned individuals deeply rooted to religion and study only religion and its direction nobody can help them. All the government schools are open for them in India. Those who studies main curriculum still go forward and make their life better.
@@kumar3798 lol if Indian muslims are having more babies because they're 'deeply rooted' in Islam, then are Biharis having more babies because they're more rooted in Hinduism than the rest of the country? 😂 and have all the Bangladeshis become atheists overnight?
Go take a course in anthropology and sociology since you're so in favor of education. Within India, the states which are the poorest and least educated (like Bihar) have more babies than the rich and educated states. The religious communities that are poorest and least educated have more babies than the communities that are rich and educated. So on average a bihari hindu will have more babies than a Keralite muslim.
Internationally, poor and undereducated countries have more babies than richer and educated nations, regardless of religion. Israel being the only exception since they're very invested in increasing the Jewish population. But apart from that, poverty and illiteracy are directly proportional to baby-production. So the way to reduce the birth rate of muslims is the same as reducing the birth rate of Biharis. More money and more books.
@@zetaforever4953 You have chosen Bihar the most backward state in India for your convenient to quote. Even there Musslims are not better than others.
@@kumar3798 I've chosen Bihar because it's the least educated state in India. And Indian Muslims are the least educated religious community in this country. So they are the perfect parallel to each other. Biharis have the most babies among all states and Muslims have the most babies among all religions. Educating Muslims would have the same effect as educating Biharis. Less babies. As evidenced by Bangladesh and West Bengal. Bangladesh is majority Muslim and West Bengal is majority Hindu. Both places have birth rates below the replacement level, less than 2 babies per woman. So clearly, it's not a Muslim problem, because otherwise majority-Muslim Bangladesh wouldn't have a lower birth rate than India. It's simply an education problem.
Hunger, disease, nuclear pomb, Himalayan quake, volcano eruption, meteor strike, murders, etc. These can't be ruled out. So....
The same lancet of 'COVID fame'. How reliable can it be
These studies are based on a western perspective. They need the population of India and China to continuously grow. Educated and rich people from these two countries have been flocking to the developed countries. With China’s fall in fertility, the traditional skilled, rich Chinese will no more be there to supply the western world. The number of Chinese students to US and UK has already fallen and will continue to fall. If India’s population also starts to rapidly fall, the shock of drying up of migration from India will lead to a crash of many western economies. Starting with students drying up in these countries. We need to take these studies with a pinch of salt.
We don't have an over poulation problem on the planet, what we have is a population CONCENTRATION problem.
Adding a few points to balance out the opinion part of this analysis
1. Yes, the exponential growth phase of our population has ended, but that doesn't mean population is not a problem in India. If this had been addressed in time, we would have peaked at a more sustainable population.
2. According to this year's UN population report, almost half of all pregnancies worldwide are unintended. A huge number of these would be in India. While TFR in India is declining there is still disparity. A huge number of people are going child-free while a lot don't have access to birth control. That's how averages work and we need to make having kids more of a choice than an inevitability
3. India's famous demographic dividend has been a myth so far. It is only there on paper. We have terrible work force participation and by just increasing participation of women in the workforce to average, we can overcome the effects of an ageing population. Today we should be using that dividend to build lasting infrastructure for tomorrow
4. Migration to developing countries will not keep increasing at the current rate as their populations keep ageing. And migration can be overturned by providing more opportunities locally. This doesn't need decades.
5. If there is a big bulge of younger population, there is a worker surplus and as a result workers have less bargaining power. This drives down wages and increases intergenerational wealth gap like we are seeing in the US. (For those who are going to say "but US population is ageing", their workers are mostly in third world countries thanks to globalisation)
5. We need to stop comparing ourselves with Pakistan. That is a very low bar and does nothing but make us feel better about a bad situation
Our soils are already depleted of micronutrients which are not added back by fertilizers. We are already facing a reduction in nutrients in our food compared to even the 90s. Nutritional deficiencies are no longer a problem faced only by very poor people, nowadays everyone is dealing with it. If we don't think about population, nature will. As more and more toxins are released into the environment and food becomes less nutrient dense, cancers and infertility will take care of the population for us
All this is well and good if humanity survives to 2100.
What is new in this prediction. This was already predicted by WHO 30 yrs back that Indian population will stabilize by 2050. India's peak popular by 2050 will be near 180 crore. Result of this study is not correct, they must have done some manipulation with the data.
Pakistan's peak at 31 crores in incorrect. It will peak at 41 crores as per Lancet.
The age of darkness will descend on our planet by 2100
After a while a very good piece of CTC. Thank you.
After the year 2050 some African countries will go on the top of the list in every field including economy
Do you think that the present population is not a population explosion, then what is population explosion. You recently talked about hunger index. India must have a population of less than 80 crore the earlier the better.
Dear Print at 16:30 the host of the show has used a word "Sub Saharan Africa" which is considered derogatory as in subhuman to people living north of Sahara desert. The Print being a reputed news media organization should have higher standard even if it was said hastily.
Better than niggas.
He owns the Print 😂
You’re trolling, right? Sub Saharan literally just means “south of the Sahara”, it’s a geographical expression
@@deaththekid3998 sub continent is offensive to continents too.
We don't understand sign language
I am only worried about India and the raise and raise os Muslim population in India and in the World.
by 2050-2100 the majority Indian population 60-80% will start living in urban cities instead of villages which is case now hence the fertility rate will decrease due to more education and lifestyle changes
Mr. Gupta, does Lancet tells about the climate change earth temperature risen because of this increased population? Its high time we realize population explosion is real and harming mother earth very badly. We humans must cut our population to half of what its now ASAP so save our future generations.
Shekhar, no, we do not need to flatten the curve. We need to keep our hands off of family's choices to have children. Think about the report's projections - a TFR of 1.29 in 2100 will mean a very rapidly aging population. That is a full blown crisis with respect to dependency ratios. Unless our plan is to take the elderly out back and shoot them, it is not a good idea to actively look for fewer babies. Ideally, the TFR remains at 2.1 forever and we have a constant population, with a decent dependency ratio, but that is not going to happen. So, we are headed to a crisis, and you want to accelerate it! Not a great idea by any stretch!
Also, a plethora of factual errors in this piece, and serious ones at that. For instance, India's TFR is 2.2 (in 2020), and not 2.4. In 2022, post pandemic, it is likely even lower.
Lancet and Gates foundation Lost the TRUST.. Must see the lower fertility rate in parts of society...Some section still rise exponentially...
in १९७१ बांग्लादेश population was more than Pakistan . Today it is ३०% less than Pakistan . Being Bhartiya raise alarm and discuss repeatedly about illegal immigration into India
Can't hear anything. Audio issue;(
This happens if you are too early. YT is not done syncing audio and video.
Lot of countries might not exist at 2100 in 1900 lot of this nation states were not there
We need population.. whoever is feeding you about population crises has something planned for the future
This data is already wrong 2024. By 2030 India would be 3rd largest economy.
where are you sitting? such a oxygen rich place
Science and politics don't go hand in hand
Mr Gupta
1. I have seen studies that has similar projections.
2. Please go through research papers that points out problems of declining population. You will find that problems in a declining population are also scary. So declining population is also not something you celebrate.
Gupta ji only reads the lines that satisfy his perception, he won't displease many,he walks carefully with the power ...
Already see 1 or max 2 child in Indian metro cities leading to TFR falling, population peaking lot earlier than prediction.
People say Indian population is not an issue.. If everyone looks using neo-liberal economic model, more labor means more human capital to boost economy. That is a BS way of seeing things. The quality of life in India (outside health outcomes) is worse now because of large population. Traveling on roads is a challenge because we are all traffic. Pollution is choking cities and towns. Natural world is being decimated to make concrete jungles. Having more goods inside house is not better life.. A simple life, with pure air, nature, and less hassle is much better than cities bursting at seams... Quality of life is important and it is not good. there is nothing but stress in everyone's life and if you look at the reasons... you will come to so many of us occupying small piece of land
The simple way of lowering TFR is women's literacy...
Fertility rate is not in percentages. It is just a number. Surprised that such a senior journalist made such a basic mistake.
No population control bill is required. Just invest in education of women and female workforce participation and rest will be taken care of automatically.
Sir, Pakistan is introducing interest free Islamic banking. Could you please discuss it? Thanks
Don't worry Indians will migrate and balance will be maintain.
I don't think the parameters quoted above are. Relevant decline in population depends on the awareness. Of the. People it is happening. Drastically. All over. Coastal andhra