The Future of Bitcoin? - With Jim O'Shaughnessy
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 20 พ.ย. 2020
- In the first of my series of excerpts of my interview with Jim O'Shaughnessy, we discuss the future of Bitcoin, gold bugs and how keeping an open mind has contributed to Jim's success throughout his career as an investor.
Jim O'Shaughnessy is an extremely successful investor and the founder of O'Shaughnessy Asset Management. He is also the author of a number of excellent books including “What Works on Wall Street” and co-hosts a brilliant podcast called “Infinite Loops”
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If you want to interview Mr Pompliano, you might want to get his name right, its Anthony. And I think Bitcoin will be good as a store of value because the number of people that believe in it (whether rightly or wrongly) has grown overtime and there's plenty of infrastructure and smart people worldwide to support it.
Hi @@tekkertruth1256 I realized my mistake after I released the video - I should have stuck to Pomp. I guess Jim's point was the same as yours that ultimately things have value because people believe in them including fiat money. Thanks, Ramin.
@@Pensioncraft No worries, hopefully you have the interview with Pomp, it will be good for everyone to watch who are undecided on Bitcoin.
@@Pensioncraft ...you are BETTER than Pomp. Please do not go down this route for likes. He’s just another speculator and already stale and not skilled or experienced enough in any of the relevant disciplines (finance, economics, cryptography, computer science, etc.). Mance Harmon or Leemon Baird of Hedera Hashgraph - two mature, computer science doctorates, life long entrepreneurs, and founders of the Hashgraph DTL (the successor of blockchain tech - more efficient, lower cost, scalable and already governed by google, ibm, Tata comms, t-mobile, UCL uni, and others... and no one even really knows about it). Both these guys know everything about crypto currency, it’s pros and cons, cryptography, computer science, and business and they have been doing it decades before the first line of bitcoin code was a gleam in its creators eye.
Millennial's and younger intrinsically understand and see the value in Bitcoin - digital gold for a digital age if you will. I work full-time in the market as an analyst and developer, I'd love to talk evidence-based, non-dogmatic about the exciting future on-chain. Appreciate you taking a deeper look for your audience.
@Tommy Hammernots The fundamentals within Bitcoin's protocol invalidates your assumptions; alt-coins are not Bitcoin. Not to mention, literally billions of dollars can be sent across countries for ~$3 using Bitcoin, without intermediaries; this is why central banks are overhauling 'cross border payments' using similar underlying technology, with a roadmap towards Central Bank Digital currencies. Bitcoin is shaping up over the coming years to be the digital gold to CBDC 'cash'. Look at Stan Druckenmiller, Paul Tudor Jones, Michael Saylor, Raoul Pal, etc thoughts on its place in the future and why they own it.
@Tommy Hammernots "“… do I think it’s a durable mechanism that I think will take the place of gold to large extent? Yeah, I do …” - Rick Reider, Chief Investment Officer BlackRock.
Balance and calm thought in all things.
Loved that discussion, a clearly intelligent man who reserves judgement and always seeks to learn. On the subject of dogma, my immediate thought was certain EV stocks, even more so than crypto.
Yes I've heard that Tesla has a religious following. Thanks, Ramin
Tesla needs to be corrrrrrected. But that's harder to do with the cult of Elon Musk going on. I like what he is trying to do, but when are you going to call a spade a spade.
Amazing interview, many thanks!
Glad you enjoyed it!
Please interview Simon Dixon! He's a very respectful conversationalist and expert on bitcoin.
Thank you!
Thanks for the suggestion punkrock6660! Ramin
@@Pensioncraft + 1 for Simon. Or Vijay Boyapati. Pomp isn’t right for this channel
I also would like to see this.
@@petersp8 Simon Dixon coming very soon. I've finished the interview I now just need to get it ready to publish. Thanks Ramin
Interesting interview. Jim is a smart guy. Good point he raises about art
Hi J BULLIONAIRE I agree, the analogy between art and cryptocurrency is a good one
Another great episode. Pleasantly surprised to see a discussion on bitcoin given that you were previously skeptical (rightfully so at the time). I look forward to your future thoughts on bitcoin.
Glad you enjoyed it Bill Spam
12:57 Absolutely right. Bitcoin and gold discussions draw in an almost religious crowd and the danger is that they will have fixed opinions which cannot be changed by facts or strong arguments. As a content creator, do you tell them what they want to hear and feed them those stories just to get more likes or subscribers (I’ve seen many TH-camrs do this) or do you tell them the unpopular truth hoping in the long run, it will be appreciated, which is more ethical. I personally enjoy your empirical based analysis and it’s miles above other popular TH-camrs in that space.
Great conversation, thank you for the awesome content. If you had to put bitcoin into an asset class, which one would it be? and would that apply to all cryptocurrencies?
Bitcoin is it's own asset class.
That was very interesting, thanks for sharing! I've recently started to invest in crypto as a way to diversify my portfolio and also to learn a bit about it.
Do you not think... If for one moment the banksters thought bitcoin and crypto were a threat to their precious financial system they would do everything to destroy it. Instead, they are buying into it, in the hundreds of millions of dollars. Why? Because, they created crypto in the first place, they are getting it ready to be implemented globally, it's here to stay permanently.
@@chuckbradley1 I like your train of thought, but why would bankers like it? You cant manipulate Bitcoin like you can gold and other assets, so to me it seems like they are giving up control my embracing Bitcoin.
@@chuckbradley1 just read the bitcoin standard
I think Andreas Antonopoulos would be the best person to interview. Second option: Tuur Demeester is really good and has interesting perspectives on investing in bitcoin.
They both fit your nuanced style really well I think. Also consider Marc van der Chijs.
Australian investor (and previously qualified pharmacist) Alex Saunders from Nuggets News would be great and also very approachable.
He has his own podcast and he's been in the crypto sphere for many years and has a huge depth of knowledge on bitcoin and beyond (aka altcoins).
@PensionCraft I do not completely understand what you mean? Slightly sounds like an opening to sending me a spam website 😅
Both are Bitcoin maximalists with a total lack of objectivity, not to mention that they are both funded by Blockstream's Adam Back for their shills.
I think you mean Anthony Pompliano, not Adam Pompliano. Bitcoin is an asymmetrical bet. So the potential upside is much greater than the potential loss. Fidelity recommends allocation 5-6% of your portfolio for maximum risk/return. Fidelity manages more money than I’ll ever have, so that’s saying something coming from them. Love the channel by the way. Keep up the great content!
Hi Squire Productions, that's right I did mean Anthony, not Adam. Thanks, Ramin.
Appreciate you sharing your willingness to take a deeper look. 🙏🏻
Hi this is bullish, I try to keep an open mind. Thanks, Ramin
smart dude
I'm bought £200 of bitcoin when it was $4000 and it's more than quadrupled. However, I was very uneasy about it, because it had no intrinsic value - still, I'll take my profits.
Unfortunately, I'm old enough to remember history lessons concerning 'the South Sea Bubble' and the 'tulips from Amsterdam'.
To get Jim O'Shaugnessy on your channel is an absolve coup - well done. Jim is a legend for us oldies.
Hi it was great to speak to him. Thanks, Ramin
Super interesting. Always looking for these types of non-partisan opinions! I have a couple of issues with Bitcoin. It has problems as a medium of exchange which means why shouldn't it be replaced by a more suitable cryptocurrency. As a store of value, it basically has the same arguments as Gold but without the historical context and ease of exchange (i.e. you need a network). I certainly want to remain open-minded about it, as all investors should. At the moment I see Bitcoin as a purely speculative play, a trading vehicle not an investment one. Anyone care to offer any other non-partisan opinion?
I think the means of exchange problem may be getting solved. Something to do with the lightning network something something
Three respectful (non-dogmatic) points to make:
1. Confidence in the US dollar does not need to collapse for Bitcoin to be successful. There are many fiat currencies in the world that already command less confidence than BTC. Venezuelan bolivar anyone?
2. Even at 20k USD Bitcoin has a very small market capitalisation compared to other asset classes. It doesn't need to compete with fiat for it to hold value.
3. Whilst the US dollar is ultimately backed by the most powerful government and largest military in the world, trust in Bitcoin is backed by the cryptography and its decentralised structure. You don't need to trust in a legal system backed by police, courts, judges and the military if you can verify payments by the mathematics of the protocol. Because Bitcoin is so decentralised it makes it extremely resistant to attack and impossible debase (inflate) the currency.
Exactly
Great points. The fixed supply with diminishing inflation over time, with schedule controlled by code, is crucial.
Bitcoin is not a currency, it’s a data file on a computer which produces no income in itself which people attach notional value to.
@@simony2801 What is your definition of "currency" and "notional"? I would say Bitcoin's price is set by the market and therefore is as real as any other price.
@@relobmit good luck paying 50k for a data file.
A person would be crazy to want fiat over Bitcoin at this point...
A person that knows money that is
All investors know that cash is trash but that is not really an argument for bitcoin over other assets.
@@serpenttrader4071 read the bitcoin standard
@@jackstarling2795 Thanks, got a copy and have read the first 3 chapters already. Seems pretty balanced so far although I am expecting it to say that Bitcoin is the new Gold (which I have several issues with), but good book so far!
@@serpenttrader4071 yeah it is a good book, let me know how you are thinking at the end.
I would also like to be open minded with bitcoin. I have to be honest though that I didn't hear more reasons to believe in bitcoin other than I should be open minded about everything and bitcoin may fly when government backed currencies fail. In that case, can bitcoin really take over the role as a payment medium whiles its value fluctuates so much? How can it accustom to the idea of developing/ inflation? I am humble and open to hear more economy logics behind crypto currencies. Thank you for the video.
The analogy with Art is interesting ... Trouble is Art has aesthetic value ... People experience pleasure from owning and looking at an object of Art. Not sure if this applies to any of the Cryptocurrencies.
The analogy with Religion may be more apt .... Most Religions have been very transient and eventually disappear without a trace . But a handful of religions have endured to this day and are likely to persist for some considerable time.
This man's assertion that a good understanding of human psychology makes U a much better investor is spot on.
Great video ! Worth its weight in Gold !
I'm a big fan of Jim's! Thanks, Ramin.
Interview Simon Dixon, he will explain it all.
Yes Pomp not so suitable for here. Also consider Raul Paul at Real Vision, I think he would be good for the audience and has the right sort of background and demeanour like Simon.
Simon Dixon coming soon. The interview is done and I now just need to get it ready to publish. Thanks Ramin
great interview
Thank Vasu Gupta
Some of the heavy weigths in bitcoin that you should consider are: @PrestonPysh, @100trillionUSD, @ansellindner, @tuurdemeester, @danheld and @saifedean. You can find them all on twitter.
I do not believe in either gold or Bitcoin as a good hedge for anything. But I must say it is very nice with this open-mindedness about it.
I do not mind being proven wrong. But I do mind "fanatics" screaming about it.
This begs the question then, at what point will you concede to being wrong? We're nearly 12 years in to Bitcoin.
@@James_Sovereign It would depend on what the claim of what Bitcoin would be.
I do not think there is evidence for either Bitcoin or gold to be a good store of value.
Gold price adjusted for inflation is not stable at all and might even be falling over long periods of time. Ofc this is unknown for Bitcoin because Bitcoin is still very new.
Currently (nearly 12 years in) Bitcoin is horrible for buying goods and services. There is not a single store in my area that would accept Bitcoin as payment, so I do not think it shows any sign of being a replacement for fiat currencies.
Is Bitcoin a good hedge for anything? What asset classes is Bitcoin anti-correlated with? That can be hard to say, because of Bitcoin being so new.
@@erikkjellgren the Dollar has lost 98% of its value. The US stock market was propped up to save the pension funds of the baby boomers. Sure you can't go into a store and use Bitcoin to purchase something, but their are other cryptos like XRP or Bitcoin cash that you could use in the future.
@@ReVoltAgefilms What do you mean the dollar has lost 98% of its value?
I do not see how XRP and Bitcoin cash is an argument for Bitcoin.
It is also high speculative if they can be used as normal payments in the future.
@@erikkjellgren the Dollar used to be backed to gold, now it's backed to nothing. There is a finite amount of Bitcoin.
Cool
Thanks A K
Thanks Ramin. Interesting stuff!
Glad you enjoyed it
bitcoin is my insurance against bank sistem failure
Gold is insurance
If there is such a massive failure you won’t be able to eat your bitcoin or gold.
@@sid35gb when there's a currency collapse people switch to gold. Barter is too inefficient
@@patbateman2088 you’re not getting what I’m saying if people are starving gold is of no use.
@@sid35gb people still trade when there's starvation
Turn on, Tune in, OPT OUT ✌️
Great interview. There are some fundamentals to btc that i feel were missed though. For example, the finite supply is one that is truly quantifiable that isn't the case for other assets. The halving event which makes it more scarce. Once you factor this in and then look at the continuous data surrounding mining farms (signifying demand) and the hash rate of bitcoin, then you can actually start to quantify it from a fundamental perspective a little bit more than i think many people realise.
Hi Ollie, I think there are lots of people talking about those technical aspects of Bitcoin. What Jim does is to place Bitcoin into a wider investment context, and also the psychological aspect that lends it value. Thanks, Ramin
@@Pensioncraft Hi Ramin, yes that's very true actually. It was a very interesting take. Thanks as always for the great content!
There is no finite supply. Bitcoin is being duplicated thousands of times. It can be infinitely duplicated.
@@stevo728822 that is so wrong it is laughable.
@@stevo728822 that's very incorrect
Great content. Thank you!
Glad you liked it!
Mance Harmon or Leemon Baird of Hedera Hashgraph - two mature, computer science doctorates, life long entrepreneurs, and founders of the Hashgraph DTL (the successor of blockchain tech, low cost, scalable and governed by google, ibm, Tata comms, t-mobile, UCL uni, and others). They both know everything about crypto currency and it’s pros and cons, cryptography, computer science, and business.
Have a look at HEX - 40% APY interest paid in HEX, the price of HEX went up 263x this year. HEX has made millionaires and will continue to do so in 2021, best coin in crypto!
Future Thinkers Podcast. At least untill recently one of their big interests was cryptos and Blockchain.
Good job getting Jim on the channel 👍👍
Thanks Yazan it was generous of Jim to do the interview. Ramin
The future for Cypto currency is zero
@PensionCraft Absolutely the most knowledgeable and professional crypto expert that I've seen on TH-cam is Alex Saunders of Nuggets News. Interview him for sure!
Not investing a small amount in bitcoin or other digital assets seems irresponsible at this point
This could be life changing 👍
Excellent content again
Thanks again!
When citadel?
My mother's an artist, I grew up painting and drawing. Then I switched to video and eventually digital video art. Now my art work is posted on the internet for anyone to see and appreciate. I can go anywhere in the world and show people what I have created. This guy's art is stuck in a room where only he and his friends can view it and appreciate it. If he wants to take his investment with him he has to carefully package it up so that it won't get damaged and probably will need to insure it. I don't need to protect or insure my work because it's digital and I can take it anywhere. This is the power of global crypto currency.
I can just steal your phone and wallet and your entire life savings is gone. LOL
@@parallel38 your statement shows you know nothing about crypto wallets and security.
@@ReVoltAgefilms I've forgotten more about crypto than you would know in your entire lifetime.
@@parallel38 sure
Good video. Glen Goodman in the uk might be worth talking to about Bitcoin. He is often on vox markets podcast as the Bitcoin expert.
Hello the community
Thanks Ramin great interview. I want to start investing in bitcoin. Any recommendations on the platforms and how it works or which currency to buy?I made some research found coinbase, swissborg and binance. I'm a bit lost thanks for your support
@Rose Evelyn go scam somewhere else.
Wirex is a good platform. Can choose from a few cryptocurrencies but Bitcoin is thought to be the best
Keeping an open mind is synonymous with doing nothing
Hi The Superior Man did you notice Jim said he owns some Bitcoin? That's because he says you can't engage with an asset unless you've got skin in the game. Thanks, Ramin
I think BTC will go to at least $100K within the next two years before potentially retracing quite a bit. However, much more money will be made in the reputable alt coin projects (eg ETH, LINK, DOT and some sub $1B market cap coins) that have solid use cases and that will be pulled along by the BTC wind, doing many multiples of this. It is riskier but the upside is much greater.
When central banks issue their own digital currencies speculative Dog e coin etc will collapse.
I’ve long believed a gold hedge of 5-15% is worth it for a fear hedge. The benefit comes from the rebalancing, it doesn’t need a yield. I was one a very dogmatic bitcoin skeptic but my opinion is changing. Other cryptos like Ethereum make more sense to me than Bitcoin, because the blockchain have use cases - if you want to make use of the blockchain for smart contracts or whatever then you need ether to fuel the blockchain, so the coin itself is more like a commodity that others have a requirement for. The move from proof of work to proof of stake is also changing crypto currencies into yielding assets. But bitcoin is the one everyone knows, and at the end of the day they can’t make more of it faster than the Fed and the BOE et al can key more dollars, pounds, euros into a computer and lend them out to spendthrift governments. The arguments about yield still stand but we are now in a world where bonds have zero, or even negative coupons. So government bonds don’t have any yield either, so they are an also an asset reliant sole on what someone else is prepared to pay for them. At least Gold and Bitcoins don’t carry interest rate risk.
Your points make sense. But is it not fair to say that bonds although may not yield interest but are still backed by the country (its value) which has issued it?
Well, yea they are backed by the country that issued them, but that only really matters whilst there is trust in the issuer. Venezuela backs its currency and states that its currency has value, but its people don’t agree and instead choose to trade gasoline for cookies. It’s a similar, though less extreme situation in Argentina where people have been know to pay cash for luxury vehicles in the US and then keep them in the garage as a store of wealth back home because they don’ trust their currency. I wish it was inconceivable that such trust would ever be lost in the mighty green back or GBP, but with the move towards MMT with all the freshly printed stimulus check money etc, and decreasing trust in developed world governments and currencies by their own populations, I don’t think we can count that situation out anymore.
@@benjamincartledge8532 your points about Argentina are spot on. Argentina began the 20th century as one of the wealthiest places on the planet. In 1913, it was richer than France or Germany, almost twice as prosperous as Spain, and its per capita GDP was almost as high as that of Canada. This same spiral can play out in any country.
Hi Ramin, I think a great person to interview would be Preston Pysh. He comes from a finance background but also has a strong understanding of the technical aspects of crypto; he strikes a really nice middle ground between the two which I think viewers will appreciate. He often explores the space with a macro lens which I find really interesting.
@PrestonPysh on Twitter and youtube channel link here: th-cam.com/users/PrestonPysh
Thanks a lot, really good video :)
I see we have some mutual connections on crypto currency investment . Perhaps we could explore more profitable possibilities
Are you still looking to interview an expert on Bitcoin / Crypto?
ask someone younger, BTC is not for his generation. BTC will become exclusively for the wealthy, which is the opposite of what Satoshi wanted. It wont help the unbanked, regulators will see to that. It will just make wealthy folks wealthier, you just need to jump on the rocket.
True, I agree, other crypto currencies will be there to help the unbanked and free spirits
4 billion people don't even have internet yet some people seriously believed the "helping the unbanked" narrative was real. That was just a marketing gimmick, just like the "digital gold" tag.
All the former Wall Street traders that invaded the crypto space in late 2017 didn't do it to save the world, but to line up their pockets with the latest form of "sound money".
Thank for the video, I had a slightly different expectations from video... Less about what is fiat currency and bartering as I believe most of the audience would have sort of background. I like the fact that you keen on interviewing a Crypto expert...Looking forward to that
I have gold and Bitcoin. Also ammunition and firearms. Lately, I mostly wish I had more Bitcoin.
@George Kassabian And don't forget the Toilet Paper, stocks are running low due to panic buying.
@George Kassabian working on drones, landlines and artillery. Your shopping list is too high roller for me. We can ally our clans during the zombie apocalypse.
Great - that is exactly how I believe an interview should be done i.e ask a question and the just listen to the full answer - so many people when interviewing just set out to show they are as clever as the interviewee - well done and thanks
useless talk on bitcoin for sure . Both either don't understand or don't want to understand .
They've got your viewership and comment though...
You are right, especially about dogmatism. Being dogmatic is bad by definition. My mother said that once I got determined to do something, I would definitely persist. However, I don't fight an apparently losing chess game. Well, I am a master chess who still need to work on his end game. Nonetheless, I am all for open mindedness.
Get someone on your show who knows yhe value of bitcoin and ots network effect, trustless system, security etc. It is value for the internet. Bonds are finished so instutions will turn to gold and btc. through time.
Thanks Ramin. That was a very interesting interview. Yes, it's fascinating how many investors have an almost fanatical/religious stance towards various securities. That could be cryptocurrencies, precious metals, certain artists/works of art or even certain stocks. Regarding stocks I think Tesla is a very good example. Fundamentally, the valuation is completely crazy. Then again, it's got an incredibly powerful story. I can't think of another company that is on the same level there.
I definitely think it's important to keep an open mind about any of these things. Too many times something is ridiculed in the beginning and then later ends up proving the naysayers wrong.
Regarding interviewing someone in the Bitcoin/crypto space, I think it would be great if you got to interview the Wrinklevoss brothers. They are quite serious and have an interesting and intelligent perspective on Bitcoin and the future of cryptocurrencies.
Just picking up on your Tesla comment. To give an alternative view, I believe Tesla is undervalued. I don't like Musk, but they are building Giga plants in Shanghai, Berlin and Texas that will transform their production capacity. If they could improve build quality, they will have an insurmountable market position within 2 years.
@@simonr6165 I still feel the current market cap more than prices in all these future scenarios. Expectations are mega high. The current market cap is nuts and even Musk himself commented on how crazy it was when it was far lower.
Scott McNealy of Sun MIcrosystems said it best when he reflected on the dizzy valuation of his company during the dotcom mania from 20 years ago (lots of parallels with today I feel) by asking investors, 'What were you thinking?';
“At 10 times revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for 10 straight years in dividends. That assumes I can get that by my shareholders. That assumes I have zero cost of goods sold, which is very hard for a computer company. That assumes zero expenses, which is really hard with 39,000 employees. That assumes I pay no taxes, which is very hard. And that assumes you pay no taxes on your dividends, which is kind of illegal. And that assumes with zero R&D for the next 10 years, I can maintain the current revenue run rate. Now, having done that, would any of you like to buy my stock at $64? Do you realise how ridiculous those basic assumptions are? You don’t need any transparency. You don’t need any footnotes. What were you thinking?”
I think key appeal of Bitcoin is how difficult it is to confiscate and censor, it’s something you truly own. This is more relevant now as cash disappears and we hand our money over to fin-tech companies at the cost of privacy and being censored, it’s an important tool to help balance power; this could have something to do with its religious nature and why people so strongly about it.
One expert in crypto testified for a committee of the Canadian Parliament and US Congress Greek name... initials A.A...(will have to look up) check out Bitcoin Magazine for articles on Regulation re. Bitcoin Blockchain companies in etc. mining with the use of renewable energy in North America. Ie. BITFARMS.
I'm your typical wait and see kind a guy. Whilst I do like the idea of BTC, my thinking is that once governments and those who grease the wheels of the Capitalist system catch up with it they will formulate their own strategic plan and come up with something that will take over from it. This would be a real game changer as far as BTC is concerned. It's a case of watch this space!
Watch this space? It's already created a new all time high - 40k. Will break that again this year, next year and every year after.
@@davidwebb2318 absolutely, 80% of my investment portfolio is in crypto.
@@davidwebb2318 you clearly didn't even understand your own question.
You asked can I guarantee that with my own money, and my response was yes.
You never asked as to why I believe that.
I wouldn't call that a 'fresh' perspective, instead I would classify it as ignorance. Maybe talk to someone who understands Bitcoin at a deeper level next time. Also, I understand that dogma exists but don't confuse it with conviction.
The difference between someone like Jim and someone who only knows about crypto is breadth. Jim brings experience and a long history of successful investing which many others simply lack. Thanks, Ramin
@@Pensioncraft Lots of people out there who understand both. You should get in touch with Preston Pysh or Lyn Alden and have a PROPER conversation about Bitcoin. Also, I wouldn't lump Bitcoin and 'crypto' together. Bitcoin is very unique. I mean all this very respectfully by the way. I get great value from you're channel 👍
@@Pensioncraft Stanley Druckenmiller brings more experience and a longer history of more successful investing. I'd be listening to him before I listened to Jim.
@@heffernaninvesting7641 They would inevitably be biased towards BTC seeing as they are currently holding it.
Yep, bitcoin is something you should have just in case without getting crazy about it. The economy is definitively going to be in blockchain / crypto entirely at some point and COVID / great reset may help ... or it may take more time ... who knows
This is a good example of flapping ones gums. Talking a lot without saying anything.
You're right! This guy hasn't said anything!
It is all said implicitly and abstractly. You get it or you don't.
100%, please interview Simon Dixon. Thank you Ramin!
At least gold has some actual uses.
Bitcoin also has a use. Clearly it does have utility.
@@relobmit - What I mean is that even if the price of gold were to drop, it would never lose it's value entirely as it can always be used for something. Gold can be made into jewelry or used in electronics for instance. Bitcoin is like buying dollars or euros because you think the exchange rate will be more favourable at a later date. If it isn't, what are you going to do?
@@barnstar2077 I would respectfully argue the other way around. Even if gold *didn't* have other uses e.g. jewelry or industry, it would still have value as it is the substance with the most "moneyness" on Earth ( see theory of money).
Art has a rich history. It is one of the things that separates us from animals. When you buy art it is also something physical. To craft art takes skill and creativity. It does have a speculative side, but that is underpinned by centuries of critiques.
If everyone is talking about it it is too late ???
Good point h Mistry. Thanks, Ramin
Everyone? Hardly anyone is talking about it.
Exactly the same happened late 2018. Luckily sold most of my ETH & XRP into the rise!
BTC is rubbish and impractical! I don’t get the hype personally.
Only Cryptos which could be potentially useful are ETH & XRP imo
It depends on what your investment objective is. If you want a quick buck in the short term, go into stocks, as they will keep skyrocketing. If you are curious, then you can try BTC and learn.
His logic is not logical. I respect him as a person and he is clearly smart but the way he reasons when he refers to bitcoin is just short-sighted, not well founded...
And I am saying that as someone who is sceptical to bitcoin and fiat. Poor choice of speaker at least on that subject. Still appreciate the effort and content upload, thanks!
Bitcoin / gold is a hedge against the current debt based fiat system. If govt's can manipulate markets, print money diluting the value of the existing wealth, this is or should be a concern to us all. So my concern is in the current fiat system and I am loosing faith in it. So I have spent a lot of time researching Crypto, BTC, Defi etc as I see this areana becoming a safer bet.
Bitcoin and Gold can be manipulated as well. People with large holdings can rush the market with excess supply and drive prices way down and then buy back at lower prices. No investment article is safe from manipulation.
I agree. Everything is manipulated. But crypto in general has no counterparty. Gold too. So in a world of bad choices, crypto especially bitcoin right now and ethereum being the base of defi is a safer bet.
Men with guns argument was the best for fiat (this guy still following that religion maybe)! Does bitcoin have value? Dematerialised energy into hard money.. Kept secure by the most powerful decentralised computer network in the world. A Swiss bank account in your pocket with no third party intermediary. Never hacked. Best performing asset of the last 10 / 5 / 1 years.
Proof of work does not make something valuable..
I see many people are suggesting Simon Dixon as a good interviewee. I'm not so sure as he has an extremely negative view on the real world finance industry. My suggestion would be Raoul Pal (if you can get him) who is the CEO of Real Vision. He has an indepth knowledge of financial markets, the wider Macro economic situation and has now become a Bitcoin bull.
I personally see Bitcoin as an electronic commodity and as a hedge against a fiat currency meltdown.
Agree, +1 for a discussion with Raoul Pal: especially as it seems to be one of his channel’s preferred techniques for kicking ideas around on YT.
I was just thinking the other day how interesting an in depth discussion between Ramin and Raoul could be.🤞
Much appreciate all your great content Ramin, thank you.
I'd highly recommend for interview a youtuber, BCbacker, very analytical and technical orientated. He's very much focused on long-term trends and analysis which I think might suit your subscribers.
A refreshing interview by Jim. My issue with Bitcoin is that it was touted as a blockchain transactional commodity that provided nonrepudiation of each transaction and total integrity. With miners sucking the worlds energy supply validated Bitcoin transactions - at a relatively very small volume - what is the purpose of Bitcoin??? A digital sense of value - ok (as Jim said) if you believe it. But if it really can't be used as a transactional blockchain currency - then for me it's a busted flush......
Would love to see you chat with Andreas Antonopoulos about less of the financial stuff, which IMO is almost all speculation, and more of the fundamental stuff, such as about their actual utility over fiat currencies.
his voice is similar to agent Smith in the Matrix!
Never send a human to do a machine's job
Investing has become more and more speculative. By that I mean it is less and less driven by fundamentals. Central institutions have repeatedly intervened in an ever increasing number of markets. Their involvement have made fundamentals matter less and made speculation more attractive. Therefore I don't believe that speculative necessarily implies irrational in this kind of environment.
Surely the point of owning Gold (and Silver) is concern over the current monetary Debasement which is being effected by CBs worldwide. The PMs have been real 'money' for 5000 years; Fiat merely a recent and failed (IMO) experiment. Their ownership has nothing to do with yield but rather wealth-preservation, at which they have done pretty well over the millennia. Whether Bitcoin can adopt and fulfill this same role remains to be seen.
"When you are dogmatic, you turn your brain off." Well said, love the quote.
This guy's wrong. Many African countries are using crypto since they don't have a solid banking system.
True. I live in Nigeria and my currency's lost 30% of its value vis-a-vis the USD in the last year alone. I therefore gain from both the wealth preservation and capital gains perspectives by buying BTC. The 1 BTC a pal of mine bought two months ago has gained 85% due to these two factors.
@@folabiakin1 what I think is incredible is that going forward we have the technology to allow me to lend out crypto to entrepreneurs and gain a better return than I would from a bank. Bitcoin allows people to have personal wealth sovereignty and gives them power to control their own lives and future.
Btc @ 100k by 2024.
Btc @ 500k by 2030.
I've been a Bitcoin hodlr since 2015.
If Bitcoin is going to the moon then we haven't even left the stratosphere yet. £1m per BTC by 2025 i predict....but I'll never sell.
Bought my first Bitcoin at $642, it's been a mind-blowing ride watching things play out as people have been saying it would.
The world is slowly waking up to Bitcoin
So all i learned from this is this guy finds it interesting. No real analysis of the fundamentals or any in depth discussion. Fresh perspective? I do not think so
Yes, must admit I felt the same. So the price of "X" is driven by what someone else is willing to pay for it ? You have to admit it's not the most original insight. On the other hand, as someone with a small investment in BTC I take heart from the fact that many experienced market participants still seem to be sitting on the sidelines, slightly bemused by what's happening. If they were all screaming "buy!" it'd probably be time to rush for the exit.
@@chrisf1600 "If they were all screaming "buy!" it'd be time to get out.". You'll be buying the top.
You don't think the psychological and dogmatic aspect was interesting?
Interview 2 people Alex of Nuggets News pro BC and Prof Steve Keen against or arguments why beyond sentiment
I thought (and im certainly not fully "converted") that bitcoin was/is a fad were some people have made big bucks and others have fallen flat.
Where as gold "has value", but thinking more and more about the psychology and "mass / group" mentality that actually gives it value.
I now dont understand why i dont view these two "assets" the same?
I cant really answer that, but i cant give my daughter a bitcoin bracelet can i 🙄. Thats the best "argument" i can come up with for myself anyway.
I watched the full interview on Patreon and it did make me question some of my own views and biases.
I still cant see me buying bitcoin though, but i will buy physical silver / gold in future i am sure.
I am a huge believer that psychology/ sociology / philosophy and other behavioral and reasoning sciences hold the key to making at almost any trade / profession.
Learning about Isaac Newton's investing "strategy" did make me question my own self belief.
Thank you for sharing David! It's fresh to see someone looking at themselves in this way. I've been in this space since 2012 (BTC ~$13) and the quantum shift for me psychologically was watching the "next generation" buying non tangible items such as swords and armour at auction for online games. Our children will not be interested in buying physical gold and storing it in a safe when they get their inheritance, their values are different. Best wishes and good luck!
@@James_Sovereign good point well made
Excellent video as ever Ramin. I'd recommend an interview with Quinten Francois, author of 'De Bitcoin Revolutie' and the youtube channel 'Young and Investing'. He's extremely intelligent, articulate, data driven with a wealth of knowledge on crypto. Thanks!
bitcoin is the wild west and risky. gold/oil are the other extreme and dull as brick
I chose to invest in crypto as a hedge to US dollar because i felt the markets were manipulated as they rallied from the bottom in march due to stimulus, now markets at all time highs under these condition
So does Bitcoin.
Just Wow! amazing and inspiring, Thank you :)
I see everyone buying Bitcoin these days... 💸
The statement that crypto currency doesn't provide a return is false, and indicates some ignorance about crypto in general. There are multiple blockchain projects that use proof of stake, "staking", as there consensus mechanisms. Cardano, "ADA" provides consistent 5% returns, with no risk to the principal. And in today's market 5% is a hail Mary.
Agreed! 👍 Blockchain is what makes crypto currencies worth the effort. The guest and the host completely missed that. Very dissapointed.
The reality is these "investment" channels know very little about the crypto space in general.
The only blockchain technology that will be widely used in the future is a state regulated crypto. Noone I know off would sell their house or car for bitcoin.
You may not no anyone, but in Turkey people are selling their houses and cars for gold. I'm sure there are people in Turkey that are selling assets to buy Bitcoin.
I bought a house in Colombia with Bitcoin and sold an online business for Ethereum.
I would
Why are your eyes so red? Are you ok?
I’m fine thanks Mr_E_Man 007, I just foolishly managed to get shampoo in them when I was washing my hair. Ramin
that is called weed eyes
My only substance abuse is tea with two teabags @@kikin310. I like it so strong that it's got a crust on it! Thanks, Ramin.
I like the idea of bitcoin, although I just can’t bring myself to invest for 3 main reasons:
1) One of it’s main selling points is anonymity, no government will allow such transactions widely across the economy
2) Noting about it is unique - another crypto with similar or better properties could be created tomorrow
3) Pretty much everyone I know that owns bitcoins has purchased them to sell at a profit - very few care about the fundamentals. Greater fool theory!?!
Just some clarifications to these points.
1) ALL bitcoin transactions and purchases are publicly available on its blockchain ledger. It is the opposite of anonymity. Law enforcement can use the ledger to track all fund transfers. This has already been performed. The Bitcoin community is very ept to illegitimate hackers of exchanges/criminals etc and can and have traced funds to the criminals or surveil the funds so they won't transact in fear of being caught
2) Yes there are many cryptocurrencies but what gives them value (in one sense) is there 'hash power'. Hash power arises from the number of nodes (computers) performing the work of the blockchain (miners). I confess to not being an expert, but the greater the hash power, the more expensive it is to perform a 51% attack (think of this as hacking the blockchain).
As there are a huge number of 'nodes' in the BITCOIN blockchain, it has a huge financial disincentive to be hacked. Other cryptocurrencies have no where near (in the order of 1000s of fold) the hash power of the bitcoin blockchain. So just as their are many fiat currencies, noone wants the Venezuelan peso over the USD , hierarchy exist in mosr asset classes really.
3) The 'Greater Fool' theory can be argued to every form of 'store of value'. The beauty of the bitcoin store of value is that it's 'monetary policy' is fixed or better yet decentralised. No-one/centralised authority can tinker with it one year to the next. Its supply is fixed, or 'pristine capital' in the words of Raoul Pal. As much respect as I have for 'quants' and financial gurus, bitcoin's philosophy is simple - delayed gratification. It cannot be manipulated in the long run. (Short term price fluctuations obviously, but fundamentals are non-negotiable, unlike many other forms of value, especially fiat currency)
.... and Bitcoin is another fiat currency with an intrinsic value of almost nothing (except for maybe the Block Chain technology).
@@englishpayerofgermantaxes8186 Nope. Supply is fixed. Fundamentals non-negotiable. Immutable. Fungible. Censorship resistant. Divisible. Easily transferable. So many advantages. Hard not to see a bright future.
@@MrFordm03
When I go to work I actually don't want 'money' in payment .... what I really want is food, water, clothing, fuel etc. but I am prepared to accept some commodity which I can exchange for what I need. What I absolutely don't want is paper fiat currency or fiat cryptocurrency both of which have an intrinsic value of close to zero. Give me precious metals with real intrinsic properties like gold and silver any day.
@@englishpayerofgermantaxes8186 Bitcoin has absolutely ZERO intrinsic value, right?
So for the first time in history, what does the opportunity to connect your life's value on global scale, without 'middle-men' count for? Thinking face
Just numbers on a screen ...
Fiat has some utility, it is used to pay taxes, so it creates demand and creates value, also demand is created when old debt is repaid.
Why just Bitcoin, there are so many other cryptos out there which can be used similarly to Bitcoin?
Only Bitcoin is decentralised to a meaningful extent where it is owned by everyone and controlled by no-one. It's also the most secure network in existence.
The network effect. It's why Amazon has such a huge market cap while every other online retailer makes pennies.
No. There can't be used like Bitcoin. They all have different use cases, which is the point of a cryptocurrency in the first place.
When an asset experiences an increase in interest due to its price accumulation and not due to its intrinsic properties = bubble.
if you didnt buy bitcoin when it crashed to 5500 earlier in march this year, then youve got no business buying it now at 18k
I'll let Grayscale know immediately, perhaps they can get a refund?
You better tell that to all the financial companies and professional investors. Also might want to mention it to PayPal, Coinstar Fidelity... Many companies now are offering services to their customers. If financial institutions, hedge funds and the like put allocate even 0.5 percent to crypto the prices will shoot through the roof.
One of these days we'll get you onto the Bitcoin Bandwagon! ;)
You never know @cameron d stranger things have happened! Thanks Ramin
@@Pensioncraft excellent ahaha
Simon Dixon is the best uk expert on crypto. I think he would be good for your audience
Hi @Barnaby Meredith yes I think he would be a popular choice. Thanks Ramin
Simon Dixon coming soon. The interview is done and I now just need to get it ready to publish. Thanks Ramin
Bitcoin isn't a religion, it's the reality.