What You NEED To Know About The Timeline For FSD (Full Self Drive)
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 26 ก.ย. 2024
- It's the nuclear fusion of the car world - a technology that is always just around the corner but that never actually arrives. But the seeds have been sown for what promises to be one of the most transformative technological revolutions of the modern era. So to find out what's REALLY going on, stick around as Dave Takes It On.
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You can perfect self driving as much as you want but its other people that dont have self driving that will be the problem
Being a Tesla driver, I'll believe we're only a couple years from genuinely achieving FSD for the UK when they can, at a bare minimum, eliminate phantom braking on London streets. This occurs almost every time I drive if autopilot is on since it can't deal with oncoming cars on our small streets, swerving in/out to avoid parked cars and cyclists. It's one thing to achieve FSD with no interventions on a sunny day in Phoenix. Doing the same with a camera only based system on a single lane road during our lovely winters is another level of intelligence. Im hoping we get it soon but not holding my breath.
Exactly. Elon's approach is fundamentally flawed. Get yourself on r/selfdrivingcars if you want the really non fanboy view of self driving, be it Tesla or others.
Ultimately, cameras (like human eyes) can be blinded by low blight sunshine.
Fog / low light drizzle etc.
FSD at junctions has incredibly poor peripheral view, and has been the cause of many an accident.
Poor camera placement.
Yes Elon, humans uses eyes (and other senses) whist driving, but we can lean forward, twist and turn to get a better view.
Static cameras cannot.
@@stuartburns8657the FSD cars have more cameras than humans have eyes . You can only look In one direction at once.
@@patdbean That's lovely but my points stand. Bad placement for high speed junctions.
Telsa camera can hardly detect rain, which is why wipers are notoriously bad.
Then if you have multiple cameras, great. But if they're all suffering from bright light (at least the front facing ones) does it matter.
Then you have the likes of Tesla insurance, which dynamically rates your driving to in part determine a price.
Problem is the phantom breaking which elevates your premium even further.
Thanks Elon
@@stuartburns8657 do we know the reason for the phantom breaking? Shadows being seen as objects maybe?
@@patdbean Apparently it's been an issue to varying degrees thoughout AP and FSD.
Don't own one personally, but it's still quite prevalent in various forums
Britain leading the way in self driving technology 😂😂, talk about delusional.
I can’t wait to get fsd on my car. I love using advanced autopilot on the motorway, it makes driving so easy and relaxing. Just the thought of having fsd on normal roads is awesome, just set the Nav, pull the lever, and off it goes.
Thank you; really enjoyed this episode
Just found your channel. Like your style!
The cars are or can get into trouble in edge cases... but its becoming better quicker with more time (much more time) between interventions.
Thanks Dave!
Great explanation and this is exactly how I see things going. Those using FSD will have little chance of causing an accident but it will await more people getting it to remove the threats of human drivers and short tempers! The more my car can drive the easier and more relaxed it is. I can't wait for this option.
C'mon Dave, you are a grown man. No insurance needed? Fire? Theft? 3rd party liability? (FSD gonna be 100.000000% no-crash ? (no)) , other cars that are Not self drive?
Have you ever seen a FSD video do an overtake in a situation when you are stuck behind a granny stuck behind a 40mph lorrry on a 60mph A Road type scenario (US equivalent)?
No, you have never seen that, I challenge you to find me a FSD video of a FSD car making that judgement call and pulling out to safely and legally overtake on a NON- freeway.
Does it know that when I am driving down my high street and I see an old lady struggling to cross and I DECIDE I want to stop to let her pass as no other sod will help her?
Does it know that when I am struggling to part in the town centre on a weekend I can park in a plethora of unused solicitors etc car parks as they are not used weekends ( despite the illegal wheel clamping warning signs)? FSD will get 99% there, but only 100% will cut it. Looking forward to $TSLA tanking after 8/8 - its clearly a pump to rescue a dying company. 10 years straight he has been promising FSD. He is diverting to this ridiculous robotaxi as a goldmine as he knows he can;t make a$25K car at a profit. Why will robotaxi be a godmine when Uber is not profitable after years of burning $35bn of losses? Only difference is no driver, but the oncost is depots and realy people needed to clean the kebab wrappers, chewing gum, vomit etc from the cars. Robotaxi has no viable route to profit.... Uber showed us that.
Strange that Tesla, Mercedes, BMW, Ford Apple Google Waymo Baidu are all spending billions on full self drive. Are they all wrong?
The point is that although fsd may not yet be able to cope with every situation that a human can, the training of neural networks is similar to the way human brains work and they will improve to the point that they are much more able than humans to cope with every situation. At that point it will be the robotaxi operator who will bear liability in any crashes.
I've seen examples of fsd cars letting people cross the road, even though they aren't on a crossing.
@@davetakesiton Did you wonder why the Behemoth Apple pulled out? They obviously knew it was not a cash generating machine
@@jamesfahy2935 So have I, but I want that to be MY decision, not the 'bot' making the decision
My car has self park.I don't use it often but the other day a tight spot it parked spot on between two cars.At 74 Iam going to miss that help in our next car.It will happen not to far in the future self drive or far more assistant whilst driving.
Point 1) Having read the proposed Automated Vehicles Bill, one thing stands out: that Privately owned vehicles must have a "user in charge" occupant present who is licences to drive said vehicle, even if he is in the back seat! So, for example, You couldn't legally pack your child off to school on their own and have the car return empty! Such activities would be the prerogative of companies with appropriate structure, control and liability insurance etc. (I guess that individuals may be able to join a club set up for that purpose?)...
Point 2) I feel there is much further to go before point to point autonomous driving should be legally possible. While AI can learn to cope with every day situations, how can it cope with the unexpected?
No amount of driving video analysis is going to teach it what a human learns to recognise in non driving situations! What about the nuances of courteousness offered by other drivers? The flash of a headlight can be interpreted only by context, will AI jump queues?
A human can take avoiding action and assess the mass or behaviour of an obstacle in the road: how does AI react to a harmless newspaper sheet blowing in the path of a car compared to a 40 gallon drum rolling of the back of a preceding lorry (they could look the same to a camera) or floods, stones, a bird , cat ,dog, hedgehog, stray cow, horse etc in the road! A human can recognise most things easily and assess whether it's better to have a minor accident than a major one. Hitting the newspaper at 70mph should be harmless. The drum, could kill you! How is AI going to learn that!
Is it going to give animals a chance? It's going to have to recognise and decide if it's safe to swerve around a Hedgehog, slow for it, put it between the wheel and hope for the best or does it not care?
One thing AI can NEVER do is CARE! Care comes from a position of emotional empathy. Impossible for AI.
So I would be concerned that the law could allow autonomous vehicles on the road that could ,for example drive through a sea of migrating toads or a family of grouse or chickens on a country road etc.
I agree AI never cares; it's just programmed to obey the laws and not to crash. Do the young drunk, drugged up tearaways in their hot hatchbacks care when they speed at 60mph outside schools? Or drive through red lights. Or overtake when totally unsafe to do so?
@@davetakesiton I doubt if the drugged up or drunk tearaways you refer to would elect to You self-driving in the circumstances. They will probably Drive it themselves anyway!
I find eye contact with other road users very important, also pedestrians. Can’t see FSD doing that, also what happens when 2 Teslas on FSD come to a pinch point at the same time?
Cheers Dave
For Tesla specifically, Elon has REPEATEDLY promised full self driving is "coming next year" for about a decade now.
It is finally ready in the US, but I would not expect anything beyond the US any time soon, and I certainly wouldn't pay for it with the promise of "coming soon"
Toyota has promised solid state batteries for the last 10 years! FSD is finally here, where are Toyota solid state batteries or indeed their EVs
@@davetakesiton big difference is that Toyota are not asking for you to pay up front for a "coming soon" feature, whereas Tesla is asking £6.5k for almost nothing.
I have a Tesla and I would upgrade to FSD in a heartbeat if it was actually available today. Not on the repeatedly broken promises of Mr Elon "I'm going to have a tantrum and fire the entire supercharger team on a whim" Musk.
It might be more expensive by time it's available, which is what he said to his US customers until it actually became available and he halved the price almost immediately, but that's a risk I'm willing to take.
Something I haven't seen discussed is the effect fsd will have on the railways. I am sure it will make them obsolete. Most people would choose to sit in a comfortable, private robotaxi that takes them door to door. A very significant proportion of rail travellers will switch to robotaxis, making the railways so uneconomic to run that they close down.
IF it ever happens.
Also, do try to remember Elon isn't your Friend.
Just like Uber, they came in offering a new, less pricey service and the drivers where decently rewarded.
This is all funded by private equity, who can afford to lose hundreds of billions squeezing out say traditional non Uber taxi alternative.
Then, when they've done so, the end customer are paying much more for it was the old taxis.
So careful what you wish for.
So commuter rail disappears.
You honestly think having those 1.4 billion journeys moved to the roads is a better alternative?
Controlled by Enron Musk?
The UK congested roads with an extra 1.4 billion journeys, all the potholes, repairs, tyre usage.
Not very eco what so ever.
The switch from railways is of course possible, but at least for commuting that could lead to worst congestion. The advantage of FSD ( robotaxis) may however be in the “last mile “ issue of public transport, ie once you get to close to your final destination by train a robotaxi can take you to your final destination without you having to worry about a local bus ( which may not run very frequently) or non available conventional taxi service.
@@peterjones6640 That's a more reasonable scenario Peter.
Its a shame all these billions and trillions are not poured into public transport to begin with
@@peterjones6640Last mile makes a lot more sense - fleets of Robotaxi’s at train stations, pre-booked and just getting on with it seamlessly. Can’t see them replacing a lot of longer rail journeys.
Absolutely not, commuter journeys , and city journeys will always need a mass transit solution , purely for roadspace reasons. Even though I have an EV I still drive to a suburban/urban train or metro station or park&ride solution outside city centres.
I admire your faith in AI teaching FSD to drive safely, I’m a bit more sceptical. What do you think would result in the least road accidents? Unsupervised full self-driving or supervised self-driving?
The UK government says FSD
@@davetakesiton I can’t remember the last time the UK government got anything wrong, can you?
Unsupervised FSD by far, supervised FSD is already 11 times better than humans, meaning there are 11 times as many miles between accidents not considering who to blame
@@casperhansen826 As you say “supervised FSD is already 11 times better than humans” But do we have any evidence that Unsupervised FSD is better than this? This is my concern.
Afternoon mate
Totally correct Dave, now (2024) the A.I. is at the "teenager learning to drive" stage. Unlike teenager... the A.I. will be faster and safer. By 2025 it will be out...
We both use FSD now for 90% of our driving works very very well
My present car has a sort of a semi autonomous self drive feature. Having experienced this I would have to say that while it is good it certainly cannot be fully trusted, too much happens that the self drive simply cannot cope with, steep corners for instance the car has problems dealing with this without corrections mid corner. As I said it does do quite a lot on its own but I would never trust it without myself ready to put input in when necessary. Full self drive in my opinion is a feature that should never be fully trusted.
I had about 12 driving lessons and I passed first time I did a bit of driving when I was about 13 with my old friend and his dad had a Farm
2 lessons, 1 week practice at 17 :)
It's coming for sure, but it will take a while even for Tesla to cope with European City and Village streets , but it will come. Even my humble MG has a level of assistance unheard of before EV adoption, that I use most of the time. Adaptive Cruise on most of the time, and lane centreing on main A-roads and Motorways.
I have Model3 Highland. Sometime on adaptive cruse control the car just puts on the breaks if cars are coming towards me. Is the problem that the car doesn't trust me. This lead me not to trust the cruse on the car. I don't thing the UK road are good enough for self drive. What would self drive make of the UK pot holes ?. The car would spend half its life in service centre.
I loved driving but after a bit its not so good with all the fools on the roads today
And it is getting worse on the road.Driving is no fun anymore.
Too many morality issues for me to trust FSD. If the car cannot avoid a crash for whatever unforeseen reason, what option does it choose - 4 old ladies in a Morris Minor, or the young lad in a hot hatch, or consider the old man on a zebra crossing or a women pushing a pram on the pavement. I can't see any amount of AI learning could deal with that
Same applies to an ICE car! Not relevant.
I would be delighted to have a car (or subscribe to a car scheme) which was full self driving. My only concern would be if the FSD required you to take control of the car in an emergency situation, very difficult to react that quickly if you had to take control, if it wasn’t necessary in FSD then fine. It is possible that FSD would open the way for those who current,y cannot drive to have use of a car ( especially if the robotaxi idea took off). I am not sure though that FSD would necessarily reduce congestion, more people would be able to use a car, the same journeys are likely to be undertaken , yes the cars may use the road space more effectively but now instead of driving the kids to school on your way to work or the shops, you get the robotaxi to do that whilst you go off in another direction. In regard to accidents it would perhaps be sub optimal to have FSD cars on the road with non FSD cars? I could see in the future that all cars would be mandated to be FSD and no one would be allowed to actually drive a car.
Yes all good points. Taking over is a non-issue. If it is fully self driving it probably won’t have a steering wheel or pedals and if it did, they would be deactivated. Traffic could actually be reduced: first they would take the least congested routes but ultimately they would offer ride share, say one robotaxi picks up 5 kids all going to the same school
2023 1.4 billion rail journeys.
To imagine even half of those getting replaced with Robotaxi's from a ecological perspective would be a disaster.
I'm 50, and I think we'll see a form of automated driving in my lifetime.
I have however been on r/selfdrivingcars (reddit) so if you want the non fanboy / non curated version of what its like go take a look.
Then afterwards, ask yourself, you would place your family and loved ones into one of Elon's Robotaxi's, which incidentally won't have a steering wheel so no manual overrides?
I hope you answer no I wouldn't.
Given the current congestion and poor state of the roads, adding millions more pothole creating, tyre burning vehicles is so backwards as to be cringeworthy
Sounds great except for the hundreds of thousands of people who work for a living in driving jobs. Just what we need, more people on the dole. Who's going to pay for them? I enjoy driving. I'm happy the way it is.
FSD is about as useful and functional as a waterless urinal.
19:10 about 1700 deaths a year in The uk.
I watch a lot of fsd videos but I haven't seen one where the car reverses from a dead end and reroutes. Can you give a link to such a video?
It's currently FSD supervised at present. But of a difference and yes that's to be resolved.
@@djtaylorutube Dave said it does that currently.
@@jamesfahy2935 he did, I think he's wrong.
Tesla FSD (Supervised) Has Improved Massively! Join Us For A Drive with v12.3.6
Out of Spec Reviews
Maybe in certain parts of the USA, but it’s many years away globally, even in the UK. Nothing to do with the technology, everything to do with human nature.
We regularly accept bad human drivers, countless deaths snd injuries and generally bad road manners, but we won’t when cars are fully driven by software. It’s naive in the extreme to think we can suddenly switch over to FSD and all will be well, it will take years of trials globally to allow full adoption of this.
One mistake with a fatality or bad injury proven to be FSD’s fault and they could suspend the licence of it indefinitely. Humans won’t accept computers make errors I’m afraid.
I do expect one day we’ll have loads of FSD out there globally but as someone in my 50’s, I really doubt I’ll see it, although I hope I’m wrong.
Government just passed law saying next year
Hi Dave, maybe I'm out on a limb here but I personally do not require FSD that is why I learnt to drive. Thinking of it logically if you have FSD why would there be any need to pass a driving test in the future as you don't need to do anything but tell the car where you want to go? All the best.
Yeah it's got me beat why anyone would pay to have it tbh.
Driving isn't that hard as modern cars are very comfortable to operate generally and I really wouldn't trust a computer anyway.
Seems to me they're trying to find a solution to something that really isn't much of a problem for most people.
There are drives in the countryside that I enjoy. There other kinds of drive that I would like to delegate. Trips around the M25 or any long motorway journey. Stop go travel. Busy cities surrounded by bikes, pedestrian, cross traffic and just constant hassle. Ideally we should all maintain the kind of focus we had when doing our driving test, but that's hard work. I don't always want to do hard work. I tend to feel that I am driving better when I am relaxed, but that's probably why Autopilot is ten times safer on Highways and FSD is five times safe in cities. However, I will concede that FSD takes us further towards passivity and dullness, that I might fill with more TH-cam! 🙂 Nonetheless, I want it.
I still think that fsd down a single track country lane in this country won't be possible for some time yet.
Meeting a large tractor towing a solace trailer coming the other way and having to remember where the last suitable passing place was (probably a field entrance) and having to reverse back into it....
I'm also nervous about this software largely being written by the group of people who are the riskiest group of drivers on the roads; young males...
80% of all accidents are caused by human error. Do you not want our roads safer? I have so many better things I could be doing than holding a steering wheel with my feet constantly on the accelerator or brake staring constantly at the road ahead fully alert in case someone else does something silly. To me it’s the difference between hand writing letters or dictating emails; it’s what we used to do but it’s so much better and quicker now
@@davetakesiton Yeah I saw the Tesla that didn't see the train in the fog recently.
I wonder how many of these things get settled before it gets to court?
I really can't see many countries allowing it until it's proven infallible and if you have to monitor it then you won't be doing much else at the same time.
Interesting to see how insurance companies handle issues as well imo.
People seem to be trying to move the focus from all the other things going on with them atm.
How surprising.
As we all know for a self driving car to operate correctly sensors are required. Sensors are notoriously a failure component in all cars and as such I would never rely on sensors alone. I will always be steering the car and using my own judgment in all driving conditions. At the end of the day it’s peoples life’s that are in danger if you just rely on software and sensors, I could never ever forgive myself if my self drive car killed someone. Humans motor skills are far superior than sensors and software in self driving cars.
The reason the UK government wants FSD is that 80% of all accidents are caused by human error.
Your human senses fail all the time. You might sneeze, have a heart attack, be distracted, machines are more reliable than humans, why would a solid state camera with no moving parts fail?
That’s weird, I must have been extremely lucky then, I’ve never had a sensor fail on my electric cars. As the Statistics show, the vast majority of collisions are determined to be due to human error, whether that’s down to driver inattention, driving errors, or medical problems. Most people think they are better drivers than they actually are - we’ve all made mistakes or done stupid things when driving, let’s face it. Human reaction times are also not perfect, otherwise, nobody would rear-end another car on the motorway. Self-driving cars are unlikely to eliminate all accidents, but if they can reduce that 80% human error figure, then it has to be the way to go.
@@Porrohman19 I agree with everything except for rear end collisions being due to human reaction times. They are due to the stupidity of the human being unaware of his reaction time. (And it usually is a 'his ')
@@jamesfahy2935 Yes, that’s a very fair point and another reason for self-driving cars. I use adaptive cruise control a lot, because I know it will keep me a safe distance from the car in front and react to cars ahead slowing abruptly at least as well as I can (and in all honesty, with far fewer errors).
Tesla, get back to us when FSD can do a proper overtake like this th-cam.com/video/UNOZA3T5afo/w-d-xo.html
.....or show me FSD doing such an overtake NOT on a freeway / motorway. This is the REAL driving that Tesla has never shown us, and I suspect is years away.
Why would you care about passing the lorry? You can just sit back and watch Dave on TH-cam while the car keeps driving for you, the car doesn’t get impatient or annoyed by the lorry, it just drives.
@@Joeb4iley In the UK on 'A' roads, lorries have a 40mph speed limit, cars have a 60mph speed limit. It is a part of good driving to (safely) overtake legally restricted slower moving vehicles.
@@pvelectronics4291 it’s 50
My 8 yr old thinks this is a great idea. Cyclists kings of the road. Swerve in front of a vehicle and it slams on the brakes. Jaywalking pedestrians can cross anywhere without warning. Demonstators have a field day. Demonstration of one brings city to a halt. HAPPY DAYS
This is bad news if you're an insurance company lol no bad drivers How are they going to make money lol