Sadly MSM are failing to sufficiently report the increasing frequency of catastrophic impact events. For example, not one mention on the BBC this past week about the catastrophic flooding events in Vermont or Montréal. I was astonished over the omission, so much so I complained to them about it.
@@MarkHopewell LOL Swiss also have state run media and they did mention 2 rain events, including calling one a 1,000 year flood, with nary a mention of climb at.
Doesn't fit with their pre planned "Record fires because of drought" scam narrative. (there isn't record fires, they've just expanded the area they monitor into the Arctic, and they are more stinky because they are volcanic dike insertion into tarsands and peat initiated. The only thing you need to fear is those who seek to scare you, and by that control you. There is nothing unusual about what Jason is talking about. There is not an IceSheet on the area Jason is talking about anymore. This Ocean heating and CO2 degassing is driven by 59 and 210 year Earth-moon-sun orbital parameters that cause the equatorial circumference to expand by 10 kilometers while the Earth's polar radius decreases by 1.5km. And back again. This is now known to be the prime driver of plate tectonics, and as the moons orbit tilts more or less steeply relative to the plane of the solar system, also draws the weather belts Further towards the poles. This causes peaks in volcanism, particularly the seafloor spreading vulcanisim similar to recently observed occuring in Iceland and under the Greenland and Antarctic Icesheets. And in the deep Arctic and Southern Oceans. The atmospheric gas record from Ice Cores has proven worthless, as the volitility is on far shorter timescales than the 5000 to 9000 years that it takes to seal gas into an ice sheet. Leaf stomata proxies, and speleotherm, and sediment cores have taught us that there has been warm and cold oscillation on around a 230 year cycle for the last few thousand years, we are past the hot peak, we are not as high in greenhouse gases or temperature now as the medieval warm period. And we now know that subglacial volcanism has melted Greenland and Antarctica Ice sheets back past where they are today, and then the glaciers have advanced again fed by the enhanced evaporation from volcanically heated polar seas, many times in the holocene, the last 20000 years. Tell Jason to catch up with the science.
I can never work out how people can claim that nothing has changed, reporting such things as the high tide mark on a pier being the same now as it was when their grandfather was a boy - as if a man in his 70's actually took any notice at all of tide marks when he was a child. But the number of people who then thread such comments with equally ridiculous claims that temperatures, or rainfall, or hurricane seasons, etc are all the same as they were 50, 60, 70 years ago - when the science and meteorological records proves they are far from the same - it's just astonishing. I took have worked and spent much of my leisure time outdoors all my life, and even though I live in one of the least affected regions of the world - it is very clear to me that the climate has greatly changed. Nothing is the same. Indeed, it puzzles me that scientists claim the atmosphere has only warmed by 1.5 degrees. Comparing temperatures of my childhood home past and present, the summer highs have increased by 12-13 degrees Celsius. Temperatures there would be intolerable for me now, and like the fast disappearing insect life, I have moved further and further north. The anti-climate change comments have lessened a little in the year since you wrote your comment. But I don't like the way that the remaining closed-minded deniers now label environmental concern as 'woke.' That goes to show how increasingly desperate they are to put everything they want to blame their personal failings on in one big basket. The most recent videos on climate change are now very troubling, giving us less and less time it seems. Indeed, the world feels like it's going mad right now, and tensions here in the UK are breaking. I'm only glad my only child didn't want to bring children into this world. At least he has enjoyed his childhood and youth in his own way. And I can say that I saw Nature in my own country when it was still pretty good. The decline now is just awful. The disappearing insects is having a very severe effect this year, birds vanishing too, and very few amphibians and reptiles to be seen. I think this 6th extinction is going to happen quite fast, in comparison to the previous 5.
I was in Chicago in the 90’s, one night saw 17 inches of rain, down by the Gulf of Mexico, a foot of rain is also possible. This however is mind bending, the revenge of Gaia and feedback loops are as James Lovelock said, accelerating.good work, by this fellow here, I’m a layman and I get it.
bitkrusher, our government has done more than admit it. It rejoined the Paris Climate Accord and devoted more money and resources than ever before in the huge infrastructure bill that passed last year.
Nice presentation! And wow, the detail is incredible. Congratulations on passing the hazardous tent test. Assuming that was your tent in +100km/hr winds. I just couldn't help but think you must have been wondering at the time if the tent was going to fly off up the glacier.
The trickery about carbon capture is It'll take as much or more energy than we took from the hydrocarbon in the first place to fix it back in solids. Not to mention the waste heat we would create to add to the mix of an already warmer planet.
@@voidisyinyangvoidisyinyang885 they have to say something other than our society is going to collapse and the population is going to dramatically drop in the next few years.
The model presented at 5:14 triggers a memory of Colorado Front Range weather called "terrain-anchored convective events." Could that be analogous to what's happening in Greenland? Do the mountains inland from US West Coast create a similar pattern? When thinking about our atmosphere and patterns of vertical and horizontal circulation I think it important to realize how using vertical exaggeration in visual representations can give us a distorted mental image and basic misunderstanding of the process. The first feature of the troposphere that we should be aware of is it's incredible shallowness. Rapids, and standing waves. Like the Chinook 70mph stiff breezes that frequent Boulder, and those magnificent lee-clouds.
Thank you Mr. Box for this very clear warning. I hope the right people see/hear about it! The part that should worry them, (us too) is the data that is NOT included in your ice sheet models. Depending on just what the effects of that data are on the ice sheets, our entire calculation of how fast the ice sheets will melt could be seriously wrong. The difference between millimeters of sea level rise per year, and centimeters of sea level rise per year, may not sound like a big difference, but it compounds year over year. I really hope I'm wrong about the melting speeding up, but that's the conclusion I come to from the type of data not in the models currently being used. This is important, because what we don't know is coming, we can't plan for and that will hit us like a sledgehammer in coming decades.
No, I think you are spot-on. The models predicting ice sheet melt are more like setting a timer next to an ice cube on a plate, discounting a myriad of effects that hasten the process taking place in nature, most of which will probably take us by surprise.
Another factor that I believe is not properly accounted for regarding Greenland is the topography of the bedrock. Greenland is like a bowl with a huge ring of mountains and a central area below current sea level. A small rise in sea level is all that is required to lead to destabilization of the center of the ice sheet.
@@tedg1278 Ah yes. That seems to make sense. But it may be compensated (although I do not know at what speed this process takes place) by the bedrock rising, as the pressure of the ice on top of it is reduced due to melt.
I was a weather forecaster at Thule 2007-2014. Worked a lot with the NASA Ice recon guys and other science researchers through those years. Your reports have always intrigued me and this latest fits the bill. Thank you! I miss working and living at Thule.
I am astounded by your delivery Prof. I would be on the ceiling screaming. I may have to watch this many times to get the full massage/lesson. Thank you for Being.
I frequently comment elsewhere that any human that lives to their full life expectancy and are currently 60 years old, they will all not just witness these catastrophic changes elsewhere but also experience them directly.
Thanks…. Good job Jason…. Your careful, deliberate, well paced explaination makes for an easy to understand, and interpret what is really at hand…. Hang on to your butt, the time is now, or never…
I grew up near Bailey Colorado and I have seen change here in our climate. This year I will be 60. I remember 40 years ago scientist telling us what was going to happen to our planet if we didn't change our ways. We are definitely experimenting on our own existence.
I saw the mass balance loss of the Greenland Ice cap [the newly exposed rock] from Etah [Smith Sound] down to Upernavik in 2008 and it was staggering. The ice cap looked black. Same with northern Ellesmere Island ice caps where I worked.
"Greenland ice sheet mass balance from 1840 through next week." (Mankoff et al., 2021). If you examine Fig.2 on page 5, you will see there would be no correlation with the exponential increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide (280ppm to 420ppm) and the change in the annual Mass Balance Sum shown in the paper. Indeed there have been periods of increasing mass of the Greenland ice cap in the 1940's, 70's, 80's and 90's. (Remember CO2 was rising all the time.) The Greenland ice sheet is thought to contribute 0.7mm/yr to sea-level rise, so 54mm by 2100 (just over 2 inches). That sounds small because it is small. Also an accounting error. More recently Greenland Total Ice Mass Balance rate of loss reached its maximum in 2012 but the trend rate of loss has been diminishing ever since. That's while we've added 500 million tonnes of CO2 to the atmosphere (14% of total human emissions). The average annual loss is 0.005% of the total mass (around 3 million gigatonnes). That's neglible. Come back in 20,000 years.
Swiss Cheesification of ice. Faster than expected. Quite the strong message about stopping fossil fuels, and maybe using the only carbon capture technique we have today that works? I've proposed that students be taught renewables as well as uses of hemp & bamboo at a Swiss professional school. It initially was accepted in early 2018 before it was blocked by the fossil fuel lobby. Surprisingly no climate group supported this idea. Greta and her group rejected it at SMILE in Lausanne. But 2 weeks ago one member of FFF Sweden expressed support, and so I wrote another letter. The school hasn't answereed but the local OECD is interested. Maybe someone might give a call to EPAC Bulle and express support?
Ironically this video hits as VT is being hit with a second river of rain predicted to drop 14 more inches just days after the rain fall mentioned in this video. I am watching it from NH wondering how bad the flooding will be here today.
The Vermont flooding is yet another wake-up call in the ever increasing number of wake-up calls stretching across the nation. And yet those with the ability to take action are still asleep. Good luck with this next round of flooding. Some parts of the U.S….and the planet….might be safer from extreme weather but nobody is completely immune.
I am not in the US , but just saw a video on my weather channel forcast that said an extremely fast rising flash flood in Pennsylvania has washed cars off a road, with at least 3 dead already. Terribly sad. Stay safe, and in place if you can.
Thank you Jason and please keep sharing these video's, they really help me and others I'm sure when trying to explain to friends the magnitude of our climate problems.
Thanks so much for patiently explaining this part of the complex situation we're in. I'm so glad you're doing this, as bad as data reveals are. Cheers!
I got stuck at work in Solvang California when all possible highways back home to Goleta California were flooded by 20+ inches of rain in a 36 hour period in February 2006 (maybe 2005 or even 2007)... when weather stations in Santa Ynez, & Santa Barbara recorded all time 24/48 hour historic precipitation records for the continental US. I worked in a newer building with a flat roof that sounded and looked like it was ready to collapse. I remember hitting refresh on Cal-Trans highway information page many times that day. I saw some photos of the ridiculously huge boulder that fell, blocking the pass between Santa Barbara & Santa Ynez, very close to the station that gave the highest precipitation readings in US Mainland history.
I lived on Camino Cielo during all that and it was one hell of a ride! Crazy times! Later I moved down to North Ontare Rd. and then had the blessing of losing my home in the Jesusita fire.
What about increased heat conductivity of wet snow? Ican imagine that dry snow acts like a down jacket keeping the ice underneath cold and wet snow is like a wet down jacket that doesn't work anymore
Ice and water generally equilibrate at 0C under normal atmospheric conditons from the definition of the freezing point of water. If it loses heat, it freezes, if it gains heat it melts. So it depends on the environment. If energy is input, melting, e.g. if the sun shines on the melt pools, or air temperature is above zero, but if the melted ice water passes over subzero ice, it can freeze, or if there is wind chill.
oh my goodness, ..i feel so much empathy for you MrBoxx, ...i am Alarmed, i can only imagine how YOU feel after a Lifetime of effort trying to get people to pay attention, ...well, Im paying attention MrBoxx.
Absolutely fascinating research. Thank you for carrying out this vital work, I've been following your work for a while as I have followed Alun Hubbard's work too.
Great presentation as ususal, but the music should be just a little less prominent. I like the tone and the mood of the music, but it sometimes overpowers the detailed presentation which I struggled to stay focused on. I have ADHD and the rhythmic beat of the music kept hijacking my attention.
In September 2022, sea ice reached a minimum extent of 4.87 million square kilometers in the Arctic. This is higher than the extent in 2007, which means the Arctic summer sea ice trend is zero for the past 16 years. It was almost as high as 1995. Summer 2023 is one of the coldest in several decades in the Arctic, and May 2023 was the coldest on record there. The Greenland surface mass balance (SMB) for the past 11 months is a massive but very normal 450 billion tonnes of ice accumulated. 5 out of the last 7 years have seen huge accumulations above the average (1981-2010).
Actually, about 10 years ago I was wondering if climate change could lead to rainfall events on the Greenland ice sheet which might lead to much higher melt rates than what climatologists thought was possible. And now 2023, not only is there evidence for such rain events they are even huge in scale. Just unbelievable. Thanks for your research on this topic.
Good questions. Thank you! @joejoe and his ilk will accept 100% of all "bad news" about climate without question, while denying 100% of any "good news" or even "not so bad news" about climate without question. They all seem to be the same people more or less who were also scared into believing that CViD was going to wipe them out, so lined up to get all the shots and masks they could without question.
Wow 😮 another amazing video 😊 thank you so much for taking the time 🙏 your really helping my knowledge base and therefore understanding of the mess we find ourselves in 🌧️🌀
A tipping point will be reached. The only problem is, it's devilishly difficult to predict when that will be. It's too bad that weather data from the 1880's to the 1960's is so unreliable otherwise the climatology community would have a larger data set to work with, instead of the very small data set used in all current modeling. Ice core sampling offers some hope but is still in a learning curve. Hopefully one day, this will be a thoroughly understood science that can be applied to modeling of when the tipping point will arrive.
There is no scientific evidence for the concept of a "tipping point" in earth's climate history. The 1930s was the hottest decade in the U.S. and in areas where temperature data was available. The earth cooled from 1930s to the late 1970s, and every single major newspaper and scientific journals published articles about the "coming ice age". They were using the raw temperature data to come to this conclusion. Also, the medieval warm period was quite warm relative to today...when warm-weather grapes were able to be grown in Britain so successfully that the French put tariffs on red wines. Keep in mind that fear/alarmism is what sells, so that's what is being sold. Modeling is also nothing more than another format to present one's hypothesis. There is nothing inherent to a model that allows it to predict the future, though so many people have been manipulated into believing there is.
@@jimmoses6617 Even Exxon was able to predict the current temperature in the 80s with a model... Also a large part, if not most of the cooling in the 1930 to 1970 was from uncontrolled aerosol emissions. I hope you start learning from credible sources soon
@@letransformateur6477 Oh so you say the cooling was there anyway? With recent "history adjustments" it converts to warming at a rate probably proportional to money flowing in.
THIS MUST BE A VERY RECENT VIDEO AS VERMONT IS STILL UNDER WATER AND IT'S JULY 16, 2023 NOW. HERE IN QUEBEC IT RAINED MORE IN ONE DAY THAN EVER BEFORE AND POWER IS STILL OUT IN SOME AREAS AS THIS WAS JUST LAST WEEK. JULY 14TH 2023!!
THX 4 posting! One question: how dramatic do you think this is? I am not suggesting to act like crazy while streaming video but add a bit more of emotion, which may induce not just "amazing" but "panicking" instead, 'cause this is not the case when one could say "don't get panic": it absolutely IS time to panic.
Were you by chance the dude rocking those sick glasses in a segment from Before the Flood? Havnt seen that film in years, but I recognized you almost instantly. How melancholy it feels now to think about that piece, seeing as the message was missed entirely..
How similar is this to when the Vikings being able to live in Greenland when the C02 was around 300 ppm? and according to Greenland ice core records it was warmer then.
Nice work! I wonder if the rain and rapids are worse on the western or eastern side of Greenland? If I am not mistaken the North Atlantic Drift and Eastern Greenlandic Current circulate off the eastern shore of Greenland which produces a lot of rain. Maybe it is contributing too? I have so many more questions now.
How has the Hunga Ha'apai eruption on 15 Jan 2022 (largest since Krakatoa) being factored into the rainfall data now, living in New Zealand a significant increase in rainfall has occurred since this eruption, also seen in Australia?
The City of Boulder owns its own glaciers technically. Do you get up to the university mountain research station on Niwot ridge re: Arikaree & Arapaho Glaciers? I used to work Patrol at the Boulder Watershed back in the 80s-2000, and wonder how the area is doing. Hiker's photos from Mt. Navaho show Arikaree Glacier as gone...
Are any of these frequencies "popping" cavitation-bubble(ish) structures, and, if so, what's being learned about that energy release contributing , with other self-feeding factors, toward accelerating the rate of climate-crisis changes?
Can you estimate the amount of methane trapped in hydrates that are yet to be released from permafrost and oceanic sediments? Has anyone done a parametric analysis of the timing and effect of the hydrate sublimation and permafrost decay?
Thank you for the academic presentation. Question that comes to mind is what are the effects of this heat in other places? Is their a cooling in other tropical regions? Or other regions that is below temp delta averages? I ask this because I was in Namibia a number of times of the last 10years and about 5years ago to present I experienced freezing weather where half filled buckets were frozenband stayed for over 40hears. We need a better coordinated research with politics expounged from the health check of our world
@@tikaanipippin im tellin ya, i can't make this stuff up fast enough to be shocking anymore i was working on "Giant Flaming Cyclonadoes" Thanks canada and russia, Rain Bombs is done all i got left is TsunamiBergs,.....or maybe Bomb Cyclones,....
@@-LightningRod- What about Holocolostomypants, or Necropaedophilistines vs. para-ano-succubinicacidophilusneopalindromicnucleicacidpolymorphisms? The keyboard is your Ostreatus :)
Thank you for doing this important work to help us understand the processes of global weirding, especially after all that rain turned your glacier into a virtual Slush Puppie! 😱
Professor Box is a good speaker and obviously a much respected scientist, but as a layman , i found this difficult to follow. Would it be possible to have a short simplified overview, emphasising the implications. Just a suggestion😊
I notice forest fires in the northern boreal forest have caused a low elevation soot permeation of the northern hemisphere air mass, leading to a cooler than normal summer this year I guess because of low sunlight penetration. This may continue to act as a negative feedback loop as the northern boreal forest burns. Is this included in the models?
This was clear and alarming. But it left me wondering if anyone is updating the sea level rise modelling as a consequence. Is that information being kept from the general public or can we access updated sea level rise modelling somewhere?
Yes you can see the IPCC reports, they have shortened versions you can skim through. But as he said at the end, this new information is not in many (or any) models so its likely to be worse than current predictions.
Whereas @ 1:04 "Laser-focussed" sounds sharp and precise, @ 2:37 " 2/3rds-of-a-foot" and @ 2:45 "half-a-foot" seem particularly fuzzy, as most of the world understands millimetres as a measure of short depths or lengths. Once you begin using one metric, please stick to it. We have already absorbed that 200mm fell on Greenland and that one foot = 304mm, and we can mentally work out that 200/304 = ~2/3rds of a foot.
Could there be another phenomenon at play here. The latent heat of water between gas and liquid is 6 times the latent heat between solid and liquid (540cal/gram vs 80cal/gram). This means that if water condenses out of the atmosphere on to the ice, it releases enough heat to melt, say, 5 times as much snow or ice (some of the heat will be used for sensible heat, to raise the ice to the melting point). Another phenomenon might come into play here. When the wind reaches the top of the ice sheet at about 3000m and starts down the other side it heats by compression. A body of air flowing down from the peak to the sea would warm up by about 30degreesC. Of course it would likely release some of this heat to the ice, melting even more ice. (a neat description of a foen wind on an ice sheet is found in the novel, Plains of Passage by Jean Auel at about chapter 40 or so. It is a novel but Jean did her homework)
Fantastic presentation! Studied positive feedback loops in meteorology at UCSB 20 years ago and this is really interesting stuff to watch. Stuff that you are confirming in these videos. Thank you!
This is a process unleashed by changing circumstances previously totally unforeseen, right? Peter Wadhams didn’t mention it yet in het ‘A farewell to Ice’ as far as I remember. We also spike, we learn more then ever at ever greater speed, and then all this knowledge, down to the ability to read and write get washed off the earth. Thanks for briefing us anyway, very clear presentation.
@@JasonBoxClimate will stick with Peter Carter who said few people will see 3C and no one will live to see 4C over pre industrial. That comes from his interview with Roger Hallman about 2 years ago the video is on Roger's TH-cam channel.
Jason, can you pleas explain the atmospheric greenhouse effect? So far I never saw an explanation of this effect, that was compatible with basic physics.
look up 2011 Raymond Pierrehumbert's article on Physics Today on planetary climate. I'm just now reading Pierrehumbert's review (with David Archer) of global warming science starting in 1824 with Joseph Fourier figuring out that "dark heat" (infrared radiation) was warming Earth and that "industrial activity" would increase the warming!! So you're just 200 years behind in your science. That 2011 book by Pierrehumbert and Archer includes all the science article along with their commentary.
Thank you.
You are my Pecos Hank of Greenland.
If the forests are burning, the ice is melting.
Digestible material for me as a layman, I wish everyone was listening. Thank you
Sadly MSM are failing to sufficiently report the increasing frequency of catastrophic impact events.
For example, not one mention on the BBC this past week about the catastrophic flooding events in Vermont or Montréal.
I was astonished over the omission, so much so I complained to them about it.
@@MarkHopewell LOL Swiss also have state run media and they did mention 2 rain events, including calling one a 1,000 year flood, with nary a mention of climb at.
@@MarkHopewell Silence is just another form of propaganda
@@a.randomjack6661 Yes, you're right.
Doesn't fit with their pre planned "Record fires because of drought" scam narrative. (there isn't record fires, they've just expanded the area they monitor into the Arctic, and they are more stinky because they are volcanic dike insertion into tarsands and peat initiated.
The only thing you need to fear is those who seek to scare you, and by that control you.
There is nothing unusual about what Jason is talking about.
There is not an IceSheet on the area Jason is talking about anymore.
This Ocean heating and CO2 degassing is driven by 59 and 210 year Earth-moon-sun orbital parameters that cause the equatorial circumference to expand by 10 kilometers while the Earth's polar radius decreases by 1.5km. And back again.
This is now known to be the prime driver of plate tectonics, and as the moons orbit tilts more or less steeply relative to the plane of the solar system, also draws the weather belts Further towards the poles.
This causes peaks in volcanism, particularly the seafloor spreading vulcanisim similar to recently observed occuring in Iceland and under the Greenland and Antarctic Icesheets.
And in the deep Arctic and Southern Oceans.
The atmospheric gas record from Ice Cores has proven worthless, as the volitility is on far shorter timescales than the 5000 to 9000 years that it takes to seal gas into an ice sheet.
Leaf stomata proxies, and speleotherm, and sediment cores have taught us that there has been warm and cold oscillation on around a 230 year cycle for the last few thousand years, we are past the hot peak, we are not as high in greenhouse gases or temperature now as the medieval warm period.
And we now know that subglacial volcanism has melted Greenland and Antarctica Ice sheets back past where they are today, and then the glaciers have advanced again fed by the enhanced evaporation from volcanically heated polar seas, many times in the holocene, the last 20000 years.
Tell Jason to catch up with the science.
Very clear, well explained, and disturbing as hell!
Right!
this is normal, not disturbing. Don’t be scared. It’s just whether.
@@toddnelsen8694 whether or not!
@@toddnelsen8694 Whether is how we climb at something that's always been changing.
@@toddnelsen8694 It scares me you can't spell weather and want to be trusted. I'm not scared for me, but for future humans and the other animals.
I’ve worked and played outdoors for all of my life. I’m 67 . I know for a fact our weather is not the same!
I can never work out how people can claim that nothing has changed, reporting such things as the high tide mark on a pier being the same now as it was when their grandfather was a boy - as if a man in his 70's actually took any notice at all of tide marks when he was a child.
But the number of people who then thread such comments with equally ridiculous claims that temperatures, or rainfall, or hurricane seasons, etc are all the same as they were 50, 60, 70 years ago - when the science and meteorological records proves they are far from the same - it's just astonishing.
I took have worked and spent much of my leisure time outdoors all my life, and even though I live in one of the least affected regions of the world - it is very clear to me that the climate has greatly changed.
Nothing is the same.
Indeed, it puzzles me that scientists claim the atmosphere has only warmed by 1.5 degrees. Comparing temperatures of my childhood home past and present, the summer highs have increased by 12-13 degrees Celsius. Temperatures there would be intolerable for me now, and like the fast disappearing insect life, I have moved further and further north.
The anti-climate change comments have lessened a little in the year since you wrote your comment. But I don't like the way that the remaining closed-minded deniers now label environmental concern as 'woke.' That goes to show how increasingly desperate they are to put everything they want to blame their personal failings on in one big basket.
The most recent videos on climate change are now very troubling, giving us less and less time it seems.
Indeed, the world feels like it's going mad right now, and tensions here in the UK are breaking.
I'm only glad my only child didn't want to bring children into this world. At least he has enjoyed his childhood and youth in his own way. And I can say that I saw Nature in my own country when it was still pretty good. The decline now is just awful. The disappearing insects is having a very severe effect this year, birds vanishing too, and very few amphibians and reptiles to be seen.
I think this 6th extinction is going to happen quite fast, in comparison to the previous 5.
I was in Chicago in the 90’s, one night saw 17 inches of rain, down by the Gulf of Mexico, a foot of rain is also possible. This however is mind bending, the revenge of Gaia and feedback loops are as James Lovelock said, accelerating.good work, by this fellow here, I’m a layman and I get it.
so extreme weather is nothing new?
why would so called scientists NOT use ALL of the available weather data in their dooms day charts? Wait, I think I just answered my own question
@@iamdone7094 Extreme weather, no. Getting hit repeatly by extreme weather every other week, yes.
Las Vegas had 4 inches of rain fall one day. They had to get a helicopter to rescue the guys on a firetruck that was being washed away.
10 in Vermont recently we are in trouble yet our gov won't admit it.
@@bitkrusher5948 Such rainfall amounts have happened forever. Please understand this and calm down.
@@bitkrusher5948 Are you being sarcastic? John Kerry is trying to scare everyone into believing this hysteria.
jimmoses6617 if you're interested in data on the subject you can check out Climate Central Rising Hourly Rainfall Intensity.
bitkrusher, our government has done more than admit it. It rejoined the Paris Climate Accord and devoted more money and resources than ever before in the huge infrastructure bill that passed last year.
Nice presentation! And wow, the detail is incredible.
Congratulations on passing the hazardous tent test. Assuming that was your tent in +100km/hr winds. I just couldn't help but think you must have been wondering at the time if the tent was going to fly off up the glacier.
The trickery about carbon capture is It'll take as much or more energy than we took from the hydrocarbon in the first place to fix it back in solids. Not to mention the waste heat we would create to add to the mix of an already warmer planet.
Pretty smooth trickery since it was just promoted on 60 minutes as the techno-Fix that will save the planet. haha. Nothing to see here folks.
@@voidisyinyangvoidisyinyang885 they have to say something other than our society is going to collapse and the population is going to dramatically drop in the next few years.
Incredibly well explained, and unfortunately rather terrifying in its implications. You've earned a subscriber.
Only watchable by older viewers. Please check your audio for high pitched noise. Good thing CC exists.
The model presented at 5:14 triggers a memory of Colorado Front Range weather called "terrain-anchored convective events." Could that be analogous to what's happening in Greenland? Do the mountains inland from US West Coast create a similar pattern?
When thinking about our atmosphere and patterns of vertical and horizontal circulation I think it important to realize how using vertical exaggeration in visual representations can give us a distorted mental image and basic misunderstanding of the process. The first feature of the troposphere that we should be aware of is it's incredible shallowness.
Rapids, and standing waves. Like the Chinook 70mph stiff breezes that frequent Boulder, and those magnificent lee-clouds.
Thank you Mr. Box for this very clear warning.
I hope the right people see/hear about it!
The part that should worry them, (us too) is the data that is NOT included in your ice sheet models.
Depending on just what the effects of that data are on the ice sheets, our entire calculation of how fast the ice sheets will melt could be seriously wrong.
The difference between millimeters of sea level rise per year, and centimeters of sea level rise per year, may not sound like a big difference, but it compounds year over year.
I really hope I'm wrong about the melting speeding up, but that's the conclusion I come to from the type of data not in the models currently being used.
This is important, because what we don't know is coming, we can't plan for and that will hit us like a sledgehammer in coming decades.
No, I think you are spot-on. The models predicting ice sheet melt are more like setting a timer next to an ice cube on a plate, discounting a myriad of effects that hasten the process taking place in nature, most of which will probably take us by surprise.
Another factor that I believe is not properly accounted for regarding Greenland is the topography of the bedrock. Greenland is like a bowl with a huge ring of mountains and a central area below current sea level. A small rise in sea level is all that is required to lead to destabilization of the center of the ice sheet.
@@tedg1278 Ah yes. That seems to make sense. But it may be compensated (although I do not know at what speed this process takes place) by the bedrock rising, as the pressure of the ice on top of it is reduced due to melt.
You are in no way wrong. Accelerating icesheet melt has undisclosed effects.
Dream on... Honestly it's pathetic what little is being done..
I was a weather forecaster at Thule 2007-2014. Worked a lot with the NASA Ice recon guys and other science researchers through those years. Your reports have always intrigued me and this latest fits the bill. Thank you! I miss working and living at Thule.
I am astounded by your delivery Prof. I would be on the ceiling screaming. I may have to watch this many times to get the full massage/lesson. Thank you for Being.
You're the man. This is incredible.
i thought i was old enough to die long before the bad stuff.......i was wrong......this is all coming really fast.....we almost out of time folks.
I frequently comment elsewhere that any human that lives to their full life expectancy and are currently 60 years old, they will all not just witness these catastrophic changes elsewhere but also experience them directly.
@@MarkHopewell Simply no.
Interesting, and very alarming. Thanks for continuing to share your research.
Alarming...yes. Climate Change Alarmism at its finest.
Greenland has been cooling since 2012. How inconvenient!
Thanks…. Good job Jason…. Your careful, deliberate, well paced explaination makes for an easy to understand, and interpret what is really at hand…. Hang on to your butt, the time is now, or never…
I grew up near Bailey Colorado and I have seen change here in our climate. This year I will be 60. I remember 40 years ago scientist telling us what was going to happen to our planet if we didn't change our ways. We are definitely experimenting on our own existence.
Excellent video.
I guess this effect is self-reinforcing. It is extremely worrying that this is not incorporated into current climate models.
I saw the mass balance loss of the Greenland Ice cap [the newly exposed rock] from Etah [Smith Sound] down to Upernavik in 2008 and it was staggering. The ice cap looked black. Same with northern Ellesmere Island ice caps where I worked.
"Greenland ice sheet mass balance from 1840 through next week." (Mankoff et al., 2021). If you examine Fig.2 on page 5, you will see there would be no correlation with the exponential increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide (280ppm to 420ppm) and the change in the annual Mass Balance Sum shown in the paper. Indeed there have been periods of increasing mass of the Greenland ice cap in the 1940's, 70's, 80's and 90's. (Remember CO2 was rising all the time.)
The Greenland ice sheet is thought to contribute 0.7mm/yr to sea-level rise, so 54mm by 2100 (just over 2 inches). That sounds small because it is small. Also an accounting error.
More recently Greenland Total Ice Mass Balance rate of loss reached its maximum in 2012 but the trend rate of loss has been diminishing ever since. That's while we've added 500 million tonnes of CO2 to the atmosphere (14% of total human emissions). The average annual loss is 0.005% of the total mass (around 3 million gigatonnes). That's neglible. Come back in 20,000 years.
The Variance (or Standatd Deviation) is often a more important diagnostic than the Mean.
Swiss Cheesification of ice. Faster than expected.
Quite the strong message about stopping fossil fuels, and maybe using the only carbon capture technique we have today that works?
I've proposed that students be taught renewables as well as uses of hemp & bamboo at a Swiss professional school. It initially was accepted in early 2018 before it was blocked by the fossil fuel lobby. Surprisingly no climate group supported this idea. Greta and her group rejected it at SMILE in Lausanne.
But 2 weeks ago one member of FFF Sweden expressed support, and so I wrote another letter. The school hasn't answereed but the local OECD is interested. Maybe someone might give a call to EPAC Bulle and express support?
why would Greta reject it - and what is Greta's "group"?
Thank you very much for informing us very impressive heavy rain effect in Iceland!
Greenland
Excellent work and very informative video.
Ironically this video hits as VT is being hit with a second river of rain predicted to drop 14 more inches just days after the rain fall mentioned in this video. I am watching it from NH wondering how bad the flooding will be here today.
The Vermont flooding is yet another wake-up call in the ever increasing number of wake-up calls stretching across the nation. And yet those with the ability to take action are still asleep. Good luck with this next round of flooding. Some parts of the U.S….and the planet….might be safer from extreme weather but nobody is completely immune.
I am not in the US , but just saw a video on my weather channel forcast that said an extremely fast rising flash flood in Pennsylvania has washed cars off a road, with at least 3 dead already. Terribly sad. Stay safe, and in place if you can.
Thank you Jason and please keep sharing these video's, they really help me and others I'm sure when trying to explain to friends the magnitude of our climate problems.
Thanks so much for patiently explaining this part of the complex situation we're in. I'm so glad you're doing this, as bad as data reveals are. Cheers!
I got stuck at work in Solvang California when all possible highways back home to Goleta California were flooded by 20+ inches of rain in a 36 hour period in February 2006 (maybe 2005 or even 2007)... when weather stations in Santa Ynez, & Santa Barbara recorded all time 24/48 hour historic precipitation records for the continental US.
I worked in a newer building with a flat roof that sounded and looked like it was ready to collapse. I remember hitting refresh on Cal-Trans highway information page many times that day.
I saw some photos of the ridiculously huge boulder that fell, blocking the pass between Santa Barbara & Santa Ynez, very close to the station that gave the highest precipitation readings in US Mainland history.
I lived on Camino Cielo during all that and it was one hell of a ride! Crazy times! Later I moved down to North Ontare Rd. and then had the blessing of losing my home in the Jesusita fire.
What about increased heat conductivity of wet snow? Ican imagine that dry snow acts like a down jacket keeping the ice underneath cold and wet snow is like a wet down jacket that doesn't work anymore
Ice and water generally equilibrate at 0C under normal atmospheric conditons from the definition of the freezing point of water. If it loses heat, it freezes, if it gains heat it melts. So it depends on the environment. If energy is input, melting, e.g. if the sun shines on the melt pools, or air temperature is above zero, but if the melted ice water passes over subzero ice, it can freeze, or if there is wind chill.
Time to revise estimates for how fast Greenland will melt. No longer centuries.
oh my goodness, ..i feel so much empathy for you MrBoxx, ...i am Alarmed, i can only imagine how YOU feel after a Lifetime of effort trying to get people to pay attention, ...well, Im paying attention MrBoxx.
Looks like slumping will be a bigger issue than surging glaciers. Live now. Thanks for the update
Absolutely fascinating research.
Thank you for carrying out this vital work, I've been following your work for a while as I have followed Alun Hubbard's work too.
Thank you. You are correct and your work is finally being rewarded.
Thank you.
Thanks for the video. Very informative!
Jason Box knows what's up.
Thank you Dr. Box for all you do!
beautiful work. WE thank you
Great content, thanks. Immediately subscribed.
Great to the point , digestible information
Great presentation as ususal, but the music should be just a little less prominent. I like the tone and the mood of the music, but it sometimes overpowers the detailed presentation which I struggled to stay focused on. I have ADHD and the rhythmic beat of the music kept hijacking my attention.
In September 2022, sea ice reached a minimum extent of 4.87 million square kilometers in the Arctic. This is higher than the extent in 2007, which means the Arctic summer sea ice trend is zero for the past 16 years. It was almost as high as 1995. Summer 2023 is one of the coldest in several decades in the Arctic, and May 2023 was the coldest on record there. The Greenland surface mass balance (SMB) for the past 11 months is a massive but very normal 450 billion tonnes of ice accumulated. 5 out of the last 7 years have seen huge accumulations above the average (1981-2010).
Thank you--hope this information reaches a whole SPL of people.
Actually, about 10 years ago I was wondering if climate change could lead to rainfall events on the Greenland ice sheet which might lead to much higher melt rates than what climatologists thought was possible.
And now 2023, not only is there evidence for such rain events they are even huge in scale. Just unbelievable.
Thanks for your research on this topic.
crap science
On your greenhouse gases graph what rises first c02 or temp? Also thoughts on increase on artic ice rebound over past decade?
liar
Good questions. Thank you! @joejoe and his ilk will accept 100% of all "bad news" about climate without question, while denying 100% of any "good news" or even "not so bad news" about climate without question. They all seem to be the same people more or less who were also scared into believing that CViD was going to wipe them out, so lined up to get all the shots and masks they could without question.
Thank you for your work.
Hi, please do you have references for the rounding of ice crystal leading to darker snow?
Many thanks
Ade
That is one good video. I have shared it on several climate groups.
Excellent report, thank you.
Wow 😮 another amazing video 😊 thank you so much for taking the time 🙏 your really helping my knowledge base and therefore understanding of the mess we find ourselves in 🌧️🌀
A tipping point will be reached. The only problem is, it's devilishly difficult to predict when that will be. It's too bad that weather data from the 1880's to the 1960's is so unreliable otherwise the climatology community would have a larger data set to work with, instead of the very small data set used in all current modeling. Ice core sampling offers some hope but is still in a learning curve. Hopefully one day, this will be a thoroughly understood science that can be applied to modeling of when the tipping point will arrive.
There is no scientific evidence for the concept of a "tipping point" in earth's climate history. The 1930s was the hottest decade in the U.S. and in areas where temperature data was available. The earth cooled from 1930s to the late 1970s, and every single major newspaper and scientific journals published articles about the "coming ice age". They were using the raw temperature data to come to this conclusion. Also, the medieval warm period was quite warm relative to today...when warm-weather grapes were able to be grown in Britain so successfully that the French put tariffs on red wines. Keep in mind that fear/alarmism is what sells, so that's what is being sold. Modeling is also nothing more than another format to present one's hypothesis. There is nothing inherent to a model that allows it to predict the future, though so many people have been manipulated into believing there is.
@@jimmoses6617 Even Exxon was able to predict the current temperature in the 80s with a model... Also a large part, if not most of the cooling in the 1930 to 1970 was from uncontrolled aerosol emissions. I hope you start learning from credible sources soon
@@letransformateur6477 Oh so you say the cooling was there anyway? With recent "history adjustments" it converts to warming at a rate probably proportional to money flowing in.
Great graphics, excellent presentation. Also scary
Thank you: that was terrifying. Do you have more videos/links about the impact of Arctic warming on the Jet stream?
THIS MUST BE A VERY RECENT VIDEO AS VERMONT IS STILL UNDER WATER AND IT'S JULY 16, 2023 NOW. HERE IN QUEBEC IT RAINED MORE IN ONE DAY THAN EVER BEFORE AND POWER IS STILL OUT IN SOME AREAS AS THIS WAS JUST LAST WEEK. JULY 14TH 2023!!
THX 4 posting! One question: how dramatic do you think this is? I am not suggesting to act like crazy while streaming video but add a bit more of emotion, which may induce not just "amazing" but "panicking" instead, 'cause this is not the case when one could say "don't get panic": it absolutely IS time to panic.
Thanks for this video & for the increase of consistent monitors & rain maping.
very well spoken and presented. thanks
Were you by chance the dude rocking those sick glasses in a segment from Before the Flood? Havnt seen that film in years, but I recognized you almost instantly. How melancholy it feels now to think about that piece, seeing as the message was missed entirely..
How similar is this to when the Vikings being able to live in Greenland when the C02 was around 300 ppm? and according to Greenland ice core records it was warmer then.
why is the ice sheet still there. thought it was supposed to be gone.
liar
Nice work! I wonder if the rain and rapids are worse on the western or eastern side of Greenland? If I am not mistaken the North Atlantic Drift and Eastern Greenlandic Current circulate off the eastern shore of Greenland which produces a lot of rain. Maybe it is contributing too? I have so many more questions now.
How has the Hunga Ha'apai eruption on 15 Jan 2022 (largest since Krakatoa) being factored into the rainfall data now, living in New Zealand a significant increase in rainfall has occurred since this eruption, also seen in Australia?
The City of Boulder owns its own glaciers technically. Do you get up to the university mountain research station on Niwot ridge re: Arikaree & Arapaho Glaciers? I used to work Patrol at the Boulder Watershed back in the 80s-2000, and wonder how the area is doing. Hiker's photos from Mt. Navaho show Arikaree Glacier as gone...
all kinds of things we didn't know abt that's not in the models..
so when do we leave for mars?? im thinking we won't destroy it, not sure tho...
Are any of these frequencies "popping" cavitation-bubble(ish) structures, and,
if so,
what's being learned about that energy release contributing , with other self-feeding factors, toward accelerating the rate of climate-crisis changes?
Can you estimate the amount of methane trapped in hydrates that are yet to be released from permafrost and oceanic sediments? Has anyone done a parametric analysis of the timing and effect of the hydrate sublimation and permafrost decay?
Those cases of extreme flores are similar tô a tropical eventos of squash lines
Thank you for the academic presentation. Question that comes to mind is what are the effects of this heat in other places? Is their a cooling in other tropical regions? Or other regions that is below temp delta averages? I ask this because I was in Namibia a number of times of the last 10years and about 5years ago to present I experienced freezing weather where half filled buckets were frozenband stayed for over 40hears. We need a better coordinated research with politics expounged from the health check of our world
Please explain the flash freezing of megafauna in Siberia 12,000 years ago.
How did that happen?
This video should be shown,world wide, as a Public Information Film ,no information platform exempt.
Could you use a different term besides gravity wave....? Bouyancy wave maybe or rarefaction, trough and peak of a transverse wind current🎉
Thanks Jason, when the time comes will the greenland ice sheets collapse like Jenga ?
It won’t happen so abruptly.
you mean like "TsunamiBergs" toppling into the Ocean?
@@-LightningRod- Like it did back in 1912, when non-anthropogenic global warming melted the Arctic Ice, and sank the Titanic?
@@tikaanipippin im tellin ya, i can't make this stuff up fast enough to be shocking anymore i was working on "Giant Flaming Cyclonadoes" Thanks canada and russia, Rain Bombs is done all i got left is TsunamiBergs,.....or maybe Bomb Cyclones,....
@@-LightningRod- What about Holocolostomypants, or Necropaedophilistines vs. para-ano-succubinicacidophilusneopalindromicnucleicacidpolymorphisms? The keyboard is your Ostreatus :)
If this is the end of man hope i can watch it on youtube
Excellent video by the way.
How much of this has to do with hot tub temp waters around Florida?
Thank you for doing this important work to help us understand the processes of global weirding, especially after all that rain turned your glacier into a virtual Slush Puppie! 😱
thank you
Awesome video, really informative
Professor Box is a good speaker and obviously a much respected scientist, but as a layman , i found this difficult to follow. Would it be possible to have a short simplified overview, emphasising the implications. Just a suggestion😊
I notice forest fires in the northern boreal forest have caused a low elevation soot permeation of the northern hemisphere air mass, leading to a cooler than normal summer this year I guess because of low sunlight penetration. This may continue to act as a negative feedback loop as the northern boreal forest burns. Is this included in the models?
This was clear and alarming. But it left me wondering if anyone is updating the sea level rise modelling as a consequence. Is that information being kept from the general public or can we access updated sea level rise modelling somewhere?
Yes you can see the IPCC reports, they have shortened versions you can skim through. But as he said at the end, this new information is not in many (or any) models so its likely to be worse than current predictions.
@@letransformateur6477 thanks so much for that. I'll find the IPCC reports and give them a read.
Whereas @ 1:04 "Laser-focussed" sounds sharp and precise, @ 2:37 " 2/3rds-of-a-foot" and @ 2:45 "half-a-foot" seem particularly fuzzy, as most of the world understands millimetres as a measure of short depths or lengths. Once you begin using one metric, please stick to it. We have already absorbed that 200mm fell on Greenland and that one foot = 304mm, and we can mentally work out that 200/304 = ~2/3rds of a foot.
thank you well done .. great explanation of data collection and interpretation 🥃
Could there be another phenomenon at play here. The latent heat of water between gas and liquid is 6 times the latent heat between solid and liquid (540cal/gram vs 80cal/gram). This means that if water condenses out of the atmosphere on to the ice, it releases enough heat to melt, say, 5 times as much snow or ice (some of the heat will be used for sensible heat, to raise the ice to the melting point). Another phenomenon might come into play here. When the wind reaches the top of the ice sheet at about 3000m and starts down the other side it heats by compression. A body of air flowing down from the peak to the sea would warm up by about 30degreesC. Of course it would likely release some of this heat to the ice, melting even more ice. (a neat description of a foen wind on an ice sheet is found in the novel, Plains of Passage by Jean Auel at about chapter 40 or so. It is a novel but Jean did her homework)
Are you saying that my 100 watt freezer is no match for my 3kw kettle?
Is there a lot of lenticular clouds ? The loop you describe is kind of frightening.
How do I upvote a video twice?
use a different TH-cam account
Thank you....
El Nino and Pole shift (which no one is talking about). Me snow there too.
Fantastic presentation! Studied positive feedback loops in meteorology at UCSB 20 years ago and this is really interesting stuff to watch. Stuff that you are confirming in these videos. Thank you!
This is a process unleashed by changing circumstances previously totally unforeseen, right?
Peter Wadhams didn’t mention it yet in het ‘A farewell to Ice’ as far as I remember.
We also spike, we learn more then ever at ever greater speed, and then all this knowledge, down to the ability to read and write get washed off the earth.
Thanks for briefing us anyway, very clear presentation.
We are Toast!
Mmmm toast
Nomnom
The poor are toast, and some of the rich who end up in the wrong place and time
@@JasonBoxClimate will stick with Peter Carter who said few people will see 3C and no one will live to see 4C over pre industrial.
That comes from his interview with Roger Hallman about 2 years ago the video is on Roger's TH-cam channel.
@@JasonBoxClimate Hard to live in a bunker with other psychopaths for 100,000-200,000 years.
I would like a definition of "gravity wave" since that term is new to me in this context and can't be confused with that in cosmology.
Dr. Jason Box is the gold standard among climate scientists!
Jason, can you pleas explain the atmospheric greenhouse effect? So far I never saw an explanation of this effect, that was compatible with basic physics.
look up 2011 Raymond Pierrehumbert's article on Physics Today on planetary climate. I'm just now reading Pierrehumbert's review (with David Archer) of global warming science starting in 1824 with Joseph Fourier figuring out that "dark heat" (infrared radiation) was warming Earth and that "industrial activity" would increase the warming!! So you're just 200 years behind in your science. That 2011 book by Pierrehumbert and Archer includes all the science article along with their commentary.
blödmann
Excellent 👍
What do you think happened 11,750ish years ago, the great cataclysm..