ULTA has fantastic management imo, They dont pay out a dividend but buy back stock. At these levels this is like a gold mine if they succeed in their Mexico expansion.
I valued it before the last earnings release and did a video where I valued it a bit lower, but I am wondering if I was too conservative with this one. I said I was going to try to pick it up at $350 then. They did buy back more stock according to the recent earnings release. I probably should revisit it again. Glad Jimmy is back!
I rarely comment, and in the last video I recommended this company! And HERE WE GO 😂 maybe I should start leaving comments more often. Great stuff, I have the stock at 375 so that’s cool. From across the globe(Saudi), thanks Jimmy for the awesome educational videos!
When you say you are waiting for the company to arrive to the margin of safety, what do you mean by that? I understand you have set it at 14% but what does that mean? What value or price are you looking for based on a 14% margin of safety? Thank you for your analysis it is extremely helpful.
lol, fair point. I was thinking more about the fact that 95% of sales were from people who are members. That just struck me as fairly high. But your correct, that it doesn’t imply loyalty
Agreed. At Amazon, Costco, and Sam's customers pay a subscription fee upfront. Amazon: for "free" shipping. Costco: for the privilege of buying huge quanties of its goods. Costco gives customers free samples of food to entice then to buy. Without the discounts and CapEx there mught be no growth. ULTA deserves its valuation multiple.
As someone who shops at Ulta. You are more inclined to buy from them vs say Sephora etc since you get more points and more convenient locations than having to go to the mall (ie Sephora)
Hi sir , your videos are amazing but I think you should improve your Thumbnail designing it will give you more ctr = more views I can help you in Thumbnail designing 🙂
Hi Jimmy 👋 when you get a chance could you please take a look at $FMC leader in farming supplies commodities impacted in 2023 for weather and covid overstocks. It seems posed to rebound.
jimmy?? i have questions? there is a knowledge gap happening for me and if i am not understanding it than i think many are not understanding it. It's a perception issue, i think. you have a green card here with your numbers on it and because you do the calculations your aware of how you get to these numbers. but if i pull up the calculator i cannot get the calculator to read 14% no matter how i enter these numbers. do you have a video on this already that i am unaware of? its not that i think your wrong, im sure its 14% i just can't figure out how to get to 14% myself. or i will wait till the end of this video where you will talk about your video (8 steps to analyzing stocks).
Same-store-sales growth is 1%. Inflation is over 3%. Doesn't seem like good organic gowth. 95% of sales are from returning customers? That means les than 5% of sales from new customers, therefore no growth despite new stores. Additionally, the members all receive discounts. Like everyone shopping at Wal-mart getsan additional discount of its already low prices. 💁
@@LearntoInvest But arent Same-store-sales growth of 1.6% a quarterly figure whereas the inflation OP mentioned is an annual figure? how is that comparable
Mind you. Look at dollar stores, five below, ASO today. Look at what their same store sales were for recent quarter. There's a lot of weakness out there.
Guys very simple girls wil never stop wearing makeup simple and done. Gonna grow reguardless and on top of that imagine the world wil live in when girls stop wearing make up. NEVER GONNA HAPPEN. I have over 5 figure in this. Easy money stock rightnow my opion
Jimmy, glad you are back at videos again. This is a giant company with great potential. Been dollar-cost-averaging since 460.
Sounds like a solid move, I’m going to start buying in a few days 😀👍
And it’s nice to be making videos again. 😀
Just filled my position in ULTA the other day. Great insight. Glad to see you back!
What price target?
ULTA has fantastic management imo, They dont pay out a dividend but buy back stock. At these levels this is like a gold mine if they succeed in their Mexico expansion.
They have a new Management. Not possible to value them
Glad to see you back on line again. Appreciate you.
I valued it before the last earnings release and did a video where I valued it a bit lower, but I am wondering if I was too conservative with this one. I said I was going to try to pick it up at $350 then. They did buy back more stock according to the recent earnings release. I probably should revisit it again.
Glad Jimmy is back!
Just bought this recently
Great video Jimmy! I like the nuance to the analysis. Good to see you back!
I rarely comment, and in the last video I recommended this company! And HERE WE GO 😂 maybe I should start leaving comments more often. Great stuff, I have the stock at 375 so that’s cool.
From across the globe(Saudi), thanks Jimmy for the awesome educational videos!
You double count earnings by including buybacks. It's like adding back divideds into earnings.
Good point
Thanks Jimmy your great. I would like to see breakdown on NICE and VICI
Jimmy am glad to see you.
Great analysis as usual. Another thing that can be added is competition with ELF beauty. Thanks!
They partner with, not compete with companies like E.L.F.
Thanks Jimmy. I wonder if you considered online sales for this company
Good video!! What is your opinion on EL?
Another great video Jimmy. Your ethical integrity is admirable. Maybe I missed it, but what discount rate or WACC did you use for your DCF?
9% required return
hi Jimmy, may I know what is the website you are using?
Looking forward to this one! Thanks Jimmy!! 💇♀️💇 🙌
I’m excited about this one, let me know your thoughts 😀👍
When you say you are waiting for the company to arrive to the margin of safety, what do you mean by that? I understand you have set it at 14% but what does that mean? What value or price are you looking for based on a 14% margin of safety? Thank you for your analysis it is extremely helpful.
A free membership that gives you perks doesn't strike me as the definition of loyalty, but rather that people aren't saying no to free stuff.
lol, fair point. I was thinking more about the fact that 95% of sales were from people who are members. That just struck me as fairly high. But your correct, that it doesn’t imply loyalty
Agreed. At Amazon, Costco, and Sam's customers pay a subscription fee upfront. Amazon: for "free" shipping. Costco: for the privilege of buying huge quanties of its goods. Costco gives customers free samples of food to entice then to buy.
Without the discounts and CapEx there mught be no growth. ULTA deserves its valuation multiple.
They just make first time buyers flour forms and become a member before the sale, which makes every sale be a member’s sale.
As someone who shops at Ulta. You are more inclined to buy from them vs say Sephora etc since you get more points and more convenient locations than having to go to the mall (ie Sephora)
I'd be checking management guidance for CapEx: will they keep increasing it?
Gonna load the boat today, currently at 328.5
I bet it’s treating u well now haha
@@nathanabebe7110 i didnt know i called the bottom!!!!
But the most important question: what is the goal?
Great video as always Jimmy, I own Ulta since last year and I have an average price of 405. I'm happy to know you are also a shareholder
Hope you been buying more since than and averaging cost down!!
ULTA is down to $350 now, wonder if its still a good buy or now seeing some issues
Morningstar values ULTA at $410.
If I was to buy the whole business, how long would it take for me to get my money back?
Owned $ULTA for the last two plus years and it's one of my larger positions. Theft is still an issue.
How much are you up
Loved the analysis!
Thank you Jimmy!
it is a buy
Are you a buy
Hi sir , your videos are amazing but I think you should improve your Thumbnail designing it will give you more ctr = more views
I can help you in Thumbnail designing 🙂
NYCB as promised?
Please GOOGL and TSLA
Awesome video
Thank you!!!
Hi Jimmy 👋 when you get a chance could you please take a look at $FMC leader in farming supplies commodities impacted in 2023 for weather and covid overstocks. It seems posed to rebound.
Instead of waiting for 1% more MOS why wouldn’t you just sell a put at that price so you get paid for buying it where you want?
maybe he doesn't want to buy 100 shares of it.
hi buffett
Jimmy!!!
Retail=widow maker
Anybody have an opinion on Starbucks
Buy nike rightnow better than star bucks.
Are you filming in 1990?
jimmy?? i have questions? there is a knowledge gap happening for me and if i am not understanding it than i think many are not understanding it. It's a perception issue, i think. you have a green card here with your numbers on it and because you do the calculations your aware of how you get to these numbers. but if i pull up the calculator i cannot get the calculator to read 14% no matter how i enter these numbers. do you have a video on this already that i am unaware of? its not that i think your wrong, im sure its 14% i just can't figure out how to get to 14% myself. or i will wait till the end of this video where you will talk about your video (8 steps to analyzing stocks).
14% of what?
382.5 (current price) divided by 445 (fair value) is 85.9. So 85.9% of fair value. So 100% minus 85.9% you get 14.1% MOS
@@garytruman1988 thanks, I have watched a hundred videos and have not had that explained so clearly 😃😃
you've been harping about intel forever, now is finally the time to get in.
do a deep dive with $SIRI and $DV. these two stocks are so oversold and interesting valuation now.
Same-store-sales growth is 1%. Inflation is over 3%.
Doesn't seem like good organic gowth.
95% of sales are from returning customers? That means les than 5% of sales from new customers, therefore no growth despite new stores. Additionally, the members all receive discounts. Like everyone shopping at Wal-mart getsan additional discount of its already low prices. 💁
Those are all great points, but even with all of that in mind, they still put up double digit net income margins and revenue growth was nearly 10% YoY
@@LearntoInvest But arent Same-store-sales growth of 1.6% a quarterly figure whereas the inflation OP mentioned is an annual figure? how is that comparable
Mind you. Look at dollar stores, five below, ASO today.
Look at what their same store sales were for recent quarter. There's a lot of weakness out there.
95% of sales from members, and membership has been growing.
Guys very simple girls wil never stop wearing makeup simple and done. Gonna grow reguardless and on top of that imagine the world wil live in when girls stop wearing make up. NEVER GONNA HAPPEN. I have over 5 figure in this. Easy money stock rightnow my opion