The fact that Lucid motors is merging with some company and we've had no news besides the CCIV rumors, that's probably good. IMO if they weren't merging with CCIV we'd have rumors of another spac merging with an EV company.
Long term...maybe 2-5 years. But in this market...momentum is taking things to the moon within weeks so who knows what will happen. SO MUCH needs to go right for the company...stay tuned for more updates. Btw, really appreciate the comment NYC vegan! I hope you got some value from the video :)
Hey Brother great analysis I love what you did there I subscribe just because this analysis and because I'm very bullish on Lucid Motors hopefully the merger happens
I know this one is crazy, but if we assign the same valuation as TSLA to Lucid Motors, TSLA is valued at $1.6 million per Vehicle produced. Plant capacity of Lucid’s existing plant is 400,000 vehicles, which gives Lucid a total valuation of $640 billion. With only 207 millions shares outstanding, that’s a $3000 per share price. That’s just nuts!
Soooo many ways to look at this deal I agree. Really appreciate the perspective Yes WeCan! It will be interesting to see how it all plays out. Thanks for the comment 🤙🏼
Not that I would mind a 300x invest... It's highly unlikely Lucid will be able to produce let alone sell anywhere near 400k Air/Gravity models per year in the next few years. As a reference Tesla only sold 55k ~S/X models in 2020. (Granted I imagine they could nearly double that this year with the refreshed S/X vehicles) The Model 3/Y have significantly lowered the market size for vehicles (especially EVS) that are $80k+. Until Lucid at least announces a vehicle starting in the ~$40k price range and provides more information about their energy business plans, you cannot begin to even compare the financials of the two companies. That being said, I do believe the Air and Gravity will be amazing vehicles and I am excited for the company's future.
@@mikereliford55 agree on this perspective Mike. To be clear >50% of my portfolio is in TSLA. I’ve held since Oct of 2015...my conviction in Tesla’s success is about a million times more (conservatively 😆) than Lucid. TAM for lucid luxury products is much much smaller than Tesla. Just having fun on this video, trying to offer a different perspective to start a conversation. Really appreciate the comment and viewpoint Mike...dope name also haha
Would really like to see a review of ACTC / PROTERRA (also known as the Tesla of commercial vehicles). They're vertically integrated, have production, and are nicely situated as a long term buy. The warrants are 40% discount to IV 🤪 I own Tesla too as my heaviest investment so I'm good with consumer applications. I'm off to commercial + going down the supply chain to mining, recycling and other shovel plays.
Thanks as always Liarzdice! I did look into Proterra and I agree with you, very promising commercial application. Appreciate the comment! 🤘🏻next vid will be about alternative brokers to Robinhood. I think a lot of people are trying to get off the platform so I want to offer some insight. Cheers 🍻
Very interesting. They won't reach NIO levels for at least a year and that's with lots of good announcements and factory expansions ahead of schedule. NIO has government backing and protection from foreign brands but Lucid won't. Lucid has potential in the energy sector as well but that won't be happening for a few years at least. A $200 high this year is possible though if things go well. I feel like there is lots of people ready to hold the majority of their position long term.
They will release there sedan before Nio. Nio is set for the first quarter of 2022. Nio does not own a factory of their own. Lucid finished their factory in December. In the new commercial it show how you can use your car to supply energy to your home.
It's highly unlikely Lucid will be able to produce let alone sell anywhere near 400k Air/Gravity models per year in the next few years. As a reference Tesla only sold 55k ~S/X models in 2020. (Granted I imagine they could nearly double that this year with the refreshed S/X vehicles) The Model 3/Y have significantly lowered the market size for vehicles (especially EVS) that are $80k+. Until Lucid at least announces a vehicle starting in the ~$40k price range and provides more information about their energy business plans, you cannot begin to even compare the financials of the two companies. That being said, I do believe the Air and Gravity will be amazing vehicles and I am excited for the company's future.
I’m long CCIV. And holding a $20c 2/19 But can you explain this to me. We are holding anticipating a deal. A deal that could give Lucid an enterprise value of $15B (that $15 billion is from $10 CCIV) Let’s say they got that enterprise value with the deal. At 335/share the valuation would be like 500B Maybe I’m not following your math vs other channels I’ve watched recently. $300/share for CCIV does seem pretty lofty though
>$300 per share is EXTREMELY speculative, I mention it a few times in the vid and in the pinned comment. The video was more/less a “what if” analysis using other manufacturers as a rough proxy. By no means do I think this company will hit over $300 per share in the near term, more of a long term estimate. Once the company is public their financial data will also be public...so then I can make a lot more accurate share price estimates...for now we’re stuck with lofty goals :) anyway, I hope you got some entertainment from the video if anything. I really appreciate the thoughtful comment William! 🤙🏼...Also important to note, Enterprise value= mkt value of debt + mkt value of equity. Market capitalization is simply the value of a company’s equity. Two completely different metrics. Sounds like you may be conflating the two, but I could have read it wrong :)
@@MikeKelleyCo thanks for the response! I was using the enterprise value to extrapolate market caps after merging. But I doubled checked my math with ipoB and the numbers I got were a little off (current market cap is 14.4B and I got 12.7B.) So I guess I need to read up a little more to derive these prices better. Not a big deal 🤝 I look forward to your updated video! But until then I’ll buckle in and wait for more information:)
@@AllRoadsLeadToYah absolutely, really appreciate the comment! I love chatting finance...and future price action speculation is always the most fun :) more updates to come 🤙🏼
Yea, as I mentioned there are a ton of different angles to look at this and try and value the company. You bring up a great point Yes WeCan. Mkt Cap or Enterprise Value vs vehicles delivered is another great approach. I will dig into a more in depth valuation once I have financial data. I’d like to do a DCF or look at EV/Sales multiples vs others in the industry. Appreciate the thoughtful comment 🤙🏼
You’re right Michal. That was a little oversight on my part but I still think Tesla and Lucid are not good comparables for market cap purposes. Different TAM they are targeting...luxury vs mass market. Appreciate the comment 🤘🏻
@@MikeKelleyCo Hi! Look at what price Tesla is selling most of their vehicles. More expensive make more money for a company as you pay for extras. Lucid is planning to have something in high 30 K down the road but their primary market is luxury. Battery technology is the key factor.
Can you really see it going that high? Being that their vehicles are so expensive? Can we really picture many Lucid cars on the road in the future being that it is out of most people's price range? No sarcasm this is an honest question
Great questions Kiam! Only the future knows what will happen. I mention many times throughout the video and in the pinned comment that this is a VERY speculative valuation. But based on how the market is pricing some of these deals...who knows what could happen 🤔 really appreciate the thoughtful comment!!
I agree, at this point they are a boutique EV Co. Great timing to come to market for sure but the only comparison to TSLA would be to the Model S and it’s sales potential. Lucid is copying them in many ways and really just picking up crumbs. Not that anyone cares but I have 1100 shares of CCIV and will be selling them after either the announcement or before the Saudi’s can sell their shares. All of this capital will be going into DCA Tesla. Do the math, TSLA to 2Trillion then 4T is much more likely in 5-10 years than Lucid making it long term. Lucid is about to be way overvalued with many many opportunities to get back in if they do actually scale much into the decade.
@@stephensmoot8564 thanks for the perspective Stephen. I am HEAVY weighted on the side of Tesla...heavy heavy heavy but Lucid does seem like it could be a good short term play. Excited to see what happens 🤘🏻
Appreciate the criticism Rio and Ted. Educate me. CCIV on paper is nothing more than a holding company. Without rumors that they may be in talks with lucid, the company is close to worthless. Investors are investing in CCIV because they believe a merger may be announced, at that point CCIV=Lucid. Market Cap is simply, current share price x outstanding shares. If the deal goes through, CCIV will = lucid motors. So share price then becomes Lucid’s....which is directly correlated to market cap. As stated in the pinned comment, everything about this calc is very speculative but I don’t think it’s too much of a pipe dream vs how these companies are being valued in the marketplace today. You should do a valuation video, I’ll watch, interested in hearing your calc 🤙🏼 hope you got some value, or gained a different perspective from my video anyway😊
@@MikeKelleyCo No, cciv ist not equal to lucid after the merger as far as i understand. Cciv might acquire 10-20% of lucid motors. So the market cap of lucid will be 5x-10x the market cap of cciv
@@lukahinti2414 thanks Luka, guess we will see what the actual deal looks like when it goes through then we can readjust. I think what you’re saying is since Saudi PIF owns ~67% the value of the outstanding shares (if merger happens) would only represent a portion of total valuation. Is that accurate to what you are trying to say? This video is about about the market cap assigned to CCIV outstanding shares not the Enterprise Value. I agree with you. Hope you got some value from the vid anyway :) always appreciate some feedback even it’d it’s critical 🤙🏼 cheers Luka 🍺
Luka Hinti, You are correct, based on the info we have, I estimate it to be 14% therefore the SPAC market cap needs to be multiplied by approx 7x. I’m very bull on CCIV, this is basic finance.
I would file this one in the extreme speculation category, but given how the market is valuing other EV’s right now...it’s not toooo much of a pipe dream is it? What are your thoughts? Long term, what do you think Lucid will be worth 🤔
@@Parture no one knows. In all likelihood there'll be a little delay due to the new Jeddah factory being needed, but CCIV is a relatively young SPAC. To do this deal with Lucid in such a short timeframe would definitely put Churchill capital in my list for repeated SPAC investments in the future. This would be a rapid merger in the grand scheme of things, still holding my shares and hoping 🤞🤞🤞
@@randomdaveUK I just made 36% on my entire portfolio in AG. I want to switch over to CCIV, but silver is going to $50 real soon so I will make multiple times on my AG. My question to you was what do you mean by initial merger in your table? Are you referring to LOI or DA or is there another step you are referring to after after DA?
@@Parture DA announcement will be first. I think talks could run into late this week through. Looks more likely that we'll get an announcement after Lucid ads have been run at the Superbowl... Just a guess. You may have a week more in Ag, they could announce any day this week. Who knows 🤷
Thanks for the comment EV or not EV. I mention multiple times throughout the video and in the pinned comment that this is extreme speculation based on comparable EV companies. Without Lucid being public there is minimal (accurate) financial modeling we can do since the company’s financial data has not been released. Once a P&L is readily available I’ll dig into a DCF analysis, along with a few comparable margin videos to help illustrate. Thanks for the comment though, appreciate you taking the time to watch a different perspective. 🤙🏼 🍻
@@michalmaziarz8943 We need sustainable growth. Not pump and dump. GME is not exactly what we should model. Lucid is not the next Tesla. Apple may be, but definitely not Lucid.
Best comment I’ve seen on TH-cam, thanks for the love Simon glad you got some value from my analysis!!! 🤙🏼No telling what short term price action will do but in this market hype and momentum are big factors...it could double before a pullback. Not financial advice, just my opinion of how I see this playing out in the short term. Really appreciate the thoughtful comment! More videos on CCIV to come. 🍻
Dude your analysis is completely wrong. Lordstorm and Fisker have a market cap close to 5B but at current price of CCIV at $40 lucid is already valued at $60B.
Hey the Kunderbander, appreciate the comment but this entire analysis was done 15 days ago. At the time of filming those where the correct market caps. Thanks for watching 🤙🏼
@@MikeKelleyCo hey, the calculation you have shown is based on CCIV’s market cap. CCIV is just a spac and CCIV might buy between 10%-15% of Lucid. So when CCIV was at $10 NAV, lucid was already valued at $15B (assuming CCIV gets 15% of Lucid). This valuation for lucid is in the article from Bloomberg. Here is the article. #www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2021-01-11/lucid-motors-said-to-be-in-talks-to-list-via-michael-klein-spac
I can't see it getting to even 100$ They are like 2 years out from any sort of mass production. I can see a massive spike, maybe 50-80$ and then back down to 30-40$. In the end it's all just guess work.
I agree David. A LOT of hires work, so many different things that have to go right in order for the stock to take off (assuming the merger even happens in the first place). Your conservative estimate is pretty much in line with my expectations. Thanks for the thoughtful comment 🤙🏼
@@MikeKelleyCo Yup. I'm invested in cciv, heavily for me so I of course want it to do well. I'd like to see a better EV than Tesla out there because I generally just don't care for Elon or Tesla. Thank you for your work, if it hits 300 approx, I'll find a way to donate to your channel or something haha.
Hey @David abe, I like your guess. Am new and have lots of cciv shares. Wanted to sell after the merger news. Would you suggest when will be the better time to sell? I mean when you say the 50-80 spike and then a dip.
@@Leo-fn4nn I'm in your position. I'm looking to at least sell my initial investment if this hits $50, then hold the rest until it dips again. Gonna be a long run to a merger after the announcement I feel. Could get back in at $20 later on.
Well done Mike, I appreciate the effort! Looking forward to see what Lucid Motors will bring to the market (if the merger goes through).
Thanks brotha! Really appreciate the love 🚀
The fact that Lucid motors is merging with some company and we've had no news besides the CCIV rumors, that's probably good. IMO if they weren't merging with CCIV we'd have rumors of another spac merging with an EV company.
If it does happen then what is your time frame for this $335. price?
Long term...maybe 2-5 years. But in this market...momentum is taking things to the moon within weeks so who knows what will happen. SO MUCH needs to go right for the company...stay tuned for more updates. Btw, really appreciate the comment NYC vegan! I hope you got some value from the video :)
You’re working so hard! Really good explanation! Keep sharing your knowledge! ✨🚀
Thank you!!!
Great video Mike - Subscribed - The newspaper behind you - Is that a copy of the real print?
It is a reproduction of the original Boston globe paper. Thanks for the love 🤙🏼
Thanks for this, best content keep it up
Thanks Andreh!!! 🤙🏼
Great video Mike!!
Thanks mann
This can be anywhere between $150-$300+ by year end.
Good luck all cciv 🚀 🌝
🔥 🔥 🔥
Thanks for the comment Mohammed! Hope you liked the video 🤙🏼
Is the merger announcement date the LOI or DA or something else?
Excellent analysis, great video! Thank you.
Thanks Kevin! Appreciate the kind words. Cheers 🍻
Hey Brother great analysis I love what you did there I subscribe just because this analysis and because I'm very bullish on Lucid Motors hopefully the merger happens
Thanks KAL 🤘🏻🤘🏻hoping for good news soon!
I know this one is crazy, but if we assign the same valuation as TSLA to Lucid Motors, TSLA is valued at $1.6 million per Vehicle produced. Plant capacity of Lucid’s existing plant is 400,000 vehicles, which gives Lucid a total valuation of $640 billion. With only 207 millions shares outstanding, that’s a $3000 per share price. That’s just nuts!
Soooo many ways to look at this deal I agree. Really appreciate the perspective Yes WeCan! It will be interesting to see how it all plays out. Thanks for the comment 🤙🏼
Not that I would mind a 300x invest... It's highly unlikely Lucid will be able to produce let alone sell anywhere near 400k Air/Gravity models per year in the next few years. As a reference Tesla only sold 55k ~S/X models in 2020. (Granted I imagine they could nearly double that this year with the refreshed S/X vehicles) The Model 3/Y have significantly lowered the market size for vehicles (especially EVS) that are $80k+. Until Lucid at least announces a vehicle starting in the ~$40k price range and provides more information about their energy business plans, you cannot begin to even compare the financials of the two companies. That being said, I do believe the Air and Gravity will be amazing vehicles and I am excited for the company's future.
@@mikereliford55 agree on this perspective Mike. To be clear >50% of my portfolio is in TSLA. I’ve held since Oct of 2015...my conviction in Tesla’s success is about a million times more (conservatively 😆) than Lucid. TAM for lucid luxury products is much much smaller than Tesla. Just having fun on this video, trying to offer a different perspective to start a conversation. Really appreciate the comment and viewpoint Mike...dope name also haha
What's your % will.be in Lucid?
@@worldattraction81 great question world attraction, I am allocating a small percent
Would really like to see a review of ACTC / PROTERRA (also known as the Tesla of commercial vehicles). They're vertically integrated, have production, and are nicely situated as a long term buy. The warrants are 40% discount to IV 🤪
I own Tesla too as my heaviest investment so I'm good with consumer applications. I'm off to commercial + going down the supply chain to mining, recycling and other shovel plays.
Thanks as always Liarzdice! I did look into Proterra and I agree with you, very promising commercial application. Appreciate the comment! 🤘🏻next vid will be about alternative brokers to Robinhood. I think a lot of people are trying to get off the platform so I want to offer some insight. Cheers 🍻
Very interesting. They won't reach NIO levels for at least a year and that's with lots of good announcements and factory expansions ahead of schedule. NIO has government backing and protection from foreign brands but Lucid won't. Lucid has potential in the energy sector as well but that won't be happening for a few years at least. A $200 high this year is possible though if things go well. I feel like there is lots of people ready to hold the majority of their position long term.
Agree on all accounts. That’s for the comment Cyclops 🤙🏼
They will release there sedan before Nio. Nio is set for the first quarter of 2022. Nio does not own a factory of their own. Lucid finished their factory in December. In the new commercial it show how you can use your car to supply energy to your home.
This was amazing. THANK YOU
Absolutely, thank YOU for the kind comment :)
Nice work.
Thanks mahalo 🤙🏼
It's highly unlikely Lucid will be able to produce let alone sell anywhere near 400k Air/Gravity models per year in the next few years. As a reference Tesla only sold 55k ~S/X models in 2020. (Granted I imagine they could nearly double that this year with the refreshed S/X vehicles) The Model 3/Y have significantly lowered the market size for vehicles (especially EVS) that are $80k+. Until Lucid at least announces a vehicle starting in the ~$40k price range and provides more information about their energy business plans, you cannot begin to even compare the financials of the two companies. That being said, I do believe the Air and Gravity will be amazing vehicles and I am excited for the company's future.
Response in the other thread. That’s for the perspective Mike! Agree with all these points.
Mike, from your namesake, another great video.
Only legends bare the name 🤘🏻 thanks brotha! 🍺
Cool DD! Appreciate the video! I’m excited about this company! Hope the CCIV goes through!
Thanks Nate!! 🤘🏻
I’m long CCIV. And holding a $20c 2/19
But can you explain this to me. We are holding anticipating a deal. A deal that could give Lucid an enterprise value of $15B (that $15 billion is from $10 CCIV)
Let’s say they got that enterprise value with the deal. At 335/share the valuation would be like 500B
Maybe I’m not following your math vs other channels I’ve watched recently. $300/share for CCIV does seem pretty lofty though
>$300 per share is EXTREMELY speculative, I mention it a few times in the vid and in the pinned comment. The video was more/less a “what if” analysis using other manufacturers as a rough proxy. By no means do I think this company will hit over $300 per share in the near term, more of a long term estimate. Once the company is public their financial data will also be public...so then I can make a lot more accurate share price estimates...for now we’re stuck with lofty goals :) anyway, I hope you got some entertainment from the video if anything. I really appreciate the thoughtful comment William! 🤙🏼...Also important to note, Enterprise value= mkt value of debt + mkt value of equity. Market capitalization is simply the value of a company’s equity. Two completely different metrics. Sounds like you may be conflating the two, but I could have read it wrong :)
@@MikeKelleyCo thanks for the response! I was using the enterprise value to extrapolate market caps after merging. But I doubled checked my math with ipoB and the numbers I got were a little off (current market cap is 14.4B and I got 12.7B.) So I guess I need to read up a little more to derive these prices better. Not a big deal 🤝
I look forward to your updated video! But until then I’ll buckle in and wait for more information:)
@@AllRoadsLeadToYah absolutely, really appreciate the comment! I love chatting finance...and future price action speculation is always the most fun :) more updates to come 🤙🏼
Great video. Thanks for your homework.
Absolutely! Thanks for watching L Forrest
What's your thoughts now? I'd appreciate your current feedback . Thank you for all your DD bro💎
Good analysis
Thanks Taha! Feels so good to get kind comments like this! Glad you enjoyed it 🤙🏼
Great video and dd!
Thanks as always Tim! You’re the man 🍻
Nice vid mike, I could see a ridiculous pump happening after the announcement.
Thanks brotha!!! 🤙🏼
@@MikeKelleyCo Holy smokes 7.7k views in 24 hours! Nice man, keep it up 👍
@@YoSepher thanks bruh! This one turned out well! Thanks for the love 🤙🏼
@@MikeKelleyCo Always bruh
got 50 quid on cciv, i believe in the stonks
also to clarify not from this video as it is not financial advice
@@bruce_on_the_loose that is correct! Thank you so much for the comment Bruce! Hopefully you enjoyed the entertainment value of the video :)
Should’nt you just look at TSLA, NIO, and XPEV’s valuation per vehicle produced? Lucid is also planning on making battery packs.
Yea, as I mentioned there are a ton of different angles to look at this and try and value the company. You bring up a great point Yes WeCan. Mkt Cap or Enterprise Value vs vehicles delivered is another great approach. I will dig into a more in depth valuation once I have financial data. I’d like to do a DCF or look at EV/Sales multiples vs others in the industry. Appreciate the thoughtful comment 🤙🏼
I think that Lucid is also going into the energy storage bisiness.
You’re right Michal. That was a little oversight on my part but I still think Tesla and Lucid are not good comparables for market cap purposes. Different TAM they are targeting...luxury vs mass market. Appreciate the comment 🤘🏻
@@MikeKelleyCo Hi! Look at what price Tesla is selling most of their vehicles. More expensive make more money for a company as you pay for extras. Lucid is planning to have something in high 30 K down the road but their primary market is luxury. Battery technology is the key factor.
Well at this point it does look like heading to triple digits CCIV in a month could be 200 EOY for sure and even higher, any ways Thanks!
Absolutely A Z! Hope you liked the DD 🤙🏼
im watching in korea ^^ thanks for information
Welcome :) appreciate the kind words!! Hope you enjoyed ✌🏼
Can you really see it going that high? Being that their vehicles are so expensive? Can we really picture many Lucid cars on the road in the future being that it is out of most people's price range? No sarcasm this is an honest question
Great questions Kiam! Only the future knows what will happen. I mention many times throughout the video and in the pinned comment that this is a VERY speculative valuation. But based on how the market is pricing some of these deals...who knows what could happen 🤔 really appreciate the thoughtful comment!!
@@MikeKelleyCo thank you for the data
@@kgraham2317 absolutely!!! :)
I agree, at this point they are a boutique EV Co. Great timing to come to market for sure but the only comparison to TSLA would be to the Model S and it’s sales potential. Lucid is copying them in many ways and really just picking up crumbs. Not that anyone cares but I have 1100 shares of CCIV and will be selling them after either the announcement or before the Saudi’s can sell their shares. All of this capital will be going into DCA Tesla. Do the math, TSLA to 2Trillion then 4T is much more likely in 5-10 years than Lucid making it long term. Lucid is about to be way overvalued with many many opportunities to get back in if they do actually scale much into the decade.
@@stephensmoot8564 thanks for the perspective Stephen. I am HEAVY weighted on the side of Tesla...heavy heavy heavy but Lucid does seem like it could be a good short term play. Excited to see what happens 🤘🏻
Just picked up 4 shares a moment ago
Thanks for the comment king! Hope you enjoyed the video 🤙🏼
What motivates me is Tesla’s share price last year on Feb 1st.... that’s all.
Lets gooooo Marcus!!!! 🤘🏻
You're making a huge mistake... The market cap of the SPAC and the market cap of the merged company are two very different things.
He is useless, LOL!
Appreciate the criticism Rio and Ted. Educate me. CCIV on paper is nothing more than a holding company. Without rumors that they may be in talks with lucid, the company is close to worthless. Investors are investing in CCIV because they believe a merger may be announced, at that point CCIV=Lucid. Market Cap is simply, current share price x outstanding shares. If the deal goes through, CCIV will = lucid motors. So share price then becomes Lucid’s....which is directly correlated to market cap. As stated in the pinned comment, everything about this calc is very speculative but I don’t think it’s too much of a pipe dream vs how these companies are being valued in the marketplace today. You should do a valuation video, I’ll watch, interested in hearing your calc 🤙🏼 hope you got some value, or gained a different perspective from my video anyway😊
@@MikeKelleyCo No, cciv ist not equal to lucid after the merger as far as i understand. Cciv might acquire 10-20% of lucid motors. So the market cap of lucid will be 5x-10x the market cap of cciv
@@lukahinti2414 thanks Luka, guess we will see what the actual deal looks like when it goes through then we can readjust. I think what you’re saying is since Saudi PIF owns ~67% the value of the outstanding shares (if merger happens) would only represent a portion of total valuation. Is that accurate to what you are trying to say? This video is about about the market cap assigned to CCIV outstanding shares not the Enterprise Value. I agree with you. Hope you got some value from the vid anyway :) always appreciate some feedback even it’d it’s critical 🤙🏼 cheers Luka 🍺
Luka Hinti, You are correct, based on the info we have, I estimate it to be 14% therefore the SPAC market cap needs to be multiplied by approx 7x. I’m very bull on CCIV, this is basic finance.
Lucid is doing energy sector.
I would file this one in the extreme speculation category, but given how the market is valuing other EV’s right now...it’s not toooo much of a pipe dream is it? What are your thoughts? Long term, what do you think Lucid will be worth 🤔
Is the merger announcement date the LOI or DA or something else?
How long is it from the Jan. 11 Bloomberg article to IPO, DA, Merger agreement, and the final Merger?
@@Parture no one knows.
In all likelihood there'll be a little delay due to the new Jeddah factory being needed, but CCIV is a relatively young SPAC. To do this deal with Lucid in such a short timeframe would definitely put Churchill capital in my list for repeated SPAC investments in the future. This would be a rapid merger in the grand scheme of things, still holding my shares and hoping 🤞🤞🤞
@@randomdaveUK I just made 36% on my entire portfolio in AG. I want to switch over to CCIV, but silver is going to $50 real soon so I will make multiple times on my AG. My question to you was what do you mean by initial merger in your table? Are you referring to LOI or DA or is there another step you are referring to after after DA?
@@Parture DA announcement will be first. I think talks could run into late this week through. Looks more likely that we'll get an announcement after Lucid ads have been run at the Superbowl... Just a guess.
You may have a week more in Ag, they could announce any day this week. Who knows 🤷
you missed GIK (elightning motors)
Great point Giulio!!! Thanks for reminding me! I knew there were a few I was missing! Hope you enjoyed the vid :)
$355/share cannot happen. Period. I own CCIV shares, but please be realistic.
Thanks for the comment EV or not EV. I mention multiple times throughout the video and in the pinned comment that this is extreme speculation based on comparable EV companies. Without Lucid being public there is minimal (accurate) financial modeling we can do since the company’s financial data has not been released. Once a P&L is readily available I’ll dig into a DCF analysis, along with a few comparable margin videos to help illustrate. Thanks for the comment though, appreciate you taking the time to watch a different perspective. 🤙🏼 🍻
Why not? We are talking about market on steroids. If Game Stop can get to 500 anything can happen...
People are looking for the next Tesla!
@@michalmaziarz8943 We need sustainable growth. Not pump and dump. GME is not exactly what we should model.
Lucid is not the next Tesla. Apple may be, but definitely not Lucid.
@@korswe Lucid is Apple. Apple will purchase Lucid this year
Best stock price analysis Ive seen on youtube so far. Just a rough guess, how high do you think cciv will go up before a major pullback?
Best comment I’ve seen on TH-cam, thanks for the love Simon glad you got some value from my analysis!!! 🤙🏼No telling what short term price action will do but in this market hype and momentum are big factors...it could double before a pullback. Not financial advice, just my opinion of how I see this playing out in the short term. Really appreciate the thoughtful comment! More videos on CCIV to come. 🍻
Great valuation analysis.
Thanks Kazi!!! Really appreciate the love!! 🤙🏼
like your number crunching.....Follow buttom pressed.
Thanks Kenneth! Hopefully gained a new perspective from the video! Welcome to the team 🤙🏼 🚀
@@MikeKelleyCo Sure did, im allready in CCIV but only with a small amount... but still in :)
@@sehested72 good luck! Today was a great day 🚀
Dude your analysis is completely wrong. Lordstorm and Fisker have a market cap close to 5B but at current price of CCIV at $40 lucid is already valued at $60B.
Hey the Kunderbander, appreciate the comment but this entire analysis was done 15 days ago. At the time of filming those where the correct market caps. Thanks for watching 🤙🏼
@@MikeKelleyCo hey, the calculation you have shown is based on CCIV’s market cap. CCIV is just a spac and CCIV might buy between 10%-15% of Lucid. So when CCIV was at $10 NAV, lucid was already valued at $15B (assuming CCIV gets 15% of Lucid). This valuation for lucid is in the article from Bloomberg. Here is the article. #www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2021-01-11/lucid-motors-said-to-be-in-talks-to-list-via-michael-klein-spac
I can't see it getting to even 100$ They are like 2 years out from any sort of mass production. I can see a massive spike, maybe 50-80$ and then back down to 30-40$. In the end it's all just guess work.
I agree David. A LOT of hires work, so many different things that have to go right in order for the stock to take off (assuming the merger even happens in the first place). Your conservative estimate is pretty much in line with my expectations. Thanks for the thoughtful comment 🤙🏼
@@MikeKelleyCo Yup. I'm invested in cciv, heavily for me so I of course want it to do well. I'd like to see a better EV than Tesla out there because I generally just don't care for Elon or Tesla.
Thank you for your work, if it hits 300 approx, I'll find a way to donate to your channel or something haha.
Haha much appreciated man. I’m long here as well...only calls for the moment though. Hope you enjoyed the video! Maybe added some level of value 🤙🏼 🍻
Hey @David abe, I like your guess. Am new and have lots of cciv shares. Wanted to sell after the merger news. Would you suggest when will be the better time to sell? I mean when you say the 50-80 spike and then a dip.
@@Leo-fn4nn I'm in your position. I'm looking to at least sell my initial investment if this hits $50, then hold the rest until it dips again. Gonna be a long run to a merger after the announcement I feel. Could get back in at $20 later on.
We not supporting anything but AMC right now.
😆😆😆😆
Please jesus
0-100
Just like Tesla, think hype can drive this up further
Lets gooooo!!! Agreed Sulliez 🤙🏼